Your health is most important. I wish you the best.

Bill. Just stay in bed and get better. As I say to my wife no point trying to be Mother Theresa. The world will still be here when you are up and about.

Go to bed, Bill. Stay there!

Trust me: we'll all be here when you get back.

We all wish you well.

PS: Thanks for the Citi report posting. Veeeeery interesting.

ALOHA !!

Bill, I hope you are getting well by the second ... God speed!

Off the topic of "oil" but one very near and dear to our hearts ... INFORMATION !!! More precisely the free use of information ...

I wonder if you picked up on this anti-American political wrangling ... I guess "bloggers" are the real problem! HA !!!

They're on to ya my friend! Welcome to the USSR !!!

READ ON:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=ind_focus.story&STORY=/www/story/01-16-2007/0004507242&EDATE=TUE%2BJan%2B16%2B2007,%2B06:34%2BPM

Congress to Send Critics to Jail, Says Richard Viguerie

Congress Wants to Blame the Grassroots for Its Own Corruption

MANASSAS, Va., Jan. 16 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The following is a

statement by Richard A. Viguerie, Chairman of GrassrootsFreedom.com, regarding legislation currently being considered by Congress to regulate grassroots communications:

"In what sounds like a comedy sketch from Jon Stewart's Daily Show, but isn't, the U. S. Senate would impose criminal penalties, even jail time, on grassroots causes and citizens who criticize Congress.

"Section 220 of S. 1, the lobbying reform bill currently before the Senate, would require grassroots causes, even bloggers, who communicate to 500 or more members of the public on policy matters, to register and report quarterly to Congress the same as the big K Street lobbyists. Section 220 would amend existing lobbying reporting law by creating the most expansive intrusion on First Amendment rights ever. For the first time in history, critics of Congress will need to register and report with Congress itself.

"The bill would require reporting of 'paid efforts to stimulate grassroots lobbying,' but defines 'paid' merely as communications to 500 or more members of the public, with no other qualifiers.

"On January 9, the Senate passed Amendment 7 to S. 1, to create criminal penalties, including up to one year in jail, if someone 'knowingly and willingly fails to file or report.'

"That amendment was introduced by Senator David Vitter (R-LA). Senator Vitter, however, is now a co-sponsor of Amendment 20 by Senator Robert Bennett (R-UT) to remove Section 220 from the bill. Unless Amendment 20 succeeds, the Senate will have criminalized the exercise of First Amendment rights. We'd be living under totalitarianism, not democracy.

"I started GrassrootsFreedom.com to fight efforts to silence the grassroots. The website provides updates in the legislation and has a petition to sign opposing Section 220.

"Thousands of nonprofit leaders, bloggers, and other citizens have hammered the Senate with calls in opposition to Section 220, which seeks to silence the grassroots. The criminal provisions will scare citizens into silence.

"The legislation regulates small, legitimate nonprofits, bloggers, and individuals, but creates loopholes for corporations, unions, and large membership organizations that would be able to spend literally hundreds of millions of dollars, yet not report.

"Congress is trying to blame the grassroots, which are American citizens engaging in their First Amendment rights, for Washington's internal corruption problems."

Bill

Our thoughts and prayers go out for your quick recovery.

Forget the blog; think of those warm sunny days in the Bahamas awaiting as you rest and stay hydrated.

Bill, please stay away as long as it takes to rest up and get well.

Kaimu, so let me get this straight: the same Senator who introduced this Orwellian section into the lobbying bill is now the co-sponsor of an amendment to remove it? The folly of people in positions of trust and leadership never ceases to depress me.

Despite the dollar strength and the falling price of oil, Gold and Silver have performed nicely this week. Yesterday Reuters reported 2 Indian companies are going to launch gold exchange funds within months of gaining approval from regulators.

I think g034 is correct and this week may be a good opportunity for PMs. (IMHO)

Otherwise, let's see how long Leisa and MarkM spend in the "woodshed"!

I know everyone else has already said this, but I too want to wish you a swift and complete recovery... Pneumonia is nothing to kid around with... Looking forward to having you back.

PS: KRY is flying...

Leisa,

Short-covering time for KRY...

(looks at everyone with desperate eyes)
"Can i go to lunch now?"

http://tinyurl.com/2k36tk
Venezuela discards to have plans to nationalize mining companies
Friday 19 of January, 2007 12:32 GMT

"Can i go to lunch now?"

No!

<8)

NYUgrad...yes go to lunch, just avoid transfats.

SEamus...we're just smokin drinkin and cussin in that woodshed!

2nd_ave--yes a nice little spike at lunch.

Gold ETF get approval in India.

"We are working to launch the product in about one to one-and-a-half months," said Shah, ED, Benchmark MF

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NEWS/India_Business/Sebi_allows_exchange_traded_fund_for_gold/articleshow/1260178.cms

Learn2Invest

Precision Drilling looks to be in a buy zone here:
PDS pays a nice divy.

I saw on stockhouse.ca that PDS cut their monthly dividend from .31 to .19.

I don't think I agree with you DollarBill. I'd describe a "Buy Zone" as when a number of technical and fundamental factors align. The fact that everybody's dumping PDS may mean the RSI has plummeted, but as moab says, it looks like they have strong motivation to do so. Buying it now strikes me as trying to catch a falling stone. The buy zone may be several days, weeks or months away. IMHO

Yep...bad news on PDS is out. Took a hit today.
oil services biz should improve from here.

By the way ...

