XSR, (Canadian Satellite Radio, trading on the TSE), was up 27.11% yesterday. It gave me pause to wonder about that kind of trading opportunity, but I have to respect your philosophy, Bill, of trading prices of good companies, not just any company.

Interesting comment on CBC radio this morning, offering the perspective that if the merger is allowed, it will be allowing these players to renege on their commitment to compete, but their independent failures are most certainly self-induced and somewhat attributable to their profligate spending, (e.g. $500 million for Howard Stern). Maybe they should be forced to live or die by their original commitments.

SLW reports record earnings.

http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/articles/20070220119388.html

Re: Last post

If a pop-up appears on the SLW article, hit cancel and ignore. The article should appear.

Any thoughts on this morning's meltdown of Jetblue? Everyone I've talked to is still flying with them and they've tackled problems openly and aggressively in the press.

Bill(or anyone for debate),,,,
MU monthly rsi is approaching 30 on the RSI 7. The RSI 7 for the daily and weekly are both under 30.

In addition to these technical indicators, what else are you looking for as a catalyst to start to leg in.

tkx,

Dab

WOW, gold getting schellacked this morning. Looks like it wants to test 650 quickly,,,lol

Woosh! Yep, quite a takedown in PMs. I nibbled on some GRS and will add to AUY in the next couple days. Looks like GSS will issue more stock. SLW is one of the few stocks howing greens, even if it's only by a few pennies.

GLD - broke uptrend line today in an overbought condition. If you were not paying attention, now may be a good time to look.

dabonenose,

Why are you lol?

Are with the majority of investors/traders who missed out on the gold move the last few years.

Or, are you with the minority of traders who have been aboard this gold bull and have been dramatically beating the stock market over the last few years?

Keep watching MU, the less optimism in the commodity markets the better, LOL.

G034, how do you see the "overbought" condition? What do you look at that tells you that?

Indeed, there was a tremendous opportunity on Goldcorp this AM. A few other miners referenced here are also at what seem very attractive levels.

G034,,,,lol is tagged at the end of alot of my comments. It has no meaning other then I laugh alot out loud.

Not meant to be sarcastic in any way if that's how you took it.

tkx,

Dab

dab, I wondered if you had hit the "hookah" one too many times today, lol...I'm sorry for using you to make a point.

Si02 - just using Bill's RSI 7 over 70. I think it's best to stay on the same page as Bill regarding price oscillators.

Re GOLD being overbought: From the point of view of someone who has been on vacation for a couple of weeks (and not been looking), I'm going with overbought getting more overbought-I think that would be the contrarian play. So I think it's a buying opportunity.

Hello Bill,
I hope the time off is going well or went well if you are back. The other day there were several comments on TA regarding WGDF. Do you concur that a drop under 1.90 is "bad" or what do you say about the price and stock action?
thanks,
tom

Still don't see why Bill highlighted the WARNING and not the Bull market confirmed bit by CT as was the headline in his diary this weekend. Clearly, the bull are fine and todays Twiggs note warns of a 'further upsurge'. I like that extended or not as a long. Also CT wanted a break of 2500 on Nasadaq, well we got that today and hopefully it will hold. The Transports over 5000 and holding and all the Dow theory speak of a confirmed bull market. Why the seemingly negative spin in trying to find something wrong with equities as if hedging Stern vs Oprah is the basis for the market to start the day. Just a feeling I get visiting here, momentarily it puts a damper on things till I look again my long equities account.:)

I'd pay REAL CLOSE attention to what g034 is saying here. For the 24 months he and I have been bantering back and forth on these pages his trading "system" for Goldie and her Miners has been damn near perfect.

'Woodshed's' words have strong foundation here and find g034 is GOLD's mouthpiece especially when Bill is out of pocket.

Long GLD, GG, MU (if MU gaps down below $12.00 at the opening tomorrow morning, I'm adding to my stash ;)

Bill
I tried to post something tonight, signed in as usual, struggled with concept, spelling and composition, worried if the whole idea was stupid, and then zapped "post", only to be told that I didn't sign in.
Very frustrated, I did it again (this time with even better articulation... practice makes perfect)..."post" same result.
No need to feel threatened, Bill, give me my voice...
Joking of course, but wanted you to know...
Rig

Bill, I was composing when you posted above after MarkM. You are always with us :)

Another Cara SignPosts is occuring:
4-week T-Bill closing tomorrow for 3/22 due date is estimated @5.24% will advise of the actual investment rate when sale is over.

If anyone wants to fence with Bill and his caution about being long here perhaps they can step out of the daytrading turret, take off the rose-colored glasses and put on their readers for this:

https://www.gmo.com/America/CMSAttachmentDownload.aspx?target=JUBRxi51IICpAi5iWziVP5nNqnN4zVA9muhoKKWva816yhFR6i%2b9QV26%2fnJ9Dwje1suOPwvKWFRtB0hPi9mgTNGEpumUbWZzM3328q8WQPE%3d

That's GMO's 7 Year Asset Class Forecast for January 2007. Not what a long term investor wants to see is it? Most of the asset classes are minimal to NEGATIVE.

Now, Grantham can be a bit bearish at times but as far as risk-adjusted returns go the man and his firm kick some serious a$$. Oh, and he had his clients defensively positioned prior to 2000 and made nice returns throughout The Bear. He understands that it is not how much you make during bull markets, BUT WHAT YOU KEEP. Did I mention that he runs BILLIONS?

