We'll examine the case for the Bear finally returning to finish the job. If you listen to the political rhetoric in the final days of the U.S. election campaign, you won't know what to believe.

The Fed Model on probability of recession is now up to +41-pct, and a +50-pct reading or higher is a major alert to business people and traders. At this point, the writing is on the wall " or in the case of Merrill Lynch's David Rosenberg, on Wall Street: it's not a question of "if", but "when" -- so I'll look at that.

I happen to be in the Roubini-Rosenberg camp that holds the belief that an economic recession in the U.S. will happen starting in the 1Q07 and prospects of that will cause a major decline in the stock cycle.

As long-term readers know, I went to a position of greater than +50-pct in cash in 4Q05. At the end of the day, I believe that (i) I will have the opportunity to buy selected equities at prices much lower than the average of those bought in 2006, and (ii) my long positions in precious and base metals ("The Year of the Metals" but also since my May 2005 call at the intermediate cycle bottom) have worked out extremely well.

I'll leave you with a positive thought. Just go down the tables below and look at the 1- and 2-week price performance of all the sectors and sub-sectors of the equities, and the debt. See how they differ to the Gold and Silver Producers (Table 12) for 1-, 2- and 4-weeks. Then note how much time in hours in October I spent on selling the case for gold and silver.

I don't give directed advice, but I let you know based on my experience and insights what I expect to see happening in capital markets as time moves on. In the process, I hope that I am being educational and informative because that's my enjoyment and reason for doing the blog.

So now you know my mind-set, let's see what happened in global capital markets this week.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: Japan's Nikkei225 and Topix both dropped -1.9 pct this week, with the annual YTD change being +1.5 pct and -1.9 pct respectively. The South Korean Kospi is also up a paltry amount for the YTD (+0.3 pct), although up this week (+1.1 pct). Big movers on the upside this week and YTD are Hong Kong's Heng Seng (+2.5 pct /+26.0 pct YTD) and the Mexico Bolsa (+1.8 pct/+30.1 pct YTD). The majority of indexes were down this week after all but the Kospi were up for October.

U.S. Equities : The three major market indexes (SP500, DJIA and Nasdaq) were all down close to -0.9 pct W/W and the Russell 2000 small caps were down -1.7 pct. The Russell did have a positive bounce (+0.35 pct) on Friday, from an over-sold position.

Dow 30 : There were only 8 Dow stocks up, and 22 down. Last week I wrote: "There is likely a dip in the road ahead. But you never know about these things; it could be a sink-hole." Although the damage was not excessive, this could be a start to the Bear -- at least in the intermediate cycle that could develop into a secular Bear.

U.S. Sector ETFs: There were 9 ETF's down and 1 up, but it took Friday's rally in energy stocks to save XLE on the week. The rest of the 10 ETF's were down Friday and W/W.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #1 (+0.8 pct); Nigeria=+$WTIC Fri; Solid 4 weeks, but;
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #2 (-0.3 pct); Lost it all Friday; PM were strong
20: Industrials (XLI): #4 (-1.0 pct); Sliding since Oct 17th
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #6 (-1.2 pct); Holiday shopping worries
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #9 (-1.9 pct); WFMI down -28.6, WMT -6.3 pct
35: Healthcare (IYH): #8 (-1.7 pct); MRK, PFE, UNH, DNA lost big
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #5 (-1.2 pct); UBS down -5.3 pct, MS & LEH -2.8 pct
45: Tech (SMH chips): #7 (-1.6 pct); Led down by INTC -2.8 pct
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #10 (-2.1 pct); VZ down -5.5 pct, T -1.5 pct
55: Utilities (XLU): #3 (-0.5 pct); EXC dropped -2.3 pct

Bonds: Nervousness relates to lower unemployment, higher wage inflation and stronger than expected ISM-non manufacturing, which could mean no rate cuts for a while longer, hence a small sell-off in bonds. Credit watch is also key.

Commodities: $CRB was down -0.8 pct W/W due to oil and copper being down on the week, partly offset by precious metals being sharply higher.

Oil & Gas: OPEC and Iran (nuke) were issues in October, and now it seems to be Nigeria. But, $WTIC futures were down -2.7 pct W/W despite Friday's gain of +2.2 pct due to Nigeria.

Gold: A week ago $GOLD and $SILVER were down -0.3 pct and -1.4 pct W/W respectively, but I said: "I still believe: The glitter is returning". This week, $PLAT jumped +12.0 pct, $PALL +3.8 pct, $SILVER +4.6 pct and $GOLD +4.7 pct. Bingo.

Goldminers: A week ago the miners were up sharply. Two weeks ago I wrote: "The miners were down very minimally this week thanks to a crushing they took on Friday. Hang in there." This week, $XAU was up +4.8 pct, GDX +5.3 pct and XGD (TSX) +6.4 pct. Bernanke takes his money aggregates speech to Germany on Friday. Let's watch.

Forex: As Friday's econ data seems to have put Fed rate cut on hold, the $USD gained +0.42 pct on Friday, which produced a gain of +0.21 pct W/W to close at 85.71. Also, there always seems to be a "geopolitical event" to hold the $USD up. Last weekend, it was a multi-nation naval force to intercept a tanker in Straits of Hormuz, supposedly headed to Iran with nuclear-related cargo. This weekend, its Nigeria. I'm growing weary with the timing of these "events".

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Sector ETF:

Nine of the ten sector ETF's I follow here were down this week, and except for Friday's push on crude oil, which helped XLE, it would have been all 10 down. A week ago, when 7 of 10 were up, I wrote: "; but I continue to warn: "Raise your stops. You'll need them."

I repeated, "I am fixed on the lofty RSI-7 values for the Weekly and Daily for each of these major market indexes. They are, like, inflated. Note the progression W/W for the RSI-7, which is making a turn (Daily will now start to affect Weekly).

