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March 30, 2007

Cara’s Bull Board, Fri., Mar. 30, 2007, 7:47 AM

Who would have expected that yesterday could be a rally day (Dow +49 points) when May crude oil jumped +$1.97/bbl to $66.05 and the April gasoline contract lifted +7.7cents/gal to $2.13. Why, even the DJ Transports gained +0.2 pct and the Airlines (XAL -0.1 pct) were close.

No win for the Precious Metals yesterday, but that’s the thing about capital markets – none of us knows when a major central bank is going to dump gold on the market. The only thing we know is that when they do (i) it’s not their money, and (ii) they are never subtle about it.

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Yes, it’s our capital and our market and our need to build solid returns on our capital. But, with govt, all that goes out the window. They see the so-called “free” capital market as their policy instrument.

For those who doubt my words, wait a few days to get the European Central Bank report on the gold sales that occurred yesterday. Now I don’t know that for sure, but I’ll give 2 to 1 odds. Maybe 3 or 4 to 1. The fact is that we – the rightful owners and managers of capital – don’t throw away our assets, and it’s obvious to me when some govt lackey is doing that.

A +39 pct premium was offered yesterday by US Steel (X) to acquire the shares of Lone Star Steel (LSS).

Dell (DELL) is getting hammered since yesterday’s close, down about -10 pct, after management admitted to accounting shenanigans. Dell is a Cara 100, but the recent bump in the stock was used only for a short-term trade after DELL had reached the Cara Accumulation Zone. I warned that there was sector weakness that prevented me from making long-term purchases. I noted the recent changes in company management under Michael Dell would have been written up by Wall Street analysts in such a way that the psychology around the stock had changed. With last evening’s news, that will revert to the negative.

On a positive note, Credit Suisse has added farm and industrial machinery producer Caterpillar (CAT) to its focus list. One of my readers – a market pro – wrote me a couple months ago to say CAT was his stock choice for 2007.

Another interesting situation developed yesterday – in the Sub-prime mortgage industry nonetheless. Indymac Bancorp (NDE +5.1 pct) shares jumped for the second day, closing +22.6 pct higher than their close on March 13 close. Indymac reported their Sub-prime loan loss rate was just 0.0016 pct of the remaining unpaid principal balance, well below the 0.0056 pct rate of the industry. Indymac also says their Alt-A loan loss rate was just 0.008 pct (versus an industry average of 0.047 pct, which is 5.8 times higher). Michael W. Perry, Indymac's Chairman and CEO opined, "Based on an objective analysis of the facts, talk of the 'subprime contagion' spreading to the Alt-A sector of the mortgage market is, in our view, overblown."

The insiders then bought stock. I’m just wondering who lent them the money to buy it.

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Finally, the big econ reports today – all four – are ones that traders will pay more attention to. This morning is really important from the econ data perspective.


Interactive links


Econoday economic calendar


Asia-Pacific indices

Mostly up, but the gains are relatively subdued.


European indices

Mostly flat, but the London FTSE is putting on a brave face as is usually the case when a nation is facing an international crisis.


$USD Index

$USD is making some small gains (83.19 last) after a mid-day low of 82.78 on Wednesday.


U.S. Treasury Bond Jun. 2007 contract


NYMEX Oil Apr. 2007 contract

The May-07 e-MiNY’s have jumped to 66.60, which is a huge move north. The stories of “Peak Oil” and expanded Mid-East War and the 2007 hurricane season are being peddled.

UBS is forecasting a quarterly move to 69 with an average of 67. Why is it that in the first week of January I saw this coming with final price spikes in oil and gold (still to come) before the 2002-2007 stock market cycle comes to an end.


Gold spot chart

Spot gold is moderately softer overnight to 662.90. I still see this pull-back, like yesterday’s, as a time to buy.


Silver spot chart

Spot silver is up to 13.32, which is a gain of +2 since yesterday.


Platinum spot chart

Spot platinum is a little firmer overnight, now at 1238 after a 1242.50 high.


Palladium spot chart

Spot palladium is 352, which is up +5 from yesterday morning.


$CRB Index

$CRB lifted yesterday from 314.37 to 314.67. That’s elevated (+10.0 pct) from the 286 double bottom in January.


Open Futures Contracts


Goldminer stock watch

I think that, should the precious metal prices move up today, the miners and explorers will see higher prices for their stocks. Again, any pull-back is an opportunity for buying.


In Focus

Yesterday morning I decided to put only one stock from the Cara 100 or from anywhere else for that matter into the “In Focus” list. That stock was GOL – the Brazilian airline with the long name, but known for -- GOLLY -- its discount fares. And when you check the day’s winners, what stock do you see #1?

But you know there are “star” professors who say this market is random. You know why they say that? Because Wall Street’s HB&B want them to let you think there is a level playing field in the stock market where all the knowledge is shared by everybody at the same time and is factored into prices, but where if you go to a HB&B investment advisor they have the answers. NOT, NOT and NOT.

Actually I knew GOL was going to be golly yesterday. A Saudi prince told me he was going to buy the stock. A mystery banker told me he was lending the company a quarter billion so they could buy the Varig airline assets. Dream along.

Actually it was a random choice. I rolled the dice. (LOL)

You never know what I’m going to write because I don’t even know when I start a sentence (i) how its going to end, or (ii) if its going to end. I just type as fast as two fingers can go. Don’t think; just type.


Here are the current Cara 100 RSI-7 values, sorted by highest and lowest, first by Daily values and then by Monthly, prepared by “David”.

