Citi has a stale buy on SUN since Sept 06.

"One Trick Pony", the world's major oil companies engineer price rises by restricting gasoline supply through manipulation of oil-refinery output.

It also describes the Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude differences and how they are priced.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/ID24Dj01.html

you all have a good week. jk

Bill, What's your take on Jake Bernstien that publishes COT report ? TIA

RE: One trick pony.

No wonder US based refineries start having humungous problems/forced shutdowm just prior to the start of peak summer driving season.

CIBC upgraded SLW from "sector underperform" to "sector perform" today.

Doh!

Ok, I'll try to redeem myself by posting something that is actually "news" (or at least of interest to regulars here).

On 4/17, Beutel, Goodman & CO Ltd. filed a 13-G indicating it has taken an 8.8% stake in Western Goldfields (WGDF).

Bill, I have used your site today and have tried both Firefox and Safari. Both downlaod fast. Thanks.

jk484:
tx for posting the 'one trick pony' article.
very educational for me...and provided context also for an article in today's Globe & Mail -page B7 - about West Texas Crude, titled "The pitfalls of a 'broken benchmark' ". sry. no link, as it is a reprint from The Wall Street Journal.

Anyway, anecdotally, we know all about this gas price manipulation...eg. a 4-6 week ago or thereabouts, at a time when gas was selling in the low 90's cents/litre here in Waterloo, Ontario, there was a fire at the nearest refinery in Sarnia and gas prices immediately spiked to 105.9 c. At the time, news reports opined that prices should drop again in about 2 weeks time following repairs. Prices have never fallen below $1 and yesterday were $1.03..
Ah well...doesn't affect me...no driving for me now...just sitting here, hour after hour, and reading Bill's blog and the links therefrom...

Just a comment regarding "banner ads." You should be certain that any ad imported from "off-site" is active code (scripting and "X") free. Active codes are inherently less secure and permit potential manipulation of browser settings and non-browser programs WITHOUT user permission and/or knowledge. In fact, I do not allow any such codes to run on any of my systems by default since the security folks are always a step or two behind the scum and have been since about 1999. When the choice is between "cool features" and security on a system that is used for financial matters I say "adios" to the cool features (like animation in advertising). You should too.

I would rather just donate $50.00 to the cost of the website than face banner ad's.
I agree with the post by Esbisworried that these ad's are are possibly a security risk.

Bill,
I would pay to access your site as well.
Cheers

Gold seems to be getting tired now.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Canadianmachinist...

Static active-code-free ads are essentially safe.
The key point is the prohibition of any active codes.

As an aside...the worst mainstream site for this kind of thing is forbes. A family member who works with secure codes over at MSFT calls it a "bloat-pig." (By which she means that each page is stufed to the gills with kilobytes...or even megabytes...of less than secure useless active code bringing up stacks of security-violation dialog boxes.)

me too in hopes that this frees you up to write and have more time to care for your health

i am sure nervous since the wir. how do i capture opportunity without being a nimble trader, and I have looked in the mirror and know that i am not...and still be tactical enough to get out of the way of the bear?

reading your morning notes is now as addictive as my java

Bill,

I use firefox, and notice that your WIR loads much faster now. Again, thanks for the great blog. Wish you take enough rest and go slow.

Bill:

10:55AM when I tried to access your site, my screen displayed the following message:

BANDWIDTH LIMIT EXCEEDED

The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to the site owner reaching his bandwidth limit. Please try again later.

Apache/1.3.36 server @ www. billcara . com

But later all was well when I tried again.

Bill,
If the feedback helps, I wouldn't have a problem paying a subscription.

I am up at 4:30 pacific time to go over the markets and your morning report is a big part of my morning.

While the info is vital, the big thing for me and maybe others here is bouncing our ideas, feelings, intuitions, information amongst others with similar goals that is the most benefit. It's really nice to be able to get intelligent timely feedback.

BTW, as far a timely, this server is much faster (I'm currently using the Mr. softee product).

In the spirit of sharing, which for all i know should be taken as noise, I have been accumulating an energy etf...PBW....alternative clean energy companies. Makes me feel good, but really would not have happened if my software program had not picked it.

Kaimu et al:

A friend of mine is an american history professor. He is in the camp that believes if one is to appreciate history one also needs to study concurrent economic history. He suggested reading the following book: The Money Men: Capitalism, Democracy, and the Hundred Years' War over the American Dollar by H.W. Brands. Any other recommendations that would help grasp the role of central banks and their power to help or harm us?

Two matters:

First, when I tried to reach your blog via the AOL browser, I got a message that the requested page was not available. I switched to Firefox and boom! there it was -- and faster too, it seems to me.