This week, these values were:

$COMP Weekly RSI-7 (66.7) and Daily RSI-7 (41.9)
$SPX Weekly RSI-7 (68.8) and Daily RSI-7 (38.2)
$DJX Weekly RSI-7 (69.9) and Daily RSI-7 (37.9)
$RUT Weekly RSI-7 (60.2) and Daily RSI-7 (40.5)

A week ago, these values were:

$COMP Weekly RSI-7 (73.0) and Daily RSI-7 (54.7)
$SPX Weekly RSI-7 (80.3) and Daily RSI-7 (60.8)
$DJX Weekly RSI-7 (79.7) and Daily RSI-7 (63.9)
$RUT Weekly RSI-7 (70.5) and Daily RSI-7 (56.5)

Two weeks ago, these values were:

$COMP Weekly RSI-7 (72.1) and Daily RSI-7 (64.2)
$SPX Weekly RSI-7 (78.2) and Daily RSI-7 (73.9)
$DJX Weekly RSI-7 (77.4) and Daily RSI-7 (76.1)
$RUT Weekly RSI-7 (69.2) and Daily RSI-7 (62.4)

Three weeks ago, these values were:

$COMP Weekly RSI-7 (76.2) and Daily RSI-7 (80.9)
$SPX Weekly RSI-7 (77.5) and Daily RSI-7 (78.9)
$DJX Weekly RSI-7 (76.3) and Daily RSI-7 (83.1)
$RUT Weekly RSI-7 (69.6) and Daily RSI-7 (77.3)

Four weeks ago, these values were:

$COMP Weekly RSI-7 (70.7) and Daily RSI-7 (69.8)
$SPX Weekly RSI-7 (73.6) and Daily RSI-7 (70.8)
$DJX Weekly RSI-7 (73.4) and Daily RSI-7 (77.0)
$RUT Weekly RSI-7 (62.2) and Daily RSI-7 (63.8)

As I wrote to you a week ago, and the week before that: "What these numbers represent is the mathematical sequencing of the broad indexes reaching a peak and rolling over. As the Daily data momentum weakens, it will adversely affect the Weekly data. If that action continues, then prices will begin to challenge the technical support levels that technical analyst Colin Twiggs has laid out."

So this is a real-time lesson in using Relative Strength Index, and it will continue.

When I see the Weekly RSI-7 falling below 70 after being in the high 70's and even 80's, then it's like watching a flood.

The key, of course, is the long-term (Monthly) data.

$COMP MONTHLY RSI-7 (62.0) after hitting a recent high of 70
$SPX MONTHLY RSI-7 (74.9) after hitting a recent high of over 80
$DJX MONTHLY RSI-7 (78.0) after hitting a recent high of over 80
$RUT MONTHLY RSI-7 (62.8) after hitting a recent high of 70

At the cross-over point, where the Monthly RSI-7 drops below 70 on all 4 major indexes, the intermediate cycle will be widely recognized to be bearish " typically called a correction in a Bull market, as was the case in May of this year.

And, where the Monthly RSI-7 drops below 50 on all 4 major indexes, most traders will say the primary Bull has turned into a Bear.

As for me, I called it a Bear environment that started back on May 10. From that point on, I was advising only short-term long trades (except for precious metals and $USD, which were in longer term patterns " up for PM and down for $USD.

Since the primary Bull was still intact, some of my bullish calls (tech in July and consumer staples) worked out well; but after May 10 I believe the market became a distributive environment where major capital pools were moving funds out of many of the economically-sensitive stock groups (that would be hurt by a slowing economy) and to both extremes, into: (i) bonds and interest-rate sensitive equities that would be aided by a future ratcheting down of Fed rates, and (ii) precious metals that would be aided by reflation attempts to stop the process of economic slowing due to problems in the very important auto and housing sectors.

I'd like to repeat a few paragraphs from a week ago:

Yes, as readers have pointed out, it was during the late-2005 rally that I went to cash " never 100-pct as someone said, but about 75-pct, and then a bit less (although never less than 50-pct) " because I believe in the 4.5-year Kitchin cycle thesis (which includes a 3 year Bull phase and a 1.5 year Bear phase) and the U.S. Bull started between 4Q02 and 1Q03 depending on the sector.

So there are times in market cycles when portfolios need to be protected more than other times when the owners and managers of capital ought to be more aggressive. This is the time to be defensive, and as the reader points out, the Inverse ETF's are tools to protect the value of a portfolio.

One reader sent me this note last weekend: "How about the new ProShares inverse ETFs that allow traders to short the market by going long? The costs are just 0.95-pct. Does it make sense to hedge the equity position in a portfolio with ETFs like SDS or QID (double inverse of SP500 and Nasdaq) or SH and PSQ (single inverse)?"

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As I explained last week, and will again: You can buy inverse ETF's, which is a short position, or you can buy a put option on the index, sector or sub-sector ETF. If you buy the put, the cost of the option is reduced from the value of your portfolio, but you have the insurance in hand that if the holding drops in value, you can sell it at a high fixed price called the strike price.

The other form of protection, which is what I have recommended, is to tighten the stop loss orders, and let the market come to you, if it does. If it continues to head north, your long positions are intact, and you didn't have to pay for insurance. It goes without saying that if the market heads north, your puts become less valuable, but your inverse ETFs become losers.

So, you have to make the decision.

You can see that I was responding (to that reader's comment and query) that, yes, I think it might be the appropriate time to buy the inverse ETFs because they represent an effective hedge to an over-priced portfolio.

This week the SP500 dropped -0.95 pct and the Nasdaq composite dropped -0.84 pct, but the SH (short SP500) gained +1.29 pct and the PSQ (short Nasdaq) gained +1.02 pct.

