Bill,

This quote from you resonated against a speaker I heard on FSO.

Your quote:

"The details say this market is only going higher because of share buy-backs and higher dividends, which has little to do with creating asset value."

FSO had Doug Noland as their second hour guest. Something Doug said really struck me, and dovetails nicely with your comment above. That is, that so much wealth is being created through financial arbitrage (think carry trade, credit default swaps etc). This is wealth that is not creating any real asset value as you note above.

To me, it seems like we have financial "ether". I'm not sure that I'm clever enough to understand all of the implications, if there are indeed any. But intuitively, (and I recognize that is a fact-free zone!), it seems that wealth created from ether can evaporate into a black hole.

Righto, Leisa!

I suspect that ether-created wealth can disappear into ether a Black Hole -- or Thin Air.

Interactivebrokers IPO Link for those who are interested:

http://ipo.interactivebrokers.com/

It usually gets sucked into something like a Gold Man or a Black Rock.

"New-home sales inch higher in March"

http://tinyurl.com/2q5z2n

That's the headline from MarketWatch. And it is TOTALLY misleading.

Indeed, new home sales were only 858K, seasonally adjusted. That's considerably less than the market's expectation of 900M.

But in keeping with your theme today, Bill, it doesn't matter so long as headline writers can play with numbers to keep this shaky facade from crumbling.

They compare month-over-month to get that headline. February! for god sakes.

We also learn that Feb numbers were revised downward, to their lowest level since 1999.

Hmm: Lest we become irrelevant...
We need to watch out for our own fears! It is good that we do not like debt, derivatives, leverage, bullying CEO's and obnoxious HB&B etc. But who is winning this game? After the next correction who will rebound quicker? Those who have been slapped silly by the sudden drop and staggering to their feet? Or the ones who take advantage of how THE GAME IS PLAYED NOW.

Sincerely,
Have 40% sidelined now and feeling a bit foolish for it.

PS: Just to get some good dicussion on the fact that a lot of money is being made now in spite of all that we do not like. :-)

Euro making new highs

http://tinyurl.com/33xrml

SLW reports first quarter results tomorrow

aguanv/all-

If Jeremy Grantham's balanced global allocation accounts can and do, admittedly, have up to 50% fixed income and cash in them right now, you can be comforted by the elite company you are keeping.

agaunv makes a great point. As we "opine" and present evidence for what we believe *should* be happening (with scenarios varying in degree from mild recession and bear market to apocalyptic end of economy as we know it), the Harlem Globetrotters (markets) just keep on truckin' with their fancy dribbling and shooting.

When the market is behaving like the Globetrotters, is is not wise to bet on the Washington Generals (their hapless opponents). I suppose there's another metaphor one could apply from "professional" wrestling (where the outcome is pre-ordained and it's just a matter of choreography), but I can't stand that stuff.

But geez, when are those double inverse index ETFs really gonna be "on sale" ?!

t4k

(all cash, plus one long term boo-boo hold)

KRY up 5%...going to start selling into strength...i cannot come up with any strategy for playing this stock, plan to be out by the end of the day, good luck to all who stay in...

from yahoo abour UPS - http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070425/earns_ups.html?.v=6

The U.S. economy also was responsible for dulling UPS profits, as "the economy slowed more than anticipated three months ago," said Scott Davis, chief financial officer. Still, UPS expects its small package market, which was flat for the first quarter, to perform better than the national gross domestic product growth in 2007.

Revenue grew 3.3 percent to $11.90 billion from $11.52 billion a year ago. Revenue from the company's U.S. package segment rose 1.2 percent to $7.55 billion, while international package revenue climbed 10.4 percent to $2.38 billion.

UPS projects second-quarter profit in a range of $1 to $1.05 per share, compared with earnings of 97 cents a year ago and analysts' consensus estimate of $1.05 per share. Davis said the company will reach its goal during its centennial year of earnings growth of up to 10 percent over the previous year.

"Growth should improve in the second half of the year," Davis said. "Managing costs prudently should offset the effects of the sluggish U.S. economy."

Shares of UPS traded up 76 cents to $72.69 Wednesday at the opening of the New York Stock Exchange.

