Unfortunately, despite the claims of some hedgies, we mere mortals haven’t quite mastered the Alpha and Beta Quadrants. Our starship Enterprise (of the Federation Starfleet) seems to be lost somewhere in space.

Yes, I have to admit that I have been stuck in Delta Quadrant, while misjudging the imperialistic intentions of Romulan Captains Bush, Bernanke and Paulson, and their impressive foray into the Beta Quadrant.

However, Colin Twiggs has issued a warning: “The Dow Jones Industrial Average has passed its target of 12500 (11600+[11600-10700]) and is signaling further accumulation, with Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) making a new high above [2]. (However), [for reasons he explains in the detail below] this is not a good time to enter the trend as it is already extended.”

This week, Value Line has given us their quarterly update report on (Cara 100) Disney (DIS) and (former Cara 100) 3M (MMM). I’ll review these companies in this WIR.

I thought, when I first looked at my calendar, it was Exxon Mobil (XOM), but I’m already a month ahead of myself. I was even thinking (re XOM) I would have to pass along the warning issued by a senior auto executive (ROBTV yesterday I think, although the video image was blurry as our rocketship passed by the Casimir Vacuum) that within 20 years our vehicles will be powered by hydrogen and not hydrocarbons.

Speed kills. Somehow, in the midst of all this warp-speed confusion, I am (regrettably?) stuck in the belief that there is a fundamental relationship between cause and effect, ie, in the notion of causality, which I have often explained, in this Commander's Log, is the precept on which I have constructed my entire approach to trading, ie, around market structure and the drivers that push and pull prices.

What happens if I am wrong and Gene Roddenberry had it right all along?

And, you know, it was just last year I rejected the work of John F. Sowa, who has posited in this new millennium that "relativity and quantum mechanics have forced physicists to abandon these (basic relativity of time) assumptions as exact statements of what happens at the most fundamental levels, but they remain valid at the level of human experience."

Oh my, and “Leisa” thought my recent pneumonia was just bad karma. Maybe, it’s possible that Bernanke really is Superman.

Do you think?

In any event I need to take a break to return to Starfleet headquarters. I have to re-think my philosophy and approach to trading as well as enjoy a few Kalik. Nothing too serious.

I’ll be rocketing to the Starfleet Presidio (Nassau Bahamas) on Tuesday (after I present my morning report aka the Commander's Log), and returning Thursday evening, in time for Friday's report.

Forty-eight hours ought to be enough to re-charge my ch'i, but these Romulans are formidable foes, you know.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: The key Tokyo (Nikkei 225) rallied +371 pts to 17,875.65. Shanghai rallied strongly every day this week, closing at 6419.59, up +37 pts. Canada was up +228 pts to 13,311.95. India and Russia markets still are looking shaky in 2007. But, technically speaking, despite lofty levels, this is a global Bull market.

U.S. Equities : The Russell small cap (+1.4 pct), S&P 500 (+1.2 pct), Nasdaq (+1.5 pct) and the Dow 30 (+1.5 pct). After a rough Friday a week ago, I wrote: “The action on Monday in international markets and the open in NY will speak volumes.” The market is now clearly saying Bull. The “Melt-up” continues. I remain nervous.

Dow 30 : A week earlier there were 8 Dow stocks up and 22 down, but this week it was 27 up and only 3 down (MSFT, PFE and JNJ). Traders are saying the present Bull move is due to higher consumer spending in a constrained inflationary environment, but personal savings are negative, wage demand is growing, the 3 losers on the week are consumer tech and healthcare, and the five biggest winners are (drum roll) capex beneficiaries (higher inflation and interest rates to follow): AA, CAT, HON, MMM and DD. So if the Bulls are going to get their story straight, they had better understand this stuff and explain why the yield curve is rapidly weakening. As I see it, this is a perfect set up for selling into strength, or at least switching from the over-bought stocks into long-term depressed stocks of sound companies.

U.S. Sector ETFs: After a week earlier when there was 1 ETF up (XLU) and nine down, this week it was 9 up and 1 down (XLE). The big day was Tuesday, starting a couple hours before Bernanke addressed Congress, and peaked Wed afternoon after Bernanke was finished.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #10 (-0.7 pct); The Crude futures couldn’t break 60
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #1 (+3.0 pct); Excess cash chasing metals cos.
20: Industrials (XLI): #2 (+2.2 pct); GE recovered, but hit -0.8 pct Fri.
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #7 (+1.1 pct); Lagging sector on the week
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #6 (+1.5 pct); Nothing special
35: Healthcare (IYH): #9 (+0.5 pct); PFE and JNJ were losers this week
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #5 (+1.6); Bonds rallied, but yield curve sagged
45: Tech (SMH chips): #4 (+1.7 pct); MSFT -4.9 pct in 2 weeks w/Vista
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #3 (+1.9 pct); VZ up +2.1 pct & T up +1.6 pct
55: Utilities (XLU): #8 (+0.5 pct); 4th straight week of rising Bonds

Bonds: U.S. Bonds had a huge week as the yields on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year Treasuries dropped -8, -9, -10 and -8 basis points (bp) respectively. The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield upped 2 bp to 5.01 pct, however. Although Bonds have rallied 4 straight weeks, yields are still +5 bp higher than the final week of 2006. Next week might tell us if Bond prices soften.

Commodities: $CRB lifted +0.5 pct W/W, but the whole gain and more came Friday (+1.0 pct) as Crude futures jumped +2.3 pct on the day.

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were flat (down just 3 cents or -0.05 pct W/W) to 59.86. We are still freezing in the North East.

Gold: $GOLD, $SILVER, $PLAT and $PALL all had modest gains on the week, up +0.1 pct, +0.5 pct, +0.8 pct and +0.2 pct. The metals story this week was in Copper, where the futures jumped +5.6 pct W/W (although Friday they dipped -0.8 pct).

Goldminers: $XAU, GDX and XGD (TSX) were up +1.0 pct, +2.1 pct, and +0.4 pct respectively W/W (better than the metal). There were losses again this Friday (-1.1 pct, -0.6 pct and -0.7 pct respectively) as the $USD gained a bit of ground on the day.

Forex: This week, the $USD dropped a large -1.0 pct W/W (including a gain Fri. of +0.1 pct) and the Euro gained +0.9 pct W/W. The Yen was this week’s big currency story as it gained +2.0 pct as money flowed back from the US, probably in fear of being caught in a reversing carry trade fiasco.

Economic calendar for next week.

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Cara Stock Watch

The Cara 100 RSI-7 Highs and Lows, sorted Monthly

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This next summary might help those traders who are watching for a possible breakdown of the market’s highest flyers. These are the only Cara 100 stocks that have an RSI-7 above 70 for the Monthly, Weekly and Daily price series. I believe that the key is when the 70 level is broken on the downside by the Daily AND the Weekly. And if that happens, I look more closely at MACD and STO on the Daily and Hourly for evidence of a possible trend reversal.

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Interactive link to Friday Daily RSI-7 >70 in Cara 100 (no smoothing) (12 of 20, which is up sharply from 8 a week ago and almost back to the 23 we had two weeks ago.)

Interactive link to Friday Daily RSI-7 <30 in Cara 100 (no smoothing) (1 only, which is down from 9 a week ago, but back to the 1 we had two weeks ago.)

