I’ll be surprised if the recovery in the charts of the broad market indexes amounts to much more than a move back to the 50-day Moving Averages. If so, this Starship Enterprise may be about to enter Delta Quadrant.

If you intend to move forward, I suggest you brush up on that old manual from 2000-2002: “Safe Conduct in Bear Country: Some Guidelines”. Although most Talking Heads may have you believe the market is simply transitioning from Goldilocks to Teddy Bear (ie, a 5 to 6 pct correction), the next one just might be the big one – a Grizzly (ie, a 25 pct plunge).

While there is very little evidence to suggest it, my thinking is that the next two years will be a gradual process of lower highs and lower lows similar perhaps to 1973-74. At its worst point, I expect to see the Dow 30 index at a level below 10,000.

During the Bear phase, I think we are going to see counter-cycles at work. I believe the commodity-price beneficiary sectors have one more Bull cycle left, but that the economy-sensitive consumer, technology and industrial sectors will be hard hit first.

Usually, in a typical sector rotation, it would be the interest-sensitive regulated utilities, commercial banks and insurance industry sectors that would be taken down first; but with globalization and Internet and all there is not likely to be an extreme inflation cycle that requires super high interest rates and tight monetary policy to kill it. So I cannot see a reason why this sector should be any worse off than the economic-sensitive sectors.

There is also a very real danger that a slowing economy might become a recession, and one that is severe. But the odds of a bad recession bordering on depression, which the alarmists are likely to talk and write about, are rather low in my view because I don’t see an inventory cycle problem like in the days before globalization and the Internet.

Actually, I just think the economy of North America and Europe will muddle through the next couple years at maybe a +1.5 pct average growth rate, which will be enough to cause rising unemployment, and negative spending/consumption issues.

The next couple years will be referred to as Stagflation times, I think. If that scenario turns out to be true, I don’t think we’ll see very high Total Annual Returns from either stock or bond positions – maybe 5 to 10 pct, if prudent decisions keep portfolios out of trouble.

The next two years, I hate to say, will not be kind to trend and cycle traders like me. I believe it will be a time for the stock pickers who focus on corporate fundamentals.

Growth or Value, Large Cap or Small, it will not matter. Quality of company based on financial strength, proven management, sound business model, and risk avoidance in strategic decisions, will be what financial analysts will be seeking.

With the problems that I foresee for the owners and managers of capital, the two companies I am most comfortable with are General Electric (GE) and Citigroup (C). In addition, because of the healthy prospects for oil drilling and pipelines, I like Tenaris (TS). If Dell (DELL) came out with a small computer that optimized the user experience with the Internet, that would be another pick.

These companies (except for Tenaris) have made strategic restructuring decisions that have caused under-performing returns during the 2002-2006 Bull market. I think both GE and Citi recently focused on high-performance, low-risk operations where their size (breadth and depth) gives them what managers refer to as an “unfair advantage”. Dell, as I say, still has some work to do, but I like the positioning.

We – the owners and managers of capital – are about to go into battle. The enemy is the economy, presently excessive market multiples, the constant random noise and misinformation of Talking Heads, and greatly heightened socio-political conflict in the world. Prices in our stock and bond markets are likely to come under fire. If we are not prepared to defend and to counter-attack, we will lose.

Most of you were unprepared in 2000 for the devastating capital losses that the People suffered through 2002. Back in 2000, I was not around to help as I was working 100-hour weeks to build what is now a successful securities brokerage, but I am here today.

Some of you have been in training with me now for almost three years. You have watched stocks enter the Distribution Zone and have seen the need to defend and pull back, and ready yourself for the counter-attack once the stocks come to us in the Accumulation Zone.

You know the protocol; you understand the need for discipline. You are more prepared than at any time in your past. I have full confidence you will succeed.

Today I am going to honor my wife; it is her birthday. So, I started writing this Week In Review early, and will return Sunday morning to complete it. Today it will be out to the theatre and to dinner with the family.

The report from Value Line this week is on the king of fast food, McDonalds. Dinner for us definitely will not be fast food. The movie, however, will be The Queen.

(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 9: next one is due Jun. 8)

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Just as all global stock markets were smashed a week ago, the markets bounced back this week. Not all the way back, mind you. China, which had plunged -9.8 pct, recovered +3.3 pct. Japan, which had plunged -3.9 pct, recovered +1.7 pct. And, the UK, which had plunged -6.8 pct, recovered +4.2 pct.

U.S. Equities : All broad indexes recovered, but the correction on the week (averaging about +1 pct) was less than the prior Friday’s loss, which itself was a small part of the huge weekly loss. So, this week was better. Just not close to being good enough to let the Bulls swagger down Wall Street. Stagger is more like it.

Dow 30 : This week it was 22 up and 8 down, which was a sharp reversal of the prior week when 28 went down. But, the two lonely winners of a week ago (Merck and AIG) were this week up +0.95 pct and down -0.68 pct, respectively. No leadership there.

U.S. Sector ETFs: All ten of my sector ETF’s were up this week, whereas all ten had been down the previous week. But, over two weeks, all ten are down a lot. Consumer Discretionary Spending (XLY), the worst, is down -4.0 pct over two weeks. Seems to be spelling “R” in “US”. In other words, no tickee, big trouble for US economy.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #2 (+2.4 pct); Higher oil prices
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #3 (+2.4 pct); Pricing power in the steels
20: Industrials (XLI): #4 (+1.8 pct); GE (-1.6 pct) still on sale
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 (+1.3 pct); Mild correction after horrible 6 days
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #5 (+1.3 pct); OK for beer drinkers and smokers
35: Healthcare (IYH): #9 (+0.9 pct); Hillary/Obama in the wings
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #7 (+1.0 pct); Down -6 pct the six prior 6 days
45: Tech (SMH chips): #1 (+2.8 pct); Down -5.3 pct a week earlier
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #8 (+1.0 pct); Down -2.9 pct a week earlier
55: Utilities (XLU): #10 (+0.1 pct); From first to last this week.

Bonds: The US Bond market gave back some of the prior week’s solid gains. First “sub-prime” and now “Alt-A” loans are in trouble. Pump in more money to help this industry, and commodity prices will rocket. This Administration has put itself between a rock and a hard place. Credit bubble management looks to me like a long and winding road back to prosperity.

Commodities: $CRB lost, but only -0.7 pct W/W, which only happened because of a loss of -1.1 pct on Friday, possibly through Fed intervention in the PM market.

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were up +0.21 pct W/W to 61.77, which is nine straight weeks on the plus side.

Gold: The Precious Metals were up only modestly because of Friday’s broad losses. Platinum was weakest, possibly because it has been driven up by speculation in China and the People’s Bank is starting to clamp down. Base metals were stronger this week, possibly because just four companies (BHP, Rio Tinto, Exstrata and CVRD) are now sufficiently powerful and aggressive to squeeze the shorts.

Goldminers: Mixed performance. With ETF’s, it is no longer difficult for Wall Street or the Fed to organize Bear raids.

Forex: The $USD gained a little (+0.62 pct) and the Euro and Pound both lost a little (-0.61 pct). The Yen, which had rallied +3.73 pct (in a single week!) a week earlier, gave back -1.21 pct this week. With the Bank of Japan’s fiscal year to end March 31, there is widespread discussion that the carry trade will be winding down, thereby putting upward pressure on the Yen. The story is that unsuspecting shorts will be squeezed.

