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December 23, 2006

Week #51 (2006-12-23) in Review (FINAL)

Last week I wrote that "little by little the signs are noticeable that this party is almost over and the guests are inching their way to the exit. All that's left is to crown The Greatest Fool."

Then despite a good week in the market that week, I took readers through a downer. This week wasn't a very good one in the North American or U.K. and European stock markets, with more of that to come, so in this Week In Review, being Christmas and all, I'm going to show my kind and gentle side.

Yes, not even a cease and desist order on the blog is going to spoil my holidays. My manuscript is coming along well at 127,000 words, which is two books in one, and as "joec002" quoted from Epictetus: "The greater the difficulty, the more glory in surmounting it. Skillful pilots gain their reputation from storms and tempests."

Could be my epithet epitaph. :-)

If you want to do something bad enough, your goal will be accomplished.

With that out of the way, let's see how the week went.


Global Market Summary

International Equities: Russia and China were very strong equity markets AGAIN this week. But the diverging Money Flow indicators may finally be catching up to some of these markets.

U.S. Equities : All of the four major market indexes (SP500 -1.1 pct; DJIA -0.8 pct; Nasdaq -2.3 pct; and Russell 2000 -1.5 pct) lost ground this week. Except for consumer spending " must be those Wall Street bonuses " the economic data has been universally weak. U.S. economy is growing at an annual rate of about +1 pct.

Dow 30 : There were 20 Dow stocks down and 10 up W/W, but on Friday my eyesight was 30/30 (ie, all were down). The Dow index (at 12343) pulled back another 100 points from its bullish target of 12500. Negative money flow out of stocks and mutual funds may be setting the broad market up for a post-holiday, maybe post year-end, pull-back.

U.S. Sector ETFs: There were 9 ETF's down and 1 up (XLP +0.04 pct W/W), which is a penny. So there were really no winners, and Friday was a bad day all around.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #10 (-4.0 pct); $WTIC dropped -2.6 pct
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #8 (-2.5 pct); Copper was crushed
20: Industrials (XLI): #4 (-0.5 pct); Friday was -0.6 pct. BA hit
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #5 (-0.6 pct); Flat over 2 weeks
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): # (+0.0 pct); Only winner W/W was flat
35: Healthcare (IYH): #3 (-0.3 pct); Friday was -0.6 pct
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #2 (-0.2 pct); Friday was -0.4 pct
45: Tech (SMH chips): #9 (-2.8 pct); CTSH, ADBE, QCOM, ADSK, INTC bad
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #7 (-1.8 pct); T (-1.9 pct), VZ (+0.2 pct)
55: Utilities (XLU): #6 (-1.0 pct); economy is slowing

Bonds: U.S. Bonds had very little action this week. Inversion of the yield curve worsened a bit as the 3-Month Treasury Bill rallied +5 basis points (bp) whereas the yield through the 10-year was flat W/W and the yield on the 30-year T-Bond also lifted +1 bp.

Commodities: $CRB dropped -1.4 pct W/W to 308.16 because of weakness in oil and copper. I think the bigger picture here for six months now is that the U.S. economy started to come unglued with the peaking and softening of the housing industry, which expanded through the economy " first in narrow pockets, but now growing nationally. This is not a time to expect commodity prices to rally.

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were down sharply -2.6 pct (+$1.68) to 62.41. That reversed the week earlier gains of +$2.06/bbl and +3.3 pct.

Gold: $GOLD, $PLAT and $PALL had relatively small gains, offsetting a small loss in $USD. Despite a strong gain Friday (+1.2 pct on the day), $SILVER could move higher on the week (losing -2.7 pct and $0.34) because of losses the prior five days.

Goldminers: $XAU, GDX and XGD (TSX) were down -3.1 pct, -2.9 pct, and -2.6 pct respectively W/W, for a third straight losing week despite the $USD finally taking a break from earlier gains. Traders are probably linking the slowing U.S. economy to all commodities, but I wouldn't. Longer-term, the hard money PM complex ought to rally as and when the $USD starts to slide again.

Forex: This week, the $USD lost -0.3 pct and the Euro gained +0.3 pct to 83.80 and 131.17 respectively. Friday's moves went against the net flow of the week. With central banker holidays, the forex may quiet down.

Economic calendar for next week


Cara Stock Watch

Interactive link to Recent Wall Street upgrades
Here is the Upgrade Summary for Friday.

Interactive link to Recent Wall Street downgrades
Here is a summary for Friday.


Here are the top 25 gainers on Friday.

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Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List gainers

Interactive chart of the next 12 Watch List gainers


Here are the top losers for Friday.

001k013.gif


Interactive chart of the top 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)

Interactive chart of the next 12 Watch List losers (Interactive link)


Cara 100 RSI Highs and Lows c/o "David"

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Interactive link to Friday RSI Highs in Cara 100 (no smoothing)

Interactive link to Friday RSI Lows in Cara 100 (no smoothing)


Sector ETF Review

Only one of the ten sector ETF's I follow here was up this week, and only by 1 penny.

To repeat last week's comment: "; enough individual stocks are being sold into broad market strength that technical resistance is quickly forming."

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLP 26.07 -0.02 -0.08% 0.04% 0.00% 1.32% 11.22% 2.40% 9.03% 9.95%
XLF 36.55 -0.16 -0.44% -0.16% 0.94% 1.30% 13.51% 6.81% 14.83% 13.69%
IYH 66.24 -0.40 -0.60% -0.32% 0.02% 0.90% 4.10% 1.86% 11.09% 3.34%
XLI 35.01 -0.22 -0.62% -0.54% -0.85% -1.30% 10.69% 8.12% 5.61% 10.16%
XLY 38.23 -0.03 -0.08% -0.57% 0.03% 0.74% 15.85% 11.20% 16.17% 15.88%
XLU 36.57 -0.13 -0.35% -1.00% -0.54% 1.02% 14.28% 9.00% 15.65% 15.07%
IYZ 29.08 -0.15 -0.51% -1.82% 0.17% 2.68% 26.60% 4.57% 17.07% 25.56%
XLB 34.49 -0.14 -0.40% -2.49% -2.98% -1.68% 11.55% 10.97% 12.42% 13.34%
SMH 33.29 -0.09 -0.27% -2.83% -2.63% -5.88% -12.21% -0.18% 1.31% -11.70%
XLE 58.59 -0.57 -0.96% -3.97% -2.79% 1.82% 11.18% 14.14% 12.20% 14.01%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.


10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB)ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU



Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

XLE plungd -3.97 pct W/W to close Friday at 59.59 taking the price level back to November. A week ago XLE was the number two best performer.

A week ago, with $WTIC moving over the $64 mark, most of these oils strengthened, and this week with the Crude Light contracts dropping $1.68/bbl, the previously over-bought oil stocks sagged. Friday they were off -1.0 pct on the day.

Traders seem nervous, and I think rightly so. The slowing U.S. econ is clearly showing in the data. Canada's economy is now believed to have outright contracted in September and stayed unchanged in October.

The only thing exciting in the Alberta oilfields, other than the cost of electricians and housing and so forth, which is through the roof, is the take-over speculation. There are many Cdn energy trusts with high yields that have been basically a return OF capital, so without a tax sweetener to help harvest cash from unwitting share buyers, many of these companies may have to merge. This is an area that needs managing by you if you hold these trusts. BMO, RBC and a few other broker-dealers have pretty good research.

Speaking of b-d research I have been providing, I decided to seek an industry solution before I antagonize the players. In one case where I believed I had been authorized, apparently there was an internal kerfuffle and the head legal guy sent me a demand for an explanation or a demand to remove a related series of reports I had uploaded.

No problem, mon. I'll be in Bahamas soon anyway, where they'll have to put on their scuba gear to find me. I josh of course.

