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March 28, 2007

A new friend in Hugo?, Wed., Mar. 28, 2007, 11:11 AM

Isn’t it amazing that just when US oil supplies might be threatened in the Gulf Straits of Hormuz that Venezuelan oil looks pretty good, and the Venezuela govt sees fit to approve the gold mining environmental permit of Gold Reserve Inc (GRZ)?

Last evening I figured something was up as I received a number of e-mails on this situation.

As for Crystallex (KRY), I suppose they will soon get their permit as well, and the share price will zoom. I expect it will move even further north after one of at least six mining companies starts to bid for control. But, that’s nothing new.

zzk018.gif

Early today, Jock had sent along a note that “FYI, re KRY Financial Times columnist James Altucher reported today that "high quality mutual fund Jennison Natural Resources is accumulating the stock". (Last year, Yahoo Finance lists their return as 28%).”


ADDENDUM: 11:24am ET

GRZ up +49 pct and KRY up +19 pct. Incredible volume on KRY.

zzk019.gif


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on March 28, 2007 11:11:41 AM | Category: Goldminer Producers

Discourse

Wow! - this story never ceases to amaze me. Luckily I was patient and disciplined enough to hold and accumulate, very difficult with so much noise revolving this issue. Thank You Mr. Cara...

Posted by: sergio [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 11:42 AM [link]

Screamer (Cramer) just mentioned KRY on CNBC and it spiked up to 3.80. He'll probably tout it again tonight, and we'll see another bump !

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 2:51 PM [link]

Cramer is really something. Pick the stock last year on national TV, pan it three times afterward, and then come out for it after it has spiked. Perhaps he is engaging in some of his hedge fund 'tactics'?

IMO he is a great contra-tell. People buy to ridiculous levels on his recommendation. The stock then becomes a great short days later as people lose patience.

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 3:30 PM [link]

If Cramer says "back up the truck" then every grandmother and her mother will be on board for a piece of KRY. I'm sure many will now be thinking Hugo is not such a bad lad after all.

Posted by: Horatio [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 3:44 PM [link]

Oh no, that guy is a pied piper for attention deficit traders who pile on and pile off.

Should make for an interesting conclusion to the month, anyway.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 3:57 PM [link]

Any thoughts on GRZ going forward. Outstanding Shares number seems quite small for a speculative trade.

Posted by: longhorn [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 4:15 PM [link]

I'd think GRZ will rise, as word gets out to the herd, and as senior miners circle ...

There's also a chance KRY will be allowed to twist in the breeze for a while. (Perhaps VZ wants to extract more concessions, formal and informal).

But as the better known play, isn't KRY also likely to rise even before license award?

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 4:51 PM [link]

Jock,

what cramer said this afternoon will be replayed tonight. all the shows are taped. Someone correct me if i am wrong.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 5:07 PM [link]

Re: KRY

Just wondering what type of gain everyone is expecting if and when Crystallex does receive its permits. A quick look at a 10 year chart shows a max price of about $8.00 back around 1998 and then $6.00 last year. Can we expect it to hit these previous highs? would anyone care to provide a suggestion for a selling point?
Now, suppose a major miner offers to buy Crystallex for say $6.00 a share, would that be the extent of shareholder gains?
Any ideas would be much appreciated.

Posted by: Eric [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 5:15 PM [link]

Eric and NYUgrad:

As I remember, there were earlier estimates on this blog that KRY over a period including a bid from a senior gold co. could reach $12 or more. I think if you search this blog for posts on KRY you can find specifics.

NYUgrad: Screamer (Cramer) made his KRY comments on that Erin whatever's CNBC show at mid afternoon - which I don't believe is taped. Per cramersez.com he did NOT mention KRY today in his own show. (I don't have the pain-tolerance to listen to the show itself.)

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 7:15 PM [link]

Jock you were right about the screamer.

As far as pps estimates post permit, I rather not guess until the P. but here are some interesting links to the Bolivar acquisition by Goldfields in 2006.

http://tinyurl.com/2eapwh
http://tinyurl.com/2eqsak

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 28, 2007 11:41 PM [link]

moab-
I agree about shorting Cramer recommended stocks 1-2 days after his comments. It is almost boringly simple if you set cover target at reasonably small fraction (say 20-30%) of retrace of the stock move initiated by his comments. Now he can get 100% of the move but I am not that greedy. This btw has nothing to do with KRY, more of a general observation.

Posted by: occam_razor [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 29, 2007 1:16 AM [link]

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