The double inverse ETF's were even better performers: SDS (ultrashort SP500) gained +2.48 pct and the QID (ultrashort Nasdaq) gained +1.77 pct on the week.

I don't recommend buying calls and puts unless the market circumstances are extreme, and the price momentum has clearly reversed.

I also don't recommend that long-term oriented traders all of a sudden become short-term oriented, but the concept of swing trading has been around for well over 200 years, and used for purposes of long-term, intermediate-term, and short-term trading as well as hour-to-hour day trading.

I note that many service providers have built the swing trading concept into solid marketing businesses although some totally misrepresent themselves as having "discovered" the phenomenon. This concept of price momentum, of which RSI, Stochastics, MACD, etc are all derivatives, was actually applied by Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744-1812) in Frankfurt, and I'm sure by others before him.

I see people today try to take ownership of old concepts because, as we all know, the word "proprietary" is a strong one in branding and marketing, but understanding the simple principles is far more important to you than spending money on "black box" systems.

With a general grasp and perspective of highly developed concepts that I label as fundamental, quantitative, technical and economic, most traders can make decisions that put themselves into top quartile performance " professional managers included.

The moment you gear your thinking to a single advanced concept like Fibonacci numbers/Elliot Wave, as an example, you lose perspective. With any theory of the market that has held up over the years, there must be a foundation to the methodologies " a reality if you wish " but I have never seen a single system consistently beat the market.

In fact, quite the opposite. I have watched traders and advisors lose everything because they closed themselves off from other ideas. One year, when the Dow 30 was at about 2,000, I sat in the front row with my wife to a presentation of Elliot Wave guru Robert Prechter who tried to shock the audience that the Dow would soon fall to 300. It actually went up +300 points in the next couple months, and kept going for years after that.

So, you take all this marketing stuff with a grain of salt. You understand that some theories like Dow Theory, Fibonacci/Elliot, Swing Trading, William O'Neil's CAN SLIM, Joe Granville's On Balance Volume, and so forth, have a great deal of merit, and so you learn the basic concepts. But that's all.

With any system, you might think you have got the crystal ball, but trust me, there is none. I merely joke about mine. And when I talk about Accumulation and Distribution Zones, or cycle termination points, these are referred to by Dow Theory as phases.

I try to put it all together and apply it to a framework or structure of capital markets that includes debt, equity, forex (ie, the asset classes) and as to equities, by sector and by geography. There is no magic, but there is a framework. Without one, I'd be lost, which in effect means losing.

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	56.60	1.22	2.20%	0.77%	3.47%	7.42%	7.40%	-2.97%	-3.17%	10.92%
XLB	33.28	-0.11	-0.33%	-0.33%	1.87%	4.07%	7.63%	6.22%	-2.29%	19.33%
XLU	35.58	-0.26	-0.73%	-0.53%	-0.08%	3.97%	11.19%	4.49%	13.20%	15.03%
XLI	33.92	-0.07	-0.21%	-0.96%	-0.99%	-0.96%	7.24%	5.51%	-2.84%	12.80%
XLF	35.06	-0.07	-0.20%	-1.16%	-0.17%	-0.40%	8.88%	5.67%	4.31%	14.65%
XLY	36.60	-0.28	-0.76%	-1.21%	0.47%	2.04%	10.91%	12.82%	7.68%	12.89%
SMH	32.96	-0.09	-0.27%	-1.61%	-1.96%	-2.97%	-13.08%	5.10%	-12.06%	-6.12%
IYH	65.57	-0.16	-0.24%	-1.68%	-2.11%	-0.33%	3.05%	4.11%	8.36%	7.83%
XLP	25.47	-0.12	-0.47%	-1.89%	-0.27%	0.83%	8.66%	2.99%	6.97%	9.83%
IYZ	28.46	-0.17	-0.59%	-2.10%	-0.49%	2.45%	23.90%	8.38%	11.35%	22.51%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

I also go to Yahoo Finance to study ETF's, including the top ten holdings of each. When the RSI's for each start to top out (above 70) for all or most of the top 10, I say the longs should start thinking of selling that ETF.

Remember, you have to be ahead of the crowd " even if you are a long-term investor. Being early means you miss the tops and the bottoms, but the objective here, regardless of your time frame, is to always try to stay on the right side of trend, and to rack up continuous gains without taking on too much risk.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

XLE was up modestly +0.77 pct to close at 56.60, which made it ETF performer #1 again this week. But again, the price of $WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) closed Friday up on the day " this time by +2.18 pct, which drove up the XLE by +2.20 pct. Ergo a profit on the week for EXLE, which was the only one of ten ETF's on my watchlist.

If you read last week's extensive note, you'll see that oil prices and oil stocks are starting to decline because of the economy, but on Friday's there always seems to be a geopolitical event that holds up the Crude Oil contract price, and hence the XLE, and hence the whole market from falling apart.

I mean, it seems like the gnomes or the PPT want the air to come all so softly out of the balloon they created.

If you don't think the PPT is involved, have a look at this chart. In order to push its policies, the Fed always seems to exaggerate its tactical moves, whereas the European Central Bank is, let's say, more laissez-faire.

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As I wrote two weeks ago: "OPEC and Russia are indicating that oil prices will rise here (at least stop from falling below say $55), which gives a sense of sustainability to the higher prices, which means that the algo traders are factoring in higher prices for their Net Asset Value (NAV) calculations. But, crude oil in the low 60's or mid-to-high 50's is probably mid-range for the foreseeable future. Economic recession in the U.S. will contain speculator enthusiasm for another run to record high levels. I think a slowing economy for the next year will eventually be followed by a faster paced one that will drive prices higher in the long run, and I also believe that the $USD will continuously weaken, which will push the prices higher. But, in the short to intermediate term however, I see economic storm clouds plus alternative fuels and lifestyle changes that will hold prices down " at least in the expectations of speculators. So I'm staying neutral.

