good idea Bill, getting warmed up is good for the health!!

TGIF and have a great long weekend, you all!

YM ES in the nr7 setup(narrowest range in 7 sessions) the rule in that is go with a break of 1st hour range for a 'trend day'

HUI .618 fib of 270-402 above at 351.6, below those previous peaks in the 342's for support, then the 50%=336

gold and silver downtick on a negative ppi

08:30 ET PPI -0.6% vs -0.6% consensus :

08:30 ET Core PPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% consensus :

08:30 ET Housing Starts 1408K vs 1600K consensus :

Reuters...Friday morning (today) at 7:42 am est has an news feed that reads.....BBVA builds U.S. muscle with $9.6 bln Compass buy...... http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSL1689407220070216 Thats just fine with me. What gripes me is the news feeds to retail investors is "old news." That said, you pull up a 5 day chart for compass http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CBSS&t=5d you will see the news feed is way too late, the information reached the little retail investors (me) exactly a day late. CBSS started the run up yesterday in premarket trading. This morning in premarket they are asking 71.19...almost exactly the tendered price for compass of 71.80. There is a 16% premium investment opportunity the retail investor was not privy too. Love the game, but the odds are still with the inside players!

Just a small rant..... maybe a bottle of Budweiser (or what ever the future name is going to be)for laughs-and-giggles will help? Decisions...decisions...decisions!

Deacon - was about to post those housing numbers... here is the MW byline:

Housing starts plunge 14%
Data show no bottom for U.S. housing market. Building permits down 28% from January 2006.

I'm pretty sure yesterday the bylines were along the lines of - Housing is recovering...

Oh what a difference 24 hours can make!

Here is a little more on the January housing starts..... http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1510790320070216
I'll shut up for the rest of the day.

Gold miner EGO hit a 52 week high with it’s highest volume since last March

USU bounced off the 20 day SMA for the third straight day, but volume lower

Options expiration today

Market speculator also has a NR7 setup on RATE

http://www.themarketspeculator.blogspot.com/

Euro maintaining level above 1.31 and looks like it can go higher.

Fwiw, not only was the TIC number bad yesterday, but did you notice the outflows? Everbank’s Daily Pfennig reports “Domestic investors increased their buying of long-term overseas securities from $37 Billion to a record $46 Billion. This is a classic illustration of a lack of funding.”

That points to a good trend for the PMs. Long PMs.

Number2son should like those housing start numbers.

Hey Seamus, EGO popped up on one of my screens, too.

The housing starts numbers are a good sign for the housing market, although it has to make you wonder about a housing led recession.

The good news is that it indicates the builders are serious about working off their excess inventory. Yet the real problem for builders is that January sales were the lowest in over a decade. The fact that this came on the heels of all the hype about "dancing on the bottom", however, was shrugged off by the market as HB stocks continue to trade higher than sense dictates.

Just like they shrugged off the collapse of the sub-prime lending market.

But so long as companies like KB Home can report that they are generating cash -- even if it means gross margins are under 10% BEFORE they take impairments and option charges, and even if they increase their short and long-term debt by over 20% -- well, then I guess the prospect of further weakness in the housing market is a-o-k with investors.

Sigh.

Yes, I'm short KBH.

10:30[BRIEFING.COM] "Indices continue to languish near morning lows as investors use a sharper than expected decline in consumer sentiment as another excuse to sideline the bulls. At the top of the hour, a survey compiled by the University of Michigan checking in at a lower than expected preliminary read of 93.3 (consensus 96.5) has shown that sentiment eroded this month.
NYSE Adv/Dec 934/1952... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 960/1688."

a/d's are fairly bad, option ex can burst the trend day stuff, though

i see alot of data on western goldfields here
http://hommelforum.com/showthread.php?t=8

to me it's stalled cause no gold poured til 2008, and alot of dilution with the new investors

i'm scottish also, so i chase no gold stock, i would rather look for a buy at 1.25-1.50 zone for the bull flag goal, say 3.50

pdac usually is a top for juniors, if not the whole gold market, so let's see if any of the juniors run the next 2 weeks

Pan Am silver proven and probable reserves up 20%, 35.4 million ounces added

PAAS is fairly bad supply news for silver

china closed all next week for new year's holiday week, so no copper buying news or anything from there

Adding fuel to the fire. Market sentiment reports monthly short interest at extremely high levels.

http://headlinecharts.blog.com/2007/02/15/

yep, short interest is one reason why we ran up this week, after a perfect 3 days down a week ago thurs-fri, and last monday(to let them buy their cheap calls)

Tim, goldbugs ran on and on all last year about the housing bubble burst, and probably is a factor in the flight to safety of gold, but the stock market just goes on and on

in 2000 the smart money sold stocks and bought real estate, so if they sell their real estate now will they buy stocks(it's likely and supportive to market)

with housing numbers like today, the stock market loves it, cause boom boom will not raise rates on this kind of data(all is well if no rate hikes)

the brokers(XBD.x) have mortgages too, so watch to see if they break, they held perfectly at a previous swing high near 248

credit card issuers data has been fine lately, so can watch for a deterioration there

ALOHA !!

