The stock debuted at $35 a share, which was +89 pct above the IPO price of $18.50 (for 34.29 million Class A shares) set by underwriters Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Banc of America Corp (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Deutsche Bank (DB).

FIG; what a strange ticker symbol. According to wiki, “the fig leaf is the covering up of an act or an object that is embarrassing or disagreeable. The term is a metaphorical reference to the Biblical Book of Genesis, in which Adam and Eve use fig leaves to cover themselves after they realize that they are naked.” Hmmm.

In any event, this US IPO shows how crazy the market is. A couple weeks ago, Fortress sold another 55 million class A shares to Nomura, a Japanese securities firm, for $888 million, at just over $16 a share. You might say that at FIG’s closing price on Friday, Nomura clients have cleaned up almost a $1 billion gain. Not a bad month’s work.

And the local bankers’ clients were up some $430 million in a few hours holding FIG on Friday.

You ask how long this silliness can go on. I say the end will come when that credit-stuffed obese woman can’t eat any more and starts singing. It won’t be a pretty sight.

For something more grounded in reality, let’s look at Wal-Mart. As a comparison to the $1.4 billion profits that traders made (on paper) in FIG this month, Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, with almost 2 million employees, earned (the hard way) just $1 billion.

This week’s Value Line report is on Wal-Mart (WMT).

The Value Line analyst was disappointed by Wal-Mart’s “lackluster same-store sales increases at domestic stores in November and December”. He likes the prospective federal minimum wage increase (ie, more money for Wal-Mart shoppers), but he accepts the concerns of management with respect to the growing unionization movement. He cut the Fiscal 2007 share-earnings estimate by a nickel to $3.15, and lowered the “2” technical rating to a “3” this week.

At the end of the day, WMT is likely to have double-digit earnings increases in 2007 and 2008, which I believe will be ahead of the broad market performance. Despite losing all hopes of being a corporate model, neither the company nor the stock is broken. In fact, Return on Total Capital (+15.0 pct) and Return on Equity (+18.0 pct) estimates by Value Line through the next three to five years keep this company in the Cara 100.

At $47.97, the stock is in the middle of its current trading range. What I like about the price pattern, however, is that WMT has been in what is called a long base for seven and a half years. That pattern is similar to what occurred in the 1990’s through into 1Q97. In what I refer to as a healthy economy similar to what occurred in 1H97-2H99, WMT stock performed extremely well. The PE multiple ballooned. I think that something similar will happen in the next couple years, for a couple reasons.

First, I think the “fuel price” burden on Americans reached its peak in 2006. Second, I think that international store growth will continue, and in countries where maybe the present style Wal-Mart store would look like a top of the line retailer. Third, it is obvious that the food retailing has done well, and I think there is plenty of room for expansion there. Finally, I think that no other company in the world has managed to outperform Wal-Mart’s global purchasing and logistical shipping systems. There is no reason that Wal-Mart cannot rely on Internet sales and product delivery systems like say Amazon in order to build top line growth.

As I say, Wal-Mart is not a broken company. For irrefutable proof, go to the Value Line report and look at the 18-year table of annual results for (i) sales per share (ii) cash flow per share (iii) earnings per share (iv) dividends per share, and so forth. These are the operating metrics that long-term traders care most about. For Wal-Mart, for this 18-year annual table, every metric for every year has increased. Very few companies in your portfolio have accomplished that remarkable feat.

Now look at the table on the left of the report, entitled Annual Rates. For the past five years, while the stock price has been absolutely caught in the doldrums, look at the solid annual growth performance of sales (+14.0 pct), cash flow (+15.5 pct), earnings (+15.5 pct), Dividends (+18.5 pct) and book value (+16.0 pct). Look at the even more impressive ten year performance results.

I’ll make a statement that may sound ludicrous, but let’s take the current graduates of America’s top business schools (Wharton, Harvard and the like) who are going to start their own companies. Let’s look at all those who have done that in the past five or ten years. I defy any researcher to prove that the median performance of America’s brightest young students in a corporate ownership setting have beaten or will beat the performance of Wal-Mart.

So for all the moaning and complaining I hear from the bright light-bulbs of the TV Talking Heads with regard to Wal-Mart, I say put up or shut up.

Does that mean I am a buyer of the stock today? Hardly. But I would buy it at $43 (if, as and when the price drops that low in a Bear market), take a $0.70 dividend (or more) in the ensuing four quarters, and set a 12-month Price Target of $61 (ie, 19.4 times projected 2007 earnings of $3.15/share). Yes, the PE multiple is lower than that today, but it won’t be when the stock reaches what I call the Distribution Zone.

I recognize the importance of Wal-Mart to resolve some difficult labor-management issues. The size and profile of the company makes it a target (no pun intended) for political activists. As a socially-conscious person, I have read the literature, and do agree that both sides have some valid arguments, but on balance I stand behind the company.

In my view, Wal-Mart management will survive the present media and political activist onslaught, just as Exxon did following the Valdez accident. And when the share price starts to lift, it always surprises me how the vocal opposition seems to just disappear.

Traders have to put these things into perspective. The world is facing a growing debt crisis that makes the Wal-Mart issues seem laughable. Fortress has debt up the wazzoo, but isn’t as solid as Wal-Mart, which is the salt of the earth.

But traders seem to love debt. Go FIGure.

Ah, but I FIGure the US stock market is presently just +1 pct away from stumbling. A fall of the Dow 30 below 12450 from its present level of 12580 may set a lot of traders off looking at the size of their debt. And if they start to sell equities to clear that debt, that 12450 level will become a distant memory. Bankers of course will still be holding that debt and requiring full debt service or payment in full.

I don’t know that will happen quite just yet. I kinda feel the stock market is a couple months away from reversing the primary bullish trend. But I think we are at a point like May 2006. The difference of course is that there was another round of money printing through the 2H06 as the US housing industry peaked and headed south. This time there is a sub-prime lender problem, which means that lousy credits are becoming bad debts. And I’m not so sure the banks want to pump up that debt balloon even more.

So we might now finally be in the terminal phase of the stock market cycle. What we need to watch are those US Treasury yields. That will be the key.

Bond traders are smart people; if they see that the banks are not going to pump more money into the system, they will start demanding higher yields for the added risk they take on by purchasing bonds.

As yields rise, equity traders seeking income will start to switch from stocks into high yield fixed income. The leading interest rate sensitive segment of the market (Utilities, Telecoms and Financials) will start to undergo the process of sector rotation. Then, should the current and next quarter earnings disappoint, the middle economically-sensitive segment of the market (consumers, technology and industrials) will roll-over. Spurred by late-cycle moves into solid assets like oils and metals, the commodity-price sensitive segment will peak (Basic Materials, Energy and finally the Precious Metals).

That would be a traditional stock market cycle. If the cycle moves forward much as I suspect, we’ll see a rolling top with the Dow stuck in the 11800-12450 range for the next four or five months. If the right sectors are held, there will be plenty of time to go to cash, as I see it. But, when you see a melt-up in the Precious Metals prices, I believe that will be the final act of this Bull market.

At that point, the central banks of the world will pull the lever on credit. You don’t want to have your assets stuck in the guillotine at that point. I’m still thinking we're headed to Dow 8800, although a good case (based on low interest rates and high corporate earnings) could be made for a cycle low of about 9800.

In any case, I am looking for Dow 10000 (2007) before Dow 15000 (2009).

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: The key Tokyo (Nikkei 225) had a losing week (-0.24 pct), but was pumped up Friday, particularly in the afternoon session, which made things appear strong. Double top with last April, maybe? The other key market is London, where the FTSE 100 was up +1.14 pct W/W. I’ll get into the India, China and Russia markets, which are looking rather shaky in 2007.