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Here are the interactive charts for yesterday’s RSI > 70 (12 of 18)

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Here are the interactive charts for yesterday’s RSI < 30 (8)


Here are the stocks in the Cara 100 trading at extreme values:

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No sirree; I am not ready to buy (Cara 100) Hovnanian (HOV) yet. I don’t think this is a normal cycle. It wasn’t for the cycle going up, and it won’t be coming down. And, it’s not about home-builders entirely, but about the fact (i) Americans are too loaded with debt to think about buying a new home versus say clearing some of that debt (ii) speculators have left the real estate market for the most part because cash on cash returns from rental real estate are too low (iii) the mortgage industry is tightening lending practices, and (iv) yields/rates are going to have to stay at these levels or move higher in order to arrest the inflation cycle (the one that central banks facilitated/encouraged during the 2002-2007 money printing run). So, maybe for HOV, I need to see the Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 all down below 20 before starting to accumulate? Can’t say at this point.



Here are the Cara 100 gainers on Thursday.

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Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

I finally got around to replacing RIMM in this screen with new Cara 100 Company Millicom (NDQ:MICC). If anybody has some Wall Street research on MICC, I would appreciate it. I just did a “Jock Gunter” top-down study to pick MICC. First I said, I like a company that has focused its business plan in the emerging markets, and I like wireless (people there steal the copper wires). I saw how well MICC is performing, with peer-beating margins and financial returns, and voila… There you have it. Now I need to study the company, and that’s where you all come in since this is a community project.

For the Cara 100 winners yesterday, did you take count of the mambo action from Brazil?


Here are the top Cara 100 losers for Thursday.

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Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

Did you take note of all the US tech companies that were sold off on a market rally day? Now, Mr Bull, you tell me how we are going to have new record highs for the US equity market (sometime soon) if a rebound market day is pulled back by the high-tech sector? It won’t happen, I say.


Here are the stocks of the Cara 100 for Thursday that hit 52-week intra-day highs.

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So, yesterday I spent the day in town. At a luncheon with stockbrokers, one of them says, “Did you see the C$7.50 target so-and-so put on Crystallex?” and I replied to the group, “And mine is $11 – so who cares? The point is that neither Gold Reserve nor Crystallex has a control block as far as I know, and there are at least six major gold miners that want to buy up both companies and make it into the biggest gold mine operation in the world. If you think Xstrata and CVRD over-paid for Falconbridge and Inco, just wait til you see this battle?"

But, my readers knew that already (LOL).

I should go into the Flor-Essence distribution business. I probably sold a dozen orders yesterday alone from the people I met. But then my wife was asking why I started coughing again tonight. I replied that, “I swallowed some water down the wrong place” and I hope that’s true. Without the coughing for two days after three months non-stop, I was feeling really good yesterday.

Regarding the influx of mail re RESEARCH: I will be meeting my publisher soon to discuss setting up a (confidential) mailing list on a system that beats the heck out of my Outlook Mail. And then I’ll start to send out research for discussion. The purpose of sharing research is that I know our crowd will spot much more than any one of us.

Finally, watch the spin on the four major US economic reports being published this morning. I believe that regardless of data negativity Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) is working closely with the Fed's Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson to pump this market yet another time. If they manage to pull it off, maybe with the help of farmers (LOL), I think it will be a final and wonderful opportunity to sell all non-core positions.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 30, 2007 07:47:32 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board

Discourse

hello from germany,

to me yesterday was mainly about window dressing.

Investing in distress / The vultures take wing / economist

plus

Builders on the block / uk (vs us builders)

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/

have a nice weekend

Posted by: jmf [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 8:04 AM [link]

here is more on the indy mac pr move

Demistyfying Indymac's Alt-A Lending Business

http://seekingalpha.com/article/31166?source=i_email&u=7518

Posted by: jmf [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 8:06 AM [link]

"A +39 pct premium was offered yesterday by US Steel (X) to acquire the shares of Lone Star Steel (LSS)."

The premium was only a smidge higher than what it was trading at Apr of last year. In fact each of the buyouts of these firms (NSS, HYDL, MVK and now NSS) were close to the apex last year. A reminder that even though the market may not value a company through its stock price, there is still value there that makes the organization ripe for plucking.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 8:27 AM [link]

Higher inflation and slower spending:

http://tinyurl.com/2z5dm8

Leisa, thanks for that link to the inflation lecture. It's been quite a number of years since I've sat through an econ lecture, but it was well worth the time.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 8:40 AM [link]

And Poland has been upgraded by S&P:

http://tinyurl.com/yu4h6a

As a number2son of South Chicago, where Polish jokes are a key ingredient of the cultural fabric, I have to say that this is the best indicator I have seen to date that the world markets are ready to topple. ;)

Dziekuje, S&P!

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 8:46 AM [link]

How many stockbrokers does it take to change a light bulb?
"My God! It burnt out!! Sell all my G.E. stock NOW!!!"
Two. One to take out the bulb and drop it, and the other to try and sell it before it crashes (knowing that it's already burned out).

A couple gems here.

http://www.quantnet.org/forum/showthread.php?t=1029

More info on current investment climate in Poland.

http://tinyurl.com/yraohl

Posted by: wavesmash [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 9:13 AM [link]

Taking a position in AMGN based on Phase II results for denosumab, a possible alternative treatment for osteoporosis. If approved, would compete with the biphosphonates (eg, Fosamax) and (intransal) calcitonin. There has recently been some negative publicity suggesting biphosphonates->osteonecrosis of the jaw, and many people elect not to use them. The market would also represent a major shift for Amgen, with sales targets expanding from oncology services (mainly for Aranesp and Epogen) into primary care. Finally, the stock has just been hit by disappointing results from Vectibix trials. So it just seems like a decent entry point.

