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February 22, 2007
Cara’s Daytrader Bull Board, Thurs., Feb. 22, 2007, 9:06 AM
Wednesday’s market got an unpleasant surprise from the January US CPI, particularly from rising prices of health care and food. According to the data, January medical care prices in the US jumped +0.8 pct, their biggest increase in 16 years. Food prices jumped +0.7 pct, which is a two-year record gain.
Both the core (+0.3 pct) and headline (+0.2 pct) CPI were one-tenth above expectations. Consequently, the yield on the 10-yr Treasury Note lifted +3 bp to 4.71 pct, which pulled down Bond prices.
At the end of the day, the Dow dropped -48 points, while Nasdaq added +5.4.
The past couple days has been a downer. Now we probably know why. We The People (somewhat delayed from Friends & Family) are now being told that the Fed will not reduce the Fed rate this year. Yes, I think the concern is about rising inflation, and please tell me how many (hundred) times I’ve pointed readers in that direction.
And please recall that I have stated that the Fed will not drop the Fed Rate unless and until (and to be timed with screams from) the financial services industry that the Bear phase of the stock market is wiping out collateral, with the result that loans to (Friends & Family and others) will have to be yanked.
But yesterday, for the same reason that the CPI data pushed down bonds and rattled the stock market, commodity price sensitive groups like precious metals (XAU +3.7 pct), Coal (+3.7 pct), and Steel (+2.8 pct) were very strong. Steel industry prices continue to increase for economic demand reasons. I strongly suspect the precious metals are rallying mostly because of the declining value of the US Dollar, and paper money in general.
Just for the scorecard, it was early January when I boldly opined that Gold was ready to move from 600 to 750 in 90 days. Well, 50 days later, we are about 53 pct the way there, and I know from experience with price spikes that the late cycle move is typically the most extreme.
Here is a lovely picture of a short squeeze as too many hedgies have been caught short the precious metals. This picture will repeat over the next month as hedge fund managers afflicted with a mariner condition known as ‘in extremis’ will be found dead in the water.
For the same basic reason I made that January call on gold, I opined that stocks in general would have a “melt-up”. But I also alerted that I expect these moves will finally bring an end to the extended 2002-2006 stock market cycle.
Speculation will likely drive energy prices higher across the board. With gasoline futures up +5.5 ct/gal yesterday, the Refiners (FTO, HOC and VLO) added about +3 pct. These are the kind of moves, I feel, that offer traders an opportunity to sell into strength. For example, it looks to me like Holly Corp (HOC) has run into a triple top situation. Let’s watch.
Shares of Hewlett Packard (HPQ -4.7 pct) pulled back sharply after the quarterly operating results looked good, but management issued unsatisfactory guidance.
Apple (AAPL +3.8 pct) was a Nasdaq 100 leader after SoundScan reported its digital music sales rose 60 pct Y/Y. Interesting cover story. Today we discover that Apple and (Cara 100) Cisco (CSCO) have agreed to Apple’s use of the iPhone trademark. Apple plans to sell about 10 million iPhones in the next year. Tell me insiders were not trading on that knowledge. (LOL)
(Cara 100) Google (GOOG) is apparently ready to invade Microsoft (MSFT) turf. Only good can come from this. I look forward to the first legitimate challenge to the Microsoft monopoly.
Ex-Cara 100 Toll Bros (TOLL) has (surprise, surprise!) taken larger than expected losses, including huge write-off’s of land inventory. Apparently (I josh!), the housing industry in the US is not likely to resolve its issues quite yet. I suspect that if, as and when the wealth effect from the stock and bond market becomes historical fact, and Mom & Pop find that they have to dip further into personal savings to maintain the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed, they will recoil from plans to buy a new home or car.
And should the US Treasury Yield Curve remain in a negative slope at the time that the Fed Rate raises (yes raises!), I suspect pockets of economic difficulty in the US will become more widespread, particularly in the commercial lending market, and not just the sub-prime loans aspect.
Exchange Traded Funds are proliferating because (i) for a smaller administrative cost, ETF’s offer the risk diversification strategies of mutual funds (ii) the growing sophistication of independent traders is such they many want to make their own decisions and prefer not to invest with fund managers who have not proven (as an industry) to outperform the indexes, and (iii) (something few people have yet considered) use of ETF’s by quant-oriented hedge funds is being promoted by the sell-side.
