After Monday's "save" I put protection on against all my longs in the form of SPY and IWM puts. Like I told our friend "stockman", I will date this market but have no intention of marrying it at this point.

Be safe out there.

In 1990-1992 I learned a painful lesson: that government officials are as eager to acknowledge that a recession is (1) looming or (2) here as they are to have a root canal without the benefit of anesthesia.

I do like Bernanke, and know that he inherited a mess. He seems to be a man of deep intelligence, competence and grace and eager to talk about some of the hard issues (taxes, Medicare, social security). He will only be able to placate the markets--which is acting like a colicky baby of late--for so much longer.

2nd. try. (sorry if a double post)

here is a good take on bernanke

Inflation and interest rate concerns on the eve of Ben's big show

http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2007/03/inflation-and-interest-rate-concerns-on.html

hello from germany,

Grim Reality / PIMCO´s Bill Gross

on housing, fed, economy etc.

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

I can't stand Helicopter Ben. He is the antithesis of Paul Volcker who had the nerve to follow the correct course of action which hurt in the short term, but corrected the problems in the long term.

Bernanke wants to print money ad infinitum, debasing MY/OUR US Dollar and possibly monitizing our debt (in all likelihood). He and Paulson can take their policies and put them where the sun doesn't shine.

Leisa,

This article agrees w/you...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dont-expect-another-bernanke-inspired-breakout/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F2DB67A%2D8A02%2D4E9D%2DA68D%2DB9CB172B0C15%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

The Beazer news is just the next shoe to fall in this credit mess. And it isn't like this wasn't happening already. KB Home, to cite just one example, was caught red handed doing exactly the same thing Beazer now stands accused.

http://www.hud.gov/news/release.cfm?content=pr05-093.cfm

Of course, that was way back in July of '05, when housing prices were still going up, up, up and no one really cared to seriously consider the consequences of putting so many people into loans they could not afford.

Talk about your paradigm shifts!

Incidentally, it was only a few short months after that July 2005 settlement with HUD that KB Home sold its mortgage business to Countrywide and formed a 50/50 joint venture with same. CW assumed management of the mortgage business. I seriously doubt that the piddly HUD fine and the shuffling of chairs that followed changed KB Home's behavior one iota.

Obviously, I remain short KBH.

FWIW, Centex also made a timely sale of its sub-prime business early last year. And their CFO departed soon afterward.

Timing, it seems, is everything.

MarkM, you seem to be tuned into this market better than anyone recently.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Indications

Durable goods came in very weak.

On my fidelity alerts I have 20ema crossing alerts for a range of etfs. Silver went above on the opening, and right next was xlf crossing below. Wow that was fast.

n2son-

When I screw up (and those will come too) I will tell people that news as well. I always have. My first year with Bill was the proverbial House of Pain and I shared it in these pages.

Overseas markets tonight will not like this number at all. Extremely weak.

We have to start seriously looking at the 4 Year Low scenarios, i.e. Cyclical Bear, and making trading plans.

Umm, my miners, thanks to bill of course, are doing ok..so far. The low correlation approach to asset allocation is working well, again so far, and for the little guy in an ira I am thankful that I have access to etfs: gld and dba have helped. Another new product that I have not tried is the currency long-short etf. 50% cash. I hope I use it wisely.

I know only too well, Mark. I've had my own heaping helping of pain in the past and appreciate you sharing your ups and downs. I try to do the same. That's how we all learn to do better in the future.

I'm glad your commenting here regularly again.

My own pain? I was so sure that the banks would roll over last Sept - Dec. All of those old saws are founded in pain...patience is one that I hope to cultivate.

Given that I had done so much research on MTG, I bought some Sep 60 Puts. I also bought some Oct 105 puts on RTH (Vix was slumbering). I had sworn of options some time ago, but....maybe it will be different this time.

Hmmmm. The FBI, HUD, IRS, and their mothers have parachuted into Beazer homes headquarters and likely all the other builder/financiers.

This reaction from the most incompetent administration ever experienced by any people in history. WHAT could this mean?