Economic calendar for next week. The focus is returning to inflation. This week, as expected, the European Central Bank increased its key policy interest rate by +25 basis points to 3.75 pct. The ECB says it wants to curb inflation by removing monetary accommodation, but M3 money supply growth (a gauge of future inflation) is growing at +9.7 pct (3-month Moving Average) Y/Y, which is the fastest growth rate in 17 years. So interest rates in Europe look like they are going higher, which will hurt econ growth where 2006 was the best year in the past six. Unions are now demanding higher wages. Germany's biggest labor union is demanding a +6.5 pct pay increase for 3.4 million workers. This is a classic case of stagflation, which, unless resolved, will ultimately take down equity prices.

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Cara Stock Watch

This week there are still zero RSI-7 >70 (ie, in the Distribution Zone) in the Cara 100. Two weeks ago – right before the pull-back - it was 25 of 100. I noted at the time that the market was, in the short-term, over-bought and getting “frothy”. Now it is just dazed and possibly waiting for a second shoe to drop. The problem is that you never know when a small pull-back (ie, secondary or tertiary wave correction) turns into a big one (ie, a primary correction known as a major Bear).

Normal sector rotation returned to the US market this week. If the Bear takes control, trend and cycle traders expect that market prices peak and decline in the following order: (i) interest-rate sensitive segment XLU, IYZ and XLF), (ii) economy sensitive segment (IYH, XLP, XLY, and SMH), and (iii) $USD and natural resources sensitive segment (XLI, XLE, XLB and Gold).

In the near-term price action, the performance of SMH (#1) and IYH (#9) can be explained by the prior week’s action, where the high-beta SMH was smashed excessively during the market sell-off, and the low-beta, defensive IYH was a hiding place. For those two, there was a reversion to the norm this week.

But, all the rest acted normally: XLU #10, IYZ #8 and XLF #7 were the worst. Next were the consumers XLY #6 and XLP #5, followed by the Industrials #4. The relatively best, ie, the last to fall in a Bear, were the XLE #3 and XLB #2.

Interactive link to Friday Daily unsmoothed RSI-7 <30 in Cara 100 (12 of 54: a week ago it was 9, and two weeks ago it was just 1.)

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During the normal sector rotation, it pays to be watching the make-up of the gainers and losers on Friday’s. I’m not surprised to see steel, iron ore and base metals in three of the top five slots of the gainers, and consumers/transports to be four of the top five losers.

I’m referring to a theoretical market model and subtle price changes, but close observation shows traders the undeniable fact that price motion in markets is not random like some academic papers have suggested, and on which complex computer trading algorithms have been built.

Readers often ask if my prognostications are intuitive, and while I may not be able to explain them in academic detail, there is a basis for everything I do. At the end of the day, I refer to the market as a dance. And when prices don’t flow naturally, you start looking for reasons. Often the driver is Fed intervention or some other form of manipulation.

And when I see situations that I sense are being manipulated (and they frequently are), and I’m a participant (obviously on the outside), I just throw my hands in the air and shout, “I’m out.”

Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

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Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

Research In Motion (RIMM) actually became Research In Motionless this week as far as I am concerned. RIMM is now out of the Cara 100, which will be the Cara 99 until I find a replacement.

There were two stocks of the Cara 100 that hit new 52-week highs on Friday: RY (Cdn bank) and VIP (Russian telecom).

At the top I gave General Electric (GE) a boost, but I see in the interim that a reader has sent in reportage that GE is sitting on the wrong end of potentially billions of dollars of sub-prime loan losses. Since this was news to me, maybe we should focus on that. Clearly, all of us have to be aware of credit bubble management.

This is a sharing blog where I get to learn as well. Perhaps some experts would like to comment.

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Sector ETF Review

The tables I show are for ten Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only.

For the Tech sector, there are many sub-sector ETF’s I could have selected, but I feel the chip industry is a leading group, and a very important one. After I get BillCara2.com the way I want it, I intend to devote more time and space to ETF’s in the blog and the WIR.

Of the ten I have been following here, 10 of 10 were up this week, but they are all big losers over two weeks.

The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SMH	34.61	0.58	1.70%	2.82%	-2.67%	0.73%	3.10%	1.23%	3.90%	-3.65%
XLE	57.40	-0.25	-0.43%	2.41%	-2.13%	-2.10%	1.45%	-4.76%	6.39%	12.31%
XLB	37.31	0.43	1.17%	2.36%	-2.84%	1.47%	7.80%	4.95%	17.51%	21.29%
XLI	35.45	0.18	0.51%	1.75%	-3.14%	-1.50%	0.62%	0.40%	10.13%	9.04%
XLP	26.22	0.08	0.31%	1.27%	-2.24%	-1.28%	-0.23%	0.58%	2.66%	9.57%
XLY	38.26	0.08	0.21%	1.27%	-3.99%	-3.94%	-0.67%	0.10%	14.93%	15.76%
XLF	35.87	0.09	0.25%	1.04%	-3.83%	-4.37%	-2.84%	-0.94%	7.20%	10.88%
IYZ	30.42	0.24	0.80%	1.00%	-1.93%	-1.27%	2.56%	4.79%	13.38%	20.48%
IYH	66.58	0.12	0.18%	0.88%	-2.69%	-3.25%	0.18%	0.53%	3.10%	4.03%
XLU	38.20	-0.05	-0.13%	0.13%	-1.22%	0.76%	3.75%	3.89%	11.18%	21.23%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE gained +2.41 pct to 57.40 after previously losing -4.43 pct. $WTIC (Crude futures) gained 13 cents (+0.21 pct) to $61.77.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IMO	35.79	0.48	1.36%	4.50%	-1.51%	0.25%	0.36%	-7.04%	4.47%	-62.84%
PBR	90.27	0.97	1.09%	4.39%	-5.59%	-6.53%	-9.42%	-8.09%	7.79%	8.34%
CVX	68.47	0.01	0.01%	2.52%	-3.66%	-7.16%	-3.52%	-5.99%	6.62%	25.75%
SU	70.64	-0.26	-0.37%	2.07%	-4.05%	-2.86%	-4.42%	-10.86%	-1.12%	-0.65%
ECA	47.89	0.41	0.86%	1.92%	-0.83%	-1.84%	5.62%	-9.30%	-3.31%	11.89%
CEO	80.96	-1.04	-1.27%	1.67%	-2.28%	-4.56%	-14.12%	-8.66%	-2.06%	2.81%
XOM	71.12	-0.73	-1.02%	1.59%	-5.45%	-5.75%	-4.03%	-5.80%	6.45%	20.71%
TOT	66.23	0.10	0.15%	1.30%	-4.80%	-3.74%	-6.68%	-7.07%	3.19%	6.50%
STO	25.45	0.04	0.16%	0.83%	-4.14%	-2.60%	-0.93%	-6.43%	0.79%	-0.66%

The Canadian energy stocks recovered nicely from the prior week’s hammering: IMO +4.5 pct, SU +2.1 pct and ECA +1.9 pct. PBR and CVX were up +4.4 pct and +2.5 pct respectively.

I see that Shell is trying to buy Shell Canada and ExxonMobil has announced plans to do more exploration in Canada. They also own 70 pct of Canada’s Imperial Oil (IMO).

