hello from germany,

Housing Bubble Accomplices Preparing for Death: Caroline Baum

uk reits / end of gold rush

Canada / housing trend has started to chill

colbert on the housing bust :-)

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

by the way china is up almost 30% since the 10% one day drop........

Explosion reported at Iraqi parliament: BBC

An explosion has reportedly occurred in a cafeteria at the Iraqi parliament, the BBC reported on its website Thursday. The BBC, citing Iraqi state television, said that there are reportedly many casualties from the blast. The light sweet crude oil contract gained 59 cents at $65.43 a barrel in electronic trading

http://www.cbs47.tv/news/national/story.aspx?content_id=e2b455be-7414-4300-9064-3c463cd2c25f

I got out of LEND yesterday (hit a stop), so now is the time to buy since it will go up after I sold, as is always the case. A friend told me about a stock he bought a couple of years ago when it tanked - he tried to buy more but it got delisted during the order & they wouldn't allow him to sell!

Daily/Weekly/Monthly RSI on LEND is 30.

http://www.billcara2.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=LEND&px=3&wt=30&ind=rsi

Dell is building a (delayed) factory in Poland. 1M SQ FT. Something tells me those plans will get translated to 1 meter of square feet...

http://www.gowarsaw.eu/en/news/dell-helping-to-develop-lodz-city

Is Poland considered a tax haven, which is sending all those companies there?

http://www.paiz.gov.pl/index/?id=22c5a901070d1c2ad33e821d071ae97e

Long DELL.

I'd be wary of LEND--is it Doug Kass that said where there is one cockroach there are many?

LEND bought Aames Capital (heavily into this mtg market)--AC's 4th qtr numbers are not anywhere yet. So it is not as if LEND has just their issues to deal with, they have those of Aames Capital.

Thanks for this excellent post Bill, I am slowly educating myself on commodities, currently my focus is primarily equities, including oil companies. But one thing to remember also is that if a global economic slump/slow-down comes along, commodities will also be impacted from lower demand. but of course, one could always be on the short side :). For now, the bull in most commodities will continue for a while... China Olympics and construction etc. -- all perception like you said.

Looks like NYC property may drop.

NY Post article about the massive amount of subprime loans in areas in/around NYC.

http://tinyurl.com/34a4la

This is interesting, you might have seen it already. What bothers me is that most people were aware of this stuff going on for 4-5 years and no one did anything until it started unraveling with subprime mortgages. I think there is worse to come:

Housing Boom Tied To Sham Mortgages (Washington Post): http://tinyurl.com/2djdqb

An ad that debuted this week on KCBS radio is pushing a "value-based loan, a loan based on the value of your property, and not your credit score." Its audience ("are you facing foreclosure, in the midst of construction and running out of money?") would appear to be in desperate straits. Is there anyone in the financial sector who can explain the rationale behind this package...it would seem to me that a loan is a loan is loan...are they simply saying they will still loan money, but not as much? "Value-based" just sounds like another way of saying the value of your home has gone down.

onlineaces,

You ain't seen nothing yet. On my journey to buying rental properties outside of metro nyc, i learned that it was illegal for companies out of the state to solicite new home buyers or even send literature in NY and NJ. I pressed a little harder demanding answers as to why from both state officials. the official response i got was "we dont want you to have junk mail in your mailbox" Junk mail? letters letting me know that i can have a 2800 sq ft home for $195,000 with better schools, no tolls, no parking ticket troopers on every block? Ability to have a great quality of life and have left over to save and pay off bad debt? that is gold in my mail box. people in my area are slowly waking up and starting to ask themselves "why am i doing this?" And they are slowly researching their move out. if you ever watched the movie Matrix, NYC is the heart of the grid. Do you want the Red or the Green pill?

Sorry about the grammar...meant to say a loan is a loan is a loan. Or maybe at this point they're alone and will accept any terms.

Earth to Bloomberg: the Gold Fields bid story is a hoax

http://forum.themarkettraders.com/read-m/26/6436/6436#msg-6436

Bill,

US slowdown will take ChinIndia down with it, no matter what the analysts think. It's a 24/7 global economy and just domestic conumption of ChinIndia is not going to help. Investment Gurus talk about 2+ Billion people purchasing power of ChinIndia where in reality 40%+ of the population still live below poverty line.

So a bet on commodities/energy is not a slam dunk.

MGIC Mortgage Insurer took a big hit this quarter. Shows even further deterioration in the overall property market and is now down 5% in pre-market.