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The upward momentum returned to this market on Tuesday at the open, with the futures up very sharply well ahead of the Bernanke testimony. Traders probably got drift of the media spin that had gotten underway ahead of the President’s big speech day and Bernanke’s day in Congress. How much the Treasury and/or the Fed intervenes on such days is pure conjecture on my part, but would make for an interesting academic (ie, unbiased) research investigation. Clearly, I’d rather we be told flatly what the Treasury/Fed is doing and why, so that we can plan our affairs accordingly. But, for some reason, the Administration (and this one more than most in the past) seems to have their own agenda, which makes it tough for us.

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Here are the Cara Watch List gainers on Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

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Here are the top Cara Watch List losers for Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

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Here are the five Cara 100 companies whose stocks hit 52-week highs during the day Friday.

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Here are the Cara 100 companies whose volume on Friday exceeded the average daily volumes. This is important data for the Money Flow indicator, which combines the uptick and downtick volume with the price move. Traders who follow this data believe that volume changes precede price changes. I agree with that notion, particularly in the micro-cap market where you need to watch the promoters like a hawk.

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Sector ETF Review

The tables I show are for ten Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only. For the Tech sector, there are many sub-sector ETF’s I could have selected, but I feel the chip industry is a leading group, and a very important one. In the near future, I intend to devote more time and space to ETF’s.

Of the ten I have been following here, 9 of the 10 were up this week, with only Energy (XLE) being a loser. This is the opposite picture of a week ago.

Clearly the stock market is on a Bull run, but look at this week's Hourly data charts to see that the big moves were almost entirely wrapped up on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, linked to the Bernanke and Bush speeches.

I don’t see a linkage of the present market euphoria to notable instances of corporate or industry earnings momentum. In the big picture, I see the continuation of immense mega-billion dollar share buy-backs and dividend increases, which, please understand, is a RETURN OF CAPITAL, not a Return On Capital Invested in these companies.

Traders who misunderstand this situation are ignorant of the same situation that was happening in Canada with the business trusts. In (often quite emotional) testimony before government last week, the outspoken (and brutally honest) forensic accountant Al Rosen (whom, as a former student, I revere and write up here a lot) flatly told anybody who wasn’t sticking their head in the sand (to avoid hearing the truth) that these trusts (despite good intentions by government) had been turned by the majority of the promoters into “Ponzi Schemes”.

I cannot over-stress that any scheme put forth by lawyers, accountants and Wall Street corporate finance people seeking humungous fees is a financial accident just waiting to happen. The intention is usually a good one, but then sleazy promoters get involved. Usually there is a tax angle (often for the wealthy, like Flow-Through (mining and oil) Shares in Canada and before that the Scientific Tax Credits) and often a covert offshore angle (like Enron and even Refco). Sometimes it’s a phony re-organization (Stelco comes to mind).

Whenever I see government, SEC, courts, accountants and lawyers, or so-called “private equity” taking a higher than usual profile in the share trading of a company, I’m out. I’m history.

Yes, I’ve been there and done that. The back-room nonsense that goes on is too often flat-out criminal. The expression “Out of the room, out of the deal” should be understood by every trader.

If you do, and you are the average Mom & Pop, you’ll want to stick to trading in shares of quality companies like those in the Cara 100 and others like them. You ought to see the benefit of only buying these shares when they are out of favor and lightening up when they become hot “news”.

As an example, I love the quality of a Toyota/Lexus, but the stock (TM) is being hyped along with a Yen that has nose-dived and a NASCAR car racing marketing phenomenon that is getting underway this month.

But the stock has rallied from a low of $41.17 in April-03 to Friday’s $137.15. The last two hours of trading on Friday was incredible as traders were just hitting the “Easy” button. But, according to Value Line, the 5-year appreciation potential is only about $155. The market cap is now $224 billion, which is far greater than all the rest of the automobile manufacturers in the world. The PE is about 38. The mean average rating of Wall Street analysts (according to Yahoo Finance) is a “1”, which is a “Strong Buy”. What are people possibly thinking?

Now, I don’t want to go knocking a Cara 100 company, but there is a lot of debt here, and there is a negative free cash flow, and the Return on Equity is in the 14 pct range (and over the past 5 years is in the 12 pct range), which is not even close to Wal-Mart’s 20-21 pct range.

Bottom line is that I think traders are playing musical chairs here, and when the Japanese carry trade is stopped in its tracks, the Cara Crystal Ball is showing me a $110 handle (possibly $100) for TM (and today is a sunny day).

Toyota Motor (TM) chart:

I’m only saying this about TM because stock markets are in a melt-up and some foolish traders will get trapped into buying at the top. This is not the time to buy any stock that doesn’t have a low RSI and a high quality and financial strength rating.

Unfortunately, we are in that phase of the market where Wall Street sell-side analysts fear taking down opinion ratings because they’ll lose corporate finance business. Yes, despite the groundwork laid by Eliot Spitzer, the problem still exists. There is still too little independent thinking.

The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLB	37.71	-0.18	-0.48%	3.03%	2.95%	5.42%	8.96%	10.85%	18.29%	19.03%
XLI	36.64	-0.17	-0.46%	2.20%	1.24%	2.86%	4.00%	3.56%	12.50%	13.09%
IYZ	31.01	0.04	0.13%	1.87%	0.55%	4.83%	4.55%	9.73%	18.18%	23.15%
SMH	34.47	-0.03	-0.09%	1.68%	0.44%	3.20%	2.68%	-2.76%	4.74%	-10.93%
XLF	37.76	-0.01	-0.03%	1.61%	0.99%	2.16%	2.28%	4.37%	13.12%	15.97%
XLP	26.91	0.04	0.15%	1.47%	0.41%	1.13%	2.40%	4.10%	7.30%	13.40%
XLY	39.90	-0.05	-0.13%	1.12%	0.48%	0.73%	3.58%	4.50%	21.28%	17.94%
XLU	38.24	0.06	0.16%	0.53%	3.07%	6.07%	3.86%	6.22%	12.47%	19.46%
IYH	68.88	-0.31	-0.45%	0.51%	-0.01%	0.06%	3.64%	4.78%	8.13%	6.10%
XLE	58.00	0.01	0.02%	-0.67%	-1.07%	2.47%	2.51%	2.42%	1.75%	10.18%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

I have warned in the past that ETF’s can be used to pump up markets. All it takes is for hedge funds to take on more debt/margin. The flip side of that coin is when the debt/margin is called – maybe because of bad trading, or maybe just because other traders are selling and the collateral value starts falling, which then requires more margin by everybody.

So, if you are close to the line with margin, it’s time to raise your stops and consider lightening up some long positions.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE lost -0.67 pct to 58.00, while $WTIC (Crude futures) lost 0.05 pct (3 cents) to $59.86.

The oil share prices are weaker than the Crude Oil price for the past two weeks because traders are figuring that exogenous factors (like random political events) are involved in keeping oil prices high.

