discussion on the coupling of USD and S&P .

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/ID21Dj01.html

hello from germany,

currency report / daily show :-)

valuations china contruction stocks / nasdaq geloaded

Credit derivatives - At the risky end of finance / Economist

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

have a golden weekend

Yikes! Gold is shooting up this morning.

Like I said yesterday, it's been a freaky week.

TGIF from the pollen ridden but otherwise beautimous Deep South of the USA!

I hope BC is right about the PM's today as a healthy rebound will solidify another profitable week of speculat...errr investi....errrrrr trading. :)

Anyone else becoming nauseated over Big Media's human angle push over the easy money crunch? The mo-rons (its a Southern thingy) inside the Beltway, yes the very same Drunken Sailor Spendthrifts who have put the future generations of Americans in 6 digit depth and counting, profess to be seeking a cure for the very thing they so artfully practice. Makes me ill it does. Followers of Mish will enjoy his take on it:

http://tinyurl.com/d8q6j

Anyone summarize past month's changes in cara 100. I would like to update my prior list which is organized alphabetically rather than by sector. I could make my own spread sheet from the WIR list and then compare, but if it anyone knows the last 3 or so substitutions it would be easier and less prone to my human error. Thanks.

Inclined to fade the strong open this morning. Adding to SDS for a trade. (Should disclose that none of my short side trades have worked so far.)

Dip-buyers who picked up PMs yesterday should be smiling this morning. Again inclined to sell into strength.

I ordered Michael Panzner's book a few weeks ago and just started reading it. I hope it doesn't get that dismal, but it pays to be ready if it happens.

Good Day everyone! Aren't you glad you bought PM's yesterday?

I bought more MU, SLW, UXG.
I was stopped out of MOS on the gap down with a 20% profit and bought back in 4% lower.
Long MU,GLD,UXG,SLW,MOS,GME,JNJ. 70% cash.

Be careful on the YBR Dorothy. Don't surrender and beware the man behind the curtain.

SDS and MZZ at 52 week lows.

Oh, for heaven's sake, take it to 13K already and let's get this party started! ;-)

2nd: I'm watching double inverse ETFs (DIETFs, some acronym!) as well, but will NOT buy until VIX & VXN can sustain an intraday uptrend above MA support (like 10 min, 20 min, 60 min smas) with sustained intraday ema/sma crosses. The gaps higher on Qs this week look eerily like those from last summer, gaps that have still not been filled. ('Course the big gap down in Feb. has already been filled).

t4k

Strong opens like this almost always get sold->long SDS/MZZ intra-day only (I think we still have plenty of undecided buyers on the sidelines).

Can't remember who was asking about Nickel last week, but Dynatech has now joined Inco, Falconbridge, Lionore, Rio Narcea in the taken over nickel miners.

SKR and FNI both up about 7% as well. Not sure if I should flip to one of these. Con call is at 10:00, so have to see what they say.

Sherritt to Acquire Dynatec
- Acquisition an important step in the growth of Sherritt's Metals business - Consideration valued at $4.88 per Dynatec common share - Sherritt operating expertise optimizes world-class Ambatovy project - Significant mining development, execution and production synergies - Strong balance sheet for continued expansion and investment - Robust long-term demand for nickel will drive shareholder value

08:13 EDT Friday, April 20, 2007

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 20, 2007) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES

Sherritt International Corporation ("Sherritt") (TSX:S) and Dynatec Corporation ("Dynatec") (TSX:DY) jointly announced today a transaction whereby under a Plan of Arrangement Sherritt will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Dynatec for a total value of $1.6 billion.

Under the proposed transaction, Dynatec shareholders will receive 0.190 of a Sherritt common share and approximately 0.0635 of an FNX Mining Company Inc. ("FNX") (TSX:FNX) common share, which are currently owned by Dynatec, for each Dynatec common share held. Based on yesterday's respective TSX closing prices of $17.15 for Sherritt and $25.46 for FNX, the consideration is valued at $4.88 per Dynatec common share. The consideration represents a premium of 29% to Dynatec's closing share price on April 19, 2007, or a 39% premium based on the 20-day volume weighted average share prices for the three companies from that date.