- managing costs effectively - hmmm...
- 1.2% US package growth
- sluggish economy mentioned more than once.

aguanv - from Leisa's post: "...it seems that wealth created from ether can evaporate into a black hole."

USD just took another slide down.
Getting close to the event horizon.

2nd_ave:

If it finishes strong today, it is going to gap up in the morning.

Another round of rumours starting in the YHOO boards today about possible permit tomorrow. Usually it is good for 2 days.

A few items...sticking my neck out and asking the board for assistance.

Anyone further explain why the utility index is going up? Bill mentions "speculation." I'm confused by this explanation. I can only connect it to defensive (speculation)...ie, fed rates will need to come down due to slowing economy.

From an investor's standpoint, does it make a difference if an asset class, such as the utility index, is going up even if it's irrational? Trade the price(ie buy on relative strength...best reflected by Colin Twiggs? vs anticipate (disaster..ie. stay in cash and wait for the market to come to you per Bill). Two different philosophies that make sense to me but my emotions are more steeped in the former. I would like to use both. Is this irrational? Meanwhile, there's a war in my head.

Last, just passing on information. Interactive Broker has been announced as an ipo at Fidelity, and probably elsewhere. I was notified that it is being priced at 23-27. It's an open auction. I'm kind of excited based on Bill's enthusiasm. IPO desk said that this non traditional ipo method will allow for greater allocation. But, who knows, the lows on May 3 may be lower than the initial price.

Nice article in The Economist this week abotu Credit Derivatives, a primer for the novices. I realize most don't have the subscription so I am posting the most salient portion. Think of these devices as a member of the Harlem Globetrotters

... problem could be the effect of derivatives on the global supply of credit. David Roche, of Independent Strategy, argues that derivatives have created a form of liquidity outside the control of central bankers. “It is pretty obvious that if one can buy a security that represents an asset for 3-5% of its value, an awful lot of liquidity has been freed up,” he says. “Derivatives have led to many more assets and liabilities being created. By reducing the cost of buying assets, you increase the demand.”

People tend to think of two types of money: narrow money (notes and coins) and broad money (bank accounts and other kinds of assets). Mr Roche says this structure is like an inverted pyramid, where the top layer is derivatives, worth more than nine times global GDP. Credit derivatives are only a small part of this, but already the amounts involved are staggering. According to the Bank for International Settlements, the nominal amount of credit-default swaps had reached $20 trillion by June last year. With volumes almost doubling every year since 2000, some reckon the CDS market will soon be worth more than $30 trillion

This derivatives “money” is not being used to buy food, clothes or cars—which is why there has been no general pick-up in inflation. But it has been used to inflate asset prices, Mr Roche argues.

The danger is things might go into reverse. A rising cost of capital (perhaps from inflation worries) or a rise in risk aversion (due to a pick-up in defaults) might be the culprit. If liquidity falls throughout the system, derivatives will take the biggest hit. But the result, if derivatives have been pumping up the demand for assets, could be a sharp fall in asset prices.

That makes the naughty or nice question hard to answer. So far, credit derivatives have shown their nice side. Their explosive growth has come against a background of generally benign economic conditions, with only modest recessions and low or falling interest rates. Indeed, derivatives have helped produce those benign conditions, by removing some of the financial constraints on growth.

My main playground (My IRA account) is shutdown for 90 days.
I got a 90 day restriction on my TDW IRA account because I accidentally sold my KGC instead of buying. Now I have to call them to buy anything. And I had already used a one time exception 2 years ago.

Anyone know if I transfer into another firm, does the 90 day restriction gets transfered with it.

for all those interested...
WGI is on sale this morning (WGDF). Bill gave us that head's up about Arnold's mentioning it in a speech sometime soon. I added to my position this morning. Good luck to everyone in such turbulence.

agaunv

I think that you capture my sentiment when you say:

"PS: Just to get some good dicussion on the fact that a lot of money is being made now in spite of all that we do not like. :-)"

A co investor using the same relative strength software as myself is up over 23% ytd. He routinely places a stop loss on his purchase price, circa 4.5%, and then if not stopped out places a trailing loss of circa 7.5%. All buy signals are never acted on unless specified technical criteria are met...that is, not in down trend. Cash is held until uptrend appears. All positions are in etfs. He's been doing this for years. His best results come from strategies that only require about 2-3 trades per year. As an example, an etf position in Spain, ewp, has been held since may of 2006. On the possible downside, he will feel pain if his stop losses can't kick in due to sudden downdraft in the eventual crash, but he can be reasonably philosophical that he is well ahead of the game. For me, this is a program that fits my head..but, I've just started and I don't have that psychological buffer. Often, shut eyes to over bought conditions are required.

