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Little by little the signs are noticeable that this party is almost over and the guests are inching their way to the exit. All that's left is to crown The Greatest Fool.

Money Flow indicators are showing technical divergence with rising prices in most (but not all) equity markets. Money flows out of markets when there is higher volume on down ticks and down days. I will continue to show the charts of this evolving situation because it is probably the writing on the wall.

Also, in this WIR, I am going to focus on the 14 words that the Fed changed in the FOMC Report on Tuesday. The picture of the Fed's concern over an under-performing economy is becoming clearer to economists like David Rosenberg (Merrill Lynch).

Rosenberg says "a bond rally led by the front end of the Treasury curve makes perfect sense to us. We believe (the Fed is) becoming more, not less, concerned over the housing downturn." You might wish to download Dec 12 Rosenberg commentary: "The Fed inches closer to neutral" or the Dec 14 Rosenberg's econ outlook for 2007.

While I agree with Rosenberg, I take a slightly different view. He says macro-economics will drive the Fed decision to lower rates (mostly affecting the short Treasuries), I say that the level of equity market indexes will drive the Fed to drop rates. You see, rates must come down to protect the ‘wealth effect' (via PE multiple expansion) and they will when stock prices collapse. But the U.S. economy is fairly robust, though slowing due to problems in a few industries like housing and autos), and, if it gets worse as I suspect, a recession might not occur until mid-year 2007. I expect a severe correction to equity market prices before then.

I expect the equity price correction simply because there was no reason, other than excess money chasing fewer stocks (via buy-backs), for the market value of stocks to grow so excessively since mid-July. By fundamental measures, the enterprise value of corporations has grown moderately during this period. So the price increases have not been supported by value increases, leading to an over-bought condition.

There are, presently, ten stocks of the Cara Global Best 100 Companies that currently have a time-weighted (M-W-D) RSI value of between 75 and 84. In alphabetical order these are: ABV, C, CVX, DB, DEO, DIS, PTR, RIO, TM and XOM.

These 10 are top-quality rated companies whose share prices have become extended on the upside, and, like the rest, will soon have those prices revert to the normal 50 level via a Bear phase that, through the bottom of the Bear cycle will take their detrended prices possibly as far below the 50 level as today they are above it.

On the economic front, personal spending data this week shows that 4Q06 spending in the U.S. is running at a +3.3 pct rate, up from +2.8 pct, which is helping the economy grow at an increase of +2.1 pct (up from +1.7 pct) and so you might wish to review the Dec 13 David Rosenberg commentary on surging Nov retail sales. New computer games (a one-off thing) helped the monthly sales of consumer electronics, but the sales at department stores and clothing stores was "dismal" according to Rosenberg.

All in all, the housing industry picture is the one to continue focusing on. Despite reports to the contrary, it's getting worse (prices have to drop in order to clear a glut of inventory), and will soon start to lay its problems onto the commercial lending system.

That may cause the Fed to ease sooner than later as David Rosenberg opines. And if that's the case, just who is the winner? Surely it will not be the middle class of the U.S.

Commercial bankers are tightening their grip on consumer lending practices as I showed recently in a Fed survey and report. The easing of the Fed will go to their owners at Humungous Bank & Broker for using your deposits to purchase Treasury debt and stocks of blue chip companies in order to keep the post-housing wealth effect alive and well in America.

Actually, it is the Greater Fool Theory that is alive and well in the capital markets today.

Apart from stock and bond prices, what has been happening to society in America was brought home to me this week while watching a CNN Lou Dobbs series special on War on the Middle Class. I admit to not watching more than one evening's production, and only 30 minutes at that, but what I saw and heard was every bit as chilling as the insights into America's social problems shown by CNN's Hurricane Katrina coverage.