MGIC 1Q Earnings Fall
Thursday April 12, 7:57 am ET
MGIC Profit Declines in 1st-Quarter, Hurt by Weak Net Premiums and Higher Losses

MILWAUKEE (AP) -- Mortgage insurance provider MGIC Investment Corp. on Thursday said fiscal first-quarter earnings dropped 44 percent, hurt by a sagging housing market and nearly flat net premiums and higher losses.
Profit for the quarter ended March 31 totaled $92.4 million, or $1.12 per share, compared with $163.5 million, or $1.87 per share, during the same period a year ago.

Revenue was nearly flat at $369.6 million, versus $369 million in the prior year period.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected net income of $1.71 per share on revenue of $383 million.

Net premiums edged up 1 percent to $304 million, from $300 million a year ago. Losses grew 58 percent to $181.8 million, from $114.9 million a year ago.

Great article in Globe and Mail today. Sure explains the rise in US markets last year against deteriorating fundamentals.

U.S. stock gains a 'money illusion'
DAVID PARKINSON

00:00 EDT Thursday, April 12, 2007

Is the U.S. stock market pulling a David Copperfield on us? Richard Bernstein thinks so, and he's warning us not to believe everything we see.

Mr. Bernstein, chief investment strategist at Merrill in New York, said the continued gains in U.S. equity indexes are a "money illusion" -- reflecting a depreciating currency rather than any real gains in asset values.

"The asset values remain the same, but it takes more of the currency to buy them," Mr. Bernstein said.

He argued that the bulk of the Dow Jones industrial average's 12-per-cent gains over the past year can be linked to declines in the U.S. dollar. If the performance was converted into euros, he noted, the Dow would be up only about 1 per cent in that time.

That implies that the U.S. market has much less underlying strength than the rising index would suggest, he argued.

"A rising stock market with an appreciating currency is very different from a rising market with a depreciating currency," he said. "Whereas the former combination suggests a strong economy with growth potential, the latter simply reflects money illusion."

That helps explain why U.S. markets have managed to march higher, and are once again knocking on the door of record levels, even as earnings growth momentum -- typically the key to growth in stock values -- has eroded. According to consensus estimates compiled by Thomson Financial, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow just 6.3 per cent in 2007, down from 16 per cent in 2006.

But given the outlook for the U.S. dollar, the money illusion could continue to contribute to U.S. stocks for a while yet. Goldman Sachs senior global markets economist Jens Nordvig this week recommended that clients short the greenback in favour of a basket of the euro, the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar. He said the U.S. economy is slowing and is underperforming other major economies, while increasingly protectionist U.S. trade policies could also weigh on the currency.

© The Globe and Mail

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GAM.20070412.RSMARTCHART12/GIStory/

So the hot streak (Knockoff Crystal Ball- raining here!) continues but with the negative news cycle I have to decide where I pull the trigger!

Lauriston, marginnayan,

I am not so convinced that the coming economic slump is going to affect the world nearly as much as the US. As Jim Sinclair said yesterday, if China (where much of the focus of the new world economy is on) intends to curb their growth, they will slow it to a 'modest' 6-8% from current levels. And like he said, if the US economy could experience growth at these 'modest' levels, there would be much jubilation the country over. All the factors we hear about here or anywhere else that people share the same views (i.e. rampant money supply increases, housing, carry trades, foreigners halting accumulation of reserve currencies) point to a painful near-term future for the US. And although 40%+ of the Chinese population of China (I'll take your word for it) does not enjoy the purchasing power and still is below the poverty line, that still leaves about 600M people in that country that are being enlightened and are making slow and steady gains in their incomes and will eventually say "hey, why have we been slaving over here for the last xx# of years to support a gluttonous (in terms of consumption) nation. That our government, along with many others are giving money too!"
Of course this will take time, but eventually it will be realized. My question is how will the US dig itself out of this? With a lower dollar, this will translate into an increase in export demand, but how much exports does the US have? What can they offer the world? In my geography class, we just wrapped up a section on 'entrepreneurial cities' that says that to attract growth and income, build louvres, guggenheims, etc.. in an information age society, where not only industrial, but even back-door administrative/analyst type positions are being outsourced, coupled with massive stockpiles of personal and government debt, does the world really need the US?

OK, I realize many of my questions are 'what if' and too rhetorical. And that I am not the first person to ask these questions. I'm just taking bits and pieces of information that I hear, the stuff that is broken down into layman's terms and I comprehend. But it paints a not-so-pretty picture if you ask me. In the last year I have completely reversed my views on the US and have taken a stance that the last decade and a bit is only a small blip in the big picture. Rome failed, Britain lost it's dominance, and I think the US is next in line. My grandpa in California won't hear any of it.

This is bar none the best place on the net. Salut from Toronto.

Earnings for JNJ come out 4/17... any comments on positions to take?

Here is a good article around JNJ + Buffett.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/04/11/examining-warren-buffetts-portfolio-johnson-and-johnson/

Buyers now propping the HB sector after an early sell off. I've seen this too many times before.

