Dow futes weaker now. As this is/should be a light news day the setup is good for the slingshot I expect the bulls to attempt. Aggressive (very!) traders will be attempting to time this thing off any piece of data they can glom on to.

Get well soon Bill.

i also wish that you get well soon.

the new century saga / revisiting the novmeber conference call

when the stock was at 40$ and they were buying back stocks on new issued debt.....

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

Bill, we pay attention to your comments because they're consistently spot-on.

This is a time for you to listen to Mrs. Cara vis-a-vis your health. Again and again she seems to have been spot-on.

I've found that when I'm sick, if I just go to bed, pretty much stay in bed, and get over it totally, I do far better than when I try to work while still fighting whatever it is. When I do the latter, whatever it is lingers and lingers and lingers and LINGERS. Plus it sends me back to bed again and again. I'm just never quite right.

I have a feeling that your wife has very good instincts about what you should be doing. May I gently suggest that you take advantage of her loving advice and suggestions?

Bill, I think I'm very much like you in that I have a wife who has better sense about my health than I do myself. Listen to her (as I have learned to listen to mine) and get well soon and completely.

All the best.

Good advice indeed to listen to your wife. All you husbands and husbands in waiting take heed! Pneumonia is nasty stuff.

Thanks for preparing your readers for the events that have transpired.

Get well soon! Only come back when you really feel great, we need you to "keep them honest", but look after yourself first :)

MU was upgraded this morning to buy from hold at Citigroup.

for those willing to short, take a look at SDS (double the inverse of SPY). trading volume is definitely high enough for quick order executions.

Dear Mr. Cara,

My husband came down with pneumonia this time last year. The doctor put him on antibotics but it didn't improve the condition. So he was sent to the hospital, and in 6 hours had to be moved into emergency care because the vital organs were failing. It was the worst night of my life.

It turned out he got strep pneumonia and once it enters the bloodstream, it spreads fast. Luckily, he recovered but I shudder to think what might have happened if he wasn't already in the hospital when his organs were failing.

So please don't take your pneumonia lightly. Have it checked out thoroughly. Insist on frequent X-rays to monitor its progress. And stay in the hospital if necessary.

Good luck with your health. The market will wait and we will wait for your word of wisdom.

Bill would you please take some time-off, lord knows you have earned-it!

To my friends here, strongly suggest adding to positions in MRB and OZN at support :)

BTW, when your feling better would luv to hear your take on Sen. Dodd's proposed bailout of sub-prime and subsequent result for $, Gold.

Bill, please listen to the distaff side here! Get well!

Bill,

Community-acquired pneumonia is easily treated with oral antibiotics. Hospital-acquired pneumonia is another ball game. Get treated early and stay out of the hospital.

Dear Mr. Cara, Please take care of Mr. Bill, turn off the tube, lie aside the newspapers, and ....good foods, lots of liquids, some sensational junk books (whatever suits you), some music or cd's to divert your mind, and maybe some hot tub or sauna time or a nice massage (or a daily massage until you recover).

Dream of the blue Bahama waters waiting for you. Dream of smooth sailing off the warm coast of Florida. Dream of old sea turtles floating in our ancient oceans.

Thank you for all your help and wisdom. BBC

Battle raging now over last Monday's lows. Looks like here's where the bulls have decided/ need (?) to make their stand.

Bill,

...I'm joining the crowd of well wishers and thinking of you...Godspeed your healing...

joey

GLD pushing higher... big miners on a turn around, smaller ones still negative. Let's see if the trend has legs.

Bill, I've had a bad 8 months of random sicknesses and ailments as well. Life has its ups and downs. Just take the advice of the slew of people here (and your wife), get better, and we promise we'll still be here chattering when you get back.

Adding to XAU for what I'm hoping will be at least an intraday bounce.

It's a guy thing when it comes to health Bill, but as age and experience teach us, it is better to listen to your better half. Wishing you a speedy recovery.