I'll be disappointed for society at large if I can't manage to pull together a few of the top financial services firms who can see the obvious public service merit in my running a very few of the many reports these firms happen to issue. I have pushed the envelope here. If they want to make a Supreme Court case, so be it; however, let's first understand all sides of the issues.

"MarkM" says: "Looks like a review of the Fair Use doctrine is in order by your "legal team". Certainly I see copyright marks and language on these documents so a good understanding of legal rights and responsibilities in this area seems very prudent; Here is a link to a short, balanced discussion of the Doctrine. The 4-part test seems reasonable to me."

As I see it (and I'm obviously biased), the four-part test can be answered (superficially) as follows:


(1) The use was clearly intended and widely understood to be for non-profit educational purposes.
(2) The copyrighted work (i) is often desired by analysts and in some cases by the firms themselves to be widely distributed (ii) is often dated "news" or "facts" and contains "opinions" that are already widely disseminated to the public, (iii) are known and accepted by the authors to be widely circulated inside the financial community and outside the firm's clientele, and (iv) has no sales price attached to it like a book or a movie or piece of music.
(3) A single copyrighted item represents but a small part of an entire research system of the firms involved and it is the value of the research system that the authors would argue is potentially compromised. In fact, the whole of a single copyrighted piece is required to be made available by me because there are necessary legal disclosures that the authors and myself (being very experienced as a high level ex-registrant in this industry), know to be crucially important industry foundation structures.
(4) The value of the public's holding the copyrighted reports I used is clearly intended and widely understood to be highly complementary and in no way demeaning to the author. It could even be argued by industry professionals that its dissemination helps bring more of the public into the capital markets.

At the end of the day, it is the industry's call. Some firms will allow me to proceed and others will deny me the opportunity. Now that they all have seen what I would like to do, and what the public wants, they have to make a decision.

To sum up, regardless of how the law might play out here, I have already stated that I will remove every report of any firm that asks me to do it. I am trying to advocate social equity here, not venture into legal waters or antagonize in any way the companies involved.

I am hopeful that some of the major firms agree to a pre-agreed program of releasing to me a couple reports each month that I can compile in an overall program of education, information and facilitation that is free to the public. This should be a win-win for the industry and for society.

If you happen to be a decision maker in your financial services firm who reads this, or is sent this item by one of your staff, please contact me and let me know your views, and help me take this to the next level " one way or another.
BCara@BillCara.com

Now, let's get back to the WIR sans industry research:


Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Monthly Data

XLE Weekly data:


XLE Weekly Data

XLE Daily data:

XLE Daily Data

XLE Hourly data:

XLE Hourly Data

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
PBR 98.13 -0.09 -0.09% 0.50% -0.09% 8.43% 31.33% 27.99% 22.95% 40.63%
CEO 88.01 -0.58 -0.65% -2.05% -0.71% 0.18% 27.20% 7.38% 16.82% 27.37%
XOM 75.41 -0.46 -0.61% -2.45% -0.12% 4.19% 28.97% 16.18% 30.08% 32.07%
TOT 70.46 -1.42 -1.98% -2.84% -1.14% -0.13% -45.83% 10.01% 14.66% -44.97%
CVX 72.73 -0.50 -0.68% -3.52% -0.14% 5.65% 23.10% 17.42% 23.99% 27.35%
SU 77.91 -0.76 -0.97% -3.70% -1.69% 1.64% 18.89% 15.73% 9.13% 23.28%
STO 26.27 0.32 1.23% -4.92% -3.42% -0.94% 8.87% 11.46% 2.42% 16.03%
IMO 35.69 -0.36 -1.00% -5.23% -7.30% -2.78% -65.68% 9.08% 7.44% -64.66%
ECA 46.88 -0.69 -1.45% -6.26% -11.21% -8.67% 0.39% 4.64% -4.25% 1.89%

Of the ten oil stocks I monitor, all except Petro Brazil were down on the week. Call it an ugly week.


Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

A week ago I wrote: "Neither IMO ("2.2 pct) nor ECA (-4.5 pct) had a good day Friday in the face of the broker downgrades. That ruined their week. Chief complaint is that cost inflation in Alberta is going to hurt future value. That seems like a long-term concern and the price drop was rather immediate " to ECA and IMO, but not to SU, which is also a major Alberta player. AG Edwards apparently still considers ECA a Buy (with a 12-month US$59 PT) although they did note that EnCana lowered its production growth and budget to generate free cash flow."

This week, ECA plunged a further -6.3 pct, IMO -5.2 pct and SU -3.7 pct. Ouch!



Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)


The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) dropped -2.5 pct W/W to end up #8 performer of 10, closing Friday at 34.49. Copper futures dropped -5.4 pct. That's a sign of further econ weakness as $COPPER has been dropping for six months or more. Technicians have noted the lower cycle highs and lower lows.


Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLB Monthly data:

XLB Monthly Data

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Weekly Data

XLB Daily data:

XLB Daily Data

XLB Hourly data:

XLB Hourly Data


Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
MT 41.69 -0.21 -0.50% -0.41% -1.79% 0.00% 55.39% 25.12% 32.56% 59.37%
PKX 82.60 -1.24 -1.48% -1.55% 4.77% 7.27% 64.38% 30.88% 37.32% 63.21%
GGB 15.86 0.18 1.15% -1.98% -3.06% 1.93% -8.90% 22.47% 18.89% -4.17%
TS 49.87 -0.53 -1.05% -2.25% 7.06% 8.25% 101.82% 40.08% 41.00% 111.58%
RIO 29.22 0.04 0.14% -2.34% -0.14% 7.62% 35.91% 45.81% 30.74% 41.91%
BHP 38.77 -0.22 -0.56% -3.99% -4.58% -4.84% 10.77% 5.58% -5.02% 17.70%
AA 29.24 -0.06 -0.20% -5.80% -6.01% -4.79% -2.21% 6.37% -2.50% -0.31%
RTP 206.72 -0.97 -0.47% -6.19% -4.03% -1.87% 9.49% 13.63% 0.90% 13.63%
NUE 55.17 -0.48 -0.86% -6.79% -15.84% -6.22% 59.08% 17.46% 10.94% 64.10%
TCK 72.01 -0.69 -0.95% -8.48% -4.97% -5.50% 20.50% 18.83% 0.00% 0.00%

Ten of 10 metals and steel stocks and 8 of 10 gold stocks were down this week. The worst were Teck Cominco (-8.5 pct W/W), Nucor Steel (-6.8 pct) and Rio Tinto (-6.2 pct). That is a significant bashing. Alcoa was down -5.8 pct on the week so I guess they won't be buying a hometown hockey team or ice rink for Sidney Crosby.

Cameco (CCJ) had some good news.


Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)


The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was a loser this week, down -0.5 pct W/W to 35.01.

The Dow Transports (DJT) this week caved in. The great American hope Fedex plunged -6.6 pct W/W, so now FDX is down -5.3 pct over 6 months and up just +3.1 pct over 12 months.

What happened to those TH's who put their faith in FDX in flying higher. That's not Tom Hanks " he knows better. I recall Tom was a Fedex cast away.

Anyway, you can say the U.S. economy is the greatest story never told, which may fool some of the people some of the time, but if there is no freight to carry, you won't fool them long.

This Friday, DJT closed at 4510.50. The Transports are sputtering.

001k005.gif



The Dow Transports Average ETF is IYT. That's an ETF chart you have to watch because it gives you insights to the status of the U.S. economy. When the economy is moving, goods are moving and the transports are carrying them.

Houston, seems we have a problem.


Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Monthly Data

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Weekly Data

XLI Daily data:

XLI Daily Data

XLI Hourly data:

XLI Hourly Data


Table 4 Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
ABB 17.45 -0.14 -0.80% 2.47% 2.83% 8.32% 71.25% 32.50% 43.15% 87.63%
HON 44.63 -0.13 -0.29% 2.32% 5.06% 4.37% 19.14% 10.91% 14.14% 16.50%
GE 37.57 -0.20 -0.53% 0.56% 6.52% 5.27% 6.22% 9.22% 13.03% 6.07%
UTX 62.56 -0.20 -0.32% 0.18% -3.34% -5.20% 10.67% 0.42% 1.08% 8.14%
MMM 78.35 -0.46 -0.58% 0.05% -0.27% -3.45% -0.96% 7.23% -1.56% -0.37%
CAT 60.59 -0.22 -0.36% -1.99% -4.43% -3.63% 4.83% -3.47% -16.17% 3.66%
BA 88.76 -1.18 -1.31% -2.14% -1.52% -1.13% 26.19% 14.90% 5.59% 24.45%
FDX 107.47 -1.07 -0.99% -6.60% -6.79% -8.43% 4.02% 1.36% -5.30% 3.07%
ERJ 40.50 -0.10 -0.25% -6.81% -2.34% -4.59% 3.16% 2.09% 16.08% 2.04%

In addition to Fedex taking a noser, Brazil's Embraer as well as Boeing were down -6.8 pct and -2.1 pct W/W respectively. Seems like nothing was flying even if the aircraft avoided Denver.

But in addition to some cruise ship lines I know are meeting their challenges, it seems that sales and profits are growing rapidly at (Cara 100) sea shipper Teekay LNG Partners (Bahamas). So too are acquisitions.



Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down -0.60 pct W/W to close at 38.23, back where it was two weeks ago.


Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLY Monthly data:

XLY Monthly Data

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Weekly Data

XLY Daily data:

XLY Daily Data

XLY Hourly data:

XLY Hourly Data

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
TM 131.91 1.84 1.41% 4.89% 8.13% 11.21% 23.45% 23.27% 30.79% 28.35%
NKE 99.94 -0.35 -0.35% 4.05% 2.99% 3.32% 16.28% 15.72% 19.16% 15.89%
CCL 48.87 -0.19 -0.39% 2.47% 3.34% -3.25% -10.45% 9.33% 19.34% -9.28%
JCP 79.57 1.21 1.54% 0.05% 3.43% -1.53% 40.96% 19.49% 17.57% 45.60%
DIS 34.16 -0.38 -1.10% -0.41% -0.67% 3.80% 40.00% 13.56% 16.67% 41.22%
WHR 81.71 -0.09 -0.11% -0.70% -4.81% -4.71% -1.16% -6.88% 1.72% -2.92%
SBUX 35.83 -0.56 -1.54% -1.62% -1.62% -1.32% 16.07% 5.35% -0.72% 16.41%
BC 31.59 -0.05 -0.16% -2.17% -2.95% -3.54% -22.61% 2.87% -6.32% -21.61%
EBAY 30.22 -0.66 -2.14% -8.20% -4.82% -9.41% -32.03% 15.74% 0.70% -31.75%

Seems nothing is running these days except Lexus/Toyota and Nike. TM and NKE were up on the week +4.9 pct and +4.1 pct. And Mickey A's Carnival (CCL) was cruising (+2.5 pct W/W).

Sure hope a sleigh and some reindeer get through.

Did you see a poll where something like 20 pct of adults believe in Santa? I didn't know CNBC had that many viewers. (lol) I thought they were kinda on the outs. Nice new website though.

Tell me, why do they call it a blog? I don't call mine a dummied down TV broadcaster hype site.

Anyway, the Cruise Lines known as Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) are back in the good books at Banc of America Securities.

But Europe is where it's happening for CCL.

In spite of being new top dog, Toyota says the company and the industry will see some dog days in 2007.

Management so-called 'pigs at the trough' at firms like Pfizer and Home Depot are finding increasing shareholder hostility. Home Depot's Bob Nardelli certainly didn't impress a cadre of analysts and buy-siders at this year's AGM.

This debate will certainly balloon in 2007 if managers can be terminated for non-performance and yet be sent packing with compensation worth $200 million, like Pfizer's Hank McKinnell.



Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) closed flat, just like last week. Only last week XLP was down a penny (-0.04 pct), and this week up a penny (+0.04) to close at 26.07.

Penny up. Penny down. Such awe-inspiring action!

But the old folks are going to party at Christmas; WAG as up +4.9 pct W/W.

But they're not buying their party food at Whole Foods Markets (-2.8 pct W/W).

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLP Monthly data:

XLP Monthly Data

XLP Weekly data:


XLP Weekly Data

XLP Daily data:


XLP Daily Data


XLP Hourly data:


XLP Hourly Data

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
WAG 46.68 0.72 1.57% 4.90% 6.99% 14.81% 2.84% -0.47% 7.06% 3.53%
BUD 48.90 -0.05 -0.10% 0.95% 2.30% 5.66% 11.98% 3.71% 7.47% 11.52%
ABV 48.78 0.16 0.33% 0.45% 2.63% 4.63% 26.57% 11.62% 26.37% 29.63%
DEO 78.35 0.79 1.02% 0.41% 1.16% 2.22% 31.55% 9.40% 16.54% 33.61%
PEP 63.10 -0.29 -0.46% 0.37% -0.27% 1.22% 5.59% -1.84% 5.13% 6.55%
PG 63.80 -0.25 -0.39% -0.48% -0.14% 0.42% 8.54% 3.22% 14.23% 8.54%
MO 84.78 -0.94 -1.10% -0.50% -0.06% 1.23% 13.07% 2.99% 17.39% 10.33%
KO 48.38 -0.28 -0.58% -1.12% -1.08% 3.11% 18.29% 9.98% 12.85% 17.20%
WMT 45.54 -0.17 -0.37% -1.96% -1.75% -4.93% -1.49% -5.69% -6.06% -6.30%
WFMI 47.68 -0.46 -0.96% -2.81% -2.45% -3.03% -38.16% -19.58% -23.25% -37.88%

Last week I wrote: "Walgreens and AmBev scored well for a second straight week. Pills and beer. I wonder."

This week it was Walgreens, Ambev and Budweiser leading the Staples. More retailing of pills and beer. Hmm.


Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF lost 21 cents (-0.32 pct W/W) to close Friday at 66.24. A week earlier, the gain was 23 cents. Once again the whole week's loss was Friday.

Maybe the institutions empty or fill up on the weekend? Do you think?


Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Monthly Data

IYH Weekly data:


IYH Weekly Data

IYH Daily data:


IYH Daily Data

IYH Hourly data:


IYH Hourly Data

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
UNH 53.45 -0.48 -0.89% 6.71% 7.09% 14.43% -13.41% 9.15% 20.30% -16.16%
BMY 26.00 -0.05 -0.19% 1.52% 2.56% 6.25% 11.88% 3.75% 1.44% 13.69%
PFE 25.97 -0.10 -0.38% 1.29% 3.18% -3.42% 9.21% -7.78% 14.66% 7.94%
GSK 52.39 0.25 0.48% 0.81% -0.25% 1.43% 2.81% -2.96% -3.69% 2.79%
AET 43.27 -0.23 -0.53% 0.16% 2.10% 4.37% -7.99% 12.92% 7.50% -10.34%
DNA 80.35 -0.12 -0.15% -0.54% -3.65% -0.30% -14.52% 2.40% 4.49% -14.88%
JNJ 65.65 -0.35 -0.53% -0.97% -0.45% -0.30% 6.52% 2.64% 7.31% 7.06%
NVS 57.69 -0.17 -0.29% -1.55% 0.00% -1.79% 7.89% -1.20% 10.33% 10.92%
AMGN 68.71 -0.48 -0.69% -2.15% -1.73% -5.27% -14.50% -3.08% 5.76% -15.27%
BMET 40.97 -0.09 -0.22% -2.45% 2.68% 8.41% 11.09% 27.16% 16.43% 12.25%

United Health was more than healthy " lifting +6.7 pct on the week. But Amgen and Biomet were down over -2 pct.



Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) lost -0.2 pct this week to close at 36.55, but the loss on Friday (-0.44 pct) carried the week.


Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Monthly Data

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Weekly Data

XLF Daily data:

XLF Daily Data

XLF Hourly data:

XLF Hourly Data

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
CSR 59.15 -0.11 -0.19% 2.76% 6.25% 7.66% 10.87% 15.73% -1.00% 40.13%
LEH 76.86 -0.45 -0.58% 1.00% -0.22% 0.37% 18.36% 8.45% 21.52% 19.51%
C 54.55 -0.21 -0.38% 0.89% 5.21% 8.43% 10.67% 10.20% 13.24% 10.90%
MS 79.70 -1.09 -1.35% 0.56% 1.39% 0.95% 36.36% 11.03% 32.81% 0.00%
HBC 90.90 -0.07 -0.08% -0.56% 0.78% -3.28% 11.29% 0.08% 4.88% 11.66%
DB 131.93 -1.44 -1.08% -0.73% 0.78% 0.63% 32.65% 11.63% 23.55% 34.51%
MER 90.88 -0.13 -0.14% -0.74% 0.35% -1.85% 32.75% 16.33% 33.86% 31.67%
GS 198.09 -0.01 -0.01% -0.88% -3.42% -1.74% 53.71% 18.25% 33.56% 54.77%
JPM 47.87 -0.78 -1.60% -0.89% 2.37% 1.27% 19.11% 2.24% 16.56% 19.53%
UBS 59.10 -0.99 -1.65% -2.70% -1.48% -3.51% 19.76% 0.25% 11.61% 23.23%

The Credit Suisse was up +2.8 pct but the UBS Suisse stumbled -2.7 pct W/W. Maybe the latter were watching Rocky Balboa and wondered: could it be? (inside joke)

Two of my favorite banks on the slopes of the Alps headed in different directions.

UBS shares were down, but they say that investors are down-right confident.

Citi and Lehman, two more favorites, up +0.9 pct and +1.0 pct, whereas JP and the "Gold"man slipped -0.9 pct.

I see that Citi is banking on a new deal in Chile.

Wealth management and M&A are great businesses. Maybe they should buy the Web; they seem to own everything else. I'll sell them my public service blog for a Dollar. I'm sure they could flip it for a Buck. (lol)



Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) had a bad week, dropping -2.83 pct W/W to close Friday at 33.29.

Not enough electronic smarts under the tree I guess. Actually, probably too many in the family. People seem to be saving, not spending this year.


Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Monthly Data

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Weekly Data

SMH Daily data:

SMH Daily Data

SMH Hourly data:

SMH Hourly Data

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
SAP 52.17 -0.45 -0.86% 1.05% 1.54% -0.63% 13.54% 7.26% 1.70% 13.76%
SNDK 42.03 -0.42 -0.99% -1.13% -4.67% -12.03% -37.92% -24.11% -19.47% -32.00%
CSCO 26.93 -0.36 -1.32% -2.29% -0.19% 0.34% 54.33% 17.70% 36.77% 55.75%
ORCL 17.11 0.01 0.06% -3.22% -3.88% -12.70% 35.79% -2.45% 19.40% 38.88%
INFY 52.93 -0.59 -1.10% -3.31% -3.73% -1.18% 31.60% 14.84% 47.73% 28.28%
INTC 20.08 -0.29 -1.42% -4.11% -2.90% -6.99% -21.47% 5.30% 10.03% -22.68%
ADSK 40.04 -0.35 -0.87% -4.23% -4.71% -3.70% -6.34% 10.94% 14.63% -11.28%
QCOM 37.81 -0.74 -1.92% -4.28% -4.38% 0.61% -14.07% -0.13% -8.63% -14.82%
ADBE 40.75 -0.61 -1.47% -4.81% 4.76% -1.90% 5.79% 9.96% 32.35% 8.81%
CTSH 76.06 -1.39 -1.79% -5.45% -5.77% -4.63% 50.05% 4.71% 17.36% 45.57%

Only SAP had any strength this week. Go figure.

There were as many knockdowns in the tech sector this week as in the latest Rocky Balboa movie: CTSH, ADBE, QCOM, ADSK and INTC " all good fighters " were put down over -4 pct this week by somebody new called Money Flow.

RIMM ($130.00) dropped -3.70 pct W/W after reporting fine profits and guiding higher. But the S&P analyst must have lost his Pearl. S&P hammered the stock.

RBC Capital upped the Target Price (+3.6 pct) to US$145 and says they are keeping their faith in RIMM.

Here is the Upgrade Summary for Friday.">Micron Tech shares showed an ability to rally.


Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) lost -1.82 pct W/W to close at 29.08. That's ok because the prior couple of weeks, this sector really moved up strongly.

AT&T (T) was down this week -1.91 pct, and Verizon (VZ) was up +0.19 pct.

Good dividend payers, but the thing about Total Return (TR) is that there is a price component. Now that VZ and T are up in 12 months by over +19 pct and +42 pct respectively, how does TR keep working?

These companies could raise the dividend another +2 pct a year and these stocks could still end up 2007 with a negative TR.

I love the Long Base pattern of T, but the stock has enjoyed a big run this year and the Monthly RSI-7 is up near 90.

Caroling, caroling now we go ; Alarm bells ringing. Caroling, caroling thru the snow ; Alarm bells ringing... ding dong, ding dong; the telco bells are ringing; Following, following yonder star;


Here's the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Monthly Data

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Weekly Data

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Daily Data

IYZ Hourly data:

IYZ Hourly Data



Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) were down -1.00 pct to close at 36.57. A little technical resistance on the Money Flow is showing up here. But my favorite Exelon (EXC) has had quite a run over 3 years.


Here's the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Monthly Data

XLU Weekly data:


XLU Weekly Data

XLU Daily data:

XLU Daily Data

XLU Hourly data:

XLU Hourly Data



Bond & Interest Rate Review

This week the U.S. Treasury yield curve sagged again as the 3-month T-Bills lifted in yields by +5 basis points while the rest of the curve was largely unmoved.

Bonds were quiet. So was Forex. Traders are on vacation. They will be next week as well.

Me, I stuck around to finish a manuscript, and the WIR.

Btw, the TIP's have taken quit a tumble this month, with a loss of a further -0.50 pct this week to move to 99.35. With an economy in the U.S. headed rapidly toward recession, inflation is not much of a worry.


Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

TNX0X Weekly Data

IRX0X Weekly Data


Interactive Daily data charts:


TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data


Interactive Hourly data charts:


TNX0X Daily Data

IRX0X Daily Data


US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month 4.82 4.79 4.79 4.93
6 Month 4.87 4.87 4.84 4.93
2 Year 4.71 4.71 4.60 4.76
3 Year 4.61 4.61 4.49 4.66
5 Year 4.56 4.55 4.44 4.59
10 Year 4.59 4.58 4.48 4.60
30 Year 4.72 4.70 4.60 4.68
Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 3.53 3.52 3.52 3.53
2yr AAA 3.52 3.50 3.50 3.52
2yr A 3.50 3.51 3.51 3.50
5yr AAA 3.57 3.55 3.54 3.56
5yr AA 3.58 3.57 3.56 3.56
5yr A 3.61 3.61 3.60 3.60
10yr AAA 3.67 3.67 3.72 3.67
10yr AA 3.66 3.64 3.74 3.64
10yr A 3.79 3.79 3.85 3.67
20yr AAA 4.09 4.09 4.18 4.07
20yr AA 4.07 4.06 4.08 4.09
20yr A 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.09
Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 5.03 5.03 4.94 5.10
2yr A 5.13 5.13 5.02 5.15
5yr AAA 5.08 5.12 5.02 5.19
5yr AA 5.08 5.07 4.97 5.15
5yr A 5.17 5.17 5.05 5.21
10yr AAA 5.42 5.50 5.39 5.58
10yr AA 5.35 5.34 5.26 5.36
10yr A 5.41 5.38 5.28 5.42
20yr AAA 5.77 5.75 5.71 5.81
20yr AA 6.02 6.01 5.95 5.99
20yr A 5.91 5.89 5.79 5.87

Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts


SHY Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For SHY

001r001.gif


IEF Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For IEF

001r002.gif


TLT Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TLT

001r003.gif


AGG Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For AGG

001r005.gif


LQD Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For LQD

001r004.gif


TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Monthly Data For TIP

001r006.gif


Notes:

1. The Lehman Brothers US Aggregate Index covers the total fixed-rate, nonconvertible US investment-grade bond market, excluding municipals. It is market-cap weighted and includes over 6,500 issues. The Treasury components of this index are broken down into several sub-indexes including the 1-3 Year Treasury, 7-10 Year Treasury and 20+ Year Treasury Indexes.

2. The Lehman Brothers US Treasury Inflation Notes Index is not included in the Aggregate Index. The indexes rebalance monthly to help maintain maturity range targets.

3. The data used in these inserts is as of Sept 30.



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts


SHY Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For SHY

IEF Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For IEF

TLT Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TLT

AGG Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For AGG

LQD Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For LQD

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Weekly Data For TIP



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts


SHY Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For SHY

IEF Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For IEF

TLT Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For TLT

AGG Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For AGG

LQD Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For LQD

TIP Hourly data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Hourly Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
AGG 100.51 -0.09 -0.09% 0.22% -0.01% -0.22% -0.13% 0.45% 3.44% -0.11%
SHY 80.28 0.00 0.00% 0.14% 0.14% 0.02% -0.05% -0.02% 1.01% -0.15%
IEF 83.11 -0.33 -0.40% -0.05% -0.20% -0.44% -0.94% -0.18% 4.04% -0.74%
TLT 89.39 -0.69 -0.77% -0.38% -0.94% -1.36% -2.60% -0.25% 6.93% -2.03%
TIP 99.35 -0.41 -0.41% -0.50% -1.25% -1.00% -3.58% -1.65% 0.62% -3.28%
CFC 41.36 0.26 0.63% -0.84% 3.76% 1.52% 18.31% 18.00% 11.57% 16.28%
FNM 59.68 -0.68 -1.13% -1.03% 0.15% 3.99% 22.45% 11.53% 26.79% 24.20%
FRE 67.99 -0.39 -0.57% -1.45% -0.85% 1.06% 4.12% 5.95% 18.80% 1.57%


Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Weekly Data Charts FRE




Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE



Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Hourly Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Hourly Data Charts FRE



Commodities Review

The $CRB index dropped -1.43 pct W/W to close at 308.16, which is a loss of -4.48.

The current price is now below the 50-day Moving Average (310.69), and well below the more important 200-d MA (329.32).

Last week I noted, "As long as the current price is below the 200d MA, I think the Fed will not tighten " they'll just use their bully pulpit to talk you into worrying about inflation."

Now with the $CRB below the 50-d MA, there are calls for a loosening. Wouldn't bother me because that would help $GOLD.

This index lost because of falling Copper and Crude Oil prices this week. That tends to happen with a U.S. economy headed toward recession.


Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:


CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart


Oil:

$WTIC had a loss of -$1.68/bbl (-2.6 pct W/W) to close at $62.41.

The new 50-Day Moving Average is 60.84, while the 200-Day MA is 67.52.
It appears the current price will soon test the support at 60.84.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Weekly Chart

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Gold:


$GOLD lifted slightly by +3.20 (+0.52 pct W/W) to $622.30. The 50d MA is at 622.94, so that represents technical resistance. The more important 200d MA is at 617.74, which is support.

I don't have a view right now because the markets are quiet, including the $USD.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.


$SILVER had another bad week, losing $0.34 (-2.66 pct W/W) to close at $12.64.

The 50-day MA $SILVER is now 12.91 and the 200-day MA is 12.09, so the current price (12.64) is now below the 50-day MA, which is a technical negative.


Interactive 60-minute data


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.



$PLAT gained +$19.60 (+1.77 pct W/W) to 1127.80.

The 50-Day MA for $PLAT is now 1136.84 and the 200-Day MA is 1171.52, so the current price (1127.80), although improved on the week, is still below both the 50-day and 200-day MA.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.



$PALL recovered a bit this week, but not enough. $PALL gained +2.17 (+0.67 pct W/W) to close Friday at 325.96. But a week ago it lost -9.19.

The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages for $PALL are 328.63 and 333.55 respectively, so $PALL (325.96) is still BELOW both the 50-day MA and 200-day MA.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


$COPPER plunged -16.25 (that's on the 2,000 lb contracts) (or -5.39 pct W/W) to close at 285.40. The contracts have dropped -$31.80 in three weeks.

The 50-day MA is 321.43, and the 200-Day MA is 326.16, so $COPPER (285.40) is technically quite bearish.

Earlier in the month I pointed out: "Point & Figure charts have been indicating a bearish objective at $268.00, after a Dec 6 chart breakdown occurred. From a Dow Theory perspective, there has been a series of lower highs and lower lows in the copper price cycle for six months." So, the writing has been on the wall.



Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities

This week, only Gold Fields had any pop (+1.3 pct W/W). The group had many losers.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
GFI 18.50 0.09 0.49% 1.26% 2.55% 6.14% -4.00% 3.53% -9.09% 8.19%
LIHRY 40.75 0.34 0.84% 0.02% -10.54% -7.20% 17.50% 0.59% -13.85% 70.64%
AUY 12.54 0.26 2.12% -0.87% -2.03% 7.73% 75.38% 37.20% 37.35% 106.59%
AEM 40.12 0.19 0.48% -1.59% -3.60% -3.00% 82.03% 32.02% 34.50% 107.88%
ABX 29.90 -0.11 -0.37% -1.81% -0.70% 0.50% 3.75% 2.08% 7.25% 10.25%
BVN 26.95 0.19 0.71% -2.14% -4.36% -3.06% -8.83% -1.79% 2.71% -4.94%
GG 27.16 0.20 0.74% -3.03% -7.05% -3.65% 12.23% 20.12% -0.33% 31.08%
MDG 27.11 0.18 0.67% -3.39% -8.20% -9.51% 13.15% 11.89% -7.13% 26.74%
KGC 11.37 -0.13 -1.13% -3.81% -7.56% -4.05% 14.96% -4.53% 16.62% 28.77%
NEM 45.02 -0.15 -0.33% -5.20% -4.03% -1.16% -21.21% 2.83% -9.07% -13.36%


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive 15-minute data
Interactive 60-minute data
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data



The goldminer indexes and ETF's all took losses this week, and we're creamed once again. Last week I wrote: "I think this is end of the week short covering in the $USD, but maybe not." Well, $USD actually lost ground, and gold gained a bit, but that didn't help the gold miner stocks.

$XAU, GDX and (TSE's) XGD were down on the week -3.11 pct, -2.86 pct, and -2.55 pct respectively. That's a string of three bad weeks.