Sherritt and Dynatec have entered into a combination agreement pursuant to which the Board of Directors of Dynatec has unanimously agreed to support the proposed transaction and recommends that Dynatec shareholders vote in favour of it. Management and Directors of Dynatec have entered into support agreements with Sherritt under which they have agreed to vote 20.2 million common voting shares, representing a 6.4% interest in Dynatec, in favour of the transaction.

Jowdat Waheed, President and CEO of Sherritt, said, "This is an important step in the growth strategy of our Metals division, enabling us to become a premier, globally-diversified lateritic nickel producer based in Canada. The Ambatovy nickel project enhances our already strong Metals operating platform, from which we will be able to meet demand in a growing market."

Bruce V. Walter, President and CEO of Dynatec, added, "This transaction provides an immediate and attractive premium to Dynatec's shareholders. It also affords them an opportunity to participate in an exciting, diversified growth company through their investment in Sherritt, and to have greater exposure to the strong nickel price environment. In addition, the combination of our companies' strengths will benefit the Ambatovy Project as it moves forward with development. Our shareholders will also continue to participate in the significant value potential of the Sudbury Basin through a direct interest in FNX."

Concurrent with this transaction, an agreement was entered into with FNX, whereby FNX has been granted a right, subject to closing of the transaction, to purchase Dynatec's Mining Services Division from Sherritt for cash at a price based upon independent assessments of value. FNX has stated its current intent to exercise this right upon closing of the transaction.

Successful completion of the transaction will strengthen Sherritt Metals' position in the global nickel market. Sherritt Metals' operating experience at its existing lateritic nickel mine and processing facility, and its ongoing Metals expansion project, will result in significant capital build-out, operating and knowledge-transfer synergies.

Ambatovy's estimated reserve life of 27 years combined with Sherritt's existing Metals operations, with reserves of approximately 25 years, positions Sherritt with leading long-life nickel assets. Long-term gross annual production from the combined company's operating mines is expected to be 109,000 tonnes of nickel and 10,600 tonnes of cobalt (net interest to Sherritt of approximately 49,000 and 4,740 tonnes of nickel and cobalt, respectively).

The transaction will be completed by way of a court-approved Plan of Arrangement, whereby each Dynatec common share will be exchanged for 0.190 of a Sherritt common share and approximately 0.0635 of an FNX common share. Sherritt will continue to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange, under the symbol "S".

The Board of Directors of Dynatec, having received the unanimous recommendation of a Special Committee of independent Directors, is recommending that holders of Dynatec common shares vote in favour of the transaction. Dynatec's financial advisors have provided an opinion to the Special Committee that the consideration to be offered to Dynatec shareholders pursuant to the Plan of Arrangement is fair, from a financial point of view, to the holders of common shares of Dynatec.

The transaction is subject to all requisite regulatory and court approvals, third-party consents and other conditions customary to transactions of this nature. The combination must be approved by at least 66 2/3 % of the votes cast by shareholders of Dynatec at a meeting of holders of common shares. The information circular for shareholders is expected to be mailed shortly. The shareholder meeting is expected to be held in early June with the transaction anticipated to close shortly thereafter.

The combination agreement between Dynatec and Sherritt provides for, among other things, a non-solicitation covenant on the part of Dynatec, subject to customary "fiduciary out" provisions that entitle Dynatec to consider and accept a superior proposal; a right in favour of Sherritt to match any superior proposal; and the payment to Sherritt of a termination payment of approximately $46 million if, among other things, the acquisition is not completed as a result of a superior proposal.

jasper - google search on site works.

Here are some of the recent changes to Bill's list.

http://www.billcara.com/archives/cara_global_100_best_companies/

2nd_ave -

Be careful with the fade you may witness early on. In your shoes, I would on the watch for tentative pushes on half hour mark (through noon) and then 2:00p. Over the past three weeks, I have noticed that, once the news of the day are digested, the machines may be turned on with a single push (and gradual follow-up for a few hours through lunchbreak). Tight trailing stops are in order IMO. Good lick.

