I live in a mid-sized town that usually avoids the excesses of the rest of the nation, but in my neighborhood we've had more houses waiting to be sold than at any time that I can remember. A number of these houses sitting unsold were bought by "flippers" in the last year. Yesterday I met another man who was looking to buy in the neighborhood as an investment, apparently thinking that now is the time to take advantage of the poor housing market. I don't think that we have shaken out the speculation yet.

Shedding some more light on the 2.7 pct vacancy rate...in my little corner of the world...in a Providence, RI suburb. There are 9 fine homes on my street and 2 are "vacant for sale". One has been vacant for 10 months (owner was job-transferred into my area and paid obscene $$ near top of the market. He was transferred again last Spring). The other has been vacant for 5 months (they'll make a killing when they sell the house -- they purchased it in 1995 -- but they're holding out for 2005 top-of-the-market $$). Never in my wildest imagination did I ever think there would be a house on my street vacant for this long a period...never mind two!

Shedding some more light on the 2.7 pct vacancy rate...in my little corner of the world...in a Providence, RI suburb. There are 9 fine homes on my street and 2 are "vacant for sale". One has been vacant for 10 months (owner was job-transferred into my area and paid obscene $$ near top of the market. He was transferred again last Spring). The other has been vacant for 5 months (they'll make a killing when they sell the house -- they purchased it in 1995 -- but they're holding out for 2005 top-of-the-market $$). Never in my wildest imagination did I ever think there would be a house on my street vacant for this long a period...never mind two!

Shedding some more light on the 2.7 pct vacancy rate...in my little corner of the world...in a Providence, RI suburb. There are 9 fine homes on my street and 2 are "vacant for sale". One has been vacant for 10 months (owner was job-transferred into my area and paid obscene $$ near top of the market. He was transferred again last Spring). The other has been vacant for 5 months (they'll make a killing when they sell the house -- they purchased it in 1995 -- but they're holding out for 2005 top-of-the-market $$). Never in my wildest imagination did I ever think there would be a house on my street vacant for this long a period...never mind two!

I remember when I bought my first house. It was on the outskirts of Toronto. 1991. The housing market had peaked in 1989 and had turned down 10% 1990. I thought I was being clever to buy with that discount.

Three years later, the market was off another 25% and stayed down a total of 30 - 35% for another few years. It was 1997 before there was a significant upward trend in prices.

Apparently, you can try to catch a falling rock in housing as well as you can in the stock market.

manx928, I believe anyone who speculates in housing this year will face a similar situation.

Bill, another sub-prime lender went out of business today. Not only are vacancies a problem (I have observed a number of vacant homes in my SF East Bay neighborhood), but foreclosures are also rising dramatically and ARM resets are going to be a terrible problem for those hoping for home prices and sales to stabilize.

And yet the home builder stocks continue to defy gravity. The JPM Securities upgrade of SPF today continues the farce.