"
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- HSBC Holdings, the world's third-largest bank and one of the most aggressive players in the U.S. market for low-quality mortgages, has sent a chill through the financial world with news that its bad-debt charges will be 20% higher than forecast."

This will be a familiar scenario. Remember the home builders? They posted bad news, took some write offs and then thought that all was right with the world. Then the next quarter they whammied their earnings and forecasts again because the problem was worse than they thought.

Just food for thought for any "the worst is over" crowd. I think it has only begun. Hey, perhaps "Remember the homebuilders" will be our "Remember the Alamo" cry.

:-)

heebner-the manager of the top-performing real-estate fund over the past decade / bloomber video!

very interesting. also with comments on the carry trade, derivatives, hedge funds, etc.

dow "inflation adjusted" / chart

reverse mortgages / economist

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

have a nice weekend

Bill,

I posted this yesterday but it was late in the day and many of your readers may not have picked up on this. I don't want to flood teh readership with this information but wanted to get it front and center early in the day so many can research this on their own so I will repost some data.

A major lawsuit was filed this week against many of the big players on Wall Street. It did not make the press but the facts in the case are disturbing. Most disturbing of all is that the facts were provided by the Securities and Exchange Commission under court order (50,000 pages) after the SEC closed the case without finding cause for action. Documents that include sworn testimony taken by the SEC regarding bribery and money laundering by Wall Street for members of organized crime

The lawsuit can be downloaded here (51 Pages):

http://www.mediafire.com/?0cvmzctjmyz

More about this global issue icluding a story of how teh SEC should be listed as a defendant in this lawsuit can also be found at:

www.investigatethesec.com

For a taste of the information in this lawsuit here is some of the sworn testimony included in the case:

In testimony taken by the SEC and provided to Young, the SEC questioned witness John Serubo of Bryn Mawr Investments about the mob related stock manipulation scheme against Eagletech.

Q: So Dorocki as an Executive Vice President at Salomon Smith Barney had no problem whatsoever dealing with mob people in his business.

A: No. He had no problem with dealing with - I only can tell you from my perspective he had no problem dealing with our firm or our deal.

Q: Okay, when Dorocki asked you to hold the stock price up, is that a form of market manipulation?

A: Absolutely.

Q: And your guy at Bank of New York knew that as far as volume goes that Bryn Mawr Investment Group was the holder of a significant number of shares and the remaining shares were restricted at Eagletech? Is that true?

A: Yes, not only did they know that. They also - when we told them sit on the bid at $12.00, a market maker is supposed to go into the market and if the next bidder was at eleven fifty he really should be, you know, a little above that instead of $12.00. But, you know, we told them $12.00. So, you know, they were - they were manipulating the stock as much as we were.

Q: When you were holding up the stock at 12, ten, and eight, who did those trades clear through?

A: Bank of New York. Their market maker actually sat on - you know, who ever they sold it to, Knight or whatever, sat on the bid for us on my end.

Dobricki was never charged by the SEC despite the evidence of market manipulation and money laundering. These are the characters the SEC has been protecting. The characters who are raiding our financial security.

PPI came in at 1%, a bit higher than estimates. But the spin will be that the core was flat.

Typically, MarketWatch accentuates the positive with its current headline "Calm core producer prices".

Looks to me like the USD is weaker now and gold and silver are going up.

"With foreign finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Washington today I understand, this is a time to be especially vigilant."

Bill, you don't think the gnomes are superstitious?

The next major LTCM? Pay close attention on this one as the SEC increases their vigilance (finally) on inside information trading.

SEC Aide Sees Insider Trading Risk In Credit-Default Swaps

By Siobhan Hughes
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NASHVILLE (Dow Jones)--The Securities and Exchange Commission is raising the possibility that an increasingly popular type of financial instrument may be used to engage in insider trading - but there may be questions about the SEC's jurisdiction over the products.

Credit-default swaps function as insurance policies protecting the holder against a corporate default. The products are popular among banks, hedge funds, and other big investors, and are considered by regulators to be the fastest-growing part of the over-the-counter derivatives market.