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) was 2nd best ETF performer out of 10. XLB gained +2.36 pct, but that is still less than half the prior week’s loss of -5.08 pct. XLB closed at 37.31.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NUE	64.26	1.14	1.81%	9.40%	-0.23%	1.40%	17.91%	-1.97%	29.37%	42.64%
RIO	34.96	0.67	1.95%	6.91%	-4.72%	3.71%	21.30%	19.48%	61.33%	65.37%
PKX	99.70	0.82	0.83%	6.46%	0.85%	9.78%	25.52%	26.46%	61.22%	68.01%
GGB	17.04	0.36	2.16%	4.80%	-7.89%	-2.07%	3.78%	4.16%	17.60%	-25.00%
BHP	42.89	0.13	0.30%	3.13%	-7.37%	-1.54%	10.34%	5.56%	6.51%	24.86%
RTP	210.65	-0.82	-0.39%	2.07%	-8.56%	-1.09%	3.21%	-2.21%	6.80%	17.02%
MT	52.17	-0.33	-0.63%	1.72%	0.06%	9.76%	27.87%	22.90%	55.13%	59.79%
AA	33.20	0.71	2.19%	1.53%	-5.36%	1.72%	13.19%	6.72%	15.76%	15.24%
TCK	68.10	0.69	1.02%	-0.03%	-8.07%	-3.61%	-1.66%	-10.13%	1.63%	0.00%
TS	44.32	-0.18	-0.40%	-0.98%	-7.22%	-6.30%	-8.66%	-4.85%	22.74%	29.89%

A week ago I wrote, “This is the sector we have to watch to see what the Fed intends to do next. If its a case of more money printing, then this is the sector (especially the metals group) that will claw itself back.”

There was a significant recovery, including +2.84 pct to Copper prices and Nickel set an all-time high, but the Precious Metals were mixed. Silver was flat and Platinum was down -0.6 pct. Gold and Palladium were up +1.2 pct and +1.8 pct respectively.

If it is true that the Fed and the ECB and BoJ have to keep their pedal to the metal (M3 growing at about +10 pct in a global economy that is growing less than one-third as fast), then the Precious Metals are going higher – to the cycle highs I forecasted at the start of the year.

Metals prices are always volatile when the economic cycle is extended, inflation targets of central bankers are much lower than current inflation rates, and central bank policy dictates periodic intervention. In addition, in recent years, the number of senior mining companies has consolidated via use of debt, and now these companies are trying to squeeze profits by raising prices.

Did you know that of the (approx.) half-trillion dollar total financing of the mining industry in the past eight years, at least two-thirds has come via debt. The smaller and mid-cap companies have largely used equity finance, which puts the risk on the individual investors, but the majors have used debt, which has set up weaker balance sheets. Ergo: higher product prices to service that debt.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was up +1.75 pct W/W to close at 35.45.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4 Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HON	47.23	-0.08	-0.17%	2.88%	-0.96%	1.42%	4.72%	11.18%	23.38%	14.44%
BA	89.51	0.62	0.70%	2.85%	-0.85%	-0.01%	0.38%	-0.69%	22.95%	21.35%
MMM	74.73	0.21	0.28%	2.36%	-1.94%	0.12%	-4.51%	-4.88%	4.50%	4.08%
CAT	64.40	0.09	0.14%	2.16%	-4.25%	-1.87%	5.30%	1.58%	-4.34%	-9.80%
ERJ	45.43	0.05	0.11%	2.07%	-0.81%	2.69%	11.40%	9.55%	8.74%	14.29%
ABB	16.85	-0.07	-0.41%	2.00%	-5.60%	-8.82%	-5.44%	-0.71%	27.85%	44.88%
FDX	114.67	1.08	0.95%	1.93%	-5.21%	0.81%	4.46%	-0.55%	13.86%	2.06%
UTX	64.50	-0.06	-0.09%	0.23%	-4.52%	-5.22%	2.69%	-0.34%	1.83%	12.37%
GE	34.32	-0.13	-0.38%	-1.58%	-2.22%	-3.97%	-9.61%	-2.69%	0.91%	3.37%

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With the Dow Transports moving up over 5000, Colin Twiggs opined three weeks ago, “The Dow Transports have confirmed the primary Bull market.” Two weeks ago, he was starting to look at technical support levels at 4500 for a possible Bear case. Then a week ago, the 5000 support did not hold and, in fact, was easily smashed.

I told readers all along that I no longer consider the Dow Transports (led by international powerhouse Fedex) to be a significant Dow Theory indicator. Besides, I wrote, I thought FDX shares were being used as an instrument by the Bulls to in a sense prove their Bull case (ie, in another sense, to mislead the public).

So with this week’s recovery, the Dow Transports are back to 4830, and facing resistance at 5000. You see, in technical terms, once a support level is broken on the down side, it become a resistance level to the upside if prices reverse again.

UPS has been a dog since December when I believe the Bulls started pushing FDX as the “bellwhether”.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +1.27 pct W/W to close at 38.26.

Now technicians will be looking to see if a rising price can take the sector back up through the 50-day (10-week) Moving Average (39.09)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BC	33.28	0.05	0.15%	3.48%	-2.35%	-1.42%	4.26%	2.24%	13.27%	-12.42%
TM	133.14	-1.30	-0.97%	3.14%	-1.74%	0.79%	-1.60%	9.14%	25.18%	25.60%
NKE	105.85	1.25	1.20%	1.92%	-2.03%	2.38%	8.38%	9.08%	29.01%	24.02%
JCP	80.31	-0.55	-0.68%	1.90%	-4.45%	-3.76%	2.88%	4.39%	25.15%	32.02%
SBUX	30.31	-0.39	-1.27%	1.44%	-7.42%	-9.31%	-14.01%	-16.78%	-2.82%	-13.20%
DIS	34.37	-0.32	-0.92%	1.24%	-2.19%	-2.61%	0.50%	-0.06%	16.19%	22.36%
CCL	46.26	0.01	0.02%	1.23%	-2.84%	-6.68%	-9.21%	-2.18%	8.36%	-7.16%
WHR	87.85	-0.97	-1.09%	1.07%	-5.89%	-2.93%	3.77%	2.34%	6.74%	1.78%
EBAY	30.81	-0.21	-0.68%	-0.06%	-9.36%	-8.28%	2.12%	-2.96%	8.07%	-18.21%

The gains by Brunswick (BC) +3.5 pct, Toyota (TM) +3.1 pct, and Nike (NKE) and JC Penny (JCP) +1.9 pct hardly qualify as a recovery.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) gained +1.27 pct W/W to close at $26.22.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	52.58	1.07	2.08%	8.10%	0.48%	1.80%	7.09%	10.62%	18.16%	26.91%
BUD	50.20	0.38	0.76%	4.28%	0.30%	0.02%	1.99%	5.02%	5.86%	16.91%
MO	86.86	0.90	1.05%	4.05%	1.73%	1.92%	0.40%	2.39%	4.69%	19.26%
KO	47.57	0.42	0.89%	3.66%	0.66%	-0.61%	-2.08%	-2.74%	6.66%	12.19%
WAG	44.59	-0.03	-0.07%	0.97%	-1.61%	-2.56%	-3.21%	2.20%	-12.41%	-0.47%
PEP	62.88	-0.17	-0.27%	-0.08%	-2.63%	-0.68%	0.26%	-0.62%	-2.86%	4.80%
DEO	76.90	0.53	0.69%	-0.14%	-6.29%	-2.89%	-3.31%	-0.71%	9.30%	23.47%
WFMI	46.02	-0.22	-0.48%	-0.45%	-8.82%	1.52%	1.19%	-5.85%	-13.43%	-27.20%
WMT	47.42	-0.46	-0.96%	-0.82%	-4.34%	-1.84%	-0.27%	2.31%	1.50%	4.82%
PG	62.16	-0.15	-0.24%	-1.58%	-4.10%	-3.76%	-3.69%	-2.71%	1.67%	1.17%

Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI) was a good case study for the Accumulation Zone (AZ). Yes, for a couple days, the RSI-7 was down in the zone for the Monthly-Weekly-Daily data, which was good for a trade, but the sector (GICS 30) was still too strong, and falling. So the best play for the long-term trader is to just relax and let these prices come to you.

