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January 26, 2007

Cara's Daytrader Bull Board, Fri., Jan. 26, 2007, 6:54 AM

CNBC anchor Maria Bartiromo is in the news again, this time with a former Citi executive. Who really knows the facts of these situations? I'm sure we'll never find out, so it's best to read these reports as pure entertainment. As it is not going to make you any money, it's just part of the noise of markets that ought to go in one ear and out the other.

The big story yesterday was the size of the loss taken by Ford Motor (F): $5.8 billion for 4Q06 and $12.7 billion for the year. After GM and DaimlerChrysler report losses for all 2006, this will be the first year since 1991 (ie, 16 years) that all three of the Big Three had losses in the same year. Could 2007 be a repeat, or will GM pull the money bunny out of the hat?

Do you recall how Ford management misled traders a couple years ago with claims of earning multi billions at the time the company prospects were tanking? And a year or so ago, GM had media people convinced they had huge sales gains that turned out to be phantom ones.

There is a parallel, I think, between the huge U.S. durable goods manufacturers like GM, Ford, Boeing, etc, and the sell-side of Wall Street, in that bad news is glossed over and good news is hyped to ridiculous levels in order to sustain a buying mood by consumers. Every few years, the reality gap becomes so extreme that traders throw in the towel.


Interactive links



Econoday economic calendar

Today, from the U.S., there are two important datapoints to come: (i) durable goods orders and (ii) new home sales. Once you have opened these Econoday reports, you can simply change the year and month in your browser and pull up archived reports. I do this often for key reports right at trend and cycle reversals to try to understand why traders were fooled into believing that those reversals were not happening.

For today's data, which will be reported later this morning and then updated in report form by Econoday an hour or two after that, there are two items I will be focused on: (i) discussion of U.S. manufacturing orders of companies like Boeing and the Big Three U.S. auto makers, which ought to be a serious concern. Maybe Boeing orders have peaked? Maybe the U.S. consumer does not have the funds to buy new cars and other big ticket consumer durables " not just in 2006 but also for 2007? The state of the economy rides on this. (ii) The U.S. economy also needs a healthy housing industry, which is the subject of the other major report out today, Dec new home sales. Nov sales were higher than expected and up +3.4 pct over Oct, running at an annual rate of 1.047 mil units. I think a lot of the increase came from give-aways and price incentives. Should today's (Dec) report show further (temporary) strength, expect to see another rally in bond yields, and decline in bond prices.



Asia-Pacific indices

There are two key issues in the Asia-Pacific region: (i) will the People's Bank of China take steps to cool the economy's CPI run-up and the flood of speculative money pushing up stock prices? (ii) will the Bank of Japan keep its overnight bank loan rate so low as to sustain a low Yen/Dollar rate?

Japan's core CPI slowed to +0.1 pct in Dec, so maybe BoJ will not raise rates, which would help strengthen the $USD, and facilitate sales of Japan's exporters. As long as that situation persists, expect to see a continuing rally in the Japanese broad equity indexes. On the other hand, Dr. Joe of the PBOC is likely to take new policy action to tighten China's financial system because the latest CPI data is threatening.



European indices

The market open required an adjustment to yesterday's U.S. double digit Dow loss. The afternoon sessions in Europe will be key. Early on, there is not much happening in Euro/Dollar trading.



$USD Index

The past 24 hours has seen a strong rally in the $USD as bond yields have rallied. The other reason, of course, is that Asia-Pacific currencies (like the Yen and Won of export giants Japan and Korea) have weakened. That's fine for now with the Yen, but fundamentally these currencies should be stronger, which would be hurting exporters like KIA Motors (Hanja ki " "Rising out of Asia"). Soon there will be a $1 billion KIA auto manufacturing plant in Georgia that will employ 5,000 American workers turning out 300,000 vehicles per year. So, good old American manufacturing expertise is losing out on their home turf, but domestic jobs are assured.



U.S. Treasury Bond Mar. contract

The U.S. Treasury market has weakened a lot since mid-day Monday.