XLE really hasn’t moved up or down much since last April.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SU	75.01	0.70	0.94%	3.53%	1.39%	1.65%	1.49%	-0.69%	-7.33%	1.83%
TOT	70.19	0.04	0.06%	2.71%	1.95%	3.77%	-1.10%	0.33%	2.66%	10.00%
IMO	36.86	0.36	0.99%	2.67%	4.48%	8.38%	3.37%	1.57%	-5.32%	-61.97%
CEO	84.27	0.69	0.83%	1.58%	-0.79%	-3.47%	-10.61%	-1.37%	-8.18%	1.90%
ECA	48.94	-0.28	-0.57%	0.55%	1.56%	4.93%	7.94%	-0.59%	-8.56%	14.24%
XOM	75.29	-0.05	-0.07%	0.09%	-0.33%	2.39%	1.59%	3.61%	11.43%	24.96%
STO	25.97	-0.32	-1.22%	-0.31%	-3.39%	3.88%	1.09%	-2.70%	-6.18%	2.89%
PBR	94.05	0.50	0.53%	-1.36%	-5.44%	-0.57%	-5.63%	5.39%	0.70%	4.52%
CVX	70.81	-0.55	-0.77%	-3.42%	-4.36%	-2.09%	-0.23%	3.30%	8.26%	25.77%

The oils dipped again for a second week. The international oils, TOT (+2.7 pct) and CEO (+1.6 pct) did well, but XOM was flat (+0.09 pct) and CVX (-3.4 pct) got taken down.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

A couple of the Canadian energy majors did well (SU was up +3.5 pct and IMO was up +2.7 pct) because when energy prices trade back to the 60 level, there is less concern about increasing operating costs in the Western Canadian oil sands. The profits and cash flow are strong.

The IMO 12 month data in the table is bad. I will correct this data soon I hope.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) excelled this week, going up +3.03 pct to be the #1 performer of my 10 ETF’s. XLB closed at 37.71, despite being down -0.48 pct again this Friday (all near the close).

I don’t know why Friday’s are bad ones for the metals, and good ones for the $USD, but I have noted the pattern recently. Maybe traders who have seen a +30 pct gain in XLB since last June are lightening up? Short-term, though, XLB really hit a high water mark on Thursday.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MT	50.95	0.85	1.70%	9.19%	7.13%	21.98%	24.88%	24.66%	55.81%	53.60%
GGB	18.72	0.03	0.16%	7.96%	9.67%	21.95%	14.01%	24.63%	20.62%	-15.83%
RIO	35.90	-0.22	-0.61%	7.91%	5.53%	19.19%	24.57%	36.97%	60.70%	49.90%
TCK	75.64	0.44	0.59%	7.34%	5.98%	9.42%	9.23%	7.87%	3.08%	0.00%
AA	34.78	0.07	0.20%	6.95%	7.21%	10.76%	18.58%	22.85%	21.14%	14.52%
RTP	220.80	-0.86	-0.39%	5.74%	3.78%	7.57%	8.18%	7.23%	3.78%	13.07%
BHP	45.76	0.10	0.22%	5.41%	11.12%	14.37%	17.73%	14.14%	6.52%	26.51%
PKX	96.13	0.63	0.66%	5.22%	5.06%	17.48%	21.02%	32.06%	57.49%	71.35%
NUE	64.72	-0.58	-0.89%	4.98%	-0.17%	13.17%	18.75%	17.27%	23.79%	54.54%
TS	47.15	-0.23	-0.49%	0.47%	0.17%	-1.91%	-2.82%	8.27%	26.04%	56.64%

Look at the moves in the metals and steels this week. They are stunning.

What is happening is really too much money chasing quality asset plays. The corporate finance departments of Wall Street are working over-time trying to pull off as many take-overs and mergers as possible before the balloon pops. I think the cycle is not yet over, but getting very over-bought.

The other thing that is happening is that high metals prices, which are being driven by rapid expansion in the (2.8 billion population) emerging BRIC economies, are throwing off huge profits and cash flow. There are also huge share buy-backs and dividend increases in this sector.

But the sweet spot of the sector will likely come to a close this year or early next year, well ahead of the Summer Games in Beijing.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was up +2.20 pct W/W to close at 36.64. Many of the industrial conglomerates really lifted (although GE was up less at +0.96 pct), and Fedex (FDX) took the Transports to a new high, technically confirming the Bull market.

These stocks ought to be in rally mode when the economy is booming and the yield curve is steeply sloped. But the economy is rather dull and the yield curve this week inverted even more (the gap between 30-year and 3-month Treasuries increased from -12 bp to -22 bp and the gap between 2-year and 3-month Treasuries widened from -11 bp to -21 bp. Those are serious moves, not all indicative of economic expansion.

So this new capital seems to be chasing capex beneficiaries as well as Bonds. That to me is a sign that the credit balloon is growing ever so quickly, and it’s happening because of certain powerful interests reaching for even greater power through acquisitions. This is a typical late-cycle phenomenon. How long it continues will depend on when the central banks pull the plug, and I don’t think the time is yet ready.

In fact, I have opined that when the $CRB, $WTIC, and $GOLD prices rally above their 200-day Moving Averages, the central banks will pull in the horns of the Bull for fear that inflation would otherwise soon get out of control.

I think we’ll see $750+ gold, $70 oil, and a $325 CRB before this game comes to a screeching halt. As long as I see GE not making a Bull move (remember CEO Jeff Immelt sits on the NY Fed Board of Directors), I don’t think it’s wise to chase stocks this late in the cycle.

I also think these industrial conglomerates and transports are in rally mode because of lay-offs, restructurings, share buy-backs, excessive dividends, M&A, pressure from private equity (which is really your debt – or soon will be -- and their equity), etc. If the manufacturing sector in the US was the healthy component of the GDP, and not the services sector, I might agree that there is a trading rationale for the rally in this sector.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4 Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CAT	67.67	0.05	0.07%	4.43%	3.71%	13.98%	10.64%	10.27%	-2.08%	-5.96%
HON	47.83	0.26	0.55%	3.44%	3.62%	5.61%	6.05%	10.41%	23.37%	15.03%
FDX	117.05	-0.24	-0.20%	3.23%	1.80%	5.47%	6.63%	-0.92%	12.39%	11.87%
ERJ	45.98	0.60	1.32%	3.16%	11.82%	11.79%	12.75%	7.66%	28.15%	19.77%
MMM	76.84	-0.07	-0.09%	3.09%	4.02%	-3.04%	-1.81%	-4.30%	8.55%	5.19%
UTX	68.68	-0.25	-0.36%	1.63%	1.00%	5.37%	9.35%	2.88%	10.47%	18.01%
BA	90.94	-0.77	-0.84%	1.04%	0.99%	2.61%	1.98%	2.51%	15.36%	25.35%
GE	35.87	-0.27	-0.75%	0.96%	-1.10%	-2.92%	-5.53%	-0.25%	6.41%	7.56%
ABB	18.11	-0.37	-2.00%	-2.32%	-0.55%	3.66%	1.63%	13.83%	33.85%	61.41%

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FDX, by the way, enjoyed a strong week (actually a strong Wednesday when the market was all a froth), closing Friday at $117.05.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +1.12 pct W/W to close at 39.90.

You know, for a nation of families deep in debt and into negative saving at a rate that is the worst since the Great Depression, Americans are spending like drunken sailors if you can believe the moon-shot trajectory of XLY since July. From 31 to 40 is mighty impressive. But how long can this sector continue to rally?