Dollar just tested 1.35 against the euro. Crude is up $1 but gold is down. I have found that when a decoupling like this has occurred in the past, it means that the factor which has decoupled (gold in this case) is done going up. I am bullish gold long term, but the recent factors are leading me to be cautious.

Anyone looking at AMD? Seems to be breaking out.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AMD&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=r14,m26-12-9&c=

Yesterday, I upgraded a relatively new computer to Vista. The computer manufacturer provided an upgrade DVD as promised at time of purchase. Boy did that take time—four hours plus or most of the market day. The upgrade went smooth for the most part, but you do need patience. It would drive Bill crazy, but that’s why he has a tech adviser/assistant. Bad news: The trading platform has a few time consuming, start-up glitches before it’s loaded. Good thing I have it on two other computers as backup (or primary).

Anyhow, I was going to buy some PAL yesterday as the price of palladium moved, but the time expended on the upgrade caused me to miss an opportunity. Actually it was poor planning on my part—should have done it over the weekend; but then something else would have been postponed.

NYUgrad (1)glad you enjoyed the book;
(2)seems like NY & NJ want to stop people from moving to Bucks County, PA, which has been an option for quite some time.

NYUGrad... you've hit the nail on the head. I'm 25 miles northwest of NYC. For my 5,000 sq of suburban bliss with about 2 acres I pay $25,000 a year in property taxes. I won't even tell you what the NY state employment taxes were before I retired. We spend a great deal of time down in Williamsburg, VA where I can get the same or better with a property tax hit of 'only' $8k. I am one of those folks asking, "why am I doing this" and researching a change.

This should chop for the rest of the week I think. I caught most of the downstroke but certainly didn't get the bottom. When you see that "V" form on the chart you basically know it's a snapback and shorts are going to get a little lesson.

Good luck and good trading.

2nd_ave

ive been in the subprime lending world for the last 3.5 yrs
credit score determines ltv
ex: 500 mid score has to put 20% down
600 mid score has tp put 5% down

to display the current lending mkt in subprime, my avg volume is 1/7 what it used to be.

back in the sales conference in 05, my big bank said that my subsidiary was responsible for half of the big banks income that year, at that time, the stock was around 40

well, today, and a year after losing 230 million, the companys stock is still around 40

how can they lose half their income and replace it so quickly

cooking the books?

NYU--are you doing something odd? KRY acting nutty again.

KRY: Another batch of old news being recycled in Yahoo boards.
By tomorrow they will bring it down to 3.50 to give you yet another opportunity to buy and sell over 4 on Monday.

I brought lunch, and I suspect this is a stop loss raid. either that or i have now built nerves of steel from all the previous stop loss raids and or false news. the bought deal for $53M cad with option to buy more within 30 days is who i am betting with at the table.

:)

ALOHA !!

NYUGrad/JimKingsland ...
I suggest you guys research agricultural land(zoned ag). I own five acres oceanview property here in Hawaii with a business and a home and I pay $398 annual property tax. Most states give property zoned agriculture a discount.

Farm land has also enjoyed an increased value and I believe it will outperform residential in the long run, especially here in Hawaii where land is in short supply(thats how it is on an island). This is how I play China/Japan/Asia ... they will be coming here in droves when the US dollar tanks and bidding up land values, especially rural.

Go to this link to see how US farm land values have appreciated since the 1900s.
Link: http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/farm_real_estate1900-2003landvalues.png

Before moving to Hawaii we had a 2000sq ft condo(PUD) in Pleasant Hill, CA(near San Francisco)and it had no land nor oceanview and we paid about $4000 annual property tax. Add in other disturbing taxes like sales tax at 8.75% and California State income tax and all other California excise taxes and fees and it just was not worth it stay there, much less retire there.

Not to mention the huge reduction in stress levels living a rural lifestyle. No freeways and no commute and no cubicles and no lines and no pollution and no neighbors! How can you put a price on that? Even insurance company statistics show that people who live in Hawaii live on average four years longer than those that live on the mainland USA.

I have to repeat my political platform for Hawaii ...
- Seceed from the USA
- Reclaim Hawaiian Monarchy with Bill Of Rights
- Declare Hawaii a tax haven for foreign business
- Print currency with gold and silver
- Print ultra rare stamps
- Declare Hawaii neutral like Swiss
- Remove foreign armies and navies(including USA)
- Eliminate income tax

Hawaii would become a Monaco/Bahamas only with a 5000 mile moat!

Right O' Bill, big sell off in gold and I waited....until the RS was in my sights.

All the heavy stuff and the machinery to dig it up are up today.

Thank You Bill!

