hi bill,

here is a good story on the cara 100 stock icici
and india in general

India's Mortgage Borrowers Face the Big Squeeze:

plus

Petrodollars, the Savings Bust, and the U.S. Current Account Deficit / PIMCO

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

I see this a.m. that LEND has some new financing commitments + their auditors have resigned. Stock is trading at 9.75 v. the 8.48 prior close.

Good going 2nd_ave

Bill, the investment banks refused to recognize Moody's almost incomprehensible decision to UPGRADE certain marginal lenders because their respective governments would surely bail them outif they faltered. I commented on this story ten days ago when it first broke. In this respect, the investment banks have it exactly right.

The pending sales index is down 8.5% YoY, but up .07 from Feb (using a downwardly revised January number).

http://tinyurl.com/2355kh

That month-over-month sleight of hand has sparked a rally in the HBs.

Any comments on the upside potential for LEND?

Looks like there is still some possibility there?

Leisa,

You missed my closing post yesterday. I was stopped out of both lenders yesterday near the lows! Thought I had set stops wide enough to handle the volatility-what can I say..on to the next trade.

good mornin bill------ again bill -my favourite gold!!!!!!!!!!! kry looks verry positive the last few days. really hope that the evro. permit is granted. thanks in advance for your comments russ.

good mornin bill------ again bill -my favourite gold!!!!!!!!!!! kry looks verry positive the last few days. really hope that the evro. permit is granted. thanks in advance for your comments russ.

Leisa,

Are you still long KRY?

2nd_Ave--

Sorry about the LEND stop.

RE: KRY I dumped my KRY on the last spike (though I didn't catch the top of the spike). I made 30%. There is too much dissonance between the Reuters Latino article and management's response--I'm not quite sure why they were not available for the original posting (by Reuters) but available to rebut (which seemed vague to me). Plus, I didn't like the fact that (1)their auditors resigned and the opinion reflects a material weakness (I'd give it high probability that MW played into their decision to stand down; (2) part of the MW had to do with the handling of VZ taxes, and if you will remember that was an issue some time ago and "all was righted"--that means to me something potentially would lurk; and (3)...again...the dissonance between the Reuters and mgt's response. Remember, mgt has been saying for some time now that the permit was coming any time. It may, but that wait and risk is not for me.

I will gracefully rejoice the fortune's of others if the stock goes to $10 or beyond.

GRZ announced a conference call for Thursday noon EST. I bet this will affect prices of GRZ and KRY: http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070402006030&newsLang=en

Adding to Jock's post, the GRZ call is at 1pm ET and there appears to be a webcast link on this page:

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=101938&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=1510417

This line from above regarding Korean FTA struck me: “would especially benefit US farmers and Korean manufacturers."

Seems to be a case in point for malinvestments due to govt interference. One might argue that agricultural subsidies probably represent a significant tax on the rest of the economy, not to mention are a thorn in the side of all global free trade. And instead of rectifying that situation, this international trade agreement further 'strengthens' the US's agricultural position at the expense of exporting manufacturing.

Not something you would expect from the most technologically advanced nation on the planet...

Good to hear you're not second guessing your LEND trade, 2nd. The more significant piece of news was the resignation of the auditors. I think one would have to be insane to hold LEND for more than a few days.

The drop in the VIX and rally in the lenders and home builders today does not look sustainable.

wavesmash: if you're looking at LEND, I would agree with n2son. Leisa also posted some research on her blog this morning. http://theperplexedinvestor.blogspot.com/

Leisa: On my watch list is BMD, a (non-metallic) minerals exploration company that was mentioned in James De Porre's blog (I think you've mentioned him as a source) last fall right before it tanked-one of his rare bad trades (and chronicling my own trades has given me plenty of respect for anyone who puts it out there). After 6 months of going nowhere it looks ready to break out.

We like UC Irvine. They guarantee two years of housing for entering freshmen, and claim to have the best residence halls in the UC system. It would be great if my son and his roommates are able to find condos at distressed prices in the area when they move off campus in a couple of years.

Also on my watch list is NGAS, which was mentioned by stktrader on this site last December. Will look to enter above 7 on increased volume.

GRZ received its permits and the share is sitting around 6.60. What point in a miner's cycle will make this stock go higher? Is it now waiting for production for the price to jump?

Question: is this the level we'd expect KRY to reach when it receives its permit, or would it go higher, in spite of it having many more outstanding shares than GRZ? (Assuming JC does not mention it!)

re KRY and GRZ - shares outstanding keep being mentioned, but does GRZ have the same level of funding that KRY does? If not, now that they have the permit, they might dilute the share base to get money for operations (not the only way of course, but a possibility mentioned on their message boards).

Also, what is the difference in proven reserves and what are the total costs to get the reserves out? Maybe KRY's open pit is cheaper than GRZ's site.

Finally, there is star power, so to speak. KRY has come out of JC's mouth so many times, but who mentions GRZ? They are now getting the time of day since they have VZ's blessing, so maybe that will change.