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WHR	96.20	3.60	3.89%	6.90%	4.17%	10.46%	13.63%	8.91%	22.39%	7.73%
TM	137.15	0.38	0.28%	3.85%	4.48%	3.64%	1.37%	11.89%	22.94%	27.46%
JCP	85.25	-0.61	-0.71%	2.90%	1.85%	3.10%	9.21%	4.43%	25.28%	47.36%
NKE	106.30	0.79	0.75%	2.61%	6.09%	6.36%	8.84%	11.62%	36.72%	25.41%
DIS	34.89	0.22	0.63%	1.54%	-0.82%	-1.72%	2.02%	5.54%	17.44%	28.98%
BC	33.44	0.14	0.42%	0.63%	-3.35%	6.33%	4.76%	3.02%	11.32%	-16.59%
EBAY	33.62	-0.05	-0.15%	0.30%	3.61%	13.43%	11.44%	0.93%	29.71%	-19.51%
SBUX	33.01	-0.23	-0.69%	0.12%	-3.68%	-7.12%	-6.35%	-16.41%	7.73%	-7.92%
CCL	48.36	-0.30	-0.62%	-0.19%	-6.59%	-7.69%	-5.08%	-3.09%	26.40%	-10.36%

Nike (NKE) was up again! Whirlpool (WHR +6.9 pct) and Toyota Motor (TM +3.9 pct) were the big winners on the week. That puts WHR up +13.6 pct YTD for Best In Class.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) gained +1.47 pct W/W to close at $26.91. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning were explosive for the alcohol crowd.

The beer companies, BUD +2.2 pct and (Cara 100 InBev) ABV +3.4 pct), and the booze maker Diageo (DEO +2.8 pct) were the big winners here this week.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	52.96	-1.17	-2.16%	3.38%	1.38%	5.75%	7.86%	11.80%	23.74%	22.88%
DEO	81.38	-0.85	-1.03%	2.82%	2.80%	3.91%	2.33%	7.55%	12.19%	33.59%
BUD	51.16	-0.59	-1.14%	2.22%	-0.41%	0.67%	3.94%	8.69%	4.62%	22.39%
WFMI	46.43	0.37	0.80%	1.80%	3.94%	5.62%	2.09%	-6.13%	-12.97%	-28.70%
WAG	46.01	-0.09	-0.20%	1.28%	1.52%	0.00%	-0.13%	7.70%	-6.81%	0.24%
PEP	64.62	0.54	0.84%	1.11%	-0.65%	-0.31%	3.03%	4.56%	2.10%	10.09%
WMT	48.48	0.12	0.25%	1.06%	0.83%	0.35%	1.96%	1.19%	9.12%	3.97%
PG	65.07	0.08	0.12%	0.99%	-0.41%	-1.54%	0.82%	2.44%	7.70%	7.15%
MO	86.20	0.12	0.14%	0.95%	-0.42%	-1.21%	-0.36%	3.15%	6.76%	17.76%
KO	47.87	0.02	0.04%	0.23%	-0.77%	-0.81%	-1.46%	1.55%	7.99%	15.10%

Whole Foods Markets Inc (WFMI) lifted by +1.0 pct this week to close at $46.43, which makes it, along with InBev (ABV), the top performer of this group in the past 4 weeks.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF gained +0.51 pct W/W to close at 68.88, despite losing -0.45 pct on Friday.

Pfizer (PFE -0.3 pct) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ –0.14 pct) were two Dow 30 healthcare losers on the week.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AET	45.61	0.57	1.27%	7.14%	7.27%	8.88%	6.37%	10.12%	28.01%	-10.13%
UNH	53.95	0.34	0.63%	6.03%	1.97%	1.41%	2.63%	13.29%	12.07%	-7.78%
GSK	57.78	0.13	0.23%	2.48%	3.53%	3.27%	7.38%	11.18%	3.86%	12.59%
NVS	59.24	-0.46	-0.77%	1.46%	1.16%	1.18%	1.89%	1.75%	3.73%	8.68%
BMET	42.36	0.01	0.02%	0.26%	0.28%	1.66%	2.15%	9.77%	30.10%	13.47%
JNJ	65.51	-0.28	-0.43%	-0.14%	-1.61%	-3.32%	-1.34%	-1.53%	1.39%	11.07%
PFE	26.30	-0.23	-0.87%	-0.30%	-1.87%	-3.38%	0.04%	-1.72%	-1.68%	1.90%
DNA	86.47	-0.39	-0.45%	-0.37%	-1.06%	-2.90%	5.71%	7.12%	5.57%	2.21%
BMY	27.64	-0.13	-0.47%	-3.09%	-3.49%	3.79%	4.78%	12.08%	31.12%	20.23%
AMGN	66.73	-1.55	-2.27%	-3.32%	-3.92%	-10.13%	-2.44%	-7.88%	0.04%	-9.79%

Right after managed care provider United Health (UNH) stumbled (-3.8 pct) a week ago after Lehman Bros had reduced the group rating, this week UNH jumped +6.03 pct. And (Cara 100) Aetna (AET) was up a whopping +7.14 pct this week.

I cut Biomet (BMET) from the Cara 100 this week as private equity is in the process of acquiring it at about the present price level. I chose not to replace it with another healthcare company although biogenerics leader Barr Pharma (BRL) was a candidate.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) gained +1.61 pct W/W, closing at 37.76. Well, Bonds were way up. That helps. That probably means the credit balloon is building, which helps companies in the investment banking business. But the yield curve weakened a lot, which hurts the lending banks.

The Daily price data chart for XLF has been zooming since July as the Fed has tried printing its way out of problems in US housing and manufacturing. The "Goldilocks" spin hasn't hurt either.

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSR	59.15	-0.11	-0.19%	2.76%	6.25%	7.66%	10.87%	15.73%	-1.00%	40.13%
DB	141.20	0.48	0.34%	2.01%	0.95%	3.51%	4.33%	11.08%	23.85%	30.38%
GS	216.92	0.10	0.05%	1.71%	1.64%	3.15%	8.07%	10.27%	39.96%	48.68%
JPM	51.25	0.04	0.08%	1.65%	0.63%	5.11%	6.62%	7.11%	12.71%	25.55%
C	54.10	-0.11	-0.20%	1.31%	-1.02%	-0.73%	-2.08%	6.79%	11.48%	16.49%
MS	82.36	-0.46	-0.56%	0.71%	-2.00%	1.06%	0.91%	4.68%	23.02%	34.36%
MER	92.79	-0.81	-0.87%	0.18%	-2.34%	-3.21%	-0.88%	1.88%	23.10%	20.93%
HBC	89.54	-0.13	-0.14%	0.13%	-3.21%	-2.98%	-3.69%	-5.14%	-1.86%	6.81%
UBS	63.03	0.64	1.03%	-0.76%	-0.85%	3.34%	2.67%	3.11%	9.20%	17.59%
LEH	82.61	-0.68	-0.82%	-0.83%	-3.72%	-0.65%	5.06%	8.80%	22.75%	12.14%

Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank were the leaders and Lehman and UBS the laggards.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) bounced back from a rough week, up +1.68 pct to close at 34.47.

The Monthly data chart is forming a very bullish long base pattern. After the next Bull market starts, I expect the Semi-conductor group to be among the leaders.