Someone asked about JNJ.
I had a small position until yesterday. I sold when Cramer bad mouthed it mid day on what he perceives as a bad earnings report to come.
No matter, he took a few pts off the top and I caught it before it dropped.

Later it announced the recall on kids marking mouthwash.

Sometimes better to be lucky than good.

kaimu. have never been. want to go. my fiance would clean house as a pharmd there. I could run my business from home office and trade too. but I would have to get up at 3:30am for the market open. I'll stop there. And even though i get sick of the nyc crowds, i get restless when i am away for more than 2 weeks. The smells, crowds, overpriced everything, street vendors, subways without AC, all of it, is part of me. Besides, isnt the cost of maintaining all that land very high on a monthly basis?

Bill

The ECB has been selling Gold lately-47 tons in March.

Trichet is saying he plans to raise in June-but I think by
then the economy might be looking weaker.

Yesterday Japan reported that machine tool orders fell by
5.2%-they were expecting .4%.

The world economy looks to be slowing-inflation in the
pipeline and these central bankers are losing control.
They are all behind the 8 ball. Small changes in rates
won't make much diff methinks.

Cheers

Nice little goosing of the indices at noon. Someone wants this market UP.

With all the datapoints being aggregated my sense of 1Q GDP is possibly less than 2%. Heck if they hadn't figured out how to gin up the GDP Deflator by saying PCE went negative for the 1st time in 50 years in 4Q 2006, we'd be under 1% already. Anybody believe that PCE went DOWN by that much? Not me.

Looks like STO has formed a cup & handle. (Core Long STO position after reading a research report Bill cited months ago)

Bill’s comments on KRY action make sense. FWIW, I don’t read the BB, but I wouldn’t be surprised, that among others posting on KRY with rumors, are some of the contestants on that CNBC game that Bill mentioned the other day.

Agriculture: Next to CEOs, farmers should make out very well this year. The questions are: Where will they spend? Where will they bank? etc.

Reference CB talk---Although UK exports were down, U.K.house prices rose at a faster pace, as homes for sales fell to the lowest level in almost 3 years. IMO the Bank of England raises rates at May meeting.

Interesting to hear bubblevision "state" that Bill Gross believes the FED will lower rates this year while T.Boone Pickens is calling for $ 75 Crude before $ 55. Which SALESmen do you trust? :)

Great read Bill thanks

By the way Bill speaking of perception, wasnt it just a few months ago that we had a glut of crude and n.g.? Blink 100 days later and the Saudis evidently cant produce enough-this is the point in the cycle where Matt Simmons makes the rounds.

To think that a few dozen folks on the floor of the NYMEX (and the money they represent) actually dictate prices in real-time, frickin incredible!

The new oligopoloy; 6 largest refineries in U.S. all have fires the same month and are FORCED to reduce production :)

What a sham!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bill up 18 pts. on VLO in 90 days, as you know its overbought it seems knowing when to sell is alot more difficult.....

DOW Chemical fires 2 for "unauthorized talks:"

http://tinyurl.com/yrn8ur

ALOHA !!

NYUGrad ... My electric bill last month was $95. My water bill was $25. My propane bill was $15. I mow the 3.5 acres that is pasture(S African Pangola) every three months, which takes me about 2 hours on a tractor.

I have no heating system and only an air conditioning for flowers. If you design your house right you need no heating or cooling! We mostly run fans ... Electric utility(HELCO)here in this area is generated by geothermal. We wear shorts year-round even in Winter!

My water bill is so low because God waters most of the land here. I can throw a piece of an orchid root out on the side of the road and four months later it will be a blooming plant!

Gasoline here now is $2.95 per gallon, cheaper if you go to Costco. A loaf of bread here is $3.89 and milk is around $4(but we don't drink milk), in case Rudy G wants to know!! But I get all the fruit I want for free and yellow fin tuna cost me about a half day on my Zodiac, which I figure ends up being about $1.00 per pound! You can buy off the fishermen at Poihiki for $1.50 per pound right off the boat! If I spend an hour fishing off the beach here for reef fish I can get about a one months protein supply for two people.

In May I am going over to Kona to look at an investment in a fish farm that sells to Japan, run by the brother of the CEO of a Canadian mining company I have shares in. Amazing what you can do by networking on the internet and a phone!

We have downsized our life and our footprint on this Earth considerably, way before Al Gore made it a fad! I say fad because essentially it is the politicians and celebrities that want us to sacrifice so they can keep their Hummer lifestyle going! We are actually happier with less "stuff" and less stress. We do not miss the BIG CITY and would find it a tragedy to have to go back!

The alternatives are out there you just have to be committed enough ot find them and then actually execute your plan!

One bruddah to another, eh!

MarkM: "Someone wants this market UP"

Someone is getting what they want.