"From our point of view, there are certain anti-manipulation and insider-trading issues that are implicated by these instruments," Erik Sirri, the director of the SEC's division of market regulation, said on Thursday at a conference hosted by Vanderbilt University's Financial Markets Research Center. "You don't have to be very imaginative to think about the issues that are brought up by a credit default swap and what an insider could do with that information."

An email I get said that the entertainer Cramer was bearish on US Gold yesterday.....
PS
He was bearish on Valero around 51 in late January....its 68.66 yesterday...
Go Cramer

a good article on the use of Moly:

http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/31994

Bill and others remarking on todays "unlucky date",

Regarding origin of superstitions about Friday 13 in the 14th century, there do seem to be some interesting historical patterns echoing in the world today [excerpts from http://tinyurl.com/2xahcb ]:

"The official name of the Knights Templars (Templiers) was the "Order of the Poor Knights of Christ", formed in Jerusalem in 1118 to protect the pilgrims visiting Palestine at the end of the First Crusade of 1096. The full, original name was "The Poor Knights of Christ and the Temple which is in Jerusalem", making it understandable why a short title became popular."

"Knights Templars as Warriors:

The Templars gained a reputation as great warriors in battles defending the Holy Land. But Jerusalem fell to the Muslims in 1187, and the Templars retreated, first to Antioch, then to Acre (the port city of Akko). The Knights Templars were based in Acre for a century: in 1291, Acre fell to the Muslims, with Grand Master William de Beaujue dying in the battle. The surviving Templars were the last to leave, departing to Caesarea, and then to Cyprus. In Cyprus, the Templars were based at Limmasol, but their headquarters were established in the Temple Monastery in Paris."

"Knights Templars as Bankers:

Members joining the Knights Templars took oaths of poverty, and donated all their cash, valuables and property to the Order. Between these extensive "gifts", treasures from battles, and the the massive grants from the Pope, the Templars amassed a true fortune.

The Templars quite naturally developed an extensive banking system as a result of transporting money and treasures between Palestine and Europe, and from lending money to Spanish pilgrims travelling to the Holy Land."

"The Templars' Downfall:

The enormous wealth and power of the Knights Templars aroused both greed and envy. With their huge reserves of cash and their banking system, France's King Philip the Fair had gone to the Templars for loans to finance his wars. [There are] different accounts, some where the Templars refused Philip IV's request for money, and some where the King wanted to avoid repaying the loans he already had from them.

The First Friday the 13th:

On Friday the 13th in the year 1307, the month of October, all of the Templars in France were rounded up and imprisoned - 'Friday the 13th' has been an unlucky day since that event."

-----

So, perhaps Western HB&B "warrior-bankers" who have amassed great fortunes from overseas military adventures in the Middle East should be especially careful today. For instance, I hear that European Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has made some controversial proposals regarding sale of gold from the IMF. [ See http://tinyurl.com/2tvtur ]

johojo

anyone else think we are actually entering a new bull phase here..as in more money needs to be pulled in from the sidelines before the buying stops? if i stand back and monitor my own take here, i guess the contra-contrarian play would be to go long until the djia pulls back from a new high

Bill,

Re your comments on Don Imus. American culture is so deeply steeped in obscenity and injustice that just when you think the right thing seems to have been done the pendulum swings. We shouldn't be suprised if we see Don Imus re-surface on satellite radio, Howard Stern-like compensation package and all.

Thinking of getting into NEM here. I know bill mentioned in the past about the execessive hedging compared to other miners.
The stock hasn't moved compared to GLD in the past 1 year. Based on their reserves and POG it looks attrative.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NEM&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=GLD
Any thoughts?

2nd: "anyone else think we are actually entering a new bull phase here"

Volatility approaching critical support if this market is NOT going higher - look at weekly charts of VIX and VXN. You could argue that volatility has been pretty well spent back from the Feb/Mar spike, BUT both are approaching 20 week SMAs, and if they do not hold, the bottom of the BBands is *way* *way* down there.

VIX 20 Week SMA = 12.25, bottom of BBand = 7.6 (really)
VXN 20 Week SMA = 17.33, bottom of BBand = 13.59

Like I said yesterday, look out above! (Still holding that QID nibble)

MarkM, what can you see in your knock-off crystal ball? Do they sell them on eBay??

t4k

PS: 2" fresh snow and dumping like crazy here at 7500 feet this morning.

