XBD TLT FOMC!

XBD back down to test it's former breakout level, TLT touching 200dema, fomc decision weds., and non farm payroll friday looming ahead...

no stocks above $20 getting any volume in premkt...
europe strong gave us the 8am ET gap up in indexes...

financials are the biggest weight in the SPX, so XBD been leading SPX around lately
RSH goldman upgrade, breakout
MOT icahn seeks board, +5% gap up

Merrill Lynch is okay with gold stocks ... sort of (from today's Globe and Mail)

"Our counsel to clients has been to reduce Canada exposure within a global portfolio, reduce equity exposure within a Canada portfolio, and reduce commodity exposure within a Canadian stock portfolio," Mr. Wolf began his reluctant endorsement in a note to clients. "Not all clients can, or want, to get out of Canadian materials and energy stocks fully. For those inclined to retain exposure in these areas, we believe that gold will be among the best performing elements on the commodity complex ahead, and suggest the sector could be a good place to hunker down through a potentially difficult 2007."

Merrill Lynch is forecasting that gold prices will rise for the sixth straight year and average $675 (U.S.) an ounce in 2007, up 12 per cent from last year, Mr. Wolfe said in the note. This increase may not be "great shakes," but it "certainly shines" in the context of double-digit declines the firm is predicting for most base metals.

Gold's key driver will be a tight demand-supply balance. Demand is expected to rise by "a robust 8.6 per cent" while supply, which dropped 4.2 per cent last year, will likely climb just 0.3 per cent.

Merrill Lynch current rates Goldcorp as a "buy" for investors, along with Barrick Gold Corp., Eldorado Gold Corp., Iamgold Corp. and Yamana Gold Inc.

Re KRY, outside of the permit, the results of their exploratories will be interesting. If my poor memory serves, it will be May or so when they have the results of this.

i am watching the GFI chart,i believe @ 15us$ is a big buy opportunity(ema 200 weekly,former resistance,ipersold).
I hold at the moment ABX(ema 65 weekly is a nice support),the move is pretty good as gold spot.

d31, I too am watching tlt, down the road we could look back at this week as a momentous week for stocks/housingmarket/creditbubble etc. if no bond support.

Bill,

What is the market telling us when a Dow30 component, MMM, can drop 5% in price , as it did at the opening on less than a miniscule 1M shares trading? Perhaps there are those who can offer ideas on this?

WFMI broke one downtrend line today.

add to above post
long wfmi

Bill
I notice US Gold is having a luncheon on Feb. 14
will you be attending?

crude oil winning the battle of what's influencing gold and silver thus far, as it's moved from below 53 yest. to 55.25 now

dollar firm and fomc decision(if hawkish) the negatives.. HUI 332 50MA resistance above

volume seems low across the p.m.'s, leaders AEM MDG PAAS SSRI SLW SWC FCX

terry, MMM dropping -5% on open isn't unusual on earnings reports, IBM did same awhile back

For all those who follow the Venezuela situation, here is an interesting article from Seeking Alpha:

Why Venezuela and the US Need Each Other

http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/25485

KRY weakness yest. said to be due to a downgrade in their commercial paper rating, look at 1-29 post here:
http://antandsons.com/wordonthestreet.html

Anyone have any insight into why SLW is languishing while silver has headed back up these last few weeks?
EJ

Crystallex on fire!
I cannot confirm below but the pps on amex started dancing while i read it.

DJ Venezuela Mining Min: Crystallex Receives "Preliminary" Permit

CARACAS (Dow Jones)--Canadian mining firm Crystallex International Corp. (KRY) has been granted a preliminary environmental permit to begin exploiting the Las Cristinas gold mine in the east of the country, the country's mining minister said on Tuesday.

"Right now, Crystallex is able to proceed with preliminary construction with the final environmental permit to be issued shortly," said Mining Minister Jose Khan, speaking to reporters in Caracas.

Khan said the state is no longer looking to set up a National Mining Company to regulate the mining industry.

-By Raul Gallegos, Dow Jones Newswires; 58-212-564-1339; raul.gallegos@dowjones.com;

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 30, 2007 13:01 ET (18:01 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 01 01 PM EST 01-30-07

KRY is definitely bouncing, but not moving the way you'd expect with a preliminary permit being issued. It rose 9% and fell back again to +5%, and is now jumping up and down.

Anyone else watching this other than NYUGrad who can add some comments?

