hello from germany,

i have a question regarding private equity.

where are the "exits" ? is private equity the new "flipper" in town ?

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/03/where-are-exits-private-equity.html

has anybody seen a larger exit via an ipo or a bigger buy from a strategic partner?

the buzz and rumors about possible bids from pe was almost the only source that pumped the market the last few month.

TSX announces global mining index

Details and launch expected second quarter

Tuesday, March 6, 2007
http://www.investmentexecutive.com/client/en/News/DetailNews.asp?id=38274&IdSection=148&cat=148&BImageCI=1

With many of the world’s leading mining experts in Toronto for the annual Prospector’s & Developers Association of Canada Conference (PDAC), TSX Group and Standard & Poor’s today announced plans to create the S&P/TSX global mining index.

“Our exchanges have become the world’s leading markets for raising equity capital for mining and as a result we attract numerous international mining participants,” said Richard Nadeau, senior vp, Toronto Stock Exchange. “There is great value for mining issuers in a TSX listing. Mining issuers that list here tap into deep capital pools and extensive mining expertise from analysts, professional advisors like lawyers and engineers, investment bankers, to investors.” He added, “the launch of the S&P/TSX global mining index further enhances our position as the global mining exchange.”

TSX Group’s exchanges are home to approximately 60% of the world’s public mining companies and Canada has the world’s largest mining analyst community that covers issuers on both TSX and TSX Venture Exchange.

Similar to the S&P/TSX global gold index but with a broader scope in terms of the types of miners to be included, the global mining index will track leading international mining issuers. The exposure to this index will help further recognize the value of listing on TSX. In addition to bringing additional liquidity to mining listed issuers, it is expected structured products will also be created to serve investors in the markets.

Further details and a list of issuers to be included in the new index will be released by Standard & Poor’s prior to an expected launch in June 2007.

“With commodity prices strong and increased interest in this asset class, real-time information on global mining issues is critical,” said Steve Rive, vp of Canadian index operations at Standard & Poor’s. “Building on the success so far of the S&P/TSX global gold index, we believe the S&P/TSX global mining index will be a broad representative of opportunities available in the global mining marketplace.”

Mining companies from around the globe continue to come to TSX Group exchanges. In 2006, a total of 112 new mining companies listed on the exchanges. In aggregate, these new listings represented $15 billion in market capitalization.

For those who have been waiting to get into the markets at better prices, the extreme volatility is going to offer excellent entry points. I am going to do the odd daytrades now and then and enter swing/position trades when the volatility hits extremes as it did last Thursday and this Monday.

hi lauriston,

speaking of volatility

On Monday, when the S&P 500 fell 0.94%, downside volume on the NYSE was 91.5% of total volume, implying panic selling on the part of investors. Yesterday, after the S&P 500's 1.55% rise, upside volume was 93.8% of total volume! Yes that's right, on Monday we had panic selling and then Tuesday we had panic buying.

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2007/03/talk_about_a_la.html

ALOHA !!

Sitting here in the jungles of Hawaii reading about "Jock and Jakes Excellent Adventure" sure makes me jealous! Way to go Bill that's what its all about ... SPREAD THE LOVE !!!

I have never been to PDAC but have a few friends there exhibiting. One is CONTINUUM RESOURCES which I have mentioned here before a couple months ago. They are one of my core "BUY AND HOLD" holdings.

CONTINUUM RESOURCES(CNU.V CUUEF US OTC). If you bought them on the "Panic Monday" this morning you would have had a 56% return. Low on Monday $0.50C high today $0.78C. A 28% rise today alone! Something big is up and I have a call in as I will report my findings later. Two of the biggest gold industry heavies own a large percentage of their stock ... AGNICO EAGLE and SPROTT ASSET, combined ownership is 35%.

You have to keep in mind when buying these small highly regarded and guarded companies that at any moment a news release or analyst or major miner will come in without warning and drive the stock price severely UP. Because shares are held by strong hands or have such small share/market cap this has a skyrocket effect. Waiting for that exact time when all your trading technicals are aligned with the stars in the heaven can lose you a 30% move in one day ... in one hour!

I will never forget the day a couple years ago when I was scouring the news releases on KITCO and Rob McEwen announced he would be CEO of a small Nevada comopany called US Gold. In a split second I moved to buy when the price opened at $0.35USD by time I bought my trade executed at $0.72USD and rising rapidly. A year later I sold out for $9.80USD. That's the power of ROB !!! Of course eventually investors realized that US Gold was still a junior explorer even with ROB and sold it off. Now its down to two things for US Gold ... merger news and drill results! DRILL RESULTS ??? OHHHH ... damn those pesky DRILL RESULTS !!! In the end a GOLD company has to come up with some GOLD ... ROB or not!!!

