hello from germany,

Nova Star Financial / Riding The Wave

german commercial real estate 2006 / or how the rolling bubble effects germany

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

here is a very good story from mish/mike morgan

No Spillover - No Contagion - Not

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/04/no-spillover-no-contagion-not.html

How is the HUI Index Performing Against Gold?

http://gold.seekingalpha.com/article/31251?source=i_email&u=7518

WGI/WGDF gets things done on the timeline they promise:

Western Goldfields' Mesquite now fully financed

2007-04-02 08:45 ET - News Release

Mr. Raymond Threlkeld reports

WESTERN GOLDFIELDS ANNOUNCES MESQUITE MINE IS FULLY FUNDED

Through its wholly owned subsidiary, Western Mesquite Mines Inc. (the borrower), Western Goldfields Inc. has entered into a new term loan facility with Investec Bank (UK) Ltd. Under the facility, Western Goldfields will be able to borrow up to $105-million in connection with its development of the Mesquite mine. The agreement and the company's recent equity offering complete the financing requirements for the mine. All currency amounts are in U.S. dollars.

"This is an exciting day for Western Goldfields," said Randall Oliphant, chairman. "The signing of this term loan facility completes the financing program that we undertook late last year to fund the development of the Mesquite mine. Together with our recently completed equity offering that raised net proceeds of $59-million, we now have all of the funding in place to bring the Mesquite mine into production."

The $105-million facility comprises multiple-draw term loans maturing Dec. 31, 2014, of which $85-million will be available to be drawn as required for the development of the Mesquite mine, and the remainder will be available for up to 12 months after completion for other corporate purposes. Western Goldfields previously announced estimated annual production of 165,000 ounces of gold per year beginning in April, 2008.

Achieving completion will require the satisfaction of financial and technical criteria and is expected to occur in the second half of 2008. Until completion, the facility will be guaranteed by the company. The facility is secured by a pledge of all of the shares of the borrower and all of the borrower's assets. Repayment of the facility will be on a semi-annual basis, commencing approximately six months from completion with mandatory prepayments being made from excess cash flow. Interest on each advance will be charged at U.S. London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) plus 2.20 per cent precompletion and 1.75 per cent postcompletion. The company believes that the representations, warranties, covenants and events of default under the term loan facility are usual and customary for project debt financing facilities of this type.

Terms of the financing agreement are consistent with those that the company announced in Stockwatch on Nov. 30, 2006, when it disclosed that it had signed a mandate letter with Investec Bank (UK) Ltd. for project debt financing. The availability of the funds is subject to certain conditions, including the borrower entering into an acceptable gold hedging program for approximately 450,000 ounces with certain lenders under the term loan facility, the resolution of certain ancillary agreements, and the delivery of usual and customary closing documents, opinions and certificates.

"The first deliveries of the $67-million mine fleet have arrived at the Mesquite mine site," said Raymond Threlkeld, president and chief executive officer, "and we are moving full speed ahead with our plans to develop the mine and to expand its reserves and resources."

We seek Safe Harbor.
http://www.stockwatch.com/swnet/newsit/newsit_newsit.aspx?bid=B-668074-C:WGI&symbol=WGI&news_region=C

I apologize for duplicating a post, but I did it late last night and just wanted a chance of getting a reality test from other more seasoned readers. Re: WIR comment...

Bill says,
"Yes, I think we are still in line for a precious metal melt-up (and $USD crash) this next quarter, but, alas, it hasn’t started by now, which I had hoped for. Maybe, psychologically, I’m just looking to cash out asap. Who knows?"

Bill has been so informative and correct that I may be erring in hanging on too much into what he says and in so doing read in more than what is being said.

The cash out part got my attention. My sense is that PM has certainly moved upward but it's not a sure thing that this will continue and that a full position in cash may be the harbor of security. Is this Bill's "psychological" position? Anyone?

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 1, 2007 10:57 PM

I have no position but know others here do, MU got an upgrade this AM from Baird.

ALOHA !!

WESTERN GOLDFIELDS LOAN FACILITY ...
Here we go ... Another "non-recourse loan" in the making. It bothers me that these bullion banks require "hedging"! Lets look at the details of the 450,000 oz. hedge. At the average POG of $650USD thats around $300milUSD hedge on a $105milUSD loan. What sort of "hedging" was required of Microsoft or GE or any other company taking out loans during their development? What about other "commodity" companies like ADM, do they have to hedge "wheat" or "corn"? It seems only the metals are forced to "hedge" ... Here you have a company with 165,000oz of annual gold production at the signing of the loan needing to hedge another 290,000 more ounces of production or another 2.7 years of production just to satisfy a loan for a new fleet of mining equipment.