U.S. Equities : After a week of “super” gains across the Board, this week was rough for the Russell small cap (-0.3 pct), S&P 500 (-0.7 pct), Nasdaq (-0.7 pct) and the Dow 30 (-0.6 pct). Actually they had a rough Friday afternoon. A week ago I questioned the “super week” and opined that “Many traders seem to be hitting the “Easy” button, but the smart ones aren’t wandering too far from their Sell button.” On Friday afternoon, traders abandoned all ten sectors except energy and basic materials, which were down but not smashed. The action on Monday in international markets and the open in NY will speak volumes.

Dow 30 : A week earlier there were 25 Dow stocks up and 5 down, but this week it was only 8 up and 22 down. Friday was a killer. I can’t fathom why GM would be up +6.5 pct on Friday, when other than BA, MCD and MO (which were up modestly), there were 26 Dow stocks getting hammered, and the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) was down -0.93 pct on the day. I suspect this GM trading is the action of a very few traders.

U.S. Sector ETFs: After a week earlier when there were 10 ETF’s up and none down, this week it was 1 up (XLU) and 9 down. What a difference this Friday made.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #3 (-0.4 pct); The whole loss was Friday
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #2 (-0.1 pct); Friday’s loss was -0.5 pct
20: Industrials (XLI): #7 (-0.9 pct); The “General” (GE) down -2.04 pct.
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 (-0.6 pct); Friday loss was -0.9 pct
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #8 (-1.0 pct); PG and MO down -1.4 pct each
35: Healthcare (IYH): #4 (-0.5 pct); MRK down -2.0 pct and PFE -1.6 pct
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #5 (-0.6); Friday loss was -0.9 pct as Bonds sagged
45: Tech (SMH chips): #9 (-1.2 pct); Friday’s loss -1.3 pct; MSFT -4.1 pct
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #10 (1.3 pct); “Big T” went tiny (-3.2 pct)
55: Utilities (XLU): #1 (+2.5 pct); 3rd straight week of rising Bonds

Bonds: U.S. Bonds had a good week this week as the yields on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year Treasuries dropped -3 and -4 basis points (bp). The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield upped 1 bp to 4.99 pct. Yields are still about +15 bp higher than the final week of 2006.

Commodities: $CRB lifted +1.3 pct W/W as metal prices lifted, and Crude Oil remained firm.

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures lifted +1.5 pct to 59.89. We are freezing in the North East. Still, isn’t this a matter of adding to Strategic Petroleum Reserves to make up for most of 2006 when it was politically important to flood the market with oil? The hypocrisy of this (any?) Administration is a real turn-off.

Gold: $GOLD, $SILVER, $PLAT and $PALL all had gains on the week, up +3.2 pct, +4.0 pct, +3.3 pct and +1.2 pct. This is an ongoing struggle with the $USD.

Goldminers: $XAU, GDX and XGD (TSX) were up +2.0 pct, +2.0 pct, and +1.4 pct respectively W/W (not as much as the metal). There were losses Friday (-0.2 pct, -0.4 pct and -0.8 pct respectively) as the $USD gained ground and the broad equity market tanked (Dow 30 down -0.5 pct and Toronto down -0.9 pct) for a double whammy on the precious metal stocks. Remember, with margin calls, all stocks get turfed.

Forex: This week, the $USD dropped -0.08 pct and the Euro gained +0.4 pct W/W. But the British Pound dropped -0.8 pct and the Yen dropped -0.4 pct as money flowed into Europe.

Economic calendar for next week.

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Cara Stock Watch

The Cara 100 RSI-7 Highs and Lows, sorted Monthly

Interactive link to Friday Daily RSI-7 >70 in Cara 100 (no smoothing) (8, which is down from 23 a week ago)

Interactive link to Friday Daily RSI-7 <30 in Cara 100 (no smoothing) (9, which is up from 1 a week ago)

The upward momentum was taken out of this market on Friday afternoon. We have to watch to see if the sell-off continues. Wouldn’t it be nice to be a trader at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers to get to see the orders of their friends at the Fed? This is a level playing field… yah, right!

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Here are the Cara Watch List gainers on Friday.

Please ignore the GRZ, KRY and ACH in this table. I am going to make some changes in the near future.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

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Here are the top Cara Watch List losers for Friday.

Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

If, as and when there is a new cycle of international credit tightening, then the highest beta traders ought to be affected first as these are the favorites of the hyper-active retail trading community, which tends to use too much margin and credit in general.

It would be hard for me to believe that the Fed will tighten before they see (ie, demand) that other central banks tighten. The Bank of Japan seems to be a wild card as, despite denials from Treasury Secretary Paulson, who is rapidly losing credibility, the Japanese government seems to be pulling the BoJ string there, according to widespread reports.

The public doesn’t know the facts here, but where there is smoke, we ought to assume there is probably a fire. The Japanese-induced carry trade makes no sense to me now that deflation has been beaten there. The last inflation cycle of Japan was one for the ages. I never thought we’d see such a cycle again. But if BoJ interest rates are going to be kept at near zero for a very long period, the elements are there for serious inflation issues to return.

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Sector ETF Review

The tables I show are for ten Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only. For the Tech sector, there are many sub-sector ETF’s I could have selected, but I feel the chip industry is a leading group, and a very important one. In the near future, I intend to devote more time and space to ETF’s.

Of the ten I have been following here, only 1 of 10 was up this week, which was Utilities (XLU). The majority of the high dividend-paying Dow Utilities Average had big moves up again this week as Treasury yields dropped for the third consecutive week. Public Service Enterprise (PEG) jumped +4.34 pct W/W. It’s moved up ~+8 pct in three weeks. But, watch this one (and the others) sag if and when Treasury yields start heading north again.

The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	38.04	0.13	0.34%	2.53%	4.94%	5.17%	3.31%	6.73%	11.88%	19.77%
XLB	36.60	-0.17	-0.46%	-0.08%	1.44%	5.05%	5.75%	7.55%	17.95%	18.22%
XLE	58.39	-0.24	-0.41%	-0.41%	2.71%	8.01%	3.20%	0.67%	-0.36%	10.73%
IYH	68.53	-0.29	-0.42%	-0.52%	1.21%	1.15%	3.11%	6.58%	9.37%	7.58%
XLF	37.16	-0.35	-0.93%	-0.62%	0.92%	0.54%	0.65%	4.74%	14.16%	17.04%
XLY	39.46	-0.37	-0.93%	-0.63%	1.62%	0.79%	2.44%	6.05%	24.83%	18.89%
XLI	35.85	-0.14	-0.39%	-0.94%	1.82%	1.04%	1.76%	4.06%	15.05%	13.23%
XLP	26.52	-0.04	-0.15%	-1.04%	0.11%	-0.11%	0.91%	3.84%	7.67%	14.11%
SMH	33.90	-0.46	-1.34%	-1.22%	0.24%	-3.09%	0.98%	2.11%	9.18%	-11.93%
IYZ	30.44	-0.37	-1.20%	-1.30%	0.76%	3.43%	2.63%	6.99%	16.81%	26.31%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s. I do that frequently because the list of ETF’s growing incredibly fast.

You know of course that ETF’s can be used to pump up markets very quickly. All it takes is for hedge funds to take on more debt/margin. The flip side of that coin is when the debt/margin is called – maybe because of bad trading, or maybe just because other traders are selling and the collateral value starts falling, which requires more margin by everybody.

What I’m saying is that ETF’s have been sending the market up on a rocket, and they can (and will) send it down on a rocket (at some point).

This reminds me of an incident one year at the Ft. Lauderdale Christmas Parade of Lights of boats on the IntraCoastal. In addition to strings of lights, one of the boats was decked out in fireworks. But, just as they passed by the Bahia Mar Marina, a wave hit that boat, knocking the fireworks stand on its side – just as they started firing. The rockets went directly into the crowd maybe 100 feet away on the other side. From experience, I’m saying you don’t want to be facing incoming rockets without any protection.

So, if you are close to the line with margin, it’s probably time to consider lightening up some long positions before your portfolio gets lit up.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

A week ago I wrote: “XLE has been moving higher for a couple weeks as (i) OPEC has been making noise about production cut-backs, (ii) the President announced recently that Strategic Petroleum Reserves would be start to be re-built after seven months of do-nothing, and (iii) weather in the industrial US north-east has turned quite cold, finally.”

