For Illegal Immigrants, Housing Slump Takes Toll
Hispanic immigrants took 60 percent of the million new construction jobs created from 2004 to 2006. Those recently arrived took nearly half……

Angst in affluent America, Part 2

CME Housing Futures and Home Price Forecasts

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

I attended VA Tech (l-t agon). It's a beautiful campus with its majestic stone buildings. It is nestled in a beautiful area (3.5+ hours from where I lived). I'm sorry that they will now have this ignomy of being the site of the largest massacre staining their reputation--sorrier still for the grief that the loved ones must bear in dealing with the victims.

"all news is good news"
maybe "all news is irrelevant", equity markets seem to be tracking the yen since Feb 2007, so I guess everything else should be ignored

Lots of economic data released today. Nothing surprising, really, except that once again core inflation is downplayed. Ironically, the rise in March retail sales is attributed to price increases in gas, clothing and building materials.

We live in a world of contradictions.

Leisa, of course it's no consolation that this could have happened on any campus in America. I cynically expect nothing less than endless and pointless coverage of this tragedy in the media.

pound breaks $2 -

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070417/britain_pound.html?.v=12

Hello BIll,

My purchases based upon your guidance are

UXG ave. purchase price $4.58
WGDF purchased at $1.76
MFN ave. purchase price $10.99

My approximate gains are 49%, 9.5%, and 8% in under three weeks! I think it is only going to get better.

How can I thank you enough?

It seems WGDF and MFN have a strong chance of rising further. Of course my belief is primarily based upon your prior notes.

MFN does not seem to have as many shares out as the other miners of their size. I see this as an advantage. Do you agree?

Your calls have been incredible and yes I did write hoping the VIP’s you were meeting the past few days included a fishing guide, boat captain etc. but of course my true thought was a desire that you might be resting and relaxing. I am pulling for you to make a full recovery as soon as possible. Health first.

JJM

It would violate a lot of rules if Bill gave "advice". His site is for information purposes only. You make your own decisions based on the info that you find in this wonderful community.

My holdings
MU - still hanging on but will probably sell if closes below 11.
SNDK - 15% gain since Mar 1st. Starting to act tired.
AMGN - got in at 57.12 the first week of April. Nice pop.

SLW broke thru resistance around 11.15 yesterday; next resistance looks like 11.94-12.07 area December-November highs. DJ reports GMP upgrade of SLW to $14 US. Long SLW

Of course you cynically expect the media to saturate everyone with endless and pointless coverage. Just replace Imus with whatever happens next.

Unfortunately it was something like this. Of course we don't want to look at the reasons for these events. Kinda like the big California fire started by the homeless guy trying to stay warm.
We look too closely at the fire and ignore the underlying cause. Same comparison as prison funding vs education. We (Americans) just love the punitive path.

uxg down 8%+..if anyone is looking for an entry

Actually, stepping back for you day traders, SLW's recent move looks parabolic over the last ten days and RSI7 is 86 on the daily. Caution advised. My time frame is little longer as I watch fundamentals of $USD and the price of silver.

Good luck out there!

More drama for Crystallex

In Today's Wall Street Journal Online:

April 17, 2007, 8:59 am
Posted by David Gaffen

Continuing a trend of nationalizing companies, Venezuela will likely convert mining company Crystallex International’s operating contract into a mixed company with the state firmly in control, according to the terms of a new mining law. The shares were down 5.5% in premarket action as a result.

Anybody want to be disgusted about the conflicts we have between classes in our country simply look to this report out of the NY times.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/04/17/hedge-funds-big-tax-vacation/#comment-65578

Now aren't you all glad you had to pay your taxes this year. Some of you may have even had to sell some of your portfolio in order to cover gains seen earlier in the year.

Maybe we should all move our investments offshore. Oh yea we will have a more difficult time doing that and the SEC wants to restrict us from investing in the hedge funds that make it easier to achieve as they raise the accredited investor limits.

Absolutely. Blogging is not advising, directing or guiding.

We all thank Bill for informing us. After that we all make our own choices and we are responsible.

Anybody want to be disgusted about the conflicts we have between classes in our country simply look to this report out of the NY times.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/04/17/hedge-funds-big-tax-vacation/#comment-65578

Now aren't you all glad you had to pay your taxes this year. Some of you may have even had to sell some of your portfolio in order to cover gains seen earlier in the year.

