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April 26, 2007
Cara’s Bull Board, Thurs., Apr. 26, 2007, 8:42 AM
The Dow (+136) and Nasdaq (+23) soared on Wednesday. Let’s say it was from strong earnings results from AAI, AMZN, ATAC, BA, BDK, BHI, LEA and WFT. Or maybe you wish to attribute the bullishness to M&A and the corporate restructuring of Alcoa (AA) and ANB AMRO Bank (ABN)?
Possibly it was the strong March durable goods orders data that came in a +3.4 pct, well above the +2.5 pct consensus, where the surprises were in civil aircraft (where the lift was in BA, RTN and TDY) and communications equipment (GLW, JDSU and RVBD).
The rally couldn’t be attributed to the bump in Crude Oil (+$1.25/bbl) or gasoline (+6.5 cents), which is normally a negative for transportation and utilities companies. That’s because the Dow Transports rocketed +2.1 pct and the Dow Utilities were up +0.9 pct, getting their fuel from some other source.
Maybe this market just wants to go higher. Or maybe there are just too many USD, Euro, Yuan and Yen chasing too few stocks (ie, the ones that private equity or corporate boards haven’t removed from the playing field)?
Excess liquidity typically means rising interest rates, which tends to happen after each Fed/Treasury pump job. So it follows that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note jumped +2 basis points (bp) yesterday to 4.65 pct.
I mean somebody has to pay for all this liquidity being provided by HB&B.
Was the Dow 30 hot or what? 29 of 30 were gainers and the sole loser 3M (MMM) was off just a bit (-0.04 pct).
So with the Dow Industrials, Transports and Utilities all in orbit, and Commander Twiggs reporting blue skies ahead, is our Spaceship Enterprise running clear? I say yes if gold and silver follow along for the ride. If not, I say no.
Why? Somehow, I don’t believe the economy is creating double digits EPS growth. I believe that having fewer shares outstanding is a bigger driver. In fact, if the stocks of certain companies are lighting up the sky but we have to hold our noses just to watch, then I say gold and silver have to be next on the launching pad. This reflation (extra debt to be used for share buy-backs) is, after all, the plan of Bernanke and Paulson, is it not?
The original plan was to cut the taxes of those who pay the most in order to allow them to buy more securities and real estate. But with military expenditures creating no new wealth, but in fact killing the $USD, some other plan had to be devised by Washington. And with the “Gold”man now running things at the Treasury and Fed, the plan to print more money was well received by fee-hungry banks.
So we are awash in liquidity (and debt too).
Even I have to admit that there are line ups to buy iPod’s, and restaurant reservations and airplane tickets are hard to come by and the gaming tables of Macau are flush with customers waving money. This isn’t just HB&B year-end bonuses either because the Average Joe has just paid the taxman and everybody still seems able and willing to throw money around. Mind boggling.
It is truly mind boggling when you think that banks are tightening up on the Liar Loans and the mortgage industry is crippled and, as we saw on Tuesday, existing home sales are way off, which has killed the so-called “wealth effect”.
Moreover, the US Jobless Claims data that will be out at 8:30am ET today will likely suggest that this excess cash is not coming from employers either.
I conclude then that those extra corporate dividends and proceeds of share buy-backs are really doing the job.
Now we have to wait until tomorrow to see if the US GDP growth is over a usually pathetic +2 pct and the core PCE price index is under +2 pct?
What happens, for example, if 1Q07 US GDP is +1.6 pct and core PCE price inflation is like +3.6 pct? Won’t we all be talking Stagflation instead of Goldilocks again?
Being good traders, we shouldn’t be worrying about this so-called noise though. Focused on share prices and Wall Street analyst guidance, we should just be thankful that the Old Bull himself, Merrill Lynch, has seen fit to upgrade CH Robinson Worldwide ($56.76) from a Neutral to a Buy after our community was buying in December at $42.
In our wildest dreams did any of us ever think there would be such a good take-out player as the Old Bull himself? Yes, the big winner yesterday was air delivery and freight services company CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), which rocketed +11.0 pct.
I happen to like CH Robinson and include it in the Cara 100. This is a company with a Return On Equity of close to 30 pct.
When I started blogging three years ago, CHRW was under $20. It closed today at $56.76, although with a PE in the mid-30's,and a Weekly-Daily RSI-7 of 72.5/85.6, I wouldn't be chasing it. The point is, just four months ago the Weekly-Daily RSI-7 was down close to 30/30, and the price at $40.
It may be a few days before the Old Bull reaches a few of the straggling herd out in the boondocks, to do his thing, so CHRW may even have a little juice left in it. But, as I say, I think it’s close to being done. Then again maybe a KKR, Blackstone or Brascan/Brookfield wishes to snap it up, load it with debt and roll it back out for public consumption. Who knows these days what’s really going on? When HB&B open their cheque book, even a solid bid of $91 billion is now being trumped (Money, Money, Money!) by $10 billion.
And we were taught to believe that money didn’t come from trees. How wrong our parents were. And their parents. Paper comes from trees!
Millions, billions, trillions. Do people really understand these terms or do they merely take them for words – with no debt attached. Can somebody really print an asset with no debt attached?
You see, unless you discover gold, you cannot print money by itself. There is always debt on the other side of the bookkeeper’s ledger.
Now, in time, that asset might grow, or it might decline. It might even disappear. But HB&B will go to the highest court of the land to ensure the offsetting debt does not diminish. We all know that, don’t we?
Isn’t that a banker’s motto, “Once in debt, always in debt.” There is even a Canadian bank – Scotiabank I think – that runs these incessant TV commercials, “You don’t know how rich you are,” meaning of course there is still some meat on the bones for the banker’s dinner table.
I shouldn’t be “bad” as a friend says. After all, I like Scotiabank. It’s the credit system I detest.
Actually, come to think of it, there is nothing wrong with the credit system if only we had an alternative debit system where credit was not permitted. If I could, you know, I’d just use a Debit card for everything.
Reminds me when, many years ago, I was checking into a hotel, and they wanted a credit card and I told them I only had a debit card, travellers cheques and cash. I’m sure the clerk wouldn’t have taken gold coins. When I asked what the hotel would take, she replied, “A credit card.”
The world is built on credit. Why? Fees, of course.
Recently, while early to the airport for a flight, I signed up for a new credit card that offered a free flight plus 15,000 air miles. Terrific. I signed. Two months later I got a bill for the $150 sign-up fee plus a $2.09 late charge. You got it. The card is still sitting in an unopened envelope somewhere, but now the banks have me on a Dubious Client List, owing them “late” fees.
What a sucker I am. We all are. Money, Money, Money. From our pockets to theirs.
Sooner or later, of course, this credit thing will bite them too. Mark my words.