As I see it, the oil stocks rallied from early October; But the momentum in this sector broke down in early September when it appeared that maybe the economic ills of the U.S. could be serious. So, I believe that for this sector, we're likely to see a ratcheting down of share prices, in brief spurts. It will be important to price these stocks on the basis of Price to Cash Flow that reflects rising inflation " say 6 and 7 times current year's cash flow.

For XOM, cash flow is estimated at $8.40 (2006) and $8.15 (2007), which means that the price today ($71.46) as a multiple of cash flow is 8.5x (06) and 8.8x (07). And the Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 values are 76.8, 73.4 and 75.1. So, fundamentally and technically, I think XOM (and the rest of these oils) are over-priced.

It could be that these oils topped out at the open Thursday. Although Crude Oil has popped back up into the 60's, it has been side-tracking since about Sept. 20, and in the last cycle there was a lower high and lower low."

XOM was down on the week through Thursday, but jumped Friday (on small volume) by +1.4 pct, which took the stock up +1.0 pct W/W. The Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 values for XOM are now 73.4, 75.4 and 76.1.

On the 30-minute chart below, note the gap open on Friday, followed by distribution. The RSI-7 (30-min chart) closed at 61.3, and as the price falls, this RSI-7 value will drop below 50, and the daily will drop below 70, and so on.

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Sometime in 1Q07, you will be looking at much lower RSI-7 values, and current share prices.

Short-term picture:

A week ago I wrote: "There are reports today of warships from 23 nations in the Gulf of Hormuz preparing to intercept on Sunday or Monday a British-flagged ship apparently loaded with parts for a nuclear weapons program bound for Iran. If this event plays out where Iran reacts by cutting off oil, then crude oil and share prices will rally " especially in Canada where the safest non-U.S. supply is " but that's not going to crank up demand/volume, and the higher price would only serve to push demand down, worsening the economic crisis in the U.S. Because of the likelihood of a Democrat controlled Congress, I have my doubts that this issue will lead to a war with Iran, but if it did, the $USD would rally and so too would oil prices, and all bets are off; It's impossible to play these geopolitical events hour by hour or day by day, but the price spurts will be quite obvious."

So this week's "story" on Friday was Nigeria. The price spurt was obvious. No, I didn't use a crystal ball. (lol)

Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
STO	26.32	0.59	2.29%	2.53%	3.74%	15.64%	9.08%	-11.26%	-21.90%	10.03%
CVX	68.91	1.12	1.65%	1.82%	5.56%	8.25%	16.64%	5.21%	11.32%	15.85%
XOM	72.15	0.96	1.35%	0.97%	3.74%	6.86%	23.40%	5.53%	13.14%	23.19%
CEO	84.84	0.73	0.87%	0.40%	1.78%	4.59%	22.62%	-1.63%	2.30%	26.42%
SU	77.14	2.24	2.99%	0.18%	2.74%	13.14%	17.72%	-6.90%	-12.27%	33.85%
PBR	88.94	1.96	2.25%	-0.08%	3.88%	9.14%	19.03%	-5.83%	-12.43%	32.75%
TOT	67.70	0.44	0.65%	-0.63%	-0.10%	4.15%	-47.95%	2.16%	-51.12%	-48.48%
ECA	48.03	1.34	2.87%	-1.15%	1.01%	5.35%	2.85%	-10.54%	-6.95%	-1.38%
IMO	35.45	1.22	3.56%	-4.60%	9.45%	10.23%	-65.91%	-6.29%	-66.08%	-62.59%

The Canadian oils showed a lot of strength at the end of the week, which I see as "probably (another) final blow off rally due to yet another geopolitical "issue". The leading stocks, IMO (+3.6 pct) and ECA (+2.9 pct), zoomed Friday but got zapped the rest of the week, going down -4.6 pct and -1.2 pct W/W respectively.

There were material changes to the Canadian Energy Trust market this week, and Peters & Company, perhaps the finest research on this topic, had plenty to say:

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Download Peters Energy Trust Assessment Nov 1 report.

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Download Peters Energy Trust Nov 3 snapshot.

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) lost -0.33 pct W/W to close at 33.28, which surprisingly was good enough to be ETF performer #2 again this week.

The entire loss was taken on Friday as the $USD jumped up in reaction to stronger than expected economic data in the U.S. This sector needs a lower $USD, which would coincide with higher profits on exports of chemicals, wood and forest products, and would also see higher precious metal prices, which would help the U.S. listed PM miner share prices.

As I wrote a week ago, "But, again, this sector may have topped out Friday at noon. I'm beginning to wonder whether the prior May 10 cycle is possible." Of course, I also think that PM prices will continue to escalate and will diverge from energy and other basic materials prices, even with a $USD that may meander at about these levels for a while.

There is a growing middle-class in China and India that will keep buying PM faster than miners can produce them or central banks will likely sell off their inventory.

Goldcorp-Glamis was up this week (+7.1 pct and +6.8 pct), and these two will move higher at the open on Monday now that the McEwen/shareholders' legal challenge is out of the way. But most of the senior miners were up this week from +3.0 to +7.0 pct even though $COPPER was down and the $USD was up.

Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PKX	72.38	1.18	1.66%	4.07%	6.63%	11.71%	44.04%	17.98%	-1.19%	37.06%
RIO	26.45	0.31	1.19%	3.64%	10.21%	19.09%	23.02%	11.46%	-1.60%	21.50%
RTP	223.20	-1.38	-0.61%	2.09%	5.68%	20.27%	18.21%	5.53%	-2.33%	39.27%
AA	28.49	-0.01	-0.04%	0.67%	3.75%	2.70%	-4.72%	-3.75%	-15.51%	13.37%
BHP	42.63	-0.17	-0.40%	0.64%	1.86%	13.65%	21.80%	0.68%	-9.22%	33.51%
GGB	15.11	0.38	2.58%	0.40%	4.21%	9.18%	-13.21%	-5.62%	-12.46%	6.94%
N	76.06	0.34	0.45%	-0.92%	-0.28%	0.08%	75.78%	-3.50%	36.31%	83.01%
PD	99.58	1.71	1.75%	-0.99%	0.80%	17.76%	33.36%	15.97%	10.40%	58.09%
NUE	57.50	0.08	0.14%	-1.47%	6.38%	12.48%	65.80%	8.78%	-1.89%	84.24%
ACH	17.06	-0.37	-2.12%	-4.75%	-2.85%	-73.62%	-78.51%	-73.64%	-81.85%	-72.79%

China may have an amped alumina market, with current production running close to +60 pct Y/Y, but the shares of china Aluminum were crushed (-4.8 pct W/W).

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A week ago I wrote: "Glamis (+9.6-pct) and Goldcorp (+8.1-pct) also looked good this week after Ontario Judge Hughes paved the way forward. And, Agnico-Eagle (+9.4-pct) [after Cara said it was his favorite at this point in the cycle " (lol)], Newmont (+4.4-pct) and Kinross (+4.0-pct) were all strong, as I said last weekend they would be. (lol) ; Gold is still trading $2 below its 200-day Moving Average and the $XAU goldminer share index is still below both 50 and 200-day MA's, so all is not perfect in my gold camp. And the GDX goldminer shares ETF was up +3.0 pct W/W, but took a hit of -1.2-pct on Friday, so this sub-sector still hasn't gotten into 5th gear yet. More on this later in the WIR, but although I can see the Daily data technical indicators are still undecided, the more important Weekly MACD, STO and RSI are looking pretty good. I'm going to keep the Miners "Under the Microscope" again this week because, as I continue to say, you need to be focusing on the best quality ones that are starting to move back into their Bull phase."

This week, GG (+7.1 pct), GLG (+6.8 pct), MDG (+6.9 pct), AEM (+6.8 pct), BVN (+4.5 pct), GFI (+4.4 pct), KGC (+4.3 pct), NEM (+4.1 pct) and ABX (+3.2 pct) were flashing the message that everything's coming up glitter.

Besides, all the four major precious metals are now ABOVE both 50 and 200-day MA's and $XAU is well above the 50-day MA and right at the 200-day MA, so this is as close to "perfect" as it's been for a long while.

I like to think I got a lot of heavy lifting done in those 80-some hours I put into this PM sub-sector in the past several weeks. (lol) But then my wife says, "Dream along, Buddy", which is her favorite expression when I get thinking that way.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The Industrials and Transport sector ETF (XLI), aka capital goods producers, was down -0.96 pct W/W to 33.92, and the Dow Transports encountered turbulence this week. Maybe a flame out?

You know you can only send transports so far on hot air.

The Dow Transport Index has fallen from just under 4800 to just over 4600. On the way up this past onth, I wrote: "The 4550 index resistance level was a walk over, but can this index (presently at 4748) test the May 10 cycle high (next technical resistance) of 5000? It couldn't do it when it almost got that high at the end of June."

Despite all those share buybacks and CNBC road shows, these vehicles are starting to rattle and slow " and you were being told it was time to rock and roll. Hahaha.

I believe in the scenario painted by Roubini and Rosenberg. I have been saying the same myself, with a minimum of research. Economic recessions and flying high transports don't go hand in hand.

As I say, "Clearly the Transports kicked into high gear after oil prices started to fall, but isn't that just a reaction to lower costs (which might be temporary) rather than a reflection of the Transports growing on the back of a strengthening economy?"

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The Dow Transports Average ETF is IYT. That's a chart you have to watch.

At the Amex.com website, you can see the list of IYT holdings. Fedex (FDX) is the key player at this point. A couple weeks ago, I asked you to keep an eye on it.

Then I said, "Does it look to be drooping to you? (lol) Remember this is the leader."

Note the weekly price action for FDX. There was a spike top ($116.98) on low volume at the close on Monday (RSI-7 on the 30-min chart was about 85), then distribution or three days down to $112. Then Friday morning at the open, boom with a gap open at $114, again on almost no volume " and at a time that oil prices were rocketing on "news" from Nigeria (meaning the transports should have rocketed down instead), followed by more distribution all Friday, to close at $112 again.

This stuff is so obvious. Why doesn't CNBC/Kudlow re-invite the CEO's of Fedex and UPS to spout their b.s. on Election Eve just to put the final period to the page of this storybook.

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As the saying goes, "You can fool some of the people some of the time;"

The only thing that is going to save the Dow Transports at this point is economic expansion. Maybe in Europe, but America has lost its Tickee as this comparison chart of the Manufacturer purchasing managers clearly shows.

Down at the bottom, for the U.S., you can see the PMI has dropped from just under 53 to just over 51 (Rosenberg says soon to be under 50).

As I say when American consumer runs dry ("no tickee"), American manufacturing machine slows down, soon followed by slowdown in transports. Shipping is part of the inventory cycle you know. That's what an Economist by the name of Kitchin told us " the Kitchin Wave, ie, growth in inventory until consumer gets sick.

Some call it the Business Cycle, but it also tracks the stockmarket cycle. Ergo 4.5 year Kitchin Wave to the stock market.