Today, the sound I heard was more like a referee's whistle than a starter's pistol. Second half of the Globetrotters game is underway!

Doot doot do do, doot doot do do dooooooo do do do...

(try singing it and see if you smile)

t4k

JogyP,

Yes, you can transfer your IRA to another broker and escape the 90-day prison sentence, but TDW will ding your account with $50!

Although it is none of my business, how does selling KGC trigger a 90-day restriction (unless you used the proceeds of the sale for another rountrip transaction before KGC settled)?

TcolemanUF

Economist mag piles up on my desk. That is one article, mentioned by you, that did catch my eye. After a almost two decades of ignoring this magazine...now a freebie...I'm struck by what looks like a change in editorial bias. Would you say that it is now moderate (i saw it as more to the left in the past). Doesn't matter, all spin or just rear mirror filler, to me. Informed brutal honesty is the rarest of commodities, as we get here. Appreciate some of the posts today that show readers here are not blindly part of a cult. Bill's editor should stand corrected. (Please, no ostracizing, just in case it is a cult because I want to be in it.)

Good morning, Bill.

Interesting da in the PM field. Looks like gold and silver just got bombed, but stocks like PAAS AUY and GRS. I added some HL yesterday on the downgrade and am adding to WGDF today.

My PAL RAIL and SLB doing well after being pushed down yesterday. It will be an interesting close. wonder wut the over/under is on 13,0000.

Most brokers don't allow shorting in IRA's, but they have trading programs that prohibit it.

WHY **THEIR** system allowed someone to sell shares they **didn't** have is a MUCH better question.

Did you ask why their system is so F'ed up that it allowed you to short?

Be a pissed off customer instead of pointing out you hit the wrong button. Sometimes it's in the approach. They are screwed up too. They should fix it.

I just finished a mergers and acquisition class for my MBA, and while I totally agree that share-buy backs don't create value, my prof always insisted it does. According to him: financial restructuring to take on more debt builds value in form of a tax shield. Share buy-back creates share holder value the same way dividends by essentially increasing leverage (also good according to him). Less tangible benefit is the fiscal discipline imposed on management, i.e. can't persue wasteful projects cause need to carefully manage cash.

He also presented lots of studies that show how share prices are impacted positively by such announcements (his proof of value creation). But as Bill says, if leverage is increased to point that debt solvency could come into doubt, then prof concedes it's a bad move.

Must also say the "March House Sales Higher" story cracks me up. 2.6% higher sales over February, whoopee considering March has 10% more days...

Jasper, speculation driving utilities I believe is strictly the speculation that private equity will take utilities out for premiums. Utilities have steady cashflows and are great re-leveraging targets.

Or, did you sell an asset that wasn't settled yet for a free ride?

Their system should warn you of that too.
Something like "The stock you are selling was purchased with unsettled funds, do you wish to continue?"

Maranhao,

Thanks, instead of waiting 90 days, I will move.
Here is how it Happend:

On 4/19 I purchased KGC with the proceeds from the sale of another stock same day.
On 4/23 I wanted to Buy more, but selected "sell" instead of "Buy".
I guess I was not very careful in reviewing the confirmation page.

WGDF looking good today..

I am in the old TD Waterhouse system. No warning.
I was told that starting next month, they will have the warning.

I already have an ActiveTrader status with Fidelity, so this will be good reason to make the move, I have been delaying for months.

I am noticing NEM call volume high for the last few days/weeks.

Did some serching and foud this: (dated March 29)
"My sources indicate that the world's largest gold company, Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), may make a play for the world's second largest, Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM)," suggests Mark Skousen, a 25 year veteran of the advisory industry.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/03/29/takeover-for-newmont/

I think Mark Skousen is wrong about the hedging.

I also know Bill preferes KGC over NEM.

NEM looks like a play here.

Jogy,

You may want to consider ETrade, especially since they will be opening up to foreign markets within the next few months.