This week after hitting an opening 59, XLE side-tracked between 57.75 and 59. It wasn’t as weak as the Consumer, Financial and Tech/Telephony sectors, but maybe traders are saying they don’t see Crude Light moving well up into the mid-60’s at this point.

This week, XLE lost -0.41 pct to 58.39, which is a loss of 24 cents, all of which was suffered Friday afternoon. $WTIC gained this week by +1.5 pct to $59.89.

The energy market is the world’s biggest commodity market. Wars are fought over it. Political regimes change because of policies related to it. The amount of trader disinformation regarding it is second to none (like Ethanol for example).

In other words, this is a tough market to trade. Ask the Amaranth hedge fund traders.

Government involvement in the ridiculous notion of Strategic Petroleum Reserves is just another way government intervenes in supposedly free capital markets. I happen to believe that the foundation market principle of “full, true and plain disclosure” applies to ALL OF US, not just A FEW OF US. So when does the nonsense of hidden political (and central bank) agendas stop impacting the right of the people to protect and grow their capital in “free” capital markets?

It is only when you can appreciate that we the people have a real problem here will you be able to participate in finding a solution to it. This is the biggest question of our generation, and it was only until after the Internet came along (ie, unrestricted many-to-many communications) did I see a light at the end of the tunnel.

This week I happened to be watching ROBTV interview well-known “personality” Dennis Gartman, who was telling the audience how free and fair are capital markets today. He was piling on the crapola faster than I could shake my head, so I just turned off the TV station.

The fact that governments, central banks, so-called “private equity,” hedge funds (and their agents) can trade without “full, true and plain disclosure,” against the rest of us, is patently unfair to society, and, listen to me, it will become the source of increasing social dysfunction (eg, conflict and crime) until the system finally collapses.

It’s only a matter of time.

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Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IMO	35.90	0.20	0.56%	1.76%	4.73%	12.33%	0.67%	-5.15%	-10.70%	-64.53%
ECA	48.67	-0.12	-0.25%	1.00%	3.66%	8.78%	7.34%	-4.17%	-11.51%	14.01%
XOM	75.22	-0.24	-0.32%	-0.42%	2.19%	5.97%	1.50%	0.82%	8.56%	25.53%
TOT	68.34	-0.46	-0.67%	-0.74%	2.21%	2.54%	-3.71%	-4.16%	1.17%	5.37%
CVX	73.32	-0.43	-0.58%	-0.97%	2.55%	6.74%	3.31%	4.44%	8.65%	28.86%
SU	72.45	-0.27	-0.37%	-2.07%	-2.79%	3.93%	-1.98%	-10.36%	-15.13%	-3.18%
CEO	82.96	-1.87	-2.20%	-2.33%	-3.98%	-2.01%	-12.00%	-4.23%	-6.39%	-1.24%
STO	26.05	-0.08	-0.31%	-3.09%	-0.38%	9.87%	1.40%	-4.40%	-12.20%	0.31%
PBR	95.35	-1.23	-1.27%	-4.13%	-2.07%	2.19%	-4.32%	3.34%	0.77%	10.87%

A week ago I wrote: “The oils had been over-sold in early January, relative to the broad market. Now they have caught up.” This week XLE did zip.

The foreign oils, PBR (-4.1 pct), STO (-3.1 pct), CEO (-2.3 pct, including -2.2 pct on Friday) and TOT (-0.7 pct) didn’t do well this week despite the commodity prices remaining firm.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

A couple of the Canadian energy majors did well (IMO and ECA) because when energy prices trade back to 60, there is less concern about increasing operating costs in the Western Canadian oil sands.

As long as Crude Oil stays in the 50’s as a long-term cycle low, I feel the Western Canadian Oil Sands is a no-brainer.

The IMO 12 month data is bad. I will correct this data when I can. Stay tuned.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB), dipped again this Friday for the second consecutive week because of the smack-down in metal prices. The XLB closed down just -0.08 pct W/W, at 36.60, despite being down -0.46 pct on Friday, mostly in the afternoon.

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BHP	43.41	-0.15	-0.34%	5.42%	7.93%	11.42%	11.68%	1.02%	4.65%	17.77%
GGB	17.34	-0.06	-0.34%	1.58%	5.09%	11.73%	5.60%	12.31%	9.75%	-15.41%
AA	32.52	-0.12	-0.37%	0.25%	1.40%	6.73%	10.88%	12.10%	12.76%	4.67%
PKX	91.36	0.54	0.59%	-0.15%	6.36%	16.98%	15.02%	24.32%	50.73%	66.47%
TS	46.93	-0.37	-0.78%	-0.30%	0.28%	-1.49%	-3.28%	5.98%	29.14%	52.27%
TCK	70.47	-0.18	-0.25%	-1.26%	-3.39%	2.16%	1.76%	-8.98%	6.68%	0.00%
RTP	208.81	-4.17	-1.96%	-1.85%	-1.35%	1.39%	2.31%	-7.96%	1.37%	6.69%
MT	46.66	-0.87	-1.83%	-1.89%	2.28%	17.00%	14.36%	10.96%	44.01%	39.70%
RIO	33.27	-0.44	-1.31%	-2.20%	0.82%	15.28%	15.44%	21.20%	44.59%	40.74%
NUE	61.65	-1.72	-2.71%	-4.91%	0.28%	10.15%	13.12%	2.56%	18.97%	55.76%

The leading steelmaker Nucor (NUE) dropped -4.9 pct W/W, with a Friday drop of -2.7 pct. A week earlier the share price had enjoyed a great week as product prices increased.

After an incredible run up for the previous two weeks, Arcelor Mittal Steel (MT) took a big hit on Friday (-1.8 pct). The chart looks ominous, but I suspect that this Steel group is not quite ready to come down to lower price levels. We’ll have to see, of course, what happens at the open on Monday, ie, if there is much follow-through to the market sell-off that started Friday afternoon.

The big metal miner BHP was up +5.4 pct. Rio Tinto (RTP) and CVRD (RIO) were weak, particularly on Friday.

Why was BHP so strong? Well, this is what traders seem to like: bigger profits; bigger dividends; and (especially) huge share buy-backs.

BHP reported net profits for the six months ending Dec. 31 jumped 41.3 pct to a record $6.16 billion, from $4.36 billion a year ago, due to very high commodity prices. They also raised the interim dividend to $0.20 per share from $0.18 per share in the year-earlier period. The stunning news, however, was their plan to return $10 billion to shareholders over 18 months in a stock buyback plan.

Last week I wrote about the positive cash flow effect of high commodity prices on the oils and metal stocks, and how I see the market cycle playing out: “As long as the $USD stays in a falling trend, the metals, steelmakers and the oils should all continue to do well. My belief is that the market is in a long-term market cycle final melt-up, which will see the biggest stock price increases in the $USD price sensitive sectors. That’s because I believe the Fed has been jabbering anti-inflation by way of their mouth while being excessively accommodative in their actions. When that cycle ends, which will be when the public starts screaming about too high oil and metal prices, so too will the Fed reverse policy. They will then tighten on the one hand and, as stock prices start falling, they will start dropping the Fed rate.”

Yes, let the cycle play itself out before deciding on whether or not Ben Bernanke has been doing a “brilliant” job. “I must admit that Bernanke has been brilliant (in the positive sense). But being clear-spoken doesn’t always mean being straight-forward.”

And recall my words of a week ago: “I still don’t understand how the Fed and the Administration can participate in the buying and selling of stocks, bonds and physicals (gold, silver, oil) in the open market without the public being given all the details. That’s not an honest market. That’s like playing cards in a casino and not knowing the dealer has 47 or 57 cards in the deck. If there is one thing that has to happen, it’s having full, true and plain disclosure by all participants in capital markets. If you happen to think the US Fed and Administration has the right to trade in secret, then ask yourself how they are accessing the market without some people knowing. When the FOMC head trader puts in a bid or offer, he’s doing it via accounts with banks and broker-dealers. Those traders have a clue what’s happening.”

