no wonder the yen is weak

carry trade spreading to japanese households / retail investors

plus the final episode from

the "kung fu master" :-) in china

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

have a nice day

The RSI7 values for the NKE are incorrect. It was split yesterday too. I keep track of the RSI7 values for your Cara 100 but how do I correctly calculate the RSI for the split stock?

Bill,

Not to be repetitive on this, but the housing market's inpact on the economy is not about volume but about prices. The Pending Home Sales Index is put out by the National Assoc of Realtors to indicate market activity ( i.e. volume of sales transaction acceptances by sellers ) and the sell side will use this index to indicate that increased volume is good, and a positive economic indicator. But is it? My thinking is that the selling prices of recorded but un-closed deals are down sharply. This translates into falling family net worth and reduced buying power when purchasing another home or spending elsewhere in the economy. We must determine our actions based on price, not volume.

Earnings estimates have already been lowered sufficiently by the analysts. If we all sit back, we'll be entertained to a good "beating estimates" show and commensurate rallies! Bar is lower...

Hi Bill,

I met you at PDAC and at the time gave you my best pick from what I had seen. It was Geologix (GIX.V) and to me was a no brainer. I still have that opinion and thought I would share it with your readers.

- San Augustin in Mexico has previous large drill intercepts that are open at depth including 184 m @ 1.74 g/t Au and 199 g/t Ag ending in mineralisation.

- Press Release yesterday announced 274 m at 1.70 g/t Au equivalent

- They have expanded the extent of potential for this orebody through trenching and limited drilling. Some assay results still pending and further drilling in progress.

- Good potential for their Huacullo property in Peru.

- I don't think much of their Nevada properties, but I believe they are farming them out.

- Only 36 million shares fully diluted.

The stock took off yesterday with the most recent announcement but I still think it is very cheap. Geologix have a very good presentation on their site Geologix.ca.

I would be very interested in hearing what others think about this company. I would especially appreciate Kaimu's appraisal in comparison to CNU.V or some of the other stocks he has mentioned.

Disclosure - Long GIX.V and CNU.V and long many other PM stocks including KRY.

gold 673!!!!!!

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=963

Another view on yesterday's housing report.

Hi All,

Rob McEwen is going to be on BNN today at 10:40 am, also

I am not an expert, but after watching the gold movement for the past few days/weeks, I just have a huch that gold will be up 20+ today.

Hi rsi7.com,
to calculate the rsi for a split stock, first adjust the price history of the stock for the split (e.g. for 2 for 1 split, divide all old prices by 2). Then calculate RSI the usual way.

KRY rebuttal posted today - some good points.

http://gold.seekingalpha.com/article/31517

That pending sales number is dubious at best. Moreover, the NAR and its enablers in the financial media highlighted the MoM increase while downplaying the YoY decrease. Ironically, it was Lereah himself who said people ought to pay attention to the YoY trend, not the monthly.

In any case, mortgage applications are down again this week.

Carlos Slim, AT&T, a coming upset for the Forbes "rich list" ? ....

Is the world's (relatively unknown) 3rd richest man about to overtake Warren Buffett for the number 2 slot?

Yesterday's Financial Times reported that a successful bid by Slim (America Movil) with AT&T for Telecom Italia should allow Slim to become BRAZIL's largest wireless operator! He would combine his existing Brazil operation with Telecom Italia's and thus take his Brazil EBITDA margin from 35% to over 40%. FT ranked Brazil as the world's 5th largest mobile market.

BTW, FT reports of Slim holding meetings in the dank basement of his house are true. Also, I remember SBC (now AT&T) trying to impress Slim with their technology. Slim was much more interested in the ad rates commanded by SBC's yellow pages, and the potential for TELMEX yellow pages, which he (and we -SBC- ) were in the process of acquiring.

TELMEX (arguably the world's most rapacious large telecoms monopoly) was a great deal for SBC; but for Slim, TMX made him the world's 3rd richest man, and may have positioned him to surpass Warren Buffett! Slim may be a better businessman than Buffett or Gates!

Ironic for such wealth to emerge from a country where millions have to emigrate to feed their families !

BUCY
http://tinyurl.com/ypyfgq

Anyone have thoughts on this interesting service provider to mines?

I belong to a top down oriented premium alert service. (fwiw...I've followed this provider for over a year..risk averse..no hype kind of guy.) He obviously recognizes PM and energy as a strong sector. For a number of weeks he and his partner put me into CNQ and SUN. And, frankly, due to Bill's influence I took full positions. Today they issued a new related alert. It seems to make a lot of sense, but I only took half a position due to its recent spike.