NYMEX Oil Mar. contract

Early today, the Crude Oil markets are up about +0.6 pct but really undecided, probably due to the time needed to assimilate yesterday's pull-back below $55 oil. I still feel that $55 oil will be the mid point of the trading range for 2007, down from the $60 average of the previous $55-65 range. Longer-term, I'm expecting to see higher oil prices because no major discoveries are being made, and extraction/refining/transport costs are rising quickly. In 5 to 20 years, the use of alternative fuels will keep the lid on oil prices I feel. Meanwhile, cash flows of the producers and integrateds are so high and the balance sheets so strong that share prices that dip on broad market pull-backs ought to be bought.


Gold spot chart

After the pull-back from $654 to $644 yesterday afternoon, gold has been side-tracking. Beware; if you hear the sell-side talk about drifting prices, it means they are falling. In a selling environment, prices never just "drift" higher. The key here today will be the new homes report. If the homes data is a surprise on the upside, bond yields will rally and gold prices will fall. If the surprise is to the downside (say under an annualized rate of 1 million new homes), then yields will fall and gold prices will rally. Traders who are prepared for these key datapoints sit with their trigger fingers ready to enter buy/sell trades.

In the case of gold, you (ie, sophisticated accounts " the exempt market) can trade at spread-betting and Contracts For Difference (CFD) firms like CMC Markets at just 1 pct margin. In that case, $10,000 controls $1 million of buy/sell contracts. According to Report On Business investment writer Rob Carrick, the margin rules for hedge funds trading with IDA of Canada broker-dealers are going to change on April 2 from 50 pct margin to just 15 pct for instruments like ETF's, which will likely add to market volatility.


Silver spot chart

Silver took a hit yesterday afternoon, but longer-term I believe the price is going to rally, only kept in partial check by rising interest rates and bond yields.


Platinum spot chart

Platinum was up a bit overnight. January's rising price trend continues.



Palladium spot chart

The rising price trend since mid-Dec continues.



$CRB Index

Long-term, the commodities index has been in a Bear since May. I feel that the rapid decline is about over and $CRB will side-track from here for several months.



Open Futures Contracts


Goldminer stock watch


In Focus


Here is the End of Day RSI-7 values prepared by "David" using Welles Wilder smoothing that tends to eliminate or at least reduce erratic, non-smoothed numbers calculated by Investertech.

001d023.gif



RSI > 70 in Cara 100 (Top 5)

In one day, the number of Cara 100 stocks with a RSI-7 over 70 dropped from a "scary" high of 30 to just 5.

RSI < 30 in Cara 100 (8)

I believe the next Bull market will start when General Electric (GE) starts to rally. I think there are months of lower prices to be worked through here. But 2007 and 2008 will likely see GE as a Cara 10 leader on the upside.


Yesterday's portfolio movers from the Cara Watch List:

Here are the 5 gainers on the day from the Cara 100, plus KRY.

001d024.gif

Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List gainers (Interactive link)

Lyondell not only beat the consensus earnings estimate ($0.67/share) by a mile ($0.87); the company earnings also considerably improved Y/Y (ie, $0.54/share). Sales revenues jumped from $5 billion to $6.25 billion Y/Y for the 4Q.

Nucor surprised profit-wise, which I described yesterday. Brunswick Corp losses may now be over because the stock received an upgrade. Without pricing power, BC may stay down for a while though. OptionsXpress Holdings did an acquisition that may be very beneficial longer-term. In the near-term, however, trading volumes may suffer with the onset of a Bear.

And that's about all the songwriter wrote for the rather obese lady standing at the mic.


Here are the top 12 losers on the day.

001d025.gif

Interactive charts of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)


Interactive charts of the 52-week Intra-Day Highs or Lows in Cara 100


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 26, 2007 06:54:08 AM | Category: Cara's Bull Board

Discourse

Bill, it is terrific to see you back. I'm not sure that I have anything fresh to add to the discussion on book titles, but I might suggest something like: The Cara Way: Trading and Investing Fundamentals <or some other appropriate noun: wisdom, foundation, disciplines)for Wealth Creation and Preservation.