1. Faced with the idiotic failures of the past (See Iraq, Katrina, Abu Graib, Gitmo, etc. etc. etc.)the admin sees the problem inherent with under-reaction and decides to "Surge" on this problem to demonstrate their concern for the average American citizen's welfare.

2. They have been so lax for so long that the abuses and frauds are beyond reason and it's so obvious that overreaction is a must. The shit has hit the fan and if they don't assault this problem aggressively then this could be the last shovel of BS needed to overflow the sideboards, break the axle and send the frame to the road.

Any guesses?

GRZ trading halted.. KRY suddenly moves up .05
Any ideas, guesses?

KRY up .32 now..

Just like said earlier about dating a stock but not having to marry, i like to apply that same thinking to an anticipated scenario. The hard part is keeping it simple AND low stress.

JogyP

GRZ receives Environmental approval and construction permit. GRZ halted, but KRY reacting in anticipation.

NYUgrad must have gone out to lunch and come back!

very funny Leisa! I actually ordered lunch for delivery today. No comment on the GRZ permit. Just a little perturbed they got it before the "other" company.

I have to agree with g034 on Bernanke. He may be smart and amiable fellow, but Volcker had the spine to do what was necessary. Bernanke's primary concern, it seems, is to not offend anyone and hope that things just work themselves out.

Honestly, the political leadership in this country could not possibly be any weaker.

KRY has gone rather crazy this morning. Never seen it rise so far so fast. closed at 3.05, hit 3.80, up 20% . No news that I can find ... other than FT writing yesterday (morning) that a mutual fund, Jenison Natural Resources, is acquiring the stock.

re: KRY...
Fabrice Taylor article from yesterday's Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070327.RVOX27/TPStory/?query=crystallcccccccccccex+

Bill,

Regarding yesterday's remark about Firefox browser. The page width is forced to expand when users post long URLs in the comments (see onlineaces' comment above). The only way to avoid this, that I know of, is for users to insert a space in the middle of the link to break it up (and cause the browser to wrap it).

I've seen many blogs use http://tinyurl.com/ to create aliases for long links.

There's also a Firefox extension users can install:

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/2021

Best,
Doug

VZ permit for GRZ. (Initial news site unable to copy as that program does not allow) I found the attached elsewhere a few minutes ago.

http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/March2007/28/c7512.html

Jock, GRZ which now has the green light to mine in VZ, is adjacent to the Las Cristinas property.

This now debunks all the propoganda that VZ will not allow private sector to mine.

http://tinyurl.com/2nhd49

"Never seen it rise so far so fast."

Jock, how long have you been following KRY? This is par for the course, amigo.

ALOHA !!

I have to agree with g034 ... Ben is just a hired hand saying what his puppet masters tell him to say just like Greenspan. You guys forget that the Federal Reserve Bank is a "privately held bank". Look at the members list. It is a Whos Who of BIG Banks and sitting right at the top is Goldman Suchs ... what a criminal coincidence!!! Of course these BIG Banks, just like Ben will be immune from prosecution because they are acting as "agents" for the US government! I have to ask ... WHY DO WE EVEN NEED A CENTRAL BANK? It is unconstitutional anyway ... Why can't the US Treasury control our nation's money supply?

The US taxpayer will pay the price for any crashes anyway so it doesn't matter if the FED screws up or the US Tresury does! In the end I just think it is plain evil for a bunch of elite private citizens and their families to be in control of our money. I guarantee you they will act in their own best interest every time! I also guarantee you that the US citizens will be the LAST to know what hit them in the end ...

No Leisa, I share none of your respect for Ben and I have a great deal less for Alan! If our Founding Fathers were still alive they would have shot both of them for HIGH TREASON!

Thanks to all for the info on KRY via GRZ permitting.

Interestingly enough there was a retort this morning to Fabrice Taylor's posted yesterday.

Dispelling the Myths Surrounding Yet Another Crystallex Attack
Seeking Alpha - New York,NY,USA
Todd MacSween submits: I suspect that the Globe & Mail's Fabrice Taylor's
report on Crystallex (KRY) was simply another negative spin to a great
investment. ...