I need to see what the "hedge" details are ... Who are these "certain lenders" that are requiring this "hedge position"? Is it a "hedge book" they seek like the one Barrick(ABX) has ... currently a $8bil anchor on future earnings? Now thats what I caall a "fair shot"! I wonder if management sought out other "non-hedging" sources for these funds? Yes, more details please ...

kaimu,

would you be more apt to buy ECU.V or CNU.V at their current prices (2.5 & .55) over WGI.TO? I recall that you've mentioned both names before in your posts as holdings. Any more ideas?
By the way, another moly company you may want to look into is GPXM its on the otc bb. located in Vegas, producing. they have a website also: golden phoenix minerals. I think you mentioned moly last week sometime.
A hui hou
And thanks.

Over the last 12 months GoldCorp has significantly underperformed when compared to the price of gold itself, and the XGD miners ETF on the TSX. At the time of the Glamis acquisition last year, and when GG was severely depressed to around the $23/24 level, that was considered as a deal of a life time by many here. If the price of gold is going higher, this deal seems to be presenting itself now again. Opinions?

Back from Detroit, but will be away from the markethttp://tinyurl.com/2o49l8s most of the day.

FWIW, April historically the second best month of the year per: http://tinyurl.com/2o49l8

TraderMike.net has a pretty good example of capitulation on a chart.

Looking ahead to where we may be going: At the close Friday, dipped the toe into MZZ. Will keep a close watch.

Be careful out there, have a great day!

HB&B watch: $XBD and XLF pierced 200 day EMAs this morning, appear headed for 200 day SMAs. Is this a tell for Q2'07?

LL&P

t4k

I have a very twitchy trigger finger on this market boys. Every time I think I'm going to close or cover my puts and watch it float higher another piece of data comes in that says "Recession Warning!". If this weren't being um "supported", one swift kick would send it over the cliff.

ALOHA !!

Eric ... Yes, I own all companies you mentioned. ECU Silver(ECU.V/ECUXF)is also currently a producer. I own them because of the size and grades of their deposit, same as Continuum Resources. ECU shares have not performed to my liking and are dirt cheap considering the mining operation they have. There is some question regarding "shorting" or "sales" by a hedge fund that owns a large share block of ECU. I cannot confirm that even though I have repeatedly contacted the "hedge fund" with no success. Reminds me of the old "60 Minutes" Mike Wallace interviews when the crooks replied "no comment"! Anyway, in the long run the deposit is too big to be ignored! I still say it is a "buy" where it is and I have bought at this level and below.

Continuum is also a "buy" for me at this level for the same reasons as ECU. Instead of owning a large mine Continuum Resources(CNU.V/CUUEF)owns a large mining "district"! I guess both Agnico Eagle(AEM) and Sprott Assets agree since they own about 35% of Continuum combined.

MolyCor(MOR.V/MLYFF)is my best "junior explorer molybdenum" play as I mentioned in a prior post. I compare it to Adanac Moly(AUA.V/AUAYF), which is trading over $2.00 right now. MolyCor recent drill results show grades that are better than AUA has. AUA best grades are MolyCor's worst grades! As far as Golden Phoenix(GPXM)they have great grades but they still have the Mineral Ridge debacle hanging around their necks. I won't go into the cash flow details lets just say "debacle" will suffice for now! What I like about MolyCor over the others is that they are not just a pure "moly" play in that they have properties for gold and silver in Nevada and PGMs in Canada.

Recall I mentioned the concept of "mining incubators" in the past ... like the dot.com incubators in the 1990s. Well MolyCor and Adanac Moly are part of my "mini-HD Group" incubator, the "LR Group". In the past I mentioned that the HD Group was the biggest junior mining incubator in the industry with companies like NDM, ANO, GBN and FAN under their umbrella. I believe the "LR Group" will achieve great success like the HD Group. Maybe not as BIG but success is success no matter what level you're on ...

ALOHA !!

I forgot to add that MolyCor(MOR.V/MLYFF)has no "geopolitical" risk. All their properties are either in the USA or Canada.

Dead-fish analysts are still hooked

fleckenstein also on newmont

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/DeadFishAnalystsAreStillHooked.aspx

I have a premium service that puts out long term ports a few times a year. Usually risk averse. Currenntly, all cash. For trading they also have "trades", never held past quarterly report. Just put out an alert for LEH. They see multiple positive divergences.Looks like free money but I'm passing.