It is all about the audience. . . and only you and your publisher can make the business decision on that. But to build on the capital and the audience that you have created through this blog, your book will have real appeal to the average investor (like me) PLUS traders can get the special attention they may want in chapters devoted to them.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 7:24 AM [link]

terrific yep, the whole thing with Bill's illness and KRY made me want to join the team!

KRY had fabulous buying from 2.94 to 3.04 late yesterday, however today due to the strong dollar i would not chase p.m. stocks or oilers

Posted by: deacon31 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 8:46 AM [link]

early gaps- up:MSFT WFR CAT BOBJ down: AMGN NTRI BEBE

...us dollar 200 day sma test, as the carry trade unwind is stopped by poor inflation data in japan ...Saudi Finance Minister said that they are sticking to the dollar peg until single Gulf Currency is enacted. ...

major world bourses have held at last tuesday's lows, and bulls should have more fun next week on 'january barometer' window dressing

Posted by: deacon31 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 8:49 AM [link]

ETF Investors nervous about the market but not willing to cash out for fear of missing another leg up in the market can now take advantage of the low volatility and hence low options prices to reduce risk.

For example, instead of investing $44,000 to purchase 1000 shares of QQQQ, you could purchase QQQQ Jan 2009 Leaps at $6.80, cost = $6,800. Invest the $37,200 (44,000 - 6,800) in cash in a 2 year CD at 5.4% (e.g. Netbank.com - not a recommendation, just an example). At maturity, the CD would be worth $41,300 - a gain of $4,126. If your LEAPS expire worthless, you would have lost at most $2674 ($6,800 - $4,126), or, 6% of your capital, or 3% per year. If QQQQ ends higher than $44 at expiration, you will have participated 100% in the rally, minus the paltry 0.15% yield.

If you apply this calculation on other ETFs, the deal sounds even sweeter.

I've decided to take the plunge and write puts on OPXS and WFMI today. Missed out on SLW last week. My AET, MSFT and other put writes expired worthless last Friday.

Bill, it is indeed jolly nice to have you back. Thoroughly enjoyed your recent postings. A name for your book? Since you are always reinforcing the "We Trade Prices" mantra, how about "Trade Stock Prices and make money". Cheesy? Perhaps. But as your publisher will likely say, "We'll do whatever it takes to sell the publication."

Posted by: jragusa [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 8:58 AM [link]

I hate to reiterate what everyone has already said but it good to see you back in the saddle Bill. I don't normally post because of my neophyte status and end up being more of a "blurker," short for blog lurker.
I concur though with jragusa the name should be something along the Trading Prices theme, "Trade Price not Companies," or something to that effect.

Posted by: TcolemanUF [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 9:56 AM [link]

I really like Leisa's suggested title. Classy and appropriately descriptive.

Posted by: tremendous11 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 10:08 AM [link]

Bill -
You should do one of those surveys for how much your readers would pay for exclusive service at a time like this, when we've all felt the effect of your absence.

A comment on book titles. I think it's a given that the book is already sold to your current viewer base, and although coming to an agreement about what defines the Cara way is an important aspect to consider. I almost feel the title should be one that catches the eyes of people who don't already know you.

I personally think the "trading prices not companies" mantra that you've taught and others have suggested as a title is a catchy and simple to understand concept that might acheive this effect - but I don't have any expertise in these matters. If you do narrow it down to a finals list, it might be worth surveying some non-readers for their first reaction.

Maybe this is all a result of recently reading the book Blink by Malcolm Gladwell.

Posted by: rusticuf [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 10:20 AM [link]

FWIW, I really like Leisa's suggested title, too. But we all know the content of the book will be golden in any case.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 10:24 AM [link]

re: Boeing, I think it is important to take into account what is happening vis-a-vis Airbus. Boeing has been eating Airbus' lunch due to operational issues at Airbus the past few years that are in large part a result of the USD/EUR fx rate. With a larger % of Airbus' costs in EUR and revenues in USD, they are being adversely affected by the fall in USD and rise in EUR and Boeing has benefited from this. Anytime you have two dominant firms duking it out in a particular industry and one falters, there is a lot of $ to be made.

