inflation less painful than recession..

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IC30Dj01.html

hello from germany,

good to hear that you can get more sleep.

asia and europe very strong, despite the weak us markets.

looks to me that money is shifting away from sp, nasdag and co....

here is a very good example how the subprime mess is spreading ...

Kass: Harley Hogs Feed at the Subprime Trough

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

Yogi would be saying:

"You can observe a lot just by watching."

geepers,,,,GLD shares getting whacked today in pre-mkt.

Any news???

i usually trade rs,but i am having a problem as to when to get out. any and all help would be appreciated. thanks sciden04

Whoo hoo! Great health news Bill!
Carry-on with the resting and tea. I'd keep an eye on the pillow count.....how is the cast iron frying pan inventory? (my wife's preferred weapon).

GLD looks to be on special today, like they say, low everyday prices.

I see that Lonestar is being taken out today by US Steel. Maverick was the first, then National, then Hydril now LoneStar. These are all suppliers to the oil services industries.

First post here, been lurking for some time.

Question about CDO/CDS instruments generally... whom do you think is most exposed in the event of a downgrade/systemic risk?

My reading seems to show MBI, ABK. ABK appears prime to me as a short below 86. I read that chart as a sloppy H&S with a neckline at 86 (where, coincidentally, a multimonth trendline runs as well), target of about 80.

sciden04,
RS requires a clear plan with detailed parameters, backtesting, and rigorous execution. And it will only capture the middle part of the move.

Crystallex Announces CDN$36 Million Bought Deal Financing
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070329/0232530.html

It does not look good for the current shareholders, so close to the permit approval.

JogyP, I don't agree. The initial offering was priced at $4.25 Canadian. That's a premium to what the stock had been trading at until yesterday's moonshot. And the additional 1.2M shares will be priced on April 24th.

I suppose that gives the syndicate incentive to keep the share price down, but I'm not sure if they will be able to do that if the permit comes through in the meantime.

This is not dillutive considering the company has 917M shares outstanding. It provides funding for development of LC. I'd welcome arguments to the contrary, but this looks positive to me.

Seems GRZ is a much better short term trade considering the Outstanding share count is small for now. Talking as a trader only.

re SLW...SEDI filings...

Ian Telfer sold the balance of the 500,000 shares acquired with recent exercise of options.

Any spanish speakers here? The english translation is terrible, but it suggests KRY received its permit for LC:

http://economia.eluniversal.com/2007/03/29/eco_ava_crystallex-dice--que_29A849773.shtml

n2som,

I am not sure the article is little confused, it states that KRY received a permit for Las Brisas, but ii says it is still waiting for Las Cristinas' permit. It seemingly mistakenly cites Gordon Thompson's comments from yesterday regarding GRZ, not KRY.

And they also annnounced the bought deal has just increased to CDN 53M (!).

KRY

That Spanish news item is just quoting Thompson, who has been using stronger language about the permit status, saying that the permit is advancing through the process.

I agree with number2son, and thus disagree with JogyP, that this new share offering is not a big negative. It means to me that new money is willing to come in at $4.25 which is considerably more than I and many others here paid for it in recent months.

I'd suspected, (and posted awhile back), that new management would come looking for more money, but whether it's in anticipation of actually developing the mine or just to cover interim expenses is not clear to me. The cynical side of me wonders if it's an opportunity for friends of management to get at a whack of shares immediately prior to a permit and subsequent takeover bid. (But, what do I know?)

furthering the theme of government chicanery, I'm passing along an excerpt from a column by John Embry (Sprott Asset Management) in march 30 edition of Investor's Digest...

in this article, titled "The time for gold 'to go ballistic' approaches,
he talks about reported money supply growth numbers in the Eurozone,U.K.,China,South Korea, Australia and Russia (and unreported reconstructed estimate for the U.S.) and then opines:

"However, the crux of the matter is still the availability of central-bank gold to plug the yawning gap between demand and mine-and-scrap supply. In that regard, the position of the U.S. is critical because the U.S. Treasury allegedly controls the largest gold reserves on the planet. But, there are questions about whether gold is really there, given the fact that there hasn't been a public audit since Eisenhower was president in the 1950's.

