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November 11, 2006
Week #45 (2006-11-11) in Review (FINAL)
This week was a split week: pre-election and post-election. Post-election, the Democrats were voted into control of both houses of the U.S. Congress.
As I see it, from my perch as an unbiased international observer, the Republicans, whom I occasionally refer to (perhaps unkindly) as "pigs at the trough" " the "get while the getting's good" crowd " were replaced in Washington by the trade protectionist crowd.
As a resident in a country that is America's biggest trading partner, I view the Dem's, not as a "tax and spender" " which (in the case of spending) the current President seems to have proven to be an unfair label -- but (perhaps unkindly) primarily as a committee wheel-spinner and an over-protective, anti free-trader.
Of course these are generalities, but due to the perceived if not real differences between these two political parties, there is now the need, I believe, to shift one's investment strategy. I believe that prior to the next Presidential election campaign season there will be attempts by the Democrats to show fiscal conservatism, and free themselves of the old labels.
While this week's change in political control ought to make for an interesting two years in business and finance, it's the next three to six months in the U.S. equity market I'm worried about. Regardless of which political party said or did this or that, I believe that the momentum of the market shifted to a negative bias ten days before the election.
It will be interesting now to see how the whole political drama plays out because, as I see it, "Trade War" is the next big thing the capital markets are going to be faced with.
The big armament in a global trade war is not WMD. It's protectionist negotiating bias and legislation on the one side and monetary policy changes and currency moves on the other side. That's WMED! The E stands for economic.
How this will play out is going to materially affect the equity market, and I believe that none other than Wal-Mart, the world's biggest importer and retailer, is probably going to be the star of the show.
I referred to a "starring" role for Wal-Mart now; I'm just not so sure it will be a winning performance. You see, I haven't yet decided whether these new Dem's are going to be like Clinton Dem's (ie, good for business and for Wal-Mart) or like old Dem's (ie, protectionist).
At least I do know that Wal-Mart stays in the Cara 100.
So, today, in the U.S. equities section, I will zero in on Wal-Mart " actually WMT (the stock) because this is a trading blog and we are traders. We may also be Wal-Mart shoppers, which is part of the story, but that's not what I want to talk about today.
Have a good week; I know I will. I'm sorry I couldn't spend more time on this WIR and could not get it out until 9pm ET Sunday evening (errors and all).
But I had places to go, people to meet, etc, and then I had to get some sleep. I'm not used to rushing so much.
So now you know my mind-set, let's see what happened in global capital markets this week.
Global Market Summary
International Equities: Japan's Nikkei225 and Topix dropped -1.5 pct and -2.3 pct respectively this week. That means the annual YTD change is -4.1 pct for the TOPIX and absolutely flat for the Nikkei Dow. The South Korean Kospi gained +0.9 pct W/W, which gave it a YTD performance of a paltry +1.2 pct. Big movers on the upside this week and YTD are Hong Kong's Heng Seng (+0.8 pct /+27.0 pct YTD) and the Mexico Bolsa (+3.4 pct/+34.5 pct YTD). The Japanese equity market is the one you need to keep an eye on.
U.S. Equities : All four major market indexes (SP500, DJIA, Nasdaq and Russell 2000) were up 1.0 pct and 2.5 pct W/W, but after the first 9 trading hours until mid-day Tuesday, it was all downhill sliding. The question now is what will legislation in increased minimum wages do to corporate profitability and dividends, plus wage inflation. We don't know, but the market will soon take a position, which I think is going to be negative.
Dow 30 : There were 20 Dow stocks up, and 10 down. The election on Tuesday, with its incredible story-telling and cheerleading on Financial TV, made things very difficult to analyze.
U.S. Sector ETFs: There were 8 ETF's up and 2 down (healthcare and telco services). I suppose the negative trading spoke a lot about traders' fears that a Democrat controlled legislature will beat up these sectors.
First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #5 (+1.5 pct); peaked Thursday noon
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #6 (+1.3 pct); peaked Thurs. noon; DD up 4.9 pct
20: Industrials (XLI): #4 (+1.7 pct); A huge first 9 hours this week
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #1 (+2.0 pct); Holiday spending? AXP up +3.2 pct
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #9 (+0.3 pct); WMT (-2.2 pct) & min. wage
35: Healthcare (IYH): #10 (-1.6 pct); Dems & healthcare controls
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #3 (+1.9 pct); M&A deals galore
45: Tech (SMH chips): #2 (+1.9 pct); CSCO and HPQ doing well
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #9 (-2.1 pct); VZ down -3.0 pct, T -2.0 pct
55: Utilities (XLU): #7 (+0.9 pct); but lower hi, lower low
Bonds: Bonds lifted 11-12bp, but yield curve very badly inverted this week.
Commodities: $CRB was up +0.3 pct W/W due to oil moving up +4.1 pct W/W.
Oil & Gas: $WTIC futures jumped +4.1 pct to $61.64 as $USD is falling.
Gold: $GOLD and $SILVER were up +0.1 pct and +3.8 pct W/W respectively. Gold had a bad day Friday, pulling down gains from another good week. Don't trade gold without considering the falling $USD.