The $XAU index, currently at 138.49, is now below the 50d-MA (138.61) and 200d-MA (139.84). That's a negative.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:


Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index - Daily Chart

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Weekly Data Chart

GDX Daily data:

GDX Daily Data Chart

GDX Hourly data:

GDX Hourly Data Chart

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

XGD Weekly Data Chart

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

XGD Daily Data Chart



Forex Review

Two weeks ago, the previous $USD plunge was arrested and $USD closed that week at 83.32, which was a gain of +0.85 (+1.03 pct). Then a week ago, $USD closed at 84.05, a gain of +0.73 (+0.88 pct). So I wrote that "Dollar Bull traders are getting a little cocky. They are openly saying that Hank Paulson has zero chance of convincing the Chinese to liberate the Yuan (which would push the $USD down). We'll see. But, I think the USD issues are so much bigger than the Yuan."

Nobody knows how currencies are going to play out, but I happen to be a Dollar Bear because I believe:

(i) the U.S. economy is presently weakening faster than Europe, Japan, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China), and Southeast Asia, which happen to total more than half the world's population,

(ii) U.S. consumers that are increasingly falling below the poverty line, hence more likely to buy less expensive foreign made goods, which is having an increasing burden on the U.S. economy,

(iii) long-term investment capital is rapidly flowing from the U.S. into BRIC, which is the reason for relatively faster economic growth there in the past, present and future,

(iv) the Muslim world is flowing its long-term investment capital into UAE and Dubai in particular,

(v) global commodities, like oil and iron ore, are increasingly being transacted not in USD, causing a general shift out of USD, and

(vi) a health and social cost burden of the U.S. that threatens to overwhelm the economy with money demands, requiring in future an enormous printing of money that if it doesn't happen will lead to civil strife.



Money is currently being printed at an excessive rate in the U.S., but for the wrong reasons. Money growth needs to create wealth faster, otherwise the economy has problems.

Here is a note sent in by "Seamus": M3 update as of 12/22/2006. "M3 continues to RISE. I think Bernanke will need new printing presses (and helicopter) for 2007."

These pressures will not abate until the U.S. Administration decides to direct the resources of its military-industrial complex inward for matters like homeland security, renewable energy, space science, education of its own citizens, highways, bridges, ports, Internet, and so forth.

In the immediate term, the $USD 50-Day MA is 84.73, and the 200-Day MA is 85.91, so the current price (83.80) is technically bearish. I believe there is a small measure of technical support at 82.35, and more in the 80-81 range.

Should there be a $USD breakdown into the 70's in the next six months, there would be upward pressure on gold taking it into new cycle highs, eg, the 750 level or higher. I expect to see that as the U.S. Democrats begin, after Congress returns following the holidays, to address the social and healthcare issues facing the nation. If there are no new taxes levied, then I see the $USD breaking down in the 1H07.


Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:


Weekly U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:


Daily U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly Chart


The Euro (priced in USD) gained on the week +0.33 pct W/W, closing at 131.17. The test of 130, which had been expected, is now, I believe, complete. I think the Euro will be headed back up, soon to test technical resistance at 132.18, which is the prior Daily price data cycle high (see stockcharts.com chart).

The British Pound gained +0.28 pct W/W to close at 195.66, which, like the moves in the USD and Euro, was not much. But this is a quiet holiday market.

The JPY had another terrible week, which at 11 session days and counting has dropped the Yen to 84.07. The decline in the Yen is really helping the Japanese exporters and auto makers like Toyota (TM). During the Yen plunge, TM is up +4.89 pct this week, +11.21 pct over 4 weeks and +23.45 pct over 13 weeks (ie, 3 months or one quarter). I don't think the falling Yen or the rising Toyota share price is sustainable, at least nowhere near this rate.

The CAD dropped a bit -0.06 pct W/W to close down a nickel at 86.33 (a very positive number for the Chinese, signifying health, wealth and long-life). The CAD has been dropping mostly because the economy has suddenly hit the wall, close to recession numbers, because of the earlier run-up well past 90, which, along with econ problems in the U.S., damaged inbound tourism and export manufacturing, especially in Ontario.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Weekly Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index - Priced in USD


Weekly British Pound Index:

Weekly British Pound - Weekly Chart

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index - Daily Chart




Weekly Japanese Yen Index:


Weekly Japanese Yen - Weekly Chart

Daily Japanese Yen Index:


Daily Japanese Yen Index - Daily Chart




Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:


Weekly Canadian Dollar - Weekly Chart


Daily Canadian Dollar Index:


Daily Canadian Dollar Index - Daily Chart


International Equities Review

This week, there was a totally bifurcated market and I don't quite understand why. Canada and U.K. equity markets were hammered, down -3.0 pct and -4.0 pct respectively. But the NYSE-listed closed end FXI fund for China and the Templeton Russia Fund (TRF) were up +2.8 pct and +9.9 pct respectively. The India Fund (IFN) dropped -0.5 pct W/W, but zoomed +2.3 pct on Friday.

Asia-Pacific indices (Interactive link)
European indices (Interactive link)


Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
TRF 91.29 0.52 0.57% 9.86% 15.32% 17.93% 69.06% 45.95% 47.43% 58.52%
FXI 103.79 1.26 1.23% 2.76% 7.17% 7.96% 64.77% 28.61% 45.06% 63.47%
EWJ 14.13 0.05 0.36% -0.14% 0.64% 6.96% 1.29% 7.05% 8.69% 3.29%
IFN 47.00 1.05 2.29% -0.51% -1.36% -5.30% 13.88% 11.11% 5.55% 8.29%
SPY 140.75 -0.87 -0.61% -1.12% -0.47% 0.29% 11.09% 7.06% 13.09% 11.10%
EWZ 45.44 0.10 0.22% -2.47% -1.43% 2.81% 30.46% 25.66% 27.60% 34.20%
IEV 103.40 -0.67 -0.64% -2.55% -1.08% 0.16% 23.88% 8.25% 18.31% 24.68%
EWC 25.03 -0.08 -0.32% -2.98% -3.58% -3.25% 11.49% 6.83% 10.85% 13.93%
QQQQ 42.93 -0.45 -1.04% -3.38% -2.21% -3.85% 3.92% 7.67% 12.41% 3.70%
EWU 23.12 -0.05 -0.22% -3.99% -3.38% -0.47% 20.67% 6.49% 13.89% 19.85%


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Japan's EWJ (a USD-denominated NYSE-traded ETF) lost -0.14 W/W to 14.13, which is just two cents. There was a gain of +0.36 pct on Friday.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ


Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Hourly data:

Hourly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) fell hard -3.99 pct on the week to 23.12. But the FTSE 100 dropped -70 points (-1.1 pct W/W), so maybe there was an ex-dividend date this week as "occam_razor" states in his comment. Thank you, kindly.

If any ETF you hold rises or drops sharply in price, I recommend you go to the Yahoo Finance site to look into the highest weighted component issues to see the stocks and sectors that were moved the most.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Hourly data:


Hourly EWU Data


Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC of Canada lost -2.98 pct to close at 25.03. The TSE Composite dropped -148 points W/W (-1.2 pct), so perhaps the difference is due to an ex-dividend date this week.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data


Interactive EWC Hourly data:


Hourly EWC Data

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).


U.S. Equities Review

For a couple weeks, I have been alerting readers to the continuous distribution that has been taking place in the U.S. equity markets.

A divergence between Money Flow and Price direction does not always result in price reversals, but when you have looked through hundreds of thousands of charts like me over the 30 years that computers have made this easy you do pick up some experience.

Mine is saying that Money Flow divergences (with positive or negative price trends) usually result in a trend reversal. When I see those divergences showing up simultaneously in different markets, in different sectors, in key stocks, then I feel there is a change about to occur.

This was a technically bearish weak as all four major U.S. equity indexes were down. The S&P500, DJIA, NASDAQ Composite, and Russell 2000 small cap index were down (-1.14 pct, -0.83 pct, -2.28 pct and -1.50 pct respectively). On Friday, the losses in the S&P and Dow were approximately that of the Nasdaq (-0.61 pct), so the selling was across all sectors and sub-sectors on Friday.