Impressed by a Dow 30 being up +136 points, it was all green arrows in Asia-Pacific markets.
European markets are showing all green arrows this morning, too.
The $USD has been on a tear. Overnight, it rallied to a high of 81.747, now at 81.715. The chart looks great, but two days ago at this time $USD was 81.766 at this time.
U.S. Treasury Bond Jun. 2007 contract
The e-Mini Jun-07 oil contracts are at 65.475, and we are told this is down -0.365 today. Never mind that at this time yesterday the same contract traded at 65.025.
After a huge move down Tuesday to 681, Spot gold moved back above 686. Now there is a second shoe that has dropped. At 5:30am (time for the FOMC traders to start work?), the gold market started another huge move down. Presently spot gold is at 679.55.
I suppose we all need to watch the $USD, and it was just last evening when I remarked that $USD and Gold would likely start trading with a lower correlation. Apparently not. Not yet anyway.
Spot silver has moved sharply down to 13.57. This seems to be a statement that traders believe the better value is in paper stocks and $USD. This morning, anyway, they are thinking that.
It must be hard for others to hang in.
Spot platinum is at 1295, which is down -8 from this time yesterday, but a bounce up from 1294 at this time Tuesday.
Spot palladium is at 370 this morning, down -4 from this time yesterday, but only down -1 from this time Tuesday.
I continue to think the price will get through resistance at 380-384, and soon go higher. I also believe there will be a turn soon in the downward moves of the other precious metals. But I have my eye on the $USD.
With rising energy prices, $CRB moved back up to 314.33 from Tuesday’s 310.84. It did dip yesterday morning for a few minutes with bad econ data in the US, but rallied through the afternoon.
Cara 100 Stockwatch
Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Wednesday.
Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers
Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Wednesday.
Interactive chart of the top Watch List losers (Interactive link)
Here are the stocks of the Cara 100 for Wednesday that hit 52-week intra-day highs and lows.
There are various sources for up/down grades by broker-dealers. One is at Briefing.com. Traders ought to check everyday for ratings changes.
Here are the interactive charts of up to a dozen stocks with (unsmoothed) RSI-7 above 70 and below 30, from “Chris”:
That’s 34 stocks with a Daily RSI-7>70 and 1 (YHOO) with RSI-7 under 30.
Here are the current Cara 100 RSI-7 values, sorted by highest and lowest, first by Daily values and then by Monthly, prepared by “David” using TC2007 (Worden) [based on Welles Wilder smoothing], which is slightly different than the RSI-7 formula used by “Chris”.
Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading at extreme values:
Today I will be attending a hedge fund seminar. Actually I just want to go for the final panel and cocktails. Eric Sprott and Hugh Cleland Jr will be speakers.
Now if somebody there would just forget that he threatened to sue me over my comments referring to his company’s impact on uranium prices, I’ll get to enjoy that cocktail.
Have a great day. But let the teacher have that Apple. I say it has a RIM-like worm in it. Chris Cox (SEC Talking Head) says otherwise. Now who are you going to believe? Me or Cox's puppeteer?
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on April 26, 2007 08:42:52 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board
Discourse
Bill,
Do you have a link or resource for Interactive Broker that would help me determine price and how many shares of this IPO I would like to bid on? Fidelity has it available for there clients. Priced in range of 23 -27. Auction non traditional style. If I price it at 27, but only goes for 26, I get the lower price. If it's priced outside of the range, I'm notified and have a chance to bid at the higher price, all before it goes to open market the next day. Generally, the higher the price in the range the better the general mkt reaction. Any commentary on this ipo welcome!
Where did the name "cocktails" come from? It's really the "hors d'ouevres". Ditto
Posted by: jasper ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
April 26, 2007 8:59 AM [link]
WOW! 94 Cara 100 up -- only 6 down. Great stock picking -- really beats the Advance/Decline of the mkt overall!
Posted by: wabrew at
April 26, 2007 9:03 AM [link]
Ouch, looks like my gld ETF is gonna get hit hard. Sure would like to think that this just a period of adjustment between asset classes, namely dollar and gold. Because the contrarian view has the dollar jacking up: too much negative sentiment. Another ripple may be lower oil prices. Could this be why transports are smoking, or am I smoking something?
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 9:04 AM [link]
(Cara 100) ABB ops are electric in more ways than one:
ABB Quarterly Profit Beats Estimates on Energy Orders
By Antonio Ligi
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- ABB Ltd., the world's biggest builder of electricity networks, said first-quarter profit more than doubled, beating analyst estimates, as utilities in China and Europe upgraded power grids. Shares of the Swiss company climbed to their highest in almost six years.
Net income surged to $537 million from $204 million a year earlier, the Zurich-based company said today. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted $429 million. Revenue gained 21 percent to $6.2 billion, with quarterly orders also exceeding forecasts.
"These results are sensational," said Mark Diethelm, an analyst at Zuercher Kantonalbank in Zurich. "In Europe, the really big infrastructure upgrades have yet to come."
Posted by: Bill Cara at
April 26, 2007 9:16 AM [link]
I am a newcomer to this site - certainly one of the best if not the best I've found. Thank you for your insights. Recently MU was mentioned as being in the accumulation zone under $11 - wish I had bought then. When a Cara 100 stock reaches the one is it mentioned only in the daily blog or WIR, or is there a list of these values on the site I haven't found?
Thanks.
Posted by: Tarheel at
April 26, 2007 9:28 AM [link]
Since my recent performance has been sub-par, I'd like to announce to the stealth HB&B/PE readers of Bill's blog that I consider myself for sale like WEN, EK, AMD. Hey, if they can juice up their share prices, maybe I could get a bid too. Unfortunately, I can't buy myself back so don't bother offering some gigantic repurchase program to boost my confidence and bank account (I leave that game to KLAC, LLTC, IBM, AMZN, etc.).
As part of the ongoing search for the signs of a market top, I now would add to my watchlist a buyback/for-sale announcements by a few decent size cos. that fail to prop their stock price up. At this pace, the remaining shorts on specific names should be extinguished in short order (like most their bretherens who fled index shorting during this melt-up).
CNBC & sell-side talking heads bemoan the non-participation of retail investors in this rally. I haven't seen so much goading, pleading and showmanship to suck them back into the market. What happens if they don't (or can't due to housing/debt problems) join the party? Who will hold the bag this time? Fickle foreign investors? Institutionals? Copycat hedge funds?
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
April 26, 2007 9:29 AM [link]
wabrew,
The Cara 100 list captures the highest quality companies (business model, management, financial strength, and peer-beating operating performance over time). My mantra says that if traders avoid holding shares of lesser quality companies, or companies under regulatory investigation or being restructured, etc, then over time the share price performance will be better than average.