Adding even more intrigue were the changes in nomenclature in 2001 that affected 94 per cent of the Treasury's gold. Until early that year, the reserves held at Fort Knox, West Point and the Denver Mint were characterized as 'Gold Bullion Reserves." Then they were arbitrarily redesignated 'Custodial Gold Bullion.'

The ink was barely dry on that designation, when in June of that year, they were reclassified as 'Deep Storage Gold.' Given the speculation about whether the reserves are still physically in place, this exercise in semantics raised the red flag among skeptics. If gold was indeed there, why not reclassify it as 'Gold Bullion Reserves' as had been the case for decades?

Invoking the term 'Deep Storage Gold' led some to suggest that the U.S. had been active in a program of gold swaps whereby deliverable bars of gold had been swapped for gold that has yet to be mined.

Only the U.S. government officials directly involved know the answer for sure. But given the rampant chicanery in the opaque world of gold, this certainly raises the suspicions and reinforces my view that we are very, very close to that key moment when there could be insufficient central-bank gold available to meet mounting demand. as I have said before, that is when the gold price is going to go ballistic."

So, buying bulion - as opposed to certificates, etc. exascerbates the squeeze?

>>The cynical side of me wonders if it's an opportunity for friends of management to get at a whack of shares immediately prior to a permit and subsequent takeover bid. (But, what do I know?)

That's why I said it does not look good to me.
If KRY shares would be worth north of $10 like bill suggested a while ago (f my memory is correct), why would the mgt sell shares so cheap, when they can easily get the financing after a permit.

I just spoke with Richard Marshall by phone and he was unaware of the article -- I've sent him the link.

As others have already pointed out, this is another red herring.

We also discussed today's share offering. Basically, the company needs cash to "extend the runway" given their current burn rate. This need was not contingent on market expectations for the LC permit.

Here's to your good health, Bill.

AMD is at RSI 25/10/26 for those interested. I couldn't care less about AMD vs. Intel (or any other semi), just an observation about a company that's not going away anytime soon.

LL&P

t4k

my 2 cents on KRY's share offering:

Why not take advantage of this pop in price to reduce cost of capital?

If friends of management wanted to get their hands on shares before issue of permit, they could have done it cheaper on the open market, no?

I once read an interesting case about a biotech start-up that raised way more capital than they needed to give them legitimacy as well as a strengthened negotiation position. I.e. now they have the cash to put them well on their way to developing deposit themselves. If a major wants it, they'll need to pay up. Whereas if they clearly weren't expressing interest in developing mine themselves, it would be obvious they are just waiting for a buyer.

ALOHA !!

number2son ... Directly translated the headlines for KRY states that they have received the environmental permit. Dilution is hardly ever a plus!

joey ... What all this boils down to is that GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ... The USA is not very honest and the fact that there has not been an "unbiased public" audit of our gold reserves to me is a joke! Add in the elimination of M3 last year and any sane person would have to ask ... "What are they trying to hide?" Then they come up with that term "deep storage" ... PLEASE-E-E-E !!! I would have to ask them is there any "shallow storage" or how about "surface storage" and just how "deep is deep" ... 6 feet? 100 feet? 1000 feet? You mean like a mine? That is the moral equivalent of putting down your future earnings as your current earnings on a mortgage app! I'm losing count of all the government and corporate lies any more ...

That brings me back to my original statement that GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ... That thesis is "trickle down" and it has filtered into corporate America, into stock markets and into society. In general moral fabric breaks down as the subtle desperation of financial survival creeps into all classes. Hence the essence of fiat monetary systems is "scarcity"! I do not expect our future economic and financial outlook to improve until our monetary system is made honest again. Under our current corrupt monetary system only detereoration will be the norm. This process has spanned many lifetimes but as it nears its finale expect the velocity to increase geometrically. We now speak in terms of "trillions" and it has been accepted with open arms. A "thousand trillion" is next!

KRY

"If friends of management wanted to get their hands on shares before issue of permit, they could have done it cheaper on the open market, no?"

Valid question, proudPapa, but perhaps the answer lies in risk versus reward and opportunity cost.

Again, not that I really know what's going on, but just to defend my speculation, if I had loads of money, I'd be more interested in a short-term, low-risk doubling, than I would be in a longer-term, high-risk tripling.

wow, big run down in gold. Still long GLD.