If KRY does spike up tomorrow, I'm going to start trimming my position way back to lock in some of these profits. I have been in KRY since well below $2, but I need to realize it in my account (and not just on paper!). WGDF might be a worthy place for the proceeds.

JogyP--If it is any consolation, Fidelity has no warning either. So I make sure that I put the settlement date on my history screen so that I don't sell something before it has settled.

If you tell them you are moving your account that it was an honest error, they may grant you another reprieve.

I suggest an interesting reading here:
http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/2001
about a parallel: 1929 and 2007. That is: an emerging country (today China, yesterday US) is inflating the money supply to help the mature and stagnating country (today US, yesterday Great Britain). And the process bears: overheating of the emerging stock exchange, and a crash a little later...

Leisa:
Fidelity has the warning. I just tried to sell the SNDK I bought yesterday and got this:

"Attention:
(013013)The sell order you are about to place includes shares that are not yet settled (paid for). Please be aware that if there are insufficient funds to cover your original purchase, this sale may result in a Good Faith violation. For more information, please contact a Fidelity representative at 1-800-544-6666 or"

I tried the "Moving account/ honest error" with the CS guys, but they dont care. They said "SEC.."

I posted too many times today, so I will stop commenting for the rest of the day, before Bill gets mad at me :)

The Euro: Will It, Or Will It Not?

SENTIMENT ON THE DOLLAR
4/25/2007 11:57:14 AM

By Vadim Pokhlebkin

As of this morning (April 25), the euro came within 3 pips (0.03 of one cent) of registering a new all-time high against the U.S. dollar.

The previous high occurred on December 30, 2004, at $1.3667. As of this writing, the euro/dollar exchange rate has reached as high as $1.3664. Will it break through? And what happens if it does?

First, a little background. When the dollar was scraping the bottom in December 2004, you couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting a dollar bear. "Crash and burn” was the widespread expectation for the buck, and the story even made the cover of several business magazines (the famous "magazine cover indicator.")

We all remember what followed. By the end of 2005, the USD gained 14.6% on the EUR and 15.2% on the JPY. That's when forex analysts, to their amazement, realized that in 2005 “the greenback enjoyed its best year against the euro and yen since 1999 and 1979 respectively.” So unexpected was the dollar’s rally that even Warren Buffet, the Sage of Omaha, who famously bet “$20 billion or so” against the buck in 2004, was caught off guard by its sudden and sustained turnaround (The Wall Street Journal).

It's worth noting that the current consensus among analysts is again bearish on the dollar. The latest monthly Reuters poll of "around 60 top foreign exchange strategists" shows that the majority expects 2007 to a bad year for the USD but a good one for the EUR and the JPY.

While the bearish consensus doesn't seem to be as uniform as it was in December 2004, it's a consensus nonetheless. Back then no one liked the dollar because of its “bad fundamentals.” Well, the “fundamentals” haven’t really changed since then, and neither has the analysts’ reasoning for staying bearish. They can keep analyzing “bad fundamentals” till they’re blue in the face, but the bottom line is this: “Fundamentals” obviously didn't prevent the USD from rallying in 2005, so why should they in 2007?

A few technical indicators may be worth watching here. Regular readers of this column already know how bearish the dollar sentiment has been, as measured by the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI). The index is constructed by polling forex traders to see whether the majority is bullish or bearish, and its April 23 reading was at 11.7 – near all time-lows. That means that 88% of forex traders out there are bearish on the USD.

Another noteworthy sentiment indicator is the Commitment of Traders (COT). This report is significant, because it lets us know what the big boys are doing (that is, where their money is.) The chart below shows the record extremes that the hedge funds (Large Speculators) and the Commercials (“smart money”) are presently holding with respect to the euro futures:

Note the position of each of these two groups of traders at the wave (A) low. Now look at their current stance – it is the near-mirror opposite of the dollar’s extreme.

And of course, another technical indicator we at Elliott Wave International find particularly useful is the wave pattern. Without going into too many details, let me just say that our Currency Specialty Service analysts believe that the EURUSD is in the fifth wave of three different wave degrees: i.e., fifth wave of a larger fifth of a larger fifth.

Two years ago, forex market reviewers overwhelmingly called the “unexpected strength of the US dollar” in 2005 one of that year’s “biggest surprises” (FT). We shouldn't have to wait too long to find out if history repeats itself.