Happens all the time. (smiley goes here)

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Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BA	79.97	0.77	0.97%	0.29%	-2.17%	-4.43%	13.69%	0.72%	-6.87%	22.09%
MMM	78.58	-0.30	-0.38%	-0.47%	0.14%	3.46%	-0.67%	13.42%	-8.52%	4.58%
TYC	28.96	-0.38	-1.30%	-0.75%	-1.36%	3.69%	-2.29%	11.60%	7.50%	8.87%
CBE	89.30	0.57	0.64%	-0.78%	0.28%	1.94%	20.87%	2.44%	-4.86%	25.58%
GE	34.77	0.06	0.17%	-1.25%	-1.97%	-3.79%	-1.70%	6.23%	1.08%	2.32%
CAT	60.43	-0.13	-0.21%	-1.37%	2.42%	-11.20%	4.55%	-16.91%	-22.62%	13.00%
HON	41.71	-0.16	-0.38%	-1.39%	0.02%	-1.42%	11.35%	8.28%	-4.58%	17.73%
UTX	63.97	-0.36	-0.56%	-1.49%	-1.61%	-2.20%	13.16%	1.96%	0.96%	24.19%
ERJ	40.75	0.26	0.64%	-2.42%	-1.76%	-1.45%	3.80%	18.29%	8.09%	4.65%

Boeing managed to fly a bit on Friday (+1.0 pct), which lifted the stock a few pennies (+0.3 pct) on the week. Otherwise this was a sad looking sector.

Do you see where GE (-1.3 pct W/W) has had a lousy year "that CNBC can be such a drag " it's like that TV commercial they run on GE-NBC, the one where the radar cops are laughing as a car goes by pulling an anchor. Maybe CNBC is that anchor?

I read in Trader Magazine where CNBC leading lightbulb Ron Insana is going to leave and try his head (sorry) at a hedge fund. Actually, he'll be trying his hand because he'll likely be shuffling a fund of funds to viewers from the CNBC audience who actually made money from Talking Heads (there's that head thing again).

Did I say money-making viewer? I cannot conceivably think it could be plural.

If that's not a sign of the top, I don't recognize them. (lol)

Back to GE's lousy year, up +2.32 pct, but with a dividend yield of +2.9 pct, that's a sparkling annualized Total Return of +5.22 pct, which is quite remarkable since, if you listen to the TH's on GE-NBC-CNBC, you'll hear that the risk is equivalent to a 3-month Treasury Bill, which is only yielding +4.93 pct this week. (lol)

I think you get the point " Uncle Sam, Uncle Jeff, whatever. It's all paper.

Within a few months, however, the gnomes on State Street will have acquired all the GE paper they want, and Cara 100 GE will become more electric than general.

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(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down -1.21 pct W/W to close at 36.60. On the previous Friday, XLY was down -1.0-pct, so that's a hit of -2.2 pct in six sessions.

What about holiday shopping you say? Well, apparently Wal-Mart, in their bid to take over the U.S. and China at once, has decided to cut those prices again. Is there nothing these Razorbacks won't do to make a buck?

I guess if the consumer is not going to spend it, Wal-Mart and the other retailers aren't going to make it. That leaves everything up to the banks, which are going to get it all in the end anyway.

Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	32.39	-0.14	-0.43%	1.00%	6.09%	10.02%	-27.15%	34.57%	-5.21%	-22.05%
NKE	92.57	-0.23	-0.25%	0.77%	4.48%	5.01%	7.70%	18.45%	14.10%	6.28%
DIS	31.89	0.19	0.60%	0.50%	1.40%	1.75%	30.70%	6.16%	13.45%	28.07%
JCP	76.09	-0.84	-1.09%	-0.21%	1.64%	7.05%	34.79%	18.52%	15.80%	42.49%
TM	117.66	-0.59	-0.50%	-1.15%	1.78%	3.02%	10.12%	9.99%	-2.81%	26.33%
WHR	84.87	-0.88	-1.03%	-1.59%	-3.19%	-1.45%	2.66%	6.92%	-7.08%	5.31%
CCL	47.37	-0.82	-1.70%	-2.95%	-1.48%	-2.07%	-13.19%	23.65%	0.13%	-8.80%
SBUX	36.47	-0.85	-2.28%	-4.08%	-2.59%	-4.95%	18.14%	19.03%	-2.36%	23.92%
BC	30.71	-0.30	-0.97%	-5.39%	-4.69%	-3.73%	-24.77%	1.76%	-18.32%	-21.70%

Continuing saga.

Three weeks ago I wrote: "Did you hear Cramer touting Whirlpool (a Cara 100)? The WHR stock is now at $89, up +16.0 pct in three months, and Cramer is telling you it's soon going to $100. Houses aren't being built (as fast), but The People are running out to buy dishwashers?.. I think the message here from CNBC is that there is no recession coming. (lol)"

Two weeks ago, I wrote: "Well back up the truck Jimmy; you can haul those carcasses away. No new dishwashers for poor people. WHR dropped -1.31 pct this week, to close at $87.67."

One week ago it was: "WHR dropped again, down -1.63-pct W/W to $86.24. But look at the price chart.

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---

If you plan on trading the ideas of Jimmy Booyah, or any guru that talks like that, you better have an idea when the word "sell" goes out."

Well James Cramer, Whirlpool is no whirling dervish. WHR is down again this week " 88 cents just on Friday " and another -1.6 pct W/W to close at $84.87.

That late day rally in WHR looks a little like the rinse cycle is just about done, and more detergent to be added. Jimmy, got to get those bloodstains out;

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Actually, here is where I have to admit something I don't have time to watch this Booyah character much, but whenever I do these days it seems that he's calmed down a lot. I like that because I agree with his fans (ouch, it pains me to say this), he's pretty good. He gets the average Joe talking and into the game. Besides he researches his ideas, and he sure is no fence sitter.

