Not smart to short these banks, though, I imagine. I suspect China has ways to support their stock prices that are unsubtle, probably flat-out illegal in the US.

A friend who works for HBSC in China expects good news till what he called "the post-Olympic hang-over" .... LOL

Some interesting articles I found to direct our trading ... or to make a muddle of our mind:

1) About private equity that probably will boost the stock indexes for a while more but increasing risks, and making gold a favourable haven
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/pirate-equity-2/2006/12/18/

2) A long explanation about gold in inflation/deflation times and why it is not the perfect haven
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north497.html

3) Personal insolvency is increasing a lot in Great Britain: maybe easy credit is over?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=AP3SZTZOX2VS3QFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2006/12/29/cniva29.xml

4) Art market is hotter than ever: inflation is alice and kicking...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9e496bbc-96a4-11db-8ba1-0000779e2340.html

I'm long gold (but considering my Euro point of view, I'm mostly cash).

Thanks Bill for all you are doing for us.
You made me discover how blind I was, and I'm learning everyday so much thanks to you and your readers' comments.
I wish you and your family the best.

Only sticking my head in for a few minutes before I'm out the door . . .

Uranium began the year at about $36.25/lb. Today's (Dec. 27 report) weekly price is $72.00/lb, showing a yearly gain of 98%! I noticed the Russians are negotiating (pressuring) the U.S. to lift tarriffs on Russian uranium sales. With prices like above, no wonder the Russians want a bigger piece of the pie.

Silver is up 43% after starting the year at $9.04/oz, trading recently at $12.89/oz. Gold has risen 22%, with a year-to-year gain of $110, trading recently at $631.30/oz.

Bill, you certainly had it right calling it the Year of the Metals (zinc & nickel the big winners). Thanks a lot for your insights.

What's the 2007 theme?

--NOAA's map shows a El Nino developing (commodity price spike? Nat Gas down?)

--Countries divergence from the dollar?

--Oil? And all the other usual suspects?

--Or is it something unexpected and that's why we manage risk?

Happy New Year and best of health to all in 2007!

Thanks for all your insight Bill, have a Happy New Year!

Ralph
http://www.successfulonlinetrading.com/breadth%20report.htm

As of this morning, FXI is 37% above its 200 day average. Happens all the time with individual stocks, but with indexes? Not too often.

Non investing post, but somewhat relevant in a chaotic way.

Today I found Cara Cara oranges at Costco!
I also found $12.99 beef tenderloins that you used to be able to find every week for $9.99 per pound. I'm not sure if I'm levying an allegation price gauging (or indeed inflation), but c'mon--that's a 30% increase! I elected to get a rib roast at $8.29 (bone in) per lb.

My habit the last few years is to have a formal dinner (where we dress informally) for New Year's. My greatest pleasure in life (besides being a perfect mother and wife (HAH!)) is to feed people--to feed people interesting things that they might not otherwise find on their own. I think that is Bill's passion as well. He feeds us stuff that we might not otherwise have the skill or imagination to prepare for ourselves. For that I am grateful. This banquet has been a glorious one.

Within the last two weeks, my beloved cat, Theo, has gone missing as has our revered Tradesman. I don't think that Theo will show up--we live among hostile things (well, Theo was pretty hostile, too, if you were small, furry and scurried). Perhaps our sage Tradesman will utter a peep for us and assuage our concern; otherwise his absence is a chasm not easily filled.

The New Year is always a cathartic event: wipe the board and clap the erasers--just don't choke on the chalk cloud! Just think how much more progressive we would be if we treated each day as if it were the start of a New Year. Perhaps that will be my sole resolution--a powerful one I think.

Though I cannot invite you to my home, I can invite you to my virtual meal: Standing Rib Roast with Rosemary Thyme--find it here: http://www.epicurious.com/recipes/recipe_views/views/15824
Shrimp on Boston Bibb Lettuce with green apple and garlic sauce; Zinfandel roasted shallots; Pear and Pomengrant Salad (http://www.bittersweetbistro.com/pearpom.html) with Walnut Vinaigrette and Balsamic Glaze. I'm not sure that I'll find merchantable poms, but I'll substitute dried cherries or currants; Potatoes Dauphonise; chocolate almond torte. We're having a Red Zinfandel with dinner--a little digression from the Bordeaux's and Cab's that I generally serve. With the appetizer course, I'm serving a Larus Viognier/Rousanne. Champagne of midnight (nothing expensive) if we can keep our eyes open long enough.

My son says that when we have these parties (and they are small, no more than 10 people including us) he's never heard people laugh so loudly. Laughing is life's elixir, though it is amazing how few imbibe it.

Of course being from the South, NY day is black eye peas--and you cannot have black eyed peas without a beautifully cured Virginia ham and some some collard or kale greens. Oh the pleasures of being in a place where barbecue is a noun and not a verb!

I appreciate all of the generosities enjoyed here from Bill and respondents. For those of you lurking, I encourage you to make a resolution to make ONE COMMENT to this blog in the New Year.

So may every day be the start of a New Year for each of you, and may you drink frequently from the cup of laughter. Happy New Year to all!

Leisa, Our cat, Parsipal, was moved from USA to Poland and was gone for a month in a new land and still came back in the middle of the night. So, there is still hope for Theo. I will be wishing his return.

BTW, you write beautifully, just like Bill.

Happy New Year to ALL.

Ghosalb...thank you. Thank you.

As Leisa requests, I'll comment rather than simply lurk: I am grateful for this site dialogue; it provides the best window I've found into our incredibly complex, powerful and subtly networked global economy. Here lie many pearls of great value. Bill, your 'social equity' account has indeed grown bountiful!

Also, I too, Leisa, am grateful to know 'barbeque' as a noun!

"Of course being from the South, NY day is black eye peas--and you cannot have black eyed peas without a beautifully cured Virginia ham and some some collard or kale greens. Oh the pleasures of being in a place where barbecue is a noun and not a verb!"

Ah, Leisa, as a yankee with the good fortune of being married to a Southern Belle I have to admit that I truly dread this southern tradition.

My strategy (which I will share for the benefit of all non-Southerners who are similarly afflicted) is to mix the greens and peas in cornbread - this makes it all halfway palatable, but you must still chew and swallow as quickly as possible.

Wishing all a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.