« Cara’s Daytrader Bull Board, Mon., Feb. 12, 2007, 8:11 AM | Main | This blog linked by The Economist this week, Mon., Feb. 12, 2007, 10:52 AM »

February 12, 2007

India 1Q07 looking good, Mon., Feb. 12, 2007, 10:29 AM

Yes, India is looking good, but it is a good news-bad news type of deal. The stock market is not looking as good from this point forward as is the economy.


Goldman Sachs is projecting a +6.9 pct compounding annual growth rate to the economy, which would put India ahead of the UK by 2015 and the US by 2042.

That means if you are an American with a newborn son or daughter, by the time they are 35, they will be a citizen of not even the second most economically powerful nation on earth. As we already know, China will surpass America as an economic power long before 2042.

Today, Deepak Lalwani sent me the past two research pieces he did on India for London broker Astaire & Partners. Download India Report dated Feb 7 and Download India Report dated Jan 31.

The Central Bank of India has recently lifted their lending rate by 25 basis points to 7.5 pct. Credit growth is a problem in India with loans for real estate, capital markets and consumer purchases growing at about +30 pct a year. The Central Bank is starting to tighten, which will filter through the banking system.

The Central Bank has raised its estimate of GDP growth for the year ending March 31, 2007 to 8.5 to 9.0 pct. Revision to estimate for the prior year went from +8.4 pct to 9.0 pct. But the Government Central Statistics Office is forecasting a +9.2 pct growth rate. So, India is now growing at close to the China rate.

Services and manufacturing are likely to grow at least by +11.0 pct this year, while agriculture is lagging at about +2.7 pct. The economy and the sovereign credit ratings of the country are both in great shape now that S&P has joined Moody’s and Fitch rating services to bestow an investment grade rating. So high-yield government debt instruments may be attractive.

How do we play the stocks? Well, as you know I have Infosys (INFY) in the Cara 100.


I would like to add a second India company to the Cara 100 and have considered Wipro (WIT) and the two major banks ICICI (NYSE: IBN) and HDFC (NYSE: HDB).

15-Minute data series:

zzy030.gif


Daily data series:

zzy031.gif


An idea that came to me this weekend is SIFY (NDQ: SIFY), but the financial metrics of that up-and-comer are not to my liking yet. Fund manager Michael Cahill likes it as a restructuring story. He is quoted in an interview as saying:

”SIFY is a play on the Internet and Internet infrastructure of India. It is a restructuring story. The last couple of quarters have been a little choppy, but beginning in June, they hope to see some acceleration in earnings. That said, they still doubled their Ebitda from '05 to '06. They figured out a long time ago that most people in India don't have a PC, so they built Internet cafés. They have 3,552 Internet cafés. The No. 2 player is Reliance with 240 cafés, and there is no No. 3. Sify has leveraged their Internet cafes to create several portals like SifyMax.com, which is the leading broadband portal in India, and Sify.com, which is an e-commerce and mobile-game portal. Beyond that, they started building data centers to host their own data, and now they are providing the service to some big companies. They also have 208,000 broadband subscribers. They are one of the largest broadband providers in India, and they do that by working with the cable companies, which are highly fragmented in India. They are getting into travel and have a pact with the Indian railways to sell and distribute tickets through their cafés.

They have also announced a deal with Western Union for money transfers. This is an important service, because very few people in India have credit cards.”


zzy032.gif


Maybe the readers (especially from India) have some ideas for a Cara 100 company headquartered in India, poised to take advantage of the country’s rapid growth?

For the Cara 100, I look at a company with proven management, in a growth industry, with a strong balance sheet, and operating performance that has a high Return on Equity. Current share price or market capitalization is not important. In fact, I try to diversify the 100 list across the large, mid and small cap range (but not micro-cap).

The India market has a few ETF’s worth considering, plus several high-quality mutual funds if that is your interest.

As you know, I monitor the IFN ETF on a weekly basis. The IFN has struggled since mid-November, and it has actually lost -7.2 pct over 12 months.

zzy017.gif

So, please let me know your long-term views on India, and the best-looking stocks there.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 12, 2007 10:29:28 AM | Category: India

Discourse

Hi Bill:

State Bank of India is a proxy for country's growth. It doesn't have an ADR. You may want to check this one out.

Posted by: Indra [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 12, 2007 11:26 AM [link]

IFN is a closed-end fund that has lagged the Indian stock indices by a lot in the recent past. The primary reason for the performance lag is that it's holders are switching to the new Barclays ETN that holds about 68 Indian stocks that make up 75%+ of the Indian stock market cap and has almost one-fourth of the expenses (about .7% v/s over 3%). Also, IFN used to trade at huge (more than 35%) premiums in 2005 & 2006 due to various financial 'tricks' such as rights offers, big dividend etc.

Also, Indian markets are unlikely to do much till the Indian budget is baked-in - that happens end of February - till then the markets are likely to be more or less where they are or more likely be down if/when on global markets go thru' the much anticipated correction you speak of on your site.

