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December 20, 2006
Northfield drops off the radar, Wed., Dec. 20, 2006, 1:36 PM
What is a "special situation" other than an opportunity for reward that surpasses the risks involved? In other words, it is an assessment of risk-reward like any other situation in the equity market except there are unknown circumstances where either the risk or the reward might change in a significant way.
I wrote about special situation equities in June. With that in mind, I and Team NFLD set out earlier this year to investigate Northfield Labs (NDQ: NFLD). I'll let you read about it here.
Flash forward to the past few hours, when the well-hyped NFLD simply imploded from $14 to $5.

Alec, Marc, Chris C, Eric, Chris B, Ofer, Ovidiu and Leisa were members of Team NLD. Leisa you know as somebody who knows a bit about accounting. She wrote about Northfield at the time: "Seems like a money pit to me."
Today she sent the note: (12/20/06 Real Money) Northfield Laboratories (NFLD)shares plummeted 54.8% to $5.16 after the stock was downgraded from outperform to neutral by Cowen & Co. analyst Dr. Joshua Schimmer. According to Schimmer, the company "is keeping hopes alive for blood substitutes" with its PolyHeme product, but early trial results show that it's no better than treatments already on the market."
I never wrote about Northfield again following that June 28 blog entry, and I also banned anybody from commenting on it while I studied it. Subsequently, I never found a reason to write anything (positive). Fortunately.
Traders have a job to assess risk, first and foremost.
I don't know when the Cowen & Co. report was issued, but I see there has been a very significant run-up in share trading volume in recent days. Were there traders front-running the Northfield report? If so, we all know what ought to be done about it.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 20, 2006 01:36:16 PM | Category: Special Situation Equities
Discourse
I remember researching this company while travelling on business. The bits and pieces of information I sent, IMO did not make this stock worthy of purchase except with casino money.
The project was great reinforcement (after todays debacle) that traders need to investigate and have standards for the paper they buy and sell.
Posted by: cb
at
December 20, 2006 7:04 PM [link]
No question that one day a human blood substitute will be perfected and for that company and it's investors the profit will be handsome.
However after following the Hemosol (HML-T) story years back - cb is right about "casino money".
Posted by: CleanDeal
at
December 20, 2006 7:58 PM [link]
If you really want to do some interesting research, please look at how much investors have wasted in the last 25yrs chasing a blood substitute. IF you don't want to be added to that list do your reseach and please play close attention to the raw material requirements for this product. (hint)
Posted by: blood
at
December 20, 2006 8:22 PM [link]
Gotta listen to a guy whose handle is..blood.
Posted by: Rigdon
at
December 20, 2006 8:48 PM [link]
cb,
Yes, we do need to have a watchlist that meets our "quality" standards. For me it's the Cara 100. We watch our watchlist to determine and assess the macro-economic, fundamental, quantitative, and technical factors that are pushing the stock price one way or the other. When the stock price cycle appears to be bottoming out according to our choice of time horizon (long, medium or short), then we buy if the sum of the information we have collected at that point still gives us comfort. Otherwise, we pass. Pushing the buy or sell button is the easy and enjoyable part, but trading overall is hard work.
As for Northfield, I don't have an opinion one way or another. But for all the research the team and I did, at the end of the day, I saw no compelling reason to buy.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
December 20, 2006 9:52 PM [link]
Bill,
When your Northfield item appeared I recall writing to you suggesting that there was something wonky about their needing to use questionable and controversial practices in emergency rooms to get their product used (tested?) without patient consent when they could have gone to the Dept of Defense and found ways to have it used on the abundant resource of wounded troops in Iraq. Surely Mr Rumsfeld would have obliged. The whole thing smelled and looked bloody bad. Hopefully, readers didn't get taken down by this one as a result of a lack of open dialogue and and the decision to block comment at your site.
Posted by: TerryC
at
December 20, 2006 9:58 PM [link]
Blech, Hemosol. Any company that builds a $90 million processing plant (the "Ferrari of plants") next to a golf course for a product that causes "adverse effects" i.e. "cardiac arrest" is bound to have troubles.
I wonder if it is time to sell my shares yet? :(
(I don't think their strategy shift worked out.)
I'm going to go buy some tulip bulbs...
Off topic but since the Bull Board isn't up yet today, check this out:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061220/guyana_iamgold.html?.v=1
The Chineese continue to be willing buyers of solid assets. How long before the Royalty Trusts are gobbled up by them due to Flaherty's missteps and lack of forethought?
Posted by: elvispoc
at
December 21, 2006 7:56 AM [link]
Bill, you ask if the traders were front running. When they short shares they will do so to the maximum. That is until there are none left to sell short. When this occurs the fee to borrow stock can exceed forty percent. DataExplorers charges for a complete list of stocks and lending revenue but they make a list of the top ten earners available for free. Go to www.dataexplorers.co.uk, click on performanceexplorer, click on SUMMARY STATISTICS, register for free, log in, scroll down to Equities by Fee. Northfield made the list in October. They debuted at fifth or sixth depending upon whether you consider FFH on Toronto and FFH on NYSE to be one stock or two.
The point of selling short to someone who lends for a high fee from someone who lends for a high fee, (the stock is going in circles)is to make as big a bet as possible on a company with a small float.
Posted by: bidrec
at
December 22, 2006 12:34 AM [link]
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At one time I did take a speculative position in NFLD. The story was so compelling. After a few months of seeing no action other than an occassional press release from the company, I began to wonder why, if there was merit to the company's product and story, and we were at war, weren't the US Gov. and Pentagon all over them?
It was a gut reaction, but the scenario just didn't feel right.
I sold to find greener pastures. Sure glad I did, but have nothing more than my "gut" to thank.
Posted by: Rigdon
at
December 20, 2006 5:01 PM [link]