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was down -0.94 pct W/W to close at 35.85, despite 3M (MMM) and Honeywell (HON) being up, and Boeing (BA) being flat.

A continuing fly in the ointment is “The General” (GE), which dipped -2.04 pct W/W. While the Dow 30 and S&P 500 markets have done well over 12 months, GE is up just +7.9 pct. There are only eight worse performers in the Dow 30 over the past year, so I guess you can count GE as one of the recent Dogs of the Dow.

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Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4 Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ERJ	44.57	0.33	0.75%	8.39%	10.90%	12.98%	9.29%	6.40%	32.41%	17.91%
ABB	18.54	0.06	0.32%	1.81%	6.12%	7.79%	4.04%	20.62%	42.62%	73.27%
MMM	74.54	-0.10	-0.13%	0.91%	-5.27%	-5.23%	-4.75%	-5.53%	9.14%	3.36%
HON	46.24	-0.33	-0.71%	0.17%	4.78%	1.16%	2.53%	9.57%	24.57%	17.00%
BA	90.00	0.48	0.54%	-0.06%	5.35%	1.31%	0.93%	5.75%	16.64%	24.98%
UTX	67.58	-0.47	-0.69%	-0.62%	2.33%	6.09%	7.59%	4.11%	12.05%	19.17%
CAT	64.80	-0.83	-1.26%	-0.69%	6.07%	8.00%	5.95%	9.46%	-5.43%	-5.33%
FDX	113.39	-0.36	-0.32%	-1.38%	3.19%	5.31%	3.30%	-0.08%	15.23%	13.90%
GE	35.53	-0.21	-0.59%	-2.04%	-1.50%	-6.30%	-6.43%	0.68%	10.07%	7.93%

Colin Twiggs opines that the Dow Transports failed to confirm the primary Bull market. In my view, Fedex (FDX) has such a high weighting in the Transports today and is such a global player that the old US market-based Dow Theory, with respect to Transports, is less relevant.

FDX, by the way, dropped -1.4 pct W/W, closing at $113.39.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down -0.63 pct W/W to close at 39.46, after being hit -0.93 pct on Friday, mostly in the afternoon.

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NKE	103.60	0.21	0.20%	3.39%	8.82%	3.62%	6.07%	11.69%	34.76%	23.50%
EBAY	33.52	-0.07	-0.21%	3.30%	5.91%	10.88%	11.10%	3.78%	36.32%	-15.20%
TM	132.06	-0.04	-0.03%	0.60%	0.40%	2.55%	-2.39%	7.90%	21.27%	28.83%
JCP	82.85	-0.60	-0.72%	-1.02%	2.21%	5.58%	6.14%	4.15%	29.45%	49.90%
DIS	34.36	-0.93	-2.64%	-2.33%	-0.55%	-1.80%	0.47%	2.32%	19.18%	28.59%
WHR	89.99	-0.51	-0.56%	-2.56%	1.61%	4.53%	6.30%	1.68%	19.99%	2.99%
SBUX	32.97	-0.45	-1.35%	-3.79%	-2.69%	-7.93%	-6.47%	-10.70%	11.57%	-6.31%
BC	33.23	-0.53	-1.57%	-3.96%	-1.72%	8.99%	4.10%	7.40%	16.51%	-13.71%
CCL	48.45	-1.12	-2.26%	-6.41%	-6.76%	-4.63%	-4.91%	0.58%	28.86%	-7.25%

Nike (NKE) continued to run ahead of the pack this week (+3.4 pct) after being up +5.25 pct the prior week, which now puts the current quarter (13 weeks) up +11.7 pct.

Brunswick Corp (BC) finally had a leaky boat, losing -4.0 pct W/W.

And speaking of boats (ships actually), Carnival Cruise Line (CCL) hit the shoals, sinking by -6.4 pct this week.

Starbucks (SBUX -3.8 pct); Whirlpool (WHR -2.6 pct) and Disney (DIS -2.3 pct) all had weekly losses as well. Maybe consumers have run out of tickee. For sure the sub-prime lender customer is getting cut off.

There is a message here.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) dropped -1.04 pct. The beer companies (BUD -2.6 pct and ABV -1.9 pct) and the soda pop companies (PEP -1.7 pct and KO -1.00 pct) and household necessities (PG -1.4 pct) and smokers’ necessities (MO -1.4 pct) were the worst of the Staples lot.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WFMI	45.61	0.28	0.62%	2.10%	7.29%	-0.52%	0.29%	-6.34%	-4.98%	-30.12%
WAG	45.43	-0.33	-0.72%	0.24%	0.53%	-1.37%	-1.39%	7.88%	-5.20%	5.65%
DEO	79.15	-0.04	-0.05%	-0.01%	0.85%	1.87%	-0.48%	4.57%	11.95%	32.23%
WMT	47.97	-0.34	-0.70%	-0.23%	0.63%	0.78%	0.88%	3.41%	9.27%	4.97%
KO	47.76	-0.10	-0.21%	-1.00%	-0.15%	-2.01%	-1.69%	2.38%	9.17%	16.49%
MO	85.39	0.17	0.20%	-1.35%	-2.97%	-4.49%	-1.29%	5.60%	6.52%	18.89%
PG	64.43	-0.16	-0.25%	-1.39%	-0.66%	-0.32%	-0.17%	0.99%	8.21%	8.07%
PEP	63.91	0.60	0.95%	-1.74%	-0.84%	-1.60%	1.90%	1.95%	1.70%	10.74%
ABV	51.23	-0.42	-0.81%	-1.93%	0.65%	4.55%	4.34%	13.74%	23.74%	25.72%
BUD	50.05	-0.14	-0.28%	-2.57%	-1.73%	0.74%	1.69%	5.97%	4.29%	23.49%

Whole Foods Markets Inc (WFMI) lifted by +2.1 pct this week to close at $45.61, making it a two-week rally of +7.3 pct. I hope WFMI is a worthwhile case study for using the Relative Strength Index (Monthly-Weekly-Daily) technical indicator as an effective trader tool.

My new book will cover my use of RSI in some detail. Also, after I get the TraderWizard.com website going again, I will be using it as a teaching facility as well as a marketing site for my book.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF lost -0.52 pct W/W to close at 68.53.

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GSK	56.38	0.54	0.97%	1.02%	3.24%	6.24%	4.78%	9.48%	3.37%	8.74%
AET	42.57	-0.36	-0.84%	0.12%	3.91%	0.57%	-0.72%	8.96%	22.86%	-14.23%
BMET	42.25	-0.13	-0.31%	0.02%	0.84%	0.72%	1.88%	11.51%	25.52%	15.60%
NVS	58.39	-0.28	-0.48%	-0.29%	1.48%	0.67%	0.43%	-1.47%	4.42%	7.33%
BMY	28.52	-0.18	-0.63%	-0.42%	8.81%	7.46%	8.11%	16.03%	35.04%	26.25%
AMGN	69.02	-0.76	-1.09%	-0.62%	-3.47%	-4.02%	0.91%	-6.13%	2.59%	-2.80%
DNA	86.79	-0.26	-0.30%	-0.70%	0.25%	-0.70%	6.10%	6.69%	8.01%	3.93%
JNJ	65.60	-0.16	-0.24%	-1.47%	-0.71%	-1.69%	-1.20%	-0.83%	3.60%	12.04%
PFE	26.38	-0.06	-0.23%	-1.57%	0.34%	-0.30%	0.34%	2.09%	0.88%	0.15%
UNH	50.88	-0.36	-0.70%	-3.84%	-1.28%	-6.56%	-3.21%	12.39%	3.88%	-12.40%

Managed care provider United Health (UNH) stumbled -3.8 pct. Lehman Bros had reduced the group rating a week ago.

