The NAR just released existing sales for October: 6.24M versus forecasts of b/w 6.15 and 6.2.

Median price down 3.5%. Again, the shills will try to spin this as positive. But it shows, once again, that housing will continue to cool and home builder profit margins will continue to be squeezed signficantly into the foreseeable future.

Nevertheless, the HB buy programs, predictably, kicked in right at 10 a.m.

I also noticed the 10-year spiked upward.

Correction: sales were 6.28M in November and median price down 3.1%.

Re KRY, commentary which "feels right" on how business is accomodating Chavez in VZ :

"In the oil industry, dozens of foreign companies have accepted the state's insistence that it assume the controlling influence in all local oil operations. Only ExxonMobil announced intentions to pull out, while Chevron-Texaco maintains exceptionally friendly relations with the Chávez government. Since the defeat of the general strike in 2003, some Venezuelan capitalists have moderated their stance. Gustavo Cisneros, the Rockefeller of Venezuela, has apparently made his peace with Chávez, as shown by the more even-handed reporting of his TV station Venevisión, in contrast with its earlier hostility toward the government."

Could KRY prosper even if subject to the new mining law? (Only after a few deep hits to its stock, I suspect).

The rest of this article is helpful to understanding VZ. I am not familiar with this source:

http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/2971/

Question for others on the Blog (because I know Bill can't answer.....) Using Bill's RSI 30 Investing method of going long when RSI Daily, Weekly, Monthly, are 30 or below, is anyone one else looking at OXPS and WFMI? I have expected to hear some chatter on the two but nothing yet...Also how would you adjust OXPS for the fact there is now monthly? Why does Investertech have a monthly RSI but David's does not. Any way my thoughts are that WFMI is nearing the accumulation zone while OXPS has a ways to go.....

Has anyone been following Cramer and his bullish 14548 prediction on the Dow ?

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10329314.html

He was right on the money this year with his Dow 12470 call in January.

Seems to me that busted stocks can stay busted for a while. Doesn't it make better sense to buy once WFMI and OXPS have based and begun to show signs of life?

Big Bill or anyone:
I wonder how you factor in the $25 bearish price target for wfmi on the P&F chart. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=WFMI,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Jock - The idea is that good stocks only stay down for so long. Once the RSI 7 for daily, weekly, & monthly is below 30 you generally get a bounce....

Lessmore I don't follow PnF so i can't say. From a novice TA perspective long term support seems to be around $45ish.

Price Headley of BigTrends.com calls for 15,000 Dow, 1600 S&P and 3000 Nasdaq in 2007.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/scp_v3/viewer/index.php?pid=16573&rn=289004&cl=1515895&ch=531355

His reasoning
1)Fed will keep rates low. Low interest rate environment will cause market to continue upward climb.

2)People are still skeptical of recent run up

3)3rd yr Presidential cycle is bullish avg. 19%.

Price seems pretty sharp to me. I wouldn't bet against him.

Bought 2K shares of NGAS @ 6.55 today. That is intermediate support. I want another 2K @ 6.35, major support. Maybe tomorrow on a bearish natty report. When cold weather returns, NGAS and natty gas rise.

Big Bill -- Surely, the round of Cara 100's that touched down earlier in the year (INTC, LYO, AET) did indeed bounce right back, but YHOO, OXPS and WFMI haven't.

YHOO has dropped back back to where it touched down in July, and - from what fundamental people write - may stay busted for quite a while.

Isn't it better to observe, case by case, and hop on when they recover?

Jock,
What's up with KRY today IYO? Gold up, KRY down.

Jock: this could be the answer to your question. - Chavez takes revenge and begins a new campaign to nationalize private enterprises:

Venezuela's Chavez Won't Renew TV Station's License

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez
said he will shut down a private television station he says
helped overthrow him in a two-day coup in 2002.
The broadcast license for Radio Caracas television station,
known as RCTV, ends in March, and the government will not renew
it, Chavez said.
``Pack your bags and turn off the lights,'' Chavez said
during a televised speech to soldiers in Caracas. ``There won't
be a new concession for a coup-mongering television station
called RCTV.''
RCTV would be the first private television station shut
down by Chavez. The president, who won a second six-year term in
a Dec. 3 vote, in June threatened to shut private television
stations that criticize the government and broadcast ``messages
of hate.''
``Chavez is looking to keep the opposition quiet, to
threaten his enemies,'' said Luis Vicente Leon, analyst with
polling company Datanalisis in Caracas. ``It will inspire self-
censorship in the rest of the media, and where there's self-
censorship, there's no free speech.''
The media was as the third-most popular institution in
Venezuela behind the Catholic Church and private enterprise in
surveys conducted by Datanalisis this year, Leon said. Chavez
was the fourth-most popular of 20 institutions, Leon said.
A spokesman for RCTV wasn't available for comment when the
station was contacted by Bloomberg News.

Bolivarian Military

Chavez also said he will seek to change the name of the
country's military to the Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela,
adding the name of 19th century South American liberator Simon
Bolivar.
The name change would be part of an overhaul of the
constitution next year, Chavez said. Chavez this month said he
will seek to change the constitution to end term limits on
presidential re-election.
``The revolution will be institutionalized,'' Chavez said.
``All soldiers must be ideological. You should be proud to have
the weapons of the revolution.''
Chavez calls his government the Bolivarian revolution and
helped change the constitution in 1999 to rename the country the
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

Big Bill,

The monthly RSI 7 for OXPS was 42.69 as of yesterday 12/28. Monthly data for OXPS only goes back to 02/05. Wilder used a smoothing method for his calculations which used a fairly long "look back" period.