Two weeks ago, WFMI sold down and the RSI-7 was in the Accumulation Zone. I opined there would be a small bounce, and that traders ought to sell on strength (if the 10-min RSI-7 hit 80, which it did on Feb 26 at 50.40). The price then dropped to a low of 45.68 at the open last Monday, followed by a couple attempts to rally during the week, followed by a sell-off on Friday, closing 46.02. The weekly chart shows a series of lower lows and lower lows since the end of 2005. Suffice to say that WFMI has been in a Bear market.

How low can WFMI go? Well, it touched 42 several weeks ago when the Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 was down at about 30 – the Cara Accumulation Zone – so the stock was good for a short-term trade back to close to 52.50 on a spike. But, with the price at 46.02, the RSI-7 is currently at 36.3/34.4 for the Monthly-Weekly data, and headed lower over the next couple months. I suppose we’ll see WFMI back in the Accumulation Zone again soon.

By watching the stock price closely, particularly relative to XLP and to Food Stores, you will get a sense of when the stock has bottomed out. Buying stock then, or writing put options, is a low risk strategy because Whole Foods Market is a superlative marketer. Within the financials, the business model and operationally, nothing has changed. The company is not broken; the stock did suffer a break-down due to exhaustion on the upside where fundamental metrics like Price to Earnings simply were not justifiable. This is after all, a food store. Increasingly, people want to eat healthier food, and they are prepared to pay up for it. The company will grow through expansion. I like it for the long term, but to me, next to quality, price is all-important. There is no need to over pay.

For the rest of the stocks in this sector, I note that beer drinkers (ABV +8.1 pct and Bud +4.3 pct) and smokers (MO +4.1 pct) are active. And so too is Coca-Cola (KO) at gain of +3.7 pct on the week. I surmise from this that, despite XLP gaining only +1.3 pct, traders are still nervous and are trying to hide money in the high-profile, low-beta, defensive names.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF gained +0.88 pct W/W to close at 66.58. Over six sessions, IYH is almost flat.

I’m waiting for the Republicans and the Democrats to blame each other for the woes in this sector. Politics and regulation (meaning that insiders get to know more than the rest of us) is one reason why I under-weight this sector by number of companies in the Cara 100.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PFE	25.41	0.00	0.00%	2.50%	-0.82%	-3.90%	-3.35%	0.95%	-7.90%	-2.98%
NVS	56.27	-0.43	-0.76%	2.48%	-4.06%	-4.09%	-3.22%	-2.46%	0.20%	3.80%
BMY	26.92	-0.24	-0.88%	1.89%	-0.48%	-6.20%	2.05%	6.19%	16.13%	18.59%
GSK	55.59	-0.04	-0.07%	1.79%	-2.34%	-0.45%	3.31%	5.85%	0.93%	2.94%
JNJ	62.14	0.42	0.68%	0.31%	-3.13%	-5.50%	-6.42%	-5.78%	-2.28%	6.57%
BMET	42.12	-0.05	-0.12%	-0.19%	-0.64%	-0.61%	1.57%	5.56%	28.93%	20.00%
AET	43.74	-0.30	-0.68%	-1.06%	-5.04%	1.89%	2.01%	3.21%	19.84%	-12.01%
AMGN	60.86	-1.31	-2.11%	-1.44%	-8.11%	-12.78%	-11.02%	-12.96%	-10.41%	-17.29%
DNA	81.58	0.44	0.54%	-1.46%	-4.57%	-6.28%	-0.27%	-2.17%	-0.60%	-0.75%
UNH	53.00	-0.33	-0.62%	-2.18%	-0.06%	3.43%	0.82%	6.19%	4.13%	-5.93%

After NVS lost -6.4 pct the previous week, it regained +2.5 pct as did PFE. Nothing much going on here. In a Bear market, the sector will become a political football.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

After dropping almost -6 pct in the prior six sessions, the Financials ETF (XLF) regained just +1.04 pct this week. Some of you may think there is a nascent broad market rally in the works, which will be led by the Financials, but yields have already been dropped too low and are now on the rise, which is not going to be any help to the Financials.

As for the sub-prime and alt-A mortgage loan issue being (i) bad, (ii) not so bad, or (iii) worse than reported, I think this is one picture that will be hard to color. The numbers will be as bad as they are. Now that the public is focusing on them, I think we will see there is a very serious issue here.

Watch the loan loss provisions, and the margin calls, and the litigation, of the big banks.

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
LEH	75.83	0.08	0.11%	5.17%	-4.06%	-10.18%	-3.56%	-1.56%	14.67%	7.23%
MS	76.00	0.59	0.78%	3.54%	-6.14%	-8.23%	-6.89%	-3.32%	13.96%	29.56%
GS	201.70	1.76	0.88%	3.08%	-6.84%	-5.70%	0.49%	-1.66%	34.65%	42.41%
CSR	59.15	-0.11	-0.19%	2.76%	6.25%	7.66%	-1.68%	0.00%	6.50%	7.12%
HBC	88.19	0.11	0.12%	2.23%	-0.63%	-1.77%	-5.14%	-2.23%	-1.32%	3.21%
DB	129.99	0.37	0.29%	1.73%	-7.08%	-6.83%	-3.95%	-0.70%	15.42%	21.43%
JPM	48.82	0.08	0.16%	1.31%	-4.33%	-4.14%	1.56%	4.41%	7.87%	18.93%
MER	82.95	-0.30	-0.36%	0.96%	-6.84%	-12.09%	-11.39%	-8.40%	14.08%	7.67%
UBS	58.29	-0.54	-0.92%	0.76%	-5.57%	-8.95%	-5.05%	-2.83%	3.30%	12.57%
C	50.33	-0.17	-0.34%	0.72%	-6.40%	-7.55%	-8.90%	-2.93%	3.30%	8.26%

The LEH, MS and GS stocks put on a brave face, recovering with gains of +5.2 pct, +3.5 pct and +3.1 pct respectively. But, even with these sizeable gains, over four weeks LEH, MS and GS are still down -10.2 pct, -8.2 pct, and -5.7 pct respectively. MER is down -12.1 pct, UBS down -9.0 pct, C down -7.6 pct and DB down -6.8 pct.

This is a tough month for the Humungous Bank & Broker components – about the same as (and certainly not better than) the senior goldminers.

The problem is that any one of the parts of HB&B has a market cap exceeding all the goldminers combined, so traders need a little perspective.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

If you recall from last week’s WIR, I wrote, “A week ago, the semi-conductor ETF (SMH) lifted strongly to 35.56 and was ETF performer #1. This week SMH dropped to the back of the pack. You might say that the 45 car, regardless of a few false starts, is a consistent back marker… SMH dropped -5.34 pct this week to close at 33.66, which happen to be very lucky and powerful numbers to over 1.3 billion people.”

Well, this week, SMH was #1 performer again, gaining +2.82 pct, closing at 34.61. That indicates two things: (i) I don’t know my racing, and (ii) I ought to stick to Chinese numerology.

I often ask the Chinese (in China) to give me the names of the listed companies, which are listed by number, and they don’t know. They trade “lucky numbers” and by word of mouth.

