hello from germany

no sping bounce for dr horton... orders down 37%!

Those who piled into commercial property risk a shock

Current recovery great for profits, poor by most other measures

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

have a golden day....680!

Speaking of gold, Gold Fields ran into unfavorable conditions at the Beatrix mine. More importantly the article eludes to a "not too hot" results coming on earnings call May 3, according to this Reuters article.

http://tinyurl.com/2dwfmw

They tried Bill, they tried. A possible Dow buyout was all over the press but that uptick in rates seemed to me to take the life out of the party. Again, by Wednesday close I think, we will see some red on our screens.

Taking note of MarkM's call and may try putting on another short today or tomorrow. Not that I've had much success with SDS...

Bill,

Why would Buffet buy railroads when these are almost trading at such high levels not to mention a slowing economy. I thought Buffet is the best value investor in the world. Am I missing something ? TIA

Amex having a precious and base metals conference.
http://www.amex.com/?href=/atamex/news/events/MetalsConference2007.jsp

It's to be available as a webcast, but doesn't tell you how yet. A number of companies discussed here will be presenting.

4th Annual Precious and Base Metals Conference


Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Click on each Amex-listed company's name below for a detailed description, fundamentals and delayed quotes:

Time Company Presentations

8:35 AM Banro Corporation
8:35 AM Vista Gold Corporation
9:10 AM Western Goldfields, Inc.
9:10 AM Crosshair Exploration & Mining Corp.
9:45 AM Uranerz Energy Corp.
9:45 AM Full Metal Minerals Ltd.
10:20 AM Gammon Lake Resources Inc
10:55 AM Endeavour Silver Corp
10:55 AM Solitario Resources Corporation
11:30 AM Quaterra Resources
11:30 AM Silvercorp Metals Inc.
1:15 PM Aurizon Mines Ltd
1:15 PM Augusta Resource Corporation
1:50 PM Western Copper Corporation
1:50 PM Uranium Star Corp.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Click on each Amex-listed company's name below for a detailed description, fundamentals and delayed quotes:

Time Company Presentations

8:05 AM Quadra Mining Ltd.
8:40 AM Minefinders Corporation Ltd
9:15 AM Dejour Enterprise Ltd.
9:50 AM Miramar Mining Corporation
10:25 AM Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.
11:00 AM Northgate Minerals Corp.
11:35 AM Central Fund of Canada Limited/Central Gold-Trust
12:15 PM Gold Reserve Inc.
12:45 PM Entree Gold Inc.
1:20 PM Metallica Resources Inc.
1:55 PM Orezone Resources Inc.
2:30 PM PolyMet Mining Corp.
3:05 PM New Gold, Inc.
3:40 PM Exeter Resource Corporation
4:15 PM Richmont Mines Inc.

Couldn't agree with your comments more about the conduct of these various BOD's & CEO compensation Bill. I tend to vote with my pocketbook so no reward will be contributed by moi to these entities.

GFI is up .19 in the pre-market this morning...;)

GLD is up .92 as well....yee-ha!

"but raised the Price Target to $52.50 from $52."

Why even bother to raise it--it seems so foolish.

By my read the gold stocks are poised to make a move. The XAU/Gold ratio has moved off the extremes I pointed out and the charts say a breakout, one way or the other, is imminent. Very tight coiling action that will resolve.

With the fundamental background being what it is and the US trying to destroy its own currency by going into protectionist mode, I have a hard time believing that gold suffers right here.

bb,

thanks! i want to listen to all of those calls.
as far as how to listen, they have updated the site with a small speaker icon that you can launch at the time of the call that looks like this. http://www.vcall.com/images/button_listen.gif

I hope they offer a replay if i miss it.

uxg on the move

So are we working with the Cara 97?

Are we looking for replacements?

Jockey making a move? UXG up 6.99% (10:08 a.m.) after reporting encouraging results.

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070410/0236752.html

Long UXG

MarkM, I agree with what you're seeing, but do you see stocks like SLW moving along with XAU components when the "coiling resolves"?

Bought some additional share of SLW recently as the 3-year chart seems range-bound over the past year or so and not overbought. SLW seems to be a favorite on this board.

Bill, appreciate your note on Uranium, tried to get in to one of the producers this morning (URRE) but got too rich too quick in early trading.

Long gold, silver, uranium stocks and gold and silver bullion.

CNBC does a great job of "marketing" the HB&B wares. It's all a very incestuous relationship. Buyer beware!

The world knows about CEO over-compensation, but few seem to care. You can "vote with your feet" but unless more do so, such voting just allows the abuse to continue.