BMD-adding further here. For these small-caps, if you're patient, you can actually build a position that approximates what might be awarded to employees.

t4k-

Clear and sunny here. That's when Bill's works best. Sorry! :)

What I DO know is that the bad data points keep POURING in and we are STILL at Dow 12500. This is the Rocky Balboa market.

funny, have a laufgh . . it's TGIF (DIG)

"Beijing's war of words heats up as Olympics get closer"

A campaign to correct the notoriously goofy English translations on city signs in time for next year's Olympics could mean the end for the misnomers that have confused and amused visitors for years.

Officials are taking aim at menu items such as "Fried Crap" and "Acid Food", and slippery-when-wet signs that read, "To take notice of safe: The slippery are very crafty".

The campaign began last year to avoid causing confusion and possible offence when visitors from around the world descend on a city that has for years featured a "Racist Park" dedicated to ethnic minorities.

But to some, the "pubic toilets" and "harsh browns" will be missed.

"It's too bad. They give the city a little more character," said Ian McCulloch, a Briton who studies Chinese at a local university.

"It's almost worth a walk down the street just for that."

Officials have launched several parallel campaigns -- some aim to discourage spitting and queue-jumping while others encourage smiling and other civilities -- in a bid to soften a city that has its share of rough edges.

But authorities have pushed the language effort as much as any other, sending out camera-wielding inspectors to comb the streets in search of offenders like "Deformed Men" on handicapped restroom stalls, and "liquor heads" seen on signs banning public drinking.

Translation guidelines also have been issued to local governments and industry groups, who have been urged to clean up the English in their spheres.

A city official said Wednesday that 6,530 road signs had been changed or replaced by the end of 2006.

Another 1,076 signs at tourist sites have been edited, over 20,000 have been inspected in medical facilities and still more offending wordage is being given the once-over at public restrooms, restaurants and other facilities.

"We are targeting public places that are closely related to the life, work, study and travel of our foreign friends," said Liu Yang, deputy director of Beijing's foreign affairs office.

The push has already claimed a high-profile victim.

For years, the flaming-red neon sign of the Dongda Hospital for Anus and Intestine Disease loomed high over a busy street in eastern Beijing. But it recently gave way to "Dongda Proctology Hospital".

Liu said more needs to be done in a city where menus still offer such delicacies as "Big Bowl Fresh Immerse Miscellaneous Germ" and construction sites warn "Beware of Safety".

But getting hotels, restaurants and private businesses to comply with the non-binding guidelines could prove more difficult than altering state-owned road signs.

"So far I think we have achieved good progress in standardising English translations of signs. But we need cooperation from all sectors to avoid lax enforcement and future confusion," Liu said.

One possible bone of contention will be plans by the city to soon launch a push to tighten up menus at hotels and restaurants.

Liu said the city wants many of the Chinese dishes that carry ambiguous names like Seven Happiness, a mix of seafood, meats and vegetables, to be translated more informatively, an idea that provoked a backlash in the blogosphere when first floated earlier this year.

"Menus should introduce to a guest what kind of meat or vegetables are in the dish and should be brief and clear," Liu said.

"I know that some of the translations now are really problematic and not so polite."

Visitors to the Olympics may no longer, then, enjoy the delights of "flesh fruit".

sorry for the sp, "laugh"

This is the FIRST time I am finally seeing what I expected for many months (thanks to Bill & this board). All my inverse ETFs are going up, my gold & silver miner call options are way up, and my SPY and QQQQ puts are going up. Hope this continues...MarkM what does your crystal ball say?

online-

For right now I'll stand on my Thursday midmorning comment that after Wednesday's little dip and Thursday's morning "re-balancing" that things should be choppy. What puzzles me is the relentless index buying that happened afterwards. I can't believe that that was traders getting long before PPI. Doesn't make any sense.

GE says sub-prime problems are spread out...

http://tinyurl.com/267joq

Choppy is right. I'm just looking at trees from ground level and can't make much sense of the overall market.

Is anyone following uranium stocks like URZ or CDY? They've pulled back a bit in the past few days.

Took some profit in my HB shorts today. We'll see if acting ahead of option expiration week is right this month.

I also noted that some lenders are weak despite the choppiness. Like NDE. Earnings are due out on April 26th.