For those who didn't read the details yesterday, deterioration was broad-based, with late payments rising for all types of loans, delinquency rates rose in 49 states, and foreclosure rates rose in 44 states. FHA delinquencies rose to a record 13.46% and sub-prime ARM delinquencies rising to 14.44%.

No mention of mortgage fraud but a tell is something like 3% of sub-prime mortgages didn't make their first payment. Of course when it comes to banks their concept of security is nil until the pain becomes unbearable. This has happened in the past with financial institutions' greed and it seems to repeat in cycles.

Merill out with a Buy on SLW.

Watching the Transports continuing to drop. Collin Twiggs dollar support line is 114.50 against the yen.

Good luck and be safe out there.

Bill. You have been on the run too much. Life is too short to push the limits. You need to slow down and take a good healthy vacation with the blessings of your doctor.

My wife and I just spent some time in Cuba. Some business and some pleasure. With all the turmoil in the markets a visit to Cuba opens ones eyes as to how lucky we are in North America. They don't have much but they are wonderful people and get by. Only the Lord knows how.

I was catching up on news on the way back. My wife chastised me for reading the business news. I could only smile at some of the pieced I was reading and tried to tie them into Cuban life.

Yuan=Juan=John

Carry Trade= Donkey

Liquidity= Carry trade+Donkey+bucket of water.

Risk Aversion=keeping out of sight.

Sub prime loan=someone elses sandwich you ate and now need to give back.

Stock Market=soup you buy from a road vendor.

I could go on and on.

Bill, we need you to be feeling better.I highly recommend Varadero for a vacation. A visit to Havana is a must. Just think you can sit on Hemmingway's bar stool and sip chilled Mohitos. Nothing better to get rid of a nasty illness.

In the current environment, where do you all think gold and gold miners will go?

I ask this because my basic investment style could be called "Watching Paint Dry." I like to take view on a stock or market trend, and then take a concentrated position (often 25% of my assets) and then wait for several years for the scenario to play out. I did this in '98 when I though the market was too high, so I bought rural land, and the same year I bought Southeast Asian closed end funds 8 months after the July '97 crash. Then after Enron, I bought AES and went thru a year of hair-raising ups and downs as the whole power generation sector flirted with bankrupcy. (This position frequently would go up or down 15% a day when the price was in the $1 to $3 range...) Then after the crash of Royal Ahold (from $33 or so to $3.10 in about a month), I bought that and waited til early this year to sell both AHO and AES and the Asian funds.

Now with gold, I've taken a pretty big position and have the feeling that I should just stop looking at the market for a year or so and see what happens. It's just that this transitional period is painful. I'm used to it because this seems to be what happens when an asset class or specific stock shifts from the bottom of its valuation to a sustained multi-year gain. Comments are welcome.....

Bill, avoid the hospital, even if it means having a nurse come in to monitor an IV. Too many infections floating around in those places.

The weakness in the AD line yesterday, esp after 11:45 EST, was the tell that the market was going to break.

any picks for one year horizon?

Get well Bill....take a good long rest.

Cramer talks about his exploits as a
hedge fund manager:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=708wDFX28lc

Ecuador. Appears Correa is continuing with his tough talk on miners and oil companies. His friend Hugo has his ear. Caution is required going froward. Several NA miners involved in big projects.

Although I believe the long term fundamental outlook on gold is still constructive, I'm a bit concerned about an uwnwinding of the highly correlated asset melt up of the past few years. Whether it was central banks printing money or hedge funds doing the carry trade, a lot of money has been sloshing around, finding it's way into a host of investments. Housing, stocks, bonds, copper, gold, silver, oil, and numerous other asset plays have gone up together. I think one has to at least consider the possibility if credit is tightened ALL these asset classes may trend lower for a very long period of time. And for those of us long gold or miners it may be a painful few months. Gold needs to reclaim the 89 MA quickly. Hope you feel better Bill. Long GLD, assorted miners, short oil stocks and long SPY puts.

optionoracle-

Good to hear from you.

So far tring to play this "bounce" has cost me my ante. Is Leisa's FXN account filling up again?