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Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QCOM	42.46	1.15	2.78%	10.83%	14.17%	9.24%	13.35%	12.33%	12.24%	-11.73%
ADBE	40.27	1.04	2.65%	7.02%	3.34%	4.84%	0.88%	-3.78%	18.48%	4.38%
SAP	47.11	-0.21	-0.44%	1.75%	2.12%	-3.94%	-11.45%	-9.00%	-1.65%	-7.17%
CTSH	93.68	-0.79	-0.84%	1.69%	9.15%	14.72%	20.47%	16.75%	32.90%	69.65%
INTC	21.23	-0.08	-0.38%	1.00%	0.00%	1.97%	4.32%	-4.93%	13.83%	-0.56%
INFY	59.84	0.23	0.39%	0.72%	1.53%	6.61%	7.20%	6.31%	35.54%	69.09%
ADSK	42.16	-0.45	-1.06%	0.52%	-4.81%	-0.17%	3.94%	13.95%	22.49%	11.56%
ORCL	16.70	-0.18	-1.07%	0.30%	-4.13%	-3.30%	-4.63%	-12.57%	7.46%	34.24%
SNDK	40.12	-1.03	-2.50%	-0.32%	-1.67%	-5.27%	-3.84%	-14.07%	-21.55%	-32.05%
CSCO	27.52	-0.05	-0.18%	-0.54%	1.44%	3.07%	-0.79%	1.36%	30.24%	37.74%

Adobe (ADBE), which a week earlier dumped -3.4 pct, was up this week +7.0 pct. And the big winner was Qualcomm (QCOM), which zoomed +10.83. That makes a 2-week gain of +14.2 pct for QCOM.

Short-term, I still feel “the air is coming out of the Tech balloon. Look down the 4-week changes if you have any doubt”, which is what I stated a week ago. This week Microsoft (MSFT) was the Dow 30’s worst performer (-0.8 pct), after Steve Ballmer warned that sales of Vista might not be as super as earlier figured.

If Vista sells big, this sector will lift. If it fizzles, this sector will likely pull back.

Keep your eye on DELL as the bell cow:

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) went from the week’s biggest loser (-1.30 pct) to a solid +1.87 pct gain this week, closing at 31.01.

AT&T (T) enjoyed a gain of +1.6 pct, but Verizon (VZ) was up +2.1 pct this week. But YTD, VZ is up only +1.8 pct whereas T is up +7.2 pct.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) were up +0.53 pct W/W to close at 38.24. I recall my opinion quite a long time ago that XLU would not see the north side of 33-34. WRONG.

A week ago I reported: “Public Service Enterprise (PEG) has jumped +4.34 pct this week and almost +20 pct in the past 100 days or so. Is that a sustainable move?”

Hmmm, PEG jumped a further +3.66 pct this week, and is now up +10 pct in the past month.

So, what’s really going on here? Is Public Service Enterprise really part of the new Nifty Fifty?

I think I’ll put in a call to Erin Brockovich. Maybe she’ll dig up some poop?

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Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bond & Interest Rate Review

It is becoming monotonous writing: “This was another good week for U.S. Treasury bonds as the yields dropped…”

This week the yields dropped between -8 basis points (bp) and -10 bp to 4.79 pct, 4.67 pct, -4.65 pct and -4.80 pct respectively on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper.

But, the T-Bill yield moved up +2 bp at 5.01 pct, so the yield curve dipped again.

As long as yields continue to fall (or even stay flat), stocks and bonds will remain strong with the occasional rally. But, if the economy doesn’t pick up, the inverted yield curve and the high price of commodities (oil, metals, etc) will begin to hurt those lofty stock and bond prices, which after all cannot rise on hot air without being called balloons.

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Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Interactive Daily data charts:

Interactive Hourly data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	5.01	5.00	4.99	4.95
6 Month	4.92	4.92	4.94	4.93
2 Year	4.80	4.81	4.88	4.88
3 Year	4.68	4.71	4.79	4.80
5 Year	4.65	4.67	4.75	4.75
10 Year	4.67	4.69	4.76	4.76
30 Year	4.79	4.81	4.87	4.85

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.71	3.62	3.61	3.56
2yr AAA	3.57	3.62	3.60	3.62
2yr A	3.55	3.60	3.61	3.61
5yr AAA	3.60	3.62	3.65	3.63
5yr AA	3.57	3.53	3.54	3.64
5yr A	3.64	3.66	3.69	3.72
10yr AAA	3.71	3.75	3.73	3.73
10yr AA	3.71	3.74	3.72	3.74
10yr A	4.01	4.05	4.03	4.03
20yr AAA	4.09	4.14	4.10	4.13
20yr AA	4.04	4.01	4.05	3.89
20yr A	4.06	4.10	4.13	4.18

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.06	5.07	5.15	5.17
2yr A	5.13	5.14	5.22	5.25
5yr AAA	5.08	5.09	5.17	5.19
5yr AA	5.16	5.17	5.24	5.26
5yr A	5.20	5.21	5.30	5.32
10yr AAA	5.38	5.41	5.50	5.50
10yr AA	5.43	5.45	5.54	5.52
10yr A	5.49	5.50	5.57	5.57
20yr AAA	5.87	5.73	5.80	5.87
20yr AA	5.95	5.81	5.88	5.95
20yr A	6.00	5.87	5.93	6.01

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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TLT had a great week, up +1.15 pct W/W to 88.64.

A week ago I wrote: “The inflation-sensitive TIP had a good bounce on Friday afternoon. Let’s see what Monday brings.” Well, the TIP dipped on Monday, stayed flat on Tuesday and then went up on moon shots on Wednesday and Friday, as metals prices (including copper) started screaming hot.

Fannie and Freddie reverted from being losers, after going down the prior week -1.4 pct and -2.2 pct respectively, with gains this week of +6.04 pct and +2.43 pct.

Now tell me, how is that possible when Fed Head Bernanke flat out told Congress his biggest fears to the entire financial system of the US were Fannie and Freddie? I mean, does Helicopter Ben have zero credibility. He says something like that and base metal prices and the TIP and FNM and FRE all rocket north.

Maybe there is some covert operation by the North Koreans or Iranians or Venezuelans going on here? You know, those members of the Axis of Evil that the President likes to speak about.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

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SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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It was in this space a week ago where I said about Bonds: “The TLT monthly RSI-7 is 45.4. In the 2Q06, it hit 30, and so did the Weekly and Daily RSI. That was the time to be a buyer of Bonds, and the time to lighten up (per RSI/STO) was November-December. So, at this point, I’m biding my time even though I see a picture that is clearly not technically bearish.”

In other words, it was technically bullish, but not so much I want to be a buyer of interest-sensitives.

The problem here is that there are short-term oriented readers and long-term oriented readers. Then are the intermediate-term readers. I’m going to have to try being more explicit.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	59.68	0.68	1.15%	6.04%	4.59%	4.70%	-0.30%	1.05%	21.72%	8.35%
FRE	66.07	-0.12	-0.18%	2.43%	0.18%	1.65%	-2.68%	-3.67%	9.37%	-0.32%
TLT	88.64	0.31	0.35%	1.15%	1.65%	0.74%	-0.48%	-0.89%	2.41%	-1.76%
TIP	99.46	0.33	0.33%	0.72%	0.59%	1.07%	0.23%	-0.13%	-1.56%	-2.64%
IEF	82.61	0.05	0.06%	0.65%	0.98%	0.50%	-0.08%	-0.22%	1.05%	0.00%
AGG	100.21	0.07	0.07%	0.48%	0.78%	0.37%	0.30%	0.15%	1.29%	0.35%
SHY	80.10	0.02	0.02%	0.29%	0.36%	0.14%	0.07%	0.06%	0.16%	0.07%
CFC	41.70	-0.12	-0.29%	-1.21%	-7.40%	0.92%	-0.97%	2.38%	20.45%	23.37%

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The Commodities Index ($CRB) lifted again +0.50 pct W/W to close at 306.71. The reason the price lifted was on account of Friday’s gain of +0.96 pct, which in turn was caused by Crude Light ($WTIC) going up +2.3 pct on the day.