JML

Notes from the Front.....

I thought I would share a few points that hopefully the community will find instructive. The topic relates to me and HBB. As Bill knows I havent posted in a while. I have been on the road as it were.

As Bill also knows I have a long background in the puchase of stressed and distressed securities -primarily bank debt, high yield bonds and leveraged equities. A short time ago I launched a firm with a close friend and collegue who is a recognized leader in the stressed/distressed world to capitalize on the coming correction in the credit and equities markets globally.

We launched the firm for a number of reasons - the most important of which is that we felt the timing - while early - was perfect. Our view is that the markets are showing signs of extreme froth. One can see that in the absolute collapse of credit spreads and in particular the spread of the high yield index to the the 10 year treasury. It used to be that the spread averaged 400 bpts or so, but we are so far below that historical reference point that few people ever believed it occured. Further defaults globally are running at approx 1%. But beyond these figures there are some important signposts to help guide us. First the LBO craze continues unabated with average debt multiples now exceeding 7x cash flow. Further we now see with great regularity the use of what I call funny money paper to facilitate transactions. Specifically i am pointing to the growing use of Payment in Kind or PIK and "toggle" paper which effectively enables buyout and corporate acquirors to overpay for targets. For those over 40, these are signs that the credit cycle is indeed peaking. They are signs that prudent risk management has been thrown out the window - temporarily. Today one hears the smartest people from Bay Street to Wall Street speak aboout Total/Absolute Returns when what they really should be talking about is Risk Adjusted Returns

As we have travelled throughout the world looking for backing for our nascent credit effort we have targeted a number of firms whom we thought for one reason or another would be terrific partners and provide a global platform to build the business - for if we are only partially correct in our views of the unfocing credit cycle then this will be a very large global opportunity indeed.

In the course of our meeting we met with one gigantic HBB. HBB happens to be one of the largest structurers and distributors of Collateralized Loan and Debt Obligations (CLOs and CDO's) in the world. These are very leveraged vehicles that take a pool of underlying high yield bonds or leveraged loans and leverage that pool anywhere from 5 to 20:1 and then securtize that pool into additional debt and equity strips that get sold to hedge funds and other buyers.

In sitting with such HBB recently - and may i say their tippy top dog (otherwise known as "TTD")- the following conversation occured:

TTD of HBB said: "guys like you don't grow on trees. We could do some unbelievable things together. But here's what we want you to think about. We want you to take $200 million of equity and we'll leverage that 10:1 with $2 billion of debt from us via our capital markets desk and put it in a vehicle and go buy high yield debt and leverage loans".

We said: "But we don't want to create yet another pool of leveraged CDO's buying overpriced high yield paper and leveraged loans globally with no covenants and in all likelihood priced above par, perched for downgrades. We want to build a business carefully and methodically that patiently identifies unique investments in the credit world - through an UNLEVERAGED vehicle."

TTD of HBB said: "Yeah we hear ya. That's nice but I"ll tell you what we'll do... We increase the amount to $3 billion of debt capital and with that you'll have $45 million in annual fees to build your firm."

We said: "We think it is imprudent to operate in that type of structure today. Yes the fees are enticing but if we do our job correctly over the next 10 years we should do just fine. Our objective is to build a business."

TTD of HBB said: "Wow. Are you sure you guys want to turn that down? No one has ever done that before in your position".

Perhaps TTD of HBB is right. Perhaps we are crazy to have turned that down. I bring it up as I am but only one member of this community among many all with terrific experiences and stories. I share the story real time as a example of the utter lunacy currently developing in the markets.

If Bill and others here are correct and I think you are - my partner and will have the chance to build our credit business in a prudent way that capitalizes on the folly and excess of others that listened to the Sirens Songs of TDD at HBB.

Hope some you find this helpful.

Thank you Bill for indulging me....

Good morning, Bill.