Leisa, I see MTG is recovering a bit today. Any good reason for that?

Leisa,

Do you follow on MTG ? If so, what do you think ? The stock went up on Thurs after the company issued ER warnings and today is up again.

Turmoil at the World Bank - Paul Wolfowitz - another «Bush man« - under intense pressure to step down

-------> Taken from the FT:
Paul Wolfowitz’s future as president of the World Bank was in jeopardy on Friday after the bank’s board issued a damaging finding of facts on his role in the Shaha Riza affair and pledged to ”move expeditiously to reach a conclusion on possible actions to take.”

The board said that its ”consideration of the matter” would ”focus on all the relevant governance implications for the Bank”.

The promise of further action will intensify pressure on Mr Wolfowitz to step down of his own accord, ahead of possible censure by the board.

As of Friday morning, though, there was no indication that Mr Wolfowitz – who issued a public apology Thursday morning – was ready to give up the fight.

Much will now depend on the position of the US, which is more nuanced than yesterday’s reaffirmation by the White House of confidence in Mr Wolfowitz suggests.

The decision came after a marathon emergency session of the 24-member board, made up of representatives of the Bank’s shareholder governments, which began around midday on Thursday and ran late into the night.

Overnight reports suggest European nations took the lead in driving for a tough board statement, overcoming reluctance from some other states. However, there was no consensus to call for Mr Wolfowitz’s resignation.

The controversy relates to Mr Wolfowitz’s personal involvement in securing a promotion and a pay rise far in excess of the normal maximum associated with such a promotion for Ms Riza, a bank official with whom he was romantically involved, as part of a secondment package.

The board statement – hammered out after tough negotiation between board members – states that Mr Wolfowitz ”sent the vice-president, human resources, a written memorandum directing him to reach agreement with the staff member and specifying in detail the terms and conditions.”

The existence of this memorandum, dated August 11 2005, was first revealed by the Financial Times.

The statement further notes that the then ethics committee ”had not been involved in the discussions with the concerned staff member. Neither did it find that the terms and conditions of the agreement had been commented on, reviewed or approved by the ethics committee, its chairman or the board.”

number2son, markm -

I guess this mornings PPI was seen as positive, however the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index for April came in at 85.3, from 88.4 in March. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the mid-month index to come in at 88.0. This then soured the market, but as I write this, the market is plowing higher! Add "flip-flop" to "choppy".

Anyone have an opinion concerning Sallie Mae:

"Shares of SLM Corp., better known as Sallie Mae, rose 12% to $45.55 following a report in the New York Times saying that private-equity groups are in talks to buy America's largest lender to college students in a deal that could be valued at more than $20 billion."

Take a look at the hourly price of gold for the last 3 days:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Right on schedule, down it is.

There is a somewhat odd buying action on US Gold, triggered my (happy) exits.

Thanks Bill for your comment of RICHMONT MINES INC (RIC) back in early Jan 07. It's really paying off today ( up more than 14% right now) and up over 48% since Jan 9th when got in.

Re Wolfowitz: Shaha Riza has been his girlfriend for some time. Right after 9/11, he had her hired as a well paid contract translator for the government.

Bill's correct about the markets changing as he opined about a month ago. You have to stay on top of the screens. I'm hesitating on working out today until the markets close. Heck, I bet NYUgrad has lunch delivered!

onlineaces, number2son, markm,

I am also impressed by the resilience of this market. No amount of negative news has a lasting effect. Maybe, big traders truly believe that a put (whether Bernanke, Private Equity, etc.) provides sufficient real downside protection. Also, how convenient would it be to finally close the Feb. 27 on a weekly basis and clean up to the charts so that the incident can be filed under "bump in the road". Despite a strong fundamental case for the bears, they seem on the brink of giving up fighting liquidity and exhibit (relatively) far more risk-aversion than the bulls. If S&P 1,450 is retaken today, we might set up for an interesting pop on Monday (with some deals and no international implosion) ahead of a busy earnings report slate.

JML

Kaimu,

wow, sounds like you have it pretty great in Hawaii. My relatives have a timeshare in Hawaii and are actually from Orange County also. They were in Dove Canyon, then Laguna Hills, now in Aliso Viejo. I wonder if you know them.