I believe that is why the formulas I am using do not generate a "valid" monthly RSI or OXPS.

I went long OXPS yesterday, when the daily RSI 7 took a sharp turn upwards. In additon, the 11-25-8 daily MACD histogram is showing a strong bullish divergence.

As usual, it looks like I may have showed up to the party too early.

...david...

Big Bill,

The monthly RSI 7 for OXPS was 42.69 as of yesterday 12/27. Monthly data for OXPS only goes back to 02/05. Wilder used a smoothing method for his RSI calculations which used a fairly long "look back" period.

I believe that is why the formulas I am using do not generate a "valid" monthly RSI for OXPS.

I went long OXPS yesterday, when the daily RSI 7 took a sharp turn upwards. In additon, the 11-25-8 daily MACD histogram is showing a strong bullish divergence.

As usual, it looks like I may have showed up to the party too early. lol

...david...

I do NOT blindly buy individual stocks, even stocks with metrics like Cara 100 stocks, just because their RSI's are low because:

1. The overall market may be topping and that will bring most of the stocks down with it, including those that are oversold already. (Although some stocks that have already experienced the pain are at their cycle lows and will move higher as the broad market sells off).

2. The price action may be foretelling problems with the stock.

Bottom line; I don't think Bill looks at the individual situations, reasons for the selloff - are the reasons legit, or not? Many times they are not legit but are simply stories, Gnomes are getting fools to bail and they are waiting with open arms, that's when you buy also.

Hope that makes sense, have a great day.

STKTRADER I am looking at NGAS now and sure enough closed at a 52 W.L. today on decent vol. I have been trading NG stocks for a few years now, based on my trend research, current option action, and weather forecasts, may take 3-4 weeks to "base and go" here. My HAL 5000 on loan from NASA AMES :)
is telling me 1/17-1/24..... may be your optimal entry range

I meant, I think Bill DOES look at the individual situations.

Rick45,
Based on your thinking, what previous reaction high/low are you looking at to buy based on your mid January entry window on NGAS? Previous to now it is 6.39/6.14/5.90/5.49 in that decending order. 200 day weekly is 6.45 ema/6.25 sma. stktrader55

g034

A technical trader does not blindly buy stocks. They buy them based on the technical information, the charts represent.

While you may or may not think that's a "good" reason, a successful chartist is successful BECAUSE they follow their charts.

To each his (or her) own. If there were a "right way" to trade, it would have shown up long ago.

Warren Buffet is arguably one of the most successful traders who ever lived. You trade like him, I sure don't. Maybe we should...lol

...david...

So much of what I have been reading here, lately, sounds like someone wanting a recommendation...a stock tip, or confirmation of opinion.
That "advice" is available endlessly and everywhere today on the web, so why ask here?
If you want someone to tell you what to do, call your mother.
Sorry all you mothers out there, but this has become increasingly evident over the last few days (weeks).
I am thinking that it might be a new indicator. The Bill Cara: please tell me what to do indicator.
Come on people we aren't here to get advice as to what to buy or sell (find: Cramer), we, I think, are here to exchange information...particularly that information that might be uniquely available to us.
That notion was certainly what atracted me to this site.
I will make my own B/S decisons, gladly, as I don't want to have to justify them to you.. or anyone else.
I hope I am not sounding ... out of line.
Maybe out of lime, but not out of line.

Looks like a 4 day weekend. Nasdaq closed Tuesday, NYSE may follow . . .

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2006/12/28/nasdaq-fed-to-close-tuesday/

Looks like a 4 day weekend. Nasdaq closed Tuesday, NYSE may follow . . .

Fed closed also.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2006/12/28/nasdaq-fed-to-close-tuesday/

I hate to say this , but it appears that we have lost a comrade from the living in Tradesman. I just cannot believe that he would not reply as to his absence from this site. Even Bill tried to get him to respond. He is sorely missed in my opinion. I really looked forward to his many daily posts here.

"End looms for fund manager Miller's record run"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061228/bs_nm/leggmason_miller_dc_1

*******************************

Not even the pumpers at Barron's could save Bill Miller this year.

Stktrader, I hope you are wrong about Tradesman. Like many here, I also enjoyed his posts. Maybe he just went mountain climbing or skiing and left his electronics all behind. If not, and you are right, I bet Tradesman is flying through the universe wishing us well.

Happy New Year to all citizens of our earth.

david,

I believe the question was regarding Bill's opinion on some stocks that are oversold, NOT a "technical traders" opinion. Correct me if I am wrong, but I have never read a buy opinion on a stock from Bill that simply said; "its in the accumulation zone so buy it". I believe that Bill (as well as I) looks at both fundamentals AND technicals.

Ever hear the phrase "catching a falling knife"?...

Technicals work
Fundamentals work
Technicals plus Fundamentals work better best, IMO of course.

g034,

"Ever hear the phrase "catching a falling knife"?..."

Yes, and I've got some nasty scars on my hands from just such foolishness.

"Technicals work
Fundamentals work"

Agreed.

"Technicals plus Fundamentals work better best"

Hmmmm... Could be.

Best of luck, I hope we all do well.

...david...