Taking a ride on SLB. Stock was up nicely in the first 30 minutes until a sell program pushed it down (maybe a little options.)

Anyone following the news of the platinum and palladium ETFs? ANO has been en fuego and PAL also having a nice day.

r.saunders...
thanks for the input....i made some notes and then just copied the cara100 into a spreadsheet, alphabetized, and then will compare to a data sheet in the program I use for ranking. Using an alpha period of 15, arrived at by optimizing, i got a heads up for gol and sndk earlier this week. (Latin America is showing more reselience, by the way, than Asia ex japan)

If it helps me find top ranked that are not too extended I'm motivated to keep the list current. Technically, I need to re optimize each time I change the list.

I emailed Bill, but I know how busy he is. Personally, I would find it helpful if he posted per month or even per quarter, a delete and add list for his Cara100.

congrats to those that bought on the dip yesterday, fooled me, I thought that I was using good prudence to wait for slw to hit its 20ema...but slv did the 20 and the 50...meanwhile, happy to have what I have and just hope that I sell wisely.

Jasper,

I know what you mean. I'm feeling way too lucky... I sold Wednesday, then sold it short, covered yesterday. Then purchased. Now I'm up way more than expected and feeling really nervous with the profits I have.

-Quentusrex

mogwa...

What etfs are there for palladium or platinum?

To my knowledge pm's in etfs only cover silver and gold. Interested in what you find. thx.

ALOHA !!

Just curious ... is anyone here using their casino profits to pay down debts? Debts like mortgages, credit cards and car loans? Or is 100% of profits just getting plowed back into the casino?

Just to touch on reality for a second ... Many here, including myself, have bet against the US Dollar or as I like to say "taken out dollar insurance". I have noticed frothy statements about seeing the US Dollar go down below .80 ... For every action there is an equal or greater reaction ... as they say. When the US Dollar does tank we Americans will get the "bill", meaning higher prices for all imports such as gas and food. This will be very destructive for those on fixed incomes such as the elderly and disabled and those living off unemployment and welfare checks. However it will also cut into those who are highly leveraged to debt. Even if your house payment does not go up all your other bills will and add to that your taxes. Those out there whose bills exceed their income will have to start selling ... selling things like stocks, gold coins, homes and extra cars and junk(think EBay). Selling to make ends meet and when ends don't meet any more they will just abandon their debt. If the economy collapses too fast you end up with lost jobs and growing unemployment lines and further dollar devaluation. And don't forget that a weak dollar will only cause Uncle Sam to ask for more taxes not less ... even if they have to print it! For the politicians of today its is all about greed first then legacy second and "We The People" last !!

Be cautious and prudent with your profits and consider the reality of a USA with a Third World currency!

By the way ... buying Euros does not mean you are safe from a US dollar crisis. It just means you have a slightly less leakier boat. Last I heard Europe is socialist and so is the money they print! China's even worse ... GDP or not!

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

I think SLB might be on a bluelight special. It's in the red, despite a good earnings report. Could be profit taking, but i think the fact that there are over 15,000 april 75 calls might have something to do with it.

Kaimu. It is not just the politicans that are greedy. We the people are also greedy and foolish. Just look at the housing problems. Foolish people with unrealistic expectations about lifestyle.Buying mansions, cars and boats to look good and keep up with the Jones'. I have no sympathy whatsoever. Next week I will be in the Sunshine state to pick up real estate and take some of these people out of their misery, Just think I will make somebody's day. The Bankers are always ready to do business when they get the scent of cash.

SLB: I noticed Cramer pumping NBR and HAL this morning on the heels of the SLB earnings report...all three now dropping.

That Cramer, sometimes he's right, sometimes he's wrong. He said something like he wouldn't be surprised if capital one was up 5 after earnings. More like down five.

Not sure about HAL or NBR but i like Slob here for a trade through next week. Course, i still think the main fireworks will come from the PMs. Just mulling whether to add to SLW and HL at today's close or wait for the usual monday takedown.

