could be a breakout for gold if the fed will be soft.

and if not the breakout is delayed until the next meeting.... :-)

here is a rather shocking report about the bubble in spain.

bubble world tour / spain ready to bust ?

when you read this it looks like you can eliminate the questionmark from the headline.......

here just one highlight
Property magnate Fernando Martin, the former Real Madrid soccer chairman, and Barcelona-based Promociones Habitat SA are paying five times more to borrow than U.S. developers such as Centex Corp.

Even UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, which was bankrupt last year, pays a lower risk premium on its loans.

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

the us isn´t alone......

Mark Hulbert with another contrarian commentary: the skepticism of the average newsletter may portend new highs before irrational exuberance kicks in again and the market sells off. In line with Bill's "commencement of the final rally comment" today. Guess I'll have to rethink my short posture for now. Link below:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/contrarians-see-signs-stock-market/story.aspx?guid=%7BBE24312F%2DDA77%2D41C3%2D80B1%2DADD48036B652%7D

Bill are you saying this is the final run for precious metals or just the final of this leg?
Thanks,
Tom

Bill, I definitely remember your 750 gold call in January. Ditto your call re: SNDK -- before it occurred.

Thank you!

There is a March 16 article on Financial Sense stating that gold is pretty much fully controlled by the CBs and that they use technical indicators to lure people. It also discusses how the CBs treat the major markets, oil and gold all linked together.

I personally don't believe everything is manipulated, but just pay attention. If we are to believe this and accept that every major broker does what JC states in his video, then what chance do we have?

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/deepcaster/2007/0316.html

"Today, most indicators point to major moves coming soon in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the Major Equities Markets.

“Lure” or Pretext?
In determining how to play these moves it is well to remember that The Cartel quite apparently likes to use (we reiterate) technical patterns (e.g. Fibonacci retracement levels, Head & Shoulders, etc.) as “lures” to lure in precious metals and strategic commodities longs and then to take them down. Longs in these circumstances are literally the hens led into the slaughterhouse by technical “lures.”

Similarly, however, The Cartel also uses such Technical Patterns as pretexts for their Interventions to create Plausible Deniability for their Interventions."

Bill, I'm a new poster. I have a question to you or the board:

You said there will be a melt up in stocks and precious metals, and then rotation out. Once the melt up occurs, where will money rotate to?

Thank you Bill.

Bill,

Just for clarification, do I have this right: pm..as well as commodities in general .. bull mkt has longterm legs but on an intermediate basis gold will spike and sell off. However, all bets off on the secular bull in pm continuing if spike is too high which could result with oversupply, or demand beaten down in emerging countries due to high price. Is this a fair recap?

The "new me" so to speak is a little reluctant to enter the under three dollar stocks. But i've been looking at western goldfields. Is the stock recently being pushed up by momentum players and entry can be particularly tricky? Comments anyone?

I love the freshness in your guidance. But sometimes I get confused by what appears to be a suggestion that a major sell off is just a matter of days away. Thanks Bill!

In the "Financial Economy" it seems like it's all about the Banks and Brokers, n'est-ce pas? BKX 114 and XBD 235 as key levels.

Coming into today, 7% of SPX stocks oversold by stochastics, 80% above the 10 day average, and Fib retrace of about 50% of the decline (a move to about 1424 would be around .618)...

I would just wonder about a contratrend rally in the dollar, crimping equities and metals. Dollar/yen still looks to be the driver from my seat.

That's one amateur's view...of this very dirty game.

Thanks, Bill, for those thoughts. You have what I'd a well-tempered, "strategic imagination" for markets. It helps stretch the mind and prepare to react - whether events unfold exactly as expected or not.

I have been reading this wonderful blog for a while now.
If you have even an inkling of doubt as to the accuracy of Bill's view, I suggest re-reading all of the entries from early January on.

Bill's crystal ball is clear, shiny and above all, atomic clock-like accurate.

Now, if we can get him to apply this lazer like focus on his rest and health we will all be happy and his lungs will be as clear as his crystal ball.

Please take care Bill.

Bill -

Interesting call on the markets. You seem to be calling for a repeat of the 70's bull in gold where gold had a vicious correction in the middle of its bull run before rallying to all-time highs.