While I miss Bill's contribution and wish him a speedy recovery, I'm appreciating the regular posters stepping up to the plate and offering their thoughts.

I agree with Manx on PDS.

It's not a company I care about(afterall we trade prices), but I picked up some April calls on HAL while it was under 29 this a.m. Looks like it's broken it's downtrend on the chart.

WFMI with low RSIs (D, W, M)but just keeps staggering down. GSK has had a decent week.

PMs looking good today. NYUgrad must be back from lunch.

I had breakfast for lunch. hope i didnt cause damage today.

Bill,
Take enought time to get well before you get back to your hectic schedule. Relapses happen frrequently with pneumonia.
Your wisdom is sorely missed, but The Daytrader Bull Blog is becoming a daily must for me!
Sarah-Hadassah

A must read article on derivatives risk:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/92f7ee6a-a765-11db-83e4-0000779e2340.html

Key line: "...monetary policy will be useless".

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz79

Moab...To piggyback on your post, here is something from Project Syndicate, that folks here might find interesting. What I like about PS material is that though it is written by brilliant minds, one needn't have a brilliant mind to understand it.

kaimu,

concerning your earlier post...S1 did pass the senate today, section 220 was removed

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/news2/2007/01/senate_passes_e.html

but, there could be more attempts curtail our freedom on the way...

http://kurtnimmo.com/?p=722

moab, Leisa

Thanks for the posts. It reminds one of the extreme leverage days of Long Term Capital Management and the blowup in 1998.

Book quotes from When Genious Failed:

"Greenspans much-needed liquidity was nowhere to be found, and the damage spread almost at random. Once a typhoon breaks loose in markets, there is no telling where it will go."

". . . .there was no liquidity in credit markets. There never is when everyone wants out at the same time."

Didn't Bill write yesterday about the pin in the credit balloon?

Have a great weekend!

Seamus,

That's an excellent book!

I wonder though...what if the NY Fed had not stepped in? What if William McDonough and Peter Fisher had not knocked those bankers' heads together and forced them to some sort of agreement? How interesting it would have been to see the end result of LTCM truly imploding and pulling down much more than it did.

I wonder what the mad, mad world of derivatives would look like today if all those bankers had been really burned by a full break down in credit markets.

I guess we might find out in the coming years, if moab's excellent link is anything to go on ("monetary will be useless" indeed).

A good weekend to you too.

JIm Puplova interviews Marc Faber at financialsenseonline. Interested readers might find it worth their time to listen.

For those who dont understand how hedge funds can make or break themselves, this is a good 101 read.

http://tinyurl.com/29ywem
So the final investment of 1 million has behind it 20,000 of equity capital and 980,000 of debt. So, if the value/price of the final investment falls by only 2% the entire capital behind it is wiped out. This is a credit house of cards where a dollar of capital is turned into 49 dollars of additional debt to finance an investment of 50.

NYUgrad,

The original article is interesting especially the following ...

Since this message arrived via an anonymous e-mail account, it might be a prank.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/92f7ee6a-a765-11db-83e4-0000779e2340.html

From personal experience most hedge funds are no where as leveraged as this article claims they are. The hedge funds that have survived in this competitive environment pursue fairly safe strategies that result in a good risk to reward ratio. You can bet that the bigger hedge funds have adequate result control, perhaps even better than those of the bigger banks and the chances of them blowing up, are very slim. Once in a while you do have ridiculous 'bet the house' strategies such as those deployed by Amaranth and LTCM. But for the most part these risky strategies are an anomaly.
Its a shame the media chooses to make a scapegoat of hedge funds during times of financial crisis. Perhaps it could be the jealousy brought on by 20 -30 something hedge fund managers making millions and these 'journalists' struggling to make 50k.

I guess this is another eye opener for me as to what to take from written blogs/news articles. there is so much information sometimes i feel its a lose lose scenario. but i have to keep chipping away at this wall and hopefully i will have the ammunition, guts, and insight to just manage my own money full time very soon.

About the refining margins:
My initial take on the study is there well could be variable inversion [dependent Vs independent]. How about the specs show up BECAUSE of the margins? Rather than the other way around.

I would assert, as I did several years ago while being the first secular industry bull in the press {i.e. Grants] that the correlations are highest with "days/inventory" ["If you had only one thing to watch it would be this..." circa '02]. The DOE just last week started including the data in the weekly Wednesday write ups. DOE: "Time series for Days of Supply for crude oil, total gasoline, total distillate fuel, propane, and jet fuel are now available from EIA's web site at: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm . "

As for the summer grades vs. winter grades: the ~ March bump over rfg conversions is such an old phenomena [albeit last year exacerbated by low sulfur regs] that it is surprising what a factor it still can be for the pits. It always can be, but it is so well known I question how fundamentally sustainable it is to over-ride supply/demand fundamentals. They do get over-ridden; it was amazing last Aug when both price and day/inventories were at 5 yr peaks.., but typically eventually reason prevails - just like Kayne's said 'the market can be irrational longer than you can solvent'. Myself, this year, ceteris paribus, I question if refiners can get any upside pop - of course, W could help them by trying to off-take 100k a month to boost the SPR! Which is a cure worse than the poison IMHO!

Oops, I said "rfg conversions", that is true for May-ish, but was thinking seasonally for March/April it's the RVP [winter to summer "reed vapor pressure" combustibility changeover] switch I was thinking of. [Sorry, been traveling late hours and missed the right thought.]