Last week I asked you about GPXM and CNU. You told me that your favorite moly play is Molycor and that you compare it to Adanac Moly which is trading over $2 right now. Well, I compared the two on a relative percentage gain/loss basis :

http://tinyurl.com/ysvhy6

and even though AUA is over $2 and MOR is at $.29, MOR has actually slightly outperformed the former.
Seeing as they are both part of the LR incubator, does the price of either (aside from fundamentals) really matter? i.e. if they both had the same fundamentals, would they not both go up accordingly, regardless of the lower per unit price of MOR? I see that all of AUA's properties are in North America also.

Thanks, hope it made sense.

and whoever gave that tinyurl reccomendation, thank you! Leisa?

marginnayan

Yep, I follow MTG. I closed out a put position PRIOR to earnings for a gain of about 30%. I noted that MTG had VERY strong support at the $56 level (my modest attempt to use TA). The stock held remarkably well (though it went to $53 after hours which I don't count). It is up to $58.

Admittedly I was surprised, but anticipated the reaction by selling my puts. (Trust me, this was a breakthrough for MY psychology!). AND I resolved to not cry if that stock when all the way down to $50 without my being in those puts! Better to sell early (though these were Fall $60 puts!). The thought (not mine!) is that the weakness only affects this quarter, and I guess the stock had it priced in. I'd be surprised if there is not more to come, but for now, it is what it is.

Well done, Leisa.

Kaimu,

If by any chance you have had a look at Emgold (emr.v) I'd appreciate any comments. They just announced another 240 new exploration targets on their mine in California. Can these old mines be a gold mine? :-)

"With the identification of 512 exploration targets, the Idaho-Maryland
Mine has the potential to be one of the largest high-grade underground gold
exploration targets in North America. The new exploration targets are being
identified as a result of continued work on a computerized assay model using
historical data. "

Thanks.

Just my 2 cents.

The following general information about the way things work with investigative agencies may help when reviewing the lawsuit cited by Patchie.

The SEC is a regulatory agency. When they come across federal crimes, they report the fact to the U.S. Attorney’s (USA) Office. The USA will bring in experienced federal law enforcement—Postal Inspectors, FBI and/or IRS. They will conduct an investigation and receive technical help from the SEC when needed. The USA indicts individuals, arrests are made, plea bargains arranged, trials undertaken and convictions (in most cases) obtained. Defendants may file appeals.

The SEC may seek civil action in the same case vs. defendants; however, it’s common for the criminal prosecuting Assistant U.S. Attorney (AUSA) to have the civil actions by the SEC placed on hold until conclusion of the criminal case. This has to do with civil discovery actions which could impede the criminal prosecution. Also, cooperating witnesses and institutions are sometimes not charged in criminal and/or civil actions based on plea bargain discussions and the judgment of the U.S. Attorney’s office. Like any criminal case, sometimes an AUSA will not prosecute a cooperating witness whose testimony is necessary. Sometimes these individuals are unsavory characters.

All of that said, the role of HB&B is abhorrent in the cited case. I firmly believe the SEC can improve its regulatory enforcement and needs new leadership.

Back to the markets.

UXG on fire. That's one hell of a jockey!

ALOHA !!

Eric ... As you know Adanac Moly is closer to production so it is a safer bet, but I still prefer MolyCor for the grades and the upside potential.

At any rate here is a link to an article on "molybdenum" that addresses uses in the nuclear power industry.

Link: http://www.stockinterview.com:80/News/04102007/Molybdenum-Vital-To-Nuclear-Industry.html

As it seems the warehouse inventories of nickel remain excessively low and as the spot price rises manufacturers are looking to moly as a partial substitute.

Also Continuum(CNU.V/CUUEF.PK)is moving on some good assays from a news release yesterday, lots of high grade AU and AG ... up almost 11% today so far.

Aussieontop ... Mate, I loaded up on Geologix yesterday at $1.65USD ... Could not wait any longer as I recall the Aurelian days at $2.39USD it got very slippery and just did not want to dip at all!
Geologix is trading above its 52 week high up over 20% today. Its had an incredible run since last week!

TA ...