It seems the more "inside" you are, the more you tolerate this, because "you're getting yours too." Aren't society's institutions set up to benefit insiders and screw outsiders to the extent they can get away with it?

Bill, can you comment on UXG's drill results?
EJ

No talk of deals? 50 million for Dow Chemical doesn't constitute deal talk, nor does a sale of Mirant, for double digit figures in the billions?

Talking about irresponsible, CNBC is having a special all day called 'Time to Buy' real estate! Caught five minutes of it this morning. One of their questions to viewers is "can you get more or less house for your money in your neighborhood this year versus last?" Talk about spin!

My miners are doing well here. They are really starting to outperform the market the last two weeks. Bill was right about the Euro rally exceeding 1.32 as being a catalyst for PM outperformance.

Addendum -- Long UXG. Probably going longer...

marginnayan

Rail traffic down accross the board. {Intermodal rail traffic is imported goods in trailers that are offloaded directly from ships at port onto rail cars}

http://www.transmatch.com/
click on Railfax Carloading Report

DOW - whatever the truth about a possible deal (and quick debunking of the rumors by analysts and the company), these repeated rumors keep ratcheting the price up with subsequent retracements not fully giving back the gains. If some global player wants to upload a large piece accumulated last year, what better than troll through the City's pubs on Friday afternoon and brag about the next great deal within hear shot of a tabloid guy?

MarkM et al. - I share your view that this market is getting winded. Likely, AA's report may be a good excuse to lock some gains. I am more interested to see how GE's earnings are handled on Friday. As Bill keeps pointing out, GE and the market have diverged since Jan. If the report confirms the price action, I would expect a quick sentiment change and louder cries about bad earnings in the pipeline. Conversely, we may see the next leg up as the bellwether would reassure everybody. BTW, I would love to grab some GE down in the low 30s.

JML

Great post Bill. It was like a mini weekend recap.

The dollar is sinking at an alarming pace today. Approaching the crucial 1.35 mark you talked about.

Also, I met the CEO of Target a year ago and he is a man not concerned with much more than his compensation. Everyone else around him seems to care more than him. However, I heard that he started out in the company as a cart attendant so maybe some of that work ethic is still there somewhere.

Gold is really poking at that 680 resistance recently, and I think that the dollar and oil as well as technical factors will push it there.

For those of you that like to play shorts, I am currently short USNA. The company is a giant pyramid scheme posing as a vitamin company. I wouldn't recommend shorts to most people, but USNA bilked my older sister out of quite a bit of money (compared to her income) so it is personal.

Happy Trading

This link provides data on Executive Compensation for all your favourite executives.

http://www.aflcio.org/corporatewatch/paywatch/ceou/database.cfm

Bill,

Thanks for your blog comments on US Gold last week.

The Federal Reserve Monopoly Over Money by Ron Paul
http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul380.html

Well, today I'm sitting in the corner with my dunce cap on.

I sold my UXG yesterday.

And folks, in case you think this is a fluke, I did the precise same thing about 2 weeks ago with RNO.

Ironically, I used those proceeds to buy UXG.

Behold n2s, the trading genuis!

Who can't even spell "genius" correctly.

jumble-

I see the Fed Minutes release as the "excuse" to start taking profits. I doubt there is any bull case fodder in there. I may be off by a day but this has come far enough, and the data trends are bad enough, for some positions to start being unwound. JMHO.

Thank you Bill for IVN gui'dance' last year, it's a true winner and just keeps on keeping on ;)

MarkM,

Agreed. The release of Fed minutes provides a good market-wide signal to reasses direction. In the face of degrading economic data, I can't believe that any serious player still holds any hope of Fed support near term. You may be right that a downdraft will ensue (esp. if the markets cannot decidedly close the Feb. 27 gap beforehand).

I have become a bit more cynical re: the past three weeks' move. I am intrigued by a scenario Lee Wheeler @ Wall Street Examiner (http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/) advanced early March (http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/?p=123)i.e. a higher high on major indexes by April end/early May that fails to recapture the Nov.-Feb. trendline and provides a second strong selling campaign into the summer.

I will keep a very interested eye on this weekend's G7 gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors. While I expect innocuous public statements (maybe a repeat concern about excessive speculation/liquidity - I doubt that they would want to create a currency blow-up obver the weekend), the next two/three weeks may prove extremely instructive as they go back to their respective staff to implement their agreement (or lack thereof). Whether cooperative or not, some adjustments should affect the currency markets and spill over throughout (In Feb., the last was about three weeks).

JML

HOLY!