I'm wondering why you think small and mid cap techs will outperform going forward, as opposed to large caps that have large international operations.

craig,
I'm quite impressed with Bill. He leads, no doubt about it. Even with re to cramer...the mouth that roared, i love it!

I just bought a position in SUN. RSI is not in the accumulation zone, but looks to be much better value than its peers..like VLO. Imperssive positive divergence on rsi and price on weekly chart. And, Bill gives me a lot of confidence that his cara 100's are quality.

Rotation was asked about above. This is what I try to focus on, regardless of mkt health of which I am a very poor prognosticator...thus why I am finding Bill to be like an oasis of sanity. Back to rotation. I look at mutlple roc periods with a risk adjusted alpha measurement. Commodities/natural resources/basic materials; telecom; and asia have been strong and are showing current leadership. I use both etfs and stocks. One stock not on cara's 100: CNQ....a canadian oil and gas explorer. I'm only 30% equity exposed. I fear missing oppotunity but my fear of missed/loss money is greater. Holding onto this much cash is like an emotional roller coaster.

Interesting announcement by Chinese Central Bank Gov. Zhou yesterday: "China will not accumulate more foreign reserves" and "China to cut small piece of reserve for new forex management agency."

Before the Fed this a.m., interesting to see HL break thru resistance to new high and then retreat back under resistance. HL divergence with SLW continues. Long-both.

Also USU thru recent Feb high and now taking step back. Long USU.

Going to hit the gym before fed announcement. Good luck!

Here is my handy list of ETFs:

Short/Bear Funds (Allows you to short in IRA/401K accounts)

PSQ - Short QQQ Inverse of the NASDAQ-100
SH - Short S&P500 Inverse of the S&P 500
DOG - Short Dow30 Inverse of the DJIA
MYY - Short MidCap400 Inverse of the S&P Mid Cap 400

2x Margin Built In (Allows you to leverage IRA/401K)

QLD - Double the NASDAQ-100
SSO - Double the S&P 500
DDM - Double the DJIA
MVV - Double the S&P MidCap 400

QID - Double the inverse of the NASDAQ-100
SDS - Double the inverse of the S&P 500
DXD - Double the inverse of the DJIA
MZZ - Double the inverse of the S&P MidCap 400

Countries (Allows you to invest in other economies)

EWJ - Japan
EWT - Taiwan
EWH - Hong Kong
EWB - Brazil
EWU - UK
EWW - Mexico
EWM - Malaysia
EWS - Singapore
EWC - Canada
EWY - South Korea
EWP - Spain
EWA - Australia
EWP - Pacific ex. Japan
EWG - Germany
EWI - Italy
EWL - Switzerland
EWQ - France
EWD - Sweden
EWK - Belgium
EWO - Austria
EWN - Netherlands

Stock Market Sector Funds (Sector Baskets)

OIH - Oil Services Sector
XLE - Oil Sector
XLI - Industrial Sector
IGE - Natural Resources Sector
IYR - US Real Estate Sector
XLU - Utility Sector
SMH - Semiconductor Sector
XLF - Financial Sector
RTH - Retail Sector
TTH - Telecom Sector
WMH - Wireless Sector
SWH - Software Sector
XLK - Technology Sector
HHH - Internet Sector
XLB - Materials Sector
XLY - Consumer Discretionary Sector
PPH - Pharmaceuticals Sector
XLV - Health Care Sector
IGN - Networking Sector
BBH - Biotech Sector

Bond Funds

SHY - 1-3 yr treasury bond
IEF - 7-10 yr treasury bond
TLT - 20+ yr treasury bond
LQD - corporate bond

Commodities

GLD - Gold
SLV - Silver
USO - Oil

Currencies

FXA - Rydex CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF
FXB - Rydex CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling ETF
FXC - Rydex CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust ETF
FXE - Euro Currency Trust ETF
FXF - Rydex CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust ETF
FXM - Mexican Peso Trust ETF
FXS - Rydex CurrencyShares Swedish Krona Trust ETF

Standard Index Funds

QQQQ - NDX 100
SPY - SP500
DIA - Dow Jones Industrials
MDY - SP Mid Cap 400
IWM - Russell 2000

I feel silly asking questions when Bill needs to focus on his body. We have to take care of our body and our spiritual health. Pilot is only as good as the ship. Personally, I have my own struggles. I am learning that the body and mind respects good food, routine, exercise, and just the right amount of stress. New behavior patterns are not easy to change, but just one step in a different direction can lead to future and wonderful changes.