To do that, on the good market days like yesterday, I would expect the shares of C100 companies to outperform. In a down-turning market, I also believe that the shares of these companies ought not to suffer as much as the rest.
Although I blog the usual yada yada, I know most of my readers are very long-term oriented traders who understand that building wealth is a continuous process. I think they appreciate what I am doing with the Cara 100 series that I call the world's "best companies" (obviously those I have a bias for, and your picks would be different).
Soon, I will have a Cara Micro-cap 100 list because I think the character of trading markets is changing (stemming from increasing distrust of the vested interests behind large cap stocks). But, I also recognize that there is a need to expand the Cara Global 100 to a Cara 100 series for USA only, Canada/Latin America, UK/Europe, and Asia-Pacific. So, in time (late this year), I will expand the C100 series.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
April 26, 2007 9:31 AM [link]
marginnayan
CIBC Aeroplan. Probably available only in Canada. It's a terrific deal.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
April 26, 2007 9:35 AM [link]
any takers on slw (once again <11), gdx or gfi? leaning more towards the etfs this time (slv).
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
April 26, 2007 9:38 AM [link]
I have that CIBC Aeroplan Visa card too... I only got 10,000 points when I signed up, but you get 50% more points on groceries and pharmacy purchases. Definitely a nice card to have if you use Star Alliance airlines.
Posted by: Fazeli at
April 26, 2007 9:42 AM [link]
Tarheel, welcome aboard.
I only do RSI-7-based Accumulation/Distribution Zone data and discussion for the Daily Report and Week In Review. However, I am planning changes in the blog format that will include Cara 100 tables that will monitor AZ and DZ stocks.
I am also trying to finish a book manuscript that will more fully describe this approach to trading. The book will be available for purchase through this blog, other blogs and bookstores.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
April 26, 2007 9:42 AM [link]
Melt up on pace. The RSI on the averages are ridiculously overbought. The RSI 7 on the INDU is 86 and for the SPX it's 83.
Can it really keep going higher?
IndyMac (NDE) reports horrible results and horrible guidance and the stock trades up initially and is now selling off like crazy.
And don't get me started on the home builders -- PHM, MTH and RYL all reported last night. The fundamentals continue to get worse for the housing market and for these companies as their balance sheets grow weaker by the quarter. But who cares? The whole sector continues up, and is setting up for another very nice shorting opportunity.
What a great market for nimble traders. Unfortunately, I am not nimble.
Be careful everyone.
Posted by: number2son at
April 26, 2007 9:42 AM [link]
Hello Bill,
Maybe Hugh will sing the blessings of WGI to Eric Sprott. Either way please pass on any comments that Hugh may make in regards to Western.
Thankyou,
Tom
Posted by: golden7 at
April 26, 2007 9:47 AM [link]
Hi Bill,
yesterday you opined that when the price melt-up in gold comes, you believe that most of us readers will be shocked.
I know of course that what you write is only your opinion and that it is up to us to do our own due diligence. Do you think that when it comes (not if, when), that you may also be shocked at the fervor it creates, or speed or resilience? I really liked your post the other day about your personal allocation of capital, given your likely scenario's in the markets. I copied that one to Word, will print it out and post it to my wall. It's great knowing someone with a crystal ball. A million hits? I wouldn't be surprised to see that number blown away. Or is the truth what the people want to hear and read? Maybe the effort required to wrap your mind around some of your more lengthy posts (like the other day) is a little too much for those who do not wish to understand why market's work the way they do. Some would probably rather listen to a 'talking head' on CNBC with bells and whistles and surrounding euphoria tell them what to buy and what to sell. not why, but what.
Either way, I know that all of your readers clearly have a competitive advantage (like Mr. Porter would say).
Posted by: Eric at
April 26, 2007 9:47 AM [link]
For trades I've been looking at a relevant strength strategy using cara100. I've acted on only two of them some weeks back: sndk and gol.
Data is weekly. Last sunday night, a cluster of top picks weeded for overbought: whr,asd, abb, csco, and ntes. I'm looking at my review notes: for diversity I choose whr,abb, and ntes. However, earning reports were shortly due out so I considered too risky. Some traders have a rule:never hold thru earnings. I like to hold longer but I've seen the damage and it can be brutal. Any thoughts from others who are taking positions other than by Bill's strict value criteria?
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 9:56 AM [link]
opening positions in gdx/gfi/gg/slv...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
April 26, 2007 10:02 AM [link]
number2son,
Seldom does a broad market index reach such high RSI-7 values on the Monthly-Weekly-Daily. Often there are individual stocks that do, and those are the ones that pull the market to higher levels.
Markets can continue to roll higher if, when the initial leadership breaks down (ie, the Daily RSI-7 falls below 70, indicating a good time to exercise the judgment to sell that stock), there is continuous new leadership.
For example, in the Dow 30, companies like Boeing (BA), JP Morgan (JPM) and ExxonMobil (XOM) were leaders and General Electric (GE) and Wal-Mart (WMT) laggards, for a while. If I see the old leadership being replaced by GE and WMT, for example, then I must believe that the broad market is going higher.
A rising market needs an engine to power it. It's up to you to find it, and consider the merits and the potential for continuance.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
April 26, 2007 10:05 AM [link]
One question about analyst research. Bill mentioned today that news and numbers is just noise, and we need to focus on share prices and analyst guidance. But most of the guidance quoted recently, and in my opinion almost always, is too late to be any use: i.e. downgrades after earnings misses, upgrades after 20% gains.
So is our focus on analyst guidance more of a counter-indicator? I.e. positive guidance is the final pump job to allow HBB to take their gains? And likewise, negative guidance is used to drive down prices for HBB to pick up stocks on the cheap?
Thanks...
Posted by: proudPapa at
April 26, 2007 10:13 AM [link]
Initial spike by PAL out of the blocks, up 6.5% as of this writing. Saw no news . . . price of palladium down like other PMs.
Market speculator was looking at AMZN for a short setup this a.m., but right now looks like shorts capitulating.
Posted by: Seamus at
April 26, 2007 10:18 AM [link]
Citi downgraded AAPL and HSBC Securities did the same for CHRW. Somebody's reading my blog. (LOL)
Pru Securities upgraded MMM and Wm Blair Securities did the same for CHRW.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
April 26, 2007 10:20 AM [link]
The $USD looks to have topped this morning, but PM is still getting hammered. I think there will be a good trading opportunity to go long soon the PM, but there has to be an end to the selling wave first.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
April 26, 2007 10:25 AM [link]
proudPapa -
I agree that most analysts are usually a noisy bunch, either cheerleading or surprised and scampering for cover (see yesterday's AMZN debacle with price target changed more than $20 by a few). I personally like to find the "lead' analyst (based on Starmine or other ranking - not necessarily from a large HB&B) and follow his/her rationale rather than recommendation to make up my mind. In general, I found their inputs useful for retail & some tech and financial. Less so for industrials. I am still working for other sectors.
jasper -
If you are looking to hold long/short positions for long-term but fear counter-reactions due to earnings, why not buy some hedge protection via short-term options (nearest out-of-the money ) if insurance price is OK? Else, just unwind and play a speculative move (deep out-of-the money). For core positions and expensive insurance, covered long/short are good bets IMO.
