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December 4, 2006

A not pleasant Outlook 2007 from UBS, Mon., Dec. 4, 2006, 8:59 AM

In their Outlook 2007 Report on the global macroeconomic environment, UBS Investment Research is calling for sub-trend global growth, ebbing profitability and a weaker US dollar.

The UBS global forecast is admittedly sub-consensus, but is in line with David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch.

UBS has a very high conviction toward this view, particularly with respect to the U.S. "hard landing" and they opine that there will be a lagging, negative impact on Europe, Japan and the emerging economy complex.

It looks to me like 2007 could be a slow grinding market environment like 1973 and 74. Trust me, based on my direct experience, that is the Stagflation market killing fields I have often said we want to avoid, but, after reading ML and UBS today, I feel it is looking increasingly likely to become the case.

Download UBS Outlook 2007 report.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 4, 2006 08:59:54 AM | Category: Economics

Discourse

Everything points to weaker USD and higher Gold. Even TH like cramer are now saying this.

Maybe we shall see a tulip bulb scenario with the yellow metal starting in 2007.

Posted by: NYUgrad [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 9:15 AM [link]

Posted by: DollarBill [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 9:46 AM [link]

One more on the "not pleasant outlook" from Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist, Jeff Saut. http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11718

Posted by: bb [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 12:16 PM [link]

Posted by: DollarBill [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 1:33 PM [link]

I know this is off topic, but I see that KRY is taking off again. On a completed unrelated note, I believe someone importent there got relected.

hmm...

Posted by: Alex [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 2:28 PM [link]

KRY - Up 9%. Only 5 days have seen this trading volume since June. I've found nothing in the VZ press. If anything, you'd think an early approval less likely after the election. What gives ?

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 3:25 PM [link]

Re KRY: Isn't this just a relief rally, due to fact that the elections went by without major disruptions?

---->«Venezuela Bonds Rise to 8-Month High as Vote Free of Violence

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's bonds rose to an eight-
month high after President Hugo Chavez won re-election in a vote
that was free of the violence and controversy that some
investors had thought would mar it.
The yield on the government's 9 3/8 percent dollar bonds
due in 2034 fell to near 7 percent as opposition challenger
Manuel Rosales acknowledged Chavez's victory last night. Little
violence was reported during the vote. Many Venezuelans had
stocked up on food and water in the days before the election on
concern that fighting would break out between the two sides.
``It removes a level of uncertainty from the market,'' said
Jim Craige, who helps manage $6 billion of emerging market bonds
at Salomon Brothers Asset Management in New York. ``There was
also no violence over the weekend. That helps.''
The yield on Venezuela's 9 3/8 percent dollar-denominated
bonds due 2034 fell 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to
7.08 percent, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The price, which
moves inversely to the yield, rose 1.5 cents to 127.50 cents on
the dollar.
The average yield gap on Venezuelan dollar bonds over
similar-maturity Treasuries dropped 13 basis points to 2.31
percentage points, according to data compiled by JPMorgan.«

Posted by: tinman [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 4:07 PM [link]

Guys-

No need to go OT. Put KRY news and spec in the Daytraders thread.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 4:49 PM [link]

I'll post this here as I think it most appropriate. For those who haven't read it, John Hussman's piece on timing gold trading.

http://www.hussman.net/html/gold.htm

Note anything about present conditions and those in the article?

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 5:42 PM [link]

The USD might rally some soon, here is an Elliott wave count which support this scenario:

http://globalgold.blogspot.com/2006/12/us-dollar-index-usdx-elliott-wave.html

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 7:30 PM [link]

Three major gold miners(ABX_GG_NEM), are at critical levels: they are aproaching old or brand new triple top formations.
Recent prices increases had light volume: not a good sign.
Can tomorrow be the day they breakout?

Posted by: Bullion [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 8:00 PM [link]

Bullion your correct, even though NEM has not kept pace noting it was over $ 53 a share back in early June. As for that time period and ABX and GG, may take a few days to work-off some overhead supply combined with options exp. 9 sessions away noting the rally I was pleasantly surprised we got green today accross the board. Interesting how YRI and KRY were side by side in the top 10 today noting Bill's discussion of Cramer's pumping of the former and how overpriced it is in relationship to it's prov. and prob. reserves.

Posted by: Rick45 [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 4, 2006 10:41 PM [link]

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