Gold is within striking of $690USD, as Bill pointed out! The US Dollar sure has come back from the dead today. Whats with the Indian Ruppe, its way up against all other currencies?

kaimu - all that hawaii talk made me go buy some seared tund for lunch today...couple of strums on my uke and it brings me right back to my honeymoon.

anyway, what's your take (or anyone else) on Moly short term? there seems to be alot of runup and hype in these companies, plus the sprott ipo fund coming up. i want in to a few companies, just finding it hard to take the plunge. thanks for any advice, and nice flowers btw. i'll keep it in mind for mothers day.

I'm a long time reader, never post.

Found these items on Naked Short Selling. FASCINATING!

http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/%2Bthe%2Bnaked%2Bshort%2Bsale/1

http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

bill - didn't you say something recently about the ten year reaching 4.75 being an important point? i tried to search for it but can't find it. if not, sorry.

ola: "All my inverse ETFs are going up" ...

how 'bout now?

Many of the inverse ETFs can be shorted too ;-). In a margin account, you keep your cash (at 5%) or other assets (at whatever), short QID (or SDS) when VXN (or VIX) drops and Qs (or SPX) take off ... as it appears is about to happen again for the umpteenth time.

Or, maybe we're at the top this time ...
(I closed yesterday's nibble just the same)

http://www.elite.net/~gurpal/movie/gonnafly.mid
[for MarkM]

LL&P everyone,

t4k

Just came across a very interesting site that merits the attention of the readers of this blog.

It is http://theswoop.net/ln_english/aboutus.php

Extracted from its 'About Us' page, I view the following as its mission statement.

"Swoop is a multi-lingual source of intelligence about US international policy: political, military, financial and commercial. Swoop adopts a unique approach: it is designed for global readers who need an accurate, objective and independent understanding of American intentions. Swoop puts their needs first.

Swoop cuts straight to the bottom line. It eliminates the background cacophony and identifies the essential dynamics of American foreign policy. In this way, Swoop provides its readers with the confidence they need to reach reliable judgments on the trajectory of American actions and how these may affect their interests. "

Since the ducks are quacking so loud, I went out and fed them some NEM, UXG, & CEF. When they get sick I will try to pick them up and nurse them back to health.

Re UXG-there was a post several months ago by a reader who got hit hard when it went down. At this point, you should be above water-and recommend you continue to hold longer than you would otherwise..you deserve the treat..

"UXG on fire."

Ow! Ow! Ow!

Kaimu. Thanks for the Moly Report. I know Larry Reaugh is involved in Adanac and Molycor. The information on Adanac is well documented and it appears they will be in production late 2007 early 2008. However, it is difficult to get a handle on Molycor. Not too sure if they are just exploring or have any intentions of becoming a full fledge producer. Any thoughts.

Thanks
Horatio

Telestar, LOL. I heard 'em quacking too and fed them SA and UXG. There's got to be some resistance at spot $690, although if Tuesday's CPI comes in above estimates we may go deaf for the quacking!

eBay crossed some hugely major resistance at 34 today.

Fundamentally I expect that as the US Economy declines more and more people will be trying to sell their stuff to each other.

Mike
NYC

Seamus,

The concerns I have in this matter has more to do with those market professionals that the SEC let loose. It appeared that the SEC looked to the left and saw organized crime and to the right and saw Wall Street. Both left and right were working together.

But what the SEC did was take action against those to the left while leaving those to the right to not only get away with the crime but to hang around to do it again creating even more victims. The fact that the SEC never took action against Dobricky is reprehensible. Do you think this was his only indescretion or that he stopped afterwards?

The SEC has the power to ban these individuals from these markets and to refer them to federal prosecutors. Instead the SEC closed up the case box and walked away content with enforcement actions on those to the left. They then kicked a crippled Eagletech on the way out of the room (revoke registration) denying investors a right to a return on their manipulated investment.

Such irresponsibility will only manifest over the generations to come to the point our markets are nothing short of a cesspool of corruption. Without change, change driven by energies and commitment of the investing public, our future generations of investor class people will be doomed.

t4k -

Nope. Not anymore! Inverses are now RED for me. It was just a fleeting moment in this crazy market...

Ducks, huh? We've got Penguins here in Ottawa at the moment. I just fed them a little SLW hoping it might cause an outbreak of stomach flu amongst them. I've still got some PM plays but SLW's looking a little oversold here and I've held it long enough that I've been through one cycle of not taking gains when I could (should!) have. I'll take my gains and be happy and look to re-enter later.