This past week in Canada there was a public debate about whether or not a nursing home was responsible for the death of a patient who stepped outside for a smoke, and froze. The comments I heard were that a nursing home that doesn’t provide a smoking room should be responsible, but others were saying that why should a nursing home facilitate a person’s death, given that cigarettes are proven killers. I see the issue as straight-forward; unless the patient signed out, the nursing home was clearly responsible. When persons enter a nursing home, they legally turn over control of their life to the care provider, and clearly by allowing patients to go out into the freezing cold, without supervision, and without signing out, the nursing home was negligent. There needs to be tougher laws in this area. That will raise the costs and reduce the profits in this industry.

Also the government’s understated inflation with respect to the Cost of Living has affected all social payments. This is an area that is crying out for attention.

My take is that the Democrats, especially if Hilary Clinton gains the White House, will bring in legislation that will negatively impact share prices in this sector. I only have five Healthcare companies (GICS 35) in the Cara 100, and soon Biomet (BMET) will be removed as private equity concerns are in the process of acquiring it.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) lost -0.62 pct W/W, closing at 37.16. Friday’s loss was -0.93 pct, so you might say the Financials had a bad week on Friday afternoon.

Maybe the late-in-the-week downer is linked to this weekend’s G-7 meeting in Germany. I don’t quite know yet, but we’re starting to hear some bizarre statements from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson with respect to Japan and the carry trade.

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Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSR	59.15	-0.11	-0.19%	2.76%	6.25%	7.66%	10.87%	15.73%	-1.00%	40.13%
GS	213.28	-0.62	-0.29%	-0.07%	-0.10%	0.66%	6.26%	15.42%	42.18%	51.42%
UBS	63.51	-0.51	-0.80%	-0.09%	2.95%	4.56%	3.45%	4.75%	19.83%	18.93%
JPM	50.42	-0.51	-1.00%	-1.00%	1.45%	4.37%	4.89%	6.73%	13.69%	26.78%
DB	138.42	-1.10	-0.79%	-1.04%	0.23%	4.66%	2.28%	10.06%	26.53%	28.27%
C	53.40	-1.04	-1.91%	-2.31%	-2.32%	-1.42%	-3.35%	5.51%	11.65%	16.62%
MER	92.62	-1.74	-1.84%	-2.52%	-2.02%	-3.80%	-1.06%	5.88%	28.75%	26.74%
MS	81.78	-1.04	-1.26%	-2.69%	-0.41%	-0.72%	0.20%	9.26%	26.44%	33.67%
LEH	83.30	-1.12	-1.33%	-2.91%	2.75%	2.70%	5.94%	16.68%	28.91%	20.53%
HBC	89.42	-0.36	-0.40%	-3.34%	-2.21%	-0.68%	-3.82%	-8.18%	-2.03%	8.23%

A week ago, Lehman Bros announced a buy-back of 100 million shares in stock ($8.5 billion purchase), which pumped the price. The Credit Suisse ticker symbol in this table is wrong (CSR was changed to CS some time ago). CSR has jumped up almost +24 pct from a low of about $58 in October to a high this month of $72. Perhaps that move has something to do with the $6 billion buy-back that was announced two weeks ago.

The question is why are these supposedly brilliant bankers buying their stock back at the top of a market cycle? Whose interests are they serving?

Perhaps they are filling the coffers of major client accounts that can be counted upon to buy back into the stock at the cycle bottom? You might even, if you happen to be as sceptical as me, think there is an unwritten agreement in place to do just that. We’ll never know of course because “full, true and plain disclosure” s a principle that only we the people are supposed to abide by.

This stuff goes on all the time on Wall Street. It’s part of the business. As an example, the Wealth Management division of Bank A buys the new issues underwritten by Bank B, and the Wealth Management division of Bank B then buys the new issues underwritten by Bank A. They do this because Banks A and B are part of HB&B, which has implemented rules and regulations that are deemed essential to the protection of the clients’ interests.

What hogwash. You show me a rule that HB&B brings in, and I’ll say that HB&B already figured a way to side-step that rule. The public doesn’t know; but it ought to. It has a right to know, which is why I write for reasons of advancing the cause of social equity.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) had a rough week, down -1.22 pct to close at 33.90.

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Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CTSH	92.12	-1.87	-1.99%	7.33%	10.83%	13.85%	18.47%	21.29%	42.14%	67.34%
QCOM	38.31	0.05	0.13%	3.01%	2.13%	-2.96%	2.27%	9.99%	14.26%	-17.01%
CSCO	27.67	-0.48	-1.71%	1.99%	5.01%	-3.56%	-0.25%	3.56%	39.89%	41.53%
INFY	59.41	-1.10	-1.82%	0.80%	4.21%	5.94%	6.43%	10.82%	47.38%	58.85%
SAP	46.30	-0.13	-0.28%	0.37%	0.22%	-4.54%	-12.97%	-8.95%	4.09%	-7.82%
INTC	21.02	-0.33	-1.55%	-0.99%	2.39%	-4.11%	3.29%	2.94%	20.80%	0.10%
SNDK	40.25	-1.57	-3.75%	-1.35%	-5.80%	-8.11%	-3.52%	-12.75%	-12.99%	-34.10%
ADBE	37.63	-0.42	-1.10%	-3.44%	-4.15%	-5.64%	-5.74%	-5.19%	19.65%	-1.29%
ORCL	16.65	-0.07	-0.42%	-4.42%	-2.92%	-4.31%	-4.91%	-10.19%	11.37%	31.21%
ADSK	41.94	-0.30	-0.71%	-5.31%	-1.25%	-4.51%	3.40%	20.73%	27.48%	12.86%

This was a bad week for Autodesk (ADSK -5.3 pct), Micron (MU -4.6 pct), Oracle (ORCL -4.4 pct), Microsoft (MSFT -4.1 pct), Adobe (ADBE -3.4 pct) and SanDisk (SNDK -1.4 pct).

The air is coming out of the Tech balloon. Look down the 4-week changes if you have any doubt.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) was the biggest loser of the week, dropping -1.30 pct.

I warned a week ago about AT&T (T). I wrote: “AT&T has to be the story of the year, I think. But the price is now very high in the Distribution Zone with M-W-D RSI-7 values of 91.0-75.9-85.8. Not that I ever figured AT&T for a Cara 100 company, it was clearly a high dividend paying company that had been assimilating its prey without difficulty. This was a restructuring story of the highest magnitude. So we all knew the company wasn’t going away. When there was an opportunity to buy the shares four years ago when the M-W-D RSI values were under 30, that would have been a good time to buy. But the big move in the stock has been made since May 2006, at the point I called a top in the long market cycle (2002-2006). T carried this market on its back after the oils started south in the 3Q06. The question now is, where to from here. The company is carrying a lot of debt. Should interest rates not head down this year, this is a stock that might give back some profits. Besides the “Triple Play” of cable seems to be making relentless gains.”

Traders must be listening; this week the Big T grew Tiny, losing -3.2 pct.

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) were up +2.53 pct W/W to close at 38.04. The previous week XLU gained +2.34 pct. I continue to be impressed. As I say, where are all the new subscribers coming from?

This could be a move to higher dividend paying stocks.

Public Service Enterprise (PEG) has jumped +4.34 pct this week and almost +20 pct in the past 100 days or so. Is that a sustainable move?

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Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bond & Interest Rate Review

This was another good week for U.S. Treasury bonds as the yields dropped by -3 basis points (bp) or -4 bp to 4.87 pct, 4.76 pct, -4.75 pct and -4.88 pct respectively on the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper.

As the T-Bill yield only moved up 1 bp at 4.99 pct, the yield curve dipped slightly gain.

Talking Heads are now saying that the inversely sloping yield curve can be dismissed this time. Why, because central banks are flooding the market with liquidity, part of which buys bonds higher? The problem is a real one as we are starting to see for the sub-prime lender business.

This week the Bank of England and the European Central Bank left their Funds rate unchanged. What this chart shows, however, is that counter to the bond market, which has been depressing yields (due probably to (i) the Japanese carry trade, and (ii) continued quantitative easing, ie, money printing, and (iii) growing use of credit derivatives that seemingly take the capital “R” out of Risk), central banks have been raising rates.