From MS:Bucyrus International designs, manufactures, and markets draglines, electric mining shovels, and rotary blasthole drills used in the surface mining of commodities such as coal, copper, and oil sands. About 65% of sales are aftermarket parts and services for these machines. Bucyrus estimates its installed base of machinery at $13 billion, spread throughout the world. Bucyrus is based near its primary manufacturing facility in Milwaukee, Wis.

Jasper--BUCY is a terrific company. I owned it last year. Very volatile stock, though. Be careful with your stop losses....I stopped using stop losses after this stock seemed to coincidently hit my stop loss and move upward.

When listening to any earnings reports, be sure to pay attention to the backlog. I had them on a watch list and saw that their stock was down about $2.50 but their press released noted a whopping increase in backlog. Cognitive dissonance between the market and the value. I bought it and in 15 minutes (when the conference call started) the stock rocketed up about $6. Their fate rises and falls with JOYG. BUCY is a little less known.

Good luck

In the past year, every time the PM mining group has had the majority of its big players hit a daily RSI(7) above 70, there has been a correction within a week. We are within 1 to 3 trading days of the point where a correction would typically occur.

GFI, GG, KGC, HMY, PAAS, SLW, ABX, AU, and a few more are either at or above 70, and have been for 1 to 3 days.

Does anyone have else think it may be time to sell some shares and wait for a pull back to buy-in again?

Helene Meisler still looking for a rally, and offers the possibility that a bond-friendly report on
Good Friday (stock market closed) may juice the market next week.

http://tinyurl.com/2pzo69

rob d,

Thanks for the link. That article points to another one:

http://gold.seekingalpha.com/article/31377

10th paragraphs states:

"Reuters, in commenting on the Crystallex press release several hours later, stood by its reporting going so far as to state that they had tape recorded the discussion with Mr. Rodriguez..."

At least I am not losing (all of) my mental faculties.

Leisa,

Re BUCY...little did I think that this would be a company that you had owned...stupid first impressions. I'll check out the other bigger peer company. THANKS. fwiw, i just hit my prior account balance high. No matter how much I rotate my positions, this almost aways point to a reversal. Fazeli, above, may have a point.

Rob McEwen was on BNN earlier. You can view it at the following link:
http://www.bnn.ca/servlet/HTMLTemplate/!robVideo/robtv0726.20070404.00049000-00049743-clip3/h/220asf

After watching Mr. McEwen I take great comfort in the fact that I will be a 3 times richer in only 3 years when gold hits $2,000. Thanks Rob.

Jasper "Re BUCY...little did I think that this would be a company that you had owned...stupid first impressions."

I'm not sure quite what to make out of the above!?

not surprised that Carlos Slim being the 3rd richest man - I bought his company's stock, TMX before the split to TMX & AMX, some years back. It's been a home run, up some 14 folds. I still hold both.

ALOHA !!

Aussieontop ... what exactly is it you bloody Aussies think you're "on top" of?

I will look at Geologix and get back to you later. I do know it was a Peter Grandich pick last year and he has been big on them ever since, so I have heard of them.

I am currently making plans to visit Australia and New Zealand in Jan 2008. I will be going to Perth, West Australia, which is where I lived for four years and went to "Uni" ... I will also be in Sydney(Bondi)as well. I am planning to meet up with some of my mining contacts in Perth while I am there as well as old friends ... perhaps I'll even throw in a bloody "pub crawl" or two! I'll also stop in at the Perth Mint ... I'll do ya one better mate and go down to Margaret River for some "surf lessons"! Oh yeah ... "surf lessons" ... that's where this Hawaiian Haole teaches you bloody piss poor Aussies how to ride a wave I rekon! Do me a favor and just give the "River" locals proper notice not to be in the lineup when "The Hawaiian Eye" gets there!!! YAH ... Good on ya mate!!! TA !!! My regards to Bazza ...

Leisa...just that you are more diverse than a scholar of subprime loans...and, I think like me,but what do i know?, prone to being in cash when in doubt. An emotional aside.. Wow, I'm making good money today. When my hands are doing the dance of mr. greedy, mr fear can't be far behind.
I just checked some earlier notes from Bill. Aurelian Resources up big today, as well as yesterday on another uranium play, Urasia.