Airbus has a lot to be worried out given the outlook for both currencies...

Posted by: sper0032 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 10:29 AM [link]

10:32ET *DJ Venezuela Tax Chief: Crystallex Willing To Pay Taxes Owed

KRY a little strength on this, but overall it's the environmental permit that hasn't been issued since 2002 that shouldn't let it get far

GG solid gap up and hanging firm +1%, AEM SSRI PAAS also strong

Posted by: deacon31 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 11:05 AM [link]

One thing we DO know about the BARTIROMO story, is that CNBC is burying it. A Marketwatch article,
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cnbcs-maria-bartiromo-getting-free/story.aspx?guid=%7B53BD1D52%2D2F1C%2D47F6%2D8DDD%2DD40A55B1043B%7D
notes that in covering the Citgroup story, and the firing of Ms. B's apparent benefactor at Citi,
nary a mention is made about Maria's connection to it! MW is quite critical of CNBC's hiding the facts, and suggests MB appears to be in a conflict of interest of sorts, in her seeming cozying up("entanglement"?) to, and benefiting from the "generosity" of a major Citi exec.

None of this should surprise any of us who already know that CNBC's allegiance is strictly to their advertising sponsors (brokers, etc.), NOT to the
individual investor and his/her best interests.

Fortunately, Bill and some other independent analysts and commentators, have been pointing out CNBC's true nature, with unflattering but deserved nicknames for the network such as "Market Cheerleaders", "Bubblevision", "Tout-TV", "BULL-sh*tters TV" (hey, I just coined that one!), etc.

Is it possible the expected new FOX business channel will do what CNBC does not, i.e. give balanced coverage of the markets and economy (instead of mostly bulls, all of the time)?

Well, judging by FOX news, "balanced coverage" is probably too much to expect.

Posted by: Bob [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 11:09 AM [link]

Also glad to have you back Bill!

Another idea for the cover of your book (I also wasn't thrilled by the sample you posted). I think something simpler, cleaner yet with a message in the graphic would be more appealing:

White cover, title in a plain font like Verdana.
At the bottom a line art drawing of lady justice, with the balance scale being held out in front of her. Only her head/shoulders visible, so scale of graphic is reasonably large.

One one side of the scale an image that portrays We the People: maybe some working people (doctor, construction dude, teacher, etc).

On the other size maybe something representing money, wealth, the market, banks.

Scales tipped in favor of the non-worker.

Lady Justice is wearing the usual blindfold (made of ticker tape? ;), but maybe using her free hand to pull up a corner so she can see the scale.

This is trying to incorporate idea of social equity, capital markets and the idea that odds are not in our favor.

Wish I was an artist so I could put my thoughts on paper for you :)

Posted by: proudPapa [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 11:33 AM [link]

Well, given today's market action, it appears that no one is buying the latest B.S. spin put out by the financial media regarding the state of the housing market:

http://tinyurl.com/3a4rqa

See recent home builder reports for a closer look at the reality behind that headline that is much, much harsher.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 11:35 AM [link]

well----seems like someone else besides me a canadain------------- following kry****** closely have a positive feeling the permit will be granted soon. any one else hae a dollar amount when permit granted. also gold corp buy out??

Posted by: russty1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 12:12 PM [link]

I have a question for Bill and others who are experienced traders:

Who do you trust as a reliable source for generating technical data such as the RSI, CCI, MACD, etc. of stocks on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis?

I have found extreme inconsistencies between different services. Interactive Brokers' real-time charts show me daily RSI-7 values quite different from StockCharts, which is quite different from InvestorTech, which is also somewhat different from Yahoo Finance's new charting software. I find this very frustrating, and would appreciate some guidance on who's numbers to use.