I believe that when the time comes for central banks to stop the quantitative easing, this stock and bond market will start heading south quickly. Then there will be the start of some Rate easing, which in time will kick-start the next Bull market in stocks and bonds.

Until that happens, I believe that stocks are quite over-priced, and bonds are close to being fairly priced (but not yet attractive), so I am left to my old stand-by, the precious metals. But when the quantitative easing comes to a halt (which will be on account of cries from bankers that rates will need to rise unless commodity prices, including Precious Metals, fall back), that’s when it will be time to exit the PM trade as the last rail car gets sent hurtling off the track.

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Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Interactive Daily data charts:

Interactive Hourly data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.99	4.99	4.98	4.93
6 Month	4.94	4.93	4.93	4.90
2 Year	4.88	4.85	4.91	4.79
3 Year	4.79	4.75	4.84	4.70
5 Year	4.75	4.70	4.79	4.65
10 Year	4.76	4.71	4.80	4.67
30 Year	4.87	4.82	4.90	4.76

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.61	3.67	3.66	3.54
2yr AAA	3.60	3.59	3.65	3.55
2yr A	3.61	3.65	3.70	3.58
5yr AAA	3.65	3.64	3.68	3.58
5yr AA	3.54	3.57	3.73	3.51
5yr A	3.69	3.69	3.80	3.66
10yr AAA	3.73	3.72	3.83	3.65
10yr AA	3.72	3.72	3.82	3.63
10yr A	4.03	4.02	4.13	3.95
20yr AAA	4.10	4.14	4.20	4.10
20yr AA	4.05	4.04	3.96	3.98
20yr A	4.13	4.13	4.14	4.14

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.15	5.12	5.19	5.08
2yr A	5.22	5.19	5.26	5.18
5yr AAA	5.17	5.09	5.22	5.07
5yr AA	5.24	5.19	5.28	5.16
5yr A	5.30	5.26	5.35	5.22
10yr AAA	5.50	5.43	5.66	5.25
10yr AA	5.54	5.49	5.59	5.39
10yr A	5.57	5.52	5.61	5.47
20yr AAA	5.80	5.76	5.87	5.71
20yr AA	5.88	5.84	5.95	5.79
20yr A	5.93	5.90	6.01	5.85

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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TLT had a good week, up +0.49 pct W/W to 87.63 (after the previous week being up +0.33 pct).

The inflation-sensitive TIPS had a good bounce on Friday afternoon. Let’s see what Monday brings.

Fannie and Freddie reverted to losers, going down -1.4 pct and -2.2 pct respectively (a week after being up +2.5 pct and +2.4 pct respectively). Do you recall last week’s question: “Maybe traders think that BoA is going to take these USA protectorates off the government’s hands? Do you think?” hahaha

A week after the rumor mill had Bank of America ready to acquire Countrywide Financial in what would be a Humungous deal in more ways than one, CFC sunk -6.26 pct, so the stock is basically flat over two weeks.

Maybe the SEC can track down these rumor mongers, and maybe BAC and CFC spokespersons could help us out when that kind of discussion starts to materially impact market prices?

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

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SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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A week ago I opined: “I don’t see any break-out on the Daily price series of the Bonds. Other than a huge day Wednesday, followed by the first of the month distribution day on Thursday, which included some selling that ran into Friday, I don’t see anything here that says Bonds are for me.” This week, the Bonds did gain a tiny bit (unless you happen to hold the Bond King’s portfolio), and the RSI and STO indicators are looking bullish, but the bonds are still not for me here.

You see, the TLT monthly RSI-7 is 45.4. In the 2Q06, it hit 30, and so did the Weekly and Daily RSI. That was the time to be a buyer of Bonds, and the time to lighten up (per RSI/STO) was November-December. So, at this point, I’m biding my time even though I see a picture that is clearly not technically bearish.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	87.63	-0.52	-0.59%	0.49%	0.83%	-0.93%	-1.62%	-2.09%	2.01%	-3.49%
IEF	82.08	-0.22	-0.27%	0.33%	0.35%	-0.38%	-0.73%	-1.01%	0.84%	-0.94%
AGG	99.73	-0.23	-0.23%	0.30%	0.20%	-0.15%	-0.18%	-0.37%	1.05%	-0.42%
SHY	79.87	-0.08	-0.10%	0.08%	-0.13%	-0.13%	-0.21%	-0.24%	0.01%	-0.15%
TIP	98.75	-0.25	-0.25%	-0.13%	0.42%	0.30%	-0.48%	-1.84%	-2.37%	-3.83%
FNM	56.28	-0.15	-0.27%	-1.37%	1.06%	-3.22%	-5.98%	-7.78%	18.86%	3.00%
FRE	64.50	0.00	0.00%	-2.20%	0.11%	-1.44%	-4.99%	-7.87%	12.12%	-2.29%
CFC	42.21	-1.38	-3.17%	-6.26%	0.50%	-0.85%	0.24%	8.73%	23.75%	27.33%

A week ago I opined: “I think there are hedge funds that must love salting capital away in these interest-rate sensitives like CFC, FNM and FRE. Maybe they are getting squeezed. I don’t know but I do know that when I hear unsubstantiated rumors like Bank of America to buy out Countrywide Financial, I tend to find other places to bide my time.”

Oh my; how many hedgies got smashed this week in these three stocks!

It pays to listen to the Trader Wizard.

Sometimes.

I have to say that because I don’t want “NovaLawyer” posting more claims for class action suits against me for all the bad calls I made. Btw, when he did that, he was angry about Crystallex.

So, just for the record, look back to the precise time/date when he posted his libelous remarks on Seeking Alpha and check the price of KRY versus today. And check on Yahoo Finance for KRY the opinions of Wall Street analysts. “Worthless” stocks don’t act like that, and for the record, I don’t write about worthless stocks, nor do I allow others to here as well.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The Commodities Index is now well over 300. $CRB lifted again +1.28 pct W/W to close at 305.19.

I have written here in the past: “When that 200 day MA line is intersected by a rising $CRB, then I’ll start paying attention to Ben Bernanke. Until then, I am just going to assume that the Fed talks tough and then accommodates all their friends, which puts sufficient money into the system to push stock and bond prices and precious metals higher. And as long as Crude Oil and Food prices don’t go through the roof, I think precious metals will be allowed (to an extent) to rally.”

The 50-Day Moving Average is now 302.66, while the 200-Day MA is 322.84, so 305.19 is really not worrying the Fed.

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil:

$WTIC has lifted again from 59.02 to 59.89, which is a gain of +1.47 pct.

The 50-Day Moving Average is now 58.77, while the 200-Day MA is 65.69.

I hope you like my comment last week: “Big Oil (XOM and CVX) are now making more money than young Texans can count. When do the Dem’s start asking them to fund medicare?” Did you see the operating performance of BHP as reported this week? Even in his best year at Goldman Sachs, Hank Paulson never made that kind of money.

But, the market doesn’t look ready to knock down these commodity prices just yet. Give it a couple months. Then I expect the so-called “strategic” oil reserve purchases will stop, yet again, and the price of Crude Oil will plummet back to 50. Oh, to be in on that inside group phone call to friends & Family of the Administation.

You don’t think Hiliary and the others are each going to raise a half billion dollars to fund their reach for the White House brass ring just to be told they are out of the loop on these important phone calls, do you?

I mean, do you recall an Arkansas Governor’s wife who never in her life had traded commodities, but all of a sudden made humungous gains in a single contract she couldn’t explain. Well, if, as and when she regains the keys to the White House, those humungous gains will be HUMUNGOUS.

A half billion dollar publicity campaign! We’re talking big leagues here. Forget Arkansas. We’re talking Queen of the “Free” World.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

Last week I wrote about how I had made a call in gold at the $600 level a couple weeks ago. I opined: “Yes, that was the cycle bottom. I’m glad you were listening.”