As another aside, some of these canadian symbols get confusing on my fidelity platform and, consequently, I tend to not consider them actionable and may be missing opportunity.

Leisa & jasper--I've followed JOYG and can vouch for the volatility. I'd add LAYN to BUCY & JOYG as a similar business; perhaps their water drilling for municipalities makes it less volatile than it's mineral exploration work. No positions at this time. Over the last year looking at a yahoo comparison chart, LAYN is up @ 35%, BUCY @ 9%, and JOYG @ -28%. Interesting to see the divergence by JOYG.

Fazeli-SLW on my chart is under 70 RSI7 (66.1). The weekly and monthly are in their 50's. I'm retaining position. On the other hand, HL is in the 70's across the board and has my cautious eye.
(Long SLW & HL) I'm thinking SLW may outperform HL over the next month while it catches up (IMHO)

Uranium at $95. USU getting frothy with the daily RSI 7 right around 80. Retaining a small Long position at this time, but also watching for break in trend or melt up opportunity to sell.

Jasper--thanks for explaining! You know, if I can take offense I will! (g)

To be fair, I've not followed BUCY/JOYG for a while, so I'm not very familiar with their numbers now.

Regarding Geologix - does anyone know if they have an OTC symbol?

Fazeli -- With SLW's move today (so far) the daily RSI 7 will be 70 soon on my chart too!

Silver miners as of 1:00 p.m.

SLW + 3.3%
HL + 0.3%
SSRI + 2.7%
PAAS + 2.9%

Fazeli--

I've been thinking about taking some profits off the table in the PMs as well. But GLD is breaking out and we don't want to miss the boat do we?

In bull markets RSIs can go well over 70. In bear markets RSIs can go well below 30.

Long PM

Kaimu,

Aussieontop refers to the fact that I am no longer down under. I have been working in North America for the last 2 years, hence the on top.

Having an absolute ball over here but having a hard time adjusting to the snow and cold weather. I spent the last 12 out of the last 16 years living in Perth and so know very well of what you are talking about. Still have the house there and hope to return some day. I sometimes miss the beach, sun and good cold beer. Managing to survive and get emergency supplies of Vegemite sent over every now and then.

Bazza, Macca, Kev and Bruce all say G'day

Cheers Mate

siguy,

pinksheets.com gives GXEXF for Geologix Expl.

hbling

ALOHA !!

Bill ... if Collin Twigg is right, as well as many others, along with the likes of Jim Sinclair then when the POG hits $2000USD that will absolutely sink companies like Barrick(ABX)holding large hedge books. No wonder they want to buy out "non-hedged" companies like NovaGold instead of "super hedgers" like Placer Dome! I believe Barrick must be owned by the US Federal Reserve Bank ...

Aussieontop ... Good on ya mate! Another Perthie ... I lived in Nedlands four houses down from Steve's Pub(Uni hangout)! My nextdoor neighbor was none other than Meg Sheen the infamous "Queen Of The Hutt River Province"!! Anyone interested in seeing what you're up against when you seceed from a country and declare yourself sovereign take a look at the history of the "Hutt River Province" ...

Link: http://www.hutt-river.org/history.htm

Riding the speculative bubble on a simulated roller coaster video that actually maps to the inflation adjusted real-estate graph that I think kaimu posted awhile back.

http://www.speculativebubble.com/videos/real-estate-roller-coaster.php

Base metals and general mining have outperformed PMs... if I read correctly %gains on Fidelity's chart page.
For past two months:
DBB (base metals)14+%
xme(general mining) 10%
trailing:
GDX (gold mining) 2.5%
GLD .............2%

Longerterm, one yr, US Steel's growth makes gold/gld look like a flat line.

Unlike others who claim to be an amateur, I really am. Is this commodity comparison of any signficance to future price potential of PMs? My thinking is that the growth of base metal commodities reflects an increase in global wealth, much of it to an increasing middle class, wishful thinking?, in less developed countries who will want gold. Current run up in the gold miners is not going to last forever, so I'm thinking as to how much I will hold onto as a longerterm investment.

Fellow posters here must be accustomed to across the board gains. I'm not and feeling a little manic. Sun had a huge finish, not to mention all of bill's references to mining stocks(slw) or...just using an etf/gdx. My thanks to the board and to Bill...ps...no big positions taken, still a lot of cash, and quite pleased. Every morning, Bill gives us an unbelievable insight into what is unfolding. It's like getting paid to watch a serial epic movie. My computer has never been so interesting. Next week I travel and will be largely unwired. Oye Vey.

