« A look at Amgen, Fri., Jan. 26, 2007, 12:02 PM | Main | Cara's Daytrader Bull Board, Mon., Jan. 29, 2007, 8:03 AM »

January 27, 2007

Week #04 (2007-01-27) in Review (FINAL)

This weekend I am still recovering from weakness due to pneumonia and bronchitis. I tire easily, so I did not write much.

However, I have been forwarding my book-related private mail and blog commentary to my publisher to show your interest in re-naming the book and re-configuring the cover. The comment that came back was: "You don't have a blog; you have a cult." I take that as confirmation you and I together have been building a community.

Value Line Dow 30 Reports

Value Line published reports this Friday on three U.S. industrial corporations (GICS 20) in the Dow 30: Caterpillar (CAT), Honeywell (HON) and United Technologies (UTX).

(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26)

(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26)

(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26)

Of these three high quality companies, only United Tech is a Cara 100 company based on my assessment of fundamental and quantitative metrics. But presently I think only Caterpillar represents a possible long-term purchase candidate " not at today's price (61.09), but possibly at about 55.

Interestingly, my RSI-7 studies for Monthly-Weekly-Daily confirm that CAT is closest to the Accumulation Zone. Also here is the Current Price (CP), projected Accumulation Zone (AZ) and 12-month Price Target (PT) from point of accumulation should that occur, based on my current beliefs.

CAT " (M) 41.3 " (W) 47.9 " (D) 65.0 " (CP) 61.09 - (AZ) 55 " (PT) 83.25
HON " (M) 66.9 " (W) 54.1 " (D) 33.1 " (CP) 44.13 - (AZ) 40 " (PT) 55.00
UTX " (M) 70.3 " (W) 66.0 " (D) 63.5 " (CP) 66.04 - (AZ) 58.0 " (PT) 80.00


Caterpillar - Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 charts:
001c003.gif

Honeywell - Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 charts:

001c004.gif

United Technologies - Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 charts:

001c005.gif


For CAT, I am projecting a 12 month Dividend of $1.35, which would give me a dividend yield of +2.5 pct on an AZ price of 55, and an Estimated Total Return (TR) of +53.9 pct based on reaching the PT (83.25). The PT represents 15 times Value Line's forecast 2007 earnings ($5.55).

For HON, I am projecting a 12 month Dividend of $1.00, which would give me a dividend yield of +2.5 pct on an AZ price of 40, and an Estimated Total Return (TR) of +40.0 pct based on reaching the PT (55.00). The PT represents ~19 times Value Line's forecast 2007 earnings ($2.90).

For UTX, I am projecting a 12 month Dividend of $1.21, which would give me a dividend yield of +2.1 pct on an AZ price of 58, and an Estimated Total Return (TR) of +40.0 pct based on reaching the PT (80.00). The PT represents 19 times Value Line's forecast 2007 earnings ($4.20).

In all cases the PE multiples at the projected Distribution Zone (DZ) are higher than the current multiples, which is understandable. As the current price drops, the PE multiple drops, so I am looking to buy at a relatively low PE on a historical basis. For example, I would expect to be selling UTX at 19 times projected 2007 earnings, but buying the stock at 13.8 times. At the current price of 66.04, the stock is selling at 15.7 times projected 2007 earnings. In the 2002 Bear market, UTX traded at an average annual PE of 14.8, which happened to be below 14 in 4Q02, so in the next Bear, I expect to see similar metrics.

I also compare the balance sheets of similar companies like these three. In the past couple years, United Technologies has improved its financial strength considerably and is ranked A++ and a "1" for Safety by Value Line, which is in keeping with my ranking this company in the Cara 100. Also, the profit margins on its Otis elevator and Pratt & Whitney jet engine businesses are superlative. So UTX stays a Cara 100, and I remain on the look-out for an Accumulation Zone opportunity.

Caterpillar maintained its balance sheet strength (rated A+ and "2" for Safety by Value Line). I like its growth prospects for the next couple years better than I do those of the other two companies, for the reasons given by Value Line.

Honeywell has had a banner couple years, but the balance sheet did not strengthen. As I see it, Honeywell's balance sheet weakened a bit although Value Line still has the company rated A+ and "2" for Safety.

And, as I see the big picture, the U.S. military efforts in the Middle East have helped HON and UTX the most and now these companies have reached a peak, which shows up in Value Line's lower annualized Total Return projections through 2009-2011 compared to CAT.


Sector ETF Review

Table 1: Cara ETF List
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
IYZ 30.21 0.04 0.13% 2.13% 2.65% 3.21% 1.85% 3.35% 16.64% 27.85%
SMH 33.82 0.27 0.80% 1.26% -3.32% 0.93% 0.74% -1.66% 11.25% -11.23%
XLB 36.08 -0.02 -0.06% 0.87% 3.56% 3.71% 4.25% 8.32% 16.76% 14.98%
XLU 36.25 -0.09 -0.25% 0.55% 0.22% -1.36% -1.55% 0.86% 6.52% 12.58%
XLE 56.85 0.14 0.25% 0.44% 5.16% -3.09% 0.48% 0.39% -2.30% 2.10%
XLF 36.82 0.05 0.14% -0.38% -0.38% -0.08% -0.27% 2.99% 12.46% 14.56%
XLP 26.49 -0.07 -0.26% -0.45% -0.23% 1.22% 0.80% 1.69% 7.60% 13.50%
XLI 35.21 -0.14 -0.40% -1.15% -0.76% 0.09% -0.06% 2.06% 11.00% 11.81%
IYH 67.71 -0.26 -0.38% -1.64% -0.06% 2.00% 1.88% 1.29% 6.81% 6.48%
XLY 38.83 -0.19 -0.49% -1.97% -0.82% 1.25% 0.80% 3.74% 21.57% 16.68%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB)ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Monthly Data

XLE Weekly data:


XLE Weekly Data

XLE Daily data:

XLE Daily Data

XLE Hourly data:

XLE Hourly Data

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
STO 26.15 0.74 2.91% 4.60% 10.29% -0.42% 1.79% 1.04% -12.48% -0.95%
PBR 97.37 0.78 0.81% 2.94% 4.35% -1.90% -2.30% 8.35% 8.15% 7.67%
SU 74.53 1.11 1.51% 1.00% 6.91% -3.82% 0.84% -4.19% -8.68% -2.45%
IMO 34.28 0.06 0.18% 0.79% 7.26% -4.30% -3.87% -5.82% -5.67% -66.58%
ECA 46.95 0.14 0.30% 0.66% 4.94% 1.08% 3.55% -2.25% -11.48% 1.01%
XOM 73.61 0.09 0.12% 0.11% 3.71% -3.21% -0.67% 2.78% 10.61% 22.79%
CEO 86.40 0.85 0.99% -1.03% 2.06% -2.92% -8.35% 2.13% 2.12% 6.01%
CVX 71.50 -0.02 -0.03% -1.13% 4.09% -2.18% 0.75% 5.93% 5.93% 18.73%
TOT 66.86 0.06 0.09% -1.15% 0.32% -5.68% -5.79% -2.83% -0.18% -1.02%


Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada


Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLB Monthly data:

XLB Monthly Data

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Weekly Data

XLB Daily data:

XLB Daily Data

XLB Hourly data:

XLB Hourly Data


Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
RIO 33.00 0.27 0.82% 9.56% 14.35% 12.02% 14.50% 28.06% 45.70% 33.01%
MT 45.62 0.17 0.37% 9.22% 14.39% 10.06% 11.81% 5.43% 37.20% 41.24%
NUE 61.48 -1.17 -1.87% 7.50% 9.84% 10.69% 12.81% 3.10% 19.15% 52.90%
GGB 16.50 0.11 0.67% 7.49% 6.31% 3.77% 0.49% 7.98% 11.19% -20.67%
TCK 72.94 0.65 0.90% 5.51% 5.74% 0.05% 5.33% -3.65% 15.10% 0.00%
PKX 85.90 0.08 0.09% 4.97% 9.99% 2.59% 8.15% 21.84% 43.36% 55.90%
RTP 211.66 -1.76 -0.82% 3.12% 2.78% 1.58% 3.70% -2.28% 3.52% 0.08%
AA 32.07 0.60 1.91% 2.13% 5.25% 9.19% 9.34% 16.15% 7.69% 4.19%
BHP 40.22 -0.12 -0.30% 0.52% 3.23% 3.87% 3.47% -6.29% -5.05% 3.66%
TS 46.80 0.25 0.54% -2.64% -1.76% -4.76% -3.54% 20.18% 21.53% 50.82%


Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)



Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Monthly Data

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Weekly Data

XLI Daily data:

XLI Daily Data

XLI Hourly data:

XLI Hourly Data


Table 4 Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
CAT 61.09 1.46 2.45% 2.90% 1.82% 0.31% -0.11% -2.02% -12.89% -6.26%
UTX 66.04 -0.17 -0.26% 1.32% 3.67% 4.44% 5.14% 1.23% 6.91% 14.81%
ABB 17.47 -0.17 -0.96% 0.00% 1.57% -0.40% -1.96% 17.64% 40.66% 56.82%
MMM 78.69 -0.32 -0.41% -0.71% 0.05% 0.85% 0.55% -0.69% 13.94% 8.24%
FDX 109.89 -0.67 -0.61% -0.98% 2.06% 2.30% 0.11% -4.82% 3.03% 7.84%
ERJ 40.19 -0.25 -0.62% -2.29% 1.88% -0.20% -1.45% -4.49% 12.42% -0.77%
GE 36.07 -0.27 -0.74% -2.38% -4.88% -4.35% -5.00% 1.35% 10.37% 9.27%
HON 44.13 -0.07 -0.16% -2.56% -3.46% -1.67% -2.15% 3.06% 16.22% 17.96%
BA 85.43 -0.73 -0.85% -3.61% -3.84% -3.78% -4.19% 7.95% 6.92% 24.32%


Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)


Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLY Monthly data:


XLY Monthly Data

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Weekly Data

XLY Daily data:

XLY Daily Data

XLY Hourly data:

XLY Hourly Data

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
BC 33.81 0.46 1.38% 7.50% 10.89% 6.69% 5.92% 2.45% 16.07% -6.19%
EBAY 31.65 -0.80 -2.47% 6.78% 4.70% 4.39% 4.91% -3.51% 29.55% -28.15%
WHR 88.56 0.17 0.19% 1.69% 2.87% 7.96% 4.61% 2.17% 13.19% 8.20%
TM 131.54 -0.16 -0.12% -0.60% 2.14% -0.05% -2.78% 9.60% 29.26% 27.96%
CCL 51.96 0.28 0.54% -0.82% 2.28% 6.48% 1.98% 5.05% 29.87% -1.27%
JCP 81.06 -0.81 -0.99% -1.97% 3.30% 4.27% 3.84% 5.35% 30.87% 43.01%
DIS 34.55 -0.39 -1.12% -2.68% -1.26% 0.06% 1.02% 8.04% 17.76% 37.76%
SBUX 33.88 -0.07 -0.21% -4.67% -5.39% -5.07% -3.89% -12.84% -0.41% 7.59%
NKE 95.20 -0.64 -0.67% -4.74% -4.78% -4.90% -2.53% 1.63% 19.00% 13.36%


Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)


Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLP Monthly data:

XLP Monthly Data

XLP Weekly data:


XLP Weekly Data

XLP Daily data:


XLP Daily Data


XLP Hourly data:


XLP Hourly Data

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
ABV 50.90 0.05 0.10% 1.64% 3.88% 4.84% 3.67% 17.39% 26.11% 23.69%
MO 88.00 0.15 0.17% 0.85% -1.57% 3.29% 1.72% 7.88% 10.29% 19.32%
BUD 50.93 -0.14 -0.27% 0.22% 2.52% 3.77% 3.47% 5.62% 5.34% 21.03%
DEO 78.48 -0.06 -0.08% 0.20% 1.00% -0.34% -1.32% 4.96% 15.17% 30.15%
PEP 64.45 0.03 0.05% -0.57% -0.77% 2.56% 2.76% 0.99% 1.29% 12.28%
KO 47.83 -0.11 -0.23% -0.89% -1.87% -1.48% -1.54% 1.46% 7.60% 15.39%
WMT 47.67 -0.48 -1.00% -1.32% 0.15% 3.38% 0.25% -7.88% 9.16% 2.91%
WAG 45.19 0.05 0.11% -1.78% -1.89% -2.59% -1.91% 4.27% -4.94% 5.12%
PG 64.86 -0.06 -0.09% -1.86% 0.34% 1.04% 0.50% 2.14% 14.45% 10.27%
WFMI 42.51 -0.53 -1.23% -3.30% -7.28% -10.13% -6.53% -35.00% -23.97% -40.52%

Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Monthly Data

IYH Weekly data:


IYH Weekly Data

IYH Daily data:


IYH Daily Data

IYH Hourly data:


IYH Hourly Data

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
BMET 41.90 -0.07 -0.17% 0.55% -0.12% 1.70% 1.04% 15.14% 28.96% 17.40%
BMY 26.21 -0.07 -0.27% -1.58% -1.24% 0.58% -0.64% 6.85% 0.85% 16.13%
NVS 57.54 -0.72 -1.24% -1.73% -0.79% -0.07% -1.03% -5.33% 2.77% 3.90%
AET 40.97 -0.13 -0.32% -2.20% -3.21% -6.12% -4.45% -1.01% 2.53% -9.88%
GSK 54.61 -0.24 -0.44% -2.39% 2.90% 4.30% 1.49% -0.44% -2.55% 6.85%
JNJ 66.07 -0.61 -0.91% -2.49% -0.99% 0.66% -0.50% -4.00% 6.48% 12.56%
DNA 86.57 -0.89 -1.02% -2.78% -0.95% 8.46% 5.83% 2.43% 5.09% -0.05%
UNH 51.54 -0.56 -1.07% -3.12% -5.34% -3.17% -1.96% 4.40% 2.00% -10.97%
PFE 26.29 -0.07 -0.27% -3.42% -0.64% 1.39% 0.00% -3.63% 4.70% 4.95%
AMGN 71.50 -3.35 -4.48% -3.70% -0.57% 4.09% 4.53% -5.87% 2.72% -0.56%


Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Monthly Data

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Weekly Data

XLF Daily data:

XLF Daily Data

XLF Hourly data:

XLF Hourly Data

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
CSR 59.15 -0.11 -0.19% 2.76% 6.25% 7.66% 10.87% 15.73% -1.00% 40.13%
JPM 49.70 -0.51 -1.02% 1.93% 2.88% 2.88% 3.39% 4.04% 11.31% 25.54%
GS 213.50 0.43 0.20% 1.53% 0.76% 6.82% 6.37% 10.40% 44.86% 55.39%
DB 138.10 1.10 0.80% 1.24% 4.42% 3.93% 2.04% 9.82% 22.35% 32.20%
UBS 61.69 -0.62 -1.00% 1.15% 1.56% 3.51% 0.49% -2.39% 17.95% 14.45%
MS 82.12 -0.10 -0.12% 0.76% -0.30% 1.72% 0.61% 5.80% 27.42% 36.94%
C 54.67 0.74 1.37% 0.31% 0.92% -0.82% -1.05% 7.55% 15.02% 16.29%
HBC 91.44 -0.52 -0.57% -0.92% 1.57% 0.29% -1.65% -4.51% 1.87% 9.69%
MER 94.53 -0.69 -0.72% -1.40% -1.82% 2.49% 0.98% 8.28% 33.99% 27.19%
LEH 81.07 0.11 0.14% -2.50% -0.05% 4.62% 3.10% 3.39% 29.84% 16.56%


Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Monthly Data

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Weekly Data

SMH Daily data:

SMH Daily Data

SMH Hourly data:

SMH Hourly Data

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
ADBE 39.26 0.15 0.38% 2.21% -1.55% -5.26% -1.65% -0.46% 46.00% 1.26%
CTSH 83.12 -0.20 -0.24% 1.79% 2.73% 9.10% 6.89% 4.71% 32.36% 64.82%
INFY 57.01 0.25 0.44% 1.57% 1.66% 4.97% 2.13% 9.17% 41.46% 52.76%
SNDK 42.73 1.14 2.74% 0.90% -2.44% -0.05% 2.42% -14.78% -6.60% -39.54%
ADSK 42.47 0.20 0.47% 0.57% -3.30% 4.68% 4.71% 13.92% 34.23% 3.36%
ORCL 17.15 0.16 0.94% -0.69% -1.44% 0.12% -2.06% -8.44% 14.18% 37.86%
CSCO 26.35 0.13 0.50% -1.31% -8.16% -3.09% -5.01% 8.88% 46.88% 41.82%
INTC 20.53 -0.07 -0.34% -1.39% -6.34% 1.89% 0.88% -5.74% 17.31% -4.47%
QCOM 37.51 -0.65 -1.70% -3.50% -4.99% -0.29% 0.13% -1.26% 7.23% -21.03%
SAP 46.20 -0.16 -0.35% -5.79% -4.74% -11.85% -13.16% -7.69% 4.27% -8.57%

Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

Here's the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Monthly Data

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Weekly Data

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Daily Data

IYZ Hourly data:

IYZ Hourly Data




Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here's the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Monthly Data

XLU Weekly data:


XLU Weekly Data

XLU Daily data:

XLU Daily Data

XLU Hourly data:

XLU Hourly Data


Bond & Interest Rate Review

The Bond market took a big hit this week as traders are starting to understand that the Fed rate will not likely be coming down soon (without a crash in equities at least).