MarkM -

Same position as you Mark. Esp. w/expected news out on NEW by WSJ and Financial ETF looking red right now:

New Century Files for Bankruptcy
By Lingling Wei and Marie Beaudette

New Century Financial Corp., once a highflying subprime mortgage lender, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del., becoming the biggest casualty of the turmoil in the U.S. market for high-risk home loans.

In its Chapter 11 filing, the Irvine, Calif., lender listed more than $100 million each in assets and debts.

Among its biggest creditors are Wall Street firms that have demanded that the lender buy back dud loans earlier sold to them, ...

onlineaces,

In Irvine right now with my son visiting the UCI campus (starting college this fall and making the rounds). I see alot of new construction in the area, with signs for condos starting in the upper 300's for a 1BR. People are saying prices in general have come down 15-20%. With so many sub-prime lenders based in the area and expected to cut staff, the price drop could accelerate.

Re: XLF

I've been watching the put options on XLF and there is a lot of activity at the 35 strike. I'm waiting to see if this level can be defended. Maybe on the breach its time to open a position on SKF (double short XLF)for a trade? Just watching right now...

Miggs

ALOHA !!

onlineaces ...
New Century lists $105mil in debt and $36mil in assets ... WOW ... look at that dividend yield 704%!! Will they still be paying dividends during bankruptcy? Somebody please tell me why that stock is still trading above $1USD?

2nd_ave ...
When will the Irvine Ranch go public? Do they have any land left? I used to live in Newport Beach/Costa Mesa and would ride my road bike to Laguna Beach every weekend. Right after I passed Corona there was a vast empty space until you got to Emerald Bay. There used to be a "Date Shake" and "Orange Inn" there and some horse stables and that was all ... no houses ... nada! I always thought that would be the next target for developers ...

kaimu -
I really don't know and would like for someone to explain how as well. I don't know how to accurately value a bankrupt company.

According to WSJ:
"In connection with the Chapter 11 filing, New Century said it will reduce its work force by about 3,200, or 54%, to cut costs and resize certain businesses in preparation for a possible sale, effective immediately."

I guess the market thinks NEWC.PK is worth $1.02 today?

Good morning-afternoon, Bill.

With the U.S. opening a new war front -- China, though Iran may be on the way -- it would seem a no brainer to buy gold and silver. AEM, UXG AND HL seem to be doing well despite the (artificial?) pressure.

I'm as nervous as anyone but think the PM stocks will come through this in good shape. Also like BG as a soybean play.

New Century--their service mark was "A different shade of Blue Chip"

With today's news, I guess that means red.

SiO2:

GG hit a low of $20.38 in early-Oct06 then touched $21 mid-way of the same month. I would be a buyer if it moved into the $22 range but I don't expect that to happen soon if at all this year.

Long GG and SLW

I don't know if there is any relevance to this point or not, but LEND bought Aames Capital--and I think that Aames was active in buying these stuctured loans (from New Century if I follow it correctly).

I do note that in at least one prospectus agreement for NEW Century that bankruptcy is an event of default for the indenture agreement. It will be very interesting to see how this unfolds. I don't think that it will be pretty.

THANK YOU Bill Cara for your explanation.

And another thank you to Bill...I've gradually been expanding miners. PM around 16%. I think of myself as knowing the etfs fairly well and completely overlooked GFX...highlighted this WIR. While it's nice to have specific stocks that do well I really like to balance risk with diversity of an etf.Bought on the dip this morning...really just luck...and my entire account is well into the green. DBA lifted and I wonder if the sudden fall in agricultural prices is now being in doubt, ergo inflation is a threat. Fwiw, as a proxy for DBA I follow $Gkx. Performance comparison chart:
http://tinyurl.com/2pt33m

Somebody is goosing the indices today...

Very obvious on the charts.

Kaimu, Bill, others.

Any observations on the Holdings of McEwen Capital (Besides US Gold): Lexam Explorations (LEX), Coral Gold (CGR), Everton Resources (EVR), Golden Valley Mines (GZZ), Guyana Goldfields (GUY), Mineral Andes (MAI), Nevada Pacific Gold (NPG), Tone Resources (TNS), White Knight Resources(WKR)? Which ones do you think are home runs in their own right?