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 9:37 AM [link]

btw, the date that displays for today's board should be adjusted to March 30

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 10:13 AM [link]

414maple:
from your post last night: "I trade options exclusively, and value the anecdotal and technical education you have provided on your website. One point I might add, which of course you can use or lose, is that I was taught if an out of the money put or call was more than 10% of the strike price, it would probably be hard going to make a profit."

again, please...414maple, or anyone else...I want to understand the lesson...this 10% differential...is it the out of the money strike price being 10% higher (or lower) than the current share price?

Posted by: joey [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 10:30 AM [link]

414maple:
from your post last night: "I trade options exclusively, and value the anecdotal and technical education you have provided on your website. One point I might add, which of course you can use or lose, is that I was taught if an out of the money put or call was more than 10% of the strike price, it would probably be hard going to make a profit."

again, please...414maple, or anyone else...I want to understand the lesson...this 10% differential...is it the out of the money strike price being 10% higher (or lower) than the current share price?

Posted by: joey [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 10:30 AM [link]

Indeed, NDE executives seem to have agreed that a show of unity was necessary at this juncture. They mostly went for $100k/$200k flat buys as if the company (or a main HB&B) is providing the margin loans.

While, on the surface, their claim of best-of-class deliquency rates provides powerful spin (I have not dived in the details yet to find if their approach is truly reflective of recent developments), they felt that these facts were not powerful enough signals that all is fine in IndyMac's Alt-A land. Are the wholesale lenders jittery and too willing to shrink exposure by quarter end that such a show of confidence is needed and would thwart a rush for the exit? Or do they face some big rollovers soon?

JML

Posted by: Jumble [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 10:40 AM [link]

Jumble,

check SeekingAlpha for an article written yesterday or today that dismisses the spin. sorry dont have the link.

Posted by: rob d [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 10:58 AM [link]

Hat tip to MarkM calling yesterday's positive close.

I've been reading a lot about the Fed lately. What it is and what it does, tempered with board's opinions (esp kaimu!).

Most of you may already know this information in one form or another, but I am discovering it for the first time myself and I'm proving to myself what has already been claimed by others on this board. I found the following rather disturbing, especially since it has literally come out the proverbial horse's mouth...

I came across an article called:
"Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here"
http://tinyurl.com/2wja
Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.

This is 2002, so he was not Fed. chairman yet, but it is foreshadowing for the most part where he is taking the Fed. Reserve and how he is doing it.

"What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

Of course, the U.S. government is not going to print money and distribute it willy-nilly (although as we will see later, there are practical policies that approximate this behavior). Normally, money is injected into the economy through asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. To stimulate aggregate spending when short-term interest rates have reached zero, the Fed must expand the scale of its asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets that it buys. Alternatively, the Fed could find other ways of injecting money into the system--for example, by making low-interest-rate loans to banks or cooperating with the fiscal authorities. Each method of adding money to the economy has advantages and drawbacks, both technical and economic. One important concern in practice is that calibrating the economic effects of nonstandard means of injecting money may be difficult, given our relative lack of experience with such policies. Thus, as I have stressed already, prevention of deflation remains preferable to having to cure it. If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation."

...

"Conclusion
Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy and should be strongly resisted. Fortunately, for the foreseeable future, the chances of a serious deflation in the United States appear remote indeed, in large part because of our economy's underlying strengths but also because of the determination of the Federal Reserve and other U.S. policymakers to act preemptively against deflationary pressures. Moreover, as I have discussed today, a variety of policy responses are available should deflation appear to be taking hold. Because some of these alternative policy tools are relatively less familiar, they may raise practical problems of implementation and of calibration of their likely economic effects. For this reason, as I have emphasized, prevention of deflation is preferable to cure. Nevertheless, I hope to have persuaded you that the Federal Reserve and other economic policymakers would be far from helpless in the face of deflation, even should the federal funds rate hit its zero bound."

Reckless, in my opinion, truly reckless given where we are now: housing/credit bubble with all that non-denumerable printed money, nose diving dollar, escalating inflation. Let's give them a pat on the back for such fine work in controlling the economy towards the people's best interests.

When did you last think about the notion that a group of people, unelected, unaccountable to you by any measure, who are members of a private corporation, somehow get to decide the fate of the US economy?

Your comments are welcome...

Posted by: onlineaces [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:00 AM [link]

AMGN

Hey 2nd...I wrote about AMGN yesterday. I am still in watch mode. I might bite above 56.40 though. I need some indication that the stock is turning upward.

Posted by: holdenll [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:15 AM [link]

Bill, in re KRY remarks, you are always interesting and enlightening! Good health to you.

Posted by: NT [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:16 AM [link]

rob d,

Thanks for the heads-up. Here is the link: http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/31166

JML

Disclosure: No current position in NDE. Was short through mid-March.

Posted by: Jumble [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:32 AM [link]

onlineaces,

While I am not an American, and perhaps should keep my thoughts to myself, I feel that the reality of today is far removed from the ideals of the founding fathers. Towit, your concerns about the FED, I saw snippets on tv yesterday of the yearly media/journalists/politicians bash with Bush mouthing a few jokes, and Karl Rove rapping. My immediate reaction was disgust and then sadness for the soldier/marine in Iraq. If the situation is as bad as they are portraying, then the elite could be attempting to share the burden. Obviously no sign of that, and don't hold your breath waiting for it. Democracy it is not!