Doug11,

Thanks! Just tried the Firefox extension you suggested. It works.

number2son --

I've been following KRY for a couple of years, thank you. It hasn't seen such a wide daily range since June of last year.

Here is URL to Seeking Alpha article on Crystallex
http://gold.seekingalpha.com/article/30912

broker etf has gone below 20ema

does the firefox add on above wrap links and change the screen to keep comments from going off the screen?

Jasper,

Cannot speak to 'wrap links' but it definitely keeps comments from going of the screen. Only side effect I see is that the right green margin line is missing, small potatoes. And it was EASY to effect.

To my surprise, the immediate market reaction to Bernanke's testimony breaks the long streak of bullish melt-ups. The prepared remarks sound very much like a student's muddled essay (on the one hand...on the other) without full admission of the obvious: "I'm in a box here."

Despite all, SPY seems to have held and bounced off 10d/20d EMAs for now (and keeps some gains from last Wed.'s boost). I guess the test of 1410/1411 suppor will have to wait for another day.

JML

This morning's eye on XLF.

FWIW, I noticed there was one transaction of 1000 June strike 35 puts on XLF earlier this morning.

Put me in Leisa's camp on this. I know people who know Bernanke and all say he is quite decent and honorable. I do not know him myself.

I think he is in a hell of a box here not of his making. There's very little he can do.

Right on cue...feels like end of Qtr mark-ups beginning here.

Treasury yields reversing too...We may not know the truth on what really worries Bernanke about the box the Fed is in, but we certainly know what's on the mind of the market about what the box prevents, and hence, what it enables!

Uh oh ... did Uncle Ben take the PPT out for a long lunch or something, seems like they knocked off a little early today.

t4k

Take with a grain of salt, but there has apparently been a leak from Russian military intelligence to a journalist that US plans to attack Iran on April 6th (Easter):

http://www.atlanticfreepress.com/content/view/1251/32/

This would explain the Iranians taking hostages as a defensive move.

Republicans are in a deep hole with multiple scandals blowing up and Iraq going down the drain. Attack on Iran makes sense from a Machiavellian angle.

Watch the date.

ALOHA !!

Moab add to that this info on US Prisons built by Halliburton and sub KBR. Some 800 prisons in all States controlled by FEMA. All empty, for now! Are these for terrorists or patiots?

Here are the locations of the prisons. Perhaps one is near you ...
Link: http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/2004/FEMA-Concentration-Camps3sep04.htm

Look at all the "executive orders" prepared waiting for an "emergency" ... Very suspect ...

I find it odd that with all the over crowded conditions that exist at State and Fed prisons that these prisons sit idly by. There are two prisons here in Hawaii over on Oahu.

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK !!

Anyone get in and out of aapl. I had posted several weeks ago regarding a possible move with the next OS. And it has moved quite a bit since then. Ended up buying a new lenovo x60 rather than a mac. as i prepare to leave 9-5 life behind forever, i needed a business tool that worked with majority of my clients. I believe Dell was upgraded recently. I would not be suprised if dell dropped from here.

KRY made an "announcement" which is no announcement,

"Crystallex is aware that Gold Reserve Inc (GRZ) today announced that its Brisas Project had been awarded the Environmental Approval and Construction Permit from the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources ("MARN").

Commenting on the news, Gordon Thompson, Crystallex President and CEO stated, "The awarding of the Brisas environmental permit is a clear signal that Venezuela is fulfilling its promise to advance mining projects. Crystallex is in the final stages of environmental permitting for the Las Cristinas project and looks forward to the timely conclusion of the permitting process at MARN."

They've been in the final stages for some time now.

Kaimu -

I'd heard about these prisons. Didn't realize there were 800! I can't fathom what kind of emergency would require that kind of capacity besides internment of ethnic groups (WWII style) or ethnic cleansing.

Prison building and operation is also a lucrative business for politically connected cronies.