I speak of the concerns on the faces and in the words of middle class Americans who have come into the work force with what used to be excellent jobs as firemen and nurses and the like. Their wages can no longer get these people above the poverty line. And I saw and heard well-dressed, well-educated retired folk in Florida who have given a lifetime of service to American society now in their sunset years struggling to meet the high cost of living due to massive increases in property taxes and home insurance, fuel costs and the like.

I saw desperation on the faces of these people " not just discontent.

Meanwhile Wall Street managing directors are pulling down holiday bonuses of $50 million a piece from a bonus pool that aggregates multiple tens of billions of dollars earned on the backs of all of these people. From the employers and past employers of these people, the list of corporate executives that are pulling down annual compensation packages of $50 million or more is getting beyond belief. The losing management teams in corporate takeover wars are walking away with $50 million personal settlements for doing goodness knows what. I have never seen anything like this.

So the rich and well-connected are getting theirs, and the Middle Class is sinking. Economic and social crime is worsening. Personal and government debt is ballooning. And on and on while the Administration and the Fed and too many (but not all) of Wall Street's talking heads are telling you that all is well in the U.S. economy and capital markets. I think not.

I have never seen anything like this in my lifetime, ie, people who live for today, traders who ignore capital and market risk, transference of wealth from the many to the few, transference of capital and jobs from America to its former enemies, and on and on.

I have come to the conclusion that a once proud America is dieing, but doesn't want to admit it, is too embarrassed to admit the reality. Today's America is a paper tiger that now acts mostly, not in the interests of its people, but in support of the cream of its society " the VIP's in Washington, New York and in corporate America.

I am saying this today because part of the issue, as I see it, is that the U.S. equity market is being propped up, mostly by private equity and share buy-backs, for appearances sake and for reasons of personal greed on the part of movers and shakers. But when those VIP's decide the burden of phoniness is too great to bear, which will be when they feel they cannot skim more cream from the system, the greed cycle will be over.

I believe that once the selling starts in the U.S. equity market, the result will look like a combination of 2001-2 and October 1987. It's coming.

Will the rest of the world suffer during this "transition"? Well, financial greed is not just an American phenomenon, but there are reasons to believe the problems are not as bad elsewhere. Besides, Britain and Western Europe seem to be riding the rapid expansion of the economies of the Middle East and Eastern Europe; India with close to 15 percent of the world's population is certainly alive and growing as it takes on service sector jobs for the world; Japan, Korea, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong seem to be benefiting from the unparalleled growth of China; and Brazil is capitalizing on its strength of low cost manufacturing and rich natural resources, which are in demand from markets like China.

So after the Bear works though its cycle in equity markets, I think those are the places to be invested. In some international markets, the growth of wealth (both market capitalization and enterprise value) is phenomenal and will only be slowed or put in check by much higher interest rates, which I don't see happening on account of America's need to drop their rates in 2007 to stem the bleeding.

While America is causing its own problems, there is a notion it can get by with finger pointing at China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Afghan and Iraqi insurgents, the Muslim world generally, Pakistan, Cuba, Venezuela; the list seems endless.

As CNN's Lou Dobbs continues to point out, America's biggest problems are within its own borders.

More than ever today, I believe that the next great Bull market will be in hard money, ie, gold and silver and the platinum group. You see, America must, soon I'd say, come to the realization that the policies of its Administration over the past 20 years is tearing the heart out of its middle class, and these 200 million people need money to stay above the rising poverty line.

Moving that bar lower in America is going to cost trillions of USD. America has to print that money, ergo: precious metal prices are going much higher. There was a very significant pull-back in the PM markets on Friday, and the selling may continue for a few days. But, as I see it, this is short-term intervention by central bankers who are trying to keep their ship from sinking. Ultimately, and I believe this will happen in 2007-2008, the $USD will sink to the mid-70's and $GOLD will be trading well above $800.

I will not change this view until after the G-20 nations agree to rebalance currencies within a new band. By then I believe $GOLD will be trading above $800.