I have written here in the past: “When that 200 day MA line is intersected by a rising $CRB, then I’ll start paying attention to Ben Bernanke. Until then, I am just going to assume that the Fed talks tough and then accommodates all their friends, which puts sufficient money into the system to push stock and bond prices and precious metals higher. And as long as Crude Oil and Food prices don’t go through the roof, I think precious metals will be allowed (to an extent) to rally.”

The 50-Day Moving Average is now 301.13, while the 200-Day MA is 321.62, so 306.71 is really not worrying the Fed. I don’t see a problem here yet. Maybe when Crude hits $70 and Gold goes to $750.

By then $CRB would be up to 325, and the Fed would have to address it.

There was cycle bottom in mid-Jan. at 301.13 and a previous high of 322.56 at the end of November.

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil:

$WTIC stayed flat this week, losing 3 cents to 59.86.

The 50-Day Moving Average is now 58.40, while the 200-Day MA is 65.36. We may see Oil into the 60’s, but there doesn’t seem to be either enough speculative enthusiasm or old weather or supply shut-downs or $USD weakness or economic strength in the US to drive prices back to $70.

The short-term cycle low was 51.03 in mid-January and the cycle high was 60.80 a week ago, so we’re in the upper trading range, but so far no break-out attempts have been successful.

The big picture is interesting. If it’s true 20 years from now that our vehicles are hydrogen powered and our electric power utilities are nuclear, then there has to be long-term pricing pressures for Crude Oil.

This may not seem relevant for many years, but you have to think that it is a story that will be frequently spun in the interim, thereby causing prices to fluctuate.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

This week, $GOLD gained 50 cents (+0.07 pct) to 672.80. The 50d MA is at 639.45 and the more important 200d MA is at 625.94. So technically $GOLD is bullish.

The cycle bottom was 603 (for the near futures) in early January and on Wednesday this week we hit a (possibly interim) short-term cycle high of 676.60.

It’s possible $GOLD may move back through that level to establish a higher cycle high. That depends on $USD strength in the following days.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER was up +0.54 pct W/W, closing at 13.99. The 50-day MA $SILVER is now 13.23 and the 200-day MA is 12.32.

There was a short-term cycle low of 12.10 in early January. On Wednesday this week there was a high of 14.13.

Yes, the “silver crazies” are pumping out spam email and faxes, talking about $20 silver. I think there will be a long-term cycle high at about 17. If there is a high level of speculative froth, I could foresee silver going to 18, but I don’t care for all the hype in the market today.

From where I sit, I think the Oct-Dec bull run in silver (10.65 to 14.37) with its continuous higher highs and higher lows was more impressive than the present situation.

Interactive 60-minute data

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT increased +0.80 pct to 1212.20. The 50-Day MA for $PLAT is now 1154.74 and the 200-Day MA is 1187.94.

The short-run cycle low was 1099.30 in mid-Dec and the subsequent cycle high was on Wednesday at 1225.60. On Friday, $PLAT dropped -0.50 pct.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL had yet another slow week, rising +0.17 pct W/W to close at 344.60.

The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for $PALL are 338.46 and 334.20 respectively, which is pretty flat, but below the current price, as is the case for the whole PM group.
That’s bullish.

There has actually been a bullish pattern here since early October (290.88), but the trading has been the least positive of the four major precious metals, probably because the other three are used extensively in jewellery.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER rallied big time this week. Some shorts must have been squeezed. $COPPER closed at 265.90, up +5.62 pct W/W. Friday, these 2,000 lb contracts settled back, falling -0.75 pct.

The 50-day MA is 272.37, and the 200-Day MA is 324.69. This is StockCharts.com data.

There was a February low of 238.50, and a high of 270.00.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MDG	30.86	-0.31	-0.99%	3.25%	6.71%	14.42%	17.38%	14.55%	9.32%	33.07%
BVN	29.76	-0.34	-1.13%	3.19%	1.40%	7.09%	7.79%	11.00%	5.53%	18.75%
AUY	14.17	0.05	0.35%	2.76%	6.30%	18.18%	14.92%	30.00%	41.28%	84.03%
ABX	31.29	-0.22	-0.70%	1.46%	4.37%	9.37%	4.89%	9.94%	-0.57%	9.67%
GFI	17.49	-0.30	-1.69%	1.39%	3.98%	3.43%	-4.58%	4.29%	-13.20%	-17.93%
NEM	46.26	-0.25	-0.54%	0.98%	3.05%	6.98%	4.66%	4.57%	-9.45%	-17.69%
KGC	13.26	-0.24	-1.78%	0.08%	1.77%	7.02%	16.11%	15.51%	4.33%	40.76%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	17.50%	0.59%	-13.85%	70.64%
AEM	39.95	-0.59	-1.46%	-0.87%	0.25%	8.97%	2.65%	7.22%	10.88%	56.67%
GG	28.21	-0.46	-1.60%	-1.02%	3.64%	10.32%	3.18%	7.26%	-3.72%	14.63%

Last week I opined about gold stocks: “I don’t see a reason to sell this rally. It’s early yet.”

This week, the precious metal miners were a little stronger.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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The goldminer indexes and ETF’s also lifted this week. Despite the Friday hit (-1.05 pct, -0.63 pct and -0.74 pct respectively), $XAU, GDX and (TSE’s) XGD were up on the week +1.02 pct, +2.07 pct, and +0.43 pct.

The $XAU index closed at 143.12. The 50d-MA (139.33) and 200d-MA (138.78) are both below the current price, which is bullish.

MDG was up +3.3 pct, BVN up +3.2 pct, AUY up +2.8 pct, ABX up +1.5 pct, GFI up +1.4 pct, and NEM up +1.0 pct W/W.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD closed at 84.07, a large loss of -0.95 pct W/W. The $USD 50-Day MA is 84.33, and the 200-Day MA is 85.14, so the current price (84.07) is technically bearish.

The following data requires your attention M3 update as of the past week. Lot’s of good stuff here.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) gained on the week +0.93 pct W/W, closing at 131.34. The $XEU 50-Day MA is 130.65, and the 200-Day MA is 128.27, so the current price (131.34) is technically bullish.

But, I’d like to see the Euro move up through the December high of 132.55.

The British Pound was flat, down -0.04 pct W/W to close at 195.07. The $XBP 50-Day MA is 195.90, and the 200-Day MA is 189.71, so the current price (195.07) is technically long-term bullish, but has dipped into short-term bearish levels.

The Japanese Yen had a very significant rally against the $USD this week, closing at 83.87, up +1.97 pct. The $XJY 50-Day MA is 83.70, and the 200-Day MA is 85.68, so the current price (83.87) is still technically bearish, but improving, as I indicated might be the case a week ago.

There was a double bottom to the Yen (81.91 and 81.98) on Jan 29 and Feb 12. In a rising phase, the target is 84.70, which was the January high.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar gained a lot the prior week, going up +1.08 pct W/W. This week it gained a further +0.72 pct to close at 85.92.

The $CDW 50-Day MA is 85.61, and the 200-Day MA is 88.26, so the current price (85.92) is still bearish, but only on the long-term chart.

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International Equities Review

Money Flow is reversing and is pouring into global equities. Technical and fundamental analysts alike are raising targets. The Melt-up I wrote about on February 1 is playing out just as I imagined.

The India market ETF (IFN) continues to struggle, as it has since mid-November. It was down -2.76 pct this week. Perhaps some experts can tell us what is going on in Mumbai!