UXG.TO up 43%.

n2s,

I feel your pain...I sold KRY the morning of the price breakout (pre breakout). I caught the move today in UXG...want to know the difference? Since the KRY trade I finished a fantastic book, maybe the best I've read on trading, called 'Trading in the Zone' by Mark Douglas. It's all about psychology and how your emotions (pain and joy) both work against you when it comes to the market. I highly recommend it to everyone.

Good luck.
-Brian

My deduction is now to accumulate UXG on any pullback. I have been too afraid to bet on just the jockey alone. But they do have a great land package and a great ceo, but now the pudding is also sweet. Dont feel bad n2s or began329. Do i wish i owned uxg yesterday? Sure. but also, would i have paid 40% insurance premium last month if I knew there was a lot of gold in the ground? yep.

Speaking of CEO compensation, Nepotism (it's fairly strong here in Honolulu) is an article about China (although the facts/statements are not verified). These issues are a world-wide phenomena.

Nepotism I
Have China Scholars all been bought?
A bit of a rambling essay, but an important subject. Not sure about the conclusion that the Chinese government is actually a Mafia. Don't think that is really a very accurate comparison. It is much more complex than that. I have been thinking about German National Socialism (Nazi) as a comparative for the current Chinese government. I think that there may be quite a few similarities in both political and economic policy. Of course the absence of the single figurehead in China is a major drawback to the theory. Likely the CCP is pretty much what it is meant to be, a Leninist party organization.
There is a very interesting statistic in the article which, if true, is just staggering. I wish I knew if it was true. If it is, I would share it with every Chinese person I know. It certainly feels true, but how to verify?
We ignore the fact that of the 3,220 Chinese citizens with a personal wealth of 100 million yuan ($13 million) or more, 2, 932 are children of high-level cadres. Of the key positions in the five industrial sectors—finance, foreign trade, land development, large-scale engineering and securities—85% to 90% are held by children of high-level cadres.
Here is a link to a blog entry doubting the stat:
Be wary of statistics on China

The links for China:

http://www.feer.com/articles1/2007/0704/free/p036.html

http://washingtonbureau.typepad.com/china/2007/04/be_wary_of_stat.html#comment-65756990

n2son,

I emailed my wife this morning to alert her about UXG (which she picked up a little over 5 a few weeks back), and she bailed at 4.99...and she has a copy of Trading in the Zone on our bookshelf...

number2son said, Behold n2s, the trading genuis! I got a good laugh out of that.

N2s, when trading things like this happen. The most important thing you can do is review why you sold to see if it was a valid reason, if not, try not to repeat the action. Having known that the drilling results were due, I was in for the event, good/bad.

I generally will not hold into earnings announcements. To me it is like a coin flip. If the earnings are good I can then re-enter and if not I avoid getting killed. Again the key is try to learn something from the event that will help you in the future. You will have hundreds of other opportunities going forward.

T3D

CEF, actually having a good move here today. I’m only .25 cents away from getting even when my trading genius was in effect on 2/27/07. That day pre-market gold was ripping and CEF was flat. So I brought expecting a catch-up, instead in about five minutes later, CEF announced a offering at a much lower price and I was down about -7% in minutes. Now, since I think we are in a long-term bull move for gold I stayed long thinking that if I’m correct the market will bail me out. So far so good!?

So we all have our trading genius days. Good luck to all.

Gee, UXG is -15.55% off its intraday high.

Unlike you, N2S, I am riding high on UXG today.

Though I bought it at 500. I guess that dilutes bragging rights a little.

Bill,

Do you have comments on today's news that IVN has nailed down a deal with the Mongolian government, and the resulting spike in price today? I recall that you had posted an exit number several months ago. What concerns me is that we know nothing about what % the Mongolians have cut themselves, and the details of the agreement. As far as I'm concerned, this race is over, the horse is in the winner's circle, and the jockey will be dis-mounting SHORTLY (pardon the pun)...... time to take the long-awaited profit.

Bill et al,

I am long ATVI right now, and the industry is looking really strong right now (discounting a less than stellar month of japanese hardware sales). Nintendo is about to report its huge profits on the 26th, which will probably have some kind of positive impact on ATVI.
On the other side of the coin, the RSI indicator is above 70, so I'm not sure if I should try to sell once it starts to turn downward and then open a long position after a drop, or simply hold on to it.
Also if anyone could give me insight on that big jump up to 19.75 today and tell me if that looks like a resistance level or just a pop up then back down for little reason?

Just thought I would post a link to the ATVI chart.

http://tinyurl.com/33am77

Mark M., given the expectation that the market declines this week (or in the next week or two), do you think one is better off in one of the physical gold funds (like GLD) or the miners, or USD cash? I appreciate hearing your POV.