Two weeks ago I wrote: "I see that EBAY was up +2.5 pct W/W. I gather that PayPal is really working out. Maybe Skype will one day as well. I like EBAY management." This week, I see you agreed with me; EBAY jumped +5.04-pct. A lot of gurus didn't like EBAY in July. Look at the stock since then. And remember what I had to say back in those dog days of summer. On Week #29 (July 22), at the bottom of the current intermediate cycle for the tech stocks, I stepped up to the plate.

Right now in the tech group, I think the stocks of good quality U.S.-based companies (CSCO, SNDK, YHOO, DELL, QCOM, EBAY, LLTC, MXIM, and GOOG) are well oversold and ready to rally -- briefly at least; Other stocks in this over-sold group (but with a few more bids in the past week) include RIMM, ADBE, INTC, ADSK, CTSH, and GRMN."

From under $24 to $32.39, EBAY has had a nice run. We're now at a cross-roads on the Monthly (resistance from long-term MA lines) and the Weekly RSI-7 is at 71.9. Maybe it keeps going north, but the risks get greater as each day passes.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

This week the Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) lost -1.89 pct to close at 25.47.

Last week, I wrote: "The RSI for the XLP (and some of the others) is getting out of hand. The RSI-7 for the Monthly and Weekly for XLP this week is 86.9 and 78.8 respectively. Nosebleed. This sector ETF has made a huge move since the afternoon on October 17th, but may have come to a close out at the end of the day Thursday. Careful here. Distribution Zone."

Well, XLP this week lost almost -2 pct, and the RSI-7 dropped from 86.9 to 73.1 on the Monthly data series and from 78.8 to 55.5 on the Weekly data series.

I think you are starting to catch on.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	44.13	0.10	0.23%	3.28%	-1.05%	-4.07%	14.50%	7.37%	-6.21%	20.94%
WAG	42.82	0.61	1.45%	-0.05%	-1.74%	0.38%	-5.66%	-11.46%	4.08%	-6.28%
PG	63.40	0.13	0.21%	-0.25%	1.15%	0.49%	7.86%	6.64%	12.77%	13.30%
PEP	63.24	0.03	0.05%	-0.47%	0.68%	-1.83%	5.82%	0.64%	8.20%	7.10%
KO	46.50	-0.21	-0.45%	-0.79%	-0.53%	3.89%	13.69%	5.63%	10.93%	9.21%
MO	81.18	-0.18	-0.22%	-0.82%	1.90%	3.26%	8.27%	1.26%	11.01%	9.27%
DEO	74.13	-0.36	-0.48%	-1.05%	2.25%	3.02%	24.46%	5.27%	11.12%	25.41%
BUD	46.95	-0.27	-0.57%	-1.57%	-0.78%	-0.28%	7.51%	-1.63%	2.35%	11.79%
WMT	47.53	-0.76	-1.57%	-6.31%	-3.73%	-1.63%	2.81%	6.26%	1.80%	0.17%
WFMI	46.26	-13.86	-23.05%	-28.56%	-28.56%	-24.71%	-40.00%	-9.24%	-25.57%	-38.39%

A week ago I joshed: "My favorite drinks were being consumed a lot this week I see. Diageo (DEO) was up +3.34-pct W/W, which means it's up YTD an astounding +25.8-pct. :-) If you stay long these stocks, you may need a few of Diageo's products."

This week, DEO dropped -1.1 pct W/W, but how about Wal-Mart (WMT -6.31 pct) and Whole Foods Markets (WFMI -28.56 pct) with stunning drops W/W.

In case you go looking for Diageo's products, here's what Wiki had to say: "Diageo is the holding company for some of the leading international alcoholic beverage brands such as Guinness, Red Stripe, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Gordon's, Crown Royal, Bulleit Bourbon, J&B, Seagram 7 Crown, VO, Bells, Archers, Pimm's, Johnnie Walker, Tanqueray, Don Julio, Baileys, Sterling Vineyards, Beaulieu Vineyard, Canoe Ridge Vineyard, George Dickel, UDL and Bushmills. Diageo also operates the Scottish whisky distilleries of Blair Athol, Caol Ila, Cardhu, Knockando, Glen Elgin, Clynelish, Cragganmore, Dalwhinnie, Glenkinchie, Glen Ord, Lagavulin, Oban, Royal Lochnagar and Talisker. Diageo also distributes Jose Cuervo products."

Johnny Walker Black did you say?

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was down -1.68 pct W/W. Same old, same old. "Democrats coming."

Actually I also wrote: "Besides, the RSI is too high, and the sector looked like it topped out on Monday after being goosed from the 18th of the month. Need I say more?"

Monday, btw, for those who are keeping score, was the 23rd.

Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMET	38.25	-0.09	-0.23%	5.60%	9.13%	14.52%	3.71%	12.27%	4.42%	5.63%
NVS	60.82	-0.10	-0.16%	0.35%	0.33%	5.06%	13.75%	9.45%	7.34%	12.23%
GSK	53.30	-0.63	-1.17%	0.04%	-5.16%	-1.86%	4.59%	-1.09%	-6.33%	1.66%
JNJ	67.81	-0.09	-0.13%	-0.53%	-1.18%	4.23%	10.03%	7.50%	16.21%	10.80%
BMY	24.53	0.06	0.25%	-0.65%	0.16%	0.45%	5.55%	3.11%	-1.45%	15.82%
AMGN	74.87	-0.43	-0.57%	-0.86%	1.33%	1.05%	-6.83%	5.57%	12.77%	-3.41%
PFE	26.55	-0.14	-0.52%	-2.46%	-4.08%	-4.84%	11.65%	4.08%	5.48%	21.40%
AET	40.54	-0.79	-1.91%	-2.50%	0.52%	0.55%	-13.80%	24.66%	8.92%	-8.30%
UNH	47.83	-0.79	-1.62%	-3.20%	-5.66%	-7.13%	-22.52%	0.13%	2.62%	-17.06%
DNA	81.07	-0.43	-0.53%	-4.01%	-2.51%	-2.56%	-13.76%	0.90%	4.42%	-12.68%

Merck (MRK -2.2 pct), Pfizer (PFE -2.5 pct), United Health (UNH -3.2 pct), Aetna (AET -2.5 pct) and Genentech (DNA -4.0 pct) all lost big. Under a Democrat-controlled House, the generic drug makers ought to shine, but most of the rest in the healthcare sector will be facing negative political "issues" as Congress struggles with budgetary overspending problems.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financials ETF (XLF) lost -1.16 pct W/W to close at 35.06.