Here is the list of the first 15 China traded stocks in my GICS/Country-coded database.

How many “4’s” do you see versus 3, 6, 8 and 9? The number 4 is unlucky in China. The others are lucky. I grew up as a teenager when No. 4’s Bobby Orr and Jean Beliveau were my favorite hockey players, so 4 was “my” number. After my first trip to China, my numbers became 3, 6 and 8. That is, after all, a big crowd that you don’t want against you. Sometimes, I’ll even time-stamp my blog entries differently to avoid a 4 – unless of course it’s a downer article.

We all have biases whether we appreciate it or not. In trading, because so much of it is art involving psychology, you have to look for every edge you can get, and, trust me, numerology plays a big part. Look at the fibonacci series, for example. Although I don’t agree with over-hyped Elliott Wave marketing, I am certainly inclined to use fib numbers in my analysis.

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Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CTSH	91.50	0.48	0.53%	5.26%	-3.27%	-2.65%	17.67%	13.35%	32.13%	65.22%
SNDK	39.41	-0.40	-1.00%	4.09%	2.10%	-5.76%	-5.54%	-10.61%	-30.25%	-26.38%
CSCO	26.08	-0.07	-0.27%	3.08%	-5.20%	-7.35%	-5.98%	-3.34%	19.91%	27.59%
INFY	54.02	-0.06	-0.11%	1.68%	-6.36%	-10.73%	-3.22%	-1.75%	21.42%	56.40%
QCOM	40.14	-0.08	-0.20%	1.67%	-7.43%	4.91%	7.15%	1.52%	9.85%	-16.55%
ADBE	39.16	0.08	0.20%	1.29%	-3.62%	2.92%	-1.90%	0.67%	23.11%	4.59%
SAP	46.03	-0.09	-0.20%	-0.41%	0.33%	-0.86%	-13.48%	-10.41%	-0.54%	-10.24%
ORCL	16.63	-0.06	-0.36%	-0.48%	-1.13%	-0.54%	-5.03%	-6.57%	4.53%	29.52%
INTC	19.10	-0.13	-0.68%	-0.62%	-8.00%	-10.54%	-6.14%	-7.64%	-1.80%	-3.29%
ADSK	38.54	0.01	0.03%	-3.14%	-9.25%	-8.76%	-4.98%	-8.28%	15.08%	1.42%

After suffering a loss of -6.3 pct, ADSK this week was down a further –3.1 pct. I have been too busy to watch what’s going on there.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

A week earlier, during the market smash-up, the U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) dropped -2.90 pct W/W, which put it second best. Money seeking a safe-haven, which, as long as interest rates do not balloon, is a good place to be if the companies whose stocks you hold are high dividend payers.

A week ago, Verizon (VZ) was hit -5.0 pct, and AT&T (T) was down a relatively minor -1.5 pct. This week, T gained +0.3 pct, while VZ lost -0.1 pct. There is nothing happening here, yet, and I don’t suppose it will until interest rates change. After the Fed starts to cut rates, I suppose, these stocks will be early into the Accumulation Zone.

The first leg up in a new Bull market usually shows strength in the regulated telcos and utilities and in the commercial banks. This time around, however, maybe it’s best to avoid, for a time, the financials that hold defaulting debt.

As you can see, some of the sub-prime lenders are off -90 pct in the past several weeks, and now some are talking bankruptcy. Could this problem blow up into a nuclear cloud over the Money Center Banks? I’m like you, wondering.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

A week ago, the Utilities ETF (XLU) were the best performer, but were still down -1.34 pct, which surprised me because bonds had been so strong. This week, XLU gained +0.13 pct, which is a wooden nickel, to close at 38.20.

Bonds were down on the week, so I didn’t expect too much out of the Utilities (#10) or the Telco’s (#8).

If you go back to the excitement related to the private equity $45 billion deal or TXU, you will see that was a cycle peak. I am surmising, given the size of the debt expansion on a single deal, that the Fed reacted in a not-kind way.

I stated back then before and after the TXU deal was announced, “This relative strength in recent weeks in the Utilities still bothers me though… Well the poop came from so-called “Private Equity”, which had been mounting a $mega-billion buy-out of Texas Utilities (TXU). This private vs public equity thing is now totally out of control. The amount of illegal insider trading is downright ridiculous, and nobody at the SEC seems to care much. I wonder why?

Insider trading is one issue; out-of-control credit expansion is another.

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Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bond & Interest Rate Review

A week ago, I wrote, “US Treasury bonds rocketed north as the yields plummeted -16, -17, -23, and -27 basis points (bp) to 4.62 pct, 4.48 pct, -4.41 pct and -4.51 pct respectively on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper. And, the T-Bill yield dropped from 5.01 pct to 4.93 pct, so traders might be thinking that the Fed is about to drop rates. One has to ask if these yields are dropping because of long-term interest in bonds or because the stock market drop has panicked traders into switching from stocks to bonds. At this point, I think the latter.”

This week, as soon as traders saw a bottoming in stocks, the yields moved back up (about half the prior week’s fall). That was money flowing from bonds back into stocks.

I also opined a week ago, “I don’t think the majority of traders are convinced yet that a US recession is in the cards, which would make bonds a good deal. I would agree that more people are thinking that way, however. I have long stated that I believe the US economy is headed for recession, but I have also opined that the US Administration, including the Fed, will do all it can to print their way out. That’s one reason why I have been so positive on precious metals.”

It is important to put these ideas to paper, and go back to review the notes at times. Sometimes you learn how little you really know, and that is precisely the point.

When I was young, traders were called “investors” and there was a “prudent man rule” for capital managers that flat-out indicted technical indicators as a fraud. And, when Talking Heads and sell-side Research Departments spoke, there was an air of propriety and finality.

Now we know better. We know we trade prices, and we know the value of the study of price motion. Moreover, none of us really knows if the US economy is going to go into recession, and we cannot even agree as to a definition of the term, and certainly how it would affect, with any specificity, the stock and bond markets, if, as and when it should happen.

What then is happening is that spin-doctors are using high-priced economists to alter your bias in the hope you remain a market follower, and not a thinker.

Nothing more than keeping a log of events, ideas, opinions, and exposing them on the Internet in the form of a blog shows how little you and I truly know. But nothing keeps you and me from trying to learn because we happen to be students of the market.

We learn a lot through our failures. Among many other things, we learn to trade less frequently; to consider risk ahead of reward; to take smaller average positions; and to cope with losses. But the most important thing I learned is to apply my sense of intellectual curiosity and to trust the price motion more than any other aspect of the market.

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Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Interactive Daily data charts:

Interactive Hourly data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.92	4.92	4.93	4.99
6 Month	4.90	4.85	4.81	4.93
2 Year	4.64	4.54	4.51	4.85
3 Year	4.57	4.46	4.44	4.76
5 Year	4.53	4.43	4.41	4.71
10 Year	4.57	4.49	4.48	4.72
30 Year	4.70	4.63	4.62	4.83

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.48	3.48	3.56	3.67
2yr AAA	3.47	3.46	3.55	3.62
2yr A	3.56	3.55	3.53	3.62
5yr AAA	3.51	3.51	3.58	3.64
5yr AA	3.59	3.57	3.58	3.59
5yr A	3.62	3.61	3.69	3.72
10yr AAA	3.63	3.61	3.64	3.74
10yr AA	3.58	3.58	3.63	3.74
10yr A	3.93	3.91	3.94	4.05
20yr AAA	4.14	4.15	4.06	4.15
20yr AA	4.07	4.08	3.99	3.91
20yr A	3.99	4.00	4.06	3.85

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.98	4.87	4.84	5.13
2yr A	5.02	4.91	4.90	5.20
5yr AAA	4.99	4.88	4.87	5.09
5yr AA	5.08	4.98	4.96	5.19
5yr A	5.09	5.00	4.98	5.26
10yr AAA	5.18	5.08	5.08	5.52
10yr AA	5.42	5.37	5.37	5.47
10yr A	5.44	5.36	5.35	5.52
20yr AAA	5.75	5.69	5.66	5.76
20yr AA	6.30	6.19	5.74	5.84
20yr A	5.89	5.83	5.79	5.90

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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TLT was close to being flat all week, until Friday when it got hammered. On Friday, TLT dropped -1.05 pct, making the loss for the week -0.85 pct, closing at 89.40.