With today's WIR intro being a bit of a downer after a surprisingly bullish week in the U.S. and most international equity markets, I suppose I will continue to be held in low regard by those VIPs and traders who stand behind the U.S. Administration, economy, Dollar, and capital markets at any cost.

But, as you know, I'm not going to stop telling traders my opinions of where the dangers and best opportunities lie. Sometimes TV and photo's tell the story best. I referred to Lou Dobbs here. In the wrap up, I will show photos of an amazing development in the Middle East, Dubai City.

With that out of the way, let's see how the week went.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Russia and China were very strong equity markets this week. But there are Money Flow indicators that are diverging from the positive price trends in some markets.

U.S. Equities : Three of the four major market indexes (SP500 +1.2 pct; DJIA +1.1 pct; and Nasdaq +0.8 pct) gained on the week. The Russell 2000 (+0.0) was flat. The FOMC report has a few economists thinking that maybe the economy is slowing rather quickly even though there is so much positive news being reported.

Dow 30 : It was a terrific week for the Bulls. There were 23 Dow stocks up and just 7 down. The Dow index stands at 12445 with a bullish target of 12500. However, negative money flow continues to be concern and technical resistance is being closely watched.

U.S. Sector ETFs: There were 7 ETF's up and 3 down. Telecom Services (IYZ) was the big winner.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #2 (+1.2 pct); $WTIC jumped; CVX and XOM leading
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #10 (-0.5 pct); From first to last W/W
20: Industrials (XLI): #9 (-0.3 pct); UTX & CAT hard landing
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #4 (+0.6 pct); Retail spending up
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #8 (-0.0 pct); Friday was a downer
35: Healthcare (IYH): #6 (+0.3 pct); Friday recovered early loss
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #3 (+1.1 pct); Traders sold on news
45: Tech (SMH chips): #7 (+0.2 pct); Friday recovered early loss
50: Telecom Service (IYZ): #1 (+2.0 pct); T (+2.0 pct), VZ (+3.3 pct)
55: Utilities (XLU): #5 (-0.5 pct); weaker bonds

Bonds: Bonds dropped a bit again as U.S. econ data continues better than expected. Inversion of the yield curve was not so bad again this week as recession fears are being dismissed. Merrill Lynch economist not so sure this is the right call, and Colin Twiggs noted that Fed Model is now getting closer to dreaded 50:50 level, which I think should help bonds.

Commodities: $CRB lifted +0.3 pct pct W/W to 313.34 because of strength in oil.

Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures were up sharply +3.3 pct (+$2.06) to 64.09. Crude Light over $65 will likely damage Consumer spending.

Gold: $GOLD and $SILVER were down sharply on Friday afternoon.

Goldminers: $XAU, GDX and XGD (TSX) were down -0.5 pct, -1.7 pct, and -2.7 pct respectively W/W, for a second straight losing week as the $USD gained for the second week in a row. I take this as moves off previously over-bought ($GOLD) and over-sold ($USD) conditions. I also feel there was strong Fed intervention on Friday afternoon.

Forex: This week, the $USD gained +0.9 pct and the Euro lost -1.0 pct to 84.06 and 130.74 respectively. I believe this week's and last week's $USD bounce was only a technical correction to a near-term over-sold condition. Traders are waiting hopefully for phone calls from Paulson and Bernanke post-Beijing " but they ought to be listening to Mr. Joe as he now holds the power.

Cara100 RSI Report: courtesy of "David"
[note there are data differences with Investertech and other sources]

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Sector ETF:

Seven of the ten sector ETF's I follow here were up this week, but only one by +2.0 pct.

To repeat last week's comment: "My thinking here is that this is a year-end rally, but that enough individual stocks are being sold into broad market strength that technical resistance is quickly forming."

