You must be proud.... Congrats.

Re Chavez and KRY:

Venezuela to Pay Companies in Nationalization Plan
- Venezuela's stock market rebounds

Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela will pay compensation to
companies in the telecommunications, oil and power industries that
may be subject to President Hugo Chavez's nationalization plan, the
head of the National Assembly Finance Committee said.
Venezuela's stock market rebounded after staging its biggest
decline ever yesterday. The Caracas Stock Exchange index rose 4
percent, while U.S. shares of CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela,
which Chavez plans to nationalize, gained 15 percent.
Chavez's plan involves taking over control of foreign oil
ventures in the country's Orinoco Belt by buying out their stakes,
not through expropriation, said Ricardo Sanguino, the committee's
chairman, in a telephone interview. Another option would be paying
companies for the value of their stakes after deducting owed taxes
or unpaid licensing rights, he said.
``Confiscation, expropriation are banned words in our
dictionary,'' said Sanguino. ``We will be tough but fair
negotiators. There are legal mechanisms in the Constitution that
give support to our plan.''
Nationalization is Chavez's biggest step toward reversing the
legacy of previous governments that raised $5 billion from the sale
of companies and opened Venezuelan markets to foreign investors.
Chavez, who takes the presidential oath of office today to begin a
third-term, said Dec. 8 that industries he deems as strategic to
national interests, such as electricity and communications, will be
returned to state control.
Under the plan, the government will compensate shareholders of
companies such as Caracas-based telephone company Nacional
Telefonos, or Cantv, for Chavez's plan to reverse their sale to
foreign investors several years ago, Sanguino said.
The president's plan is exclusively about reversing such
sales, not taking over companies owned by private investors -- such
as the country's biggest electricity distributor, CA Electricidad
de Caracas, Sanguino said.
``Venezuela isn't a newcomer in this nationalization
business,'' Sanguino said in the interview, referring to the
process of nationalization spearheaded by former President Carlos
Andres Perez in the 1970s. ``We know how to implement. It will be
good for our country.''
Sanguino expects Chavez, 52, to introduce legislation
requesting extraordinary powers to make law by way of executive
order next week.

Bill - Great kids you have!

I spoke with a high-level Venezuelan friend today, who has heard NOTHING negative about KRY or mining, but believes KRY may ultimately have to accept the gov't-dominated JV structure forseen in the draft Mining Law (despite KRY's pre-existing concession). I believe if KRY plays their cards right, they could prosper under such conditions. After all, Armand Hammer even did well in the oil business in Soviet Russia!

For context, there were rumblings last year that Chavez might not accept VZ's planned sale of telco shares to Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim. Part of Chavez motivation was apparently to not have the telco sold "on the cheap" to Slim. The other part was the military mind, and the need to control infrastructure key to national security.

I asked Bill if he was interested but he cannot attend. Is anyone interested in purchasing an extra ticket to the Bears-Seahawks game this weekend. I am attending the game-driving out tomorrow morning.
Please let me know of your interest by replying to this message with a means to contact you or email me at raygu@comcast.net. I don't want to hog Bill's wonderful blog.
BTW-Bill granted me permission to make this post, and I wouldn't want to set a precedent here.
Thank you Bill.

Ray

Great safe haven article link below discussing the effect of a recession on commodities prices.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6675.htm

I disagree with the author on some of the points and put in the first comment at below link.

http://www.safehaven.com/comments-6675.htm

Best regards,

BG

Any thoughts on where the bottom might be in commodities? I am following oil, gold and copper.

I believe fundamentals are still supportive for each of them.

Thoughts?

Regarding Oil, Gold and Copper in terms of Stocks, I am seeing some short term bottoming potentialin Gold and Copper, basically I have double bottoms in some of my breadth averages while Gold and Copper stocks have been making these recent new lows. I consider this to be a rather mild positive breadth divergence however. For Oil/Energy stocks on the other hand I have breadth confirming these new lows although I suspect after tonights download I will see some ever so slight positive divergence as well.

Cheers!
Ralph
http://blog.successfulonlinetrading.com/

p.s. My favorite pick last night was IYR, had I think the 7 highest breadth out of all 273 groups I track yesterday. That combined with that sweet looking double bottom at the 50sma, paying nicely now... :)

I am looking to see if oil bottoms due to the following:

1. Selling ceases from longs squeezed by the recent GS rebalancing and NYMEX margin requirement increase.

2. Change in the weather. It seems like the weather always evens out for each season - we're due for some cold weather.

3. Inventories priced into the market.

4. Geopolitics is in edge.

Will one or more of the above cause a short covering rally and an actual bottom?

Not a prediction, just thinking about this due to the significance on stocks, bonds and gold.

Here's what I said yesterday morning at 6:55am:

"$USD has had a nice little run off the bottom and has entered a resistance zone Bill so I would expect traders to take a little here. Gold can rise into 615 area and slightly above. Then I expect the $USD countertrend move to resume. That will give The Boys cover to engineer a takedown if they wish."

So we had a one day pause in the $USD rise (TU), gold moved to 615 and now we are seeing violent moves down (and back up)in gold.

P.S. I did not like the way the bellcow acted today. I thought her movements too erratic and pronounced.