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

TNX0X Weekly Data

IRX0X Weekly Data


Interactive Daily data charts:


TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data


Interactive Hourly data charts:


TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month 4.97 4.97 4.97 4.80
6 Month 4.95 4.95 4.94 4.88
2 Year 4.95 4.95 4.90 4.75
3 Year 4.89 4.89 4.81 4.66
5 Year 4.84 4.85 4.76 4.62
10 Year 4.85 4.86 4.75 4.63
30 Year 4.95 4.95 4.84 4.76
Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 3.56 3.54 3.58 3.50
2yr AAA 3.68 3.69 3.68 3.53
2yr A 3.63 3.66 3.63 3.49
5yr AAA 3.68 3.66 3.64 3.57
5yr AA 3.69 3.67 3.60 3.51
5yr A 3.77 3.74 3.72 3.64
10yr AAA 3.81 3.78 3.74 3.85
10yr AA 3.83 3.77 3.75 3.77
10yr A 4.11 4.08 4.04 4.16
20yr AAA 4.20 4.17 4.17 4.30
20yr AA 3.96 3.93 3.93 4.38
20yr A 4.15 3.87 4.08 4.10
Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 5.25 5.23 5.18 5.05
2yr A 5.32 5.30 5.26 5.15
5yr AAA 5.25 5.23 5.16 5.08
5yr AA 5.34 5.32 5.26 5.12
5yr A 5.41 5.40 5.32 5.19
10yr AAA 5.77 5.75 5.40 5.30
10yr AA 5.70 5.69 5.52 5.39
10yr A 5.65 5.65 5.57 5.44
20yr AAA 5.93 5.93 5.88 5.72
20yr AA 6.01 6.01 5.96 5.80
20yr A 6.07 6.07 6.02 5.86

Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.


Bond Yields Curve

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For SHY

IEF Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For IEF

TLT Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TLT

AGG Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For AGG

LQD Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For LQD

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TIP


US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts


SHY Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For SHY

IEF Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For IEF

TLT Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TLT

AGG Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For AGG

LQD Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For LQD

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TIP


US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


US Bond Funds -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts


SHY Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For SHY

IEF Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For IEF

TLT Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For TLT

AGG Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For AGG

LQD Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For LQD

TIP Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For TIP

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
CFC 42.00 1.71 4.24% 1.65% -1.34% 0.31% -0.26% 9.03% 13.82% 21.25%
SHY 79.97 0.01 0.01% -0.03% 0.00% -0.37% -0.09% -0.30% 0.23% -0.50%
TIP 98.34 -0.08 -0.08% -0.07% -0.11% -0.96% -0.90% -1.69% -1.89% -3.82%
AGG 99.53 -0.01 -0.01% -0.31% -0.35% -0.95% -0.38% -0.31% 1.41% -0.84%
IEF 81.79 -0.01 -0.01% -0.50% -0.73% -1.68% -1.08% -0.97% 0.99% -1.84%
FRE 64.43 -0.07 -0.11% -0.88% -1.54% -5.82% -5.10% -6.83% 12.15% -3.81%
TLT 86.91 -0.07 -0.08% -1.23% -1.74% -3.07% -2.43% -1.75% 1.84% -3.98%
FNM 55.69 -0.88 -1.56% -2.30% -4.23% -7.11% -6.97% -7.01% 15.76% -2.21%


The best shorts on the board might well be Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE), which moved in concert with a rumor of a possible take-over of Countrywide Financial (CFC) by Bank of America (BAC). The move in CFC would have pumped up the related ETFs and, as you know, buying (for whatever reason) begets (often mindless) buying.


Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts FRE



Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

Commodities, including oil, precious metals and base metals, rallied this week. The funds came from bonds.

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:


CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Daily Chart

Gold:


Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

Interactive 60-minute data


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.



Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

Table 12: Senior gold equities

The gold and silver stocks rallied along with Bond yields. Surprising, so too did the $USD.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
AUY 13.20 0.20 1.54% 10.09% 10.46% 4.35% 7.06% 35.80% 32.00% 69.45%
AEM 39.63 0.53 1.36% 8.10% 7.72% -1.93% 1.82% 12.27% 11.79% 74.74%
GG 27.30 0.37 1.37% 6.77% 8.42% -0.80% -0.15% 11.02% -5.67% 6.47%
KGC 13.04 0.16 1.24% 5.25% 13.49% 14.29% 14.19% 4.15% 13.89% 20.18%
MDG 28.13 -0.09 -0.32% 4.30% 8.19% 3.84% 7.00% 14.86% 1.63% 6.71%
BVN 28.58 0.15 0.53% 2.84% 12.08% 4.04% 3.51% 9.59% 2.33% 2.07%
NEM 44.26 0.04 0.09% 2.36% 4.09% -2.01% 0.14% -0.87% -16.54% -24.65%
ABX 29.11 -0.28 -0.95% 1.75% 0.94% -3.32% -2.41% -4.46% -2.90% -2.80%
LIHRY 40.75 0.34 0.84% 0.02% -10.54% -7.20% 17.50% 0.59% -13.85% 70.64%
GFI 16.77 -0.22 -1.29% -0.83% -2.10% -9.30% -8.51% -4.23% -20.63% -22.43%


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Hourly data:

GDX Hourly Data Chart

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart


Forex Review

It is my guess that the $USD has rallied enough and will now be turned back at the resistance of the 200-day Moving Average level. I think the Yen/Dollar trade is out of whack and soon the Yen will strengthen, regardless of political interference. The Canadian Dollar has also reached a cycle low point where I am expecting some strengthening.


The following data requires your immediate and ongoing attention M3 update as of 1/26/2007.


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:


Weekly U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Weekly Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD

Weekly British Pound Index:

Weekly British Pound - Weekly Chart

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart



Weekly Japanese Yen Index:


Weekly Japanese Yen - Weekly Chart

Daily Japanese Yen Index:


Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart



Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:


Weekly Canadian Dollar - Weekly Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:


Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


International Equities Review

We ought to be watching the comparative relative strength of foreign equity markets to see how far this global equity Bull can continue. Divergence in Money Flow continues to be an issue.

Econoday's Ann Picker has a weekly write-up of international markets. Her report is constructive as well as wide ranging.

Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)
European indices (Interactive link)

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
EWZ 47.00 0.41 0.88% 2.69% 5.22% 2.69% 0.64% 11.06% 21.51% 15.48%
EWC 25.15 0.15 0.60% 1.58% 3.67% 1.04% 1.82% 0.20% 5.58% 8.45%
EWJ 14.23 0.01 0.07% 0.28% 2.60% 0.78% 0.21% 1.07% 9.13% 2.89%
TRF 76.96 -0.41 -0.53% -0.38% 2.54% -16.54% -13.09% 10.73% 16.59% 20.06%
SPY 142.16 -0.10 -0.07% -0.46% 0.00% 0.41% 0.56% 2.44% 12.09% 11.62%
IEV 104.83 0.29 0.28% -0.58% 1.03% 1.30% -0.73% 3.92% 14.84% 23.13%
FXI 105.50 0.85 0.81% -0.80% 2.43% -2.00% -9.36% 22.39% 36.66% 52.46%
EWU 23.48 -0.07 -0.30% -0.84% 0.99% 1.08% -0.30% 1.82% 11.12% 19.25%
IFN 44.52 0.22 0.50% -0.85% 2.11% -7.58% -1.81% -6.84% 9.49% -7.63%
QQQQ 43.57 -0.11 -0.25% -1.36% -3.33% 1.07% 0.76% 1.75% 19.08% 4.86%

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ


Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Hourly data:

Hourly EWJ


U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

For all the ETF's, you can go to the Yahoo Finance site to look into the highest weighted component issues to see the stocks and sectors that moved the worst.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Hourly data:


Hourly EWU Data

Canadian equity market ETF: EWC


Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data


Interactive EWC Hourly data:


Hourly EWC Data

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

U.S. Equities Review

The Cara mantra: Remember, we trade prices. Watch the tape. Watch the technical support.

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Monthly Nasdaq Composite Data

Monthly S&P 500 Data

Monthly Dow 30 Data

Monthly Russell 2000 Data


Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Weekly Nasdaq Composite Data

Weekly S&P 500 Data

Weekly Dow 30 Data

Weekly Russell 2000 Data


Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Daily Nasdaq Composite Data

Daily S&P 500 Data

Daily Dow 30 Data

Daily Russell 2000 Data

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Hourly Nasdaq Composite Data

Hourly S&P 500 Data

Hourly Dow 30 Data

Hourly Russell 2000 Data


Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 		1Day
%Change 		1W
%Change 		2W
%Change 		4W
%Change 		YTD
%Change 		3M
%Change 		6M
%Change 		12M
%Change
GM 32.93 -0.21 -0.63% 4.37% 6.71% 10.61% 11.82% -4.16% 2.91% 42.86%
T 36.40 -0.39 -1.06% 3.79% 5.54% 3.97% 4.15% 5.81% 23.39% 42.69%
CAT 61.09 1.46 2.45% 2.90% 1.82% 0.31% -0.11% -2.02% -12.89% -6.26%
AA 32.07 0.60 1.91% 2.13% 5.25% 9.19% 9.34% 16.15% 7.69% 4.19%
JPM 49.70 -0.51 -1.02% 1.93% 2.88% 2.88% 3.39% 4.04% 11.31% 25.54%
VZ 37.83 0.33 0.88% 1.56% 1.94% 2.94% 0.03% -2.35% 13.16% 19.41%
IBM 97.45 -0.06 -0.06% 1.33% -1.22% 1.87% 0.19% 6.46% 28.51% 20.73%
UTX 66.04 -0.17 -0.26% 1.32% 3.67% 4.44% 5.14% 1.23% 6.91% 14.81%
MRK 45.99 -0.01 -0.02% 0.86% 3.91% 7.48% 4.48% -0.48% 14.46% 35.46%
MO 88.00 0.15 0.17% 0.85% -1.57% 3.29% 1.72% 7.88% 10.29% 19.32%
C 54.67 0.74 1.37% 0.31% 0.92% -0.82% -1.05% 7.55% 15.02% 16.29%
XOM 73.61 0.09 0.12% 0.11% 3.71% -3.21% -0.67% 2.78% 10.61% 22.79%
AXP 57.85 0.08 0.14% -0.41% -2.69% -5.41% -4.16% 0.05% 11.79% 8.50%
MMM 78.69 -0.32 -0.41% -0.71% 0.05% 0.85% 0.55% -0.69% 13.94% 8.24%
HPQ 41.69 -0.02 -0.05% -0.74% -2.23% 1.86% 0.17% 6.43% 31.31% 31.93%
KO 47.83 -0.11 -0.23% -0.89% -1.87% -1.48% -1.54% 1.46% 7.60% 15.39%
WMT 47.67 -0.48 -1.00% -1.32% 0.15% 3.38% 0.25% -7.88% 9.16% 2.91%
INTC 20.53 -0.07 -0.34% -1.39% -6.34% 1.89% 0.88% -5.74% 17.31% -4.47%
HD 39.94 -0.15 -0.37% -1.50% -0.35% 2.25% -2.75% 6.85% 15.10% -1.14%
MSFT 30.60 0.14 0.46% -1.64% -0.29% 2.03% 2.48% 7.94% 25.56% 15.47%
PG 64.86 -0.06 -0.09% -1.86% 0.34% 1.04% 0.50% 2.14% 14.45% 10.27%
GE 36.07 -0.27 -0.74% -2.38% -4.88% -4.35% -5.00% 1.35% 10.37% 9.27%
JNJ 66.07 -0.61 -0.91% -2.49% -0.99% 0.66% -0.50% -4.00% 6.48% 12.56%
HON 44.13 -0.07 -0.16% -2.56% -3.46% -1.67% -2.15% 3.06% 16.22% 17.96%
DIS 34.55 -0.39 -1.12% -2.68% -1.26% 0.06% 1.02% 8.04% 17.76% 37.76%
DD 49.19 -0.47 -0.95% -3.25% 0.55% 0.08% 0.31% 7.57% 22.18% 23.56%
PFE 26.29 -0.07 -0.27% -3.42% -0.64% 1.39% 0.00% -3.63% 4.70% 4.95%
BA 85.43 -0.73 -0.85% -3.61% -3.84% -3.78% -4.19% 7.95% 6.92% 24.32%
AIG 68.59 -0.30 -0.44% -3.90% -3.79% -4.75% -4.93% 1.20% 13.88% 3.24%
MCD 42.93 -0.07 -0.16% -4.20% -3.55% -2.01% -2.14% 1.95% 24.62% 22.87%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

Dow 30 comments:

A week ago, Value Line published reports on Dow stocks: AA, DD, MRK and PFE

(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 19)

(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 19)

(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 19)

(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 19)

The VL report on Alcoa (AA) did take note how this old industrial giant is trying to re-make itself, but the report pre-dated Alcoa's stunning announcement that authorized the buyback of 10 pct of its stock and a 13 pct dividend hike.