I sold into the frenzy this AM.
Traded a small QID position in and out as well.
Now I'm long MU, UXG and a little JNJ. Took profits on gaps up and now they're coming back nicely.

I didn't trust the big sales push this AM that started last night.
My recent sell signal is Maria Bartaromo. When she's spinning like a crack addict on an up market it's my signal to sell. One day she's simply going to explode and I recommend selling when it happens.

On the topic of social equity the subprime mess is now being framed as a "race issue" in my community (San Diego, California). Today our local paper pulished a graphic which color coated the entire county according to different levels of foreclosure activity. The graph showed much higher level of foreclosures in believe it or not - the poorer areas of the county which also coincidentally are inhabited by larger percentages of minorities. I also live in this minority area - have lived here my whole life. In my high school 70% of student population was minority, etc.

Anyways now the issue is being classified as one of "institutional racism." In other words the banks are alleged to have gone after these minorities to take advantage of their unfamiliarity with english language or lack of education.

Here is the article - thought that it was worth sharing whats going on in my necks of the woods:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070420-9999-1b20loans.html

Best regards,

Soulek1

Then again in my necks of the woods (San Diego, California) the dream merchants aren't stock brokers and financial planners, but instead real estate brokers and mortgage brokers where every other car is a BMW and there are always two golden rules:

1) You can always refinance and
2) Home prices never go down

-Soulek1

Jasper,

The etfs are supposed to start trading next month on the swiss exchange. Here's a story i found:

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Recent strong interest for palladium and platinum Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) has prompted analysts at UBS Investment Bank to raise their price forecasts for the two metals.

Zurich Cantonal Bank's announcement last Friday that platinum and palladium ETFs will be listed on the SWX market in Switzerland on May 10 have boosted prices of the two metals and raised speculation they could go higher still.

ETFs trade commodity futures and back up every ounce of stock bought on paper with the actual physical commodity. As a result, the launch of an ETF often squeezes the market as it eats up the amount of physical stock available.

The bank said it has 'modest ambitions for the platinum and palladium ETFs', expecting they will take only 70,000 ounces of platinum and 200,000 ounces of palladium off the market within a year.

'We suspect this is too conservative,' said UBS Investment Bank analyst John Reade. 'Hedge funds and private investors have been historically active in the platinum group metals and we would not be surprised if the...ETFs attract considerable interest from these investors.'

UBS now expects both metals will surge going forward, with platinum hitting 1,350 usd an ounce and palladium reaching 420 usd over the next three months, an upgrade from previous estimates of 1,300 usd and 380 usd respectively.

Bill these bailouts for the lenders, similar to the scam with federal subsidized student loans. the us governement "co-signs" on most student loans, so the banks offer a marginally lower rate. If a student defaults, then 1) the government makes the loan good to the banks and 2) the IRS goes after the student. Sally Mae (the student loan version of Fannie) is such a cash cow, it was taken private in a $25 Billion LBO.

I suspect that after the government get mortgage bailout in place, you will see Freddie and Fannie go private next.

In addition to your new micro-cap list (that should be loaded with juniors noting Gold will blast through $ 800 in the next 12 months as well as some very cheap plays (e.g. at Book Value where alot of fund buying taking place) in alternative energy firms with solid fundys like HW espeically noting how much of a failure the entire Ethynol scam is) how about an M/A list where Fan and Fred would be at the head of the class :) Making profits on mass serfdom now that 40 year mortgages will be the new craze!

Mark Kasriel from Pimco was just on bubblevision, he sold his house and now rents noting "he does not want to risk capital with one trillion dollar of arm resets slated for the next 24 months." When the unwinding of this credit bubble gets a head of steam, hit the deck folks!

Bill,

In today's (April 20) Gold Spot Chart subsection you wrote "Buying opportunity. This cycle will likely end like in 1979-80 with a price spike to the upside, after which I believe the price will collapse in exhaustion and will stay negative for several years." At your convenience, be it this weekend or whenever, I would appreciate if you could expand on the expression "This cycle". I could assume, but of course we know the consequences of assuming.

