this is a wonderful quote

....get caught up in the current market enthusiasm being generated by the market Bulls over the “softening” at the Fed. In my view the latter is a cover story for smart money wanting to sell into strength.

Subprime Loan Meltdown Engulfs Even Borrowers With Good Credit

credit tightening in full swing

plus for everybody who missed it

the roubini / bloomberg video

make sure you get the last 2 minutes. very surprising!

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

have a nice "golden" day

Home builder KB Home (KBH) reported earnings this morning. Ironically, they bill themselves as the No. 5 builder in the U.S., yet fully 40% of their current backlog is accounted for by their operations in France.

It's a dreadful report. Margins are getting crushed and backlog is 34% lower than last year. But the pre-market action has the stock trading sharply higher.

Certainly some of this may be shorts caught in yesterday's melt up, but the irrationality of the stock market continues to amaze me.

i agree.

it is getting harder day by day not to short. :-)

LOL!
First thing that came to mind yesterday when the news flashed about Dell's new computer.....Bill and his crystal ball strike again! HOW does he do it?

Come to think of it Bill does bear a slight resemblance to Professor Marvel in the Wizard of Oz. But he was a phoney like the Wizard, oh and Ben. Bill is the real thing.

Hi,

just wanted to comment on Bill's comment regarding spin from the media. Last night during The Sopranos on A&E, which I couldn't get away from for 2 episodes, I started noticing the commercials. As opposed to those countless Manulife style commercials that tout the value of investing and the great returns/success/riches it will bring you, there were commercials for the following:
lawyers to help those being hassled by the IRS,
financial advisors for people that are in a partnership and the partner just died and now the partner's reckless son holds 51% of the company,

actually I cannot remember any more, but there was a slew of them.

That's all, just a comment.

Regarding commercials: those IRS commercials have been on for a while. What surprises me is the continued barrage of sub-prime lending commercials.

good mornin----------spring is here-----i'm still holdin a wak o crystallex??? stock.drill results when? is it late may. that darn ol enviroment permit .is it commin? when?? have a wonderful day bill.

Not sure if this ever did get loaded (I know Bill said that it was too large initially), but the UBS Q4 Commodity Connection is available online at http://perso.orange.fr/cresusbourse/ubs.pdf

As an aside, I would be interested in hearing from others as to the best ways to get this type of research (TD Waterhouse is limited) and also any thoughts as to the best providers of information.

Thanks.

Several 90/10 up (and down) days in the past month, quite bullish according to this Hulbert article ... http://tinyurl.com/2rp4oz

Bill, it feels from your posts that you are feeling better. Hope you got my wellness suggestion via email, and that you ARE feeling well. Would very much appreciate your take on this article, as I find Mark Hulbert to be a worthwhile read.

I am also itching to get short, but this article and recent crushing of the VIX & VXN have me holding off. I recall an earlier discussion with MarkM leading to the conclusion that these volatility measures are a better buy signal (as they fall after a big jump up) than a short signal (as markets grind higher under continued low volatility). Turns out shorting is pretty hard.

t4k

"By now everybody knows that the Fed’s bias indicator "additional firming that may be needed" was deleted from yesterday's FOMC statement. As stocks rocketed immediately thereafter, it was apparent that nothing else mattered."

I did not know that!
I do now! Thanks Bill

Going to see Trump & Co. this weekend at a Real Estate expo... I wonder if he is going to have a 'forced' positive outlook on the real estate market in the US, since he's getting $1.5M to speak.

They have bombarded the locals here with TV ads, mailings, and magazine ads, and spent over $1M on marketing alone.

Maybe he will try and sell us on his Bubble-Proof Real Estate Investment course.

http://www.trumpuniversity.com/products/product.cfm?productcode=TABCTA01

Is bubble-proof buying a house in Detroit for $1500?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070319/ts_nm/usa_subprime_detroit_dc;_ylt=Aov5dA96IapEm53NtFaK6N0EtbAF

Nothing changes. Indeed there is a barrage of sub prime lenders spewing their wares all over the net. They must be geared to tease the newer liars entering the market. Of course there is a new crop companies entering the fray who will re tool the previous lies and work with the lender for easy exit in a foreclosure. Now all we need is people with cash to pounce on the cheap homes.

FED will put a spin on this.

I found this to be a great post from The Big Picture. Hopefully you'll enjoy it too:

"Of course, they [The Fed] can't say what they really think. The Fed knows how important confidence is, and they do not want to do anything to discourage consumer sentiment or spook the psychology of the markets.

If they were unconcerned with those issues, the statement might look more like this:

"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators have been much worse than what we were hoping for: Housing is a bigger mess than we anticipated; Business Capex is heading south, as are durable goods. Retail sales have been punk for 3 months running, (and what' with those excuses from the retailers? Too hot! Too cold! Lunar eclipse!) Don't even ask about the Automakers. We expect the economy is likely to continue to soften until it slips to about a 1.5% GDP.