I can't see how the SEC or the brokers won't allow for the small investor to sell their relatively small number of shares that haven't been settled, when big brokers or hedge funds can sell or short millions of dollars worth shares that don't even exist! i.e. failure to delivers or 'i.o.u.'s

I would definitely recommend that 1 hour presentation that Bill mentioned about a week ago on the subject to anyone who wants a glimpse at the magnitude of this malpractice.

"Good Faith". Unbelievable.

To Bill first, and then all the community. Bill thank you. I know for me a negative comment or a too busy day occupy my mind and spoil my inner peace way more than a simple "thank you". But, Thank You. You will reach a million hits! And if its what’s to be, I will be a paid subscriber or a voluntary donator or, if my small nest egg is enough, a willing investor with you. I do not post often as I have no valuable nuggets to offer, but I read the comments daily and research links offered. I am changing the way I invest because of this site. I have made some gains from what I have learned here but more importantly, avoided losses (on May 10 2006) by applying the lessons discussed on this site. And I appreciate the difference Bill makes between knowledge offered vs. advice given.
I am taking the controls of my future back from HBB-though slowly. If I take control of my portfolio and, really,.... I’m just a regular guy, one day my independence and my vote can be that one deciding vote to get liars out of office and of control over brave but tragically wasted/lost lives.
To jasper, your mistake and the resulting comments have helped me make the (decision to) move to a web account. Thanks for airing out your mistakes.
Peace

Hello All,

Well, I guess I got my answer on KRY. Sometimes it seems like nothing on earth makes stocks go up with as much vigor as my selling them immediately prior.

Chris

To echo a comment by a poster yesterday on PM allocation, I too was surprised by Bill's low allocation.

FWIW:my own allocation:
miners: 16%
etf/gld: 9.5%

Perhaps I'm representative of the board and need restraint? Bill says, "it's late in the game."

I confess, i'm flying a little blind and am more dependent on this blog than may be healthy...for indications that it's time to rotate elsewhere. My position is to hold until then, not to trade in and out..at least not more than once. I have been watching the $usd as a driver. Appreciate the posts above relevant to the future of the dollar. Another possible view about what is driving gold is the health of BRIC like countries. As long as they want to buy gold for cultural reasons (e.g. india is in the wedding season) and can, I keep talking myself into holding the miners.

Bill and All,
Thank you you your wisdom and time to teach. I will pay for the service and ads would be OK too. This is a site I read everyday,
and look forward every Sunday to read the WIR.
Sarah Hadassah

Lelik's post contains an article that ALL should/must read. It is another interesting piece of the puzzle that assists one to understand the big picture.

http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/2001

History may not repeat in identical fashion but the participants of this blog are in daily reminder of the challenges and pitfalls. One just needs to assemble all of the pieces of this jigsaw puzzle into a finished picture. Bill's commentary will serve us well to accomplish this picture in the days and months ahead.

Does anyone have an opinion on Mpel? It's the "pureplay" on the Macau gaming story. They're set to open Crown Macau next week. I opened a position today after the stock took about a 10% haircut the past two days.

Longer term, i see many people are comparing the china market to nasdaq 1998-2000. Not sure when it comes crashing down (it can't b4 the olympics....can it?) but FXI will be a nice short when it occurs.

shark_ attack, not again!

Back to the $, Yeah something is starting to really really stink about this decline, a major rally could really happen (as in be orchestrated)! Is this a setup?

Seriously, what are the odds of a fair recovery and what would the net effect be on miners and bonds say for the next 3-6 months? A dollar rally would be great for the treasury market right?

JogyP,

You may be right about gapping up tomorrow, but since I'm in the green now, I'm exiting KRY completely. Good luck...

Birch Mountain (BMD) pulling back to test its break-out area--adding here.

Sell methods...discussions.

I have toyed with using a multiple of the 20 day Average True Range (ATR) For example, I bought AMGN and used 4x the ATR as a stop...As the stock moved up, I tightened the stop to 2.5 x ATR and when it got real extreme (which it did), I ended up selling 1/2 of my position when I gave up 25% of the total gain I had, and the balance when it broke 61.15 (Highest price of AMGN less 2.5xATR).
I want to make sure that when I buy in the Accumlation Zone that I dont lose my shirt.