JML
Posted by: Jumble at
April 26, 2007 10:27 AM [link]
My big worry:
the speculation between YEN and NewZealand dollar (that is carry trade, inflated stock exhanges, etc.) is changing! It seems to me that something is going to reverse. Look at the graph comparing the NZD/YEN with SP500. Is it going to come down?
But now I'm very worried about my positions in gold. Still long, for now.
3 months
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NZDJPY=X&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC
12 months
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NZDJPY=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC
Posted by: Lelik at
April 26, 2007 10:27 AM [link]
Hmmm, woke up in a field of poppies next to the lead brick road with a hangover this AM.
Not feeling particularly nimble today....no brain, no heart, no courage. I hope the wizard or at least Glenda show up as my ruby slippers are in the shop.
Posted by: Craig at
April 26, 2007 10:36 AM [link]
Indexes rising/holding with volatility today - don't call the top yet folks.
QID has been down 10 days straight, largest #down days since inception. Even if you don't trade the double inverse ETFs, they bear watching (no pun intended, really!) as they often de-couple from the underlying indexes at turning points. Generally, QID trends with $VXN, SDS with $VIX, but NOT TODAY (yet).
Can you say "Juggernaut" ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juggernaut
t4k
Posted by: trade4keeps at
April 26, 2007 10:46 AM [link]
Pal and SWC noted in the Gartman letter today.
Posted by: Tarheel at
April 26, 2007 10:47 AM [link]
Harman International Industries (HAR) agreed to be acquired by affiliates of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Goldman Sachs for $8 billion.
Posted by: SiO2 at
April 26, 2007 10:52 AM [link]
Jumble,
You have much more finesse in your bag of tools. For now, too much mystique and anxiety about options. Maybe Bill's book will help mentor me. My inner voice, says keep it simple, there's already simple strategies that reliably work as long as they are executed with discpline. To have Bill narrow down the universe to 100 across all sectors and with the prospect of getting other slices that include size and global is more than half the battle.
2ndave,
I was tempted to buy slv, as I closed that position two mnths ago. But, for now, must respect the dollar. Hoping Bill will give us hints of the dollar topping with lower probability of it continuing onward in the next couple of weeks before stepping in. I'm still wary. The dollar was weaker in last two days and gold was still going down.
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 11:03 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
I have been reading a number of posts, some here, that their "retirement accounts" took a big hit! One guy said his account went down $25k over the past two days!
I quit contributing to my IRA way back in 2001 ... If I didn't I would not have been able to pay off my debt as fast. It just hit me one day that why do I even waste my time having a retirement account when I have a mortgage? Essentially any profits I make are just sitting in the account waiting to be stolen when I am 65. What guarantees does the governemnt offer me that I will be paying less taxes when I retire? The costs to retire are going up not down! Will long term capital gains still be 15% in 5 years ... in 10 years ... in 20 years? If history is any indication taxes go up not down! Then there is the "hidden tax" ... inflation!
My number one priority when I took profits was to pay off debt! To have any chance of a "care-free" retirement you must be debt free! Just ask any senior now retired on a fixed income who still makes mortgage payments! If you don't own your home what security do you really have?
If you have a mortgage I would think twice about putting $4k into an IRA. Paying down your mortgage is a much better "retirement plan" than a IRA or 401k. Also just think if you have an emergency and need that IRA money look what the government charges you to withdraw it early ... 50%!!! I thought the Mafia only charges those rates! Isn't "deferring taxes" like "deferring debt"? I have found that any time you "defer" anything you lose!
Of course HB&B and the US government don't want you to pay off your debt. Those fat "nest eggs" will be big fat tax targets!
If you own debt then "nest eggs" are for the birds!
Posted by: kaimu at
April 26, 2007 11:38 AM [link]
SLW does not look like a bargin here with at RSI 7 @ 52 on a downslope. I bought 1K of HLIT at 8.50 today for a trade. stk
Posted by: stktrader at
April 26, 2007 11:48 AM [link]
Kaimu,
Agree that debt should be totally eliminated, why trouble with investing and possibly losing value when you can make $$$ up front by saving high interest rates?
My house is paid for and I'm debt free.
I depart company however when discussing ROTH IRAs which are after tax $$$ and tax free withdrawls of profits after 59 1/2 years old. Principal can be withdrawn at any time as it's after tax $$$. I'm 52 and use my ROTH to invest and occassionally trade and all profits are tax free. I'm over 50 so I can deposit $5000 this year earned income. Granted the powers that be can rescind law, but that might be somewhat politically suicidal.
Agree completely on standard IRAs unless you are making more money than you know what to do with.
That applies to so few, no?
Back to the PM carnage....um, sale....
Posted by: Craig at
April 26, 2007 11:52 AM [link]
With gold falling so hard, why would Goldman close it's short positions in Japan? Could this be just a squeeze to shake weak hands?
Posted by: SiO2 at
April 26, 2007 11:55 AM [link]
A few thoughts:
-$USD was due for a bounce, oversold by daily/weekly/monthly RSIs
-Similarly, major indices are due for a breather, with extreme RSIs as noted by others above. Could they snap back at some point soon, and will they take the PM stocks with them?
-$GOLD ran into expected resistance around $690 recently and looks to be consolidating, which is healthy IMO. $GOLD has broken a short-term uptrend line from the March lows. 50 day MA is right around current price at $670; if price breaks below, we could be in for some further weakness in the short-term, exemplified by the PM stocks IF the broader indices pull back as well
-Pigs may fly first, before the broader US indices snap back--Bill, let us know if you see any pigs soaring across Lake Ontario. In fact, try to get a picture and post it. :)
-Some of the miners are reading < 30 on the daily RSI (Golcorp, Agnico Eagle to name two that I'm watching). XGD.TO is also < 30. I have an underwater long position in G.TO, considering adding to it.
-At some point, these double inverse US index ETFs are going to be screaming buys, rather than just screaming by previous lows.
-'some point' is rather difficult to determine
-where's g034 and MarkM when you need them? :)
Posted by: doug11 at
April 26, 2007 12:05 PM [link]
Kaimu,
I know this thread is mostly for day traders, but just have to comment on your retirement accounts ideas...
Roth IRA, Roth 401K, MSA (medical savings accounts), ESA (educational savings) are all for after-tax savings with no tax on gains or principal coming out. I believe that these are great instruments that should be researched and used to the fullest.
