Soooo....

Earnings impairment coupled with recession equals buying opportunity for LT investors in PFE, maybe. I made partial round trips on this and have a LT position in the 20s (basis). If it gets cheaper than that I will sock more away.

Heh....can't help but chuckle at the way this market just keeps chugging along. You just can't keep a bad market down. RSI - what's that? I anticipated HB&B colluding with the Administration to make everything look good until the election was over, but the reason for keeping it propped up now is not clear. Perhaps it is the excess liquidity. Perhaps we are seeing the cautious bears that have been left out, now chasing it to the top.

Since the election, I have reduced my equity exposure from 85% to 75%. Not having observed a substantial distribution day of late, I am loath to reduce exposure further. However, since I use investor sentiment as a contrary indicator, the recent rise in bullishness has me concerned. There also seems to be a consensus building that we will be fine until the end of the year. The only question is will the correction come in January or later on in the first quarter. It makes sense, for many reasons, however, if this consensus builds much higher, I may choose to reduce further exposure at the cost of paying taxes.

Contrary to the prevailing opinion on this board, I am a fan of put options. This is because despite their time premium, I can participate in an up market if I am wrong about the direction. If I am right, and the market goes down, I can cash in the put and use the funds to purchase more stock at lower prices. The recent unexpected rally (nearly 20% on the Nasdaq from the yearly lows) is a perfect example. I did not buy any puts earlier this year because of the excessive investor pessimism and caution, however, if I had, I would still be smiling a restrained smile.

KRY moving--3.91/3.92 this a.m.

jragusa, obviously there's simply an inexhaustible supply of buyers.

It just feels like a merry-go-round that keeps spinning around faster and faster, sucking in everything around it. And no one can get off due to the centrifugal force.

Oughta be quite a mess when this thing reaches such unctrollable velocity that it breaks off its foundation.

KRY up again, $4 and rising. RSI above 85, but I can't seem to pull the trigger with what appears to be big buyers scooping up large blocks driving the price up. Someone know something us little guys don't?
EJ

number2son, nothing would please me more than this market breaking off it's foundation. Hopefully, we will see the preliminary signs of this money sucking centrifuge (merry-go-round) breaking up (big distribution days with high volume would be nice). However, because of the unwarranted intrusion in Capital markets by the Fed, HB&B and the Administration, there is no way to tell when or even IF the plug will be pulled. In view of this and the fact that historically the market goes up more often than it goes down, I don't want to raise too much cash, yet. BTW, I NEVER EVER go more than 50% cash.

Thinking of buying some index puts soon. Is anyone looking at selling Mar or Jun 07 22.50 PFE puts or is it to early?

what happened to gold at 10am?

what happened to gold at 10am?

Sold my USO on Friday after 3 1/2 pt. 7 day move.

Contemplating putts on the Regional Bank index (RKH) as it closes in on the 20 & 50 day. It's moving today I guess because they expect interest rates to go down real soon. The FOMC meet comments next week will be interesting and a pivotal point for RKH. Even if rates start to drop in the Spring, if we're in a recession, where will people get the money to pay those mortgages to these banks? I guess they'll just roll it over into new loans, but it seems this would make things worse IMHO.

Picked up some WFMI last week for short term and may close soon with trailing stop.

Thinking of reducing exposure on KRY and AUY, but have same reaction as EJ. More apt to cut back on some AUY as Bill mentioned Kramer is jumping all over it.

Why not keep raising your stops on AUY so that you ride it up as Cramer pumps it, but you don't fall back down when people realize how overbought it's getting?

Taking a postion in Agilent (A) here around its 50 day ma off the pullback. Also looking at IBB.

According to the Fly, from Knobias, Cramer was also positive on KRY:

"In another segment Cramer was positive on gold, highlighting Crystallex (KRY) and Yamana (AUY) at its 52-week high while gold prices are significantly lower."

Does anyone know why amgen is acting so weak?

Thanks

Fazelli

Sounds like a good idea. Thx.

Actually like Go34's trading cues for getting in and out of gold, but with pumping by Krmr other tactics might come in play.

Check out action in WYNN today. Absolutely nuts.

Out of AUY. Holding KRY.
EJ

Similar actions.

Out of AUY in 2 controlled accounts; reduced AUY in core. Continue to hold KRY.

With the action at the end of the day, I exited my entire AUY position with 2 minutes left in trading. If Cramer pumps it again, I may have lost out on some more gains, and the same is probably true if the dollar slides from here, but the gains were too much to risk.

Im sidelined and cautious.

Sold my paper gold and silver last Monday for above my target. Methinks a bit of black box mal-function over at the central fund. I just traded the numbers.
My black box worked *perfectly*

Im starting to think the PM's are a honey-pot.

I think we've got some red hats painted blue.

Cheers!

Thanks Bill for the blog. I'd download this blog at 640 kbps from the middle of the carib sea if I had to!

EJ-

As per my WIR comment, I'm expecting it to retest 640 area then base again above it. $USD basing, subject to this week's numbers. The situation is very fluid now and it is wise to maintain a position and prudent to occasionally take profits on others IMHO (per g034's "system").

Good luck. Sounds like you are trading well.

Seamus said:

"Similar actions.

Out of AUY in 2 controlled accounts; reduced AUY in core. Continue to hold KRY."

Followers of W.J. O'Neil's CANSLIM method will take note that AUY just broke out of a 28 week double bottom w/handle base just 2 weeks ago. The breakout price (pivot point) was $12, so the stock is only 13% higher as of yesterday's close.

Many stocks that break out from these types of consolidations can move considerably higher than most would ever imagine.

I present this only as something for those to consider as to why would someone actually be adding to this stock (averaging up) rather than selling, although at this point I personally would be waiting for the stock to pull back.

I have no idea what time frame Seamus or others here are trading the stock are using; whether they are using it as a short term trading vehicle.

Differing views make a market.

DISCLOSURE: I have no position in AUY at this point.

Mark -- Looking for some retracement and basing as well. Took my AUY profits (34% in one month is fine with me) although as I explained in the past I like to keep small core positions to trade around. AUY may have room to run, but I have noticed that the "Cramer surge" often has an equally steep sell-off. I'll add AUY if there is a retracement; if not, I'm well-positioned in the miners, cash and bonds for the coming months. I held KRY because of the sheer upside potential; no one knows when or if an announcement will come that shoots this thing skyward (or plummeting back to earth) and i don't want to be caught in between trades when it comes...
EJ

Todd

I manage multiple accounts with different time frames. I closed AUY positions yesterday in two managed accounts after @25% gain in 3-4 weeks. Risk management for individauls with a lower risk tolerance. When the RSIs were in the high 80s it was time to close positions. (Kramer on the bandwagon changed initial plans.) This timeframe for those accounts was unusual, but I believe you have to follow the tape and be flexible when conditions change.

Reduction in core was a similar time frame trade. Core position retained is over a year old at a cost basis under 5.

I expect a gold retest of 640 and remember the recent battle between bulls and bears to hurdle it. Not adding to any positions, but will consider based on retracement and market conditions.