Maybe we should all move our investments offshore. Oh yea we will have a more difficult time doing that and the SEC wants to restrict us from investing in the hedge funds that make it easier to achieve as they raise the accredited investor limits.

Anybody want to be disgusted about the conflicts we have between classes in our country simply look to this report out of the NY times.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/04/17/hedge-funds-big-tax-vacation/#comment-65578

Now aren't you all glad you had to pay your taxes this year. Some of you may have even had to sell some of your portfolio in order to cover gains seen earlier in the year.

Maybe we should all move our investments offshore. Oh yea we will have a more difficult time doing that and the SEC wants to restrict us from investing in the hedge funds that make it easier to achieve as they raise the accredited investor limits.

Sorry about the duplicates - I received error messages.

NRA convention just wrapping up in my city (St.Louis). NRA moved it here because Missouri was willing to pass (on the eve of the convention) a law forbidding our State from confiscating weapons in times of civil strife.

The initial venue (Cleveland) was in a state which refused to make this gesture. NRA was reacting to confiscation of guns in New Orleans, as crime rose after Katrina.

There are over 200M guns in the US. Despite wall-to-wall coverage of the sad events at VA Tech, I have yet to hear media mention of the notion that easy availability of guns to just anyone might be a factor!

2nd_ave,

were/are you watching that early morning volatility in UXG?? Seems to be slowing a bit now. I got out last week on the major up day, although a little bit before the top, and felt since like I wanted back in. This morning provided that opportunity, again not at the bottom, but close to 8% less than what I sold at. After watching the juniors for a time now, I also think that UXG will make some nice returns for us once the gold locomotive really gets rolling.

Had a quick look at PLM (polymet mining) and felt like flexing my 'analysis muscle'. But realize I'm still pretty new at this so be gently :)

From http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061101/0179190.html
"The Definitive Feasibility Study completed in September 2006 estimated direct capital costs of $312 million with owner's costs of $68 million."

I'm not sure, does that mean they only need to pony up $68 million (from dilution) and the rest will be bank loan? No mention of having to hedge production for loan like WFGD...

From http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070403/0234410.html
"private placement financing of 15 million units, at US$2.75 per unit, each unit comprising one common share plus one-half of one warrant, with each full warrant exercisable into one common share at US$4.00"

So looks like they've gone to market for about $41 million already, and recently, with about 20% dilution. Not too bad of dilution, if only $27 million more needed, bodes well for new buyers

From their website: http://www.polymetmining.com/s/Projects.asp?ReportID=78987&_Title=Project
"After state and federal taxes, the Base Case rate of return is 26.7% and the present value of the future cash flow discounted at 7.5% per annum is $595.4 million."

My finance prof would say any project with a positive NPV is worth doing. So if the PV is $600 million (on base case assumptions like $540/oz gold, $2.25 copper, $7.80 nickel) and current market cap is almost $500 million, then there's about a 20% undervaluation.

Of course reserves can be expanded and metals prices are currently higher, so the potential upside is greater yet. Reserves are actually huge so good potential for reserve upgrades, but fairly low grade. But if the market price is right...

8% of dilution in the wings with warrants at $4, so could be some resistance there, and that's about where it sits now. Anybody notice Yahoo charts is hooped and it's data hasn't been updated since March 29th? same thing fir US Gold...

http://www.investertech.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=PLM&prt=0&wt=0

At any rate, PLM had a nice consolidation period up until April 1, then took off like a rocket adding about 35% since then. I guess shareholders like the dilution... Daily and weekly RSI's are 80 and 82, and I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable jumping on at this point. Needs to pull back to consiladate here for a while me thinks. Mind you, I said that about Blue Pearl at 12 and it's now at 17 :(

Oh yeah, probably the most important part, management. It has 8% insider ownership. Read through management bio's but nothing jumped out that would make me think that there is a prominent jockey to be betting on here.

Happy trading

I am so sorry about what happened in Viginia yesterday, i have three children of school age and this troubles me very much, hopefully any and all coverage, regardless of how endless it may seem, turns out for the positve.
The crystallex drama keeps on rolling, thank you wsj, but for everyone selling there are still those buying, and the early volume is heavy, i wonder who is doing the buying ? Long kry.

