« Cara’s Daytrader Bull Board, Mon., Feb. 26, 2007, 8:38 AM | Main | Two tough days for the brokers, Mon., Feb. 26, 2007, 8:33 PM »
February 26, 2007
Gold chart is eye candy, Mon., Feb. 26, 2007, 10:36 AM
With Reuters reporting that Alan Greenspan won’t rule out a 2007 economic recession in the US, the $USD turned weak, and gold popped another several dollars. This chart is eye candy for the readers of this blog who read my opinion on Jan 3 that Gold was going to rocket from 600 to 750 in 90 days. One month to go, I think.
12-month chart of GLD (1/10 oz, spot price):

5-day chart of GLD (1/10 oz, spot price):

What we need here is a Cara 100 Natural Resources Watch List (GICS 10 and 15 only). I’ll try to organize it.
My present thoughts are that, following the termination of the present bullish phase in Precious Metals within about 30-45 days, there ought to be a severe shake-out. The senior and intermediate producers are going to be priced very high at that point. The place to have capital invested is in the small (and riskier) ventures that have well-funded exploration and resource development programs.
With respect to the latter, I’m going to have the readers let me know what “stories” they like. Within the metals and precious metals group, I’ll be scouting for names at the PDAC 2007 (March 4-7). So, by mid-March, we ought to have a good list that we can monitor in a Cara 100 format.
Let me know if you’d like to participate. Should be fun, and hopefully profitable.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 26, 2007 10:36:38 AM | Category: Gold
Discourse
Bill, if we are going to talk about junior, speculative miners, we MUST include GLE. It should be at the top of the list. Particularly after Peter Tagliamonte's conference call last week on the Libertad mine in Nicaragua. Talk about creating shareholder value (for those w/ patience...)! I also like NTO, but they are as much copper as they are gold, so may not fit your parameters.
Be well and good heatlh!!
Posted by: elvispoc
at
February 26, 2007 1:58 PM [link]
GLD ETF with $10B in assets.
http://ca.us.biz.yahoo.com/bw/070226/20070226005746.html?.v=1
Is this all backed by physical gold??
(Kaimu? :-))
BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--State Street Global Markets LLC, an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors ("State Street") (NYSE: STT - News), and World Gold Trust Services, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the World Gold Council, today announced that assets in the streetTRACKS® Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD - News), the issuer of streetTRACKS® Gold Shares, have surpassed $10 billion.
Posted by: SiO2
at
February 26, 2007 2:56 PM [link]
At this point, I've exited a lot of the equity positions that I accumulated over the past few years. I had mostly turn around stocks and emerging market equities that had performed well for the past few years. I've put much my portfolio into gold and gold miners. My question is what happens to gold prices, GLD, and gold miner stock prices if there is a general correction in the market? I've been wondering whether gold and gold miners go down with the rest of the market the whole way, or go down part of the way and then rise, or move in the opposite direction of the market if there is a correction. What's the right strategy in terms of exposure to gold and gold miners if one anticipates a near term correction? Advice on this is appreciated.
Posted by: aleisen
at
February 26, 2007 3:21 PM [link]
Excellent question from aleisen!
What can we expect from gold stocks in a falling market (especially with a collapsing credit bubble)? I have assumed that PM stocks would first collapse with the rest of the market but then recover with the help of bullish commodity prices.
I would appreciate more informed opinion...
Posted by: northvan
at
February 26, 2007 5:12 PM [link]
To the question of what may happen to gold stocks in a falling market, I believe we must first consider several scenarios as gold stocks would behave differently.
First a mild falling market. If anything, gold stocks will not be be affected much probably going up in price as fundamentals for the sector still looks good.
Second a correction -- lets say 10% for the major indexes. In this scenario, gold stocks would suffer but will outperform the market as a correction of this size does not change the mid to long-term fundamentals. It does not change the profit earnings capability of the individual companies either. So hold on and just wait.
Third scenario a major correction, potentially turning into a bear market. I am in the camp that believes we now need a correction in the price of risky assets. The argument is that risky assets are not paying people for the inherent risk for a variety of reasons and over time as realized losses get to be above expected losses for a period of time, then investors question their loss assumptions and re-price assets. In such scenario, everything gets touched -- so will gold stocks with the aggravation that gold itself will probably sell off as well. For anyone long, I would just recommend to be trigger happy if you see things going south or get flat today.
Pick your scenario and act in accordance to it. If you are a long time believer that gold is/was cheap please do not get in love with your positions.
Good luck to everybody.
Posted by: JP
at
February 26, 2007 6:04 PM [link]
I think aleisen has a very important question and I appreciate JP's answer, but could the commander provide some further insight on this one? My portfolio is also now allocated with core gold & silver positions.
Posted by: onlineaces
at
February 26, 2007 10:07 PM [link]
Great Basin Gold Ltd (GBN) is in a very good position right now. I think this stock is cheap at current levels.
One hundred percent of the planned 55,000 ft (16,750 m) of underground drilling has now been completed. Drilling has taken place at 100 ft (30 m) spacing to fill in gaps from surface drilling within the Clementine and Gwenivere vein systems. Over the past twelve months since drilling began, Great Basin Gold has announced excellent results from the program. Currently there is a backlog, but the Company anticipates releasing additional results as they become available in the coming weeks.
I called the investors relations people and seems like they are doing very good. I will be investing over $30,000 in this stock over next 2 months.
I think over next two to three years especially in 2009 I am sure this stock would trade in $10-15 range.
Good luck
Posted by: rav
at
February 26, 2007 11:04 PM [link]
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)
David Davis - Credit Suisse - says Gold is going to grow a lot more because of a simple supply deficit.
http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/622588.htm
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=90612
Posted by: Lelik
at
February 26, 2007 1:16 PM [link]