Bill, any thought's?

ALOHA !!

The Iranian government has made a VERY strong statement on their new $50,000rial money! What they are saying is WE WILL BE NUCLEAR !!! OH YES ... WE WILL BE NUCLEAR !!!

READ ON:
Link: http://www.mises.org/story/2521

Radioactive Money
By Clifford F. Thies
Posted on 3/29/2007

"The Islamic Republic of Iran has just issued a new 50,000 rial banknote. An eye-catching feature of the banknote is the atomic symbol on its reverse side, an orange-hued representation of six electrons in orbit. Money has been "backed" by a wide range of things, from silver and gold, to central banks, to assertions of raw power. This atomic symbol represents quite an escalation in this regard."

INTC closing in on 200 *month* SMA at 18.61 - should be some support there.

Agree with MarkM's comment from a day or so back on trading plan for bear market. Would also add a shopping list for coming out the other side. Seems like a good project for readers of the blog.

t4k

In my favorite Italian blog http://www.cobraf.com the blogger showed an interesting info and graph:
http://www.cobraf.com/ForumF/immagini/R_77000_1.gif
If you compare the graphs of stocks or arts or anything, you find that everything is in sync with the speculation coming from the yen carry trade. If we take the graph of NZD/JPY and lay it on the S&P500 they are the same! Or you can even say that the SP500 has a lag. So NZD/JPY can foretell the stock behaviour. Maybe the problems for stocks will start when NZD/JPY goes below 70 as it happened in May 2006. The NZD is useful for speculation and this comparison because of its high interest rate.

Early tell today was tech and weak action of R2K. Upward revisions to inventory values as propellant for GDP is not particularly bullish nor is fall in imports IMHO.

I think we end up positive but no victory dance for the bulls.

Maybe I missed a post somewhere - does Bill still post analysts reports? Are they in a particular location? Sorry to be a bit out of step! Thanks, DC

number2son re KRY

you stated "This is not dillutive considering the company has 917M shares outstanding."

My info via Cdn and US sources indicates KRY has 244M shares outstanding. I would be happy to be wrong. Can anyone verify either number?

Salutations BC and the rest of the tribe of this wonderful blog-

Another trivial note on the saga we call KRY.
What do you make of the syndicate offering today as it relates to non-U.S. participation. Is this an attempt to play to the anti-US fervor and nudge the environmental process along, or is there something else to be garnered from this?

"...This press release is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities, nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to qualification or registration under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The securities being offered have not been, nor will they be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and such securities may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from U.S. registration requirements...." http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070329/0232530.html

Keep a smile on your face and a song in you heart.

Kry has 246,196,808 shares outstanding.

The tell for me this morning was the TICK weakness, esp on the NASDAQ.

Speaking of TICK, TIKI is the TICK on the DOW30. As a game, I like to guess when and if the PPT is in action and one thing I watch is the TIKI. Yesterday was the first time in ages I've seen it hit +30, and quite a few times it bounced over +24, which is my suspicion threshold. FWIW.

npmg, you're right. I was relying on the often unreliable data from Yahoo. At 12M shares added to 244M, that is 5% dilution - still a relatively small amount. And priced fairly given recent trading in this stock.

It isn't coincidence KRY is trading at around $3.70 US.

jammon,

Bill would be able to give a far more accurate and legal answer to your question, but from a layman's viewpoint the press release is standard fare from Cdn companies. It somehow relates to differing Cdn and US legalese. If you follow Cdn mining stocks at all this is literally 'cut and paste' verbatim.

Back to number2son

After posting my query about the number of KRY shares outstanding I realized you indicated 917M. I obviously was not reading carefully. Obviously 224M shares is more beneficial to shareholders than 917M. I just wish there were fewer outstanding. GRZ really looks like a better bet given 40M shares outstanding and roughly 10M oz of gold.

Bill you're doing a great job here. Thanks !!
I did subscribe to the analyst reports mailinglist but the last one I received is the Credit Suisse report. Could you please send more reports (Rosenberg from ML etc). I appreciate what you're doing and hope you'll be better soon.

ooomph-

Yes, I too noticed a few "gooses" of the indices. However, they all sold off rather quickly. No appetite yesterday to play the game at all. Looks like very little today either. I may be wrong about that positive close!

omphalos -

What is the source of your TICK, TIKI symbols?