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IYZ	29.62	0.13	0.44%	2.03%	4.04%	4.81%	28.95%	7.91%	17.63%	24.14%
XLE	61.01	-0.74	-1.20%	1.23%	0.48%	7.73%	15.77%	17.67%	14.17%	16.25%
XLF	36.61	-0.11	-0.30%	1.10%	3.48%	1.19%	13.70%	7.20%	13.66%	14.01%
XLY	38.45	-0.30	-0.77%	0.60%	2.18%	0.71%	16.52%	11.58%	15.50%	14.26%
XLU	36.94	-0.37	-0.99%	0.46%	0.60%	2.61%	15.44%	9.39%	14.01%	13.31%
IYH	66.45	0.19	0.29%	0.33%	0.65%	1.08%	4.43%	1.39%	9.49%	5.49%
SMH	34.26	0.10	0.29%	0.20%	0.71%	-3.36%	-9.65%	-0.26%	2.88%	-10.59%
XLP	26.06	-0.09	-0.34%	-0.04%	2.08%	0.81%	11.18%	1.88%	9.27%	8.86%
XLI	35.20	-0.09	-0.26%	-0.31%	0.80%	-0.51%	11.29%	7.55%	5.55%	10.66%
XLB	35.37	-0.12	-0.34%	-0.51%	1.87%	3.97%	14.39%	13.47%	14.17%	17.31%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

XLE gained +1.23 pct W/W to close at 61.01. a week ago XLE was the only loser of these ten sector ETF's.

A week ago I noted that the $USD was in a trading recovery mode, which was partly responsible for the price of $WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) losing -$1.40/bbl to $62.03. The huge week that XOM and CVX had two weeks ago was consolidated last week, as I said at the time.

This week, with $WTIC moving over the $64 mark, most of these oils strengthened again.

Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CVX	75.38	-0.59	-0.78%	3.50%	3.10%	9.96%	27.59%	21.99%	26.84%	27.72%
XOM	77.30	-1.43	-1.82%	2.38%	0.13%	6.37%	32.20%	19.57%	30.75%	29.94%
SU	80.90	-0.73	-0.89%	2.08%	2.35%	7.11%	23.45%	20.10%	9.24%	24.69%
TOT	72.52	-0.36	-0.49%	1.75%	2.73%	3.66%	-44.25%	15.04%	17.63%	-43.87%
STO	27.63	-0.34	-1.22%	1.58%	-1.00%	3.52%	14.50%	14.55%	2.18%	17.83%
CEO	89.85	0.35	0.39%	1.37%	2.66%	5.16%	29.86%	9.89%	18.46%	29.30%
PBR	97.64	0.22	0.23%	-0.59%	3.98%	9.41%	30.67%	23.21%	24.43%	38.97%
IMO	37.66	-0.85	-2.21%	-2.18%	-0.05%	3.78%	-63.79%	11.82%	10.76%	-62.15%
ECA	50.01	-2.34	-4.47%	-5.28%	-5.55%	1.58%	7.09%	9.84%	2.00%	2.27%

Chevron Texaco and Exxon Mobil gained +3.5 pct and +2.4 pct respectively, which is consistent with the big increase this week in the $WTIC price (to $64.09) that was locked in after inventory data showed a much larger than expected drawdown.

There were a few reports from the Merrill Lynch energy research team. Not my specialty, but the data can be helpful to many.

Download ML Dec 13 energy report
Download U.S. Gas report
Download ML Dec 13 U.S. energy demand outlook

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

EnCana and Imperial Oil took the big hits in this group, while Suncor actually gained +3.1 pct W/W.