India is probably going to be THE emerging market to invest in for the next 3-5 years, but investors should be cautious in the near term - remember in last may the Indian markets corrected by more than 33% in about a month - more than most other Emerging markets. In the meantime, read-up on the new ETN - INP at
http://www.ipathetn.com/iPath-MSCI-India-Index.jsp

Posted by: mSquare [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 12, 2007 12:11 PM [link]

Bill, I'm not from India, but I wanted to share some info. I read that many financial institutions are suggesting to invest in banks working in the field of consumer credit for future investment in Asia, because that sector sooner or later will boom like in the Western countries. So, some time ago I tried to look for some data. I couldn't find much, but some links here offer some nice information. I hope you can use their info. But... shoud we wait for the 'credit crunch' before investing?!?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_mukherjee&sid=amfbslQqFxeE
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aHZH6TpOSmJM
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/india/article.cfm?articleid=4145
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/13931.html
http://www.buyusa.gov/india/en/327.ppt


Posted by: Lelik [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 12, 2007 12:14 PM [link]

When I try to download reports by Deepak Lalwani, It is scrambled.

Anybody have better luck?

Posted by: Telestar3d [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 12, 2007 2:58 PM [link]

I believe IFN has distributed $3.46 in capital gain to the holders. I'm not sure about the date (near Nov to Jan), but it made a big loss to be a small loss.

Posted by: 1stMillionAt33 [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 13, 2007 3:00 AM [link]

hello from germany,

i think india is overheating and will face a severe correction.

just watch some homebuilder shares that gained 40.000% in three years. pe higher than google etc.

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/02/forget-googlehomebuilder-stocks-in.html

Posted by: jmf [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 13, 2007 3:47 AM [link]

Long time lurker here. I am from India and moved here about 25 years ago.

Here are my $ 0.02. I am a little out of date on some of the details

The SENSEX has gone from approximately 2,000 to 14,000. This pace should continue however there will be significant corrections along the way if the past is any indicator.

The risks are significant. India is primarily an agrarian economy. In the current climate food production has dropped and India is becoming a net importer of food after 2 decades of self sufficiency. There are lots of stories of farmers committing suicide in the press. If not handled this will be a problem and may force social and economic changes.

The good bets in India are in infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing. India needs buildings, transportation and roads, power, water, sewage infrastructure. Compared to China these are almost miniscule at present. In my opinion these are much better bets than outsourcing plays INFY, WIT etc. ( I can give my reasoning but that is whole another discussion)

Financial Services:
Someone mentioned SBI above. SBI is Indias oldest (founded 1806) and biggest bank. It is traded on LSE as a GDR symbol SBID. However it is not exactly very nimble or aggressive. It has significant labor issues (basically its workers don't work :-) ). However it is getting dragged in feet first into a new era. As mentioned above other institutions are ICICI, HDBC. ICICI literally owns the auto finance market. Not sure how ICICI can offer loans at the current rate but they are. Credit cards are completely a subprime business as there is no concept of credit ratings or social security numbers. Anyone with a pay stub can get a credit card.

For infrastructure I like the following plays in no particular order: Larsen and Tubro, Grasim, ACC, Reliance, Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM- Sales in India are increasing 60% a year on a unit basis while there are very few roads). (I really have always liked and still like TTM).

Isurance companies in India are also a target since I expect many to be taken over by multinationals looking to build in India.

If you like India outsourcing plays take a look at Nasdaq CVNS: It was originally called CBSI and the they had kicked out the founder. He is a very capable guys. It is a dark horse since most of his original crew have left him.

Note: I do not own any of the stocks above right now. My investments in India are all based on real estate. However if I had extra capital I would buy any of the above stocks on at any time. (India BSE used to have an option system called “badla”. Not sure if they still do.)

Posted by: Sanjay [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 13, 2007 10:23 AM [link]

Long time lurker here. I am from India and moved here about 25 years ago.

Here are my $ 0.02. I am a little out of date on some of the details

The SENSEX has gone from approximately 2,000 to 14,000 since 2003. This pace should continue however there will be significant corrections along the way if the past is any indicator.

The risks are significant. India is primarily an agrarian economy. In the current climate food production has dropped and India is becoming a net importer of food after 2 decades of self sufficiency. There are lots of stories of farmers committing suicide in the press. If not handled this will be a problem and may force social and economic changes. THe risks of investing in India are very significant. Expect most state and central governments to lose elections every time.

The good bets in India are in infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing. India needs buildings, transportation and roads, power, water, sewage infrastructure. Compared to China these are almost miniscule at present. In my opinion these are much better bets than outsourcing plays INFY, WIT etc. ( I can give my reasoning but that is whole another discussion)

Financial Services:
Someone mentioned SBI above. SBI is Indias oldest (founded 1806) and biggest bank. It is traded on LSE as a GDR symbol SBID. However it is not exactly very nimble or aggressive. It has significant labor issues (basically its workers don't work :-) ). However it is getting dragged in feet first into a new era. As mentioned above other institutions are ICICI, HDBC. ICICI literally owns the auto finance market. Not sure how ICICI can offer loans at the current rate but they are. Credit cards are completely a subprime business as there is no concept of credit ratings or social security numbers. Anyone with a pay stub can get a credit card.

For infrastructure I like the following plays in no particular order: Larsen and Tubro, Grasim, ACC, Reliance, Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM- Sales in India are increasing 60% a year on a unit basis while there are very few roads). (I really have always liked and still like TTM).

Isurance companies in India are also a target since I expect many to be taken over by multinationals looking to build in India.

If you like India outsourcing plays take a look at Nasdaq CVNS: It was originally called CBSI and the they had kicked out the founder. He is a very capable guys. It is a dark horse since most of his original crew have left him.

Note: I do not own any of the stocks above right now. My investments in India are all based on real estate. However if I had extra capital I would buy any of the above stocks on at any time. (India BSE used to have an option system called “badla”. Not sure if they still do.)

Posted by: Sanjay [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 13, 2007 10:25 AM [link]

Post a comment

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)


Remember me?