Actually the Bombay Sensex 30 closed at 14,355.55, down on the week from 14,538.90.

The Templeton Russia Fund that I use to follow the Russian market has had a 12-month gain of just +8.6 pct, and has struggled badly since the start of 2007 (-14.9 pct, which perhaps includes a distribution), was down -1.41 pct this week as well.

The China FXI rallied every day this week as the Shanghai Composite moved up big time from 2730.39 to 2998.47.

The “Shanghai Fly” wrote the following note this weekend:

“Shanghai index break above 3000. Personally I feel (through trading) that the indices have entered a period where "anticipation" is hard, since the stocks here are grossly overvalued. Nasdaq has Microsoft and Intel and such, and sustains a P/E of over 30, while we lack such giants and our average P/E is over 40 now. Sentiment to buy stocks is at a high, however only 5 pct of the population has brokerage accounts. There are reports of new accounts growing at 50,000 daily, which may add more fuel to the fire as the mania has not spread to everyone in the nation... yet. And we might keep in mind that a bear market here would probably not be seen before the end of the Olympics. So a mixed up outlook really, though breaking above 3000 appears to be bullish.

Good luck to you in all your ventures (Bahamas, book) in the Year of the Pig!”

Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)

European indices (Interactive link)

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWJ	14.91	-0.01	-0.07%	4.48%	3.47%	5.07%	5.00%	10.20%	6.58%	9.71%
EWZ	49.01	0.08	0.16%	3.53%	2.02%	7.08%	4.95%	13.27%	19.89%	16.14%
EWC	26.17	0.02	0.08%	2.51%	3.32%	5.69%	5.95%	4.60%	7.03%	13.88%
QQQQ	44.77	-0.05	-0.11%	2.03%	1.38%	1.36%	3.54%	1.02%	16.01%	7.78%
IEV	108.58	-0.03	-0.03%	1.78%	1.57%	2.98%	2.82%	5.64%	13.65%	27.41%
FXI	106.90	0.70	0.66%	1.45%	2.84%	0.52%	-8.16%	15.07%	30.29%	49.01%
SPY	145.73	-0.07	-0.05%	1.24%	0.64%	2.04%	3.08%	3.81%	12.28%	12.83%
EWU	23.90	-0.05	-0.21%	1.19%	0.34%	0.93%	1.49%	2.88%	8.93%	22.19%
TRF	75.40	0.65	0.87%	-1.41%	-1.32%	-2.39%	-14.85%	0.53%	4.66%	8.61%
IFN	43.32	-0.27	-0.62%	-2.76%	-5.52%	-3.52%	-4.46%	-12.61%	6.10%	-9.52%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) gained +4.5 pct W/W to 14.91.

The EWJ 50-Day MA is 14.25 and the 200-Day MA is 13.74, so the current price (14.91) is technically very bullish, but possibly over-heated. Frankly, this move was timed to coincide with Tuesday and Wednesday’s market froth in the US.

But, other than watch it like a hawk, you have to accept that it is soaring.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) had a gain of +1.19 pct W/W to close Friday at 23.90. The EWU 50-Day MA is 23.56, and the 200-Day MA is 22.24, so the current price (23.90) is technically quite bullish. But, once again, the hike took place Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning as UK prices seemed to move in lock-step with US prices.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

EWC (priced in USD) had a very large gain of +2.51 pct W/W to close Friday at 26.17, with a large part of the gain coming on Tuesday.

The EWC 50-Day MA is 25.21 and the 200-Day MA is 24.42, so the current price (26.17) is technically very bullish.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities Review

The broad market indexes in the U.S. were up this week.

The Nasdaq Composite, S&P500, DJIA, and Russell 2000 small cap index were up +1.48 pct, +1.22 pct, +1.49 pct, and +1.37 pct respectively.

A very impressive Bernanke Bump on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. But, really, wasn’t this just a lot of hype from Wall Street that started early in the morning well before Bernanke started testimony before a congressional committee? And, wasn’t the hype a little far-fetched? I read the testimony and I have to think the Bulls were dreaming in Technicolor.

But it is what it is. We have to follow the tape. The market is melting up, which is what I alerted readers to on February 1.

Can the trend be sustained? When I look at the Dow 30 and S&P 500 Daily data charts, and wonder why bond yields are crashing, I have to ask why the leading two sectors this week were #1 Basic Materials and #2 Industrials. These are not the leaders of a new Bull cycle, and their rapid price increases do not foretell falling interest rates.

So how is it that interest rates are not falling, but bond yields are? Beats me.

What this situation looks like to me is little more than a Japanese-induced carry trade that is causing more pressure on the $USD. When that rocket is pointed in reverse, the hedgies had better look out.

Actually the clients of the hedgies had better look out. In the 2000-2002 market Bear, it was Mom & Pop that got killed because they were holding the unproven Internet bubble stocks. But this next Bear is going to take down a lot of “sophisticated” investors. The why is fairly simple to figure out.

It is much harder to withdraw your capital from a hedge fund than a mutual fund, and infinitely harder than selling an ETF. And many hedge funds are extremely leveraged with margin debt. Some are not truly hedged at all. When Japan raises interest rates, and also tightens quantitatively as well, many of these hedge funds will have to sell stocks and bonds. The unwinding process will happen quickly. I suspect many funds will fail, like Amaranth and many others.

Who gets hurt? The fund managers – take a look at the Amaranth managers – get paid 20 pct of the gains in the up years, and zero in the flat to losing years, or the years there is a crash. So let’s say a $10 billion hedge fund earns +40 pct in one year. The manager earns +20 pct of $4 billion, which is $800 million. It’s kinda hard not to buy the Ferrari and the $5 million house in the Caribbean, and taking one’s mind off business for a bit.

So, with a net capital position in the fund of $13.2 billion, let’s say what goes up comes down and the Fund loses -40 pct the following year. That’s a loss of $5.28 billion, leaving the “sophisticated” investors holding the remainder of just $7.92 billion.

In two years, these investors are down $2.08 billion plus 2 pct admin fees each of the two years. The managers may get fired, but they are enjoying the $800 million, or what’s left after the Ferrari, the $5 million beach house and the like. They might even say they want to “retire” to the Caribbean and write a blog or a book on trading.

(smiley goes here)

I suspect that after the next Bear market we will have witnessed the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. If it goes on for two or three years, that capital flow just might tally up to the dollar aggregate of all the stock market losses in over 100 years.

Think about it.

I think these close-to-the-margin hedge funds are nervous. I think the prime broker Big Swinging Dicks of Wall Street who have extended credit are nervous. And I think those who are sitting in cash today are licking their chops, waiting for the pigs to be slaughtered and cooked up.

This is after all the Year of the Pig.

When that meal might be served is a call I made on February 1: “The truth is that the credit balloon can only be blown up so far before it pops. I expect that popping sound sometime in the next two to six months.”