In a report this week, Citigroup says "We are cutting our ECA target px to $47 from $60 on cost run-ups and concerns over ECA's portfolio quality. Our rating goes to 3H (sell) from 1H (buy). 4q 06, & full-yr 07-08 EPS ests move down to $1.16, $4.42, & $3.47 on higher costs. Today the company introduced disappointing 2007 guidance of 1% overall production growth, already 400 bps lower than the goal the company had set out just five weeks ago at its annual investor day in Calgary and New York. Our concern over the portfolio quality is driven by skyrocketing costs, even in the face of reduced spending. F&D costs appear to be headed for a 25-50% increase over 2005 for natural gas, and a 75% increase overall for oil and gas. This is happening in an inflationary environment of only 12-15% for 2006. EnCana's valuation appears full from both an asset value (NPV7) and cash flow basis. As several peer companies that appear to have higher quality portfolios trade at similar levels, we believe that ECA is currently overvalued." Download Citigroup Dec 14 report on ECA

In the Cara 100, there are several oils that I think are even more over-bought presently than ECA. As I see it, CVX, XOM and PTR (PetroChina) are three. In fact, the irony here is I believe that even the shares of Citigroup are presently over-bought.

That's not taking shots against my friends at C; of the ten most over-bought stocks in the Cara 100, those three oils plus C are joined by my all-year as well as Christmas time favorite Diageo (DEO); my favorite auto manufacturer Lexus/Toyota Motor (TM); every pirate's favorite Disney (DIS); the CVRD Happy Valley Gang (RIO); another Brazilian, the happy beer guy AmBev (ABV); and another HB&B, the Deutsche Bank (DB).

Boy when this elevator starts to go down, I can just imagine what's going to happen to the (let's say) less quality merchandise.

Btw, since this section is on Cdn oils (lol), there was a downgrade on ECA (from Buy to Hold by Canaccord vs Hold to Sell at Citigroup. Canaccord also downgraded IMO from Buy to Hold.

Neither IMO ("2.2 pct) nor ECA (-4.5 pct) had a good day Friday in the face of the broker downgrades. That ruined their week. Chief complaint is that cost inflation in Alberta is going to hurt future value. That seems like a long-term concern and the price drop was rather immediate " to ECA and IMO, but not to SU, which is also a major Alberta player.

AG Edwards apparently still considers ECA a Buy (with a 12-month US$59 PT) although they did note that EnCana lowered its production growth and budget to generate free cash flow.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) went from # 1 performer to #10 performer, probably because it had gained +2.39 pct the prior week. This week XLB dropped -0.5 pct W/W with much of that on Friday.

Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TS	51.02	1.48	2.99%	9.53%	12.08%	17.15%	106.48%	45.40%	44.08%	111.18%
PKX	83.90	1.69	2.06%	6.42%	5.85%	15.26%	66.97%	36.56%	37.93%	71.64%
TCK	78.68	-2.17	-2.68%	3.83%	4.09%	12.21%	31.66%	31.73%	0.00%	0.00%
RTP	220.36	-3.02	-1.35%	2.30%	2.66%	7.02%	16.71%	19.19%	7.52%	26.60%
RIO	29.92	-0.11	-0.37%	2.26%	8.48%	14.15%	39.16%	43.50%	34.35%	45.17%
AA	31.04	0.28	0.91%	-0.23%	0.55%	9.64%	3.81%	10.34%	2.58%	9.95%
BHP	40.38	-0.32	-0.79%	-0.62%	-1.25%	0.72%	15.37%	7.57%	-0.10%	24.48%
GGB	16.18	-0.02	-0.12%	-1.10%	3.98%	7.72%	-7.06%	16.65%	21.29%	-0.86%
MT	41.86	0.33	0.79%	-1.39%	3.56%	2.42%	56.02%	24.10%	27.82%	60.94%
NUE	59.19	0.86	1.47%	-9.70%	0.94%	7.25%	70.67%	26.58%	16.20%	79.42%

A week ago I added Tenaris to the Table with some kind words. This week TS responded with a gain of +9.5 pct W/W. Not a bad quarter this week!

Well I added Mittal to the table as well and MT dropped -1.4 pct W/W " so my crystal ball clouded up when I pointed East, you might say. It's used to my pointing it south across Lake Ontario, and I suppose it managed to see the light emanating from those busy Tenaris steel mills in Brazil and Argentina.