Bill; Glad to see that health is on the mend. Really appreciate your feedback on Flor-Essence. Looking forward to ongoing comments on this product.

And still wondering why KRY has better pricing than GRZ given KRY has 14M oz. and 224M shares, and GRZ has 10M oz. and 39M shares?

Posted by: npmg [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:33 AM [link]

onlineaces,

While I am not an American, and perhaps should keep my thoughts to myself, I feel that the reality of today is far removed from the ideals of the founding fathers. Towit, your concerns about the FED, I saw snippets on tv yesterday of the yearly media/journalists/politicians bash with Bush mouthing a few jokes, and Karl Rove rapping. My immediate reaction was disgust and then sadness for the soldier/marine in Iraq. If the situation is as bad as they are portraying, then the elite could be attempting to share the burden. Obviously no sign of that, and don't hold your breath waiting for it. Democracy it is not!

Bill; Glad to see that health is on the mend. Really appreciate your feedback on Flor-Essence. Looking forward to ongoing comments on this product.

And still wondering why KRY has better pricing than GRZ given KRY has 14M oz. and 224M shares, and GRZ has 10M oz. and 39M shares?

Posted by: npmg [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:36 AM [link]

here comes the shocker

Commerce Dept. sanctions China over subsidy dispute

The U.S. Commerce Department announced sanctions against China on Friday in connection with a dispute over paper subsidies. Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said the U.S. has the right to apply countervailing duties to Chinese paper imports, which he said threaten U.S. products

i´m not sure if this is the right approach ...? some might have forgotten that they need china to fund their deficit........

here is the cartoon that sums it up....

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/03/china-and-its-region-economist.html

$ is already plunging!


Posted by: jmf [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:43 AM [link]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aORxJkhpYd54&refer=home

The above Bloomberg article gives me some hope that my observations regarding potential problems in the the CDO market have some glimmer of merit.

I think that we have moved from the "no sub-prime contagion" to a realization that these structured finance "offerings" are going to end up in places where there is going to be much pain. Note the Deloitte item in FT.com. For example, insurance companies (notably--I say notably because I've noted it--Hartford (HIG)) have these assets on their books. IF the ratings change on these little gems, then there is potentially going to be a sell off and some ugly mark to market losses. That's my thesis anyway, and I do not have any special knowledge about it, other than when I go poking around, I find some very alarming (to me anyway, maybe it is just normal stuff) things.

Thi

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:52 AM [link]

"When did you last think about the notion that a group of people, unelected, unaccountable to you by any measure, who are members of a private corporation, somehow get to decide the fate of the US economy?"
Eversince i understood how most of the money in the world is created.
Not only does the US fed decide the fate of the US economy but by default the fate of most of the world.
Would it not be nice, just for once, the Mr. Bernanke would be asked the following questions by the Joint Econmic Committee of Congres on the economic oulook :
- who is your boss Mr.Bernanke, who "owns" your private company?Who are your shareholders?
- as a private company, how do you make money?
- how much money did the Fed make since 1917?(year of birth of the Fed as we know it)
- how much gold is there left in Fort Knoxx?
Any chance getting those questions being asked?

Posted by: HugoB [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 11:52 AM [link]

Hi Bill.

I had made a note for INFY after reading earlier post for $48 - and it is coming close (49.25 right now from 60 on 2/21) -

While I did not get chance to read much - but one of the reason may be Indian Rupee appreciating vis-a-vis USD.

I wanted to know how you (or other readers) are feeling about INFY now. Thanks for everything that you do for this community.

Posted by: Rick [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 12:22 PM [link]

NPMG,
I am an American. (ducking)....
Please, as long as it is okay with Bill, share your opinions about America, Americans and our corrupt system.

We need it. Most of us are fairly dim and we don't get out to see the rest of the world much, except to kill people we don't understand.

Did I mention we need it? Desperately.
Let it fly, the truth hurts but it really is necessary.

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 12:33 PM [link]

I am wondering about the GRZ market cap versus KRY as well. GRZ also has the rights to its property whereas KRY only has a contract.

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 12:40 PM [link]

I have DBA, an agricultural etf. I've seen it move with and against oil. Oil up does make crops more expensive, but dba is not the farmer, it's the crop. Any thoughts on what looks like a signficant drop in ag prices, alongside what I hear is pressure on the dollar from the chineese. Is the drop in food prices from fear of protectionism? I can't say I have a good fix on DBA other than low correlation with the general market.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 12:44 PM [link]

Hello Bill (or anyone),
I just noticed that a 3.4 million share cross was facilitated by Wellington on WGI/WGDF. Is there any significance to an event like this?

12:38:38 T 2.20 -0.11 3,454,400 12 Wellington 12 Wellington K >>>>>

The price got knocked down about 8-9 cents to facilitate the trade.
Thank you,
tom

Posted by: golden7 [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 12:53 PM [link]

MU up today in a down market. Just wondering if the price movement in MU recntly is due to the end of quarter window dressing.
I am curious to see how it closes today.
Any thoughts, anyone.