A week ago I wrote that I could see so many cross-currents in the US Treasury market that I didn’t know what was happening. I wrote, “I just don’t know how to read this (spectacular gain in bonds) when I see the Euro and Yen skyrocketing and the $USD falling. That doesn’t make sense.”

I argued that, “The bellwhether on the US bonds next week will be the action of the Cdn Dollar and the British Pound. If they start to recover (and rally), then I think the metals will as well.”

The Cdn Dollar (+0.40 pct W/W) and the British Pound (-0.62 pct W/W) were mixed. And, on Friday, the Cdn Dollar had a big up day (+0.76 pct), which made its week, while the Pound was also up a bit (+0.13 pct). But the $USD was also higher, and metals and bonds sold off a lot on the day.

Other than saying this is a mixed up market, I don’t know what to say. The ECB increased their key lending rate by 25 bp, but that had been expected, and the Euro (in USD) was off -0.14 on Friday. The Japanese Yen was down on Friday (-0.83 pct), making it a loss of -1.21 pct on the week. So the stories of the unwinding of the carry trade did not pan out.

I am pointing this out because neither bonds nor currencies moved in the direction I expected this week.

Even Fannie (FNM) (+1.3 pct W/W) and Freddie (FRE) (-0.4 pct W/W) didn’t get their act together.

These things happen, but when they do, I have come to expect a large move one way or another. For the record, I think that bond prices are going to come back down at this point. The weekly RSI/Stochastic indicators look poised to fall. The action on Friday was distinctly negative as you can see on the Daily and Hourly price data charts.

Moreover, the Bond King recently opined that this would not be a good time to buy bonds.

And if it is not a good time to buy US Treasury Bonds, then it’s likely not a good time to be holding $USD. It’s usually a good time to be holding Precious Metals under these circumstances, which I’ll get to review in a few minutes.

My head is not working too well today, and we lost an hour via Daylight Savings, so it seems to be taking forever to get through this material.

I guess the sell-side is at work there too. We save the hour in the Fall; and lose it in the Spring. But, we call it Daylight Savings in the Spring, when things are dark for an extra hour. Go figure.

I have this complex that everything negative is sold as a positive, so I blame it all on the sell-side. (LOL)

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

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SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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A week ago, I opined, “The charts for the Bonds are technically bullish, but not so much I want to be a buyer of them. I also noted where PIMCO’s Bill Gross (world’s biggest bond trader) issued a warning. And I noted the Daily RSI-7 values on the TIPs is stronger than for the other bonds, which means that traders are paying closer attention now to inflation -- even if the Fed has been throwing you off the scent this week by selling gold and silver and the PM ETF's.”

Sometimes, I get to say, “Bingo!”

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	55.56	0.06	0.11%	1.29%	-6.61%	-1.54%	-7.18%	-6.76%	6.21%	3.52%
SHY	80.20	-0.14	-0.17%	-0.12%	0.02%	0.31%	0.20%	0.04%	0.24%	0.41%
FRE	61.97	-0.33	-0.53%	-0.35%	-4.66%	-3.92%	-8.72%	-9.63%	-2.33%	-3.19%
AGG	100.23	-0.28	-0.28%	-0.42%	-0.06%	0.27%	0.32%	-0.29%	1.07%	1.05%
IEF	83.14	-0.51	-0.61%	-0.51%	0.47%	1.02%	0.56%	-0.17%	1.32%	1.50%
TIP	100.45	-0.46	-0.46%	-0.60%	0.61%	1.46%	1.23%	-0.16%	0.15%	-0.76%
TLT	89.40	-0.95	-1.05%	-0.85%	0.63%	1.42%	0.37%	-0.93%	2.37%	0.89%
CFC	36.10	-0.48	-1.31%	-2.49%	-8.21%	-17.18%	-14.27%	-9.43%	8.02%	5.00%

“Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that somebody was floating a rumor that Bank of America was going to buy out Countrywide Financial (CFC)? Hmmm. These rumors start when big hitters decide they have to "off" their stock. There is so much deception that goes on in markets. As the expression goes, “When it comes to money, people are funny.”

Well, CFC dropped a further -2.5 pct this week.

For proof of concept that the market is a den of snakes, you can link the CFC cycle top in the mid-40’s a few weeks ago to those rumors. CFC closed Friday at 36.10. That rumor helped somebody make between +15 and 20 pct in a couple weeks.

So, tell me this is a level playing field.

What we need is an SEC with teeth, but we are saddled with regulators who wear dentures and who conveniently forget to bring the Polygrip to the office. It’s a Friends & Family thing.

I hope that in six or ten years we’ll have Eliot Spitzer in the Oval Office. The People need the level playing field the crooks keep telling us exists.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The Commodities Index ($CRB) dropped this week -0.66 pct, closing at 308.06. The Oil price lifted a bit; the damage was again in the metals and elsewhere.

The Weekly and Daily charts of the $CRB look awfully much like any rally would be headed off by a falling MA line at about 316.

The cycle high and low is 316.40 and 303.99. If $CRB drops below 303, that would be a negative for the commodity players. If Crude Oil drops back under 60, I believe that $CRB would fall below the current 50-Day MA (300.80), which would be Bearish. The economy is slowing, so that’s a possibility.

But then there are these ugly bombings and kidnappings in the Middle East and Africa, and hurricane season is just three months away, so you never know.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil:

$WTIC moved up from 61.44 to 61.77, which is a gain of +0.21 pct W/W.

The 50-Day Moving Average (from StockCharts) is now 57.99, while the 200-Day MA is 64.67.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

A week ago, $GOLD was smashed -42.60 (-6.20 pct) to 644.10. This week, there was a small recovery 0f +7.90 (+1.23 pct) to 652.00.

The 50d MA is at 650.01 and the more important 200d MA is at 624.69. So technically $GOLD, though shaken, is still bullish.

I do not think the PM cycle is over, but if central banks have agreed to start tightening around the world, that would serve to hurt the Precious Metals, and kill the cycle. Then again, that action by central banks would kill the whole market, and would lead to more money printing, leading to more inflation.

I’d say these are nervous times for the most experienced Gold traders. They are tracking prices around the world, around the clock. None of them has all the answers.

We all have opinions, and I’m happy that some of you are expressing them here, even if and when you disagree with me. But, please try to back up your opinions so that the rest of us can learn.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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After $SILVER plummeted -7.0 pct a week ago, this week there was a gain of 1 cent (+0.08 pct) to close at 12.97. The StockCharts data last week was incorrect.

Interactive 60-minute data

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT dropped -7.60 (-0.63 pct) W/W to 1208.00. The 50-Day MA for $PLAT is now 1184.26 and the 200-Day MA is 1188.14. (A penny lower or two cents higher would have been a lucky number!)