So, as I see it, it makes sense for the independent trader to use ETF’s and also the sell-side have co-opted the field for reasons that have little to do with their interest in the retail investor.
Yesterday, John Spence of MarketWatch did a good write-up of what I consider to be lousy investment advice from Morgan Stanley. Maybe on the weekend, in the WIR, I’ll do my own ETF Report. In one respect, I very much like the work of Morgan Stanley to create a comprehensive report on ETF’s (I didn’t tell you they requested I delete the link on my blog and I complied), but there is no reason to mix the ETF database with their sell-side research (ie, marketing)strategies.
Here’s my biggest beef: For ETF’s, Morgan Stanley advises 24 pct allocation to bonds… “For the fixed-income portion of the portfolio”.
“Fixed income? What a joke. Even the Bond King (PIMCO’s Bill Gross) today advises to sell or avoid bonds. As Mr. Gross is the biggest trader of bonds in the world, people are going to listen.
Bonds, like stocks, are prices, and we trade prices. Right?
Now, if you truly are “investing” in the Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) (21 pct is the Morgan Stanley recommendaion!), then, are you prepared to hold corporate bonds yielding just +5.4 pct for a weighted average maturity of 7.2 years?
As I say, this is a joke, right?
So with 24 pct of your portfolio in Bonds pulling down +5.4 pct or less for the next seven years or more, that means, if you have any hope of making total +15 pct average returns, you then have to earn +20 pct annually on the other 76 pct of your holdings.
Why don’t the Morgan Stanley strategists explain that to their retail investment advisors, who in turn can explain it the clients.
In fact, why don’t they show the public how the Morgan Stanley-managed broad-based equity mutual funds have netted +20 pct annual returns for the past 7.2 years? Don’t hold your breath waiting.
I suppose you could think bonds are going to soar (whereupon you could sell sometime in the interim for a capital gain), but if Bonds are soaring, then the economy must be somewhere between cool and cold on the temperature scale in which case the average stock is not going to returning an annual +20 pct return.
What really bothers me about recommending Bonds for “fixed income” is that it is too often a sell-side ploy. Morgan Stanley, in this case, has a Bond department to support and their ETF Report is nothing but a Sales Report, hence Bonds get a 24 pct asset allocation.
The public gets more than its fill of this stuff. What about those cutesy so-called “investment” professionals who spew their wisdom to TV audiences. Of course they know that a large part of that audience is interested in fixed income, so, to a mass-market TV audience, they must think words like “60:40 stocks to bonds” actually sound good.
I think people who promote themselves on TV as being independent and objective, but who actually have a vested sales interest, are pathetic. If I was the producer, I’d be known as Dr. Hook unless the Talking Head provided full disclosure of their being on TV (not because they happen to be an expert trader or investor, but..) because they are doing a marketing job.
For the uninitiated, the game of most of the TV “personalities” from Wall Street is not Seeking Alpha in capital markets, but all about Seeking AUM (Assets Under Management) from the TV audience. At least too many of them are.
Selling fixed income to long-term investors is a complex subject. It’s a subject I discussed yesterday with my associates. I explained how we needed to establish a world-class fixed income fund here in The Bahamas which has no income tax act. For such a Fund, that is the equivalent of the Canadian Business Trust that was formerly blessed with zero corporate tax. In my case, it would be a trading house that would dividend 100 pct of net proceeds quarterly.
Yes, I’m considering doing it, but I have no specific plans.
Here in Nassau yesterday, Teekay LNG Partners (TGP) filed a 4Q loss, but increased its quarterly distribution. I'll have to pay them a visit one of these days and let them know about my including them in the Cara 100.
I see from yesterday’s Cara 100 losers table, there must be problems with stocks in Russia. The two big losers today are the Russian Telecom service providers, Vimpel (VIP) and Mobile TeleSystems (MBT). If anybody wants to look into the reasons, please make a comment below. Thanks.


You can see on these charts where there had been an Accumulation Zone (AZ) (ie, where RSI-7 had dropped to or below 30) at very attractive prices last year. These stocks are now over-bought. The gains have been impressive.