Notice how VIX & VXN (and SDS and QID resp.) keep being rejected at 10 and 20 dmas? 200 min ema/sma intraday crosses have been pretty reliable lately for range tops/bottoms: SPX, DJI crossed today (indicating a local top, that has not materialzied), COMPX has not crossed yet, but markets seem to be tracking 50 min ma (bullish) crosses.

My guess is markets close pretty flat today, but there have been bullish bounces off daily MAs across the indices today. And weekly MACD trending up to crossover, so look out above...

(That said, I nibbled on some QID today.)

t4k

Kaimu, I just copied and pasted your post into my other brain, gmail, so i will never forget it. thx for the insight!

Kaimu...are you on the Big Island...on the wet side...near Hilo...or perhaps near that thriving metropolis, Honokaa?

down near Pahoa, IIRC. He forgot to mention the mosquitoes! :P I lived in Hilo for a couple years and Kaimu's posts make want to visit again.

Re "Looks like STO has formed a cup & handle." See PDS. Someone mentioned it here a while back and I've kept my eye on it. Yesterday and today's action show what happens to a cup and handle. Just wish I'd bought more!

Today's rally doesn't smell right to me, either. Can't put my finger on it except for maybe the A/D line this morning. Even now +748 barely justifies an almost 6 pt gain on the SP500.

ALOHA !!

I am south of Hilo up from Kalapana about two miles from the coast, up past the Painted Church right after the 19 mile marker. If you look at published maps they list my mailbox number as a road marker on Hwy 130! The first time I have ever had my mailbox on a road map! I used to have an old beat up plastic mailbox full of geckos, now it is a modernized aluminum super box full of geckos! I figure if aluminum ever gets extremely valuable I can melt down my mailbox!

Literally I just finished running off thirteen wild pigs off my property! Three 200lbser adults and ten babies! Gotta watch the males they have tusks ... I just get our my boat horn and it scares them off!

ALOHA !!

There ya go Bill ... Thanks to that damn gum Google "eye in the sky" I have to watch what I do out here!!! Is there no place left on Earth where one can get some privacy?

Bill ... as this blog becomes a community I believe there may be enough entrepeneurs to start a link with a list of websites and a brief biz bio for shopping goods and services. I personally would rather hand my hard-earned cash out to those in this community than to the overpaid corporate CEOs you see peddling their wares on places like Amazon!

I personally believe my flowers are better than anything you could ever find at FTD for half the cost!! You cannot believe the scams out there I have run into in the flower biz!!! Obviously FTD is the 800 pould gorilla in my niche, but they cannot compete with my prices and quality since I have all the bases covered being a producer, shipper and end-marketer(both retail and wholesale side).

Our partner/customer base:
- Overstock.com
- Walt Disney Studios
- Denver Broncos
- Mirage Hotel and Casino
- Ruby Tuesday
- Albertsons
- Geoffrey Beene Inc.
- Zales Inc.

We also sell wholesale to a few wedding and event planners and do provide flowers for private weddings and funerals and special events.

We deliver to every state in the USA, Canada, Guam and Puerto Rico. We would be more international if FedEx would open those markets to perishables.

We do retail via the internet ...

Here is our link: http://www.kaimuflowers.com/

Anyone who orders and mentions Bill's blog will get a 5% discount!

Thanks for the opportunity Bill ...

I like this view of Kaimu's area:

http://maps.google.com/?q=4765+Pahoa+Kalapana+Road,Pahoa,Hawaii+96778&ie=UTF8&z=10&ll=19.390182,-155.177765&spn=1.025943,1.444702&t=h&om=1

and then of course there is the live Volcano cam:
http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/cam/

Would love to live there Kaimu, sounds wonderful!

TG

Wow, it's like yesterday never even happened! That's why I invest in stocks, 'cause the stock market goes UP and makes everyone rich...

(thankfully, it was a QID nibble, not a whole bite, so I avoided swallowing a hook)

Here's my general locale: http://tinyurl.com/38xhl3

Discount ski lessons for any billcara.com readers who venture to Taos, NM. We closed Easter Sunday, so of course it's been snowing here all week ;-)

t4k

Carlos Slim has overtaken Warren Buffett as the worlds 2nd richest man.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070412/ap_on_bi_ge/mexico_second_richest_man;_ylt=Aj3Ty31r4uxKLeklpgGYbX0DW7oF

Slim, who owns Mexico's dominant phone company and has holdings throughout Latin America, said his vision of a businessman's role in the world is at odds with that of Buffett, who announced last year he would donate $1.5 billion every year to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

"It's very interesting, because he leaves those who are running his affairs the responsibility of being very profitable," Slim said of Buffett. "If they're inefficient or don't get real-term returns, they're not going to be running anything."