Enjoying the reports from PDAC and looking forward to Bill’s, Jake’s and Jock’s perceptions and outlooks.

Off to Arizona today . . . a couple of things to watch for tomorrow that could affect $USD and gold . . .Central Banks . . . European Central Bank (ECB) meets--expected rate increase . . . . . Bank of England (BOE) meets and unknown if they will hike . . . Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), although not as big as the other two, may announce increase also.

Good luck and good trading.

ALOHA !!

CONTINUUM RESOURCES(CNU.V CUUEF US OTC) ... TRADING HALT on pending news. Even with the halt they managed near 900,000 on volume! Sometimes these TRADING HALTS last a day or more ... sometimes not! 98% of the time these are based on good news ... and I know of no fundamental changes that would make this bad news ...

MORE TO COME ...

READ ON:
Market Regulation Services - Trading Halt - Continuum Resources Ltd - CNU
Wednesday March 7, 10:14 am ET

VANCOUVER, March 7 /CNW/ - The following issues have been halted by Market Regulation Services (RS):

Issuer Name: Continuum Resources Ltd
TSX-V Ticker Symbol: CNU
Time of Halt: 9:59 EST
Reason for Halt: Pending News

kaimu or anyone who can answer these questions,

Is there a benefit to directly trade CNU on TSX-V vs. CUUEF on US OTC?

CUUEF on Yahoo is CUUEF.PK and I don't like to trade on the Pink Sheets Electronic Quotation service. Besides Yahoo does not have any historical prices, time & sales or charts for CUUEF.PK. No Data. Same situation with my OptionsExpress account (a Cara 100 company). So, I'm thinking of opening an E-Trade Global Trading account. Their commissions are $20/trade. Foreign Exchange is also provided on E-Trade.

Any pros & cons would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

The markets are beginning to turn nicely, PDAC is in full swing, spring is coming so it's off to Havana for fine cigars, mohitos and some business.

This time around oil brings me back. The Cubans are giddy with excitment with their initial 5 billion barrels found offshore with more to come. Now the big question is will the Canadians get a sniff. We will soon find out. So far the Spanish, Indians and Norwegians have a foot in the door.

Horatio - take a look at Interactive Brokers - www.interactivebrokers.com - I've been with them over 1yr - no complaints, cheap commissions. Broad range of products available.

onlineaces - take a look at Interactive Brokers - www.interactivebrokers.com - I've been with them over 1yr - no complaints, cheap commissions. Broad range of products available.

Onlineaces,

funny to read your post...I had the exact same questions...perhaps Kaimu will chime in later.

Seems like CNU/CUUEF trades a lot more actively on the Canadian exchange than it does on OTC.

In the meantime, I found this site which has quotes and historical charts for CNU:CA.

http://tinyurl.com/32qm5u

Hope this helps

ALOHA !!

onlineaces ... The pinksheets generally offers US investors a door to Canadian stocks but some companies like Continuum do not have Level1 grade where you see bid/ask/volume/news. Pinksheets now offers two more premier market tiers the OTCQX.

Link: http://www.pinksheets.com/about/pr_030507.jsp

I do own pinksheets companies and have traded them on ETrade where bid and ask are shown. My experience is that eventually as these companies seek US exposure they will upgrade to higher levels or go to the AMEX. For instance, I first bought Northern Dynasty(NAK)when it was trading on the pinksheets under symbol NDMLF.PK. Obviously they made some changes and are now on the AMEX. Another example was SXR Uranium One which is still on the pinksheets only a higher level under the symbol SXRFF.PK. My guess is that SXR will eventually go on the AMEX as well.

ETrade has started a global market where you can trade on the Canadian and Australian exchange and four others. I have traded pinksheets companies on ETrade for years, current limit execution price is $9.99USD, but I also have other accounts and brokerages.

The times I have used the pinksheets I have not had problems. You would if you are a daytrader! I recommend buying CNU.V due to the better reporting and higher volumes, but if you cannot and want your foot in the door and intend to be a longer term hold then I'd buy the CUUEF.PK. The company will upgrade their market level, it just won't be today!

On US ADRs ... American Depository Receipts that trade in ratios. A different animal in ways but both take into account the monetary exchange rates. Not a perfect conversion rate 24/7 but close enough!