I know Bill likes and obviously trusts InvestorTech, but do others have any thoughts?

Posted by: Fazeli [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 12:36 PM [link]

Fazelli

FWIW, I suggest differences may be due to the length of time on the daily charts you are employing. For example, a daily chart set to 250 days will have a different Daily 7 RSI than one covering 700 days or a 3 year, 5 year or 10 year time period.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 12:53 PM [link]

Seamus,

As a quick comparison, IB's 6 month chart on MU with 1 day values shows an RSI-7 of 14.4 today. Meanwhile, InvesterTech's 6 month chart on MU with daily values shows an RSI-7 of 36.4.
Yahoo also shows 36.4
StockCharts shows 37.5

These were all done with a few seconds of each other.

I guess Yahoo and InvesterTech are accurate, and StockCharts isn't too far off, but I don't understand why IB's values are so different.

Posted by: Fazeli [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 1:20 PM [link]

Regarding Ford, I recall reading a few years back that Ford was unique among auto companies in walking away from a winner. The Taurus, in the years following its release, outsold every other car in its class. But then Ford decided there was more money in trucks, and they ignored their Taurus, allowing everyone else to pass it by.

Yes, huge pension and healthcare sure doesn't help, but management has done many a dumb thing.

A WSJ article a few months back re Fiat: unions there are much more belligerant than here (USA) yet a new management skillfuly managed a brisk turnaround for this recently basket-case company. (though whether it can last is up in the air)

Not to mention the astronomical CEO compensation. Doesn't that sap the moralle of the avg worker? Whether it should or not is debatable, but there's no sense fighting human nature. I think the Fiat guy's compensation was quite modest, in keeping with that of CEOs in many parts of the world, everyplace except you know where.

I'm not exactly sure what someone would do with $210 million. maybe when I near that mark (HA HA) I, too, will find it's not enough, but it's hard to imagine from here.

Posted by: tom sheepngoats [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 2:32 PM [link]

2:13 ET Venezuela Min says govt pondering buying or seizing telecom co; will choose less costly option - DJ :(VNT)(TEF)

KRY downticks, i've been seeing people call VZ a short, it does have a position in venezuela

Posted by: deacon31 [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 2:43 PM [link]

I think Leisa's title suggestion is tops. The word I would choose to replace "Fundamental" is "Wisdom".

Also have to say I'm in the not-crazy-about-the-design camp. I'd prefer a more classic cover design. The version we saw looks too much like a textbook. That observation was made by another (astute!) person; I agree with it.

My uncle was the comptroller of a Fortune 500 company and adored crossword puzzles. He even subscribed to English papers to get their puzzles into his itching hands. I suspect that there is a connection....

Posted by: GemmaStar [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 6:37 PM [link]

Silver plays: Over the last six months, SLW has underperformed HL, SSRI and PAAS.

http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart2:symbol=slw;range=6m;compare=hl+ssri+paas;indicator=volume+rsi(7);charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

Disclosure: Long SLW and HL.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 7:44 PM [link]

Bill,

On the subject of your book, I would weigh in on the side of a simpler title and cover design (maybe even just "Cara"). Can anyone really predict what kind of a title will prompt someone scanning a bookshelf to stop and read? In the end, it's veracity and word-of-mouth that will sell a book. People can spot honesty a mile away. Personally, I would prefer to read something that intersperses autobiographical bites along with your trading perspective, although I don't think that is what you have in mind. In any case, as long as your write from the heart, the book should succeed.

Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 8:58 PM [link]

Thanks for the silver chart, Seamus. Looks like the divergence occurred around nov. 15. Disappointing for slw holders, but only thing i can reason is that other stocks are getting momo play because of buyout prospects. Hopefully gg getting the permit for the Penasquito mine project will give slw shares a boost.

On another note, i primarily hold PM shares but recently bought shares of mosy. They make the chips that are in the nintendo wii. I'm expecting good numbers from them when they report in a couple weeks.

Posted by: mogwai8myball [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 26, 2007 9:56 PM [link]

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