Jasper
It seems to me that the strength you have seen in the base metals and general mining is a function of the growth in developing countries (BRIC,etc) that are now bidding up the price of the materials that they need.
There is growing industrial demand for some of the PMs that are used in technology, etc, but obviously not for AU, particularly.
I believe PM values are only related to the dynamic of industrial demand through wealth creation.
Gold has historic resonance to the people of these countries. They and/or their ancestors have witnessed how this store of value has been an effective hedge against dishonest governments and inflation.
It is we westerners who are finally (and ever so slowly) coming around to this perspective.
Based, unfortunately, on the behavior of our own governments and the debasement of our own currency. A new concept to many, amazingly.
All commodities that exist on this planet are ultimately finite. "They ain't making any more of them" (W. Rogers), or at least not fast enough to make a difference.
Contrary to what you have supposed, I believe demand for physical gold is strongest in these developing countries.
As for base metals and other industrial materials continued demand for these requires robust growth and demand from both emerging and developed economies and the signs are that the biggest customer of all (that's us) is going broke.

Rigdon, Yes, I do agree that developing countries are a major source of demand pressure on gold. Infact, in the late 90's I bought into this concept vis a vis a well known mutual that got into big legal trouble for failing to deliver. 1998 was a false start for the BRIC countries. More recently, I'm amazed though at how the base metals have done even better than PMs. For the latter to catch up, I wonder if the comparison of the two points to a short term move of 10 more percent????? But, I assume that your take is that the comparison is irrelevant.BM is based on growth and PM based on fear/security.

Jasper
I should have added, if you are going to hang around Bill's blog, you need to get comfortable with prosperity!
Have a great trip.

Bingo

http://tinyurl.com/2z8p4r
Admittingly I may not be using the cara 100 as intended, but when I look at what is moving up and still looks under valued, TCK looks like a candidate.Tommorrow morning I'm going to see what Fidelity's research reports has. At a glance, I wonder why it has not moved up as much as other companies in the mining and energy sector. I would certainly be interested in anyone's commentary. (Today, now counting after hrs, 3 billcara related positions were over 3%(sun,slv,and mu) while the general mkt slacked off. I can tell my wife that even though I 'm retired that I have a new job, reading this blog. Ok, I'm going to mow the grass and calm down. No more wow.

Kaimu,

Thanks for the link to Hutt River. Fascinating read! I'm off to buy some coins and stamps from Hutt on eBay.

http://cgi.ebay.com/Hutt-River-20-Pearl-Harbor-WW2-USS-Arizona-gold-plate_W0QQitemZ180102221593QQcategoryZ3441QQcmdZViewItem

Reminds me of an Aussie movie I watched a couple of months ago...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Who_Sued_God

Bill, Leisa et al,

Should have taken your advice on LEND. :(

on another topic,

Is anyone here using Canadian Shareowner Investments to purchase ETFs?

http://www.investments.shareowner.com/

Co-Operative Buying

Single Security. Order as much or as little as you like of a single security, using a convenient dollar amount, and pay a commission of only $9.
Commission is charged in the currency of the trade.

Portfolio of Securities. Order as much or as little as you like, of as many securities as you like, using convenient dollar amount, and pay a commission of only $36.
Commission is charged in Canadian dollars.

The co-op trading program looks interesting for beginning investors.

"For example, one week of orders to buy or sell Home Depot shares are accumulated and combined into a single Co-Op trade, every Thursday. The somewhat less-popular shares of Johnson & Johnson are traded once a month – on the fourth Wednesday."

OT: Big brains please!
My ten year old daughter has asked my wife and I why we are in the 21st century if the date is 2007. Shouldn't it be the 20th century?

stktrader,

I believe that this is the case because when the AD dating began one would have to say they were in the first century even though the year was say 50 AD. You couldn't say the 0 century. So, when the next century began in say 105 AD people would call this the second century.... and so forth up till 2007 and the 21st century.

Stktrader--not that eric d didn't explain it well, but to put it in 10 year old speak----she wasn't considered to be 1 (or 10 years) year old until she had already had a year (or 10 years) under her belt and was on her way to 2 (or 11).

Be grateful for this question. During the Clinton/Lewinsky lynching my daughter asked me what oral sex was. I'm just glad my daughter felt comfortable enough to ask.

Thanks Eric and Leisa. My wife and I are not looking forward to the sex questions. The school gives a boys and girls separate discussion probably from a biological point of view.