ATR takes volatility of your stock into account. The more volatility the further away your sell point will be. This helps prevent you from having your sell point too close. You can find and adjust ATR at www.stockcharts.com

Another sell idea is to sell half the position after a good run up when the RSI(14) goes above 75 and shows signs of slowing.

My purchases require that the stock has been in the 30/20/20 (my acc zone) and the MACD is flat or turning up.

Comments welcome!!!

Another impressive day for Blue Pearl (BLE.TO)... 7.70% up today. Chinese moly IPO is tomorrow, so I believe more volume is coming.

KRY: extracted from Ant & Sons website
www.antandsons.com:80/2007/04/crystallex-relief-rally-on-stafford.html
(someone let me know if this is not permissible or encouraged). In any event it reads just as Bill and Bob Bishop have alluded to in the past, a takeover when the permit is finally issued.

Crystallex Relief Rally on Stafford Comments

MarketWatch reported yesterday on the decline in gold prices which hit some of the major gold mining companies as well as some of the smaller cap names. What was also newsworthy is that the article quoted John Stafford, editor of Stafford's Investment Strategy Letter, as saying he likes the "bigger juniors" such as Crystallex International Corp. (AMEX: KRY) because "they are still cheap and very ripe for the plucking by bigger golds who need their reserves of gold and other metals." While this is nothing new because many in the financial press have speculated on this in the past, the comments are helping to usher in a relief rally in shares of Crystallex that have slowly grinded lower in the past week. The stock is higher by $.18, or 4.92%, to $3.84 on moderate volume of 2.4 million shares. But as we have previously reported, the major catalyst for Crystallex shares remains of course the receipt of an environmental permit which would allow the company to commence operations at its Venezuelan Las Cristinas gold mine. That is why investors are constantly paying attention to this name and why the stock should continue to remain on trader's radars because there is no doubt that Crystallex shares will see significant upside once the permit is approved.

Cramer is pounding the table on a big rally through summer. That giant clicking sound you hear is middle america getting pounding their mouses and buying stocks.

should be a good reverse trade here.

holdenll

A succesful sector trader uses the ATR. Here's a quote he sent me:
One common method is to buy a security or index when it rises to a certain momentum rank (exp: the top decile) and sell when it falls below a somewhat lower ranking (exp: below the top 15%).

I've also used a "chandelier stop" technique popularized by Chuck Le Beau. I prefer a 4.5 ATR stop from the most recent high (and also prefer to calculate ATR based on 50 to 100 days of data).

end of quote.
For using the cara 100 or cara mico100 you may be onto something. I wish that I could program such a method. In reality I'm not going to be disciplined about uisng it if I have to go to stockcharts.com every day. WLP at Fidelity is the answer if I had the tech skills to code. I think that one would virtually get their personal alert.

Differnt topic: the dollar becoming less relevant?
implies....Roger Nusbaum for Seeking Alpha
an argument for commodities moving higher with less ties to the dollar?

Chris,

You're not the only person who feels "like nothing on earth makes stocks go up with as much vigor as my selling them immediately prior." I sold MU at a loss the day before the buying kicked in. And of course, it's hard to buy back in. Rotating into another play can sometimes make me feel better, but I have to make sure it's not an emotional decision.

Conundrum--RTH is up 1.25% today, but 80% of its holdings are less than .5% up. Interesting divergence I think.

JogyP--Thanks for the Fidelity note. They didn't have it some time ago which is when I moved to a margin account for my taxable account. I guess I'm so well trained on my other account that I've never triggered the message. Good luck.

I personally love Fidelity. They treat me like a queen whenever I call them.

why is hrg having such a huge volume of trades.

i appreciate this web site ... thank you bill for all your hard work. as a novice investor i am finding it a wonderful site....

Akamai just fell 9% on huge volume within the last half an hour. Earnings are scheduled to be released after market close today. Has information been leaked early?

C'mon c'mon c'mon gnomes and shorts, give us a multi-day blow off right up through magic May 1 and a one-for-the-record-book reversal May 2.