RE:KRY

WOW - this amazes me - although it was expected and discussed here - I can't believe the manipulation - I was so close to bailing seeing a healthy profit diminished in minutes/days - luckily I have a low cost base and patience.

UP-DOWN-UP-DOWN - NATIONALIZATION - CRAMER - DEBT - PERMITS - what a whipsaw!

A lot of what Bill writes in these pages make more and more sense with every case-in-point and this is one of them.

UN-BELIEVABLE

Thank you Bill for teaching us how to filter the noise!

Hey maybe there is a title for you -
"Filtering The Wall Street Noise - Independent Decisions for Independent Traders by Bill Cara the Trader Wizard"

sergio,

this might be false. I got this off bullboards so the credibility is LOW, but as i read it the volume just shot up! too fast in my opinion for investors like me to make those orders and get them filled. the news has a signature stamp of 1:01pm eastern. I still am not sure if this is a hoax.

Just from observation, no matter how low KRY has fallen lately, there has been a ton of supply at all levels. So my guess is, all those unwatched limit orders will have to be worked off before it can really rise. Hope it's true about the permit, though.

What i want to know is, if this is true, how can dow jones be releasing this before Crystallex?

KRY says the story has no merit.

that was some fakeout. whoever posted that is going to get fried.

Jeez... that's bulls**t... I can't believe people get away with such actions.

I have been away. Glad to hear Bill is better.

Regarding KRY: I just spoke with Dow Jones Newswire. According to this person the Dow Jones has not put out an article on KRY since 1/26/07, which is the last article my system can access.

NYUgrad, where do you pull (your source) for that Dow Jones Article above?

Telestar

telestar,

I read it on stockhouse, which refered to yhoo boards which i dont go to. So i delved into the depths of hell and saw this post.
http://tinyurl.com/2h2xtu

So that user "brooose" should be expecting some calls.

Somebody posted the fake Dow Jones press release regarding KRY on yahoo bulletin boards. It then got spread around to other bulletin boards before anyone tried to verify it.

There is no end to the drama with this stock.

it's all very suspicious! How can a yhoo post cause 2+M shares to trade in an instant? someone had their buy button as well as sell button ready.

I just gave the link to someone at Dow Jones. She said she would show it to her boss. I suggest everyone make a complaint to the SEC.

It makes me somewhat ill to even write this post...
I agree with MarkM, who has been suspiciously absent, let's get off the "all KRY all the time", and try and keep the posts professional.

I don't think posts from message boards without a direct link to a real news wire article should be made here... that simply adds unnecessary hype.

I'm pretty sure everyone here is watching KRY daily and unsubstantiated posts do not belong here - leave them at their 'source' please...
TG

E-mail to SEC to file a complaint:

enforcement@sec.gov

RE: manipulation of penny mining stocks

As mentioned previously by Bill, author Ivan Shaffer has a couple books about the stock promotion business of Canadian mining. The recommendation was to read:

"The stock promotion business;: The inside story of Canadian mining deals and the people behind them" by Ivan Shaffer

but because the book is impossible to find, I settled for reading:

"The Midas compulsion" by Ivan Shaffer

It gave me much insight into what could happen with KRY. It's also a fast read for those wondering.

Learned a lot today, and thankfully, it didn't cost me anything!

After reading NYUgrad's post about the alleged environmental permit for KRY, I focused on the ticker, thinking about increasing my position in the stock. Not being a true daytrader, I was puzzled by a sudden reversal in the price, which was when writersblock's post seemed salient. The cautions that this story was not verified, gave me further pause.

Long story short, this group of posters, through their honesty, experience and willingness to share, helped me learn some more today, (and appears to have helped me avoid buying at the day's highest price).

Thanks all.

Question, Does anyone know of any companies that build nuclear reactors? I came up with Bechtel, but its private.

If anyone has any knowledge here and is willing to share it is appreciated.

Thank you in advance.

Tel3d

all this nonsense about kry and not one comment on WFMI or any other quality stock making moves today?

it is human nature to be more interested in stories than an actionable trade based on fundamentals plus technicals.