Jock, I stand emphatically corrected. I've never seen this type of upside action.

In the past, the surprise was always to the downside. <8)

Looks like the PPT made it back from lunch, prob'ly all liquored up too.

ALOHA !!

Moab ... I have a surfing pal who lives in Honolulu and he has verified that the prison next to the crematorium does exist and is empty. I plan to fly over to Honolulu tomorrow and take a drive out to Barbers Point. Here on the Big Island there is a big military training base up near Mauna Kea off Saddle Road. I have been up there and seen the M1 tanks running manuevers there. I have not seen any prison there. I'll have to ride up and see on my way to Kona next time.

You can bet on one thing ... none of these prisons were built to hold HB&B and politicians!

Yep, the PPT is hammered alright.

moab wrote . . "I can't fathom what kind of emergency would require that kind of capacity" . . .

Not to get into a big discussion and with absolutely no politics in mind, the following immediately comes to mind.

Medical quarantine due to very serious & extensive disease outbreak like avian influenza A (H5N1) virus.

Result of bio-terror attack or dirty bomb that makes present housing uninhabitable.

Itulip has an excellent series of interviews with Michael Hudson, an expert on finance. He has quite a resume.

Part III seems especially insightful and prescient. I am planning on ponying up for a subscription to see the whole thing. This summary of part III of the interview is very interesting:

1. Credit derivatives are the most likely cause of a future financial system crash.
2. No one can hedge the risks posed by asset deflation except by selling inflated assets.
3. October 1987 is the model for the next financial crash.
4. The larger the debt, the bigger the debt deflation. Expect a long, slow economic crash.
5. The U.S. will not repay its foreign debt.
6. Hyperinflation of the dollar, if it happens, will be a political and not an economic or monetary event.
7. Since the time of the South Sea bubble, financial bubbles have been created by governments in order for governments to dispose of public debt.
8. The U.S. government wants to exchange social security claims for stocks so that stocks can be inflated and then allowed to crash, to wipe out the entitlement liability.
9. Most corporate balance sheet growth over the past few years is fictitious capital, what used to be called 'watered costs'.
10. The U.S. corp. sector is "fragile" due to excessive use of debt and leverage for the past several years.
11. There will be a huge asset grab and reimbursement.
12. Hardly any money is spent on goods and services, rather, 99.9% of monetary payments are spent in assets, so the health of the FIRE economy is more relevant from a monetary standpoint.
13. Initially there will be mass defaults on mortgages and losses of houses to people with ready cash.
14. Later banks will allow home owners to stay in their houses, payments owed will be added on to the mortgages, and debt will go up without any money changing hands.
15. US housing debt will mimic the 1970s Brazilian compound interest curve.

Seamus -

Good point. Didn't think of that immediately.

Seriously, someone got a look at tomorrow's US GDP and/or unemployment claims numbers.

Last Wednesday's FED rally was erased today. I was expecting markets to hold at 10 day SMAs today; all were taken out except on MDY, and $DJT took out the 20 dma. Setup for end of Q1 rally the next couple days?

t4k

n2son: wish i had gone ahead with that straddle on KRY-hope things worked out well for you.

ALOHA !!

Seamus ... yes good point except for why would the US government want to run the risk of infecting military personnel with bird flu? Most all of these prisons are either on a military base or next to one! Besides what ever happened to the flu vaccine TamiFlu? I think that would be easier and cheaper than transporting sick people. Isn't prevention better? Seems government would want to preserve their tax revenues!

Bio hazard or nuclear dirty bomb I doubt the government commits to such a large scale evacuation of contaminated civilians, especially with no adequate medical facilites at these prisons. The cost and risk would be quite high. Plus if it were a "housing issue" then why have a fence with razor wire and guards? Why are these prisons just on military bases?

Kaimu -- Don't want to get in a long discussion--don't know about the razor wire and guards--but I do know there are plans for quarantines due to medical (let's call them) challenges.