Re the short-term direction of gold, Mark Hulbert has this to say:

Gold timers' despair
Commentary: From contrarian standpoint, that's a bullish indicator
PrintE-mailDisable live quotesRSSDigg itDel.icio.usBy Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Mar 7, 2007

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) - A not-insignificant proportion of the gold timing newsletters I follow have thrown in the towel on the gold market, moving completely to cash or going short the gold market.
The gold timers' retreat from the gold market has been so pronounced that contrarians are now ready to entertain the idea that gold bullion (38099902 : Gold - Afternoon Fix (Source N M Rothschild)
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12:00am 12/30/1899

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380999020.00, 0.00, 0.0%) can actually mount a sizeable rally.
Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended exposure to the gold market among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday's close, the HGNSI stood at 0%, which means that the average gold timing newsletter now has no exposure to the gold market whatsoever.
This represents a huge rush to the exits on the part of the gold timing newsletters I monitor. As recently as February 16th, just 11 trading sessions earlier, the HGNSI stood at 75%.
To put the gold timers' bearish turn in perspective, consider the sentiment situation in the stock market. As I reported in my column Tuesday, the average recommended stock market exposure had dropped by nearly 40 percentage points from Monday, Feb. 26's level of 62.4% to Monday, March 5's level of 22.8%. This quick and sizeable bearish turn was a good sign for the stock market, I concluded. See March 6 column
On Tuesday, of course, the very next trading session, the stock market rose smartly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU : Dow Jones Industrial Average
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2:24pm 03/07/2007

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$INDU12,230.90, +23.31, +0.2%) gaining 157 points and the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP : Nasdaq Composite Index
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COMP2,382.13, -3.01, -0.1%) tacking on more than 44 points.
Notice carefully that there is even more despair among gold timers Wednesday than there was Monday night among stock market timers. That despair among the gold timers is being so tenaciously held, in fact, that Tuesday's 1.1% rise in the price of gold was unable to persuade any gold timers back into the bullish camp.
For all these reasons, I grade the current HGNSI as bullish for the gold market.
Before signing off, let me respond to the many e-mails I've received in recent days about the role contrarian analysis can play in judging a market's trend. I do not think that contrarian analysis tells us much about the primary trend. Instead, it helps us determine where we stand at any given time relative to that trend.
Insofar as contrarian analysis is helpful, in other words, it is as a short-term market timing tool.
I mention this to clear up confusion that has arisen whenever I conclude that contrarian analysis is bearish on gold. Inevitably I receive e-mails from investors who object on the grounds that gold's long-term trend is undeniably up.
But this objection misses the point.
Even if gold's long-term trend is up, and I happen to think it is, gold will not rise in a straight line along the way. At some points gold will get ahead of itself, relative to that trend, and at other points fall behind. The former points represent good times to lighten up, while the latter points are good times to invest more heavily.
And contrarian analysis can be a valuable tool in telling us which times are which.
A week or two ago, contrarian analysis said gold had gotten ahead of itself. It now says that gold is somewhat behind.

Bill and Joey,

Thanks for the insight into Khan Resources. Anyone have any comments about International Royalty Corp. (IRC.TO) They collet royalties on mining projects in various stages of development. They appear to be very diversified over several minerals, operators and countries.

Any insight is appreciated.

trying...
No info on IRC.TO but have you looked into RGLD?

Made $ with this royalty company in the last 6mo.

No position.

Hate to be a naked poster but I know Bill had been talking about Micron since it is in the RSI "accumulation zone." Caught this off Seeking Alpha which I highly recommend.

Micron: Problems in All Three Primary Markets
Posted on Mar 7th, 2007 with stocks: MU

Eric Savitz (Barron's) submits: Micron’s (MU) troubles continue. Daniel Amir, an analyst with W.R. Hambrecht, today trimmed his earnings estimates for the company, and advised investors to stay out of the way.

Amir says the company is dealing with problems in all three of its primary markets: NAND flash, DRAM and image sensors:

NAND: Price declines have “crushed” margins… he also says the company was “caught off guard with the Chinese New Year and had to dump flash components “at deep losses.” He also says Apple (AAPL) has reduced its NAND buys at Micron and moved to Hynix. “Micron had a very bleak quarter in its NAND business… the May quarter should not look more more promising either.”
Image sensors: Remains weak due to end market concerns. Checks also indicate “significant reduction of orders from Samsung.”
DRAM: Pricing weak due to Vista-related over-build.
Amir cut his estimates on the company to a loss of 7 cents a share from a profit of 2 cents for the February quarter, and to 42 cents a share from 57 cents for the August 2007 fiscal year.

Amir thinks the stock could decline to Micron’s book value, which is $10.50 a share. Today, the shares are off 15 cents at $11.56.

