dear Bill,
abx is flirting with his ema 65 weekly.if above,i think,could be a nice long.What do you mean about it?
Fabio

falling oil (lower costs) + rising gold (higher revenue) = higher prices for gold mining companies (perfect scenario barring an equity market meltdown)

"Gold ETFs likely to be launched in a month: AMFI

Mumbai, Jan 10: Traditional household investment in gold will soon have a new option with the much awaited Gold Exchange Traded Funds (GETFs) expected to be launched within a month."

http://www.newkerala.com/news4.php?action=fullnews&id=77538

g034-

Right now we are chop, chop, chopping DOWN. This pattern needs to be broken to the upside before I will get aggressively long in this sector again. IMHO, traders are weighing all the deflationary forces out there just as they were disinflationary ones. Until the macro environment gets recognized, this area will continue to frustrate. I don't think that comes until later.

Watch for the NDX 100 to break out. QQQs are poised to break highs. Tech is on fire.

I have been playing with various deviations on the Bollinger Bands. Most stocks in distress or euphoria seem to trade past the 2.0 deviation. I have tried a 3.5 deviation and found that I spot the best entry/exit strategy.
Would anyone like to comment on the best approach to screening stocks for their watchlists? Software, etc. I seem to miss the mark here. Looking for direction from those that are willing to share.

Its a surprise hike, when inflation is meant to soften with lowering oil prices.

May be the BOE is giving itself manouvering space to cut rates when economy slows.

GDX found support at it's 38.2% retrace from oct lows. Any rally will break it's power downtrend line to the upside.

GLD is chopping to the upside clearly seen in the 60 min. and consolidating for the last few days.

There are a number of quality gold shares with distinct downtrend lines that are currently oversold and when the breakout to the upside occurs it will be quite obvious. I suspect that a lot of the scared gold share holders are out and that a good buying opportunity awaits for those of us who sold on the uptrend line breaks...

g034-

I don't disagree with any of your chart observations. Different timeframe. We have a 3 day chop upward off of oversold levels. Right. My chart view was not at the 60 minute level.

Adonis- The energy/tech play has been interesting. Will it negate the fact that the number of Naz stocks participating has been rolling over for 60 days? We shall see.

Bingo, Bill. IMHO, the Naz 100 boost (which has merely gotten it back to levels seen early December) has been an energy into tech "trade". Once that fades, it's buh-bye.

If money is flowing into oil, that'll be supportive of gold. I certainly do not want to revisit 570 again. Once I think it is time to be bullish, I will be more aggressive. Is this a bottom? Maybe, but I already have positions taken at XAU=121 and 133 from a long time ago that I consider core so I just wait for developments.

Interesting commentary regarding the oil markets here.

I have a gut feeling that the economic weakness that is forthcoming in the U.S. (and ultimately around the globe) will drive the price of a barrel of oil down to the mid to low $40s. How long it stays there is another issue, but I can feel continued further weakness.

I've heard/read many of the stories of peak production and so forth. I'm just saying that (temporarily) prices may come back much further than most believe.

I think gold comes below $600 also. Quite possibly back to it's longer term trend line. I don't like admitting this because it means more pain for the longs (me) but it is what it is.

The housing market continues to deteriorate. Banks are increasingly faced with the reality of liquidating properties coming back to them through foreclosure, and they want them off the books ASAP.

There are essentially 2 ways to sell - on the way up or on the way down. We're on the way down, IMO; and it won't be particularly fun for those trying to sell in 2007.

Best wishes and a prosperous, healthy new year to all.

Nice call on money flows. Oil stocks are strong today.

Has anyone considered that this is motivated by Bush's latest folly, which was widely expected, and announced officially last night?

Nasdaq is breaking out today. We could see 2500 if this continues. Long QLD has been a good trade.

Naz just got a P&F Buy signal. Tech looks to break out.
My PMs doing well. NGAS is up. Weather is getting colder
for a while.

Weather Map

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

Here is an article suggesting Central Banks are looking to
put money into equities to increase returns. Trillions lol.

LONDON (Reuters) - Central banks around the world are looking to invest more of their $4.75 trillion foreign exchange reserves in equities at the expense of bonds, but the implications for currencies are far from clear.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2007-01-09T141006Z_01_L0945935_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-RESERVES-DIVERSIFICATION.xml&WTmodLoc=OddNewsHome_R3_reutersEdge-1

MarkM- I agree with you on the energy/tech play. That has definitely been pushing up the Naz the last few days. Interesting to notice that the Naz has been leading this market the last few days unlike Nov-Dec, where the Naz stalled and the Dow took over.

Bill- What money flow indicator do you use ?

On another note, the last few weeks the bears have had the chance to 'snatch' the market away from the bulls but it appears they have no firepower. The bulls have done a great job defending key levels like 1400 on the S&P , 12300 on the Dow and 2400 on the Naz. Looks to me like this bull rally will go on a lot longer.

KRY up .45
Any news?

Chavez ruled out any imminent move to nationalize the mining sector limiting the move to just telecomm and power.Hence the pop in KRY.

Well, so much for patenting that Money Flows Indicator. :)

Big ol' reversals in XLE and OIH and GDX has a big fat tail up. Not the close the gold longs wanted but all things considering ($USD and $WTIC) not too bad really. There's always tomorrow to start the rally.