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 3: next one is due Feb. 2)

American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 22: next one is due Mar. 23)

Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 3: next one is due Feb. 2)

Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov 17: next one is due Feb. 16)

Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 15: next one is due Mar. 16)

General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Dec. 1: next one is due Mar. 2)

Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 12: next one is due Apr. 13)

Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Dec. 1: next one is due Mar. 2)

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 8: next one is due Mar. 9)

3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov 17: next one is due Feb. 16)

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)

Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jan. 19: next one is due Apr. 20)

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 5: next one is due Apr. 6)

United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jan. 26: next one is due Apr. 27)

Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 29: next one is due Mar. 30)

Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov. 10: next one is due Feb. 9)

Wrap up:

Earlier today I watched a fascinating piece of documentary filmmaking of the short-lived April 2002 coup d'état of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. I followed up by reading the discussion at www.chavezthefilm.com. I have no comment at this time.

Yes, I have strong views on most subjects, but mine are apolitical, non-fanatical views. My economically centrist interests are aligned with the majority of the people of the world. I simply believe that we must have access rights to the same information and opportunity as people who consider themselves somehow privileged. We are constantly told that the playing field is level, but that is not true.

I hope in this day and age that all people in my blog community will be treated fairly; and occasionally when I opine that they are not, it doesn't bother me in the least to be called names like ‘conspiracy theorist'. When things are not right for us, we have an obligation to speak up and to make demands.

In doing so, the elitists and political extremists, often dressed as economists and media people, are going to fight back. Nevertheless, one day, one trade at a time, we the people are going to improve our situation.

Enjoy your day. Wherever you are in the world, I have a feeling we are on the same page.

BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 27, 2007 02:03:51 PM | Category: Cara Week in Review

Discourse

(I've been away and think I went through all the postings but if these points have been covered, sorry.)

On Thursday proudPapa had a post and provided a link to a chart comparing the '87 drop in the Dow to Newmont & Barrick.
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^dji;range19870701,19880404;compare=abx+nem;indicator=volumema(20)+rsi(7)+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

I've also been wondering how gold stocks & gold would react to a sudden drop in the general market. I added ^XAU to get a broader indication. From this chart it appears that in the initial drop: the DOW -28%, NEM -53%, ABX -40%, ^XAU -31. The end of the chart is beginning of April, around 5.5 months. At that time, even though they had all rebounded from that day in October they were still: Dow: -18%, NEM -39%, ABX -15%, ^XAU -29%. One year later (Oct 19/88) they were all still down: Dow -11%, NEM -37%, ABX -30%, ^XAU -32%.

I am going to do some more work researching this but it appears that if goldbugs think we will be spared in a "Black Monday/Friday" type of event, we may be dreaming. I believe Bill alluded to this a week or so ago. I'm still trying to figure out how gold itself responded through this same time period but haven't been able to get a symbol to work in the Yahoo chart.

For the book, I could go with the title if the "Day" was taken out -- Skills of a Trader Wizard, or Skills of a Stock Trader Wizard. Personally, I wouldn't even slow down when looking at a row of books if it was "Day Trader Wizard" as that style of trading doesn't interest me and I don't feel that is really going to be the thrust of the book.

Or I believe you came up with with the best one back in November 2005, "Reminiscences of a (modern) stock operator". I doubt yours will be a "How to" book but will be a compilation of a lot that you have stressed in these pages. The original "Reminiscences . . " was also not a "how to" book but was packed with so much wisdom that I re-read it once a year and always get something new. (Wow, this does sound "cultish"!) Best of luck with coming to a consensus.

Posted by: bobj [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 4:24 PM [link]

This comment is neither here nor there. But I suppose most of my posts might be so characterized. One of my favorite books is How to Think Like Leonardo da Vinci: Seven Steps to Genius Every Day by Michael Gelb.

http://www.amazon.com/How-Think-Like-Leonardo-Vinci/dp/0440508274/sr=8-1/qid=1169352141/ref=pd_bbs_1/002-0475505-6236832?ie=UTF8&s=books

Lifted from Amazon: Gelb says there are seven critical principles that need to be followed for success, whether you're learning a new language, studying to be a gourmet chef, or just hoping to be more effective on the job:

* Curiosita: An insatiably curious approach to life.
* Dimonstratzione: A commitment to test knowledge through experience.
* Sensazione: The continual refinement of the senses, especially sight, as the means to clarify experience.
* Sfumato: A willingness to embrace ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty.
* Arte/Scienza: The development of the balance between science and art, logic and imagination ("whole-brain thinking").
* Corporalita: The cultivation of ambidexterity, fitness, and poise.
* Connessione: A recognition and appreciation for the connectedness of all things and phenomena; "systems thinking."
-----------------------------
It seems to me that these things are important for us to cultivate to be good investors as well. I often think the last one, Connessione, is the most important. I think that Bill's blog helps us to develop that skill with respect to looking at the markets and recognizing the interdependencies of asset classes, and indeed different markets.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 5:24 PM [link]

I found an interesting analysis about the behaviour of gold according to the Kondratiev Cycle. Here it is:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/01/gold-and-k-cycle.html
It explains why gold should do well in the potentially coming winter season of credit crunch.
By the way, more info about the Kondratiev Cycle can be found also here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratieff_Waves
The stuff is a complex and questionable subject, but it's a very interesting reading.