Regarding mortgages: A mortgage usually makes sense if it's at/under 6% APR assuming you deduct interest and you can earn better than about 4% on the invested cash you keep as a result. (i.e. investing instead of paying more than required on mortgage) If you are reading Bill's blog (and I know you have been for a while) then you are probably doing much better than 4% on investments :~)
I think everyone agrees that borrowing at high interest rates to use for trading is probably a bad idea.
Best Regards,
Todd
Posted by: ToddL at
April 26, 2007 12:09 PM [link]
Treasuries are higher this AM, USD got a bit of a bounce. No worries.
Twiggs chart and commentary warns of gold reversal at 630. Otherwise consolidation is bullish.
Posted by: Craig at
April 26, 2007 12:23 PM [link]
thanks for the advice, bill. should clarify that of my trades are all very short-term at this point...could be out in minutes.
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
April 26, 2007 12:28 PM [link]
Seamus,
the palladium/plat ETF operating. SWC & PAL up on expectations of increased metal demand ala SLV & GLD?
Posted by: QQQBall at
April 26, 2007 12:31 PM [link]
SLV
129 area is first area of support...where it should have been going in the last drop but recovered in ONE day.....where oh where has the support gone and will it hold at its 150dma which has worked last 6 months?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GPX
Looks like 7% to go from yesterday's close to get support.
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 12:33 PM [link]
qqqball
...is this new etf available here or just london?
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 12:37 PM [link]
China, surpassing U.S., is now the number 1 trading partner of Japan.
BOJ meets tomorrow. Don’t think BOJ will increase. IMO, as long as China keeps its currency down, Japan will try to keep their currency down also in order to maintain their trading relationship. BOJ continues to bear (no pun) watching.
Tomorrow’s GDP could reverse today’s PMs sell off and weaker USD. Of course, that’s if the 1st quarter GDP shows a slowdown as I anticipate.
QQQBall-thanks for the reminder, I didn’t calendar that ETF start date.
Tarheel-thanks for the info.
Posted by: Seamus at
April 26, 2007 12:52 PM [link]
Kaimu -
As Todd suggests, ROTH will be one of few recent politicos who's a hero when my kids' taxes spike during the "coming generational storm".
I consider it unlikely a future Congress would dare remove the one tax-advantaged savings plan that will still work for Gen X ...
BTW, my son is feeding his ROTH, living in (cramped) rented quarters, and waiting to buy after California real estate crashes.
Posted by: Jock at
April 26, 2007 12:56 PM [link]
Bill touched briefly on "Liar Loans" today. I notice others have recently commented on the state of the housing market and Kaimu touched on retirement. After my visit this week to the Sunshine state to sign off on my rercent "deep fire sale deals" I can only say my head is spinning with what I saw and experienced in the horrid real estate market. Anything you have heard or imagined is true.
How some people got loans is beyond my comprehension, but then again greed is alive and well. Stupidity is flourishing at warp speed.
I was able to pick up some magnificent properties at unbelievable prices. It's amazing how people and bankers react when the get the sniff of cash. In one deal a boat was thrown in. My young son says he can now sail for free. I told him nothing in life is free and there are no free rides. Too bad someone did not tell the purchasers of the properties that Mortgages are not free
If any of you are so inclined to increase your asset base with real estate this is the time to act. The best properties are being gobbled up.
Good hunting.
Posted by: Horatio at
April 26, 2007 12:57 PM [link]
I hope I am not the only one who missed out on BC. It was not quite below 30 RSI-7 Monthly so I was waiting for it. Any chance that it will come back?
Posted by: TcolemanUF at
April 26, 2007 1:05 PM [link]
more re gld/slv
my tech guru reminds me that when looking at the rsi, negative divergences on pm's, and positive divergences on usd. in the short term, or longer, pain ahead. i missed the time to lighten/unload. holding as long as long term is good.
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 1:22 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Craig ... Excellent ... you own your home!!! Debt free is a good feeling isn't it? When I sent in my final mortgage payment on my Hawaii property I was so elated and felt like the weight of the world was lifted off my shoulders! Now if we can just keep paying off the property tax year after year she'll be right, eh mate?
Jock/ToddL/Craig ... You guys make assumptions that everything will be the same status quo in the future. You guys trust the US government far more than I do! The government has shown me absolutely no good faith in the past and I judge future actions by past actions! You know it wasn't too long ago that people were saying it would be political suicide to tax Social Security payments and look what they did! The US government will only get more desperate for tax revenues in the future! Good luck on your gamble!
To me future "tax savings" cannot be relied upon. Because a lot of people here hold gold related investments we are betting on a US Dollar crisis. When(not if)a US Dollar crisis happens you can bet a lot of you will be crying the blues because everything you need to survive on a daily basis will cost an arm and a leg! If the USA did not import anything, like back in 1929, I would be a lot less worried! Under such financial conditions where prices rise dramatically then it follows that government will require more revenues so income taxes will rise, estate taxes, excise taxes, sales taxes and property taxes will all rise. Also insurance premiums for medical, dental, home and cars will rise dramatically. What good is even a 4% loan rate if you cannot pay your mortgage. I for one would not want to depend on profits from Bills blog to make my house payment! Don't gamble by playing future 6-10% profit spreads! My strategy was to take at least half my profits and pay down my mortgage, then reinvest. My advice is to pay down your debt while you can. Don't reinvest 100% of profits into the market or into "deferred" or "non-deferred" tax instruments insteaad get out of debt. It always amazes me as to the level of resistance I get from people when I suggest paying off debt as a priority. I know paying debt is not as "sexy" as making a 10% gain in one day on KRY, but someday "debt" will be a dirty word in the USA, mark my words! Casinos in Vegas bank on the fact that you will keep gambling your winnings until you are broke! What do you think Wall Street expects? Long term inflation-adjusted charts on the DOW shows you are losing not winning! Us Americans are addicted to gambling!! Thats how fiat money works. It forces you to seek huge risks to keep your head above water! Sooner or later risk catches up to you.
Oh ... and who says this blog is mostly for "day traders"? I don't recall seeing that stipulation any where. I did see something about "Capital Markets And Social Equity" though ...
SOCIAL SECURITY RANT
It irks me to no end when I think of how many $100k's I have dumped into "Social Security" and "Medicare"! If I didn't have to pay payroll taxes I could have paid off three or four houses by now! Ever get those stupid "Social Security Contribution Reports" that shows you your "contribution" info? My report shows my "contribution" will net me $1750 per month upon retirement at age 70, so if I do the math I would have to live another 22 years(92 years old) to break even, if the government did not tax any of my benefits! I bank on the fact that benefits will not be paid by time I retire! I can hear the workers at Social Security Dept. yelling out "SUCKER"!!! They need to change the name to "Social Insecurity" because there is no financial security any more in the USA! Fiat money has ruined any notion of security!