I agree 100% with prevention and follow the medical field for vaccines and research on such. GSK has a number of vaccines and a couple of small upstarts like VICL (bird flu) and EBS (anthrax) have or are working on preventive vaccines. (No positions)

When people are quarantined they won't like it especially Americans where we are use to freely traveling. The guards, law enforcement, emergency personnel and medical personnel are first on the list for vaccinations if they haven't had them already. They are first so they can perform their various functions with contaminated locations and people. No matter whether it's a city or a quarantine camp.

Reference quarantine, I checked the CDC on Avian flu and they had a reference link to a quarantine executive order--

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/04/20050401-6.html

Lastly, the government correctly received justifiable criticism about not only their response, but their lack of preparation including housing for disastrous events like Katrina. I would like to think it's possible this may be better preparation in lieu of stacking people in places like the Superdome.

My response was simply to list one possible use of the facilities other than prisons in response to Moab's post. If they use abandoned or decommissioned bases all the better. It's better than going out and purchasing property (probably from political contributors or HB&B) with taxpayer's money.

Enough--have a great day out there!

Mideast allies are abandoning the US:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/3/28/163434/301

King of Saudi Arabia comes out against the occupation of Iraq. UAE does not want to be involved in any attack on Iran. Further evidence that something is going down soon, IMO.

Living in a small city in rural Canada we are isolated from the extreme highs and lows of the economy, mostly plugging along just off the bottom. Over past few months I have been reading lots about a possible recession,or worse a depression all the time thinking how far could we fall! and maybe we have landed and just don't see it, but today I saw my "bell cow" while in a line at my local market the person in front of me purchased lottery tickets with a Credit Card. Next to common sense, debt management is our most effective tool we have.

GO ARU!
Brian

Tomorrow they vote on the new Democrat budget proposal for Pay-go Budget plans. I am not an economist but it seems that Pay-go tries to instill a limited quantity of money. You want more money for defense? well go get it from here! no more print at will. But i could be wrong. Anyone care to educate me on this? My initial read tells me that it will be DIFFICULT to stop the behavior of the printing press and "they" will find a way around it. possibly in the form of taxes. And wouldn't an ideal Pay-Go budget stunt economic growth? But I would prefer slow to no growth, in exchange for what America used to be when i first migrated here.

Here are my links that I started reading once i got home.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PAYGO
http://tinyurl.com/2v2a3k
http://tinyurl.com/yxozfq

On another note, Members of the House Financial Services Committee approved a bill on Wednesday that would give shareholders of U.S. public companies a non-binding vote about the pay and perks enjoyed by top corporate officers.

http://tinyurl.com/2efp2a

forgot to include this NYT link
http://tinyurl.com/ypuhsv

Hello. This is my first comment here, been reading for a while. I think that this is the real "No Spin Zone". I appreciate everyones' contributions.

Has anyone been looking at Amgen (AMGN)? The stock is at a 52 week low of 55.72 with a high during the year of 77. The company has had a string of bad news within the last few months. Still, there is no comparison to the snafu that Merck had with Vioxx and that stock is up around 50% since "05.

I believe that the stock deserves a close look based on how solid the company has been. And, according to the RSI it's in the buy zone.

RSI 7- daily 15.1, weekly 11.1, monthly 27.2

This is a link to its competitors. I think that the numbers are strong for the price.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=DNA

Kaimu:

Checking your link and list, Beckley, WV is not a military base, it is a Federal Correctional Institution that did and does indeed house some Washington politicians, especially those that did not have the right connections for granting special status to gain incarceration in the Destin, FL country club facilities.

Most convicted of a Federal crime in the DC area or inside the ‘Beltway’ are residing there.

ALOHA !!

I have come to accept one of the most simplistic yet profound monetary rules on Earth ...

"Government is only as honest as its money ..."

To me everything else including social equity and common human decency revolves around that one universal monetary rule.

As I survey the World I see that there are not any really honest governments left ...

Diversify your portfolio with Hemisphere Gold, Inc. (HPGI)

www.hemispheregold.com

Investor Relations: Call 888-548-8444

ir@hemispheregold.com