Bill,
Can't afford to lose you. Stanford University says the only thing that stops your kind of malady is Amoxicillin and Clavuritic acid which is the potentionator for Amoxicillin and that should be taken whenever you feel your problem coming on. Sinusitis frequently develops into pneumonia, that is describing you perfectly. I suffered for 20 years, just found what actually works.
Marvin7197

Optionoracle -

I fear you maybe right. Last May-June, everything went down as hedgies unwound a bit. If this is a greater unwinding, PM's and miners could go down too -- until all is unwound?

As I have been saying, this is an all-assets down phase.

Curious thing today is that the yen is up only marginally against the dollar yet the markets are down nearly 1%. Although the dollar is down nearly 1% against the euro.

I'm looking for a capitulation low in the markets and/or miners where everyone sells regardless of price. This happened in May as everything was down ~5% over the day before at the bottom of the correction. Money outflows from the Rydex PM fund have been very large. We are getting close to that capitulation low where there will be no one else to sell. As long as gold holds up, and with the dollar in a downtrend that would likely be the case, the miners will be a great buy soon IMO.

I read that Polyus sold 20% of their Goldfields holdings for 2.66 Billion. I wonder if they are using this "Warchest" to take a run at KRY?
See this link.
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=29822
Any comments?

MU

Citigroup upped MU to a buy from hold. I bought yesterday at 11.42. Will keep a very tight stop on it. SNDK has had a good run from 37.13. ( I posted that purchase here)

There's the V-bottom slingshot I was expecting. The "lows" were pierced decisively so now the 1350 level is DEFINITELY in play and 1325 below that maybe.

Ignore us.

Forget about us.

LEAVE US ALONE, BILL!

Go to bed. Stay there. Rest.

We'll see you in a few weeks. Got that? We'll see you IN A FEW WEEKS!!!

That's when you'll be ready, really ready, to ROAR.

subject:kry-crystallex------ i've been with same since april last year- convinced some one will buy out?? polyus say thay wanna grow in future years?? with all the future oz of gold in the ground-------------something will happen-just my thoughts- not sellin till she pops BIG!!! any other thoughts out there??

subject:kry-crystallex------ i've been with same since april last year- convinced some one will buy out?? polyus say thay wanna grow in future years?? with all the future oz of gold in the ground-------------something will happen-just my thoughts- not sellin till she pops BIG!!! any other thoughts out there??

subject:kry-crystallex------ i've been with same since april last year- convinced some one will buy out?? polyus say thay wanna grow in future years?? with all the future oz of gold in the ground-------------something will happen-just my thoughts- not sellin till she pops BIG!!! any other thoughts out there??

holdenll,

My wife and I were just talking about your SNDK call last night. Thanks for the heads up on MU.

Bill,

I hope you don't have a Blackberry! Get some rest! Do some crossword puzzles or something! As a breathing specialist recently told me...

"Your lungs are not a muscle, they are a sponge.

It is possible to strengthen a muscle, but not a sponge, so make sure you treat your lungs well and with respect."

best wishes

CNBC TH was SO excited the market had rebounded, he said, "this, after the DOW dipped below 12,000 for the first time ever." Then he "curbed his enthusiasm". LOL

Bill - I just noticed your note above. I shouldn't be joking so frivolously. I'm sorry to hear your news.

I do hope you'll stick with the doctor's orders, and take it easy. One thing you might consider is consulting a nutritionist on how to buld your immune system back up. High-tech medicine doesn't deal with this.

Good Luck with your treatment.

Note to Pat: Chain him down if you have to! Tell him it's for his own good; that many readers want him to take ALL the time he needs in order to heal! He's a great guy, and a great host! - Jock

I know a number of Canadian readers are interested in this:

Jury selection begins for Conrad Black in Chicago

http://chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?post_date=2007-03-14&id=24214

Euro over 1.32 (let's see if pushes through 132.5 this week. Of course, the Fed may have intervention plans). Yen at 117.02. Fundamentals still there for gold.