Loking forward to the report on WGDF. I lived in central Nevada for 15 long years and I recall their owning a crappy little heap leach operation in Goldfiled south of Tonopah. it could never get off the ground and of course that was the 80s-90s. However there is a lot of gold in that little town still.

agaunv,
Thank you for the comment. Hope all is well. Not sure about WGDF back then can you link? Their main asset now is Mesquite in California.
All the best.

Mark M
Your synopsis would help as I can't access original, not a member.
Have I already said... glad you're back?
My original efforts were to say that I was reasonably impressed by how well (some of the junior) miners (AZK, TGB, NAK) held up in face of a $13 drop in the commodity, and to querry how many others are worried about the extreme speculation in the Shanghai exchange.

Regarding Grantham's 7-year projections of -2% annual returns for U.S. equities out to 2014.....

The problem with long-term forecasts like that, assuming he's even correct, is that you have no idea the route that the market will take.

Let's say Grantham is right and the SPX is trading at 1275 or so by January 2014 (a return of -2% compounded annually for seven years.) That doesn't sound very appealing and would dictate a defensive posture or even a move to 100% cash or fixed-income.

But what if the SPX gains another 75% between now and 2010 to 2,550, then falls 50% (as it did from 1973-1974 and 2000-2002) between 2011-2014? You'd arrive at the same 1,275 figure.

It would be foolish going to cash or fixed-income if the market rallies for another 3-4 years, just because you believe it will be much lower sometime next decade.

Better to simply follow the charts and follow the market. If the U.S. indexes continue to make higher highs, it makes no sense to continue holding a bearish view. If the indexes break down and violate key supports, it makes no sense to continue holding a bullish view.

RE: GLD

Trendline break is very obvious. "Very obvious" is sometimes a great fade.

I am not making any calls on gold here. All I am saying is that if you have a position or want to have a postion - long or short - don't be asleep at the wheel right now.

RE: Stock market.

I remember Bill's melt up comment, and I also remember a comment months ago when Bill said that he was not going to buy stocks but that he thought the stock market had a good chance of rallying into the 1st Quarter of 2007. Good call Bill.

leewhee-

There are lots of ways to get to 1275, and yours is just one. I'd love to see yours happen because PEs would have to go through the roof again under that scenario and I would want to tell my grandchildren how one generation was so imbecilic as to foster TWO stock bubbles of historic proportions. That's never happened before.

Every trader thinks he can get in at the bottom and sell at the top. That makes them God if they can do it. The odds-- and history-- say they won't but will have their accounts chewed to pieces as they jump on every false rally on the way down just like 2000-2002.

But Grantham's view and approach is for long term investors not traders. I am just pointing out that Bill's view of values here is not some whack-o idea borne of a feverish brain. (Recall one nitpicking reader complained that Bill was emphasizing the "wrong headlines" in what he was reporting.) And yes, Grantham thinks cash will do well very soon. He is not a stupid man but perhaps he is wrong this time, eh? He is very patient though. Did you notice that our host is too? Hmmm.

g034- I am only reinforcing your WARNING here. Of course gold can recover above the trendline break if it so chooses. It can also become even more overbought especially if the mo-mo's and hedgies get ahold of it again like early last year. But it was overbought and the miners weren't exactly rallying with vigor so my antennae were already on fire. The trendline break just sounded the alarm. It's had a very nice run and got thrown back at strong resistance. It's a signal to PAY CLOSE ATTENTION and to honor your discipline whatever that may be. I think that is what you are saying. I concur.

Thank you to those who noted my "return from the woodshed" but I really cannot observe or post much at this time. Good luck and good trading all.

Dear Bill,

I would like to respectfully take exception to you 'take" on the radio biz. The true value of this thing, the combined company is not that their product represents a material advancement of the status quo, which it does. The real beauty of the thing is, if you have one radio company, and they do deals with most of the car manufacturers to put these babies in every car standard, then this technology becomes a very appealing way for the auto manufacturer to turn the radio-space on the dashboard from a money-loser, in most cases, to a recurring revenue producer, based on the makers' inclusion in the back-end billing.
Here in America, we have a proud history of charging people money for things that had, heretofore, been totally free. Heck, the freaking air is for sale down here. And no disrespect to my fellow countyman, but if they haven't drawn the line by now, then why now? Also, it's just a matter of time until sattelite radio is festooned with ads just like the terrestrial counterpart, but by then, it's too late. And hey...You can finance the monthlies right along with the car. Ya gotta love it.

Chris

Dear Bill,

I would like to respectfully take exception to you 'take" on the radio biz. The true value of this thing, the combined company is not that their product represents a material advancement of the status quo, which it does. The real beauty of the thing is, if you have one radio company, and they do deals with most of the car manufacturers to put these babies in every car standard, then this technology becomes a very appealing way for the auto manufacturer to turn the radio-space on the dashboard from a money-loser, in most cases, to a recurring revenue producer, based on the makers' inclusion in the back-end billing.
Here in America, we have a proud history of charging people money for things that had, heretofore, been totally free. Heck, the freaking air is for sale down here. And no disrespect to my fellow countyman, but if they haven't drawn the line by now, then why now? Also, it's just a matter of time until sattelite radio is festooned with ads just like the terrestrial counterpart, but by then, it's too late. And hey...You can finance the monthlies right along with the car. Ya gotta love it.

Chris

I found a very interesting article about how 'margin debt' keeps on helping to push the value of asset prices. The report is long with some historical comparisons and is worth reading.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6950.htm