These are all amateur guesses, btw. Now a question for anyone - Mr. Cara mentioned Gold Fields as a buyout candidate, but has also recommended them in the past for other reasons. If they made a bid for one or both, would this make you more or less likely to buy GFI? Just curious.

BTW, long KRY.

Uranium stocks are "red hot" today. Some guru's saying it's going to $110 lb this month.

rob d, I thought about that same question this morning. GFI would be the buyer. To know who benefits the most, the buyer or the buyee, I've had the painful experience of finding out it's the insiders of low priced spec companies that will put themselves first. So, it can be hard to tell where the crumbs will fall. I have a position already in GFI and am not likely to add. My PM allocation is full. I, too am amateur, and I try to play without getting hurt, too much.

You guys keep calling yourselves amateurs.

just find a few suckers to give you money to invest , maybe a crazy uncle, and you too can be a 'pro'

Re KRY.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070403/0234689.html

Horatio,

sounds like they are positioning to imply they are going to mine las cristinas, whereas Todd leaving signaled the opposite. this may be for appearance sake, or it may be to have both options available to mgmt. either mine it with someone experienced at the helm in ops, or sell it. puts the pressure on the bidders. but they need the final permit ofcourse. I believe the saying goes "where there is smoke..." GRZ provided the smoke.

NYUgrad. I notice Mr. Faust is fluent in Spanish. He can now slap around Reuters when they relaese "lost in translation" news releases in Spanish. It wont be long now until the last chapter goes to press.

2nd_ave
If you are interested in NGAS, you should also take a look at EVEP, although it has already had a big move. It might make sense to let it form its first base.

AMGN looks like a good buy here. Down 20% in the last 2 months.
http://www.billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=amgn&wt=0

Thinking of getting in at 55.7. Any comments?

RE KRY...I cannot help myself. One would have thought that someone of Faust's caliber would already have been on board.

Re KRY: Just another thought:

Why keep someone like Faust's caliber on payroll when the Mgt don't know when they can start working.
Now that KRY mgt feels they are "close", they are getting things in order. (Financing,Expert managers..)

That makes two of us Leisa. The odd thing is that yesterday on my broker's system I thought I saw a release from Reuters (in English) stating that they stand by their article on the interview of Mr. Rodriguez, and that they had the tapes to prove it. However, today I cannot find this article. Just bizarre.

JogyP--(Not to sound argumentative--and I'll admit to overthinking things a bit much)...MGT has been saying that they are "close" since last October. That is not new information, though I remember on the Yahoo Board (shudder) it was treated as such. I also noted that there was a talking head (link was posted here) stating inference that because GRZ received the Las Brisas then the probability of KRY getting there's was high.

Why keep someone like Faust on the payroll?--If I were trying to get a mining permit, particularly when there has been an expression of concerns about environmental issues (remember these have been long-standing concerns), then I would hire the best and brightest professional I could to assuage those concerns and demonstrate a commitment to resourcing the operation in a way that would be above reproach. I would ask the question how they could afford NOT TO have someone on board.

Sorry to drone on an on...but I'm mesmerized by the "nuanced" releases that pretend to be new news when it is yesterday's news.

SiO2 (Silicon Dioxide?)--I had looked for a Reuters re-affirmation, but did not see one. Don't you wish you had printed that out?

Very strange stuff!

Yes Leisa, I wish I had, and I even thought about it, I think you need to do that with this company. But frankly, it may be better left for the badlands of Yahoo. But I am long on it too (on and off).

BTW, it reminds of an indian chief in Brazil who got elected as an MP. After a while, he learned to carry a tape recorder all the time so that he could prove that people said things.

JogyP,

If you type AMGN in the Search field on Bill's Home page, you'll find recent comments on the company by several of the regulars here.

Si02, somehow all this reminds me of the father of a good friend of my parents. This was in Mexico over 60 years ago. The man was a good and honorable man and was asked to be Minister of Finance. He agreed to take the position under the condition that he could remain honest. The condition was accepted.

He resigned less than two weeks later.

I was in Mexico some two years ago. I was reminded of the story when I passed a street named after him.

Hello all.

I have rarely posted anything on this board but i love the reading and useful information posted by all.

The main reason i found this site was because or KRY. I am very thankful becuase there has been so much OTHER useful informaiton learned form everyone who contributes and bill.

Re: kry - I got to thinking (maybe i missed a similar post)
In the past 30-60 days i noticed that institutional ownership has increased from roughly 25% to 36% (fidelity). More HB&B are taking the risk KRY.

several weeks ago (maybe a week) Cramer explained how the market works and can be manipulated. There have been some questionable stories released in regards to KRY. Volume has been through the roof lately. When a negative story hits someone is buy the stock and bring the value up.

Permit is in the "final stages now". I believe Todd Bruce said in October report we are "close" and these things take up-to three years in Canada and the U.S. Three years is this month so maybe we are "close or the final stages".

What if the drilling that took place in January shows that their is 16- 20k in gold in the mine? Hopefully that will be positive to the stock price. These results should be announce in May.

Although none of this matters with out the permit

Disclosure
LONG on KRY