KRY will do what it does, it is not a high probability trading vehicle, but the WFMI trade was. KRY is a spec play that should amount to a low percentage of your portfolio and lots of patience. Focus on bread and butter.

my $0.02

Disclosure: Long both KRY and WFMI

Tel3d,
GE
http://tinyurl.com/2k4mvy

NYUgrad
just a heads up, your name has been mentioned in the yahoo bull board where this kry info was posted,reason being that you apparently left out the last paragraph of the supposed DJ story on KRY when you posted it here. You have posted on here many times and i have no reason to believe what others are saying there.

thanks tgifbipo,

I have timestamps of all my posts and my email to richard marshall asking him about this. my post was a direct copy from another board. i havent even logged into my brokerage acct today.

My post here was simply my observations.

Tel3d--Shaw Group operates in this spaces as well.

Tel3d--Shaw Group operates in this spaces as well.

Tim G: "I agree with MarkM, who has been suspiciously absent"--conspicuously absent, but not suspiciously so.

He's still in the woodshed. We did some smokin', drinkin' and cussin' and young and old folks alike. I hope he comes back.

NYUgrad
Good to hear this, all the best to you, please keep up with your contributions, crap like this happens, go34 s thread hit this nail right on the head

Tetestar3d -

AFAIK tradeable nuclear reactor builders:
- Areva (French, can be traded via IB on euronext, very small float though);
- GE (small part of it's business);
- Toshiba Plant...(Toshiba parent also acquired Westinghouse Nuclear, available via IB on Tokyo Stock Exchange);
- Mitsubisi Heavy... (IB);
- Hitachi Plant... (IB);
I am long a little bit of each for a while.

Canadian and Russian builders are not public IMHO.

Note I am not 100% sure where the profit from Westinghouse will go - it may go to Toshiba parent or Toshiba Plant subdivison or both.

There are also many companies in related business such as Siemens, ABB etc. and uranium miners that could benefit from N.E. renaissance.

This is an area of interest for me so I would like to here more as well !

Toshiba makes nuclear reactors also.

The main leaders in reactor technology are:

GE Energy....division of GE
Atomstroyexport...Russian...delivering to Iran
AECL...Canadian govt. agency
BNFL Group of Japan...recently bot Westinghouse
Areva...French public co...big in every U sector

Building reactors are massive, expensive undertakings...usually bid as consortiums.

Getting to the bottom of a fake Crystallex stock tip
by globeandmail.com

The link:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070130.wcrystallex0130/BNStory/Business/home

My question to NYUgrad is when you cut and pasted the information; why did you leave out "It said that Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez was “leaning toward filling the mine with water and soaking his fat ass in it.�"

Seems that that would have been a clue that Dow Jones would not write that.

Anyway I'm moving on as I know some people are tired of this subject.

PS Thanks to all for your thoughts on nuclear power.

Telestar3d and everyone else,

To clarify here are the posts i originally read, and you shall see i copied verbatim. 2nd link is the person admitting he deleted the last line and regretting he did so. and no, I am not "rps1980." once i realized this was a hoax i immediately found the yahoo post, the origin, and emailed it directly to richard marshall.

http://tinyurl.com/39qvhq
http://tinyurl.com/ywwlpy

Lesson learned. I def wont be posting for a while.

And when i do i will remember that potentially millions will read it here.

To my online friend NYUgrad and all other online friends. I was unaware of the above.

As I think Todd Harrison's grandfather use to say something to the effect: this too shall pass.

Peace to all.
Tel3d

It is dismaying to see these aspersions cast on NYUgrad regarding some story about which he was merely the messenger. I too have posted here regarding odd news that has moved KRY. I have to admit that I'm not in any position to confirm wire stories, and I doubt that few here are.

NYUgrad owes no one an apology and his/her comport has always been beyond reproach...except of course every time he went to lunch KRY was doing something stupid upon his return.

Thank you for the defense Leisa, but we all have a job here and i neglected it with lack of judgment.

I have suspected, but now know that posting comments on this blog is a privilege not a right, because of the name all the way at the top of the header.

Thousands of readers come here for credible knowledge from Bill Cara. As well as to learn from each other in the commentary. Many contributors have earned credibility here and know not to abuse that credibility, like i did today (whatever little i had).

Drivel can be found very easily outside the walls of this blog; I am sorry I let that in today.

btw Leisa, i'm a he.

Go easy, NYUGrad. People make mistakes. But in a setting such as this, those mistakes can have ramifications. I have noticed over the last few years that I have been actively reading that Bill's blog can move the markets. Sounds like you've learned that lesson in a painful way. We'll all move on. You will too, and you'll keep contributing in a positive fashion, as you have before.
EJ