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March 15, 2007
Cramer confessional, Thur., Mar. 15, 2007, 8:54 AM
There is not a day go by that I fail to receive mail from at least one business school student stating that he or she is learning more about capital markets from my blog than in all their courses combined.
That’s what happens when their curriculum is a fraud, full of over-priced text books written by know-nothing professors who wouldn’t recognize a stock if it was sitting on the end of their nose.
A reader sent me this note earlier in the week, “Not sure you saw this video of Cramer in confessional mode of the "professional" juicing. You could write a book..forgot you already did!”
[btw, the original link was removed, but apparently this one still works]
Students, I urge you to watch this video and think about what the man is saying. Learn from it. It’s the way the market is – not some random walk down Wall Street.
Thank you Jim Cramer.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 15, 2007 08:54:32 AM | Category: Learning Center
Discourse
Correction:
"...because the SEC ..."
Posted by: Todd
at
March 15, 2007 11:05 AM [link]
With so much day to day manipulation with billions of dollars in play, how is the little guy supposed to trade / invest in the same market?
Those of us who don't do this professionally are at a serious disadvantage (and this has been pointed out over and over again by Bill in the past). I presume that a lot of the volatility we see in Precious Metals can be attributed to similar tactics.
Shame... I feel somewhat helpless!
Posted by: Fazeli
at
March 15, 2007 11:07 AM [link]
Markets move up and down according to many factors and human beings being what we are, we are always going to manipulate them through a myriad of ways!! Thanks Bill for bringing some of these shenanigans to our attention!
Now you see why Mom&Pop need all the help they can get. Please get well soon Bill.
Posted by: C.Note
at
March 15, 2007 11:29 AM [link]
Thats the REAL Cramer that I USED to like before he turned into a moron on his show.
PS If you needed Cramer to wise you up to what really goes on, you may be over your head. Its quite obvious from the tape.
Posted by: procol
at
March 15, 2007 11:34 AM [link]
In weak defense of business schools, I'm currently finishing up my MBA and throughout the program they practically ignored capital markets. Sure they teach a little bit on company valuation and financing, and reading financial statements to try and infer the financial health of a company. But as for actually teaching how to invest, it never happened and I think it leaves a big hole.
100% agree that the text books are overpriced, and more often than not useless (I've taken to not buying them unless absolutely required or marginally interesting). I think the worst offending course had $230 worth of book and course pack.
I wouldn't go so far as to say the profs are know-nothings, they're just stuck in an academic mind set which doesn't help the rest of us much in the real world. The curriculum could definitely use an update.
Posted by: proudPapa
at
March 15, 2007 11:44 AM [link]
I wouldn't fault an MBA for NOT teaching one how to invest or learn about capital markets, for that is not the focus on MBA programs.
Thanks Bill for reiterating to us that in order to be in the "game" we must be "wise as serpents" and not just gentle doves with a toolkit.
Posted by: heretic247
at
March 15, 2007 12:43 PM [link]
The profs who taught me undergrad biz at WLU and MBA courses at McMaster were excellent. I enjoyed and still value my biz school education every bit as much as my education to earn CMA/CA designations or the courses I took from the Cdn Securities Institute. The point I was making today is that (i) biz school has failed miserably in the field of capital markets, and (ii) they run a racket in selling over-priced texts that often are written by profs who "know nothing" (maybe that's too strong!) about the workings of capital markets. Most of the academic literature -- even the Efficient Market stuff written by experts -- is debunked every day by professional traders who need to trade successfully for a living. They laugh at that material. The stuff Cramer talks about in the video, unfortunately, is a much more accurate reflection of capital markets. I want you to know the truth so that I can help you. Sometimes I come on too strong in order to get my point across, so, please don't take it personally.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
March 15, 2007 12:48 PM [link]
No worries Bill, i wasn't offended and maybe my comment came across as more defensive than I wanted. I guess what I wanted to get across is similar to what Leisa mentioned, you can't fault business schools for failing to teach something they are not intending to teach. If they taught the wrong stuff, you definitely could, but like I said, they mostly ignore capital markets. The end result is that the public and even business students' education in regards to capital markets comes predominantly from the sell side.
Leisa, I totally agree that the goal of an MBA is not to teach trading, but instead on how to run a company. And in that regard, I can't complain. I've enjoyed my education greatly.
I just pop in here occasionally while at work, so sometimes my comments may be posted in haste :)
While I'm here, let me also express my deepest gratitude for the work you do Bill, as well as all the great contributors like you Leisa (Kaimu, g032, MarkM, etc.)
And Bill, what are you doing reading the comments?! Shouldn't you be resting?
Get well!
Posted by: proudPapa
at
March 15, 2007 1:07 PM [link]
Whilst I concur with the notion that markets are manipulated to some extent, this is nothing different to what has being going on since the stockmarket's inception. All that has changed is the 'scale' to reflect the size of the market. So whilst there can be 'manipulation on a daily basis and therefore non-random paths on a daily basis, the markets will ultimately head to where it wants to because it is greater than the sum of its parts.
That is why markets over time follow a random walk but not for the reasons perpetuated by the 'efficient market hypothesis' but for exactly the opposite. Life is nothing more that a game of probability determination where sometimes even holding four of a kind can be beaten, Not often but it happens more times than you would imagine...
To suggest that markets don't follow a random path implies to know the future.
Posted by: Leonardo
at
March 15, 2007 1:09 PM [link]
Leonardo,
Thank you for commenting. I believe that is your first and that you are in Italy, home of my Dad's parents (Caserta). When I am feeling better (and not just checking on mail occasionally before returning to bed), I will challenge the point you made.
The number of first-time commenters has really picked up in recent days, and I thank everybody for that. As I say, the market is "us".