Preparing the First Helicopter Drop

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7136.htm

If this happens, the dollar will "sink" and PMs will "float" much higher. I like the comment about helping out the banker friends. :)

I will say a prayer for you. Get well soon.

LLTC: I've loaded the cara 100 into my software, MONOCLE SYSTEMS...new to me, but going to give it a whirl. Linear Tech has the highest alpha quotient..using a short term period, but longer term looks depressed. What's nice is that weekly rsi has been rising for months and shows positive divergence on a 5 yr chart. Bill has cautioned us in rather severe terms about the market, but if it is bottoming his cara 100 LTTC looks interesting. Technology may have the best value if only thought of in terms of how long it has lagged and been out of favor.

GFI: Other most interesting. Close to 100 dma, highest alpha among others below its 50dma, and positive divergence with daily rsi.

If the rule is rsi be below 30 on all three time periods, I'm way too early to consider buying. But, do I want to be holding so much cash? Anyone scaling in? Am I over interpreting Bill's caution? From what he said earlier in the week, cash or delivered PM are the only options. Kind of sticking my neck out here but would like feedback from others. Thanks and I think he's getting great advice from the board. I wish him well

Jasper -

Bill said in his last WIR that he thinks the cycle rules (RSI < 30) won't work well in bear country. In the miners, he recommends the ones growing earnings by bringing mines online this year.

Companies in the broad market may be subject to shrinking earnings. RSI's don't get much above 50 in bear markets.

Dear Bill,
Just want to echo all the fine people wishing you well. Pneumonia is nasty stuff. Forget about the blog , your health is far more important. All the Best!

Jasper -

Here's the way I think of it. RSI 7's < 30 brings it into the accumulation zone. that doesn't mean you HAV E to buy just then. And why would you want to buy until the stock has established a bottom and started to turn? That's a bit more chart-oriented than Bill is, but that's how I see it. Why try to catch a falling knife? From RSI 30, it can always fall to RSI 25 !

Hmmmm....perhaps a quote from Roberts Service's poem "Grin" might be appropriate for your current condition Bill:

"Rise up in the morning with the will that, smooth or rough, You'll grin.
Sink to sleep at midnight and although you're feeling tough, Yet grin.
There's nothing gained by whining and you're not that kind of stuff;
You're a fighter from away back and you won't take a rebuff;
Your trouble is that you don't know when you have had enough-"

Thats why we have family & friends....to help us see the big picture. Be well.

Goldman Sachs fined $2 Million for Naked Short Selling

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070314/goldman_sec_settlement.html?.v=1

Ariba Los Manos por Favor

Bill, when you first posted your flu like symptoms were pneumonia I shared I was just getting over it. I came close to killing myself in denial with 105 temperatures for 5 days could not stand to walk. Ended up as atypical pneumonia/ legionaries . What would Locutus tell you? Sleep, That and lots of water with some B&C vitamins the other thing was a bedtime of around 4 PM daily.

Best wishes,

Android7
aka Michael

ALOHA !!

Bill we send prayers from the islands ... get well soon and if you "can" ... make it sooner! But like the Hawaiians say ... "Hey Bruddah, Can can, no can, no can, Bruddah!" Beautiful balmy island night the kind that makes you feel sacred!

On the not so sacred side of things ... AHHH ... YEAH ... the markets and the pundits did what they get paid to do, but the one thing they can never change are the fundamentals. No amount of money will fix that ... The US DEBT just expands like there is no tomorrow!

Fundamentals for companies are what keeps me buying and when weak hands throw in the towel and send some real bargains my way I am most happy to be a gracious buyer. I bought ECU SILVER today! If they don't make at least 300mil AG ounces on the next 43-101 I'll eat my stinky left TEVA! HAHHH ...

Link to Quik Report ...
http://www.ecu.ca/s/QwikReport.asp

Link to geological review and investment valuation. A MUST READ ...
http://www.ecu.ca/i/pdf/AdrianDouglasRpt.pdf