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January 10, 2007
Indian stocks run into tough sledding, Wed., Jan. 10, 2007, 4:44 PM
The two India Funds that trade on the NYSE (IFN and IIF) were down -1.7 pct and -3.1 pct today. Only 3 of the other 13 stocks I follow were up. As I say, these BRIC markets are the leading indicators of a global equity market decline, so they need to be watched closely.
Interactive charts of 12 key U.S. listed Indian stocks (Interactive link)
Deepak N. Lalwani, Director of Astaire & Partners Ltd.(Stockbrokers), 40 Queen Street, London EC4R 1HN , U.K. Tel : + 44.20.7332 2614 (Direct), has sent these reports with compliments. Thank you Deepak.
I think there are legitimate reasons for investing in India for the long-run. In forty years, I suspect the GDP of India will surpass that of Western Europe and U.K. combined, and of course Japan. I intend to write more about this in 2007.
Download Dec 29 report with 2007 forecast
Gold Exchange Traded Funds (GETF) will be offered in India this year, which is certain to increase global dmand for gold.
The NYSE and two others have acquired a 20 pct interest in India's largest and most automated stock exchange, National Stock Exchange. With U.S. listing rules as strict as they are, it could be that the NYSE intends to take orders to India.
The Bombay Stock Exchange, owned by about 800 stockbrokers, which is the oldest exchange in India, is slated to offer 51 pct control to others in May.
Many India companies are listed on both exchanges, which caused me to ask these exchanges why. I didn't receive an answer from either exchange. I will have to learn more, obviously, because India is a rapidly emerging economy that, within two generations, will become a global economic powerhouse.
Whereas the strength of the Chinese economy is manufacturing, in India it is services.
In the context of a global economy, as long as there are such divergent wage levels, jobs from North America and Western Europe will continue to be lost, and the highly taxed, so-called "advanced" economies will struggle to carry the burden of social costs and public debt service.
This issue seems to me to be the biggest facing the world today.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 10, 2007 04:44:21 PM | Category: India
Discourse
bbl,
Another reader (name and company removed) sent me this letter:
---------------
Bill, The biggest advantage India has is that they speak English !!!!
In China/Taiwan etc . . all docs are in Chinese(many versions). Senior govt folks mostly speak Chinese etc etc. Business folks frequently revert to negotiations in Chinese and then translate for the "foreigners" who do not read/write/understand the local language.
Microsoft offers 4 Chinese versions of Windows . . . the keyboards are radically different .
It was clear that I was a guest, even (as exec for HB&B), in Taiwan etc. Senior management at business generally spoke OK English. Singapore, at least at (HB&B), was mostly English.
Posted by: Bill Cara ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
January 11, 2007 12:23 PM [link]
Q: does he speak English?
A: a kind of English, sir. He learned it in a place called Chicago.
from: Murder on the Orient Express
When I called to resolve some network problem, I was routed to someone (I presume) in India. Do you think I could understand him? Actually, I could, after a fashion, but it took forever...constantly asking him to repeat himself. How could I be upset? He was so nice and so obviously trying to help. (not always the case with the home-grown variety) And he's just trying to put bread on the table, like all of us.
but I did find myself wishing I was talking to some yahoo in Texas who I could understand.
Posted by: tom sheepngoats at
January 11, 2007 4:18 PM [link]
Here's a not too well know factoid - India's GDP on an absolute basis is significantly lower than Japan's today. However, when adjusted for purchasing power, it is within a few percent of Japan. And, given their respective growth rates, it should equalize in a couple of years.
Put that into your hookah and smoke it.
Posted by: rmasand at
January 15, 2007 4:57 PM [link]
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Bill,
I have spent 50% of my time in India for the last 2 years. Extremely exciting growth there. Many well managed companies. The dual listings evolved when the government created the Natinal Stock Exchange of India (NSE) in the 90's as an all electronic exchange in response to repeated scandals at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The NSE has had explosive growth due to the big bull market since 2003. (sensex index from 3000 to 13000 now) We were operating in India because it is very difficult for a foreign investor to directly invest in India. When they loosen that up it could get even more dramatic.
Posted by: bbl![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
January 11, 2007 12:15 PM [link]