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...
Posted by: kaimu at
April 26, 2007 1:24 PM [link]
Kaimu,
No worries, I don't trust them any farther than I could throw them.....but it's after tax $$ so what can they do? If they tax me for the resulting income it will be no worse than an investment account. And they better hurry, they only have a few years to screw me over.
Posted by: Craig at
April 26, 2007 1:35 PM [link]
FWIW, today it’s reported Sprott Asset Management filed a SC 13G (filed to report acquisition of beneficial ownership of 5% or more) for QEE. YGC is pending acquisition proposal of QEE with intentions to rename combined company as Yukon-Nevada Gold. As I recall, QEE shareholders will receive one share of the Yukon-Nevada Gold for every 10 shares QEE.
Disclosure: I have a small speculative position that’s under water. Not a recommendation.
Wonder what Sprott spoke about at the luncheon Bill attended? My guess--uranium, among other things.
Posted by: Seamus at
April 26, 2007 1:43 PM [link]
BTW, it feels GREAT to have a paid for house.
Everyone needs to feel this free.
It also free's up cash flow for other things like gold, silver, good looking small caps....decent wines.
AND, I got a $211 credit for putting $5000 into my ROTH. So it really cost me about $4789.
About 4% before I invested a dime.
Posted by: Craig at
April 26, 2007 1:45 PM [link]
"Casinos in Vegas bank on the fact that you will keep gambling your winnings until you are broke! What do you think Wall Street expects?"
well said.
Posted by: Eric at
April 26, 2007 1:51 PM [link]
With all the exclamation points I have seen in recent advertising, uranium is so last quarter, and !!!Molybdenum!!! is what everyone is promoting.
Sprott & others are selling this one hard.
http://www.stockinterview.com/News/01212007/Molybdenum-Review.html
In order not to bother Bill again I wonder what each of the regulars feels are the technical indicators signaling the end of the selling wave?
"I think there will be a good trading opportunity to go long soon the PM, but there has to be an end to the selling wave first." - Bill Cara at April 26, 2007 10:25 AM
Thanks as always. I'd love to hear how all of you interpret this.
Posted by: rusticuf at
April 26, 2007 1:58 PM [link]
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, though, has stirred things up a bit. Fisher recently saying he sees more economic impact coming from the housing market, in that the subprime effects have not yet been fully felt.
---
Finally the lairs are getting a bit scared in not telling the truth to J6P.
Posted by: marginnayan at
April 26, 2007 2:06 PM [link]
Call me crazy but, I just dont understand the collective investment theme here.
Its just gold, silver, and a crash to 10,000
THATS 3,000 points away!
Wasnt the crash to 8900 what you all were debating this summer?
I wonder with so many people agreeing always if this forum isn't too One sided.
There are NO bulls calling for Dow 14k
And no Dollar Bulls
Of course, then..its a comfy place to come and reinforce "your" investment themes.
Just my 2 critical cents
;-)
Posted by: stockershock at
April 26, 2007 2:19 PM [link]
'Father' of Securitized Mortgage Market: First Time in History Median Home Price is Likely to Decline
Lewis Ranieri, generally regarded as the "father" of the securitized mortgage market, told an audience at the Milken Institute Global Conference that for the first time in history the median home price in the United States is likely to decline in 2007.
He also added that there will be many technical problems in working out problem mortgages, He said the vast majority of problem loans are securitized and that in the past problem loans were in individual portfolios. This time around, because of securitization, they are many, many holders of the securities with an interest in a mortgage. This will mean there will be many more parties that will have to agree to everything. In addition, he added, there are more lawyers and accountants in the picture to complicate matters.
He used as an example that in the past, when he restructured mortgages with homeowners, he would never send out a 1099 tax form. In current situations, he said, lawyers and accountants want him to send out 1099 tax forms to homeowners who have restructured their mortgages. He asked rhetorically, "You have just restructured a mortgage for people who haven't been able to make their former payments and now you want to send them a tax bill for restructuring?"
He further stated there will be a "political reaction" and he feared that bad legislation could create problems for the entire mortgage sector that are now just limited to the sub-prime area. He fears, for example, that any legislation creating a moratorium on foreclosures would have a chilling effect on the issuance of home mortgages throughout the industry.
http://www.economicpolicymonitor.com/2007/04/ranieri-first-time-in-history-median.html
---
He forgot to add that this is just the beginning.
Posted by: marginnayan at
April 26, 2007 2:25 PM [link]
Good afternoon, Bill.
Interesting day in the PM fields. SLW AND HL seem to be holding up since the initial downdraft, but i'm gonna wait to see if gold is pushed lower in the access market.
Nice breakout in PAL.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
April 26, 2007 2:27 PM [link]
stockerhshock,
"this is not a blog, it's a cult"
to paraphrase another
i paritally share your sentiment. bill is more multi faceted than you may see. bill has pointed me and others in directions that have made good money and brought a sense of understanding to the process which creates security and better sleeping, then again if i was too selective about what i read, i would risk missed opportunity. bottom line, blogs should not worship and turn into group think. however, the last thing i would want to do is discount the independent thinkers that do share here. i'mclinging tho the fence here. time to swim and air out my brain.
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 2:41 PM [link]
OK, just going against the grain here,
After all, the Dow is breaking out to new highs
NEM is near its lows,
Posted by: stockershock at
April 26, 2007 3:12 PM [link]
stockershock - provide a reason other than "Mo" to get to 14,000...give us something that will make the Dollar rebound...
"Mo" isn't an investment, it's a trade. Right now it works, but do you really believe it will work forever without solid fundamentals to support it?
Bill says trade prices and he lists specific stocks that are good to trade around based on his extensive experience. This is somewhat separate from the big picture of what's going on in the world economy and the US economy. You can be bullish on select stocks, but bearish on the whole economy, ya know? That's the sense I get from most here. Some will be paralyzed by fear and do nothing but watch in disbelief, waiting for what they think should happen.
It took almost seven years to reach the old marks on some major indexes (Dow, SP 500). It's taken record debt and speculation to do it. Give us a reason to be bullish, please. Most of us are just trying to be realistic and avoid getting run over.
Also, read some of Bill's recent posts about his "crystal ball". He (nor many of us, I suspect) is not a gold/silver bug. He's an opportunist. And we tend to like the opportunities we see from him...Thanks Bill.
Posted by: rob d at
April 26, 2007 3:14 PM [link]
Horatio -
I'd be very interested to know your involvement with Cuba. I love their music, and hope to get there before McDonalds does.
I loved the music from Buena Vista Social Club. How fine that those folks got to see their music appreciated again ....
