hello from germany

(thank god that we also have no trading here)

here is another look at the jobs number

"an autopsy on the march jobs report"

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

Japanese exchange to offer gold ETF.

The first gold-backed ETF began trading in Australia in March 2003.Similar funds are trading in Britain, South Africa, the United States, Singapore and India.

http://tinyurl.com/ytyhem

A number of lenders with Alt-A exposure are down pre-market due to the AHM news (http://tinyurl.com/2u2ks2) that came out Friday. I don't see another NEW in the making, but this development provides confirmation that the spinmiesters who claimed the home lending crisis was contained to sub-prime were, well, full of soup.

By Wednesday this bullish start will have faded.

Bill, will there be any way of telling just before the HB&B's get their bellies full and are ready to dump all over investors???

KRY is doing its imitation of a bottle rocket again this morning. Haven't been able to find any new news. Anyone else have any idea why?

writersblock ... as always, rumors of the permit. A well-known poster on one of the message boards claimed that key KRY officials were headed to VZ this week.

With the additional financing and hiring of a well-respected mine operator, rumors like this are taken more seriously. But as Bill has said before, none of this noise matters until the permit is, in fact, issued.

What's up with the Trannies and RR's this morning?

http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/viewmessage.asp?no=14605077&tableid=0

here is the KRY post.

Thanks, number2son and TheAdonis. I don't read rumor sites, but guess I'll have to, just to be ready when the latest roman candle takes off! :-)

Dumped most of my KRY this morning. This stock is constantly manipulated through rumor and innuendo. I have no doubt there will be another buying opportunity or two before the permit is released.

RR's and Trannies: Berkshire revealed 10% holding in BNI and undisclosed holdings in two other RR's.

That and oil dwn .67 and we're off....

Does anyone know what is propelling the recent melt-up in coal stocks beyond the pervasive M&A rumors and the seasonal derivative utility play on a warmer-than-expected summer?

JML

"sub-prime were, well, full of soup."

Bean soup.

Great humor!

http://www.examiner.com/a-663267~White_House_says_economic_surge_robust.html

"Contrarian precious-metals enthusiasts find themselves in a difficult position today psychologically. On one hand, global precious-metals fundamentals remain incredibly bullish with demand growth far outpacing supply growth. But on the other hand, what if the precious metals are sucked into the black hole of another worldwide stock-market selloff?"

"How can investors and speculators weigh the relative risks of a precious-metals bull powering higher for fundamental reasons versus the PMs plummeting for sentimental reasons? Stated in more direct terms, will precious metals and PM stocks be a good place to park capital if the general stock markets are entering a bear?"

continue reading here...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7311.htm

MU looks like it is going to take out its 52 week low today. Down 2% already.

Gold: what a job they did today. Looks like prices were drifting to the levels where they should be, but then someone woke up and slammed on the brakes.

It seems like AMD is artificially lifting INTC today.

CHICAGO (Reuters) -- Occidental Petroleum Corp.'s chairman and chief executive took in more than $400 million in compensation last year, the company said in a filing, one of the biggest single-year payouts in U.S. corporate history.

Looks like the rich getting richer...wow

I wonder if OXY's chairman would adopt me.

I have no problem with the rich getting richer, as long as they earn it. I just don't think they earn it.

I should say, I just don't think some of them earn it.

Ray Irani's salary last year was a mere pittance at 1.3 million. He has done a fantastic job at Occidental which has seen the share price increase over the past 10 years. He just happened to exercise his stock options which all of us did/do from time to time.

Good afternoon, Bill. Hope you had a pleasant easter.

Nice renewed strength in SLW past couple days. I nibbled on some MU. Let some btu and aci go today but bought some MIR for a quick trade.

I'd like to humbly offer Optionable (opbl) for your microcap stock index.
Optionable, Inc. provides trading and brokerage services to brokerage firms, financial institutions, energy traders, and hedge funds in the United States. The company offers natural gas and other energy derivatives trading and brokerage services. Nymex owns 19 percent of the company. As an otc stock it's been consolidating since reaching a high of 9.10 in Feb.

Since the start of Dr. Irani's tenure at the helm of OXY in 1990, shareholder return has been over 700% and the market cap. has increased over $30 billion. Its less expensive to pay a great CEO $400 million than to pay an average CEO $1 million.Paying $10 million for a Picasso is a steal while conversely paying $10 for an unknown artist can be a rip off. To be a successful investor one must look at the value, not the cost.