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
March 15, 2007 1:26 PM [link]
Jim Rodgers has some interesting things to say about our economic future.http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL1470530620070314?src=031407_1316_DOUBLEFEATURE_mortgage_troubles
I think that these CDO's are sitting on people's balance sheets ready to blow up--because credit insurance is more expensive and/or there may be some mark to market issues. Additionally, you have the issue of rating agencies having to consider re-grading some of this stuff. Here's a potential exogenous shock to the financial system (I don't mean to sound like Jim Rogers, and let me assure you that I may have no idea about that which I'm talking about) but think about what happens if some of these marginal issues are downgraded from investment grade. Prices are going to drop like a rock and other bad things. I'm moving with Jim to Asia!
Here is a comment by Greenspan concerning gold today...
BOCA RATON, Fla., March 15 (Reuters) - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday that procedures for settling credit derivative swaps were so "archaic" that they posed a risk to market stability.
Greenspan was speaking to Futures Industry Association's annual conference, a venue whose participants are keenly interested in burgeoning derivatives trade that is used to disperse risks.
Answering questions from the audience, Greenspan played down the significance of gold prices as an inflation gauge anymore, saying they might be more important as an indicator of geopolitical developments.
Looking ahead, he said the U.S. economy faces a "seminal event" as a wave of Baby Boomer Americans, born after the Second World War, retire in increasing numbers.
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He said the economy was not prepared for the event and said successive political administrations had over-promised benefits to a point where the country faced a "serious ethical problem."
Posted by: onlineaces
at
March 15, 2007 3:22 PM [link]
Interesting how JJ can take an information session on hedge funds and mold it into a pump-up for RIMM ......which is what I really thought the 10 minute exercise was all about. Comments?
Posted by: TerryC
at
March 15, 2007 4:44 PM [link]
Now KRY has a new CFO.
March 15 (Reuters) - Canadian miner Crystallex International Corp. (KRY) said it would appoint Hemdat Sawh as chief financial officer, effective upon the departure of Dan Hamilton. Hamilton's role and responsibilities as Crystallex CFO will end on March 31, the companysaid in a statement.
Hamilton has agreed to provide consulting and transition services in April, it added. (Reporting by Aditi Samajpati in Bangalore)
Now, the CFO leaving on the heels of Deloitte stepping down....that cannot portend anything good.
zen_archer
Not sure who you are, but if you cannot be more civil in you commentary, then maybe you should just not comment. I follow this blog looking for informative and intelligent comment. Yours does not qualify.
Posted by: npmg
at
March 15, 2007 6:19 PM [link]
I urge you all to see Jim Grants interview at Bloomberg. He lays much of the blame for the blowup in subprime, at the doors of the Rating Industry (S&P, Fitch etc..) and is predicting potential problems with CDO's.
Posted by: BruceThomas
at
March 15, 2007 6:36 PM [link]
Merrill predicts recession and 30% drop in equities.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/15/AR2007031500784.html
Caserta? So are my parents! Actually right outside of there, a small town called Formicola (means ant - obviously a small town:) ) Lurking for a while, but learning so much. Thanks Bill and get better.
Posted by: rob d
at
March 15, 2007 10:06 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Greenspan comment:
"Greenspan played down the significance of gold prices as an inflation gauge anymore."
Well, he and his government pals have virtually eliminated all past indicators for inflation and money supply. CPI is nothing more than a "weighted fantasy" number and M3 no longer exists. If I didn't know better I would think they want us kept in the dark about inflation ...
Posted by: kaimu
at
March 15, 2007 11:50 PM [link]
Barrick Gold may bid for Newmont -- BusinessWeek
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reuters U.S. Company News
6:16 p.m. 03/15/2007
NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - Canada's Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest gold miner, may bid for No. 2 Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), BusinessWeek reported in its March 26 edition.
Citing "some pros," the magazine said Barrick would go after Newmont for its proven and probable reserves of about 95 million ounces of gold.
A deal would likely value Newmont in the "mid 50s," BusinessWeek said, citing pros.
Newmont closed on Thursday at $42.14, up 70 cents, on the New York Stock Exchange, while Barrick closed at C$33.03, up 63 cents, in Toronto. (Reporting by Nick Zieminski; editing by Andre Grenon; nick.zieminski@reuters.com; Reuters Messaging: nick.zieminski.reuters.com@reuters.net; +1 646 223 6162))
Long NEM
Posted by: Telestar3d
at
March 16, 2007 2:20 AM [link]
Beautiful place Caserta, and I hope you get to go from time to time. The whole region is truly magical.
Indeed it was the first time that I have posted on your blog but I've been following your writings for quite some time now. One of the few that I do regularly. So many thanks to you for the quality of your output.
Best wishes for a speedy recovery (I simpathise intirely as I too have suffered from severe chest infections) and look forward to your challenges!
Posted by: Leonardo
at
March 16, 2007 6:58 AM [link]
As long as FCB's keep buying, the ponzi scheme continues. I bought NEM below $ 40 per a trade on expire today, will use the profits to buy physical P.M.'s :)
Posted by: Rick45
at
March 16, 2007 11:44 AM [link]
speaking of the ratings "game," here is a solid read by Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=akpD71FSv.rE&refer=home
Posted by: Rick45
at
March 16, 2007 11:48 AM [link]
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Cramer: You can't foment. That's in violation ...(of SEC rules).
Host: Ferment ???
Cramer: You can't FOMENT. You can't create an impression by yourself that a stock's down. But you do it anyway because the DEC doesn't understand it.
Hilarious !
Cramer also says that the mechanics of the market are much more important than the fundamentals.
Cramer: "Who cares about fundamentals ?"
I saw this video earlier when it came out initially but it's worth watching over again as a reminder of how the market works.
Posted by: Todd
at
March 15, 2007 11:03 AM [link]