"Our concept is more to accomplish and solve things, rather than giving — that is, not going around like Santa Claus," Slim said. "Poverty isn't solved with donations."

Regarding the volcano cam: Pu`u `O`o

Sounds like something my toddler says :)

Went to Hawaii for our honeymoon, spent a week on the Big Island and really enjoyed ourselves. Rented a scooter and doubled around the whole island in a day, which was admittedly a bit crazy. Rained the last 2 hours of drive, couldn't feel couple of fingers for a day or two :)

I'd move there in a heartbeat, but my wife takes issue with cockroaches and other large insects. All we have to worry about in Alberta is mosquitos...

Bill, the story below may be of interest to your readers. I think that the data in this case exposes the SEC to far greater scrutiny than anything Gary Aguirre exposed them to when he spoke before the Judiciary Committee. Imagine the SEC actually ignoring Wall Street laundering money for organized crime families.

http://investigatethesec.com/20070412.htm

Chairman Cox Please Say it Ain't So, More SEC cover-ups? - April 12, 2007

David Patch

Explosive cannot even begin to describe the lawsuit filed this week in the Broward County Courthouse in Florida [Case Number: CACE07007880].

Imagine having your company being systematically destroyed by members of organized crime and having Wall Street aid them in such destruction. Making matters only worse, how about having the SEC witness it all without taking appropriate steps to protect the company, their employees, or the investors who invested their personal savings into this business. At least that is what Eagletech CEO Rodney Young has laid out in a well-detailed and irrefutable lawsuit against a who's who of Wall Street firms.

The only ones excluded from this lawsuit, but who I see most responsible for the destruction, is the Securities and Exchange Commission. After all, the irrefutable evidence Young has against the members of Wall Street was provided as part of more that 50,000 pages of documents handed over by the Commission to Young during his appeal of the SEC's 2006 decision to terminate Eagletech's registration for failing to maintain SEC filings.

Yea that's right, the SEC actually sought out and kicked the victim after the victim lay beaten and immobilized by the street thugs better known as Wall Street.

In testimony taken by the SEC and provided to Young, the SEC questioned witness John Serubo of Bryn Mawr Investments about the mob related stock manipulation scheme against Eagletech.

Q: So Dorocki as an Executive Vice President at Salomon Smith Barney had no problem whatsoever dealing with mob people in his business.

A: No. He had no problem with dealing with - I only can tell you from my perspective he had no problem dealing with our firm or our deal.

Q: Okay, when Dorocki asked you to hold the stock price up, is that a form of market manipulation?

A: Absolutely.

Q: And your guy at Bank of New York knew that as far as volume goes that Bryn Mawr Investment Group was the holder of a significant number of shares and the remaining shares were restricted at Eagletech? Is that true?

A: Yes, not only did they know that. They also - when we told them sit on the bid at $12.00, a market maker is supposed to go into the market and if the next bidder was at eleven fifty he really should be, you know, a little above that instead of $12.00. But, you know, we told them $12.00. So, you know, they were - they were manipulating the stock as much as we were.

Q: When you were holding up the stock at 12, ten, and eight, who did those trades clear through?

A: Bank of New York. Their market maker actually sat on - you know, who ever they sold it to, Knight or whatever, sat on the bid for us on my end.

The amazing thing here is that in February 2005 the SEC charged John Serubo and 15 other Bryn Mawr and Valley Forge individuals for kickbacks in a stock manipulation scheme [Civil Action No. 05-CIV-852]. Never charged by the SEC were any individuals at Bank of New York, Knight Securities, or Mr. Dorocki of Solomon Smith Barney. Why not with the direct testimony of one of the accused and evidence in place to support the accusations?

The 51-page lawsuit filed by Eagletech has more tasty morsels of similar quality and kind exposing members of Wall Street to counterfeiting of shares, money laundering, and bribery. Each dish appropriately served up by the members of the Securities and Exchange Commission who, along with the US Attorney uncovered all this evidence during an investigation into organized crime and stock manipulation.

Which all leads me to my question up front - Why wasn't the SEC included in this lawsuit since clearly they witnessed the fraud and failed to take the appropriate steps to protect the company, company employees, and investors from such abuses? In leaving these distinguished members in the game it certainly allowed for other unnamed victims to be equally abused.

I hear that in some cases the SEC records obtained by Young do not even show the efforts of the commission to follow through on some of the bribery charges alleged by some of the accused. The SEC set up a speed trap but decided that only 1 in 10 would actually be charged with speeding. Quotas were set so as to not disrupt the general status quo of how the industry would operate.