Goldminers: $XAU was down -0.3 pct, but the GDX was up +0.5 pct and XGD (TSX) +1.8 pct. Bernanke took his money aggregates speech to Germany on Friday. He said that (per Econoday) "because the relationship between monetary growth and output and inflation has broken down, the Fed no longer set targets for monetary growth and does not place heavy emphasis on trends in monetary aggregates for policy decisions." Although Friday was a reactionary down day, Gold traders will continue to watch M3 regardless of who is running the Fed or what that person says in speeches.
Forex: $USD lost -0.8 pct W/W to close at 85.05, which is now well below the 50/200-day Moving Averages. Now that the election is over, the dubious timing of geopolitical "events" is likely to disappear from the radar screen. W/W the Euro was up +1.0 pct (to 128.47) and the Pound +0.6 pct (to 191.20).
Sector ETF:
Eight of the ten sector ETF's I follow here were up this week, and by quite a bit, but all the bullish action took just 9 trading hours leading into the election. The rest of the week was a downer. I continue to warn: "Raise your stops. You'll need them."
There is little anyone can take away from this week's trading action. There were just too many influences to make much sense of what happened from Monday to Friday.
For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
XLE was up +1.50 pct to close at 57.45, which made it ETF performer #5 this week. But the price of $WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) was up by +4.06 pct, for a second week of solid gains.
I think this is all about a falling $USD. Right now we have an 85 cent USD, a $61.54 $WTIC, and a 12,108 Dow. I suppose we could have a 50 cent USD, $100 oil and 15,000 Dow.
But who wins that game; other than those fortunate enough to receive a piece of $100 billion Wall Street bonuses? Certainly in America you'd have more homeless, more economic crime, very high interest rates, and much higher taxes on inflated asset prices.
Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
All the oils had very big weeks. Total was up +6.1 pct W/W. But XLE dropped -1.0 pct on Friday, so watch it on Monday.
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Imperial Oil was up +4.5 pct W/W and +15.8 pct over 4 weeks. EnCana was up +3.6 pct W/W and +8.4 pct over 4 weeks. Suncor was up +2.7 pct W/W and +9.3 pct over 4 weeks.
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) gained +1.29 pct W/W to close at 33.71, which included a loss of -0.94 pct on Friday.
DuPont (DD) was very strong, up +4.9 pct W/W. Most of the base metals had a bad week due to crashing base metal commodity prices on Friday. So prices were all over the board.
Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago I wrote: "China may have an amped alumina market, with current production running close to +60 pct Y/Y, but the shares of China Aluminum were crushed (-4.8 pct W/W)." This week shares of China Aluminum (ACH) were up +12.0 pct.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was up +1.71 pct W/W to 34.50. But, for those looking for confirmation from the Dow Transports, I still don't see it.
The Dow Transports Average ETF is IYT. That's a chart you have to watch.
At the Amex.com website, you can see the list of IYT holdings. Fedex (FDX) is the key player. Several weeks ago, I asked you to keep an eye on it.
The Daily price action for FDX shows a clear top back on October 16 at $117.00, and I see an awful lot of gap higher opens followed by distribution. The stock has gone nowher for four weeks and yet the TH's tell you this Dow transport index is being led higher by Fedex. The Transports did have a great week, but as for Fedex leading the pack...Ain't true.
But in the pre-election build-up, the CEO's of Fedex and UPS were spouting their stuff on CNBC. I guess everybody is in somebody's pocket.

As the saying goes, "You can fool some of the people some of the time;"
I said this before: "The only thing that is going to save the Dow Transports at this point is economic expansion. Maybe in Europe, but America has lost its Tickee."
Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Boeing had a huge week, going up +7.1 pct, but GE continues to have a lousy year. The Nov 20 article in BusinessWeek seems to say that CNBC is a drag on GE because TV commercials are way down since 2002.
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 22: next one is due Dec. 22)
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +1.99 pct W/W to close at 37.33. That almost makes up for the -2.2 pct loss of the prior six sessions.
A lot of retailers pay minimum wage, which will hurt them when the Dems raise the wage rate.
Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
JC Penny (JCP) and Whirlpool (WHR) had huge weeks.
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
This week the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) gained just +0.31 pct to close at 25.55.
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Most of the big name staples were down on the week, including Coke and Pepsi, Wal-Mat and Walgreens, and Altria.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
A week ago I wrote: "The healthcare ETF (IYH) was down -1.68 pct W/W. Same old, same old. "Democrats coming." Actually I also wrote: "Besides, the RSI is too high, and the sector looked like it topped out on Monday after being goosed from the 18th of the month. Need I say more?""
This week IYH dropped -1.63 pct.
Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
A week ago, prior to the Democrat victory in both the House and Senate, I wrote: "Merck (MRK -2.2 pct), Pfizer (PFE -2.5 pct), United Health (UNH -3.2 pct), Aetna (AET -2.5 pct) and Genentech (DNA -4.0 pct) all lost big. Under a Democrat-controlled House, the generic drug makers ought to shine, but most of the rest in the healthcare sector will be facing negative political "issues" as Congress struggles with budgetary overspending problems."
This week, Merck dropped -4.39 pct, Pfizer -3.16 pct, JNJ -2.24 pct and UNH -3.60 pct.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
The Financials ETF (XLF) gained +1.85 pct W/W to close at 35.71.
Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs were strong on Friday, but on the week Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs were losers. Citigroup had its first good week in a month.
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) gained +1.94 pct W/W to close at 33.60.
Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