"I’m starting to feel like 4Q99 or maybe Sept. 1987: all news is good news."

Bill, I couldn't agree more. Stocks that meet expectations are up substantially, while those that disappoint are off only marginally. It's a fool's paradise.

2nd_ave - Any thoughts on the uxg drop? Profit-taking? I was looking for an opportunity like this.

Dear Bill and Company,

I put on some KRY at the open at $3.84

Chris

Bill did you hear an Uranium ETF is on the way, what took these jive-artists so long? Now that hedge funds have "officially" cornered the market, the sell signal approaches!

Bill to answer your question:

"We are in an environment where increased debt (not sustainable corporate fundamentals) is pushing private equity deals to be completed at very high prices. For whatever real reason these deals are being done (typically for it’s to gain control), the public market trader is following along with speculative purchases. As long as they have access to cash, these speculators are driving market prices higher. Speculation is not sustainable."

Sallie Mae is a classic example of the status quo; screw J6P and pensions holding the bonds while skimming and stealing Asian equity invested in stocks. LBO's are always the last shoe to drop as you well know based on RECENT history!

I join with others that have profited mightedly by participating in some junior gold miners. Whenever the general mkt floundered my gold positions gave real backbone to my port. I felt invulnerable... not a good emotional sign for successful investing. Today the miners are getting some negative reality. My own positions include: gld, slw,gdx,eza, gfi,kgc, wdgf and grz. Portfolio is about 18% in this sector. I've been following this blog for little less than two months. No big bets above, most concentration on gld.

I am quite interested in Bill's reference to a trust. Look forward to this option. Much rather he have his hands on the wheel.

Meanwhile, I welcome other's thoughts on use of selling. I see that some sold into strength and others are adding on dips. I prefer holding longer term..a loosely relative term. While I know that playing the nimble trader is not me, I may need to learn some new rules.

Glad to see CNBC recycling the countdown ticker to DOW ATH. I feared for a bit that this nice game show prop would be retired for a while. Now traders have a real exciting goal to shoot for, just like regular folks on Deal or no Deal. Forget risk management, let's go for the prize.

Bill & number2son,

I am not sure with the 4Q99 analogy. I recall the deep belief among experts that the paradigm had really changed for stock valuation (and the small investor's frenzy to chase the new riches that seem to easy to pass on - just like RE two years ago). It may apply to the Chinese market today. While I have sketchier recollection of Sep. 87 (being a student not involved daily in the market at the time), the current soothing chant "everything is allright" (despite tangible risks and macro concerns) seems like a good echo of that time. Unlike then, we may best the previous highs this time around.

JML

The YTD behavior of GE is the "tell" for what is soon to be.

Rick45,

A Uranium "ETF" style security (U - TSX) has been trading on the TSX for the past 2 years if you are interested.

http://www.uraniumparticipation.com/

I got into U.TO last July at 8.00. Has done very well. Sprott have introduced similar vehicle for Moly. Mly.to. Took position today while the going is good.

esbisworried -

I agree with you that GE's lack of participation should act as a warning sign for the market with one big caveat in my view. Over their recent past, traders have apparently discounted their bellwether status due to their ownership in NBC Universal. If they end up executing the (expected) spin-off in 2008/9 if memory serves me right, the stock may trade again more in-line with true worldwide economic conditions.

JML

In my scan this morning, the only potential shorts that came up were QID, SDS, and DXD ;-)

Well, F too, I'm kicking myself for not shorting at 8 on the open...

Short *this* market - YIKES! - you want to be the *last* one to short (literally, after everyone else has been shaken out).

Watching this melt-up, and learning from the last one ...

t4k

A note on the unexpected increase in housing starts: Has anyone asked the question of who is going to buy these homes as realtors are finally admitting that sales traffic has been much lower than expected for this time of year? Won't that add to the high going higher inventory numbers?
Thanks

ALOHA !!

Yes, another significant covering by Goldman Suchs of some 8,302 short contracts which brings their total short contracts on the TOCOM to 23,019.

To understand what this means last year at this time Goldman short contracts were above 35,000 and into the 50,000 range when POG was rising to $730USD. They have been steadily reducng the range of contracts and are now trading in a channel below 35,000 quantity and in fact have now, perhaps started a trading channel below 25,000 contracts.