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 1:13 PM [link]

Yen should continue to show strength as it is the end of the FY in Japan which typically brings repatriation of funds back home. Japanese household spending is also picking up and unemployment is at an eight year low. Looks like interest rates could be raised by BOJ in the near future bringing additional support to JPY.

jasper--a look at what makes up DBA would offer clues. I don't have the DBA composition readily available but you should know. As info, earlier reports had planting of corn higher than expected and soybeans down in planting. There's been a lot of money pushing the corn/ethanol play. I noticed a "corn" play CPO is down @ 1.7% today. Good luck!

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 1:13 PM [link]

Further to Seamus' post, corn is down daily limit of 20 cents/ bushel which is a 5 or 6% drop:

http://tinyurl.com/2hp3z3

Corn makes up 25% of DBA:

http://www.dbfunds.db.com/dba/index.aspx

So that would explain about 1.5% of drop in DBA...

Posted by: proudPapa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 1:27 PM [link]

jasper -

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070330/planting_report.html?.v=3

could be some early exiting by traders. if corn makes up 25% of the index, and there are so many more acres being devoted to it, then there is the possibility of oversupply. just an amateurs' guess.

Posted by: rob d [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 1:32 PM [link]

Diversify your portfolio with Hemisphere Gold, Inc. (HPGI)

www.hemispheregold.com

Investor Relations: Call 888-548-8444

ir@hemispheregold.com

Posted by: Stockblogger [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 1:40 PM [link]

also jasper - if you want an ag play, try some POT (the legal kind :) ) fertilizer company, but it has gone up alot over the past three months.

although i am not sure about whether the stuff they mine is needed in large amounts for corn, there was a pop in the stock today, possibly related to the increase in corn acreage news.

Posted by: rob d [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 2:09 PM [link]

Thanks guys, ouch still hurts, learning experience, long term hold, so should be no big deal

http://etf.seekingalpha.
com/article/25746

Found this article, somebody did their homework quite nicely.

Looks like the perception that the historical high prices in corn can not be sustained in light of more planting versus percpetion of growth as the primary driver.

Food will be cheaper...but grist for the fed to monkey their numbers.

Posted by: jasper [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 2:11 PM [link]

DBA is corn, soybeans, sugar and I believe, wheat.

The 52 wk low is 24.50 and it doesn't move much. It drops to 24.50 - 25 and up to 27 or so and back.
I would be patient, much depends on weather, how many acres will end up in soybeans due to weather.
Just my amateur opinion.
No position in DBA.
Long MOS

Posted by: Craig [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 2:25 PM [link]

there is an important lesson to be learned by the large drop in corn prices that occurred with the usda report today.
NEVER INVEST IN ANYTHING WHEN THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF PUBLIC HYPE CONNECTED TO AN ITEM..
for the past three months the world has been told how corn could only go up..the investment of a life time, and other assorted hype!!!
this guaranteed that the next move in price could only be down!!!!
once all the sheep would b e fleeced then the price would be allowed to move up...
therefore when corn and soybean prices have stabilized after this washout, they will begin a sustainable rise..
the crops haven't even been planted,weather concerns will mount, yield problems will arise due to all the marginal new land that will be used to expand production and reality will set in..
LOOKING FORWARD TO A LOW RISK ENTRY POINT..
SO IT HAS BEEN AND SO IT WILL ALWAYS BE...

PEOPLE NEVER LEARN..
GREED AND FEAR ALWAYS RULE WHEN IT COMES TO HUMAN EMOTIONS.
THAT IS THE ONLY CONSTANT IN HUMAN HISTORY!!!

Posted by: mbernold [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 2:44 PM [link]

Anyone out there know what is the usual expiration duration of the puts that Bill likes to sell to either lower his basis and/or make some premium income. It would seem that the trade-off is to go further out and make more in premium but take on more risk in so doing.

Any thoughts from the option pros among you?

Toby

Posted by: bdtobias [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 2:50 PM [link]

KRY:
False rumours flying in the Yahoo message boards this afternoon causing KRY to drop to 3.41
I can't see this so called new anywhere in Fidelity news.
Buying more at 3.50

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:02 PM [link]

jasper wrote: "Food will be cheaper..."

I disagree. Food, especially meat, will be more expensive this summer. Why? The price of feed grains including corn. Last year corn was about $1.65; about a week ago I think it was easily over $4 a bushel. Consumers will have to pay.
The ethanol hype goes beyond the price to you and me for corn on the cob at a picnic. Cattle need feed grains for the best meat. Grass fed works but it's not the same. And now the politicians are even on the bandwagon as they campaign in Midwest states for next year's February primaries.

What this means is the food component of the cost of living will rise and place even more inflationary pressure upon the fed. Just my 2 cents, but with housing crumbling, it looks like stagflation to me.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:20 PM [link]

In looking at the earnings release, it appears that the company was sited for a material weakness in internal controls in their Venezuelan operations to include the granting of service contracts and in the handling of certain tax matters.
----------------------------------------
This information in light of the loss of the CFO and their external auditors. . . means that you can expect some additional surprises.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:22 PM [link]

re prior post--to clarify

And now the politicians are even on the bandwagon as they campaign in Midwest states for corn based ethanol in preparation for courting voters in next year's February presidential primaries.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:23 PM [link]

http://www.crystallex.com/News/PressReleases/PressReleaseDetails/2007/CrystallexReports2006YearEndResults/default.aspx

Here's the link to the release.

I should qualify my above statement from "can" expect to "may reasonable expect."

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:24 PM [link]

I have emailed r marshall the link to the reuters article which needs translation; any spanish speaking members here?