Sorry Bill. But if it were not for the women in his life Picasso would have been a nothing. Of course if it were not for the hard working people at OXY then perhaps Irani would have to had exercised his optiond at $9 or maybe nothing. Too bad Pablo never got to enjoy the wealth created by his art.

Years ago I worked for Lotus Development Corp, back when it existed.

At one company-wide meeting CEO Jim Manzi admonished all of us because he had noticed that his car was the first one in the parking lot in the AM and the last out at night.

Left unsaid at the meeting, but certainly not by the dozens of people I spoke to after, was that it was a strange notion that it was a sign of something wrong that someone paid millions and millions of dollars more than any of us might actually be working harder than all us. Somehow THAT was what was wrong with the Lotus that Jim Manzi rode into the ground on the back of two world-class software products (three, counting Magellan.)

Mike
NYC

PS I'm no fan of CEO robber barons. But is it right and accurate to attribute revenue from exercised options granted years ago as part of this year's 'CEO pay?'

Hi Bill,
I hope my comment didn't make it seem like I'm in favor of gross overpayment.

I'm just hugely in favor of accuracy in both my arguments and those of others. When I see something like "CEO X was paid Y dollars in 2006" and some of that is from options granted over a previous period of time, my "is this factoid correct?" antenna go up. I think overstatements can weaken one's argument, especially among those who pay attention.

I hope I didn't divert the conversation from piggish CEO behavior, which definitely warrants plenty of focus. And even options granted long ago deserve very close examination if the execs are engaged in stock price pumping to cash them in.

Mike
NYC

maybe its too simple, but $400MM is over $1MM a day, all year long. funny, when they trash the companies and do a poor job, they never seem to give any back. and yes, options are definitely compensation, thats why they are granted!

I remember reading in the late nineties about a guy who sold his paving business which he had built over 30 years. He gave ~$50,000 to each employee from the sale proceeds, based on seniority, because he felt they had been invaluable to building the company and deserved a share.

I've only ever heard one story like that. American's have embraced 'greed is good' for the time being unfortunately. The next deep recession may see some serious blowback against the oligopoly.

Thank you Bill, Jock and Jake. As I mentioned at the time I took the plunge into AZV along with several others.

I believe the the OXY compensation story is blown out of proportion. Would there have been an outrage if he had exercised his options evenly over the past 10 years. I say no. We just dont know what the good Dr is going to do with his new found wealth. Perhaps he will make a donation to the oil workers or but a Picasso.

I think Bill Gates has already passed the billion dollar club, but of course it is up to ones interpretation of compensation

In his 2006 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffet
described himself as the "Typhoid Mary of Compensation Committees". See pages 18/19 on executive compensation at...
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2006ltr.pdf

Its an overall entertaining read with interesting commentary about his days at Salomon, investment banks, compensation, investing, successorship, selecting directors.

As far as the $1B annual compensation it would be difficult to say who would receive it. It will happen soon. The only thing that can prevent it is the voice of the common shareholder or an activist group.

My best guess would place it within the next major boom. Some hot shot will be offered a boat load of options and an absurd salary and just when everyone the cries of "this time is different" began to grow louder he will cash out...

Bill Comrie gave his employees $40 million in bonuses when The Brick became an income trust in 2004. That was pretty impressive.

http://www.businessedge.ca/article.cfm/newsID/7833.cfm

I guess Barrick didn't get their Christmas wish for 2004.

"To Gregory Wilkins, CEO of Barrick Gold, a vanishing hedgebook."

Irani had to fill Armand Hammer's shoes. (CEO, Occidental, 1957 - 1990) Isn't that worth 17.5m/year extra since he became president in 1984? How else would he afford to buy art without pilfering from the company's coffers?

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m5072/is_n14_v12/ai_9111635

With inflation, the USD tanking, and cost of living increases, $400m may not even last him through retirement!

"Sorry Horatio. But if Irani had been paid a socially-acceptable (say) $10 or even 15 million a year, then his co-workers who contributed mostly to the company's success would have received some $300 million extra compensation."

OXY has around 8800 employees . Spreading $300 million over 8800 employees is an average of $34,000 per employee.

Look at it from this perspective. Of that $400 million that went to Irani, there is a big chance a substantial portion - $200 million or more will go towards charities, venture capital and other investments.