Feb 18 was Chinese New Year. This is the Year of the Pig. My message is don’t be greedy or you’ll end up in the slaughterhouse. It’s time to roll out of extremely over-bought stocks. At least there is the need to be watching your portfolio closely at this point.
Remember, first we find quality companies (which I have done with the Cara 100) and then we trade the prices of the stocks. We add to positions when we can buy low (ie, when the technical indicators show an over-sold condition for the stock), and we sell a bit at times these stocks are shown to be over-bought. In the course of that process we are reducing (or trying anyway) to reduce our cost base. Then over a period of many years we are trying to build incoming cash flow from dividends on a reducing cost base of the securities in the portfolio.
This is not magic; it’s just my recommended way to wealth management.
Interactive links
The Nikkei 225 of Japan was up +1.1 pct today.
Right across the board in Europe there are green arrows so far today (9:00am ET), so it looks positive for North American stocks today.
I think the early morning bump in the US Dollar is a set up for falling prices today. Just a guess.

U.S. Treasury Bond Mar. contract
Here are the current Cara 100 RSI-7 values, sorted by highest and lowest, first by Daily values and then by Monthly, prepared by “David”.


Interactive link to Tuesday unsmoothed Daily RSI-7 >70 in Cara 100 (12 of 26)
Interactive link to Tuesday unsmoothed Daily RSI-7 <30 in Cara 100 (6)
On Tuesday I wrote: “The short-term market is again over-bought with 33 Cara 100’s trading with RSI-7 > 70 and only two (MU and CVX) trading with RSI-7 < 30.” Yesterday, the market let off a little steam. At the lose, there were 26 Cara 100’s trading with RSI-7 > 70 and six with RSI-7 < 30.
Here is a list of Cara 100’s trading at what I consider to be extreme RSI values:
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Yesterday’s portfolio movers from the Cara Watch List:
Here are the top gainers from Wednesday from the Cara 100.

Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List gainers
Here are the top losers from Wednesday from the Cara 100.

Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List losers
There were five 12-month highs and 1 low (MU) in the Cara 100 yesterday.

It’s always relaxing here in Nassau, but it’s almost time to return home by WestJet. I’m almost afraid to get on the scale. I believe Kalik, like Guinness, and fried conch, like… well like most anything fried, has some calories. Do you think?
I found it kinda fun to do my report today in the hotel restaurant -- my first meeting is 11:00am ET -- while the tourists were excitedly preparing for their day.
Little did they know I put my watch on upside down this morning because I probably drank as many Kaliks last evening as any of them.
So now the time looks to me to be 3:35. Gee, did I miss my flight? (LOL)
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 22, 2007 09:06:17 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board
Discourse
Russian Telecoms:
VIP and MBT exactly reversed their previous day's gains.
Russian market appears to be not unlike the Canadian market in it's tendency to move with oil. Didn't notice any particular news about telecoms.
FINAM Investment Company, (Russian full service brokerage), has sell recommendations on VIP and MBT. The telecoms have outpaced the RTS of late, and they're calling for a pullback on these two and others, (quite a significant one, actually).
Posted by: manx928
at
February 22, 2007 10:24 AM [link]
Bill....nice to see discussion of etfs, my core interest. I'm in the process of messing around with groups of etfs and using relative strength as the buy-sell signal. Curious if you could offer a comment on my plan of action. I'm trying to decide if it's better to have a small or large data base for relative strength selection. To get into some of the details... Alpha is the metric and rotation criteria are trailing loss and group ranking. I can optimize alpha period, percent loss, and cutoff in the group. For coverage of industry sectors I thought that I would choose only one etf per sector...about thirteen identified sectors. Ea selected representative etf would have oldest inception date and highest volume. Then whenever I got a buy signal I would drill down into an expanded group of etfs for that sector. The other option is to just have one large data base of all sectors and mutliple etfs within sectors,.. no drill down. As these etfs come pouring out, for mid term traders as myself, group construction of etfs will become quite important. I'd be interested in how you group your etfs and how you choose to fill each group. p.s. love the discussion of bonds, my wife is harping on me to get more fixed income..all that is another topic.