And BTW, I trust that your health is improving. It may be too early to be asking, but how is the herbal tea remedy going?

As per everyone else on this blog, thanks for your efforts. It is truly elucidating.

Rick45-
I'm sure you ment Mark Kiesel from Pimco.

Pardon the typo Ron thanks.

Today, I keep seeing this image from "Return of the Jedi" - BEHOLD the AWESOME POWER of the DARK SIDE - and then Luke gets zapped by the Emperor.

(hint: fellow billcara.com patrons, *we* are Luke)

I am just wondering who in this market is playing Darth Vader, about to come to his senses, toss the Emperor to his death, and bring balance to the Force? Anyone?

(think I'll go plow my cornfield now)

t4k

Soulek1--re: sub prime market

See my post yesterday on Cara Bull Board.

http://tinyurl.com/3cwc98

Posted by: Seamus at April 19, 2007 9:59 AM

Traders should be very cautious about taking short positions.

There is no possibility that the market will decline significantly until I unload all shorts. Should I sell them all, the market will drop to 8K the next day, surprising even Bill. But I do not intend to do this. Instead, I am taking correcting action very gradually, over time. Didn't Bill say once that he is not overly fond of short positions?

Yes, the shorts dilute total holdings a bit, which are similar to that of Craig's. Maybe someday they will pay off. But I will play them differently next time, if I play them at all.

npmg,

I'm pretty sure Bill's referring to the longer-term cycle that ends in 2009/10. This current run will undoubtedly end in another downward spike, but since we're all looking for it this time (eg, yesterday), it may take longer to materialize. Would almost bet it happens within a day or two of the next Hulbert update on the gold-timing newsletters pointing out an increase in exposure. His laid-back contrarian perspective on market swings works more often than not.

The clarification I'm looking for is whether/why Bill still feels that there will be a severe correction within the next couple of months that may take a year or more to work off...the dip-buying has worked several times, and I'm going to have a hard time believing the next one turns around as quickly...the next big move I'm looking for (as I'm sure everyone else here is) is down, and not just for the broader market.

Does anyone have a symbol for a short gold fund (as opposed to shorting the GDX)?

Kaimu,

G'man Japan's position today seems to be 2265 short contracts (for Feb 2008). Is this different from the last time?

G'Man Japan Co., Ltd. 2,442 1,252 1,190 0 0 5 0 0 0 20 26 0 151 333 2,265 894

I think it's 4AM over there, not sure what your status is :-) Thanks.

Right now the only currency supporting the dollar is the yen. That to me is the key.

If the BOJ tightens that could break the dollar index below 80. That's the key when the market will no longer go up IMO, because I think the Fed will then have to tighten. When? Don't know--we'll just have to keep our ears to the ground.

Have a good weekend everyone. Looks like nice weather for a change. It was a heck of a week!

Hmm: Just read a really interesting thought about the February market takedown by Cliff Droke. He mentions that this was an orchestrated plan by HB&B. Nothing like adding a quick 5-10% to your bottom line I guess and even more in the Asian Markets.

Thought, opinions?

For whoever cherishes market trivia and historical precedents, I dug up the longest Dow Industrials streaks with one day down (since Oct. 1928) using Yahoo! Finance data (assuming they are accurate). I also put the next 12-month high/low in parentheses:

Jun. 11-Jul. 08, 1929 (18/19): 303.27-346.55 = +14.27% (high: 381.17 on Sep. 03, 1929: +9.99%; low: 198.69 on Nov. 13, 1929: -42.67%)

Nov. 19-Dec. 11, 1970 (15/16): 754.24-825.92 = +9.50% (high: 950.82 on Apr. 28, 1971: +15.12%; low: 797.97 on Nov. 23, 1971: -3.38%)

Dec. 11, 1991-Jan. 03, 1992 (15/16): 2,863.82-3,201.48 = +11.79% (high: 3,413.21 on Jun. 01, 1992: +6.61%; low: 3,136.58 on Oct. 09, 1992: -2.03%)