Actually Mittal ran headlong into an adversary called the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC).

The big deal this week in this sector was not M&A, but an end to U.S. steel tariffs on steel from Canada, Australia, France and Japan. The U.S. steel makers were bitterly disappointed this gravy train was eliminated. Nucor (NUE) plunged -9.5 pct W/W.

This move will help the U.S. automakers and other manufacturers like Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) as well as the Canadian steelmakers.

Did anybody see this coming? Well, a week ago in the Industrial sector review I did write something about one stock that was shot out of the blocks. Guess which one!

(From WIR#49): "The CAT leaped the highest this week (+3.6 pct)."

And why do you think, Nucor was up +11.8 pct a week before this NUE-hammering news came out. I'd say sucker traders were led into a Bull trap. NUE plunged -9.5 pct this week, a lot of it when on Tuesday management released a negative guidance report. And then another whammy hit on Thursday:

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(From the newswire) "The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) allowed some tariffs to end on flat-rolled, corrosion-resistant steel used by automakers. The decision applies on a country by country basis. Product for Australia, Canada, France and Japan will not face tariffs, but steel imported from Germany and Korea will continue to be taxed. The commission withheld its decision on China for the present time. China accounted for 17% of U.S. steel imports last month according to Dow Jones. Treasury Secretary Paulson is currently in China conducting high level talks with Chinese officials. The ITC decision is expected to increase imports and drive down margins for US Steel (X), Nucor (NUE), Mittal (MT) and Steel Dynamics (STLD)."

So how did the U.S. steelmakers handle all this action? Motley Fool said: Steel yourself; when it rains, it pours.

But, Steel Dynamics beat the ITC report to the punch on Wed afternoon with surprisingly positive guidance.

The steel research team of Merrill Lynch published a report a week ago that I re-ran, but I'm going to do it again. It might get updated now.Download Dec 8 Global Steel Price Report of ML.

XLB has a small weighting in PM shares, so was affected, but not pulled down too much by Friday's debacle in the precious metals.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was a loser this week, down -0.3 pct W/W to 35.20.

Australian technical analyst Colin Twiggs had more to say about the Dow Transports (DJT) this week, as in: they are continuing their retracement to test intermediate support at 4600. The breakdown would set up a test of 4150, which is the primary support level.

After the DJT couldn't lift through 4900, I started to say: "I'm interested to see if the Dow Transports Average (DJT) can move to a higher level ; It may or may not happen, but I think the odds are growing that there will be a technical chart failure;. (later) I have been saying that for several weeks. This week (a week ago) the Twiggs chart shows the index at 4755, which was a tiny gain W/W. I still think DJT is headed south to test that 4600. But I do acknowledge that 4150 is the major support line. Below that and traders will be headed for the exits."

This Friday, DJT closed at 4701.

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The Dow Transports Average ETF is IYT. That's a chart you have to watch because it gives you insights to the status of the U.S. economy.

Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4 Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GE	37.36	1.15	3.18%	5.93%	5.90%	3.89%	5.63%	7.20%	9.53%	3.78%
ERJ	43.46	0.02	0.05%	4.80%	6.83%	1.76%	10.70%	6.76%	23.61%	4.98%
HON	43.62	0.93	2.18%	2.68%	1.89%	0.69%	16.44%	9.74%	12.05%	14.91%
BA	90.70	0.77	0.86%	0.63%	1.28%	2.24%	28.95%	20.92%	6.94%	28.13%
ABB	17.03	-0.06	-0.35%	0.35%	4.41%	7.04%	67.12%	27.66%	42.99%	85.11%
FDX	115.06	0.09	0.08%	-0.21%	0.17%	-2.61%	11.36%	8.65%	5.08%	14.37%
MMM	78.31	-0.46	-0.58%	-0.32%	-2.09%	-2.47%	-1.01%	5.62%	-3.20%	1.06%
CAT	61.82	-0.30	-0.48%	-2.49%	1.03%	0.73%	6.96%	-5.52%	-12.75%	5.30%
UTX	62.45	0.39	0.63%	-3.51%	-2.21%	-6.46%	10.47%	-3.34%	2.70%	8.42%

A week ago, there was some Tables housekeeping to replace some of these stocks with a couple (FDX and ABB) that my readers have requested. (I know I need to update the tables in the top section of this website too.)