To expand Bill's comments on the "Goldilocks Economy" that Ben Bernanke keeps praising I offer this BLAST FROM THE PAST!! Some day soon we can add George, Alan, Hank and Ben to the list.

Seems the "Goldilocks Economy" was alive and well eighty years ago ... One reason why owning GLD and SLV at the wrong time is shown at the bottom.

READ ON:
1927--"We will not have any more crashes in our time"---John Maynard Keynes

Jan.12 1928--"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fools paradise,and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future"--
E.Simmons--president New York Stock Exchange

Dec.4 1928--"No congress of the U.S. ever assembled,on surveying the state of the Union,has met with a more pleasing prospect then that which appears at the present time.
In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment--and the highest record of years of prosperity.In the foreign field there is peace,the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding"--Pres.Calvin Coolidge-

Sept.5 1929--"There may be a recession in stock prices,but not anything in the nature of a crash"---Irving Fisher PHD. Professor of economics-Yale University

Oct.24 1929--"This crash is not going to have much effect on business"--Aurther Reynolds-Chairman Continental Illinois Bank

Oct.25 1929--(Black Friday) "There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday--I have no fear of another comparable decline"--A.W. Loasby--Pres. of the equitable Trust Co.

Nov.1929--"The end of the decline of the stock market will not be long,only a few more days at the most"--Irving Fisher

Dec.1929--"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism--I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring,and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress"--
Andrew W Mellon--U.S.Secretary of the Treasury

May 1930--"While the crash only took place six months ago,I am convinced we have now passed through the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover.There has been no significant bank or industrial failure.That danger too is safely behind us"--President Herbert Hoover

March 9 1933--Executive Order Of The President Of The United States--
"By virtue of the authority vested in me by---The Act of March 9 1933--In which Congress declared a serious emergency exists,I as President do declare that the national emergency still exists;that the continued private hoarding of gold and silver by subjects of the United States poses a grave threat to peace,equal justice,and the well being of the United States;and that appropriate measures must be taken immediately to protect the interests of our people--

All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed,pending action in the due course of law.All sales or purchases of such gold and silver within the borders of the United States and its territories and all foreign exchange transactions or movements of such metals across the border are hereby prohibited--

Your possession of these proscribed metals and/or your maintanence of a safe deposit box to store them is known by the government from bank and insurance records.Therefore be advised that your vault box must remain sealed,and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the "Internal Revenue Service".END

HES looks like it could be putting in a double top.

short HES.

crude oil booms over 59, and gold and silver follow into green now on access ZG +1.5 ZI +2.5

"...Al Qaeda threat on US oil infrastructure. The Homeland Security Office is saying that the threat is not specific."

aloha go_away_a !
you are definitely a board killer...
deac paraphrase version of aloha "oh yeah i bought gold and gold stocks at the 2000 low, and here's 2 more i bought a month ago for 20% gains"

aloha, tell us a trade when it happens, and you can build some credibility...

for any new investor or newbie trader, if anybody claims big profits on trades that happened way before, put them on ignore

Deacon -

You obviously haven't been reading Aloha for long. He has been posting here much longer than you have, including giving us some names of promising juniors for further research. Ignoring his comments is very foolish in my opinion.

To frequent posters: I'm new to this site. I'm trying to weigh if I'm a fit here...I have to avoid stim overload. Perhaps, someone will clue me in. Bill's maverick attitude...he does not run with the herd..is refreshing. I'm not a "trader" but look for guidance about longish (4months to one yr) trends. Can someone characterize...risk making a generalization...about this board/website? It seems very trader oriented, or is that just the group that posts??? Thanks.

Dear Bill and Everyone,

After cashing out near yesterday's high, I am back in CUP at 4.17

Have a beeeeeeautiful weekend !!!

Dear Bill and Everyone,

After cashing out near yesterday's highs, I am back in CUP at 4.17. Turns out, IVAN had a little gas left in the tank, too.

Have a beeeeeuuuutiful weekend!

Chris

Deacon,
A couple of days ago you posted something to the effect that it would not be a good idea to short the index's(qqqq, spx) due to low vol.

Your assessment was right on, but what I would like to understand is that when you see an index or stock increasing on low vol, I would tend to think that would be a bearish sign ? Please give me your insight on this as my thinking was way off, especially on qqqq.

ALOHA !!

Who is "ALOHA" ?

Jasper--I don't fit in here either as I'm not a trader. But these folks are generous with their knowledge.

Things that I find helpful are (1) Bill's WIR which is a great 50K view to help you with making decisions on a more granular level; (2) contributions by other posters who have various insights (I'm just combing for wine selections) on economic, market data.

So welcome and good for you for jumping in and posting.

Sorry, meant Kaimu, not Aloha. Your ALOHA!!'s are infectious.