That tells me that the Goldman TOCOM short position reflects a dwindling supply of central bank gold supply with which to suppress the gold price. In the event the IMF does actually sell OPG "Other Peoples Gold" I believe that would signal "desperation mode" for the central bankers, even though it would temporarily bring the POG down. Remember the original reason for the IMF to sell gold was so that they could essentially "keep their doors open" ... I personally would prefer they just close up shop! You can add in the World Bank also ... These banks are designed to confiscate wealth not create it! Central banks have proven that their only real skill is to kill currencies and transfer wealth to elite bankers and corporations. There is nothing "altruistic" in their tactics.

Bottomline ... Goldman is indicating a higher gold price, but also note they have almost no "long position" in gold ... yet!

Regarding SLW recent run-up:

Silver Wheaton buys 25% of Penasquito silver production

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Silver Wheaton Corp. has agreed to pay Goldcorp $485 million in cash to acquire 25% of the life-of-mine silver produced from Goldcorp's Penasquito project, the companies said late Monday. In addition, Silver Wheaton has agreed to pay an ongoing per-ounce operating cost payment equal to the lesser of $3.90 and the prevailing market price per ounce of silver delivered under the contract. The deal is expected to close by May 31. Vancouver, B.C.-based Silver Wheaton said with the acquisition it now expects to have annual silver sales of 22 million ounces in 2009, rising to 26 million ounces by 2012, and to increase its attributable proven and probable silver reserves by 144 million ounces to 278 million ounces.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7bB3071F96-A2F4-40BF-BC44-7CAA89CD43C0%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Good afternoon, Bill.

Sper0032, thanks for posting the slw deal on penasquito. I think the downward pressure that's been on slw since november is now lifted and it's open sky once 12.12 is surpassed.

kaimu,

Confessions of an Economic Hitman spills the beans, so to speak, about the World Bank. The book is a good read A friend of mine's son works for them. He dispells much of the imperialistic policy of the world bank as out of date characterization. Cultures, i think, die slower deaths but i'm not sure what to believe. My gut suspects it is still about making deals to get a new military base sequestered on foreign soil.

Jumble,
GE has a high profile in my current hometown of louisville. I took a large buy-hold position in 2003. Very disappointing. I bought into their re-structuring story. On paper GE has everything a developing country could want and a better history than most for having sustained relations with those countries, not to mention taking stakes in the themes of energy and health that will be with us for a long time. A friend of mine whom i don't do business with but consider to be veteran independent thinker broker at smith barney believes that the street has very very little faith in ge's story. It has been in everyone's portfolio/mutual fund and, thus, too vulnerable to constant selling pressure. This MAY be the underlying dynamic more so than the longer existing perception that ge is mainly a finance company proxy for our economic health. Just a wild guess by a frustrated believer.

Sometimes I really hate stop limits... my UXG was stopped out in the low 6s (I had 10% protection).

I finally get to the computer today and I see it down only 2.5%!!!

eric/rusticuf,

i took uxg earlier in the am, and exiting now. somehow i see gold backing down for awhile before it breaks above 700.

re SLW
in a research note this morning, RBC Capital increased its PT to $17.

Quoting extracts regarding the Penasquito purchase: "No New Equity...Overhang to Vanish? SLW has already secured bank debt to fully fund...cash upfront purchase price. We believe SLW shares have been held back as investors anticipated a medium to large equity financing requirement to fund a Penasquito transaction...we consider this a win-win transaction for the two parties."

Believing as I do that the price of silver will rise, I have taken my position in SLW by purchasing warrants - SLW.wt.TO. The premium is miniscule; 45% more leverage; and not expiring 'til aug/09.

regards all,

joey

Me too.
Bought at 6.20 and sold at 6.77. Around an 8.3% gain. Not bad work if you can get it.

If it comes back near 6 I'm in for a bit more.

Wouldn't it really get though if you came back w/o stops and it gapped down a couple bucks?

Earlier in the year Bill mentioned High River Gold. HRG.T. Had a nice pop today. Getting ready to pour gold.

last week, someone - as I recall, Jock, perhaps? - was looking for an 'evaluating junior miners ' article, posted last year...