Fedex is a bellwether on the U.S. and global economy. ABB is a very well managed industrial giant that matches up well against GE " although they don't have a seat in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York like GE's CEO Jeff Immelt.

Here are the M-W-D charts (with RSI) of FDX (top) and ABB (below).

FDX

ABB

As I commented a week ago, Swiss industrial giant ABB is a terrific company. It will go into my UK/European 100 for sure. I have written it up a couple times.

Of course, after I wrote it up, ABB went up like a bullet, and GE stayed down. This week, however, the gnomes must be getting a little ticked. The beast GE was finally moved up.

This week GE advanced +5.9 pct to $37.36, which is a real shocker to the hard-done-by shareholders. With that huge +5.9 pct lift, GE has now managed a 52 week gain of +3.8 pct. I suppose the shareholders are in it for the dividends. (lol)

Actually, GE lifted with the news of the lifting of the steel tariff " since GE uses a lot of steel in its manufacturing businesses. Note the M-W-D charts with RSI. The Monthly is what technical analysts refer to as a long base.

Hint: they love those long bases. Once they break out, there's little that can stop the pent-up buying power.

Also note the 3-Minute trading chart for GE (below). Whenever a stock might be breaking out of a long base pattern on the basis of good corporate news, I like to watch the trading more closely.

As you can see, traders who over-pumped this stock were taking some profits off the table. The closing minutes sell off could be gnome-inspired. Maybe they want traders to think badly of this stock while they put together more of their own buying.

In any case, the monthly and weekly at 72.9 and 72.6 is marginally over-bought based on my assessment of the GE peer group. It could be higher. The comparables for Boeing (BA) for example are 79.0 and 77.1.

And look at the BA close on Friday.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +0.60 pct W/W to close at 38.45.

Yes, electronic games and iPODS are being hyped for holiday gift giving, but department store and clothing stores are soft in sales so far.

Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	32.92	0.35	1.07%	3.69%	4.97%	-1.17%	-25.96%	18.20%	7.09%	-28.47%
JCP	79.53	-1.06	-1.32%	3.38%	4.19%	-2.57%	40.89%	22.86%	20.79%	46.73%
TM	125.76	0.06	0.05%	3.09%	4.80%	2.59%	17.70%	18.46%	24.77%	29.45%
CCL	47.69	-0.11	-0.23%	0.85%	1.27%	-4.43%	-12.61%	8.86%	24.94%	-13.04%
SBUX	36.42	-0.18	-0.49%	0.00%	3.79%	-7.77%	17.98%	7.59%	-1.01%	15.18%
DIS	34.30	-0.42	-1.21%	-0.26%	3.66%	3.75%	40.57%	13.16%	17.51%	38.64%
BC	32.29	-0.07	-0.22%	-0.80%	2.02%	-0.52%	-20.90%	6.85%	-5.36%	-20.92%
NKE	96.05	-0.95	-0.98%	-1.02%	-1.59%	0.86%	11.75%	15.76%	14.96%	7.02%
WHR	82.29	-3.58	-4.17%	-4.14%	-2.79%	-6.84%	-0.46%	-7.14%	0.40%	-2.19%

Ebay (EBAY) (+3.7 pct W/W to $32.92) got more of the Cramer bounce I spoke of a week ago. JC Penny (JCP) (+3.4 pct W/W to $79.53) were clear winners.

Toyota (TM) (+3.1 pct) uses a lot of tariff-lifted steel in the U.S. They were happy with the removal of steel tariffs.

