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December 15, 2006

Gold, goldminers and ECA on the radar, Fri., Dec. 15, 2006, 2:12 PM

As I try to get my head around over 400 pages of manuscript (next one will be under 200, trust me), I keep a third eye on the market " not that I'm really paying attention. But I did note that GLD hit the skids. GDX is the black arrow. Ouch!


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Also, I see that Citigroup downgraded (Cara 100) EnCana. The note I received was:



"We are cutting our ECA target px to $47 from $60 on cost run-ups and concerns over ECA's portfolio quality. Our rating goes to 3H (sell) from 1H (buy). 4q 06, & full-yr 07-08 EPS ests move down to $1.16, $4.42, & $3.47 on higher costs.

Today the company introduced disappointing 2007 guidance of 1% overall production growth, already 400 bps lower than the goal the company had set out just five weeks ago at its annual investor day in Calgary and New York.

Our concern over the portfolio quality is driven by skyrocketing costs, even in the face of reduced spending. F&D costs appear to be headed for a 25-50% increase over 2005 for natural gas, and a 75% increase overall for oil and gas. This is happening in an inflationary environment of only 12-15% for 2006.

EnCana's valuation appears full from both an asset value (NPV7) and cash flow basis. As several peer companies that appear to have higher quality portfolios trade at similar levels, we believe that EnCana shares are currently overvalued."




Download Citigroup Dec 14 report on ECA


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 15, 2006 02:12:57 PM | Category: Cara Global 100 Best Companies , Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Harry Schultz, famous newsletter publisher, writer, analyst, freedom fighter and philosopher for decades, has given us one of the best definitions of the gold standard.

The Gold Standard is a Human Standard
By
Harry D. Schultz

“GOLD vs. the PRICE of gold: I have written several times over the last 36 years and I want to restate this principle with force: I am pro-gold regardless of the price! I don't fight for gold in order to make a profit on gold shares, bars or coins! Gold is important for far more important reasons and I would be embarrassed to promote gold only for monetary gain. Gold is the essential linchpin for our individual (not group or nation) freedom. Gold belongs to the monetary system as a governing factor. We belong back on the gold standard. I used to compromise and say a quasi-gold standard will probably do, a modified Bretton Woods version.

And that may be what will evolve, but in my view we should fight for a pure gold standard, the old-fashioned form, because it worked! And not just for fiscal reasons! It forced nations to limit their debt, spending and socialist schemes, which meant sound behavioural habits were formed around those limitations, and those habits rubbed off on everyone. People were more honest, moral, decent, kind, because the system was honest and moral. Cause and effect. Today we have cause and effect of the opposite standard: no limits on what governments can do, control, dictate; no limit on government debt, welfare or socialist schemes. There is no governor on the government.

This habit rubbed off on the public, causing them to go into debt, lose respect for the system and morality. The effect brings us more divorce, fraud, crime, illegitimate births, broken homes. When the money of any country loses its base/backing there is no standard for any behaviour. Money sets a standard that spreads into every area of human activity. No paper money backing, no morality. That is why gold coin money worked so well and why the U.S. moved into paper money very slowly, carefully, keeping the paper-$'s backed 100 % by gold. But slowly, like slicing a sausage, that backing was removed in stages, ‘til now there is none. The effect of this cause is all around us.

Violent films reflect violent society reflect no respect throughout society. Layer by layer, we are corrupted when money loses certainty. Today's stock market bubble is part of the scene as will be tomorrow's mega-crash and mega-recession. Big Brother was made possible through the absence of automatic controls and loss of individual freedom via non-convertible currency. So, pass the word. Fight for gold. Not for profits, though they are helpful and help us fight for individual freedom, but for a future that returns to sanity in various standards. If we have a gold standard we get a golden human standard! The two are intertwined. They are the ultimate cause and effect. Gold blesses.�

P.S. On days like this the Rolling Stones sure sound good!

Posted by: Telestar3d [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 15, 2006 2:22 PM [link]

I sincerely hope AEM comes down cuz i would enjoy more exposure. They tempered expectations on 2007 gold production. quadrupled dividend. hmmmm. sounds like they are coiling the spring for a big earnings suprise in the future.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061214/to205.html?.v=40

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 15, 2006 2:36 PM [link]

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