Posted by: Jock at
April 26, 2007 3:17 PM [link]
stockershock,
another thought, as I crawl into target range,
I think the cara 100 is a great opportunity that usually gets mention after a company price spikes rather than sooner, though i'm still a newbie here. MU a notable exception. I'm open to learning new behaviors, such as waiting for the market to come to you, but there is opportunity out there even if one did not accumulate when buried in the AZ. As a group, a few weeks ago, according to my spread sheet, ytd the stocks as a group were underperforming my benchmark/russell 3000 and probably undervalued, and a few are now really shining. On the horizon are more cara selections...and gold is not the single focus.....even if i have gold on the brain...I bought a bunch and now comes how to manage the risk part.
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 3:18 PM [link]
Interesting article about Structural shift in gold, money markets
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/kosares042507.html
NEM coming back strong here. (14000 May calls on a down day)
Long NEM, KGC, KRY,GRZ,WGDF, IAG
Posted by: JogyP at
April 26, 2007 3:25 PM [link]
>
Seamus....looks like AMZN just got a second wind! It's at 61.15 and climbing as I type.
FWIW, a commentator on the minyanville site says a $680 close on friday will be the tell for gold's short term direction.
Crazy move on AMZN. i like the store, but hate the stock. What carnage for the multitude of shorts. Someone tell Bezos it's not 1999.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
April 26, 2007 3:43 PM [link]
DENVER, Apr 26, 2007 (AP Worldstream via COMTEX) -- Newmont Mining Corp., one of the world's largest gold producers, said Thursday its first-quarter profit fell 67 percent despite higher prices, in part because of increased startup costs at a Nevada mine.
Wayne Murdy, chairman and chief executive officer, also cited waste removal costs and adverse exchange rates related to Newmont's operations in Australia.
Goldman Sachs analyst Oscar Cabrera said the results were disappointing, noting that costs at Nevada and Australia operations were higher than anticipated.
"We believe 1Q 2007 casts a dark shadow on the remainder of 2007 given continued strength in Australia's commodity-based economy and unresolved power issues in Ghana," he wrote in a research note. "However, the company's guidance remained unchanged and capital development projects reported progress."
For the quarter ended March 31, Newmont reported net income of $68 million (EUR 50 million), or 15 cents a share, compared with net income of $209 million (EUR 153.72 million), or 47 cents a share, in the first quarter of 2006.
The most recent results included an after-tax gain of $17 million (EUR 12.5 million) related to the exchange of securities. The 2006 quarter included an after-tax gain of $50 million (EUR 36.78 million) stemming from revised tax estimates and discontinued operations.
Revenue rose to $1.26 billion (EUR 0.93 billion) from $1.13 billion (EUR 0.83 billion) in the previous quarter.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had forecast 24 cents a share in earnings.
In the quarter, Newmont reported 1.3 million in equity gold sales at an average realized gold price of $653 (EUR 480.29) an ounce. That compared with 1.4 million in equity gold sales at an average realized price of $556 (EUR 408.94) an ounce in the 2006 first quarter.
Costs applicable to sales rose to $421 (EUR 309.65) per ounce in the most recent quarter compared with $275 (EUR 202.27) per ounce in the first quarter of 2006.
Capital expenses in the first quarter totaled $362 million (EUR 266.25 million), which included construction of a Nevada power plant, a gold mill and other improvements at a northern Peruvian mine and steps to address power shortages in Ghana.
Equity gold sales in Nevada rose 15 percent in a year-over-year comparison as commercial production began at the Phoenix and Leeville mines in October. Costs applicable to those sales rose 25 percent to $493 (EUR 362.61) an ounce from $395 (EUR 290.53) an ounce in the 2006 first quarter.
Production obstacles attributed to the Phoenix operation included lower-than-expected ore grade, restrictions in tailings lines and less mill availability.
"Ongoing challenges at Phoenix could result in costs applicable to sales per ounce above the expected range for the year," the company said.
For the year, Newmont maintained its guidance of sales of between 5.2 million and 5.6 million equity gold ounces. Costs applicable to sales were forecast between $375 (EUR 275.82) an ounce and $400 (EUR 294.20) an ounce if improvements can be made in Phoenix operations, the company said.
Posted by: Telestar3d at
April 26, 2007 3:44 PM [link]
My cara 100 spread sheet, not including yesterday's surge, has 14 of 100 over 20%ytd. Ought to be a way to tap that group without being paralyzed that the market is going to collapse. Bill has done the fundamental work, and that gives us a lot to sink our TA teeth into. On the other hand, I also want to try Bill's AZ and DZ approach where there may be less anxiety induced.
Posted by: jasper at
April 26, 2007 3:58 PM [link]
WFR just got pummeled after hours on their earnings, down 11 percent. i like the story, both the solar and semi angle. good entry point, perhaps.
Posted by: mogwai8myball at
April 26, 2007 4:26 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Just as a point of reference money is suppose to be a "store of value".
In the 1950s the avearge price for a home was $10,000USD. Back then 330 ounces of gold could purchase a house. Today that same 330 gold ounces is worth $224,400($680USD x 330), which can still buy a house. What can $10,000 buy you now? Certainly not a house! My father-in-law informed me his two hearing aids he bought a couple months ago, cost him $7,500USD. Given that past performance of the US Dollar's purchasing power what exactly can you expect to buy for $224,400USD in five years ... ten years ... fifty years? Don't confuse the USDX with what a dollar buys. The Forex is nothing more than a fiat competition to see whose currency can devalue the fastest! So far we are winning!
I don't know ... in the 1950s being a gold bug would have really paid off! If you want to preserve purchasing power then you would not want to hold onto a "fiat" US Dollar very long. If you want to pass on something of "value" for your future generations then gold is your best bet not paper.
Posted by: kaimu at
April 26, 2007 5:20 PM [link]
JogyP:
Thanks for the link to the gold-eagle article.
I think it's time to revisit that discussion from several weeks ago on how/where to buy physical bullion.
Apart from shares in several senior mining companies (sr, intermediate and jr), all I own - if it counts - is some CEF.
Horatio, Kaimu - again, please - what sources do you recommend? I live in Ontario.
Many thanks in advance for suggestions offered.
joey
Posted by: joey at
April 26, 2007 5:39 PM [link]
Joey. I purchase and store my gold bullion with the Bank of Nova Scotia. They are by far the best in the business.
http://www.scotiabank.com/cda/content/0,1608,CID8140_LIDen,00.html#Why_bar_charge?
Posted by: Horatio at
April 26, 2007 5:53 PM [link]
Jock. I travel to Cuba several time a year. Like Hemmingway I have fallen in love with the people and their culture. I believe opportunities are there for the future but probably not in my time. My primary focus at the moment is through the family charitable trust whereby funds are provide for various medical supplies and educational tools.