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL gained +6.17 (+1.77 pct) W/W to close at 355.43.

The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for $PALL are 344.98 and 331.80 respectively, which is pretty flat, but below the current price, which means palladium is still technically bullish.

There has been a bullish pattern here since early October (290.88).

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Base metals have been strong. $COPPER a week ago dropped -5.1 pct, but over three weeks is up. $COPPER gained 7.70 (+2.84 pct) W/W to close at 278.40.

The 50-day MA is 264.16, and the 200-Day MA is 318.71.

There was a February low of 238.50, and a high of 290.00, with a subsequent high of 287.40. It looks like that 290.00 price has to be taken out in a rally before I’d start thinking $COPPER is bullish. But that resistance level is just $12 away.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BVN	27.32	0.06	0.22%	2.21%	-6.60%	-6.66%	-1.05%	-3.05%	-3.70%	10.88%
KGC	13.17	0.05	0.38%	2.09%	-6.20%	-0.90%	15.32%	7.07%	-4.15%	46.50%
GFI	17.02	-0.09	-0.53%	1.19%	-7.85%	-0.87%	-7.15%	-5.65%	-13.16%	-9.03%
AEM	36.78	0.14	0.38%	0.46%	-10.40%	-10.27%	-5.50%	-11.63%	0.41%	51.48%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	25.31%	0.00%	-12.37%	23.37%
AUY	13.70	-0.11	-0.80%	-0.51%	-9.03%	-1.79%	11.11%	7.03%	33.92%	61.18%
MDG	25.22	-0.18	-0.71%	-1.18%	-16.90%	-15.62%	-4.07%	-14.60%	-15.37%	4.09%
ABX	27.96	-0.02	-0.07%	-1.79%	-9.98%	-9.19%	-6.27%	-7.14%	-10.87%	9.01%
NEM	42.29	-0.47	-1.10%	-1.92%	-9.73%	-7.68%	-4.32%	-9.85%	-12.24%	-11.51%
GG	24.75	-0.10	-0.40%	-2.14%	-13.01%	-12.70%	-9.47%	-15.30%	-8.54%	-3.47%

After the gold stocks and the base metal stocks suffered huge losses a week ago, this week they were flat. Friday was a down day.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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$XAU, GDX and (TSE’s) XGD were -0.23 pct, +1.09 pct, and -1.21 pct, respectively.

The $XAU index closed at 132.04. The 50d-MA (137.87) and 200d-MA (137.61) are above the current price for the 2nd consecutive week, which means that the PM stocks are technically bearish at this point.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD closed at 84.25, a gain of +0.62 pct W/W. The $USD 50-Day MA is now 84.47, and the 200-Day MA is 85.10, so the current price (84.25) is still technically bearish.

If we are being fed the truth, the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade by large fund managers, if it continues, will stress the $USD in the weeks to come.

The following data requires your attention: M3 update as of the past week.

As M3 grows at a rate that is about three to four times the growth in the economy, there is too much debt being created, and too much money chasing too few goods. The result is inflation in goods and services and speculative gains in securities prices.

So, what was passing for a Dow 12,800 was largely due to something we call a credit balloon. When the banks pull in that credit, the prices of assets will fall, perhaps to 11,800, or 10,800, or 9,800 or even 8,800. But they will fall. I believe.

When debt service becomes a problem, the banks start calling loans and increasing loan loss provisions. The latter is a hit against profits, not when the bank writes off the loan.

When banks call loans, possessions like houses, automobiles, stocks and mutual funds are sold to raise funds to pay back the banker. This might not seem fair, but it is, and every few years, we go through this cycle. As long as we live in a credit-based, sell-side directed society, we always will.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) lost -0.61 pct W/W, closing at 131.13. The $XEU 50-Day MA is 130.54, and the 200-Day MA is 128.56, so the current price (131.13) is technically still bullish.

As I have recently opined, “I’d still like to see the Euro move up through the December high of 132.55 before I feel quite comfortable in holding such an over-weighted position in precious metals. But, I still expect that to happen soon.”

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The British Pound dropped -0.62 pct W/W to close at 193.23 for a second week of big losses against the USD.

The $XBP 50-Day MA is 195.52, and the 200-Day MA is 190.29, so the current price (193.23) is technically bullish in the long-term, but not short-term. Traders must be anxious on this one.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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The Yen/Dollar trade is still volatile. After the Japanese Yen had a very significant rally against the $USD a week ago, which went into Monday this week, hitting a cycle high of 86.64, the market took back much of those gains. This week, the $XJY closed down -1.21 pct to close Friday at 84.67.

Traders who are short the Yen are very nervous here.

The 50-Day MA is 83.43, and the 200-Day MA is 85.31, so the current price (84.67) is now in between – short-term bullish, but still long-term bearish.

I suspect there are currency trading hedge funds, particularly those trading against second and third tier names on the Street (ie, not the Deutsche Banks), that are going to quit over losses in Dollar:Yen trading. I say that after looking at the extreme volatility in the Daily chart over the past six months, knowing that margin required for these contracts is next to nil.

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar gained +0.76 pct on Friday, making the week a small gain (+0.40 pct), closing at 85.35.

The $CDW 50-Day MA is 85.23, and the 200-Day MA is 87.92, so the current price (85.35) is now technically only long-term bearish.

That picture will improve if, as and when precious metal prices start to lift, I think.

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International Equities Review

The Indian ETF (IFN) gained +1.78 pct this week. The Templeton Russia Fund that I use to follow the Russian market was up about the same (+1.82 pct W/W) to 68.84. The China FXI, which had been crushed the previous week (-9.77 pct), recovered +3.31 pct to close at 98.25.

These markets have been technically weak since the start of the year.

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Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)

European indices (Interactive link)

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWZ	46.64	0.79	1.72%	6.39%	-4.86%	-2.97%	-0.13%	1.17%	20.21%	21.33%
EWU	23.34	0.20	0.86%	4.20%	-2.91%	-1.85%	-0.89%	-2.47%	8.31%	18.96%
FXI	98.25	-0.35	-0.35%	3.31%	-6.78%	-8.30%	-15.59%	1.45%	24.05%	40.96%
IEV	104.33	0.30	0.29%	2.21%	-4.05%	-2.86%	-1.20%	-0.19%	11.43%	22.34%
EWC	25.48	0.21	0.83%	2.08%	-3.15%	-0.23%	3.16%	-1.85%	6.34%	10.78%
TRF	68.84	0.12	0.17%	1.82%	-7.78%	-10.01%	-22.26%	-13.04%	-0.52%	-4.65%
IFN	38.78	-0.53	-1.35%	1.78%	-6.10%	-15.49%	-14.47%	-18.61%	-0.46%	-18.36%
EWJ	14.69	0.01	0.07%	1.66%	-2.33%	3.23%	3.45%	4.63%	7.23%	8.65%
SPY	140.78	0.04	0.03%	1.52%	-3.11%	-2.92%	-0.42%	-0.45%	8.06%	10.52%
QQQQ	42.93	-0.04	-0.09%	1.04%	-5.15%	-3.53%	-0.72%	-2.21%	10.87%	5.95%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) gained +1.66 pct W/W to 14.69.

Two weeks ago, I wrote, “The EWJ … current price (15.04) is technically very bullish, but possibly over-heated.” Then the pull-back, followed by this week’s partial recovery – just like most of the other global equity markets.