Posted by: jasper
at
February 22, 2007 10:32 AM [link]
WFMI
I offer up my humility to Bill. A couple months ago, I'd questioned a poster's proposition to get into WFMI. At that time, I had nothing against the stock, but I couldn't see any reason for WFMI's slide to stop and I was waiting a little longer. Bill argued that it was by definition in the Accumulation Zone. It did stop sliding shortly thereafter, bumping up in fits and starts, and this morning it's jumped 10% on news of it being an acquisitor. The lesson: once the trigger for a stock to move out of the Accumulation Zone becomes apparent, it can happen pretty swiftly. Arguably, the strategy is to buy while in the zone and then wait for the trigger to get pulled. I'm feeling like it's too late now. Oh well, perhaps the lesson is worth more than the money I "could have" made.
Posted by: manx928
at
February 22, 2007 10:39 AM [link]
Taking profits with big move today in WFMI. It may go higher, but looking at the fundamentals and considering the market outlook down the road, it's time.
Sign of the times: Hedge fund for sale on E-bay!
Posted by: Seamus
at
February 22, 2007 10:42 AM [link]
IYR--no shortable shares through Fidelity. This has happened on a couple of other occasions.
Posted by: Leisa
at
February 22, 2007 11:06 AM [link]
RE: WFMI
If you recall, almost a month ago, this board was filled with banter regarding a rumor about KRY. At the time I mentioned that this rumor was sidetracking some of you and you were missing out on what I called "an actionable trade", or something like that, in WFMI. The "trade" goes something like this:
Look for a Cara 100 company without any recent, fundamental issues that will cause it to be dropped from the Cara 100. Not news stories getting people to sell out on weakness, but REAL fundamental issues.
When the company is oversold in Bill's RSI methods, look for the stock to stop falling.
When the stock stops falling - lets say the downtrend line is finally broken to the upside (would be nice to have increasing volume at this time) you consider purchasing the stock.
If you did this (I did, btw), you would have almost bought the bottom of the move. Almost is close enough.
That's all there is to it.
Pull up a chart and you can see that my post was timely and once again the method worked like a champ. Remember, Bill was sick and he didn't make this call on WFMI. A READER did and you can too! This is what Bill is trying to teach on this site - how to fish.
I think what Bill is hoping for is a community of "fishers" who make calls like the one that I made on WFMI. Who needs humongous bank and brokerage when we could have a "Cara Fishing Club"?
Disclosure: Long WFMI
Posted by: g034
at
February 22, 2007 11:26 AM [link]
I purchased WFMI back on Feb 1st. It was in the zone and it appeared to me that the slide was over when the weekly close closed higher than the prior weekly close. I did not buy enough as I thought I would purchase more if the price went down. It never did. I am sitting on a 13.5% gain as we speak. I have no plans to sell at this point.
I am watching MU right now. Someone had mentioned that below 12 looked good but the Monthly RSI is still above 30. I do not think a trend reversal will occur this week unless it goes above 12.70. Next week I would look at purchasing a litte MU if goes above 12.31 (this weeks current high). I will wait until the Monthly RSI goes below 30 before making a full commitment.
Posted by: holdenll
at
February 22, 2007 11:27 AM [link]
RE: WFMI
Just wondering what would have happend to the stock without the purchase of Wild Oats.
The results alone were not impressive.
RE: KRY
KRY has not participated in the GLD move recently.
With in next the few days, news is likey to come out about the drilling results and that will be a catalyst for move over 3.5
Posted by: JogyP
at
February 22, 2007 11:58 AM [link]
Quote
Remember, first we find quality companies (which I have done with the Cara 100) and then we trade the prices of the stocks. We add to positions when we can buy low (ie, when the technical indicators show an over-sold condition for the stock), and we sell a bit at times these stocks are shown to be over-bought. In the course of that process we are reducing (or trying anyway) to reduce our cost base. Then over a period of many years we are trying to build incoming cash flow from dividends on a reducing cost base of the securities in the portfolio.
Unquote
I am a slow learner - but eventually after reading your Blog for months, I started committing more and more of my invested funds last year to this methodology of yours and I have been making money and feeling good at the same time. As companies are good quality and bought when they are on their low prices, implementing another stock market principle of 'Buy Low, Sell High' looks no-brainer now! Thanks Bill - and other knowledgeable readers who constantly share their wisdom on this Board.
