« Cara’s Bull Board, Thurs., Apr. 12, 2007, 7:08 AM | Main | Cara’s Bull Board, Fri., Apr. 13, 2007, 6:58 AM »
April 12, 2007
Exec pay and why Autodesk is no longer a Cara 100, Thurs., Apr. 12, 2007, 1:47 PM
When you read articles like this about Steve Jobs, you’ll see why I would never have one of his companies in the Cara 100.
That is the segue into why Autodesk (ADSK) is being turfed today from the Cara 100. As I wrote a couple days ago, As I see it, Carol Bartz has ripped off the shareholders with her unconscionable compensation plan, and the Autodesk stock buy-back plan is aiding and abetting her deal. In good conscience, I cannot support an employed manager getting paid $80 million a year for each of the past two years.
These people may think they are one of a kind, but let me remind traders that they are operators of a public company, not a personal fiefdom.
In case you want to check the record, Bartz was paid over 5 times the average S&P 500 company CEO compensation, including GE’s Jeff Immelt who clocks in at a two-year average of about $17 million.
To check these numbers you can go to the website at AFL-CIO.
A better bet for me is a company that has grown remarkably fast in the past couple years since their IPO. The Company, under the capable management of Sheldon Adelson, is Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), but the sandcastles they are building that impress me most are the magnificent cash-generating ones in Macau, China.
In addition to solid management, the Las Vegas Sands Company is financially strong. I like the Altman’s Z-Score Ratio of 4.38 and Tobin’s Q Ratio of 4.30. With all the heavy capital development, the gearing ratio is just 2.00. And the interest cover is 4.7 times.
Yes, the LVS PE is too high (after all, the ROE is 21.3) and the stock has run from ~40 to almost $110 during 2006 (with the peak reached in Jan-07), but I’m not looking to buy at today’s price of $86.13. I’ll be patient and let the stock come to me a little more.
I love the Las Vegas Sands operating margins: the gross profit margin is 48.4 pct and the pre-tax net is 22.5 pct. For a high cash turn-over business, this is like Humungous Bank & Broker.
What brought Las Vegas Sands to mind? I was watching the very successful fund manager Ken Heebner being interviewed on Bloomberg a few minutes ago. My research on Heebner pointed me to a Kiplinger.com article entitled, “The Saviest Stock Picker in America”. Here’s a paragraph of the printed interview:
What's the common thread in your approach to stock picking? I look for fundamental developments that will cause a stock to significantly outperform the market. So I look for companies that will surprise on the upside. One holding with these characteristics is Las Vegas Sands. It's run by Sheldon Adelson, who had been in the convention business, sold it and developed the Venetian Casino in Las Vegas. When the Chinese took over Macau from Portugal, they opened it up to investment, and Adelson became the leading gaming developer there. What Las Vegas Sands did differently is make a deal to take over the Cotai Strip and fill in a huge swamp for the space to build eight casinos. Sands will develop casinos, shopping malls, condos and hotels. Profits from the sale of the condos, malls and hotels will finance the casinos. Analysts estimate that Sands will earn $2.88 a share in '08. It will probably be much higher. The Chinese love to gamble, and if you want a direct play on the growth of Asian wealth, this is the stock.
So Adelson knows gaming and he knows convention centers and he knows Macau – every inch. And he knows that there will soon be developed in the adjacent Chinese city of Zhuhai the world’s largest convention center complex. I hear that the total developed value will be something like $25 billion. My friend Michael Wong will be an architect. He is also senior urban planning consultant to both Zhuhai and Macau. You might say that he knows what’s going to be happening to the casino business in Macau (already larger that Las Vegas btw) when that Zhuhai complex is finished.
I cannot overstress the need to get into these deals early, but long-term traders have a need to get in sooner than later. With me, I look at price series motion, and this is just not the right time. Right company; right geography; right reasons. But, that’s just enough to get the Las Vegas Sands put onto the Cara Global 100 Best Companies list.
The rest is up to you.
Las Vegas Sands [GICS 25, Cara 100]
No position at present. But if you recall these words on June 16, 2005 in my blogging against online gaming (and in support of the regulated industry), LVS was just $38.50. I believe I wrote up LVS on another ocassion, but cannot locate the file in the archives.
The U.S. has a very strong casinos and gaming industry (GICS 2530). I have written it up in the past; and, at the appropriate time, I will even recommend stocks like LVS. So, please don't take me for an opponent.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 12, 2007 01:47:55 PM | Category: Cara Global 100 Best Companies
Discourse
But John Arnold is a trader. He contracts with the owners of capital to trade in ways they understand and authorize. If they don't like it, they walk with their capital. So, unless there was any funny stuff between John Arnold and Amaranth's Brian Hunter, I cannot see how one could think negatively. His trading desk is, in my own words, his "personal fiefdom".