This week, $GOLD gained +3.19 pct to 672.30. The 50d MA is at 637.29 and the more important 200d MA is at 625.81.

Today, spot gold had quite a pop! Up 11.10 to 665.60.

Enjoy.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER was strong, going up +4.04 pct W/W, closing at 13.91. The 50-day MA $SILVER is now 13.25 and the 200-day MA is 12.31.

A week I wrote: “I still like SLW and PAAS, but I see that analysts like Silver Standard (SSRI) a lot. I like them all. Silvercorp (my friend Rui Feng) is doing great things in China. I wish they had a full US listing though.”

Well, SVM.TO jumped from C$18.30 to C$18.95. Great earnings. Download Silvercorp's Feb 9 news release.

The others were up as well this week.

Interactive 60-minute data

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT increased +3.32 pct to 1202.60. The 50-Day MA for $PLAT is now 1149.92 and the 200-Day MA is 1186.06.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL had another slow week, rising +1.23 pct W/W to close at 344.01. The other PM prices rallied much more.

The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for $PALL are 336.97 and 334.72 respectively, which is pretty flat, but below the current price, as is the case for the whole PM group.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER lost a bit (although the StockCharts says different), closing at 251.75 on the 2,000 lb contracts. The 50-day MA is showing as 278.12, and the 200-Day MA is 326.35. Maybe the data is inaccurate.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GG	28.50	0.15	0.53%	4.70%	4.40%	13.19%	4.24%	-0.59%	-8.09%	13.46%
AUY	13.79	-0.16	-1.15%	3.45%	4.47%	15.40%	11.84%	15.98%	26.86%	58.32%
MDG	29.89	0.00	0.00%	3.35%	6.26%	14.96%	13.69%	7.25%	4.95%	21.70%
ABX	30.84	0.05	0.16%	2.87%	5.94%	6.93%	3.39%	2.66%	-5.95%	7.01%
GFI	17.25	0.08	0.47%	2.56%	2.86%	0.70%	-5.89%	-7.01%	-19.62%	-24.54%
NEM	45.81	0.00	0.00%	2.05%	3.50%	7.74%	3.64%	-2.22%	-14.25%	-18.96%
KGC	13.25	-0.04	-0.30%	1.69%	1.61%	15.32%	16.02%	6.34%	2.08%	30.16%
AEM	40.30	-0.69	-1.68%	1.13%	1.69%	9.54%	3.55%	0.85%	6.81%	64.96%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	17.50%	0.59%	-13.85%	70.64%
BVN	28.84	-0.43	-1.47%	-1.74%	0.91%	13.10%	4.45%	3.97%	-3.45%	10.37%

Like last week, this week, the gold stocks group were doing well until Friday morning when the yellow metal got hammered, and the stocks got hit even more.

A couple weeks ago I wrote: “Over four weeks, the table here shows the damage done to this group. I believe that pullback is now over. Since then, the metal and the stocks have rallied hard. Friday morning, however, was a take-down day. There will be more of those. But, not to worry. Gold is going higher and so too will the miners. I believe the average price for gold this year will be north of $700/oz and that in two months, it will be up another +$90. This is not the time to bail on gold or the gold stocks. The critical point to quit the gold trade is when there is the clear and present danger of global central bank tightening. In the meantime, fiat money – USD, Euro, Pounds, Yen – is depreciating across the board. Since gold is priced in USD, you can see that the gold price jumps when the USD falls. But the push for gold is much more than just the falling USD.”

So, this week the gold and silver metal prices rallied +3.2 pct and +4.0 pct respectively, and the miners’ shares were up +1.4 to +2.0 pct, depending on which group ETF or index you use.

The G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank heads are in Germany this weekend. I’m surmising they and their spouses are wearing a modicum of yellow bling. Do as I say, not as I do!

I don’t see a reason to sell this rally. It’s early yet.

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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The goldminer indexes and ETF’s also lifted this week. Despite the Friday hit, $XAU, GDX and (TSE’s) XGD were up on the week +2.01 pct, +1.98 pct, and +1.36 pct respectively.

The $XAU index, currently at 141.67 (I told you last week’s price 138.88 was a lucky number). The 50d-MA (139.73) and 200d-MA (139.14) are now both below the current price. Last week I wrote that the numbers were “neutral, but the recent trend is bullish.” This week the numbers are bullish.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The $USD closed at 84.88, a loss of -0.08 pct W/W. The $USD 50-Day MA is 84.16, and the 200-Day MA is 85.19, so the current price (84.88) is still technically long-term bearish.

But you know my long-term views on the $USD anyway (smiley goes here)

The following data requires your attention M3 update as of the past week. Lot’s of good stuff here.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) gained on the week +0.40 pct W/W, closing at 130.13. The $XEU 50-Day MA is 130.83, and the 200-Day MA is 128.12, so the current price (130.13) is still technically long-term bullish, and is close to being short-term bullish as well.

This is a number that the gold Bulls are watching closely.

The British Pound was weaker, down -0.77 pct W/W to close at 195.14. The $XBP 50-Day MA is 196.03, and the 200-Day MA is 189.32, so the current price (195.14) is technically long-term bullish, but has dipped into short-term bearish levels.

The Japanese Yen was also weaker, down -0.39 pct W/W to close at 82.25. The $XJY 50-Day MA is 84.04, and the 200-Day MA is 85.79, so the current price (82.25) is technically bearish, but, as I wrote a week ago, the market is starting to think that the Bank of Japan has pushed the Yen too far down in an effort to help domestic exporters and auto makers like Toyota (TM) that seem to need the support of a falling Yen. What they need is more cash in the pockets of U.S. car buyers.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

The Canadian Dollar gained a lot this week, going up +1.08 pct W/W to close at 85.31. The $CDW 50-Day MA is 85.82, and the 200-Day MA is 88.33, so the current price (85.31) is still bearish, but not so much so.

Last week I wrote: “I am starting to hear so-called currency experts on TV talk of a 70 cent and even a 60 cent dollar. The mind boggles at how these idiots get air time.” This week, the Loonie performed magic for me. Or maybe it was my Canadian Geese? Do you think?

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International Equities Review

The India market (IFN ETF anyway) has really struggled since mid-November, and it has actually lost -7.2 pct over 12 months.

The Templeton Russia Fund, why I use to follow the usual drama in the Russian market has had a 12-month gain of +12.1 pct, but has struggled badly since the start of 2007.

The best performer by far on the year is the Shanghai China market. Over the past 12 months, the key FXI ETF is up +51.1 pct. But since the start of 2007, FXI has struggled badly like the others in this group.

The concern in China is that the authorities, having encouraged retail investing with margin, are starting to crack down on the rampant speculation that caused in the past 18 months. But I suspect there is an additional story. I am speculating that after Shanghai stocks started to move into a break-out posture, the very well-healed Chinese communities of North America, recalling the glory years of Hong Kong, sent money back with relatives to play this market. Yes, I cannot see how the average working Zhou in Shanghai has got sufficient Yuan in his/her jeans to not only buy an over-priced, under-sized house, but to bid up the Shanghai Composite from the 50’s in 1H05 to 118.04 at the end of 2006. It strikes me this is a Friends and Family type deal.

Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)
European indices (Interactive link)

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Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FXI	105.37	-1.77	-1.65%	1.37%	-0.12%	2.30%	-9.48%	17.71%	32.88%	51.07%
EWC	25.53	-0.01	-0.04%	0.79%	1.51%	5.23%	3.36%	0.27%	4.85%	10.28%
TRF	76.48	-0.02	-0.03%	0.09%	-0.62%	1.91%	-13.63%	9.41%	10.82%	12.06%
IEV	106.68	-0.72	-0.67%	-0.21%	1.76%	2.81%	1.02%	4.31%	14.71%	25.79%
SPY	143.94	-1.08	-0.74%	-0.60%	1.25%	1.25%	1.82%	4.17%	13.36%	13.87%
QQQQ	43.88	-0.62	-1.39%	-0.63%	0.71%	-2.64%	1.48%	2.45%	20.12%	7.79%
EWU	23.62	-0.16	-0.67%	-0.84%	0.60%	1.59%	0.30%	1.59%	9.15%	21.69%
EWJ	14.27	0.04	0.28%	-0.97%	0.28%	2.88%	0.49%	6.02%	6.25%	4.62%
EWZ	47.34	-0.73	-1.52%	-1.46%	0.72%	5.98%	1.37%	9.23%	19.39%	19.64%
IFN	44.55	-1.34	-2.92%	-2.84%	0.07%	2.18%	-1.74%	-5.61%	11.63%	-7.19%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan’s EWJ (which is a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) lost -0.97 pct W/W to 14.27.