Posted by: Rick
at
February 22, 2007 12:31 PM [link]
I realized that I should probably quote what I wrote above and in the process of searching, I came upon a few more quality quotes:
"WFMI broke one downtrend line today.
Posted by: g034 at January 30, 2007 10:20 AM"
"add to above post long wfmi
Posted by: g034 at January 30, 2007 10:25 AM"
"Re gold: the neckline of the inverted h&s is forming price support. If this continues, the target of this pattern is over the old high of $730.
Posted by: g034 at January 31, 2007 10:40 AM"
"There is still time to get into precious metal stocks.
Posted by: Bill Cara at January 31, 2007 3:31 PM"
I especially liked this one from January 11, 2007:
"GDX found support at it's 38.2% retrace from oct lows. Any rally will break it's power downtrend line to the upside.
GLD is chopping to the upside clearly seen in the 60 min. and consolidating for the last few days.
There are a number of quality gold shares with distinct downtrend lines that are currently oversold and when the breakout to the upside occurs it will be quite obvious. I suspect that a lot of the scared gold share holders are out and that a good buying opportunity awaits for those of us who sold on the uptrend line breaks...
Posted by: g034 at January 11, 2007 9:23 AM" -That was using the same techniques that I have written about today and many times before. That was THE breakout day for GDX and one day before the gold breakout.
Plan the trade and trade the plan...
Posted by: g034
at
February 22, 2007 12:36 PM [link]
Leisa --
Dave Fry on his (paid) site etfdigest.com has been railing for a few years against the unavailability of ETF shares for shorting by individual investors.
Of course, when institutions want to short an ETF, the issuers and brokers are more than happy to oblige.
Fry was also trying to lead a campaign to force issuers and brokers to live up to the claims that ETF's are shortable.
Maybe if "we the people" - from CaraLand - join forces with Fry, we could generate a zillion emails to the biggest discount brokers ...
Posted by: Jock
at
February 22, 2007 12:38 PM [link]
FWIW - Regarding the ETF discussion, it's my opinion that there is a group of long term investors who can't (or simply don't want to) watch the market daily. I think these more hands-off investors with longer time horizons would be greatly helped if there was a brief discussion in the half year "in reviews" (or quarterly) that focusses on tweaks to the mom & pop ETF portfolio.
Posted by: rusticuf
at
February 22, 2007 12:44 PM [link]
RE: E-Trade offers direct access to six foreign markets
This news is a day or two old but I wanted to post it for Bill in case he didn't see it. This is a big deal for the retail investor and also E-TRADE (a Cara 100 company). I expect that Interactive Brokers (the trend setter) will lose retail business as the E-TRADE platform is easier to use and provides access to many more products under one account.
ETRADE (ETFC) has been range bound for sometime. It would be great to hear your thoughts regarding an accumulation zone for ETRADE.
Posted by: cb
at
February 22, 2007 12:54 PM [link]
Jock
Thanks for the link. I'll take a look. I've seen shortable shares on Fidelity for IYR before. I suspect that there are a few people betting against this asset class which has remained incredibly strong. As a whole, the asset class seems expensive and that all of the interest rate cut speculation is already in the price. But any of those musings fall into the "what do I know category?".
Posted by: Leisa
at
February 22, 2007 1:18 PM [link]
HOC was also mentioned this morning as a potential breakout on this blog http://tradenote.blogspot.com/
So, breakout or triple top ? The line is thin....
Andre
Posted by: AndreBog
at
February 22, 2007 1:34 PM [link]
MU
I don't know if anyone follows the trend line work of Alan Andrews, however if you draw a line from the high's of April 5, 2004 through the midpoint(approx.) of the last runup(4/18/05-9/7/06), and run the trend line out to edge of the chart, it will point to the 11.75 area as a target.
The monthly RSI 7 is very close to 30 and I believe we are very close to the bottom IMHO.
For you fibbers, that would be a 76% retrace.
tkx,
Dab
Posted by: dabonenose
at
February 22, 2007 2:08 PM [link]
MU
I drew the above trend lines using the 3 yr Daily chart.
tkx
Posted by: dabonenose
at
February 22, 2007 2:13 PM [link]
Huge battle raging on the gold chart right now to keep spot under 680. Commercial shorts must be in big trouble if it crosses that line.