But my only comment is, if this is not true, why doesnt the company refute this as quickly as they refuted the polyus rumors?

http://tinyurl.com/2otl5j

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:32 PM [link]

Leisa,

If you go back on the financial statments that was alwasy expressed.

I should qualify my above statement from "can" expect to "may reasonable expect."

Posted by: Leisa at March 30, 2007 3:24 PM

Posted by: norm [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:40 PM [link]

I used translation software and isn't great but the basics are there.

CARACAS (Reuters) - the Canadian Crystallex must modify the project of operation of the auriferous deposit the Cristinas to diminish its ecological impact, in order to obtain the environmental permission of the Venezuelan authorities, said to Friday a civil employee of the Ministry of the Atmosphere. The miner, who has years hoping operation authorizations, was to optimist this week after which the Ministry also gave to the infrastructure permission to the Canadian Gold Reserve for the gold deposit Breezes. The executive president of the company, Gordon Thompson, said Thursday that governmental civil employees in Venezuela confirmed to him that the permission was in the final stage of approval. But, the chief of a main directorate of Planning and Arrangement of the Ministry of the Atmosphere, Sergio Rodriguez, said to Reuters that "the exposition (of infrastructure) that makes Crystallex is a project (to) that it was done many objections to him."

Posted by: bobj [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:44 PM [link]

bobj, do you have link?

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 3:52 PM [link]

So, it seems that there changes that need to be made to the plans, and apparently, Rodriguez has some reservations (objections?).

From the press release I saw, Las Brisas is a completely separate project, so infering approval of one as meaning approval of another might be a leap. But, heck, I do not know.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:02 PM [link]

Jogy, you could just click on NYU's link above...

Posted by: TimG [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:02 PM [link]

I used the link in NYUgrad's posting:
http://tinyurl.com/2otl5j

Posted by: bobj [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:03 PM [link]

If someone could translate the last sentence properly, it would clarify the meaning immensely. At this point I don't know what it is saying.
. .. "el planteamiento (de infraestructura) que hace Crystallex es un proyecto (al) que se le hizo muchas objeciones."

Posted by: bobj [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:08 PM [link]

Leisa, that is basically correct. Here's my translation/interpretation of the relevant parts:

1st paragraph: "Canada's Crystallex should must modify the exploration of Las Cristinas project to minimize its ecological impact, in order to obtain the environmental permit."

2nd and 3rd paragraphs just relate to this week's past news.

4th paragraph: "Sergio Rodriguez, general director of Planning for the Ministry of the Environment, said that "the infrastructure approach proposed by Crystallex is a project to which many objections have been made."


Glad I sold the whole thing today (just because I did not want to hold anything over the weekend), will try to buy it back cheaper later.


Now, tonight it's Santa Carolina night.

Posted by: SiO2 [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:08 PM [link]

Sorry about duplication, but translation is correct as provided by "bobj".

Posted by: Horatio [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:10 PM [link]

if this report is false, I will be reporting this to the SEC. They need to corner the reporter with jail time and get to his puppet masters. A fine will not suffice! shorts/hedges can pay that without blinking, on his behalf. enough is enough. I suspect this goes on alot, not just kry.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:13 PM [link]

I was wondering what was causing Agnico-Eagle to fall lately. Here is probably why:

From the Globe and Mail, Mar 29, 2007

CIBC lowers Agnico-Eagle rating for the short term

CIBC World Markets Inc. analyst Barry Cooper likes the medium- to long-term outlook for Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., especially the pipeline of projects which he calls "unequaled" in the industry's intermediate category. But short term, he has concerns about Agnico's recent stock price climb combined "with our anticipation of an upcoming downward correction."

Weighing the pros and cons, he has downgraded the gold and zinc miner to "sector underperformer" from "sector perform." His 12- to 18-month target price remains unchanged at $50 (U.S.), compared with a close of $36.48 on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday. He supports his target price with a multiple of 21 times estimated cash flow of $2.33 a share this year.

Based on zinc price pullbacks and a potential profit shortfall, though, Mr. Cooper says the stock price could slip to the $30 range. "Any retreat of the shares should be considered a buying opportunity."

Posted by: Dave [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:14 PM [link]

SiO2, I have more work for you if you would be kind enough...There seems to be a part II.

http://tinyurl.com/2telmc

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:24 PM [link]

Re: KRY

There appears to be two very surmountable issues that KRY must ( and will ) deal with. The first is the recovery of cyanides that are used in heap-leaching recovery ,and the second is having a plan for efficient development of other metals such as copper. It seems to me that Sergio Rodriguez has played the role of the spoiler before, and I would love to be a fly on the wall in his broker's office.

Posted by: TerryC [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:28 PM [link]

Norm, I didn't note any notation of "material" weaknesses in their internal controls in any other filings, and I didn't see it in their 2005 financial statements. Where did you see it? Perhaps I'm blind.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:33 PM [link]

NYU: It basically says the two projects (KRY & GRZ) are a given/go, and that KRY will get the permit when they address the concerns. One concern is using or recovering the byproduct metals (copper, specifically) and another is destruction of the cynaide used in heap/leach gold mining. The permits to place infrastructure have been granted, but they need the enviro permit to commence mining operatations. And a joint EIR was requested for the impact of both projects.