Posted by: Lelik [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 6:51 PM [link]

Leisa
Sorry, I shall probably regret writing this and I want you to know I have great respect for your intelligence, sophistication (you like NZ Sauvignon Blancs), and appetite for taking on the more challenging questions that arrise within our...is it now, a cult?
However, I have to ask how Mr. Gelb reasons that he can speak for Leonardo da Vinci? Is he related in some bizarre way? Has he communed with the man?
On what basis does he conclude that he can inform us on these matters?
I have an amateur's interst in Da Vinci, and it bothers me that someone wants to don his mantle.
Of course we are all curious.
It is instinctive to test our notions of reality against our life experiences.
To discover that life is unreliable and illogical is not a unique observation.
Who wouldn't want to be able to balance science, art, logic, & immagination?
And if we were Leonardo we might have an approach, but please tell me how Mr. Gelb proposes that this be done?
Corporalita sounds like "small body" to me and may conote the idea of being "together".
As for connesione...is this not zen revisited.
Don't mean to be so negative, but there is so much of this stuff being peddled with so little authority.
Can you really apply this thinking?
Is it really useful or just another level of complexity?
All the more reason I look forward to Bill's pragmatic reality lessons.
With all do respect.
Rigdon


Posted by: Rigdon [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 8:43 PM [link]

YouTube to share revenue with users
Sat Jan 27, 6:30 PM ET
http://tinyurl.com/3cebcs

Maybe we should all start an "anti-cramer" show? :)
I'll dress up as the chimp.

In all seriousness, production costs for having your own webcast for profit, just got much better.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 9:51 PM [link]

Rigdon... Certainly no regrets needed. However, I'm naturally curious as to what you saw in my post that led you to levy your judgment?

Gelb (who shares your admiration and respect for this great man) does not attempt in the least to speak on Leonardo Da Vinci's behalf, but rather he was distilling the qualities exemplified by Da Vinci that some of us mere mortals might be able to emulate to unlock our our genius-like qualities however insignificant those might be in relation to Da Vinci's. Gelb is a great proponent of unlocking creativity. I'll tell you that creativity is one of the most important, but least nurtured qualities in corporate life (at least my experience in corporate life).

It's like Covey's seven habits business---Gelb, is merely saying these are the disciplines that Da Vinci engaged in and how those disciplines might enrich or lives.

Can I really apply this thinking? Yes, I can and I have with remarkable results. I really found the book inspirational. But I'm no genius, and never will be. But is my life enriched by understanding and utilizing some of these characteristics? Yes. Were they self evident to me without having read the book? No.

Is it adding complexity? No. In fact it is eliminating complexity as it is providing elemental qualities that any of us can practice to one degree or another.

Is it really instinctive to test our reality against life experiences? We wouldn't have have the neuroses that we do if that were really true. I'd argue with you (but we'd do it civilly over some wine) that it is not instinctive in the least for many people.

I'll concede, though with some real embarrassment if it were indeed true, that perhaps I'm such a simpleton that books such as this are attractive to me--and I'll take that judgment if justly levied. Perhaps all of these things at which you rail are so endemic to basic human nature that no one really needs a book to be enlightened by the power of some of these concepts. (However, if that were really true, then 95% of most books written to "help" us needn't be troubled with).

So I'll tell you this. If you were to get the book and read it and still feel so galvanized in your judgment, I will pay you the price of your purchase through an Amazon gift certificate. I think that you would find the book a tribute to rather than a usurpation of Da Vinci.

Cheers. (And you are both kind and deluded for for thinking that I'm intelligent and sophisticated.)

P.S. I've never been a member of any cult, but if it involves drinking wine, then I'm in!

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 27, 2007 10:13 PM [link]

Leisa
I thought I might regret my railings as I so often do when my tongue is loosened by the grape.
I would take you up on your offer but for one small problem: my memory for self-help is so poor that these things are wasted on me.
Each time I find wisdom, I become an unbearable proselyte for about a week, and then I forget the sermon, much to the relief of my friends.
Cheers, indeed.

Posted by: Rigdon [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 9:41 AM [link]

Thought provoking comments from Leisa, I have ordered the book and pinned the brief notes from Leisa on my desk for the moment. For me whether Gelb speaks for da Vinci or not is besides the point. For me the issues he discusses seem very useful and pertinent to traders. Sfumato Sfumato Sfumato - I think that is what life is about. Embrace that one and all problems in the world will be solved, it's not black and white as our politicians want us to believe!! Anyway kudos to Rigdon for countering in a respectful way!

Posted by: lauriston [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 9:43 AM [link]

Does anyone have any thoughts on how to play platinum and paladium without actually trading the commodities?

Posted by: Rigdon [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 9:47 AM [link]

Salient points indeed Leisa. Looking back at points in time, one can see how these principles are important to success in life. However, with all the clutter and noise of today, it is easy to let the principles slip away. Thanks for the reminder and your comments.

Rig--on the road and getting ready to drive thru some heavy snow, but off the top of my head there's PAL traded on the Amex. I also recall a company named Impala which may deal in one or the other; it may trade in Canada or the U.K. No positions in either.

Have a great, safe, warm weekend.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 10:34 AM [link]

Bill,

Could you post more info on how you determine AZ's and DZ's? And what fundamental and technical information in used in determining these zones?

Thanks.

Posted by: Quentusrex [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 11:01 AM [link]

To all,

The Shanghai Fly writes:

"With average P/Es going over 40(as you may have heard), making us the most expensive stock market in Asia, things are going absolutely wacky, with huge volatility. Shanghai index was down 3% on Thursday, down over 4% on Friday intraday and closed up 1%. They are currently at somewhat short term support. Volume is decidedly lower than the past few days though. Even on Tuesday, the indices were down about 4% intraday and closed flat near open.
Reports are that there are at least 50,000 new brokerage accounts being opened each day(give or take a few). Perhaps we're entering the mania stage of the bull market? It might be. However, sentiment is hard to gauge and trade accurately, since it's hard to say how deep the Chinese pockets are. Due to interest on CDs etc being state mandated at slightly over 2%(while lending rates are around 6%), CDs are unattractive to most Chinese, as they make one slighlty worse after inflation. That's one of reasons why so much money flowed towards real estate-- since it had very few other options! Now that the Chinese stock market is soaring, and regulations are tighter on real estate(including higher mortgage requirements, and taxes on sale of real esate etc), it is hard to say how much money will flow towards stocks, even if they're highly priced.
Last piece of news says that stock index futures' introduction will be put off till June at least. There has been simulated trading of stock index futures going on, with huge discrepancies between cash and future market prices(but anyways, just a simulation)."