Deacon, my assessment of Kaimu is quite the opposite of yours. He has been a charming, "golden" presence on this board. Moab is so right in characterizing Kaimu's "Aloha's" as infectious. May we all be infected with that happy contagion.

In the past few months I've notice that we seem to have a few quick verbal draws when someone's ire is raised. Shooting first and asking questions later (though some may not even have enough decency to even ask a question after shooting) is the true board killer in my opinion.

It's terrific to have new voices, but it's also important to engage in civil discourse (well, it is important to ME anyway)--The hallmark of our being perceived as gentlemen/women, scholars and wits.

I believe this misunderstanding will all blow over by next week.
Deacon you bing up a good point about people posting if they do own the equity they just posted about. It's only common courtesy to let people know if you are short or long the company so they can see for themselves if there is a hidden agenda behind a post.

Party at Leisa's house tonight....everyone is invited!

ALOHA !!

jasper ... Yes, there are a few of us long term "investors" on this board. It does seem like "traders" post more frequently since they need reassurances on a daily basis. Not my style!

I do use charts and such mainly for entrance and exit points, but my goal is to be long. I will mention two companies I am still long on, although I have taken profits on them. One being Northern Dynasty(NAK) and the other SXR Uranium One(SXRFF US OTC). Bill just recently mentioned SXR Uranium One and their latest merger, but don't forget the spin-off of AFlease Gold. Yes I did begin to buy them over two years ago. NAK at $0.65USD and SXRFF at $0.25USD back when it traded under the symbol AFlease AFLUY(US OTC). One of the benefits of holding long is that AFLUY did a reverse split and then a forward split on the merger which doubled my shares on a 20:1 ADR ratio to a 40:1 equivalent. It was my talk with management of AFLease that convinced me not to sell after they announced the reverse split. Then I also spoke to them of the US ADR issue we had when they merged. US ADR holders were the ones who got a 2:1 split, the best merger split ratio. Today the former AFLUY trades for over $14.00USD per share. Do the math ...

Yesterday I just gave out one of my long term holds Continuum(CNU.V CUUEF US OTC). In fact I bought more today. I add on dips only. I do not need a technical chart analysis to see that a drop from $0.57USD to $0.47 is a buying opportunity on a long term hold.

About 90% of the companies I own I can call management and talk to either the CEO or the CFO directly. They know me by name and as a shareholder I advise them of ways I believe they can improve their share price. "Traders" tend to not have such a relationship. That is part of my due diligence strategy prior to buying. That is because the long term pays off bigger than the short term for me. It also helps to have a background in Geology ... It makes talking to CEOs easier. Another BIG help is living in Hawaii. Strange but it is a major ice-breaker in cold calls!

One of my other long term holds that I mentioned here last year was ECU Silver(ECU.V ECUXF US OTC). Once again I have held this company since 2005 when I started buying at $0.25USD. It now trades above $2.65USD. I also bought more today at $2.63USD. Hey, any idiot can see that $2.63USD is cheaper than $3.00USD where it was trading in Dec 2006. I buy the dips. I have to say that I get in BIG on my first initial buy. I first buy at least 50,000 shares, usually 100,000, which sometimes takes more than a day.

Even though I have never even set foot in Canada my entire life I have my network of "people" I know on Howe Street in Vancouver. To me Canada is the "Silicone Valley" of mining. I can call any time and "talk story", as they say here in Hawaii ... That network covers about twelve to fourteen highly prospective juniors I follow, most out of the limelight right now but many are either already working a JV with a major or are about to.

To me ECU Silver is a "no brainer" ... When management tells me they are planning to run over five drills at one time on one deposit that's a signal. No one mans-up on a whim! Already producing, already 100mil ounces plus, and more JVs to come and funds and hedgies nibbling now. I know one hedge fund manager that has a fairly large position in ECU Silver now. Not all hedge funds are weak hands, this one kept ECU Silver even when she announced ahe was selling off all but 5% of her metal holdings in a Barrons interview last June. She passed on a 1000% profit to wait for a "better" return. That tells me a lot ... Those are the details the "traders" will never catch! You can only know that by talking to the major shareholders and management.

BIG deposits attact BIG majors and that is what I key on, since it does not matter if gold is at $1000USD an ounce or back at $300USD the majors are always interested in BIG ... safe(geopolitical)deposits. They all need to build reserves, especially now.

One of my holdings has just announced a 2:1 stock split and spin-off while Teck Cominco has told them they consider their property their #1 North American project.

Some people on this board "trade" the way our elected leaders think ... short, quick and in the dark. I use a different style.

Yes, party at my place, just promise not to mind the cobwebs!

Hi everyone.

A little off topic, but since it was Friday evening, and 'mining' has been a word mentioned in today's post, I just thought that I would recommend the movie "Blood Diamond" to all of you. It is not out on DVD yet, but I managed to watch it yesterday and I must say that it is one of my all time favorites now. It focuses on the diamond trade/civil war taking place in West Africa in the late 1990's. Very interesting and powerful movie.
Bye!