Posted by: Alaskan Pete [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:34 PM [link]

Thx alaskan pete,

the 1st report seemed to omit 3/4 of the rest of the story; which qualifies as a half truth and a lie. Reuters is investigating now i believe. but regardless I will try to report it to the SEC but being that this project is in VZ, i suspect my complaint will end up in their spam folders. With knowledge that the keys to the largest untapped gold mine sits on two conditions, i dont think fung, gordon, marshall, etc are just sitting around waiting by the fax.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:38 PM [link]

It seems like a carefully orchastrated manipulation with the news story. Few posters at Yahoo board starts mentioning the story, first without a link. Then the link appears with part of the story. Then full story after the market closes..

I smelled foul play from the very beginning, and Added more KRY shares.

Posted by: JogyP [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 4:47 PM [link]

NYU, I am not a translator, but this is what you get after a few glasses:

"KRY has not acted responsibly in formulating the project as it should be formulated, so that it has the least environmental objections."

However, he assured that the environmental permit will be issued if the problems are solved.

"The decision made is that these two projects go (ahead). But what they have to assure us as the Environment Ministry, is the there is the least effect on the environment."

There was no one at KRY immediately available to comment on this information.

According to Rodriguez, the difference between the KRY and the GRZ projects is that the latter utilizes the copper that is found with gold, while at the same time destroying the cyanide used to extract the mineral.

"We demand that they (the companies) enter in an agreement and that we seek the alternative to utilize the copper."

[KRY already has the operational permit ...]

The concession is with CVG [...]

Rodriguez explained that the gold exploration projects in southern Venezuela must obtain first an environmental assessment permit in order to build the infrastructure (already obtained by Las Brisas), and then they must obtain an environment license to [...] extract the gold.

Furthermore, the authorities have asked for a joint environmental impact study for the two projects.

In addition, MIBAM (Ministry of basic industries and miners) must also issue other operational permits for the projects.

[stock prices...]

Posted by: SiO2 [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 5:12 PM [link]

Here is the reply by KRY as found on yahoo:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070330/0233390.html

Posted by: Steven [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 5:13 PM [link]

For grins, I went to the Yahoo message board for KRY. It felt like one of those places I wouldn't dare go, like a biker bar (apologies).

That place is a miasma. ONe person saying "Both projects are a go!" Well these projects, insofar as my understanding goes, have both been a go, but it was the environmental permit that has been wanting.

I note the following from the press release from Reuters (translated using a translater):

" Crystallex has not acted responsibly in formulating the project it must formulate as it (for) that has the smaller environmental objections, " it added without determining a term to the possible modifications.

However, it assured that the Ministry of the Atmosphere is prepared to authorize the leave to Crystallex if the problems are resolved."

So more of the same. That should be no surprise. I think that folks got their underwear in a bind thinking that Las Brisas and Las Cristinas were so similar that actions one place fortold beneficient action at the other place.

I'm sure that KRY executives will issue a release in response to this story.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 5:13 PM [link]

KRY speaks to the issue:

"Crystallex Comments on Reuters Story


17:04 EDT Friday, March 30, 2007

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - March 30, 2007) - Crystallex International Corporation (TSX:KRY) (AMEX:KRY) today issued the following statement in response to inquires concerning a Reuters story from its Caracas Bureau:

Crystallex has spoken to Senior Officials at the Ministry of Environment ("MARN") and to Mr. Sergio Rodriguez who was quoted in the Reuters article.

The Senior Officials contacted at MARN told the Company that the Reuters story does not reflect the statements made by Mr. Rodriguez and that they are contacting Reuters in order to correct the mis-statements.

Crystallex is in the final stages of environmental permitting for the Las Cristinas project and looks forward to the timely conclusion of the permitting process at MARN."
----------

I added 20% to my existing position on the weakness to bring my cost basis up to 3.02

Posted by: Alaskan Pete [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 5:16 PM [link]

Steven thanks for the link to Crystallex's official response. off to the SEC i go. enjoy your weekends everyone.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 5:18 PM [link]

KRY is like a soap opera...I cannot wait for the next installment. Though the mgt's refrain of "we are in the final stages" is sounding a wee bit long in the tooth." In due time, all will be known.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 5:49 PM [link]

All of this serves to demonstrate that it's primarily fools who surf stock message boards. Never have. Never will.

Posted by: FozzieBear [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 6:10 PM [link]

Fozzie, you are primarily correct. But then again, where else can one go to find such abundance of bad grammar, ignorance, fear, greed, raw hysteria, vulgarity, malice and borderline pychosis? The KRY board, in particular, is a special kind of gathering place for this kind of behavior.

Myself, I wear goggles and nose plugs when I visit that zoo.

P.S. - Horatio, shame on you for posting that super long link. 8( Use tinyurl, amigo.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 6:18 PM [link]

JogyP: Thanks for your 3pm post-I took another shot at KRY a few cents higher than you.

I doubt anyone on this board would recommend venturing into the sub-prime stocks, but I also took a shot at FMT and LEND at the close. Will probably pay a price for it, but I decided a few days ago if prices were to drop this far I'd take that chance. If anyone else has, would appreciate hearing your comments.

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 6:19 PM [link]

Alaskan Pete! What are you doing gracing our pages? :) Good to see you here.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 6:25 PM [link]

number2son. I did say sorry. I think one of Hugo's tinyturl mice got caught up in the translation wheel on the way from VZ via Reuters. What amases me is that Reuters allows it's America Latina (Quito Office)documents to be translated without a care in the world.

Posted by: Horatio [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 6:41 PM [link]

is it just me, or are we see'ing inflation right in front of us?
the price of milk is going up
the price of beef is going up
the price of oil is going up

looks like our dollar is buying less and less now'adays!

time to raise rates!
but, we all know the fed wont do that so its time to buy some more gold!

by the way, what do all you savvy investors think of BRK?

thanks!