To Quentusrex,

After I'm up to it, which will likely be in the next WIR (Feb 3), I will write more about AZ/DZ.

To Joseph,

NEM and ABX are the biggest goldminers but they also have the biggest challenge each year replacing their currently mined reserves. So they have to buy other companies and the cost is very high. In fact, I think the dilution is too high. The companies that are bringing new reserves into production and that have the highest future Q/Q earnings growth are the ones to consider.

To Rigdon,

Next WIR, I'll get into the list of platinum and palladium stocks I keep in my Watch List, with a brief review of each.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 11:21 AM [link]

Bill,
Since you like to track the Bond ETFs, just thought I would mention that Barclays(iShares) recently came out with some new ones that fill in the "gaps" between SHY,IEF and TLT. These are SHV (short,i.e., shorter than SHY), IEI (3-7 yr) and TLH (10-20 yr). Not looking to give you any more work (smile). Just thought you (or some of your readers) might be interested.

They also came out with three new "non-US treasury" funds (CSJ, CIU and CFT) as well as two that mix tresuries and non-treasuries (GVI and GBF). I say non-treasury rather than simply corporate because some of these actually include foreign issues; not only foreign corporate but some foreign government issues as well (Italy, Korea, Ontario . . .).

Great to hear you're starting to feel better.

Posted by: RMX [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 1:16 PM [link]

IMF gold trading rule changes set to boost the gold price.
http://tinyurl.com/2q8cp7

IMF review
The IMF has been reviewing all aspects of the gold trade by central banks for the fifth edition of its Balance of Payments Manual which includes the regulations governing gold swaps and loans. IMF officials told ResourceInvestor.com that a draft edition will be posted for worldwide comment within two months.

It remains to be seen whether the central banks now manage to sabotage this attempt to control their alleged gold market manipulation. But the very publication of the draft rules, which have clearly been endorsed internally by the IMF, throws down a major challenge to the banks.

About the source, AME Info
http://tinyurl.com/395jjp

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 2:42 PM [link]

NYUgrad,

The gold pricing issue is complex. Given that central bank sales amount to about 15 pct of supply, should that be removed clearly the gold price would rise. But the gold price is also a factor of demand and supply of fiat money, which is created by central banks.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 3:10 PM [link]

Ridgon...PAL is a stock in this space that you might want to research.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 9:09 PM [link]

Thanks Leisa (and Seamus)
Took a look. Seems to be trying to regain 50 & 200 MA, under accumulation with strength in underlying commodity. Point and figure chart hasn't confirmed. Promising earnings potential, but still in the red. Earnings might be coming out soon. Worth keeping an eye upon.
Look forward to Bill's other Pall Plat plays.
Good luck this week.

Posted by: Rigdon [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 28, 2007 9:50 PM [link]

Bill, your book title is really important. Don't let the publisher push you into a title you're not totally satisfied with.


I have a few textbooks published and know that when you're pushing to make the page content perfect and meet your deadline, it's tempting to leave the title, art, marketing, etc. all to the publisher, deferring to their judgment. Art ok, marketing perhaps if they've spelled out a detailed marketing plan, but not the title - put careful thought into it. Often all people will see is the title on the spine of the book.


Your comments about the market being like a dance reminded me of how often you have said that - and you also like Lee Ann Womack's song "I hope you dance".


So why not incorporate that into the title? "The Market's Dance: Making sure that you're leading and not following" - or something similar. The concept of dancing capures the multivariate nature of the market, IMO.

Posted by: JW [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2007 1:11 AM [link]

ALOHA !!

Rigdon ... In terms of a PPG explorer with great potential and large resources and properties I would look at Anooraq-ANO(Amex). One of the Hunter Dickinson Group companies. Located in South Africa is the only downside in terms of government stability.

Bill ... the way I see it Central Banks can now only control the rate of "rise" of gold. I believe the physical supplies are dwindling and are now in "stronger hands". Otherwise a five year gold chart would have the same flatline it had for some 20 years since its last parabolic rise in the 1980's. If Central Banks had adequate physical supplies to take the price of gold down it would have never gone over $400USD per ounce. Now we are in historically higher and sustained longer highs, yet adjusted for inflation gold is still cheap!

The latest IMF ruling regarding transparency in gold lending and swaps will probably not amount to much in terms of "real" transparency and there is a big "IF" regarding the time frame in which such rules are ever inacted. Besides the IMF is going bankrupt in terms of finances and clout. That in itself is a statement as to the destiny of the global corrupt fiat systems now in place.

Central Banks are only useful for one purpose ... concentrating monetary power in the hands of elite bankers(families). It has nothing to do with "We The People" ... I would like to see an independent accounting of the "people's" gold ... How much is left and where is it? Apparently an honest accounting of the "people's" true wealth is not a priority in America. I wonder why?


Posted by: kaimu [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2007 1:18 AM [link]

Ridgon, Don't know if you saw it, but Barron's in most recent issue had a brief note about the the automotive's industry use of plat v. pall in catalytic converters (01.29.07). Either can be used, but with the price spread pall is current the better economic choice. Converters are 60% of total platinum demand (growth of 7% expected in 2007 in plat for this use)

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2007 4:40 AM [link]

Leisa
I live so far out in the boondocks of Maine that I don't get my issue until today (Mon), day late, dollar short. Thanks for the heads up.
Kaimu, thanks also for ANO, I had forgotten about them.

Posted by: Rigdon [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 29, 2007 8:38 AM [link]

Post a comment

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)


Remember me?