I don't know about that article; but here's a link to a couple of articles on Doug Casey's site:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/miningUniversity.php

joey

Theo I know was refering to here in U.S., notice nat. gas ETF opening as well.

2nd Ave & Craig - Thank you for your posts. I operate on a longer time frame obviously, but would love to hear what drove your intraday decisions today for learning purposes.

"81.64 -0.23 today" at 11:43 EDT

So the IMF dumps a block to defend $ 80 at all costs, the long-term C.B.'s realize PM's are but a small fraction of total "goosing" per stock/bond futures and derivatives. As long as the hedgehogs keep delivering 10% a year all is well regardless of what J6P does....

You know any J6P's that have P.M.'s burried under their sub-prime home containing plenty of canned-goods and bottled-water?

From Mike Maloney at GoldSilver.com (4/16/07)

"On October 4th 2006, the Dow broke its old high of 11,750 set back on January 14th 2000, and from then on all you heard from the financial press was "Dow sets a new, all time, record high"… at least that's all you heard until the correction on February 27th, 2007.

I just don't get it. How can anyone at this point in time (including the financial press) believe they are actually making gains being invested in general equities? On February 20th, the Dow hit its "brand new, all time, record high" of 12,795, and at the writing of this article hovers at 12,560, 6.9% above its 2000 high.

A 6.9% gain over the entire 7-year period… hasn't anyone heard of inflation? Don't investors know that if their portfolio doesn't outpace inflation they are actually losing ground?

The Dow is actually crashing, but if you have not yet educated yourself on the insidious ravages that inflation can have on your portfolio, you can't see it. This is a blind spot investors must be mindful of, and guard against, if they are to prosper.

Anytime that it looks like everything is going up, stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and virtually every kind of investment there is, you have to stop and ask yourself, "why?" The only reason the Dow looks like it is going up is because the Fed has pumped so many more dollars into the currency supply, that all asset classes are rising.

Under these conditions, the only way to see where true value lies is to eliminate the dollar from the equation… you have to measure each asset class, not with the dollar, but against another asset class.

Now here's the story in pictures that proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the stock markets are crashing. You’ve heard the saying "one picture is worth a thousand words". Well, one chart is worth a million numbers, because a chart is simply a picture of at least two sets of numbers, in this case, the price of an item and the date that the item was at that price. Later, I use charts that are a picture of three sets of numbers, the date and the price of one item, divided into the price of another item. These "ratio" charts are my favorites because they reveal true value, and the true direction something is headed. I love charts.

So to get a picture of what's going on with stocks, I took the Dow as a proxy for stocks and measured it against everything else I could possibly think of. To do this I took the Dow and divided it into the price of the other asset I am measuring it against. If the Dow is rising faster than the investment I am measuring it with, the chart will be rising. If the investment that I am measuring the Dow with is rising faster than the Dow, then the chart will be falling.

When I say buy or sell the Dow in this article, I'm just talking about value. I know that you can't actually buy or sell a share of the Dow. If you want to do that, you've got to use the Dow ETF (exchange traded fund) known as the Diamonds (stock symbol DIA)… In my opinion however, it's not a very good idea right now."

Anyone have any comments on Dean Foods (DF)?

The special dividend brought the share price down somewhat.... seems to be recovering.

LOL! You mean besides greed with a little g?

My decision was based on knowing that in the near term gold is going up, so today was a pullback in PM's to buy, IMO. UXG was down to $6 and was coming back so I didn't get the extreme low in relative strength or price, but it was still down about 8-9% so it screamed buy to me. I didn't expect it would go up over 8% to me in two hours, but I don't look a gift horse in the mouth so I traded the RS and price and took my profit when RS was a strong as I felt I could get it.

That and I had to get down to my brokers office to feed my Roth and I didn't want to baby sit or take the chance of it stopping me out.

Dear Everyone,

I hate being early. I bought more KRY at the close, 3.72

Cmon, Hugo!

Thanks Craig - wasn't sure if it was RSI or something you noticed int he gold chart.

Shark_attack - I was just about to ask about KRY. I was looking to initiate a position and was wondering was drove the action today and whether this was a good accumulation opportunity.