Second, your gift to us of your blog should not also include an expense to you. I know of two subscription services. The owner of a twice-a-month letter on PCs and related software issues leaves it to people to contribute what they will. He told a small group of us that the average contribution is about $11 or $12 annually, which is profitable for him, possibly because he also carries some advertising, delivers electronically (no postage costs) and has no promotion costs (subscribers come by word-of-mouth). A blog owner with daily content originally left it to people to make their own decision about a contribution amount for access to the enhanced version of his blog. The owner has since set an annual fee of $50 and carries no advertising.

Finally, we all know that health is wealth. I hope that if you consider a fee (or contribution) model that it won't also make you feel "obliged" to create content should you not feel up to it and/or need to rest. On this point I think I speak for the entire community that you have created and brought together. Any time you need to rest and recover, REST AND RECOVER. Please!

I just received this email, asking if I have been victimized!!! what next? I guess everyone needs an out.
"If you, a family member or friend are in fear of losing your home or have already lost your home as a result of the loan or refinance you purchased, there is a chance you may have been a victim of predatory home mortgage lending practices. Don’t hesitate. Fill out our survey now. You may qualify for monetary compensation."
Brian

Good morning, Bill.

Thanks for the heads up on western goldfields. Looks like others are also paying heed, seeing as volume is already at the daily average and it's just past noon in new york.

Ah, ambulance chasers.....no doubt to be moved to a class action suit where the lawyers get the $ and the "victims" zippo.

And who pays for this silliness? I don't want to bail out foolish borrowers or lenders.

Dear Technicians,

I am asking for a technician better than myself o help me analyze KRY. I know the the down-window is tremendously bearish. Is the price still staying near the 20 day in preparation for an up-move, or is the recent days' formation a pennant or something similar portending another down leg of perhaps, equal proportion to the last?

Chris

Shark - I'm no expert, but seems to me KRY can lurch down (as on 1/28) or skyward (as on 3/38) depending mostly upon rumors, or whether Chavez does something perceived as crazy or not so crazy. The indicators I use are not saying buy, but if Chavez does something perceived no so crazy, or the permit finally emerges, KRY could jump.

For much of last year a stop of 2.59 held (and made it easy to hold KRY shares) but that period ended on 1/18/07.

Not an easy stock or story to love at this point. But I DO believe they will ultimately get their permit and go way up. Frustrating, huh?

ALOHA !!

Continuum Resources - CNU.V/CUUEF.PK

Lately there have numerous articles out on CNU and I have noticed the share price increase after PDAC. Today the share price is up near 10%-14% on near 1mil shares.

So far the reports I have read are a bit short and sweet, but I ran across this report that spells out more detail than usual and has set a price target at $1.60C ...

If you are considering buying into a junior explorer this year I would recommend that you read this report as it covers a range of "pros and cons". Of course I am long Continuum Resources as I have said so in the past.

Link: http://continuumresources.com/CNU_UpdateApril12-2007.pdf

Bill or others,

given the favorable divergences(rsi 14 vs price) in place on the US Dollar just above major 80 support are gold and oil vulnerable. And, I think if one goes back 15 years the Dollar has found support in the 79-80 area many times over those years. Will gold or oil be able to move without the dollar going below this area?

worried, no place to take cover.

market kind of unhappy here GM comments

GM's Lutz: April US auto sales across industry hit by 'mortgage industry meltdown'
This is being reported by Reuters

Paulson: Sub prime lending fall out remains contained. (Just Last Friday). Oh Yeah !

Al-Qaeda ‘planning big British attack’

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1687360.ece

Bill,
Upon further reflection.....
If accepting advertising were to further free you to pursue more free time in some tropical paradise of your chooosing, then I'm all for it too. The ad path may work out better for your future endeavors, we should be open to those possibilities too.

Hi Bill,

If you go to a paid model, you've got a suscriber here. Howevever, what about trying first with donations. If even a small percentage of your readers came through with $50 donations, that might make it possible to avoid the banner ads.

Just an idea.

Thanks for writing the best financial blog on the web.

Brad

Evidently Paulsen and Lutz dont play racketball at the same club...

Bill note ACI and BTU getting juiced today on rather average guidance by the former (ACI trading near 20X Forward Earnings at the top-end of estimates). The game continues kids Nat. Gas firms get a downgrade so money can move over and bid-up the coals.
Disclaimer XTO is a core holding granted its had a nice run but to sell at 10.5X earnings to bid-up coal is plain silly :)

Here is a site that has a historical view of the dollar, gold and the CPI.