Stagflation risks on the rise-
Hide in Gold & TIPS

David A. Rosenberg

02 April 2007

mark m,

does that include the gold miners? i'm gonna begin to think that Bill is the door keep to the money store.

Tim47 I guess this takes three off your list..

Press Release Source: US Gold Corporation

White Knight Resources, Nevada Pacific Gold & Tone Resources Shareholders Overwhelmingly Accept US Gold's Offers!
Friday March 23, 9:57 pm ET
Source: US Gold Corporation

READY TO BUILD NEVADA'S PREMIER EXPLORATION COMPANY!

ALOHA !!

Tim47 ... Looks like RonK answered part of your question regarding UXG. I own US Gold, I bought the day that "ROBMANIA" started for $0.72USD back when the symbol was USGL. I still own it but I sold off in the $9 and $10 range because even with "ROBMANIA" UXG is still an unproven junior explorer with under 500,000 reserves. I think investors forgot that and bought the hype of the next GG! Any production is still a few years off! UXG is a long term hold for me. Same goes for Minera Andes except that Minera Andes is a lot closer to production than UXG is!

kaimu & onlineaces,

I wouldn't waste time making sense of the persistent value of New Century's stock (say above 5 cents for a far-out option on a miracle that salvages the whole mortage/real estate market - maybe aliens will muster cash drops of a magnitude that will trump even Helicopter Ben's wildest dreams).

I have witnessed (and dabbled) in similar penny stocks of bankrupt entities. If you're into gambling and/or if you have a good grasp on the psychology of penny stock traders (esp. small retail investors holding onto the hope to make a killing) and the news flow that drives them, you can try your hand. I've overheard many a conversation at local Starbucks between novice investors/day traders sucked in some kind of system/scheme peddled by boiler rooms' alums where trading in such stocks is the promised land.

As for New Century's future, I have a very hard time seeing them ever emerging from Chapter 11. Now that they unloaded their servicing business and stopped extending new loans, what going concern claim can they legitimately make to the judge? More likely, they'll end up amending to a Chapter 7 liquidation for vultures to share on the remnants of the unencumbered loan portfolios. Net stock price = $0.

JML

Thanks RonK and Kaimu,

I vaguely remember those acquisitions, but forgot to put them in my Journal!!!

In his "Insight Publications," McEwen discusses the Life Cycle of a Mine, Dividing it into Discover, Build, and Produce; and he states that the best time to buy in in the downside between Build and Produce - and then he says that Minera Andes in currently entering stage three, with their San Jose mine scheduleed to begin production mid 2007, in addition to large copper deposits discovered at Los Azules. Comments???

OCC’s Report on Bank Derivatives Activities Fourth Quarter 2006:

"The operational infrastructure improvement effort now focuses
on equity derivatives in addition to credit derivatives."

"Derivatives activity in the U.S. banking system is dominated
by a small group of large financial
institutions. Five large banks represent 97% of the total
notional amount, 79% of total revenues and 88% of net current
credit exposure."

"Bank derivative contracts remain concentrated in interest rate
products, which represent 82% of total notionals. "

"U.S. commercial banks generated record trading revenues of
$18.8 billion in 2006, versus the
previous record of $14.4 billion in 2005. "

"Credit default swaps represent 98% of the total amount of
credit derivatives. "

http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/deriv/dq406.pdf

CDOs Who holds the risk?

FDIC: We have no information

Sales teams: Will not talk

Experts: Maybe Asia

Research firm Graham Fisher & Co: Impossible to find out.

Associate finance professor: Can't give a definitive answer.

Theory: Pension funds and insurers.

Veteran MBS analyst: Foreign investors

Hedge fund manager: Banks

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/whos-winning-lose-subprime-shakeout/story.aspx?guid=%7B20967453%2DD958%2D4D99%2DB40B%2D59C0E80FC036%7D

Leisa,

Stopped out of FMT/LEND today, and based on the after-hours news, it was a good thing. Next time I'll check in with you first!

kaimu,

I'm not familiar with the Irvine area, just visiting. But I did learn that UCI bought the land it owns from a developer for $1 in exchange for rights to the construction and leasing of the structures around it, and it appears to have been a smart move for the developer.

Also need to thank JogyP for the 14% move in KRY since his Friday afternoon post.

>>Somebody is goosing the indices today...<<

I noticed that too. Hit TIKI +24 13 times, and TIKI +26 4 times.

I may be eating crow for breakfast.

And what's the scoop with Hecla {HL}? I see no news, but today's action is a pattern I don't see too often.