On the other hand, if the employees received that money instead, the likely hood is most of it would be spent on consumption and savings.They would likely buy new cars, clothes,electronics, upgrade their home or save the money. Less than 10% or $30-40 million would go towards investments and charity. The average employee spends or saves. Investing is an after thought and venture capital investments are beyond the reach of the average employee.

Money to fund cancer research,private hospitals, private schools, the museums, the arts ,start up companies etc come mainly from the pockets of the wealthy like Dr. Irani. The above mentioned items benefit society as a whole greater than consumption and saving would.

So I argue that society is better of with $400 million going to Dr. Irani than it would be if that amount were spread over the employees of Occidental.

Hi Bill

Irani did not make a pittance last year:

Irani's salary in 2006 was $1.3 million and his cash bonus was $1.4 million, according to the filing. But stock and option awards and other benefits lifted his 2006 compensation to $55.6 million, the proxy said.

Irani did do a good job for OXY....but when you consider there are billions of people in the world who go to bed hungry every night and millions who starve to death every year in the world...for one man to make so much money is not right in my opinion. These companies make money off the hard work and labor of people who make a lot less and do the heavy lifting.

Raiding the treasury has been a rewarding undertaking for America's corporate elite for decades. Executives spend an inordinate amount of time currying favour with board members ( those who aren't their "buddies" whom they put on the board themselves, and "working" with compensation consultants, bean counters and other professionals who have their own noses in the trough. All this talent and energy is wasted on creative solutions to satisfy the insatiable. It's all because greed trumps fairness and common sense and everyone near the top wants a part of the action. As Bill pointed out recently, now the lawyers who bring their "off-the-shelf" solutions to the deal room expect to be cut into the deal in ways that far exceed their grossly excessive fees ( Is there really anything new under the sun that someone 5 years out of law school can offer?). Don't wait for regulators or legislators to bring things into balance - they are all part of the corrupt process called American Capitalism. But its all coming apart because those who have kept to their knitting are quietly building competitive enterprises beyond America's shores. Most of us will witness history recording yet another empire's rapid decline into insignificance, and some may even profit from it.

On a lighter note.....

The British Government has said that their sailors
suffered terribly in captivity. That they were stripped,
blindfolded and kept in solitary confinement. That they
could hear their coffins being made. That they were
put up against a wall while weapons were cocked and
they feared execution. Of course we don't know exactly
what happened but the Iranians released a video today.

They say the Persians invented chess....if so...I think
they might be thinking several moves ahead of the Brits.

http://tinyurl.com/2aqy2b

"but when you consider there are billions of people in the world who go to bed hungry every night and millions who starve to death every year in the world...[for one man to make so much money is not right in my opinion.]

I will caution that this argument is a little spurious (and I really don't say that to be rude). when you consider that 2/3 of the world's population goes hungry each day...

Why spend $400K + for a home?
Why drink a $45 bottle of wine?
Why spend $20 on a movie?
Why spend $100 on a meal out?
Why take a $7K vacation?
Why spend more than $35K+ on a transportation?
---------------------------------------
There really is a terrific economic morality argument that can be made, but any is remiss if s/he confine it to talking about the salary of one highly-compensated individual. I'd wager a box of donuts that for most of us reading this blog, in the face of 2/3 of our world's people suffering real deprivation, EACH of us are as worthy of a finger wag on a relative basis as some are wagging at Irani. I'm quite certain that I've had compensation relative to a Darfur inhabit that is as seemingly egregious (morally repugnant as some suggest in light of 2/3....) as Imani's might seem to ours.

So it really is a relative argument--and given the extreme poverty suffered by many, that relative argument could just as well as be aimed at any of us.

Accordingly, I say emphatically, that 2/3 of the worlds population being in need is an an indictment of a great many more than Imani.
-------------------------------
I credit Dr. Peter Singer with raising my awareness of economic morality.