Cuba has unbelievable beach resorts which are being built around the island. Canada is the largest foreign investor in Cuba, followed by the Spanish, British and Germans.
Posted by: Horatio at
April 26, 2007 6:06 PM [link]
Ouch! SNDK down 4% afterhours
---
SanDisk, which makes flash memory chips used in digital cameras and cell phones, said higher costs and sharp price declines offset higher sales, and pressured margins.
Looking ahead, SanDisk also expects depressed prices to continue through the second quarter and possibly extend through the summer months. SanDisk warned this may weigh on margins.
---
I debated getting out all day, but stayed hoping for a repeat of AAPL and AMZN.
Waiting to see what Analyst at "Citi" might say.
Posted by: JogyP at
April 26, 2007 6:25 PM [link]
On Thursday's, Martin Goldberg does the market commentary on FSO. I'm not capable enough to assess his skills, but I do know that I find his writing insightful and accessible. You can find it here: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
One thing he notes about AMZN:
"Finally with regard to Amazon, it would not surprise me if it is found that a hedge fund “blows up” from being on the wrong side of the trade as we have seen a two day short squeeze of epic proportions. What you are seeing below has nothing to do with books! It has everything to do with panic buying."
Now see Bill there you go again taking on debt and to add insult to injury you take a hit on the late fee :)
I walked into the credit union last month to payoff my car loan in-full; they wouldnt take 10K in cash I had to go back to my bank and buy a cashiers check (no fee evidently they dont want to loose my biz. at BAC).
Well-written synopsis of the ponzi scheme here:
Posted by: Rick45 at
April 26, 2007 7:29 PM [link]
anyone catch the BC pop today? still think HW is atleast a solid trade here Bill noting short interest is 4X BC and similar valuation they report Tuesday (sure has JP Morgan's attention initiated a "neutral" yesterday). Sell near $ 26
Posted by: Rick45 at
April 26, 2007 7:33 PM [link]
Leisa was thinking the same thing about HW, with 13+ days to cover over 20% of the float short. Dont you just hate it when the hedgies get kicked in the teeth AGAIN?
Posted by: Rick45 at
April 26, 2007 7:35 PM [link]
Horatio -
That's really great, to be working like that in Cuba. I wish the US were able to take a more constructive approach towards the island.
Posted by: Jock at
April 26, 2007 7:52 PM [link]
Horatio, thank you.
BNS it will be, then...very easy for me to deal with...and the spirit of Al Arnold would probably approve...
Do you buy physical gold, as opposed to certificates?
The website FAQ says sales tax is payable in some provinces...if exigible in Ontario from an Ontario resident purchaser, I think I would decline the 'extraction'.
joey
Posted by: joey at
April 26, 2007 8:29 PM [link]
Horatio, stupid question from me...you store your bullion...no certificates for you...
Posted by: joey at
April 26, 2007 8:46 PM [link]
Jock/ Horatio
I spent a few months in Cuba back in 2002. Amazing people. The most delightful music and food. The island is about 8 ft deep of rich loam from thousands of years of compost-like natural revegitation (take note Kaimu). Undisturbed and unpoisoned (couldn't afford the stuff).
The produce you buy in the mercado and pay nothing for (in pesos) reminds you of what a tomato used to taste like.
And, of course, there is the taste of a mohito or cuba libra made with Havana Club and enjoyed in Hemingway,s old pub(s) in that narrow street.
A culture and people frozen in a 30 year time warp. Musicians, artists, dancers all clasically trained in Moscow, unable to speak a word of English but brilliant in their skills.
I wanted to buy a casa, but decided to wait.
Too many Germans and Italians playing the game and no guarantees we gringos won't be screwed by our own government.
God bless those lovely people.
I would live out my life in such a place.. if that were possible.
Posted by: Rigdon at
April 26, 2007 8:51 PM [link]
PS
I am still looking for the right "retirement" home outside of our borders, as I am sure others are.
I have spent some time and effort looking (and travelling through) Nicaragua. With reservations I think this may be an opportunity. But we need to see if Ortega has mellowed. The fact that he won this election has (once again) supressed local real estate values, a good thing, opportunity rarely strikes twice.
Of course the easy idea is to follow Bill to the Bahamas, which is my significant other's first choice. Somehow she has more faith in Bill, go figure.
Que bruto mondo, no?
Posted by: Rigdon at
April 26, 2007 9:06 PM [link]
Rigdon - you probably already know about this site, but just in case...
http://www.internationalliving.com/
Posted by: rob d at
April 26, 2007 9:38 PM [link]
joey/Horitao,
I purchase the gold Maple leaf 50.00 coin from Kitco, it's 1 oz of 99.9 gold unlike the US Eagle at 90%.Its very mobile and tangible. In Canada there is no GST or HST on currency.
Brian
Posted by: skylane at
April 26, 2007 9:49 PM [link]
So much for the short term PGM ETF Hype..I like the concept tough.
Rigdon,
I have long admired the ingenuity and resourcefulness of the ex-pat Cubans resident to S. Florida and wonder about the high post-Castro potential of the island. My feeling is that a new social democratic ideology will emerge there which will lie somewhere between Bush and Castro. Despite their lacking the questionable benefits of our modern medical industry ( technology, drugs etc.) Cuba's practice of medicine is held in high regard throughout the world. Perhaps a good place for our boomer generation to spend some of their twilight years, especially when they experience the increasingly poor level of medical service delivery expected in the USA and other affluent countries in the coming years.
Posted by: TerryC at
April 26, 2007 10:49 PM [link]
To all,
American Eagle bullion coins are 99.99 pure gold exactly like the Maple leaf and are marked as such exactly like the Maple Leaf.
It's the currency coins that are alloyed with copper to harden them as currency.
YOU are going to buy bullion coins, not currency.
Posted by: Craig at
April 27, 2007 1:21 AM [link]
Financial Times yesterday contrasted 2 Platimum ETF's (increasing demand) with large palladium sales by Norilsk Nickel (increasing supply).
Any sense in a spread: long platinum, short palladium?
Posted by: Jock at
April 27, 2007 12:50 PM [link]
A too-dignified name and take on HB&B? --
FT columnist Gillian Tett comments today on the Bank of England's "Financial Stability Report" which covers the "Large Complex Financial Institutions! - or LCFI's ...
Why have "LFCIC" assets burgeoned from $10T to $23T under the "slim" new business model of "originate & distribute"? She and the bank posit two answers:
1. lots more prop trading in lots of new complex instruments (more toys for the boys)
2. "warehousing" during distribution. (But, what if derivative still in inventory suddenly become unsaleable?)
The Bank, everso discreetly, opines: "The incentive structures faced by managers may be contributing to a heightened emphasis on scale, revenue growth, and market share"...
Posted by: Jock at
April 27, 2007 5:01 PM [link]
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