BTW Bill...I think the 'gnomes' would like to have a bear market in a month or two this time...they have become so greedy and they absolutely hate to wait to ring the register. Imagine, a whole bear in May/June and the gnomes back all-in July 1. Now wouldn't that rattle a lot of cages?

Thanks for the information on MPEL, Bill. Always great to hear a personal angle. I'll be looking to add more on weakness. My wife and I plan on city hopping through Asia via Cathay Pacific in the next few years. Will definitely check out Macau.

PMs look good into the close. I think we get a nice move up the rest of the week now that contract expiration is past.

Well Bill,
The Crystal Ball is right on time. Afternoon PM rally as predicted this AM. I bet you can see Kansas in that sucker.

Doing nicely on the MU, Thanks!

Opened small position in MPEL.

lovesaves,

Looks like someone jumped the gun and filed 8K during the trading day. I don't believe that AKAM makes it standard practice to release during trading hours. Nonetheless, they got a chilly reaction here.

JML

JML,

Thanks. It looks to me like AKAM met their quarterly targets. This has been a very strange day with AMZN taking off like a rocket and now this. I expected the reverse. KRY is starting to look like a safer bet.

Fred

AMZN had an immense amount of shorts. So there are lots of people feeling alot of pain. ETH had a short covering rally yesterday (by my estimation that's what it looked like to me).

Leisa,

Since you are at Fidelity, are you planning to participate in the IPO by Interactive Brokers? Bill has mentioned this ipo, frequently. If so, any thoughts on pricing? May 2nd will be the last day, I think, to show interest.

Leisa,

AMZN was gold today. May 50 Calls up from $0.40 to $7, 52.5s up from $0.15 to $5.20, and the 55s from $0.05 to $3. :-)

Fred -

AKAM is a case of priced-for-perfection Wall Street darling not exploding over expectations (as well as broad retail participation thanks to Cramer i.e. partially distributed merchandise ready to suffer a bit).

AMZN (and my new ulcers can attest for it) speaks of the shorts' hunting game under way. Too many copycat (weak) players are squeezed on a good (not great) report and on a bunch of clueless analysts scampering for cover. I got a refresher on an old lesson of 2H1999: never short a short squeeze too early, I paid for the lesson and will carry the scars as a good reminder for the rest of this bull melt-up.

jasper,

The diminished relevance of USD sounds like a self-serving argument to talk away the risks inherent to a rapidly weakening currency. After years of "strong USD is good" mantra, Wall Street seems tempted to spin the transitory benefits (exports, better earnings from offshore business boosting stocks) to the detriment of the long-term impacts (price inflation, required higher nominal returns from foreigners). Yet barring a break of Yen carry trade, I can't see rapid deterioration of USD unless europeans are ready to place strategic actions above economic (near-term) interest and talk Euro as new reserve currency (diversified economies, etc...).

JML

Akamai - Anyone going long tomorrow?

Revenue grew to $139.3 million, up 53 percent year-over-year and 11 percent from the prior quarter
GAAP net income was $19.2 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, up 67 percent over the first quarter 2006
Normalized net income* increased 73 percent year-over-year to $50.7 million, or $0.28 per diluted share, and increased 7 percent over the prior quarter

http://www.akamai.com/html/about/press/releases/2007/press_042507.html

Dear People of the planet,

Isn't Spring blooming quite nicely now? Regarding KRY, I believe that indicators point to some follow through on today's move in KRY.

Your Friend,

Chris3beersandthensmokemifugotemthepcosmicstudmuffinofhtetristatearea.......

Dear People of the planet,

Isn't Spring blooming quite nicely now? Regarding KRY, I believe that indicators point to some follow through on today's move in KRY.

Your Friend,

Chris3beersandthensmokemifugotemthepcosmicstudmuffinofhtetristatearea.......

Wavesmash,

Today's AKAM selloff knocked me back to even. I'll wait through the morning and see if there is more fallout. I'll buy if there is another 6 or 7 percent drop. It's still expensive but, I'm in for the long haul.

Fred

If ever there was an example of irrational exuberance it is Eastman Kodak up 9% on rumors of a leveraged buyout:

http://tinyurl.com/3ctgyf

This is a prime example of why I stopped shorting this market months ago. Even a POS company like EK can zoom in this market.