ALOHA !!

Sorry to hear about the UXG sellers. I added to my position a week ago, when I posted here that I thought it reflected fair value at $4.30USD, just based on the "Newco" size(sans drill results)! I plan to add more shares on dips ...

I still believe POG is not out of the woods yet in the short term, meaning the next few months. Don't get me wrong I believe that it is highly likely that the POG will rally first, but just like last year(May-June)at this time I believe the BIG rally will be taken back down, as part of the $730USD POG correction. I am not convinced that the US dollar is totally dead and I believe another DOW plunge will drop all PMs, mainly with the help of the PPT. Under both those circumstance they would have to kill off a gold rally. Right now they are in a "capping mode" ...

What happens if the FED raises rates or even announces a 1/4 point hike? Also has anyone here considered the effect on the US Dollar if the Libs get their wish and the USA pulls out of the Middle East. That would be a cause for a USDX rally, although not long lived, since the spending/debt damage will be done! I also note all the salivating "GOLD TO THE MOON" news articles I see everywhere like Kitco, etc ... I have cash on the side for the next massive PPT attempt at a POG takedown ... To be honest, at this point, I would prefer another BIG chance to load up!! Of course all those bets are off if either Israel of the USA attacks Iran ...

I am long gold/silver and UXG and other shares.

Telestar noticed CEF up 3% today on double+ avg. vol., feeling pretty good right about now placing a client in there at $ 9.50 last Thurs. many tailwinds favoring Bill's crew right now:

1). Bond Market giving up 25-30 b.p. last 45 days with that equity chasing P.M.'s, Soybean, Corn, Crude,and Copper.

2). Dollar got hit hard today, Euro broke resistance

3). Dollar is establishing a "comparitive advantage" per trade as Galbraith use to say.

4). China will start dumping even more paper!

5). Beige book and ECB rate hike would be the grandslam.

At this rate suppose the Jays will win the series and the Sharks will bring their first cup to Silicon Valley (they do have the best player in the league in Joe Thorton-a Canadian no less).

Q: What could go wrong Bill?

A: A token rate hike may be in the cards as a reminder that atleast in the short-term the Feds. can take a whack at P.M's! Housing is already in a multi-year recession regardless of what they do now.

CSX got downgraded today, perhaps its time for W.B. to hang 'em up?

Bill I thought you might want to read this article in Bloomberg today.

This is why the USD could continue to weaken further:

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar's slide may be coming at the right time for U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.

American exports, made more competitive by a weaker currency, are helping prop up economic growth, offsetting slumps in housing and corporate spending. The euro's 2.5 percent gain since the end of January, meanwhile, should help Trichet combat inflation, complementing the ECB's interest-rate increases.

http://tinyurl.com/2glo2j

Kaimu,

I did a little browsing on the web today. Is it safe to assume that you also like Goldrea, seeing as it is part of that little incubator you were mentioning? This one has jumped nicely since early February. I agree with accumulating on any pullbacks. Take confidence to go 'against the crowd' like this.

Bill or Kaimu,

I'm wondering if you happened to hear/learn anything else about the hedged financing for WGI? This is going back to an April 2 entry, where some thought that hedging 430,000 against an annual production of 168,000 may not be such a great thing. Forgive me if I'm mistaken, truthfully I still have a lot to learn about analyzing the mining companies. Looking forward to that fund you have talked about. I have many friends that I am trying to educate/refer to this blog, among a few others, that would also be interested. I recommended John Embry's fund very recently to them.

Cheers.

PS: How about them Jay's???? Big Hurt bangin out a grand slam already??? Watch out Yanks!

Bill please take a look at "BUCY" per a possible addition to the Cara 100; its in the right space at the right time :) Talk about near-monopoly!

Bill, and all

What are your opinions about what Ron Paul is saying?

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8327695139643041382&q=ron+paul+duration%3Along

This is a speech of his back in august.

-Quentusrex

ALOHA !!

Eric ...

Goldrea
No I do not own Goldrea(GOR.V/GORAF.PK) because flat out I do not trust the Chinese government. I believe foreigners operating inside China could have their fortune(cookies)turn on a dime, especially US based corporations! That tradition has been around since the days of Marco Polo. You know ... and who can blame them? If you are okay with buying China then I think GOR.V is a worthy play. I personally believe there are better deals with less geopolitical risk. I have always thought that the easiest way for China to get even with the USA for holding worthless dollars(US currency crisis)is to confiscate US corporations operating in China.

Western Goldfields
I really don't understand why these small and not so small miners even consider a "non-recourse" loan. I know management is from Barrick Gold(ABX) so they are probably used to hedging. I have a policy where I do not hold companies that are hedged on a primary rising trend, period!