I don't think optionsxpress offers these symbols? At least I can't find them.

The action today strikes me as being particularly weak given the qtr-end mark-ups that usually take place. Perhaps the "plan" is to save ammunition for tomorrow.

For me, the bulls are fighting a losing battle today. I think we will be red today with strong volume. Nasdaq lead the market strongly higher this morning and now it is strongly leading the markets lower. I bet tomorrow, Friday, will also be RED to set up the biggest down day this year on Monday. The markets are showing me they are losing future confidence. Maybe all the bad news is finally sinking in? But what do I know...good luck, and be safe preserving your capital.

Nice set up in GRZ for more.

aces, I use eSignal for realtime data.

Here's an old freeebie I had lying around:
http://tinyurl.com/2rrd9m
Note you can chage the time interval in the URL.

Longhorn. Hugo wanted to make sure Kry had the shillings. Off they trotted to the markets. Kry has some more work to do on the shared canals and the joint airport with GRZ. Wont be long now until be can "back up the truck".

AMGN SNDK MU DCX

AMGN 27/11/15 on my watch list.
SNDK got in around 37.15. pullback today.
MU got in around 11.40. pullback today.
DCX - short possibility. Chrysler stinks. up on rumor, seems to be deciding where to go. Shorted in my play portfolio. RSI is 88/77/72

Lelik, et al,
re: yen carry:
I am watching the yen index (XJY) for
a break of the long-term (back to early '05) weekly downtrend
at 87, which also roughly coincides with the 150-week EMA.
This to me would be a significant event and lead to complete the
unwind that was left unfinished last month.
Not clear now if we'll get the inverse H&S I postulated
a while back, but the pattern on the daily now looks like a bearish
wedge. Looking back at the unwinds in May and this past
Feb, there should be time to get out on the first and even
second day with "small" (count your blessings) long-side losses.
Early exit warnings might be a break of this wedge up to the first close
above 87.

As for an Oct '87 type crash, I suspect it'll be for
a different reason and will not offer a way for graceful exit unless
you liquidate up to the day before. fwiw, i think one candidate
trigger would be the USD index breaking 80.

As of today's close, SPY is holding support at 142 and may
even drop to 141 day-closing basis before yet another rally. I would
wait for a close below 141 before considering a large bearish position.

... the 141 level applies (in my view) to this pullback. If we
rally from here, i'd ratchet up and look at the 146 level for a possible
double top.

(typo: i meant bullish wedge on XJY)

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6484061137769305763

The above (from FSO) is a terrific tutorial on inflation. For Bill's interested readers, I recommend that you watch it. It is almost an hour.

And...I'm loving the "wrap" function and the tinyurl function posited by commentators. Thank you.

Well, Leisa, the last thing I planned for tonight was a lecture, but I was totally hooked by your Prof. Krassimir. I highly recommend your offering to all you other "students". It is a refreshing reminder of the poison already in our systems, and the all but inevitable prognosis.
Makes me want to go back to grad school. There is nothing better than a good teacher.
Invigorating.
Thanks.

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but if you want to make a long URL link much shorter go to www.tinyurl.com and following the instructions there. Its very easy and this will allow everyone viewing Bill's web pages an easier read.

Bill,

As to health, I can recommend www.rawfoodexplained.com.

As to looking for a buy of HOV at RSI < 30, you may be right about seeing the whites of their eyes. I've done well shorting the lenders and homebuilders (some of whom I did contract work for), and you may be right about 'broken' sectors. We built huge monstrosities, a long commute from working places, and the ongoing energy, maintenance, and travel costs are just not sustainable. Oh for a plaza, a fountain, a cafe, and a short walk back home to make love and take siesta.

I trade options exclusively, and value the anecdotal and technical education you have provided on your website. One point I might add, which of course you can use or lose, is that I was taught if an out of the money put or call was more than 10% of the strike price, it would probably be hard going to make a profit.

Gold waiting for econ data this morning before making a move. Look how tight it's wound.

rico-

If that bullish wedge resolves on FXY like it indicates that will be the beginning of the denouement for US equities and would cause a lot of global resets as well. JMHO

Diversify your portfolio with Hemisphere Gold, Inc. (HPGI)

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