As for Mr. Young and Eagletech, according to SEC documents there were 1218 retirement accounts that had held this security during the time it was being manipulated. Likewise there were 429 trust funds holding the security during the time of manipulation. And finally there are the unknown quantities of individual shareholders who purchased or sold securities during this scheme to manipulate. Certainly the commission should be responsible for explaining to each why their rights were not properly respected.

Please Mr. Cox, tell me it ain't so. Tell me that the Securities and Exchange Commission did not sit on evidence that documented a well-oiled manipulation scheme involving our most prestigious Wall Street Institutions working hand in hand with organized criminal enterprises. Tell me that the Commission, under your tenure, did not shut down the registration of this public company while holding the evidence that documented that the company was manipulated out of business by the very members of Wall Street the Commission failed to take action against.

Did the Commission really shoot the messenger here?

Rod Young lawsuit argues that the 5 major organized crime families were successful in conducting this scheme against his company and others because Wall Street firms aided them in the manipulation. SEC evidence of Bank of New York, Citigroup and others actually conducting the money laundering transfers offshore that made this scheme profitable to these criminal enterprises. How does the commission thus justify taking actions against the organized crime members and not the banks that aided them in conducting this scheme? Is there no accountability on Wall Street?

The more than 50,000 documents you provided cannot be called back. They are the documents that will expose the very prejudicial and vindictive environment that makes up the Securities and Exchange Commission. Shoot the defenseless little guys while allowing the institutional criminals to wreak havoc on small public companies and their investors.

A copy of the full Eagletech Lawsuit can be found at the links below (large .pdf file so give it time to download)

Maybe SEC Inspector General Walter Stachnik can find something here to look into. Lord knows he gets lost without a road map and a few gas station attendants to help him get home from work each night but this is rather damaging evidence against the federal agency he is commissioned to oversee.

Bill look forward to reading your comments per the following:

1). Bublevision is reporting that the alleged Eduard Pastorini making an offer for GFI does not exist.

2). First Schumer and now Barney Frank, such proposed bailouts for the Sub-Prime fiasco just go to show how stupid (or crooked) our elected leaders truly are. Getting time to shitcan even the money market fund I SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED MY MONTHLY TIAA-CREF CONT. TODAY AND WILL ADD TO MY LIST OF JUNIORS SENT TO U VIA EMAIL YESTERDAY!

My wife and I went to Honolulu a few years back. Got dragged into a timeshare presentation where we received a free 3-day car rental and dinner cruise. Booking around the island in a Mustang convertible was a blast!

Our most memorable point (other than the 3rd degree sunburn I got for snorkeling 4 hours without a t-shirt) was accidentaly driving into Pearl Harbor (the navy base) instead of Pearl Harbor (the monument & museum). Nothing like 2 Canadians invading a military base in their Mustang.

I wonder if the agricultural tax incentives apply to Canada too? Kaimu, I made the mistake of telling my wife about your Orchid farm. Expect an order any day now....

Bill,

Thanks,

I see the links to the lawsuits did not come up...

Here they are (there are several ways to get to it but beware, somebody keeps hacking in and shutting them dowm):

http://www.mediafire.com/?0cvmzctjmyz

http://www.zshare.net/download/eagletech-v-citigroup-complaint-filestamped-pdf.html

We will try to maintain an up to date link at www.investigatethesec.com

tfk posted:

"MarkM: "Someone wants this market UP"

Someone is getting what they want...

t4k

Posted by: trade4keeps at April 12, 2007 1:45 PM"

The other day I mentioned that the US Gov needs to keep assets inflated to keep tax revenues up. This means printing money.

If stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. fall, how will the tax receipts grow? The fed will print money and support markets to meet this end. That is "someone", IMO only.

With regards to gold:
-ECB sold 12 tonnes last week.
-57 tonnes sold in last month.
-Usual monthly sales have been around 10 tonnes.
-May 2006 saw 75 tonnes sold which dropped the price of gold by $100.
-We haven't seen this much gold sold since May 2006, yet the price has risen over $40 through all the selling.
-The gold price rise has been due to huge physical gold demand.
How high would gold have risen the past month without the central bank gold sales? $800 plus?

My guess is that the fed/treasury/ppt are working very hard at printing money to keep assets inflated WHILE selling gold/playing futures markets to the short side in order to keep inflation perception at bay. It is my opinion that "helicopter Ben" is working overtime. If this speculation is correct, this action by our gov is a complete piece of @#%.

This is also the reason that against all common sense I have remained long emerging markets and some US plays. It feels strange to be profiting from the "fools game", but profitable I will try to be.

I also feel that it is easier to step on gold stocks than gold itself, so I moved many gold positions to gold itself a while back. Good play so far.

Got gold?

rwedoomed?,

Thanks for your reply. I'll bet your 2005 sales conference was a well-funded event. Business was so good for awhile the broker who has refinanced my loans periodically over the years started his own company in 2002. He's hosted a company picinic every summer for his employees and clients-we'll see what happens this summer.