Reporting from St Martin,

Everyone on the cruise and on shore is trying to sell me something. otherwise its a great vacation. I might have to look into Carnival Cruise stock when i get back. they own Princess and thats the ship I am on now. Great great staff and operation. the internet connection is the one sour note. satellite prob are causing 60kbps ouch.

I cant keep up with all the usual reading here but look fwd to coming back on monday. maybe not.

ALOHA !!

HOLY COW ... Goldman Suchs Japan dropped down another 2,489 short contracts, yesterday 4/24, to a total net short of 20,716 !! The lowest ever since they joined the TOCOM ... Goldman still holds no long positions in gold ... they only hold long positions in silver!!

Lately it has been the ECB dumping gold, but if Goldman is any indicator it seems that the POG may be moving up here soon. It is pure insanity for the US Dollar to tank like it has along with all the other bad US economic news on a daily basis and yet gold and silver go down! HUM-M-M-M???

Look what happens when supply is depleted ... See a 5 year chart on the spot price of nickel! I am sure the Western central banks have noted the nickel inventories relation to price. Is it any wonder that there are no such charts to show gold warehouse inventories. How exactly can you inventory something that is labeled "DEEP STORAGE"???? Or is on "LOAN"? The Cetral Bankers want gold to be as transparent as the M3! Is there any doubt that there is a hidden agenda here?

Link: http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical.html

Problem is gold is a monetary metal which will add to the hedge demand side more, especially when fiat currency falls on hard times! Which is ... NOW!

SiO2:

>

Well done!

Jasper, I'm too big a chicken to do IPO's.

ALOHA !!

Naked shorting is again coming to light and like Blanchard Coins did a few years ago with the BIG BANK crooks of the Cartel, now Overstock.com is trying to do ... mainly ... SHINE THE LIGHT on nefarious trading practices that Wall Street has used for many years to fleece investors.

My orchid nursery is a partner with Overstock.com, where we sell our flowers. We have been with them for around five years now. I recall a time when their stock was trading below $6 when we first joined and then shortly after
they were trading at $42. Today as we logged in we got an update on their latest lawsuits regarding "naked shorting". As you know their CEO has been on CNBC a few times, Patrick Byrne.

Check out all the BIG HUGE HB&B BANKS they are suing, filed in Feb 2007. WOW ... they are taking on GOLIATH!

Looks like Overstock.com is leading a serious charge to take back these so called "free markets" ... This CEO really puts his money where his mouth is! Looks as if the only crook they aren't suing is JP Morgan, but I guess
the fat lady hasn't sung yet ... so ...


READ ON:
NEW UPDATE: 4.23.07 – NAKED SHORT SELLING UPDATE: PATRICK BYRNE

Dear Partners –

We wanted to take a moment to update you about two important law suits with which Overstock.com has been involved. We believe the outcome of these suits will change the landscape of American investing; they seek to hold Wall Street accountable for the predatory practice of Naked Short Selling which has contributed the collapse of many publicly traded companies.

Gradient Analytics and Rocker Partners, L.P. Litigation
In August 2005 we filed an unfair business practice lawsuit against Gradient Analytics, Rocker Partners, L.P. and others, alleging that the defendants have conspired to denigrate Overstock’s business for personal profit. In October 2005 we filed an amended complaint alleging additional causes of action and articulating in greater detail the allegations against the defendants.

Prime Broker Litigation
In February 2007, along with five shareholder plaintiffs, we filed a lawsuit in the Superior Court of California, County of San Francisco against Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Goldman Sachs & Co., Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., Bank of America Securities LLC, Bank of New York, Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse (USA) Inc., Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc., Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc., and UBS Financial Services, Inc.

Overstock CEO, Patrick Byrne, was recently profiled in a Bloomberg TV special report covering the topic of Naked Short Selling. We encourage all of our partners to watch the piece in an effort to get a better understanding of why the topic is so important. Please click here to watch the special report.

For additional information, see below for the press release issued by Overstock on April 20 and read the April 12 Law.com article on the status of the Gradient/Rocker suit by Mike McKee of The Recorder.

Regards,
The Overstock.com Partner Team

Kaimu and others,

here is a great 1 hr interview with Patrick Byrne of overstock.com. You can download it and listen on the way to work, or on your mp3 player if you like.
it is from fso, which I know some of you read/listen to, right Leisa?

Enjoy