Hello Dear People,

Did you ever stop and wonder about why Jim Cramer, a very intelligent and savvy guy is (almost) always wrong about his stock picks...I have come to the belief that it's because he applies good, sensible old fashioned fundamental analysis, (as do most stock market amateurs, generated gratis by the sell-side) to to a task for which that methodology is unsuitable, namely, timing the purchase and sale of securities.
What I'm saying is, Bozo's like Cramer obsess about which companies are the "good" ones and which are the "bad" ones, and do not acknowledge that for the trader, there are no good companies and bad companies, just stocks that go up, stocks that go down, and stocks that are graveyards where your money goes to sleep for a very long time. Cramer does not much consider the question of WHEN to buy and sell. Truth is, (my opinion of course), there are no "good" companies or "bad" companies... Every dog has his day. Every bad companies stock goes up or down or sideways, just like every good companies stock does. The question isn't and never has been which companies to buy, the question is WHEN to buy which company. If you can get the "when" part right, the riches of the world will open up for ya. (still working on the "when" part)

Chris Hunter

Well, I would have to say that fundamental analysis will generally win out in the end, and that there are in fact good companies and bad companies. For the majority of "investors," to have picked a good company and see it stair-step its way up to a decent return is ample reward. For active "traders," the reward lies in correct timing. The jury is probably still out on whether investing outperforms trading, but for those who succeed in either arena, it doesn't matter. If you enjoy trading, it's all about the process. If you wish to invest intelligently, it's all about an adequate return with no hassles. It's almost like comparing someone who needs to tweak under the hood with someone who just wants reliable transportation. As for where Cramer fits into the picture, no comment.

Leisa...

I don't care about a $45 bottle of wine.....go ahead
enjoy your wine....he made over $400 million last year!

wait....I think I see your plan....if he reads your post..
he just might adopt you after all!

Just returned from a long Easter driving trip . . . reading the posts about CEOs and their pay. Yes, something has to be done.

The discussion reminded me of a most unusual CEO. I can’t help but think they threw the mold away when CEO Aaron Feuerstein came into the world. He was a different man, a leader. I was living in Boston when the fire broke out in ’95 at the Malden Mills. You don’t forget people like this.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/07/03/60minutes/main561656.shtml

Last I heard a private equity group out of Philadelphia recently bid on the bankrupt Malden Mills.

To this day, I buy Polartec made at Malden Mills if I have the option.

See you tomorrow

Chris Hunter, with respect to your comments I always appreciate what Laszlo Birinyi says: Birinyi Associates is a money management and research firm. Our analysis and research of the markets complement our portfolio management efforts. We are unique in that we do not analyze the economy, have little interest in corporate developments and fundamentals, and have little use for traditional, technical, quantitative or other market indicators. Our approach is to understand the psychology and history of the market, and most importantly the actions of investors. Much of our effort involves money flows, or what has traditionally been called ticker tape analysis. We follow the ideology of Charles Dow in our methods. As he stated years ago, start with the market's input:
"The market reflects all that the jobber knows about the condition of the textile trade; all that the banker knows about the money market; all that the best-informed president knows of his own business, together with his knowledge of all other businesses; it sees the general condition of transportation in a way that the president of no single railroad can ever see; it is better informed on crops than the farmer or even the Department of Agriculture. In fact, the market reduces to a bloodless verdict all knowledge bearing on finance, both domestic and foreign.
The price movements, therefore, represent everything everybody knows, hopes, believes and anticipates. Hence, there is no need to supplement the price movements, as some statisticians do, with elaborate compilations of commodity price index numbers, bank clearings, fluctuations in exchange or anything else. The price movements themselves reflect all these things, and therefore an understanding of the price movements of the market."
-Charles Dow

Bill, would you mind commenting on Uranium stocks Tuesday morning? I was going to add to some key positions, most notably Mega and Pinetree, but feared they were overbought... then the major moves happened Monday w/Uranium crossing the $100 threshold. It looks like we are seeing some stock breakouts and closing in on a few others.

Thanks again for your daily posts and insightful work, I look forward to the pre-market commentary each morning.

Bill, it puts a smile on my face to see a fan of his team touting them for the World Series. the Jays are pretty good. They'd be the second or third best team in the NL. But in the AL, they just don't have the arms to keep up with the Red Sox, or the firepower of the Yankees. Halladay and Burnett are too brittle. Love Vernon Wells, though.

A couple of microcap stocks: ACTC and IAUS. Both bulletin boards.

Lets Go Mets!

EJ

Dear Bill,

50 percent right I can live with. And congratulations to your 'Jays last night. Down here it's the Mets or, heaven forbid, the Yanks.

Telestar 3D......Regarding Charles Dow's quote, it's good to see that Chuck has finally come around to my point of view...

C.H.