I'm a little concerned that the $USD could strengthen here. If it manages to hold the December lows around $82.35, metals and energy could be in for a quick reversal, at least in the short term. For that reason, I'm also concerned the $TSX is rather vulnerable--thinking about a small position in HXD.TO as a hedge in my tax sheltered account.

KRY at 4.36!! at 1:17 CST.

Thanks for the alert..you almost have to be trading limit prices on KRY or have a fast alert system to trade (as opposed to invest in) the stock. Or be a market mover like NYUGrad.

Telestar, omphalos, and doug11 - What time period are you trading on with your junior miner sales?

Hands are off the steering wheel now folks. I see total loss of control on my screens. We have non-economic buying going on. Good luck trading this.

Rusticuf, I look at daily and weekly most, but review monthly at times. With respect to positions, I try to buy weakness and sell strength using daily and 36 minute charts for entry/exit. Also, try to trade only in the direction of the main trend. It’s an art more than science IMHO.

I generally have a holding period of 1-9 days and repeat. The only exception to this is Gold which I have a long term core until conditions of USA change.

This I do for all analysis not just junior miners. One other thought is I trade in retirement accounts only so short term capital gains are a non-issue.

There are a myriad of approaches to the market, but you have to find the approach that best suits your personality and temperament.

Good Luck

See?! Invest in stocks, because the market goes up and makes everyone rich. Just buy buy buy.

bye bye

t4k

PS: what will Powershares do when all the indices go up another 50% and all the inverse funds go to zero?

Kinda fun to compute the crossover points, e.g. if QQQQ goes up another 5% or so to 46.90 it will cross over the price of QID. Haven't done the others, but something to ponder...

Well, we are back to orbit on a lazy Friday afternoon. Kudos to MRK for the starting the final push & CSCO for closing the deal. Let's hope the weekend will not spoil this amazing effort of walking the market up without volume and against so unfavorable winds. A bit of good news and all residual worries will evaporate.

JML

Link to a Bay Area subprime story: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2007/04/13/carollloyd.DTL

Two couples in Watsonville (one husband and wife=strawberry pickers making 300/wk each, one husband and wife=mushroom farmers making 500/wk each when there is work) buy a new house putting zero- own with a price tag of $720,000 financed by New Century. They are assured the initial payment of 5378/month can be refinanced down to an "affordable" 3000/month.

If these were the kinds of loans New Century was into, no surprise.

Jeez, with real volume, we'll be in a lunar orbit! ("TO THE MOON ALICE!")

Let the happy hour begin! I've got my San Pellegrino, so cheers everyone!

t4k

Oh, and if the market *does* happen to go down, like it sorta did in February, you should *always* buy more, 'cause the market comes back, and makes everyone rich.

t4k

(last post today, I promise)

Thanks Telestar - I have a longer time horizon obviously, but I was looking to swap out of some of my core gold positions and into others that have become more attractive.

I was keying off of the RSI(7) for an exit and for an eventual re-entry. This afternoon saw a break of RSI(7)>70 which I sold one of my seniors on - most likely to move into KGC as mentioned above my Bill. I of course will be re-entering on the first sign of weakness. FWIW - I'll be keying off these short term technical factors (with which I'm not that experienced) and the commentary of you short term traders.

Thanks again to Bill and all the regular posters who contribute to this site. I try to keep my posts to a minimum, but I'm sure I speak for many when I say we all notice when one of you goes missing for several days at a time.

While I'm at it - I haven't noticed any update recently on Bill's future subscription site and Bahamas venture.

The majority of my trading is within a 10-20 day cycle, though like Telestar I have core holdings I cycle through at a longer time frame -- months, some even years. If the trend is intact, I'll buy more -- then sell the original lot to lock down the profits. That order is important as it keeps me from chasing prices.

Occasionally I exit completely on all time frames, and today was one of those days. I expect some resistance at spot $690 and want to see how the trend establishes itself before I take anything more than a very short-term position.

During a period of particular frenzy like today (quack quack) I'll scalp in an hourly frame or even go short if I see excessive buying. (SLW in this case) That's risky, to say the least.