Right about now, you can hear the sizzle.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AA	34.78	0.07	0.20%	6.95%	7.21%	10.76%	18.58%	22.85%	21.14%	14.52%
CAT	67.67	0.05	0.07%	4.43%	3.71%	13.98%	10.64%	10.27%	-2.08%	-5.96%
HON	47.83	0.26	0.55%	3.44%	3.62%	5.61%	6.05%	10.41%	23.37%	15.03%
MMM	76.84	-0.07	-0.09%	3.09%	4.02%	-3.04%	-1.81%	-4.30%	8.55%	5.19%
DD	52.47	0.70	1.35%	2.74%	4.42%	3.21%	6.99%	10.16%	29.88%	26.37%
AXP	59.02	0.17	0.29%	2.59%	1.48%	1.60%	-2.22%	-0.92%	11.30%	8.33%
VZ	38.50	0.10	0.26%	2.12%	0.86%	3.36%	1.80%	7.12%	12.47%	11.43%
MCD	45.32	0.34	0.76%	1.71%	1.75%	1.14%	3.31%	8.76%	25.99%	24.61%
JPM	51.25	0.04	0.08%	1.65%	0.63%	5.11%	6.62%	7.11%	12.71%	25.55%
UTX	68.68	-0.25	-0.36%	1.63%	1.00%	5.37%	9.35%	2.88%	10.47%	18.01%
T	37.48	0.25	0.67%	1.57%	-1.68%	6.87%	7.24%	15.68%	23.90%	31.74%
DIS	34.89	0.22	0.63%	1.54%	-0.82%	-1.72%	2.02%	5.54%	17.44%	28.98%
C	54.10	-0.11	-0.20%	1.31%	-1.02%	-0.73%	-2.08%	6.79%	11.48%	16.49%
HPQ	42.77	0.09	0.21%	1.28%	1.66%	1.83%	2.76%	6.50%	24.22%	25.72%
HD	41.44	-0.22	-0.53%	1.07%	1.49%	2.19%	0.90%	9.60%	20.12%	-1.00%
WMT	48.48	0.12	0.25%	1.06%	0.83%	0.35%	1.96%	1.19%	9.12%	3.97%
MRK	44.28	0.40	0.91%	1.05%	-1.01%	-2.89%	0.59%	-0.83%	7.53%	23.07%
BA	90.94	-0.77	-0.84%	1.04%	0.99%	2.61%	1.98%	2.51%	15.36%	25.35%
INTC	21.23	-0.08	-0.38%	1.00%	0.00%	1.97%	4.32%	-4.93%	13.83%	-0.56%
PG	65.07	0.08	0.12%	0.99%	-0.41%	-1.54%	0.82%	2.44%	7.70%	7.15%
GE	35.87	-0.27	-0.75%	0.96%	-1.10%	-2.92%	-5.53%	-0.25%	6.41%	7.56%
MO	86.20	0.12	0.14%	0.95%	-0.42%	-1.21%	-0.36%	3.15%	6.76%	17.76%
GM	36.34	-0.10	-0.27%	0.92%	10.15%	15.18%	23.40%	2.28%	17.26%	63.11%
AIG	69.56	0.44	0.64%	0.90%	0.71%	-2.54%	-3.59%	-3.87%	10.40%	2.02%
IBM	98.99	0.07	0.07%	0.45%	-0.18%	2.93%	1.77%	5.91%	25.16%	22.35%
KO	47.87	0.02	0.04%	0.23%	-0.77%	-0.81%	-1.46%	1.55%	7.99%	15.10%
XOM	75.29	-0.05	-0.07%	0.09%	-0.33%	2.39%	1.59%	3.61%	11.43%	24.96%
JNJ	65.51	-0.28	-0.43%	-0.14%	-1.61%	-3.32%	-1.34%	-1.53%	1.39%	11.07%
PFE	26.30	-0.23	-0.87%	-0.30%	-1.87%	-3.38%	0.04%	-1.72%	-1.68%	1.90%
MSFT	28.71	-0.82	-2.78%	-0.79%	-4.90%	-7.71%	-3.85%	-2.58%	16.09%	7.09%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Dow 30 comments:

This week, Value Line has given us their quarterly update reports on (Cara 100) Disney (DIS) and (former Cara 100) 3M (MMM).

As for DIS, the stock is extended on the upside due to the terrific performance of the recent movie hits, and some improvement in the ABC TV network.

At $34.89, down from a high in January of $36.09, I think the stock has some room on the upside in the near-term. But, I would be waiting until the Weekly RSI-7 (61.0) and Daily RSI-7 (52.0) are down below 30 before stepping back in. It’s likely that, as much as I like this Cara 100 company, I would probably wait until the Monthly RSI-7 is also down to 30 (or perhaps 40) before buying more.

The current PE is acceptable, and the profit margins and returns on equity and on total capital invested are as good as they have been for many years. Financial strength is not the company’s strong suit, however, as there is a negative working capital position. That’s probably ok as long as interest rates and bond yields stay down.

I must admit that it is the broad market that scares me away more than anything at this point. In a full-out Bear, I believe the DIS could be purchased at 28-29. Then in a subsequent full-out Bull, I think the 12-24 month Price Target (PT) would be a conservative 42 (22 times say $1.90 in earnings). The dividend isn’t much, but if I could somehow buy the stock at 28 and sell it a couple years later at 42 plus dividends, my gain would be +50 pct (say +25 pct a year), which is ok. But, I certainly would not buy the stock over 31.

3M (MMM) is a much stronger company financially than Disney. I used to have it in the Cara 100 until James McNerney departed for greener pastures at Boeing (BA), at which point I switched the Cara 100 pick to BA. Yes, I believe McNerney’s that good and his predecessor at Boeing (Mr. Stonecipher) not so good.

MMM just hit a speed bump in late January, which made the stock (in the 73’s) attractive to short-term traders (Daily and Weekly RSI-7 basis). But the price is back to $76.84. There may be room to run on the upside here because the Monthly and Weekly RSI-7 are at 49.7 and 47.8, but I’m not interested.

Earnings for 2007 are expected to be fairly mute. In fact, Value Line recently dropped their estimate of 2007 earnings from $4.85 to $4.65. I don’t like the direction that’s taking. And I don’t think the US economy is nearly as strong as the Treasury and Commerce Secretaries would have us believe. So I pass.

If in 2008, the company could possibly earn $5.25 and put that with a PE multiple of 22, that would give me a Price Target of $115.50. If I could buy the stock down at 73 or lower (after seeing the quarter’s results coming up), or if I could write 70 puts on heavy down days, I might be interested. But, there are too many ifs here.

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 22: next one is due Mar. 23)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 15: next one is due Mar. 16)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Dec. 1: next one is due Mar. 2)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Dec. 1: next one is due Mar. 2)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 8: next one is due Mar. 9)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Feb. 16: next one is due May 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb. 9: next one is due May 11)

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Wrap up:

Changing to a new server, in a new time zone, with a new webmaster is certain to prove the Rule of Five with respect to computers, which is that any change will be five times more costly, take five times longer than planned, and cause you to lose five times more hair than you thought possible.

I need a break… and I’m going to take it on Tuesday. Being Reading Week, the college snowbirds managed to grab all the available flights. I wanted to go for four days, but could only manage two. I suppose the noise will be sufficient to keep me awake too.

Btw, we had quite a week here for weather. First the temperature dropped to a wind chilled -27 with the Lake Ontario shoreline freezing over. Then the sun started melting things, but the snow flurries started, and the waves picked up. Today it cleared a bit, and my feathered friends returned.

A few were hugging the water, but most were soaring much like the Dow. Or is that the Tao?

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Enjoy your day. Wherever you are in the world, whether it’s New York, New Toronto, New Delhi or Nassau, I have a feeling we are on the same page.

I just hope you are not so focused as me – trying to change TV channels with my computer mouse and not understanding why the thing doesn’t work. Beam me up, Scottie!

Ah, time to get away.

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