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January 3, 2007
Comments about Crystallex, Wed., Jan. 3, 2007, 5:59 AM
I am not amused when readers try to pull my chain as was probably the case with "NT" this morning.
Dear Bill Cara,
I'm surprised that now you don't think it's a good idea to invest in Crystallex. Not too long ago you said after much research and after talking to a top official at Crystallex you thought it was a good trade, albeit highly speculative. Why have you now changed your mind? I've held Crystallex for several months and agree with the ROB-TV videos I listened to today. (Please see below).
Thanks in advance for your reply. I respect your opinion.
/"NT"
11:15 AM ET
Market Morning with Lisa Oake and Marty Cej
Gold
John Ing, president & gold analyst, Maison Placements Canada
Re: How to play the gold market: John Ing said...time to look at the junior players...Crystallex comes to mind.
12:30 PM ET
Market Call with Jim O'Connell
Gold and Precious Metals
Robert Cohen, portfolio manager, Dynamic Funds.
Cohen: Crystallex has had a 32% bump. From $3.20 TO $4.32. Venezuela's risk has been priced in & out of this stock. Right now it's priced out of this VZ stock and the market says Crystallex is going to get their permit.
I have received maybe 10,000 reader letters in 2006 and this one probably takes the cake.
I think 99.9 pct of you know where I stand on Crystallex.
But in case you don't: Crystallex will be the Stock of the Year for 2007. Gold will be the asset class of the year.
Cited authorities Ing and Cohen are excellent analysts.
Cohen holds lots of KRY in his Dynamic Precious Metals Fund. His comment about the permitting risk being priced out of the stock suggests to me he believes the stock is fairly priced here. If he is correct, he'll be able to buy more stock at these levels, which, from the remark he made, is what I'm presuming he'd like to do.
About the text of his comment: I disagree. Strongly. There is a healthy risk premium still in the stock.
Moreover, if, as and when the environment permit is received for mine development at Las Cristinas, the stock will probably double. Then (and this is the good part), I am expecting a take-over battle between Goldcorp and one of Gold Fields, Barrick or IAMGOLD.
Before this Crystallex play is over and done, I expect to see the share price well above US$10. My crystal ball is telling me that today (January 3) KRY will pop by, oh; +4.5 pct.
ADDENDUM:
Here is a follow up letter from "Matt":
Bill, last night i saw posts on stockhouse.ca and yahoo.An idiot was referencing you thru this link, http://www.billcara.com/gold/.
"Except there are a few foreign-controlled goldminers operating in Venezuela that I would not touch, for the reasons I have written up (Chavez). Prices have been reacting to the political risks there after there was a major fall-out on Sept. 20."this is obviously old content, back when you were not in favor of crystallex. anyone who saw the date of the post would know that.
Than i guess another impressionable person read the post and ran with it.
hope that gives you insight because i think this is what happened.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_C/threadview?m=tm&bn=10406&tid=121503&mid=121503&tof=3&frt=2
Have a good day Bill
- Matt
Unfortunately, I have no clue what people are putting on other Bull Boards. I can't even keep up to my own. In any case, if "NT" was referring to that, the writer ought to have made the citation and I would have responded appropriately.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 3, 2007 05:59:09 AM | Category: Goldminer Producers
Discourse
"Stock of the year"? I love me a junior gold now and then, and I salute you for the courage of making the prediction. I think you might even make a little scratch in US$ terms, since I think pressures on the dollar aren't about to relent.
That said, if I were to buy a single junior rather than a basket (and I don't see the point of not diversifying), it would probably be Greystar instead. Doing business in Columbia is no picnic, I grant, and GSL's deposit is at best half the size of Las Cristinas. However, there is essentially zero "Bolivarian" risk, and GSL's market cap is one-third of KRY's, which has outperformed by ~50% the last couple months.
Risk matters, as does valuation.
Crossposted to seekingalpha.
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Hi Bill
I also like gold for 2007, but KRY is too risky for me. Do you have any other favorites.
Thanks
Posted by: sliman
at
January 3, 2007 10:27 AM [link]