The EWJ 50-Day MA is 14.17, and the 200-Day MA is 13.74, so the current price (14.27) is technically bullish.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) had a loss of -0.84 pct W/W to close Friday at 23.62. The EWU 50-Day MA is 23.57, and the 200-Day MA is 22.19, so the current price (23.62) is technically bullish.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

EWC (priced in USD) had a gain of +0.79 pct W/W to close Friday at 25.53. The EWC 50-Day MA is 25.19, and the 200-Day MA is 24.38, so the current price (25.53) is technically bullish.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities Review

All the broad market indexes in the U.S. were down this week, mostly because of a major broad-based sell-off on Friday afternoon.

The S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 small cap index were down -0.71 pct, -0.57 pct, -0.65 pct, and -0.29 pct respectively.

After last week’s huge gains I wrote: “Traders now think submitting a Buy order means hitting the “Easy” button. I am impressed by the percentage of Daily RSI-7 in the >70 range (28 pct on Friday). But I also haven’t seen such elevated Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 values for the broad market indexes in many years. In fact, it’s scary to me that the Dow 30 and S&P 500 Monthly RSI-7 values were nowhere near this high at the absolute top of the last Bull market in 2000. “

A market-sophisticated reader recommends me spending more time on the Russell 2000, which are the smallest 2000 of the largest 3000 caps in the market. So we call it a SmallCap index but the average cap is about $670 million.

In any event, as the LargeCaps and MidCaps seem to be closing shop in the USA and sending jobs abroad, it is the more entrepreneurial smaller companies that are picking up slack. So maybe all of us should be looking more at the Russell 2000 as the place to monitor the business health of America.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	36.01	2.21	6.54%	9.15%	9.35%	16.69%	22.28%	4.26%	16.99%	62.65%
DD	51.07	-0.07	-0.14%	1.63%	3.82%	4.39%	4.14%	8.08%	30.28%	27.04%
MMM	74.54	-0.10	-0.13%	0.91%	-5.27%	-5.23%	-4.75%	-5.53%	9.14%	3.36%
HD	41.00	-0.09	-0.22%	0.42%	2.65%	2.30%	-0.17%	11.26%	22.75%	4.99%
HPQ	42.23	-0.24	-0.57%	0.38%	1.30%	-0.96%	1.47%	6.75%	27.74%	33.64%
AA	32.52	-0.12	-0.37%	0.25%	1.40%	6.73%	10.88%	12.10%	12.76%	4.67%
HON	46.24	-0.33	-0.71%	0.17%	4.78%	1.16%	2.53%	9.57%	24.57%	17.00%
MCD	44.56	0.21	0.47%	0.04%	3.80%	0.11%	1.57%	5.87%	29.69%	22.75%
BA	90.00	0.48	0.54%	-0.06%	5.35%	1.31%	0.93%	5.75%	16.64%	24.98%
AIG	68.94	-0.65	-0.93%	-0.19%	0.51%	-3.30%	-4.45%	1.32%	17.87%	2.71%
WMT	47.97	-0.34	-0.70%	-0.23%	0.63%	0.78%	0.88%	3.41%	9.27%	4.97%
XOM	75.22	-0.24	-0.32%	-0.42%	2.19%	5.97%	1.50%	0.82%	8.56%	25.53%
UTX	67.58	-0.47	-0.69%	-0.62%	2.33%	6.09%	7.59%	4.11%	12.05%	19.17%
IBM	98.55	-1.07	-1.07%	-0.63%	1.13%	-0.10%	1.32%	6.63%	30.72%	22.57%
CAT	64.80	-0.83	-1.26%	-0.69%	6.07%	8.00%	5.95%	9.46%	-5.43%	-5.33%
INTC	21.02	-0.33	-1.55%	-0.99%	2.39%	-4.11%	3.29%	2.94%	20.80%	0.10%
KO	47.76	-0.10	-0.21%	-1.00%	-0.15%	-2.01%	-1.69%	2.38%	9.17%	16.49%
JPM	50.42	-0.51	-1.00%	-1.00%	1.45%	4.37%	4.89%	6.73%	13.69%	26.78%
AXP	57.53	-0.96	-1.64%	-1.08%	-0.55%	-3.23%	-4.69%	-2.34%	10.51%	8.47%
VZ	37.70	-0.25	-0.66%	-1.23%	-0.34%	1.59%	-0.32%	4.40%	11.44%	15.43%
MO	85.39	0.17	0.20%	-1.35%	-2.97%	-4.49%	-1.29%	5.60%	6.52%	18.89%
PG	64.43	-0.16	-0.25%	-1.39%	-0.66%	-0.32%	-0.17%	0.99%	8.21%	8.07%
JNJ	65.60	-0.16	-0.24%	-1.47%	-0.71%	-1.69%	-1.20%	-0.83%	3.60%	12.04%
PFE	26.38	-0.06	-0.23%	-1.57%	0.34%	-0.30%	0.34%	2.09%	0.88%	0.15%
MRK	43.82	-0.10	-0.23%	-2.03%	-4.72%	-0.99%	-0.45%	2.19%	5.69%	27.61%
GE	35.53	-0.21	-0.59%	-2.04%	-1.50%	-6.30%	-6.43%	0.68%	10.07%	7.93%
C	53.40	-1.04	-1.91%	-2.31%	-2.32%	-1.42%	-3.35%	5.51%	11.65%	16.62%
DIS	34.36	-0.93	-2.64%	-2.33%	-0.55%	-1.80%	0.47%	2.32%	19.18%	28.59%
T	36.90	-0.48	-1.28%	-3.20%	1.37%	6.99%	5.58%	10.41%	22.02%	36.01%
MSFT	28.94	-0.31	-1.06%	-4.14%	-5.42%	-5.70%	-3.08%	-1.03%	18.41%	8.55%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Dow 30 comments:

The only Value Line published report this week is on Wal-Mart (WMT), which I analyzed off the top.

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 22: next one is due Mar. 23)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Feb. 2: next one is due May. 4)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov 17: next one is due Feb. 16)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 15: next one is due Mar. 16)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Dec. 1: next one is due Mar. 2)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Dec. 1: next one is due Mar. 2)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 8: next one is due Mar. 9)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov 17: next one is due Feb. 16)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Feb. 9: next one is due May 11)

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Wrap up:

I am making some headway (timely, but also time-consuming) into cleaning up a few background issues with this website and also taking on two more sites: traderwizard.com and billcara2.com, which will be rolled out by the end of the month.

I will also be visiting Nassau Bahamas this month to take a break (yah, right!) and then getting into Olympic training for PDAC for the first week of March.

My book is slated for publishing the last week in March, after which I plan to take it easy in Bahamas (yah, right again!).

Anyway, I have to come up for air sometime because my lungs are in not the best shape. I’m looking forward to a little sun (with protection of course), sand and sea.

BillCara2.com, by the way, will be a charting service. The sub-title is “Combining Charts With News & Insights”. You see, I believe that charts are pictures that tell 1000 words. Add a brief few facts and some opinions, including alerts, and that is an educational service I think traders will want.

The programming changes plus the switchover from one web host server to another and from one webmaster to another have caused us grief this weekend. But, bear with me. This situation will be resolved, and the blog/website will be the better for it.

Enjoy your day. Wherever you are in the world, I have a feeling we are on the same page.

BCara@BillCara.com

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