Even worse, recent readings on inflation have been elevated. We were hoping that inflation pressures would moderate as the economy stabilized, but no such luck.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern is that we have painted ourselves into a corner, and we are running out of options. On the one hand, Inflation remains an ongoing concern, as medical costs, food, and energy remain problematic. On the other hand, it is apparent that growth is cooling rapidly. Housing has flipped from a net positive for consumers and job seekers to a net negative.

All told, we are running out of options until one or the other of these gets much much worse. Future policy adjustments, therefore, will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. As noted above, if GDP slips below 1.5%, we will be shifting our bias towards easing. Appreciably worse that 1.5%, and we will have to act on rates to prevent a recession -- inflation be damned.

On a final note, the FOMC has taken up a collection, and as a retirement present, we are sending former Chairman Alan Greenspan to a lovely spa on Fiji Island for the foreseeable future. Since there are no satellite feeds, internet connections or any off island communications at all, the CHairman can thank us when he returns -- preferably, around December 2008."

Sorry, forgot to post the link:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/03/fed_statement_r.html

I apolgize this is the right forum for it, but I need some help/ advice

I deposited a Check into my Wife's IRA account and the check cleared the bank on march 16.
On march 19, when I checked the account, I did not see the money and I called TDW CS. Few hours later they called back and said someone made a mistake and deposited the money into the wrong account and it will be fixed by end of day.

On March 20, I called after seeing no credit to my account, I was told the IRA dept is backed up and may need 1-2 days to fix it.
Today on March 22nd I am gettig the same answer.

Is there anything I can do other than complain to the SEC?
While my money is sitting in someone else's account, I am loosing the opportunity to by stocks!
Any comments/suggestions wil be greatly appreciated.
Please email me at minijogy@yahoo.com

For what it;s wort!

The last two banking business cycles appeared to be on rough 10 year cycles each ending in 1991-92 and 2001-2002. Each one ended in recession and both were preceeded by good runs in the tech sector the prior 2 years before(1988-89) and (1998-99).

Also, when the tech run started, real-estate went south.

My thots are to start to buy real-estate when there has been negative gdp forn 3 quarters in a row.

Bill or anyone, any thoughts?

Dab

jmf,

Here's a column from Mark Hulbert that points out we've had two "9-to-1 up days" (March 6 and 21), which is technically very bullish, albeit somewhat marred by a "9-to-1- down day" March 13. In any case, I have great respect for Marty Zweig, so you need to take this into consideration before going short. (I've been holding an SDS position for a couple of days which I'm not ready to give up on, but it's small enough that I can afford to let it ride for now.)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/rare-bullish-technical-event-occurred/story.aspx?guid=%7B044DCFB1%2D41B2%2D469D%2D81C4%2D5F47257C268E%7D

2nd-

Looks like there may be a small gap up on the open tomorrow, which should be good for an intraday short. It does appear markets are headed higher near term (1-4 weeks as Bill suggests), just a test of say high 43s on the Qs before the next launch. I also learned from that Hulbert article (posted it here earlier today).

t4k

jogyp,

this won't help you, but i was walking through my friend's dorm the other day and I saw the following fact on the bulletin board:

22,000 checks are deposited into the wrong bank account every hour.

at the time i was skeptical and i thought, "how heck could anybody actually let that happen?" but i guess it might be true.

WPT-T

For anyone interested, Westport Technologies (WPT on the TSX), is showing me some technical indications that it's going to have another bullish run.

I had a good experience with this company at the end of 2006 when it was forming a beautifully extended bullish continuation triangle and then suddenly broke out to give me a 40% gain. (I locked in some profits by selling half my stake.)

Now, it seems to be in the early stages of forming another such pattern, (perhaps it won't be as extended), at a higher level.

This company makes after-market fuel systems for big diesels that improve fuel efficiency, so I like what they do in concept, but that's not to say I'm convinced of the fundamentals. This is about a technical trade. 7 or 8 years ago they were a darling of the west coast tech scene and the stock took off like a rocket when they first talked-up their technology. They crashed in 2001 when investors everywhere decided earnings might actually be more important than dreams, and have since been trying to become a real company.

Check it out and see for yourself if it suits you. It's a little thinly traded, but could be some fun for those inclined.

I'm holding some now and am looking for an ideal entry for some more.

Jogyp. Not an SEC problem but a Bank problem. You will have to ensure your deposit is backdated when they have time to deal with the mistake. Don't expect anything else unless your name is Donald Trump or Jim Cramer. Don't mean to be flippant but banks don't give a rats ass about the common folk.

t4k,

Thanks for the advice, I might try an intraday short to even things up a little. Sometimes I don't have time to read through the entire board before posting, and I figure it's better to hear something twice than not at all.

Sub-Prime:

You say it's just a bump in the road !!??
Check this story out:

With so many homeowners running into trouble, the City of Cleveland has been unable to keep track of the number of vacant houses, said Mark N. Wiseman, director of the county prevention program. He estimates that 10,000 of the city’s 84,000 single-family houses are empty.

Read on:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/23/us/23vacant.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th