The problem now is will the recovery continue? As Colin Twiggs says, the long-term technical target of 21000 seems a long way off.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) recovered from the prior week’s loss of -6.82 pct W/W to close this week up +4.20 pct at 23.34. The primary trend is up, but as Colin Twiggs opines, the FTSE may have found support, but is still close to it.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

EWC (priced in USD) had a gain of +2.08 pct W/W to close Friday at 25.48. Friday’s gain was +0.83 pct.

But, the Cdn equity market is treading water. When credit is being pulled in by the banks, you cannot expect to see prices rally.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities Review

The broad market indexes in the U.S. recovered from +0.8 pct to +1.3 pct. That’s not a lot after the losses of the prior week. Now we have to watch to see where traders want to go next.

The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small cap index were up +0.83 pct and +1.25 pct after a week where they were down -5.85 pct, and -6.19 pct, respectively. The S&P500 and DJIA gained +1.13 pct and +1.34 pct after a week where they had dropped -4.41 pct and -4.21 pct, respectively. So, the recovery in US equity markets was not much of a bounce. When you look at the falling MA’s on the Weekly and Daily price charts, you might think of them as resistance to any recovery possibility.

The jury is obviously still out. But when you look at the evidence of the Hourly charts, it appears the US stocks hit the wall on Thursday and started south again on Friday.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MO	86.86	0.90	1.05%	4.05%	1.73%	1.92%	0.40%	2.39%	4.69%	19.26%
HPQ	40.11	-0.16	-0.40%	3.72%	-1.74%	-5.56%	-3.63%	1.19%	10.89%	22.44%
KO	47.57	0.42	0.89%	3.66%	0.66%	-0.61%	-2.08%	-2.74%	6.66%	12.19%
HON	47.23	-0.08	-0.17%	2.88%	-0.96%	1.42%	4.72%	11.18%	23.38%	14.44%
BA	89.51	0.62	0.70%	2.85%	-0.85%	-0.01%	0.38%	-0.69%	22.95%	21.35%
AXP	56.90	0.08	0.14%	2.63%	-1.93%	-2.72%	-5.73%	-4.90%	8.13%	6.95%
IBM	93.28	0.28	0.30%	2.62%	-4.55%	-6.36%	-4.10%	-0.62%	15.65%	15.13%
PFE	25.41	0.00	0.00%	2.50%	-0.82%	-3.90%	-3.35%	0.95%	-7.90%	-2.98%
MMM	74.73	0.21	0.28%	2.36%	-1.94%	0.12%	-4.51%	-4.88%	4.50%	4.08%
CAT	64.40	0.09	0.14%	2.16%	-4.25%	-1.87%	5.30%	1.58%	-4.34%	-9.80%
DD	51.14	0.32	0.63%	2.10%	-3.49%	0.00%	4.28%	9.04%	27.85%	26.87%
XOM	71.12	-0.73	-1.02%	1.59%	-5.45%	-5.75%	-4.03%	-5.80%	6.45%	20.71%
AA	33.20	0.71	2.19%	1.53%	-5.36%	1.72%	13.19%	6.72%	15.76%	15.24%
JPM	48.82	0.08	0.16%	1.31%	-4.33%	-4.14%	1.56%	4.41%	7.87%	18.93%
DIS	34.37	-0.32	-0.92%	1.24%	-2.19%	-2.61%	0.50%	-0.06%	16.19%	22.36%
GM	30.99	-0.07	-0.23%	1.21%	-9.54%	-8.31%	5.23%	4.77%	-3.00%	45.22%
MCD	44.15	0.51	1.17%	1.10%	-4.04%	-0.45%	0.64%	0.89%	17.73%	27.86%
MRK	44.61	0.25	0.56%	0.95%	3.89%	1.57%	1.34%	1.55%	8.65%	29.27%
C	50.33	-0.17	-0.34%	0.72%	-6.40%	-7.55%	-8.90%	-2.93%	3.30%	8.26%
JNJ	62.14	0.42	0.68%	0.31%	-3.13%	-5.50%	-6.42%	-5.78%	-2.28%	6.57%
T	36.55	0.04	0.11%	0.30%	-1.22%	-2.22%	4.58%	4.52%	16.59%	35.62%
UTX	64.50	-0.06	-0.09%	0.23%	-4.52%	-5.22%	2.69%	-0.34%	1.83%	12.37%
VZ	36.45	-0.03	-0.08%	-0.08%	-5.10%	-3.95%	-3.62%	3.23%	2.97%	8.55%
INTC	19.10	-0.13	-0.68%	-0.62%	-8.00%	-10.54%	-6.14%	-7.64%	-1.80%	-3.29%
AIG	69.07	-0.29	-0.42%	-0.68%	0.41%	-0.75%	-4.27%	-1.82%	7.52%	3.72%
WMT	47.42	-0.46	-0.96%	-0.82%	-4.34%	-1.84%	-0.27%	2.31%	1.50%	4.82%
HD	38.67	-0.13	-0.34%	-0.87%	-5.59%	-5.89%	-5.84%	-0.34%	12.81%	-4.85%
GE	34.32	-0.13	-0.38%	-1.58%	-2.22%	-3.97%	-9.61%	-2.69%	0.91%	3.37%
PG	62.16	-0.15	-0.24%	-1.58%	-4.10%	-3.76%	-3.69%	-2.71%	1.67%	1.17%
MSFT	27.28	-0.06	-0.22%	-1.73%	-5.61%	-6.74%	-8.64%	-7.21%	6.44%	1.04%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Dow 30 comments:

This week, Value Line report is on McDonald’s (MCD). It’s another one of those share buy-backs and dividend hike stories as management has decided to not use capex on their own stores. So it’s becoming a franchising play, which is fine until the franchisees stop cleaning washrooms and so on. I look at Taco Bell and a few others in New York City – the ones with rats running wild, and customers getting sick, and I wonder if serving your shareholders right is the way to go with fast food. I cannot for a second believe that company-owned stores would be the ones causing the problems in NYC with other franchises.

Just an opinion. I happen to eat at McDonald’s as much, I suppose, as the next person. I’d rather the stores be company-owned, that’s all.

As for looking at the stock, I noted that earnings and cash flow have been consistent growers – except during the last Bear market. I suppose the wealth effect hits even McDonald’s customers, although I confess I had never thought of that.

Also, should the company earn $2.60/share this year, the stock (at a current $44.15) is trading at a PE of 17, which is higher than the average annual PE since 2002.

If the company is now in the royalty business, I don’t know why I’d pay a multiple of 17 or more. I mean banks use Other People’s Money too, and we give them an average PE multiple of 12 or 13.

(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 9: next one is due Jun. 8)

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 22: next one is due Mar. 23)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 15: next one is due Mar. 16)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

---

General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Mar. 2: next one is due Jun. 1)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

---

Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

---

Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

---

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

---

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

---

Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Mar. 2: next one is due Jun. 1)

---

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

---

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Mar. 9: next one is due Jun. 8)

---

3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)

---

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Feb. 23: next one is due May 25)

---

Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

---

United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

---

Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

---

Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb. 9: next one is due May 11)

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Wrap up:

It turns out that I picked up a doozie of a cold at PDAC. I usually wash my hands at least a dozen times a day – and that’s when I’m meeting very few people. So, at PDAC you are shaking hands with hundreds of people a day and washing them less. Colds are bound to happen.

Slowed me down today. But, I persevered.

Such gorgeous weather too. I can smell Spring in the air.

Enjoy your day. Wherever you are in the world, whether it’s New York, New Toronto, New Delhi or Nassau, I have a feeling we are on the same page.

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