There was a warning because a week ago I stated: "The U.S. indexes had a winning week, but they clearly ran into signs of resistance and distribution. Once again, there was a huge opening hour rally on Monday, followed by large volume on falling prices through mid-day Tuesday. Then there was a massive opening gap to the upside on both Thursday and Friday (on almost no volume), and then a sell-off the rest of both days. Yes, that's called distribution. It happened the previous week too."

The losses on Friday were mostly due to pro day traders clearing their net long positions in the final ten minutes of the day as the following chart shows. These same traders will likely hop right back into those stocks after the holiday. Note that these traders don't get too involved with the small caps (see the Russell 2000 did not get impacted much in the final ten minutes while the action was occurring in the heavy volume mid and big caps.

001k008.gif
I continue to believe that: "Big money is sending sell orders into the market. The timing for when the plug (ie, the supporting bids) gets pulled is pretty soon. And just before that happens there will be an avalanche of put option purchases and the VIX will start to go a little nuts."

Here are charts of the VIX (NYSE) and VXN (Nasdaq) indicators. The distribution started heavily along with put buying activity on Friday Dec 15. These are charts that bear watching. (pun not intended, but not a bad one)

VIX

001k009.gif

VXN

001k010.gif

The Cara mantra: Remember, we trade prices. Watch the tape. Watch the technical support. You have to do that in addition to watching the economic news and changes to the corporate fundamental and quantitative pictures. Then, you have to put it all together. At times when market trends might be in a stage of reversal, you really do have to look closer at the technical indicators and trading patterns.


Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Monthly Nasdaq Composite Data

Monthly S&P 500 Data

Monthly Dow 30 Data

Monthly Russell 2000 Data


Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Weekly Nasdaq Composite Data

Weekly S&P 500 Data

Weekly Dow 30 Data

Weekly Russell 2000 Data


Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Daily Nasdaq Composite Data

Daily S&P 500 Data

Daily Dow 30 Data

Daily Russell 2000 Data

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.


Hourly Nasdaq Composite Data

Hourly S&P 500 Data

Hourly Dow 30 Data

Hourly Russell 2000 Data


Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
HON 44.63 -0.13 -0.29% 2.32% 5.06% 4.37% 19.14% 10.91% 14.14% 16.50%
HPQ 40.63 -0.17 -0.42% 1.70% 2.50% 2.70% 41.22% 15.72% 23.23% 40.59%
PFE 25.97 -0.10 -0.38% 1.29% 3.18% -3.42% 9.21% -7.78% 14.66% 7.94%
C 54.55 -0.21 -0.38% 0.89% 5.21% 8.43% 10.67% 10.20% 13.24% 10.90%
GE 37.57 -0.20 -0.53% 0.56% 6.52% 5.27% 6.22% 9.22% 13.03% 6.07%
GM 29.42 -0.13 -0.44% 0.55% -0.54% -5.80% 55.66% -3.92% 7.88% 57.83%
MCD 43.57 -0.30 -0.68% 0.37% -0.43% 4.04% 29.98% 14.03% 33.86% 26.00%
VZ 36.55 -0.13 -0.35% 0.19% 3.51% 5.18% 20.31% -1.48% 11.64% 19.09%
UTX 62.56 -0.20 -0.32% 0.18% -3.34% -5.20% 10.67% 0.42% 1.08% 8.14%
MMM 78.35 -0.46 -0.58% 0.05% -0.27% -3.45% -0.96% 7.23% -1.56% -0.37%
IBM 95.25 -0.66 -0.69% -0.01% 1.48% 2.04% 16.07% 17.29% 23.40% 14.46%
DD 48.57 -0.41 -0.84% -0.37% 3.56% 0.29% 12.80% 14.77% 16.31% 13.24%
DIS 34.16 -0.38 -1.10% -0.41% -0.67% 3.80% 40.00% 13.56% 16.67% 41.22%
PG 63.80 -0.25 -0.39% -0.48% -0.14% 0.42% 8.54% 3.22% 14.23% 8.54%
MO 84.78 -0.94 -1.10% -0.50% -0.06% 1.23% 13.07% 2.99% 17.39% 10.33%
AIG 71.67 -0.28 -0.39% -0.64% 1.88% 0.66% 2.94% 10.18% 20.72% 5.55%
JPM 47.87 -0.78 -1.60% -0.89% 2.37% 1.27% 19.11% 2.24% 16.56% 19.53%
JNJ 65.65 -0.35 -0.53% -0.97% -0.45% -0.30% 6.52% 2.64% 7.31% 7.06%
KO 48.38 -0.28 -0.58% -1.12% -1.08% 3.11% 18.29% 9.98% 12.85% 17.20%
AXP 60.85 -0.01 -0.02% -1.28% 1.70% 1.59% 15.73% 12.46% 15.36% 16.35%
MSFT 29.64 -0.34 -1.13% -1.82% 0.82% -0.40% 10.43% 11.18% 29.55% 11.47%
T 34.98 -0.19 -0.54% -1.91% 0.03% 7.07% 41.56% 6.32% 28.18% 42.31%
WMT 45.54 -0.17 -0.37% -1.96% -1.75% -4.93% -1.49% -5.69% -6.06% -6.30%
CAT 60.59 -0.22 -0.36% -1.99% -4.43% -3.63% 4.83% -3.47% -16.17% 3.66%
BA 88.76 -1.18 -1.31% -2.14% -1.52% -1.13% 26.19% 14.90% 5.59% 24.45%
XOM 75.41 -0.46 -0.61% -2.45% -0.12% 4.19% 28.97% 16.18% 30.08% 32.07%
HD 38.89 -0.02 -0.05% -2.48% 0.23% 3.10% -5.70% 8.15% 6.61% -6.13%
MRK 42.83 -0.44 -1.02% -2.75% -2.50% -3.06% 30.78% 1.88% 21.50% 33.80%
INTC 20.08 -0.29 -1.42% -4.11% -2.90% -6.99% -21.47% 5.30% 10.03% -22.68%
AA 29.24 -0.06 -0.20% -5.80% -6.01% -4.79% -2.21% 6.37% -2.50% -0.31%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)


Dow 30 list:

I took note that the S&P analyst who covers Boeing (BA) has downgraded the technical rating to a "4" on Friday, knocking BA in price from 90 to 88.50, closing 88.76.

Unless the stock price drops a lot more from here, there is not much Total Return (TR) potential with BA for the next several years.

Here is the snapshot of the Daily-Weekly-Monthly price data charts with RSI-7 indicators. I don't think the same sign of good fortune will be there say in six months. Clearly the S&P analyst thinks the stock is fully priced here.

(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 22)

001k011.gif

The shares of the Dow 30 issues in the American military-industrial conglomerates (BA, GE, HON, UTX) are typically laggards in the four-year stock cycle, and now even S&P has sounded the alert.

But being Christmas, I have to think that the Boeing Dreamliner 787 is a wonderful gift for under the tree. It's going to be a long time before anybody sees one in the sky; (oh, stop that, it's Christmas in a preciousss few hours!)

"Jerry" sent me a note to say I really ought to be considering the newly FAA-certified Eclipse Aviation private twin-jet "beaut".

Yes, if I was 30 years younger AND didn't suffer very serious color-blindness, I might be interested. Buyers interest plus a relatively small $1.5 mil gets the next open production slot for Nov 2008 delivery.

I can't think of a finer way of traveling the many out islands of the beautiful Bahamas.


Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)


Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 3: next one is due Feb. 2)


American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)


American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)


AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 29: next one is due Dec. 29)


Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 22: next one is due Mar. 23)


Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct. 27: next one is due Jan. 26)


Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)


Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 3: next one is due Feb. 2)


Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov 17: next one is due Feb. 16)


Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)


ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 15: next one is due Mar. 16)


General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)


General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Dec. 1: next one is due Mar. 2)


Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)


Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 6: next one is due Jan. 5)


Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 27: next one is due Jan. 26)


IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)


Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)


Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Dec. 1: next one is due Mar. 2)


JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)


McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 8: next one is due Mar. 9)


3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov 17: next one is due Feb. 16)


Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)


Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 24: next one is due Feb. 23)


Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)


Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 6: next one is due Jan. 5)


United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct. 27: next one is due Jan. 26)


Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 29: next one is due Dec. 29)


Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov. 10: next one is due Feb. 9)


Wrap up:

A few of us got rich in 2006; hopefully 2007 is heaven, ie, a year of happiness.

That would be nice!

To my readers in 140 countries, may peace, joy, prosperity and love be yours throughout this holiday season.


Beannachtai na Nollag agus na hAthbhliana (Gaelic)

Boas Festas E Feliz Ano Novo (Or) Feliz Natal E Um Prospero Ano Novo. (Portuguese)

Boldog Karacsonyl es Ujevl Unnepeket (Hungarian)

Buone Feste Natalizie Buon Natale e Felice Anno Nuovo (Italian)

Cestitamo Bozic (Yugoslavian)

Chung Mung Giang Sinh (Vietnamese)

Felices Pasquas Y felices ano Nuevo (Argentine)

Feliz Navidad y prospero Ano Nuevo (Spanish)

Frohliche Weihnachten und ein Glueckliches Neues Jahr (German)

Gajan Kristnaskon (Esperanto)

Gezuar Krishtlindjet! (Albanian)

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BCara@BillCara.com

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 23, 2006 11:33:09 AM | Category: Cara Week in Review

Discourse

“little by little the signs are noticeable that this party is almost over"

While this is almost certainly the case over the next couple of months, I think last week's action sets us up for a Santa rally into new years, especially in the Nasdaq. The technicals would look really week but I've been hurt before assuming this market has turned only to rebound with vengeance..i think it's hope (and a lot of performance chasing, leverage) that's going to pull it through into the early days of next year.

Posted by: cool_tiger [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 23, 2006 12:33 PM [link]

Cramer has a column:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/realmoneyradiowrap/10329451.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

arguing (with his approval) that the hedge funds are trying to drive the market down to improve their shorts and get the S&P down to show a better relative performance for their funds.

That seems about right to me looking at market performance over the past 8 days.

Rick

Posted by: RickC [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 23, 2006 2:42 PM [link]

"Could be my epithet."

The word Grinch says...

I suppose you mean epitaph, as there were no bad words in the paragraph preceding!

Happy Holidays to all!

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 24, 2006 2:19 PM [link]

... or epigraph. Cool Yule to all and esp. to our most skillful pilot.

Posted by: jcf [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 24, 2006 5:47 PM [link]

Merry Christmas Mr. Cara.

Thank you for all you have taught me and I hope and pray 2007 is a year of good health for you.

Best wishes to all those you love and care for.

Posted by: JVS3 [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 24, 2006 8:31 PM [link]

merry christmas bill, and thanks for everything you have taught us over the last year!

Posted by: eric [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 25, 2006 1:45 AM [link]

Full Disclaimer
I keep an eye on J Cramer because of his inside knowledge. I am still very skeptical of when he recommends a stock, but i use him as a bucket to find some speculatives. ie Crystallex.

This past friday he did a service to the general public and explained in plain english how hedge funds create negative sentiment even when the underlying company is doing everything they are supposed to. Uses RIM and AAPL as an example. Many here are pro traders full time. but I am not. And for the newbies who are trying to game the game, this is must see tv.

http://tinyurl.com/yb4bgp
(Warning you are going to be subject to Ken Fisher's advertisement)

Happy holidays and best of luck in 2007.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 25, 2006 1:16 PM [link]

Hi Mr. Cara,

Excellent site you have here, I'm glad I found it. Merry Christmas to you and all!

Kind Regards,
Ralph
http://www.blog.successfulonlinetrading.com/

Posted by: RalphSE [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 25, 2006 2:10 PM [link]

Regarding EWU - it had an ex-div date on 12/20:
http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/distributions/detail.jhtml?symbol=EWU
the distribution was $0.81+ which accounts for most of the drop last week. Almost all international ETFs have distributions in December so they drop on a ex-div date by the value of dividend. Use stops with care !

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays for all of you !

Posted by: occam_razor [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 25, 2006 3:27 PM [link]

Top economists answer 10 burning questions

1. Is a recession in our future?

No, our panel says.

The median forecast of the eight economists shows a growth rate of 2.6% next year, measured from the fourth quarter to the fourth quarter. That's only slightly slower than the 3% growth over the past four quarters, but it would be the slowest growth since early 2003.

"The big issue is whether we see spillover from housing into the broader economy," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital.

"Housing is incredibly weak," Stanley acknowledges. However, "our feeling is the broader economy will be OK." Stanley is forecasting growth of 3% next year.

One economist in the group, Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said the economy will barely grow at all next year even as the Federal Reserve aggressively slashes interest rates.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/soft-landing-likely-if-housing/story.aspx?guid=%7B9339C5DC%2D9D4F%2D4A09%2D9241%2D85876B3F3644%7D

Posted by: Mousefinger [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 25, 2006 9:57 PM [link]

Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia is set to launch an internet search engine with amazon.com that could rival Google and Yahoo. The project has been dubbed Wikiasari — a combination of wiki, the Hawaiian word for quick, and asari, which is Japanese for “rummaging search�.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9075-2517026,00.html

Posted by: tinman [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 26, 2006 10:14 AM [link]

Holiday sales slower than expected

From Bloomberg:

«U.S. holiday retail sales rose
3 percent from 2005 as a slowing housing market and higher energy costs crimped spending, according to MasterCard
Advisors.
«The year-over-year gain is less than the 5.2 percent increase in 2005, MasterCard Advisors said today in a statement. MasterCard Advisors is a unit of Purchase, New York-based MasterCard Inc. The data from the day after Thanksgiving to Christmas Eve are adjusted for an extra
shopping day compared with last year.«

And from the WSJ:

«A seemingly insatiable demand for all things electronic, including flat-screen, high-definition TV sets and Nintendo Co.'s hot Wii game console, weren't enough to offset the lackluster sales of cold weather apparel, jewelry and other items. Holiday sales reflected a general slowing of retail sales over the last four or five months, due in part to a softening housing market. "People had hoped the holidays would break the trend," Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for MasterCard Advisors said. According to SpendingPulse, some luxury items, shoes and men's apparel were strong sellers, but sales of women's and children's clothing were below average.«

And from the NYT:

«Visa USA, the credit card company, said yesterday that it would lower its closely watched forecast for holiday spending. Based on purchases by credit and debit card holders, Visa said sales rose 6.5 percent in November and December, compared with the same period last year, down from its initial forecast of a 7.5 percent gain.

The company's unexpected downward revision — and the millions of dollars in lost sales it represents — could have broad implications for the nation's merchants, who count on purchases during the holiday season for nearly half of their business.«

Posted by: tinman [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 26, 2006 10:31 AM [link]

Tinman:
That is an intriguing item regarding a Wikipedia search engine. Thanks.


A person can't fail to notice how Wikipedia turns up early in almost any search, and also how Google searches do produce a lot of unusable junk, especially with regard to saleable items.

Wales' new search criteria would produce interesting results. It would be a real alternative, not just a carbon copy, of existing search engines.

Can he pull it off?

Posted by: tom sheepngoats [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 26, 2006 4:02 PM [link]

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