Let me get this straight ... WGI management is willing to commit up to 450,000 AU ozs of production in order to get a $105mil USD loan. I am not sure of the hedge structure but I can see thats a lot of insurance for a $105milUSD loan. The fact that management wants to commit 2.72 years worth of production(450,000/165,000) has me scratching my head in wonder! I assume the structure has some sort of spread ratio although to be honest I can't seem to find any "publicized" info on those details.

Back last year when I found out that Golden Star Resources(GSS:AMEX)was hedged I sold them. Please consider why it is Barrick(heavily hedged) sought to buy out Novagold(unhedged)? I have sold my WGDF shares ...

CORRECTION: on earlier post regarding C.A. should have read Samuelson not Galbraith.

All-

Some comments on aftermarket news. Read AA's release on earnings. The U.S. continues to be weak while the rest of the World makes up the difference. Profits are increasing. China continues to surprise to the upside.

Now the trade deficit figures. China trade surplus with U.S. DOUBLED last month.
Dollar reaction. Down. Gold up.

Now look at this chart

(http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p48124671342)

a NEW WAY. Take the early Spring spike when the momos and hedgies got ahold of the gold market and place a small piece of paper over it. Viola! What do you see? Is the chart confusing now? Is there a series of disturbing lower highs and a possible breakdown? The threat of moving back to 490 like all the commentators were saying? No! What you see is a relentless move upward that got interrupted in early 2006 by either 1) some testosterone looking for a quick play or, more darkly, 2) manipulation designed to prematurely send gold parabolic followed by a crash. Look at that blue moving average line. If this were a stock does the chart scream "I am on the move!"? It does to me. Anyway, something that I have been thinking about.

Re equities market direction. I am honored that some think I have the pulse of this thing. Like anyone though, it is just my opinion based on market action, chart reading and a little bit of psychology gleaned from my political days (advance work in the 1980s for various candidates). Soon I will be SPECTACULARLY WRONG, just as Leisa admonishes. ;) Maybe today. I see relentles pressure on an almost laughable trajectory under this market. I am long, enjoying the gains, but very wary.

2006 as Year of The Metals, Bill? I am starting to think that we are going to see double tops across the whole spectrum here as the CBs finally lose control of this monster they have created. Watch out on the other side of that one.

Quentusrex

Enjoyed the Ron Paul video....very good take on history.

Telestar3d, thanks for the kind words and good advice. I'm going to give my recent trading in UXG and RNO a good going over with the aim of understanding why I sold and why that was such a big mistake.

Regarding small cap sustainable energy stocks, a company I've been following for the past several months is HOKU. They manufacture polysilicon for use in solar material and have just started construction on a facility in Utah with production scheduled to begin late 2008 or early 2009. They have a contract with Sanyo to be their supplier.

The stock remains speculative. I don't own any right now as it's had a very strong run in the past month, but it's one I hope might come back to me.

MarkM -- we're all spectacularly wrong now and again. Some of us more often than others. ;)

Mark very much enjoyed reading your comments, thank you. We should compare notes sometime noting my experience in elected-office back in the nineties (i.e. local, state, and federal levels); even though I have been in academia part-time the last 10 years and am semi-retired (I own a small vineyard here in Napa Valley)I confess its quite refreshing to be a humble student once again (T.Y. Bill). Noting the spread between TIPS and the 10 year and the fact that petrol-demand in North America is up over 10% the last 12 weeks (I dont get this short of increased money supply, easy credit), I agree its time for P.M.'s and Crude to "fill the gap" some, however the summer will be HOT. Your implication of eventual deflation is understood, but it will take a while to get there.

(I could swear I posted this last night...)

ECB decides on rates tomorrow.

http://tinyurl.com/2h8a2d

They can leave them alone or raise them. Chances are negligible they will drop them...

I'd wager 7:10 they raise 0.25%.

If I'm reading this correctly, that would spell trouble for the dollar, trouble with US bonds and hence the market, and good for gold as Gutenbergnake will be loathe to follow suit.

Technically, the DOW30 has scored 8 consecutive days of advances; which to my unofficial reckoning is quite unusual.
The SP500 has scored 6 days of uninterupted advances; again, not so likely.
And with the exception of yesterday, the NASDAQ Composite has scored 8 days of advances.

Given this scenario, and without even the benefit of checking overseas markets:

http://tinyurl.com/ywz9k4

I'd bet on a drop tomorrow. I'll be curious if I see signs of the PPT in action. (My TIKI indicator of PPT action rang a bell at 2:15 EST)