Thanks for the solid info, TcolemanUF. It was very helpful.

ALOHA !!

2nd_ave ... I agree.

tryingtogetby ... IRC not a pure royalty play like RGLD and not purely gold.

Okay ... Who watched 60 Minutes on TV last Sunday? I did not since I do not have TV out here, but I did read one of his speeches a couple months ago. The US Comptroller David Walker is warning of "US Financial Diaster". All well and good ... he should! Problem is nobody ever puts all the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle together so the American public can see it in the light of day. All he is pointing out are "symptoms"!! Its as if he's a doctor in the ER with a patient who has a gunshot wound to the head and is pointing out all the obvious symptoms ... "Hey look ... HE'S BLEEDING!" "Wow, look over here his pulse is weak!" "UH ... why did he just stop breathing?" At what point do they turn the patient over and see the giant whole in the back of his head with half his brains missing? In this case the patient is the USA !!!

Here is a link to the 60 Minutes website. Read about it, but what I notice most is the "comments section" below the text on the first page. Look at what the public believes the solution is. Everything from tax the rich to cut the funding to the Education Dept to stop paying politicians high salaries to tax loopholes for the NCAA to fraudulent billing for Medicare. These people are all simply pointing out "symptoms".

We are trying to print our way out of our destiny ... a Third World lifestyle!

Link: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/03/01/60minutes/main2528226.shtml

re: Micron: Problems in All Three Primary Markets

Note that W.R. Hambrecht were also the ones that initated coverage on MU with a BUY way back in Sept. when the stock was $17. Not too sure if they can be trusted.

*I have a small position in MU, bought it at $12 so am slightly in the red*

ALOHA !!

ON GOLD:
In the March 6 session on the TOCOM Goldman Suchs COVERED an absolutely whopping 7,878 short contracts to bring their net short position to 25,933 contracts. (reported by Adrian Douglas)

Hasn't had a net short position this low in over a year, so look for gold to go up soon. This typically signals some sort of POG positive event in the works during the short term.

CONTINUUM RESOURCES UPDATE
I still have no real facts and I heard a "rumor" that John Embry of Sprott Assets(owns over 19% of CNU)bought 600,000 shares before the trading halt today. RUMOR ... not verifiable, but there are some large blocks sitting on the ask at $0.80C. You can verify that if you have access to Level 2.

Here is a link to their website:
http://www.continuumresources.com/

I have been long CONTINUUM for over a year.

ALOHA !!

Your future US tax dollars at work ... If I apply for a loan will the government cosign for me? This is exactly why there should be a US Constitutional Amendment to separate Banks and State just like separation of Church and State ...

What sort of Enron con job is this?

READ ON:
Assuming government bailout protection, Moody's upgrades Morgan Chase

By Joseph N. DiStefano and Steven Bodzin
Bloomberg News Service
Saturday, March 3, 2007

JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of New York Co., and State Street Bank & Trust Co. gained higher credit ratings from Moody's Investors Service Inc., which said the U.S. government would back the banks if they faced default.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abohn9cD2fIw

ONT reports tomorrow...they are in Flash 8 used by Cisco TV

http://www.cisco.com/en/US/products/ps6682/products_user_guide_chapter09186a00807436fb.html

Lets see what they report!

Enjoy your posts Kaimu

Re: MU

analyst downgrades are contrarian signals, because as someone just pointed out, they say buy at the high, and only actually downgrade near the bottom. really. also, the only way to get to the bottom is during the worst news. think about it: by definition the low occurs when the most people are negative about a stock. for the bill cara method, you really need to ignore the analyst community, and make sure the company isn't broken..."the analysts can't be trusted." On the contrary, the analysts can be completely trusted to be completely wrong. (I have no MU position).

Tuesday several ST measures were at historical EXTREMES. While nothing is certain in life, that was about as good a setup as comes along on risk/reward so I scalped it for a quarter pont for my portfolio. Yesterday, when the bulls couldn't mount 1400 they left the building. Today it looks like they want to blow it past 1400 on the open and see what happens. I have no position.

Gold? I am leery of some "intervention" soon to try to change the nature of the charts. I have my position from Monday but am a little nervous here, frankly. Maybe I just remember the last PDAC.

Good luck all.

Hi guys

BZP

Any oil-gas experts with a view on these drill results off Peru. Are they significant enough to warrant more upside? It closed just under $6 up nearly 20% on 1.36 mln on AMEX.

Thank you

Re: CNU.V

Kaimu and others,

CNW just reported that 15,798,750 warrants were exercised at a price of $.30 in a private placement for the company. Perhaps that was the reason for the halt in trading?