Would the community mind reading parts of this for bias and historical accuracy? Does this accurately model what is going on now?

http://www.zealllc.com/2000/damnlies.htm

-Quentusrex

Re: Coal stocks. I closed my position today in aci. I think btu and aci might need a rest after a nice week plus of gains. I bought some rail as a secondar play on coal and railroads.

We got the drop, albeit small, in PMs today but i'm gonna wait a few more days to add. I wonder if Wednesday's gold and silver contract expirations will be an excuse to pressure the PM stocks.

As read this the other day I had to stop and try to remember a time that rivaled what we face now:

"As a capital markets trader, at the beginning of January I sat back to assess the worsening big picture. What I saw was a situation in the Middle East that had become doomed to failure and a political leadership that had lost its moral compass. I concluded that these people – Bush, Blair, Harper, Cheney, Rove, Libby, US Attorney General Gonzales, and the rest, would lie to any extent and take whatever extreme action they deemed necessary, to mislead The People in the hope we would continue to serve the vested interests of their financial supporters. Having totally and utterly failed the people they were elected to represent, they decided to turn over the mess to Goldman Sachs insiders.

What a mess they have put the world in."

The question that came to mind again and again
was.....

How do you invest in a rigged market?

It is now right out in the open.....and a lot of people are losing their jobs and their retirements as a result.

A recent example is Dana. The bankruptcy is about benefits and pay for workers not profitability. There are many more.

I think we are witnessing the biggest transfer of wealth in our history. Away from the middleclass into the hands of the rich and well connected. And a lot of people out there in the "real" world are running from asset to asset trying to keep up.

This won't end pretty.....

Bill reads me exactly right. I'm a relative strength investor stressed out. I'm holding less cash than in a long time when risk seems greatest. Did I say I'm stressed out?

Re micro caps. I have fallen in love with a few stories that took me down the road of ruination. As a dispassionate asset class, though, makes perfect sense. In my hypothetical lazy buy hold portfolio, there are some etfs that index it. Look forward to Bill's plan because he would sell as needed without hesitation.

So many good new technologies are out there, waiting to be improved upon and mass produced, but entrenched businesses will fight tooth and nail to maintain control. Think about how deflationary solar, wind, and geothermal power could be if implemented. How about this - www.airwatercorp.com and this - www.aquasciences.com - Can you imagine the burden lifted from society if this can work on a large scale? Who will need utilities? Look up Apollo diamonds (google diamonds wired magazine)- with all the trouble they cause, why mine them?

Anybody here a fan of the Rocky Mountain Institute (www.rmi.org)? The principals involved wrote Natural Capitalism back in the 90s. If you can find the time, read "Winning the Oil End Game." If you are interested in finding ways to trsnform the ways we live while improving the economy, you might find some of this stuff interesting. Delocalization of resources like water and energy will have some startling implications, namely the return of control to individuals and away from centralized power, if people are willing to fight for it. We'll see how fed up my fellow Americans really are after the "downturn".

The world always seems to be going to hell in a handbasket, but its really just the world as we know it that gets "ruined". Boomers have run the US, and the world, for quite a long time now. Fear of losing control will make many people do strange things; morality, ethics, and even law tend to go right out the window. What we need is some good old fashioned optimism and sorry, some sacrifice too. It's the only way to stay competitive with the rest of the world. We have a head start, I just hope we don't lose it.

Would it make sense to go long oil or natural gas (USO/UNG) during a market downturn as an alternative to going short? Is anyone able to come up with an oil/NG price chart going back to the 1920s?

Bill,

"I believe the character of the stock market in North America and Western Europe will soon change (is changing!) to a stock pickers market, and that the best deals out there are names you have never heard of, but are companies that have all the elements in place for 3 to 5 year success"....

What you present is highly probable. The take-out rate for blue chips by private equity is unbelievable. Many of those remaining already have a management culture acting as though they are privately held - to hell with the shareholders! So what's going to be left to the open market is but, for the most part, what you described: a new generation of companies and a new generation of shareholders.

Here is the competitive power of a microcap with transformative technology (actually a startup): http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070423/ap_on_hi_te/online_backup_2

This is part of the reason I am extra wary of paying big multiples for tech companies. They can be huge successes one year, then disappear as competitors find new technologies. Anyone remember zip drives?

Bill,
What do you think about Nautilus Minerals NUS.V? It had over 20% rise in the last 2 trading days.
I took the plunge and bought some WGI this morning!
Thanks for all your insight Bill! Cheers

It's a predator world out there. Always something better or something better marketed.

Today I hold one stock from the past which I continue to believe has great potential. Problem is that now that it finally has revenue and less debt managment may want to make the big bucks by taking it private. No public evidence but us old timers smell a rat. Add that to the problem list. Still, hope springs eternal. Company: Ramtron. Any other old timers?