St.ElwaysFire,

"You said there will be a melt up in stocks and precious metals, and then rotation out. Once the melt up occurs, where will money rotate to? ".

My guess is that the smart money will use any gains to pay down debt and/or park surpluses in money funds and wait for the blow-off.

Bill. I retired very young. People told be I would get bored. My advice is to stay retired and look after your health. I am in the best shape of my life and get to do what I want when I want. I am having a blast. No restrictions or deadlines. Try it, you will like it.

I think people have to realize that Bill does this because he loves it. There's no other reason for a single man to put so much effort into teaching and disseminating information. He loves it, so this is not a matter of him not knowing how to stay retired so he can do the "other things he loves". (This is all just my opinion of course).

The issue is that Bill's health has been suspiciously variable these past few months (he keeps us up to date). The potential link between the melanomas and his lungs should be explored as he himself hinted.

I wish you a speedy recovery so that you can make your way to the Bahamas, and at least enjoy great weather as you blog.

Bill,
If you can retire and do what you want, oh say in the Bahamas, then you should do what makes you happy as soon as possible. Assuming Mrs. Cara has the same plan....

They have the internet in the Bahamas right?
Surely warm salt air must be better than even the finest clean cold Canadian air, especially if you prefer the Bahamian variety.

It's a shame to waste a rarity like money, but a sin to waste time, the rarest of all.

My wife had a few melanomas and the initial Dr. freaked out and had us spinning. He was a brilliant plastics man and carved them out with great skill but psychology was not his forte.

The oncologist was much calmer and reassured us all was well after x-rays from stem to stern and a complete check-up.

A positive attitude and good chest x-rays will go a long way toward a warm Bahamian outcome, and that is the thought I'm maintaining about this.
I know others are visualizing this too.

20 years later my wife is happy (she tells me this anyway...) and healthy with no relapses. She does get regular check-ups with a dermatologist and is vigilant about her skin and sun exposure.

We can afford to be negative on markets, not so with our being. I urge all to be positive, seek happiness.

Hello,

Anyone have some ideas to why there is a disconnect between the gold bullion price and the PM miners?

Particularly, any comments on why Alamos Gold has taken such a beating even though they increased their reported reserve?

Thanks!

Dave,

I've noticed the plunge as well and hold some AGI. Digging through their website and financials there's absolutely nothing to indicate why it's tanking, so is this a buying opportunity? That's what I asked a week or two ago when it plunged 6% in a day on heavy volume when all other miners were green. And still no news... Any chance this one got interviewed at PDAC?

jasper - HERE, HERE ... You really can build good health one step at a time. For example, there are lots of foods you like that are good for you, and others that aren't. If you gradually angle youself to the good side, cutting out the bad stuff, it starts to make a great difference.

with exercise, just get started! If you've gone to seed, a briks 1/2 walk every other day, then every day. Later, you'll probably want to start muscle work. I use dumbbells while watching the dumbbells on TV! (actually during TV therapy = Daily Show followed by Colbert Report).

Good books: the Color Code (for food) Body for Life (for exercise).

Bill, thanks for the heads up on the PM group.

Bill, Thank you for your guidance. Worth its weight in well, gold.

Canadian dollar has ZOOMED in the past 48 hours... 1.5 cents...

I have a question regarding the Canadian economic news: Is there some equivalent to the Econoday Calendar that provides a breakdown of the Canadian economic events and analysis?

Also, why has there been such a severely positive reaction to the Fed holding interest rates, and hinting that they're between a rock and a hard place and are unlikely to decrease the rate unless the markets tank?

Bill,

Thanks for all the useful info you provide. Some natural therapies that help the lungs to recover:
- Boiling Thyme and drink it.
- Eating onions.
- Eating oranges.
Hope you get well soon.

Jock, Are you the Jock of the miner conference?
Re health and exercise, just got back from a swim. My single best one stop shop for a workout. It's the glue on the computer that keeps from exercising more. My wife is a yogi and, for better or worse, I get a surplus of advice. Now when do I start selling; is today enough strength?

Onlineaces,
Thanks for the ETF list. I had to print the whole bullboard thread to get your useful list.