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Costco reported on Dec 14 a solid Q1 ahead of expectations. Margins were under pressure, but impressive given lighter sales. An aggressive share buy-back this quarter effectively increased eps by +$0.02/share. UBS has a Buy-2 rating with a 12-month Price Target (PT) of $66 (presently it's 53.73). Download UBS Dec 14 report on COSTCO

I am considering Costco Wholesale Corp (NDQ: COST) as a candidate for a Cara USA 100. Presently, COST has a Monthly-Weekly-Daily RSI-7 of 57.9/59.9/52.7, which gives the stock some room to run higher.

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Costco [GICS 25]
(COST: Yahoo Finance file)
(COST: StockChart chart)
(COST: Investertech chart)
(COST: ADVFN Financial Data)
(COST: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) had a huge gain a week ago (+2.12 pct W/W). This week, XLP closed flat (-0.04 pct) to close down a penny at 26.06.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	48.56	-0.17	-0.35%	2.17%	5.57%	2.51%	26.00%	7.84%	29.70%	29.60%
WAG	44.50	-0.10	-0.22%	1.99%	10.50%	4.17%	-1.96%	-10.93%	2.56%	-3.80%
BUD	48.44	0.02	0.04%	1.34%	1.70%	2.91%	10.92%	2.39%	6.65%	10.09%
DEO	78.03	-0.34	-0.43%	0.75%	0.49%	3.12%	31.01%	11.20%	15.21%	31.10%
MO	85.21	0.24	0.28%	0.45%	1.44%	1.96%	13.64%	2.49%	20.73%	11.21%
WFMI	49.06	-0.14	-0.28%	0.37%	2.04%	-0.81%	-36.37%	-12.89%	-21.87%	-35.46%
PG	64.11	0.76	1.20%	0.34%	2.27%	0.93%	9.07%	5.27%	16.82%	8.68%
WMT	46.45	-0.07	-0.15%	0.22%	1.26%	-3.05%	0.48%	-3.67%	-4.54%	-5.70%
KO	48.93	-0.07	-0.14%	0.04%	5.07%	3.80%	19.63%	9.71%	13.68%	18.88%
PEP	62.87	0.37	0.59%	-0.63%	1.47%	1.73%	5.20%	-3.32%	6.42%	5.49%

Walgreens and AmBev scored well for a second straight week. Pills and beer. I wonder.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The IYH healthcare ETF gained 22 cents (+0.33 pct W/W) to close Friday at 66.45. A week earlier, the gain was 21 cents. Once again the whole week's gain was Friday.

Maybe the institutions fill up on the weekend? Do you think?

Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMET	42.00	0.17	0.41%	5.26%	10.76%	8.84%	13.88%	23.93%	18.31%	10.88%
AET	43.20	0.60	1.41%	1.93%	4.50%	4.30%	-8.14%	10.18%	9.28%	-11.29%
PFE	25.64	0.08	0.31%	1.87%	-7.97%	-4.19%	7.82%	-8.56%	8.97%	12.51%
NVS	58.60	-0.05	-0.09%	1.58%	1.33%	0.65%	9.59%	2.70%	11.64%	12.00%
BMY	25.61	0.02	0.08%	1.03%	3.10%	3.85%	10.20%	2.77%	1.35%	17.15%
JNJ	66.29	0.04	0.06%	0.52%	0.49%	-0.36%	7.56%	3.92%	7.84%	10.19%
AMGN	70.22	0.17	0.24%	0.43%	1.30%	-3.06%	-12.62%	0.64%	4.12%	-12.71%
UNH	50.09	0.39	0.78%	0.36%	2.58%	5.19%	-18.86%	-4.06%	11.93%	-20.91%
GSK	51.97	-0.79	-1.50%	-1.05%	-3.28%	0.00%	1.98%	-6.11%	-4.80%	2.61%