Posted by: rwedoomed? [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 7:16 PM [link]

Markets DO seem jittery when dealing with 21st century socialists ! - Feels to me like some of those "translations" are being used by traders to seed volatility. BTW, who is Ant&Sons?

http://www.antandsons.com/2007/03/reuters-story-tanks-crystallex-shares.html

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 8:16 PM [link]

Gas in San Francisco is $3.55 - 3.60 and fruits have gone from $.80 - $1.00 to $1.00 to $1.29...milk up from $2.00 to $2.20 a half gallon.

Posted by: bbcmoney [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 8:42 PM [link]

There is too much KRY-ing on this board. Todays action was entirely predictable. These negative stories appear every few months and the stock tanks for an hour as the paranoid sell at any price and the funds buy like mad at a discount - bear raid. It went to $2.25 in January on the thing. With this stock you need to tune out the hysteria and just patiently wait for the permit. It is up strongly in after hours trading.

As part of the permit process Venezuela asked KRY and GRZ to find common solutions to a few issues, such as sharing KRY's airstrip rather than building another. Do you think VZ will then deny KRY the permit when GRZ's environmental plan calls for cooperation with Crystallex? Come on. It won't come next week though as Easter holiday is a week long event in VZ apparently. Week after is more probable.

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 30, 2007 9:48 PM [link]

BRK is a wonderful core holding. Assemble a core of low beta, steady growth names like, BRK, PG, JNJ, BAC etc and trade your volatile classes like energy and gold around it. Simple. Safer. Sounder. Sleep well at night.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 31, 2007 6:15 AM [link]


Reuters is standing by their story andthey have the tapes to prove it. This is going to be an interesting week for KRY. It is getting too weird now. I do not see much wiggle room here.

Crystallex must vary plan for mine gold Venezuela
Saturday 31 of March, 2007 6:48 GMT
 
By Patricia Rondón Espin

CARACAS (Reuters) - the Canadian Crystallex must modify the project of operation of the auriferous deposit the Cristinas in Venezuela to diminish its ecological impact, in order to obtain the environmental permission, said to Friday a civil employee of the Ministry of the Atmosphere.

The miner, who has years hoping operation authorizations, was to optimist this week after which the Ministry also gave to the infrastructure permission to the Canadian Gold Reserve for the gold deposit Breezes.

The executive president of the company, Gordon Thompson, said Thursday that governmental civil employees in Venezuela confirmed to him that the permission was in the final stage of approval.

But, the chief of a main directorate of Planning and Arrangement of the Ministry of the Atmosphere, Sergio Rodriguez, said to Reuters that “the exposition (of infrastructure) that makes Crystallex is a project (to) that many objections were done to him.”

“Crystallex has not acted responsibly in formulating the project as it must formulate it (for) that has the smaller environmental objections,” added without fixing a term to the possible modifications.

However, it assured that the Ministry of the Atmosphere is arranged to authorize the leave to Crystallex if the problems are resolved.

“The given decision is that those two projects go. But what they have to guarantee us us as Ministry of the Atmosphere is the smaller affectation to the atmosphere,” explained.

Hours later, Crystallex it emitted an official notice in Toronto assuring that authorities nonidentified of the Ministry, affirmed that Reuters had not reflected the commentaries of Rodriguez and who the Ministry would contact to Reuters to correct the information.

The authorities did not make contact with enemy with Reuters, that has the recording of all the conversations with Rodriguez.

In a brief later telephone interview with Rodriguez, to clarify the observations of Crystallex, the civil employee affirmed that the project for the Cristinas would have variations.

It referred that the confusion with respect to its commentary could be derived from a mistaken interpretation of which the miner would have to make a new project.

“Elements to the project are due to incorporate,” affirmed after insisting on that it would not be a new project.

Reuters Thursday asked an interview the minister of the Atmosphere, Yuvirí Ortega, and she designated to Rodriguez to speak on the project the Cristinas.

The company insisted on the official notice that is next to obtain the environmental permission.

“Crystallex is in the final stage to obtain the environmental permissions for the project the Cristinas and waits for quick conclusions,” emphasized.

TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF COPPER

According to Rodriguez, the difference between the project of Crystallex and the one of Gold Reserve are that this last one takes advantage of the copper that along with is gold in the deposit, to the time that destroys the cyanide that is used to extract the mineral.

“It is demanded to them (to the companies) that is agreed and which we look for the alternative so that it takes advantage of copper,” affirmed.

Crystallex already counts on the contract of operation for the mine Cristinas, considered one of the greatest auriferous deposits of the world with reserves considered of 13.6 million ounces of gold, according to the company.

The concession of the mine is in the name of the state Venezuelan Corporation of Guayana (CVG).

Rodriguez explained the auriferous projects of the south of Venezuela need a first permission environmental impact to construct their infrastructure, that the Breezes already received, and soon must obtain another environmental license to open the graves and to remove gold.

In addition, the authorities also requested a study of joint environmental impact for both projects.

On the other hand, the Ministry of Basic Industries and Minings (Miban) also must authorize other leave of operation to the projects.

The actions of Crystallex got to fall Friday around a 14 percent to a minimum intraday of 3.85 dollars Canadian (3.33 dollars American). Soon the titles recovered until becoming stabilized in 4,23 dollars Canadian (3.55 dollars American).

Posted by: yaba [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 31, 2007 12:26 PM [link]

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