Mar. 29-Apr. 20, 2007 Ongoing (15/16): 12,300.36-12,961.98 = +5.38%

Jun. 15-Jul. 06, 1955 (14/15): 438.20-467.41 = +6.67% (high: 521.05 on Apr. 06, 1956: +11.48%; low: 438.59 on Oct. 11, 1955: -6.17%)

Jun. 17-Jul. 08, 1959 (14/15): 621.40-663.81 = +6.82% (high: 685.47 on Jan. 05, 1960: +3.26%; low: 599.10 on Mar. 08, 1960: -9.75%)

Nov. 17-Dec. 08, 1959 (14/15): 634.46-675.39 = +6.45% (high: 685.47 on Jan. 05, 1960: +1.49%; low: 566.05 on Oct. 25, 1960: -16.19%)

Nov. 16-Dec. 07, 1970 (14/15): 759.79-818.66 = +7.75% (high: 950.82 on Apr. 28, 1971: +16.14%; low: 797.97 on Nov. 23, 1971: -2.53%)

Jan. 02-Jan. 22, 1987 (14/15): 1,895.95-2,145.67 = +13.17% (high: 2,722.42 on Aug. 25, 1987: +26.88%; low: 1,738.74 on Oct. 19, 1987: -18.97%)

Jun. 10-Jun. 29, 1954 (13/14): 319.27-336.90 = +5.52% (high: 449.86 on Jun. 27, 1955: +33.53%; low: 333.53 on Jun. 30, 1954: -1.00%)

Sep. 13-Oct. 07, 1968 (13/14): 915.65-956.68 = +4.48% (high: 985.21 on Dec. 03, 1968: +2.98%; low: 801.96 on Jul. 29, 1969: -16.17%)

Dec. 31, 1986-Jan. 20, 1987 (13/14): 1,908.61-2,104.47 = +10.26% (high: 2,722.42 on Aug. 25, 1987: +29.36%; low: 1,738.74 on Oct. 19, 1987: -17.38%)

Jun. 03-Jun. 22, 1987 (13/14): 2,278.22-2,445.51 = +7.34% (high: 2,722.42 on Aug. 25, 1987: +11.32%; low: 1,738.74 on Oct. 19, 1987: -28.90%)

With a peaceful weekend and a positive merger Monday, this impressive momentum could kill two birds with one stone: Dow 13K and sole possession of second place.

Shorting a market buidling a head of steam is a textbook no-no; be nimble my data analysis is telling me less than 55 days before an event (e.g. BOJ hikes). Going long the Yen perhaps not such a bad idea.

Interesting trend change markets closing the week at a high anticipating M/A Monday as the pumpers would say as opposed to selling-off Friday P.M. to take profits/preserve Capital. Noting that J6P clearly missed this rally, HBB will hype DOW 13K and new S/P high above the fold in one last attempt to bring-in stupid money off the sidelines once all shorts have been exhausted-then the bulls will be slaughtered perhaps on a Bank failure headline, etc...

Bill per our discussion about HW recently, FYI John Hussman owns 300,000+ shares :) Value longs are few and far between in this market.

Most of us have seen a moment like this before, some of us many times.

The only question left to be answered is when will 'they' yell "fire."

Lovely term, 'they.' Not so lovely experience, being 'all-in' during the fire.

Here's a thought for a top. IB is going Public
with an IPO priced somewhere 23-25. I'm not a financial Analyst but this company 's gotta scare .... out of the etrades, ameritrades sshwab and what noughts.... maybe gobbled right up to shut it up, wait till harvey at the golf course sees the comissions he been paying at chuck compared to IB

If this skys and I think it will, maybe you got your top. One of those google type auctions, no money for Lehmans. 42$ on the 1st??

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/IBIPO/

Bill or Anyone:

If IBKR is priced around 23-25, and it starts shooting up on the day of the IPO, what would be a good entry point.

Probably no one but it may be an indicator on how overheated these market are. Now if you bought ahead of time I don't believed you'd be locked in like an officer so I think you could sell it the first day it trades on open Market.