Best....
Posted by: MarkM
at
February 22, 2007 3:06 PM [link]
G034 or any others with TA knowledge, is there any technical resistance at 680? Where is the next resistance according to the charts? Thx.
Posted by: SiO2
at
February 22, 2007 3:52 PM [link]
SiO2 - I don't have my notes in front of me, but maybe MarkM remembers this - before the trip to $730, I calculated $680 as a target with the calculation on this site. You can see how we paused around $680 on the way up, and on the way down. It's an important price point. If I have time, I will redo my work, but in the meantime, suffice it to say that $680 is important. Maybe it was voodoo ;-)
jeremy - yeah, I have thoughts on SLW. It will be a lot higher in a few years...
Posted by: g034
at
February 22, 2007 4:23 PM [link]
MU
oversold
downtrend line provided resistance today
may be a buy if that trendline is broken
next stop $11.50 retrace if initial buy is wrong
just my $0.02
Posted by: g034
at
February 22, 2007 4:38 PM [link]
I guess I'm not the only member of the Cara Fishing Club to take the bait. I bought WFMI on January 29th @ 43.31. Thanks Bill, g034. I'm not selling into this rally like Seamus, but continuing to move a close stop up almost daily. I like the market to do my selling for me.
The recent action in the junior miners has been terrific. The HL/GBN deal coupled with the move in AU has really juiced all small miners that have proven reserves.
We sure live in interesting times.
Fish are jumping...and the cotton etc.
Posted by: Rigdon
at
February 22, 2007 4:38 PM [link]
Bill et al,
Thanks for the steadying hand on WFMI during the past several months. Would it be too simplistic to think that the bounce is due to today's enormous spike in the food price report? Holding WFMI from this point may be a good situation since we have good management, a good business model and a time where staples may be a safe haven from rough waters ahead.
Posted by: TerryC
at
February 22, 2007 10:37 PM [link]
g034-
I have been in WFMI for the ride also. Got in a shade under 44. Waited, waited, waited for a drop to 42 to double up. Never came. This is a lot better to me than that other stock whose name I have forbidden myself from uttering. Like TerryC I will let a mechanical stop take me out.
SiO2- I recall your calculation from month's past yet but haven't searched for it. I saw a recent article confirming my view on COT positions but since I am in the middle of something I neglected to file it away! (Was it an analysis by Clive Maund? I usually don't read his stuff though.)
I still believe that a rough patch is directly ahead for the equity markets and have a feeler short out as my ante. It is gyrating from red to green to red again. Wait til the Spring housing sales figures start showing up. With the incresed inventory there will be increased downward pressure on prices. This is what i have been pointing to for months as I believe has Leisa.
Good luck and good trading the gold bull.
Posted by: MarkM
at
February 23, 2007 6:35 AM [link]
For purposes of the trading discussion, once WFMI was up over 10% for the day and in a target area in the 50's I had previously identified, I set a trailing stop. During the volitility of the day the stop hit.
I am comfortable with this as I anticipate a step back in overall equity prices. Also, WFMI is a great grocer, but it faces increased competition and challenging consolidation with the merger. A noted positive is the institutional money flowing in yesterday.
Good call G034.
Good luck to all!
Posted by: Seamus
at
February 23, 2007 10:07 AM [link]
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hello from germany,
you mentioned yesterday the takeover from vulcan/florida rock with a 46% premium
One of the Nation’s largest producers of aggregates.
Major supplier of Ready Mix Concrete in Florida, south Georgia, Virginia and Maryland (Ranked #1 or #2 in most markets).
Major Florida cement supplier through Newberry Cement Plant and two import terminals.
65% of sales are in florida!
with 45% tied directly to residential building!
buying a company that is mainly dependent on the florida real estate market! with a 46% premium would lead me to the conclusion to sell vulcan shares.
but surprise, surprise... vulcan shares spiked almost 15%! to an all time high!
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/02/speechlesswatch-this-stock-move.html
Posted by: jmf
at
February 22, 2007 10:22 AM [link]