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January 29, 2007
Cara's Daytrader Bull Board, Mon., Jan. 29, 2007, 8:03 AM
I will be taking another day off. But I did manage a short report today.
Interactive links
Econoday economic calendar
Asia-Pacific indices
European indices
$USD Index
U.S. Treasury Bond Mar. contract
NYMEX Oil Mar. contract
Gold spot chart
Silver spot chart
Platinum spot chart
Palladium spot chart
There appears to be more interest presently in Palladium than Platinum for industrial uses in automobile catalytic (emission control) converters because Platinum prices have risen due to investment/jewellery demand, particularly from China.
$CRB Index
Open Futures Contracts
Goldminer stock watch
In Focus
Here are the Cara 100 End of the Week RSI-7 values prepared by "David" using Welles Wilder smoothing. I decided to put them into Monthly-Weekly-Daily order because the Monthly values are the most important to long-term oriented traders. I also had them sorted by both Monthly and Daily highest and lowest values.


Except for the precarious state of the broad market, I believe WFMI is in the Accumulation Zone with smoothed RSI-7 values of (M) 29.23 " (W) 20.96 " (D) 17.90. For the long-term oriented trader, this stock ought to be purchased on all down spikes while in the AZ.
With the exception of the Cara Fab 4 Telcos (Russia's Vimpel Communications and Mobile Telesystems and China Telecom and China Mobile), plus India's Infosys, which I' sure would make most readers nervous holding (despite the phenomenal price moves of the past couple years), the other five Cara 100 companies with stocks that presently have the highest Monthly RSI-7 values represent the best in core portfolio values: Diageo, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Disney, and Toyota Motor. However, as these RSI values cycle through a toppy Distribution Zone, I am a seller. I am more interested in booking gains and avoiding capital risk than any other consideration.
Daily RSI > 70 in Cara 100 (7) With one click, these charts can be changed to Monthly or Weekly values.
Daily RSI < 30 in Cara 100 (7) With one click, these charts can be changed to Monthly or Weekly values.
Yesterday's portfolio movers from the Cara Watch List:
Here are the top gainers from Friday from the Cara 100.

Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List gainers (Interactive link)
Stanley Works (SWK) was up +5.1 pct on Friday after Baird raised the rating from Neutral to Outperform. Earlier JP Morgan had raised the rating on Brunswick Corp (BC) from Neutral to Outperform, and the stock was up +1.4 pct on Friday.
Brunswick, which makes big ticket SeaRay boats (among others), seems to have reached an operational bottom or close to it. Let's look at the comparative prices of BC (black/red?) and TOL (blue) and HOV (green).
I believe that at the long-term cycle bottom (Accumulation Zone), all three of these stocks will bottom simultaneously. I believe the July bottom was an intermediate cycle bottom only, which extended the 2002-2006 (May top) into an additional intermediate cycle that is topping out now.
Here are the top gainers from Friday from the Cara 100.

Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)
Interactive charts of the 52-week Intra-Day Highs or Lows in Cara 100
Stanley Works was the only stock in the Cara 100 Global Best Companies to have a 12-month intra-day high, and Whole Foods Markets was the only one with a 12-month low.
This morning AG Edwards upgraded Home Depot and Lowes. I think when Home Depot recently borrowed $5 billion and fired CEO Robt Nardelli, there were signs that maybe private equity was snifing around, and I think that may be the real reason for the Edwards upgrade.
I also think these stocks are topping out.

Econoday Weekly International Report
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 29, 2007 08:03:55 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board
Discourse
Bill:
Your below $16.00 prediction on GFI has come to pass.
Posted by: C.Note
at
January 29, 2007 9:56 AM [link]
WFMI struggling to break it's downtrend line to the upside. An upside break will be a buy signal for some traders.
TLT oversold, looking for the same upside break.
Gold nearing key $650 upside breakout, but overbought.
Re: FOMC meeting. If bonds break this support and yields rise, will stock market stay afloat? If gold breaks above $650, how bullish would that be? Due to the current price levels of gold and bonds, it seems to me that Bernanke/Paulson would like to see gold remain contained below $650 and bonds to rise from here. Gold is overbought and bonds are oversold, so that shouldn't be too hard to accomplish with the FOMC meeting. In other words, if these levels break, we could look back at this time as significant.
Posted by: g034
at
January 29, 2007 11:08 AM [link]
SSRI PAAS very strong, these two are on all daytrader lists as they have been doing new 52 week highs many days
overall, p.m.stocks 'refused to go down' thus far
Posted by: deacon31
at
January 29, 2007 11:46 AM [link]
HUI.x now down -2.2% as crude oil drops under 54.0
(crude was 56.0 sunday nite)
commodities in general could not stand up in the end under the crude decline, and i agree with g034 above that gold has some overbought technical indicators
NDX,on the other hand, has some technicals in the bottoming zone, stochastics and rsi(5)
semiconductors would be a sector to go to if NDX takes off
notice how XBD and SPX run together
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?$HUI,$XAU,$OSX,$XOI,$RUT,$XBD,$SOX,$INDU,$SPX,$NDX|B|H14,3
Posted by: deacon31
at
January 29, 2007 3:53 PM [link]
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zinc, copper, silver the metals are down fairly hard, crude oil(nr7 set up) after testing 56 sunday nite, is now down testing 55
...not much trading, heaviest AAPL INTC BMY
...notes: MSFT sales Vista will be fully on sale January 30, KLAC target up at Bank America, INTC – friendly comments from CEO 10-15% growth per year, CSCO and GOOG earnings reports this week, both have upgrades today
Posted by: deacon31
at
January 29, 2007 9:32 AM [link]