Sounds like your company has managed well so far-best wishes for getting through the slump. As you know, real estate always comes back.

Here's an explanation from TraderFeed of today's rally using a tool called MarketDelta:

http://tinyurl.com/2bpx59

His analysis is summed up in the sentence, "Quite simply, large traders bought the lows and stopped selling the market after the initial decline."

The accompanying graph is pretty convincing.

I'm getting more and more curious about adding this tool to my stodgy, old-fashioned setup for daytrading. Has anyone used it and have opinions either good or bad?

Bill

I was reading an article on GFI last night and was going to
post it but ya beat me to it. Then the DOW Chemical news
came up on the radar. Lots of Hanky Panky lately for sure.
I wonder if "that" video might have been a how to guide lol.

I've got the Hawaii jones right now. I'm dreaming of a trip
to Maui. I was in Honolulu about 10 years ago. Waikiki beach
was really beautiful. Drove around Kauai but never made it
to Maui. I visited a canyon on Kauai they say is the biggest
canyon in the Pacific. Hawaii really is a paradise. Its one of
the few places I've been that really lived up to the hype.

g034-

"My guess is that the fed/treasury/ppt are working very hard at printing money to keep assets inflated WHILE selling gold/playing futures markets to the short side in order to keep inflation perception at bay. It is my opinion that "helicopter Ben" is working overtime. If this speculation is correct, this action by our gov is a complete piece of @#%."

THAT'S THE PLAYBOOK. Why? Answer below.

Housing: CRATERING
Industrials: Near recession
Autos: In recession
Consumer: Switched to credit cards from mortgage equity withdrawal
Jobs: Only a matter of time
Credit: Constricting at the margins

This has been a credit induced recovery. It will die a credit contraction death. They all do. The only question is one of timing.

By the way Bill, forgot to mention, congratulations on
your blog. You've got a great community here and its
growing by leaps and bounds. Couldn't have happened
to a nicer guy. Well done!

G034--Thanks for the update on gold sales. I’ve been thinking about last May-June when the POG dropped and the $USD strengthened. There’s no reason not to think they won’t try again and I think it was Kaimu who opined that a few days ago. However, the recent gold strength in the face of large CB selling is an interesting tell. I don’t think they’ll give up easily.

Funny but I’ve added gold in lieu of more gold stocks for the same reason you cited. I’ve also been watching EEM for a point to short or buy puts but just watch as it continues to move up.

MarkM has it nailed—“question is one of timing.” The big WHEN---I hope we see it before it arrives. Heck, we could be looking at it now walking towards us!

Long: PMs & weakening dollar plays.

oil stocks look poised to move higher , making 6 month or greater highs..checkout TLM, CNQ, SU and for small cap lovers UTS, CLL oilsands symbols are TSE based

MarkM

This morning I had CNBC on in the background and the
discussion was about margin debt. They were mentioning
that margin debt in the market is now higher than it was
just before the 2000 collapse in the market. Scared the
hell out of me lol. I took profits and started to buy into
the QID for insurance.

Just checked asian markets, so far red showing in Japan.
Could change later in the day but right now only China
is showing green. I wonder how many will want to be long
into the weekend with geopolitical situation the way it is?

Forgot link:

http://tinyurl.com/24v3ok

OT

While we are talking about Kaimu’s house, check out the link to the Merrie Monarch Festival going on in Hilo right now. The festival celebrates the ancient art of Hawaiian chants and hula. It’s really cool!

http://www.merriemonarchfestival.org/

It plays on TV in Hawaii, not sure about nationally, but it is a real treat.

Kaimu, really dig your orchid’s.

One other thought, on Valentine’s Day, consider giving your sweetheart potted Orchid’s from Kaimu’s flower shop. I have been doing this for years and the women really like it as its different and the Orchid will last for months not days like Roses.

Congratulations, Bill. This blog has grown into a true trading/investing community. Its a pleasure every day to read the banter and learn the lessons, from you and the other community members here. Thank you all.
EJ

EJ-

All we need is for someone who works in the airline industry to step up with cheap airfares an we can have the FIRST ANNUAL CARA COMMUNITY INVESTOR SYMPOSIUM at Kaimu's!

Gold is "tacking" (honor: Al) on the charts as it waits for that PPI number to come out. This could be a very interesting day.

We have curious leadership on this leg up and relatively low volumes. Long but wary....

g034-

Stepanie Pomboy of MacroMavens is reporting that the Fed has been buying long dated Treasuries. Hmm. If inflation is really the problem why would they do that? Answer is above. Runnin' the Playbook.

If that happens, I will be there!
EJ