MU - sold today for a 4% loss. Breaking prior support levels. Had risen to 12.25 a week or so ago. Still bouncing around.
SNDK, AMGN - still holding. SNDK is weakening. Would probably sell around 40 if it goes that far.
Would still have a decent gain. SNDK bought on 3/1. Above is just statment of fact and NOT advice. Wish I had held on to JNJ.

Bill, et al,
TM is right on its weekly uptrend line going back to June '05, at least
so far this week. The 120 level nearby is support from a wide bowl
carved out during the May '06 correction. I'm tempted to scale in now
as the stop is nearby.

Speaking of the yen, $XJY weekly thus far on track to carve an inv H&S
(one possibility I mused about a month ago). The primary downtrend
from Jan '05 is now just under 86. Interestingly, it was tested twice, May '06
and last Feb/Mar, and held. There is a slightly steeper downtrend
from May '06 that was broken last Feb. Since then, $XJY has drifted
lower in what looks like a bullish wedge on the daily. It's right on top
of this broken downtrend (if you draw through the candlestick bodies),
which is bullish until proven otherwise. Neckline is at 86, measured
move if a breakout were to occur would be to 90.
Now all this is somewhat premature, but a heads up for those who
believe that the yen carry trade impacts the mkts, to watch what happens
the next few weeks. If the yen rallies, I'm wondering whether gold and
gold stks get sold off as before, or is it different this time around.
(Reminds me of Lucy asking Charlie Brown to kick the football...)

what is the price target on kry?

ALOHA !!

Anyone looked at the base metals lately? Not only the price but more importantly the warehouse inventories ...

GFMS up to close at record high 363.43
SHANGHAI METALS INDEX at highs of 39183

Copper up 4.36% today to $3.68
Inventories at record five year low down 83%, down 14% over the past month.

All base metals finished up today ...

Link: http://www.nowandfutures.com/metals.html

Yamana Gold must be getting nervous since they hedged copper production at $4 last year. Have any of these producers ever heard of "monetary inflation"?

Kaimu:
Yamana Gold getting nervous?
I beg to differ.
As I understand it, YRI has hedged 50 mill lbs in 2007; and 130 mill lbs in 2008.
The 2006 annual report asserts that YRI has proven and probable reserves of 23 billion lbs of contained copper, as of dec 31,2006.
I am happily long (lot and lots of warrants) and happy that 22.8 billion lbs of unhedged copper remains to be recovered and sold.
anyway, I appreciate your copper inventory report.
regards,
joey

Kaimu,

Is it me or did the Molybdendum chart at the bottom of the page on your link get reeeally big. The blinking animation really catches the eye too.

Those animated gif charts are expensive to make.

"Molybdenum continues to outshine all other metals" indeed!

Adanac, the company that supplied the chart lists on the TSX in June. What do you think MLY is going to do by then?

http://www.adanacmoly.com/

ALOHA !!

joey ... Whats the difference between an unhedged producer selling at or above spot price during an inflationary period and a hedged producer selling below spot price?

Sure Yamana has other assets that are unhedged however I am sure management is not going to be happy selling below spot. If they are then I suggest you, as a shareholder, should protest loud and clear!

As an aside many of the miners also hedge against fuel costs by gambling in the commodity futures market. One such miner that does that is Golden Star Resources(GSS). There are of course many others like Newmont, etc ... You have to read the fine print buried in their financials. They never highlight this info since they don't want egg on thier face.

I object as a shareholder when management hedges in any way during an "inflationary" environment and takes income to hedge oil prices in the futures casino. They need to stick with what they do best ... I will assume that is "mining"!

wavesmash ... I believe moly spot prices will be higher, especially as nickel inventories diminish to zero and adding more applications in many industries, including nuclear.

Also the Sprott Assets group with their latest Moly Fund(MLY)has but one purpose ... to buy public and private companies mining and holding either moly rserves or inventories. That can't but help drive up the price of some of the more prospective juniors and miners.

rusticuf: it was the V move. Sometimes I enter a position with the intent of a longer-term trade, but if the market hands you an 8% return in 4 hours, what would you do?

More contrarian analysis from Mark Hulbert pointing to higher stock prices: http://tinyurl.com/2g6ykv
I have to say these columns from Hulbert have been prescient: things tend to play out exactly as predicted.