The Autodesk Chairperson (Bartz) is running a shareholder-owned corporation (99 pct owned by outsiders) like her own fiefdom, and that's not right.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
April 12, 2007 2:23 PM [link]
I don't know what Arnold knew, but IMO, a number of traders that profited enormously from the Amaranth fiasco may have had "information" that gave them the confidence in that trade. I'm not naming names, but I'm fairly sure that some prop desk traders (for example) had the best year of their careers and would say that the trade was a "lay-up" due to what they knew that we didn't. I'm purely speculating of course.
Posted by: g034
at
April 12, 2007 2:40 PM [link]
And here I was worried that my "personal fiefdom" was growing too big. I have a way to go to get to 2 billion. Just have to keep pluging away.
Posted by: Horatio
at
April 12, 2007 2:49 PM [link]
Horatio,
I wouldn't feel left out. There are tens of millions of fairly active traders, but apparently just one John Arnold.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
April 12, 2007 3:28 PM [link]
In a dog-eat-dog world, it is unfortunate that the dog-keepers (SEC) are also dogs! This sort of thing will keep dogging us until big investors/shareholders like CalPERS revolt in a meaningful way.
Martin Goldberg had an interesting article on FSO. It had to do with the turnover in stocks--meaning stocks were turned over numerous times--an example was that Cisco's trading volume had it's shares turnover 2x per year.
My standard answer to executive pay is that it is a shareholder issue to resolve. However, it occurs to me that we've moved from an era of investors to traders. Black boxes are moving prices in waves and hanger-ons either surf in the wake or get beaten down by the wave.
Perhaps there is lack of accountability for there is no one to be accountable to? The investor today is not going to be the investor tomorrow. I'm beginning to have a healthier respect for these hedge funds that take a stake and lay down the law.
Don't insult dogs! They exceed humans in every way that really counts.
1. loyalty and 2. vigilance, neither of which we can hope for the SEC.
Posted by: Craig
at
April 12, 2007 8:20 PM [link]
Telestar3d - Just to thank you for yesterday's post 12 guidelines for buying gold stocks. Not actually the study I meant (which was a PDF from a bank or consultant) but VERY useful in any event.
Jock
Posted by: Jock
at
April 12, 2007 10:06 PM [link]
Great synopsis of CEO compensation. I also agree that LVS is poised for a move up. After Kerkorian walked out on GM he invested his time and money into MGM. So I am sure that he sees the opportunity and growth ahead in that industry.
I know that this isn't the right spot, but what do you make of the euro holding 1.35 against the dollar, oil up $2 and gold not taking off to the upside. Are these correlations false?
By the way, can you tell me how to get more than 24 hours out of a day? It seems that you are researching and writing 28-30 hours a day.
Posted by: darvas
at
April 12, 2007 10:07 PM [link]
Dear Bill and Co,
I had to bring my cat Honeybear to the vet this morning for a pre-arranged appointment. I could see weakness in KRY and determined to enter an auto-execute order at 4.03 should the price drop from 4.21 or wherever it was.
Just as I arrived home from the vet I saw what a mistake I'd made not following my little voice and putting another order at 3.76, which I actually thought about doing but didn't. Then I realized That loading up the boat seemed the thing to do, and it was, as price powered up from ten cents to twenty on strong, professional buying. I just wonder why it is that whenever I leave the house durng market, it always seems like a mistake. Thank God there is no golf weather so far...
Chris Hunter
Posted by: shark_attack
at
April 12, 2007 10:10 PM [link]
dollar just fell through 82, wont hold a 8 handle by memorial day
Posted by: Rick45
at
April 12, 2007 10:35 PM [link]
are u joking, Calpers is in huge trouble noting all the GSE's, CDO's, and other housing crap they and the rest of the pensions hold ( disc. I pulled out my Calpers equity last year). I havnt checked the IB's lately but financials have clearly broken down.
Posted by: Rick45
at
April 12, 2007 10:43 PM [link]
I was away from the market most of the day myself. I now see that a lot of dogs were set loose today. A lot of very, very smelly dogs.
Woof!
Posted by: number2son
at
April 12, 2007 10:57 PM [link]
G7 finance ministers and central bankers meet tomorrow in D.C. Expect some upward pressure on the yen as Japanese products have an advantage especially in Europe where the euro reached recent record highs vs. yen. Reuters points out last year around this time, the dollar "tumbled 7 percent against the yen" within a month after the G7 meet.
Dollar is down across the board right now vs. major currncies in the $USD index.
Many have returned to the carry trade disgarding the risks and taking advantage of strong yielding currencies like the NZD and $AUS. However, this could turn back on them over the next month or so.
Posted by: Seamus
at
April 12, 2007 11:22 PM [link]
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)
Bill. This compensation blows away all the others.
http://www.globefund.com/servlet/story/GFGAM.20070412.RARNOLD12/GFStory/
Posted by: Horatio
at
April 12, 2007 2:09 PM [link]