A week ago I wrote: "The Monthly RSI-7 is now at 79.6 after a 3½ month rally. Careful. Friday's losses in Goldman Sachs (-2.44-pct) and Lehman Bros (-2.36-pct) were serious."

Well this week, the Monthly RSI-7 has dropped to 72.9, and the big losers were UBC -5.3 pct, Morgan Stanley -2.8 pct and Lehman Bros again -2.8 pct.

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Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSR	59.15	-0.11	-0.19%	2.76%	6.25%	7.66%	10.87%	15.73%	-1.00%	40.13%
HBC	96.82	0.00	0.00%	1.65%	2.08%	3.35%	18.54%	6.64%	9.46%	21.88%
MER	86.72	-0.26	-0.30%	-0.29%	3.02%	6.46%	26.67%	20.11%	15.92%	33.31%
GS	187.13	-0.26	-0.14%	-0.82%	3.73%	6.54%	45.21%	23.03%	17.58%	44.84%
JPM	46.89	-0.01	-0.02%	-0.85%	-0.49%	0.06%	16.67%	2.69%	3.15%	26.42%
DB	123.44	-0.31	-0.25%	-1.31%	0.20%	-0.05%	24.11%	10.21%	1.79%	29.92%
C	49.59	-0.15	-0.30%	-1.53%	-0.64%	-2.86%	0.61%	2.31%	-0.52%	9.11%
LEH	74.43	-1.57	-2.07%	-2.78%	-3.43%	-0.31%	14.61%	12.48%	3.79%	20.95%
MS	74.28	0.12	0.16%	-2.83%	-2.77%	-0.17%	27.08%	9.56%	17.12%	0.00%
UBS	59.52	-0.21	-0.35%	-5.30%	-4.46%	-1.98%	20.61%	9.57%	1.21%	31.10%

Morgan Stanley dropped -2.8 pct this week. The table shows MS is totally flat over 12 months, but the table is incorrect. John Mack has made this company a winner, and the stock is up about +40 pct in the past year.

I have written in the past about this post-Mack phenomenon.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) dropped -1.61 pct W/W to close at 32.96.

The Daily-Weekly-Monthly RSI-7 for SMH is now 34.3-44.8-41.4. You might say it has a ways to go before all the sellers have gone. That's what a Bear market does; it removes the downward pressure of sellers' orders and ultimately sets the groundwork in place for a new Bull market.

A week ago I wrote: "As I look over the SMH Monthly chart, I see a three-year long base has formed, and the RSI is nowhere close to Distribution Zone levels yet, which means that there could be room to go higher presently, and that the next Bear ought not be a bad one for this sub-sector " maybe $33.50 (or 34 or 35) to say $30? " and then a very strong, early Bull move to lead the other sectors."

So the SMH is now at 32.96 and I'm looking for about 30. That's pretty close actually (-9.1 pct), which could be done swiftly.

Another thought. Some of those other sectors have already sucked in a lot of money and they are not likely to lose all the potential sellers in a market crash. Their ETF's might fall further than SMH, and for longer, but you have to keep your eye on the ball. A broad market never reaches the cycle top or the cycle bottom for all stocks in all sectors on the same day or even week or month.

The biggest losers in the past year are often the first to rally because they attract the most net buyers earliest.

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Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSCO	23.77	-0.28	-1.16%	0.21%	-3.30%	-1.33%	36.22%	35.29%	10.61%	35.75%
ADSK	36.01	-0.01	-0.03%	-0.55%	2.65%	2.59%	-15.77%	6.73%	-9.57%	-21.65%
SAP	49.04	-0.06	-0.12%	-0.89%	-0.91%	-3.64%	6.72%	8.81%	-10.07%	14.05%
INFY	50.85	-0.67	-1.30%	-1.22%	0.34%	7.62%	-36.79%	20.30%	-35.76%	-27.57%
ORCL	17.78	-0.51	-2.79%	-1.77%	-6.32%	-2.20%	41.11%	20.38%	24.16%	45.74%
QCOM	36.47	0.09	0.25%	-1.80%	-3.82%	0.27%	-17.11%	4.62%	-29.53%	-17.15%
SNDK	47.15	0.38	0.81%	-1.85%	-4.19%	-18.00%	-30.35%	-0.19%	-22.28%	-26.91%
ADBE	37.75	0.09	0.24%	-2.13%	-1.33%	-1.10%	-2.00%	16.05%	7.67%	15.51%
INTC	20.51	-0.17	-0.82%	-2.80%	-3.93%	-0.68%	-19.79%	18.15%	7.05%	-14.15%
CTSH	74.34	-0.68	-0.91%	-4.66%	-3.08%	-0.50%	46.66%	5.73%	11.14%	65.20%

A week ago I wrote: "On Friday afternoon, the price of the SMH dropped like an imitation of an Acapulco cliff diver, and if it doesn't recover on Monday, something's afoot."

Well, the recovery was shot on Monday morning by 11:30am. The rest of the week was more distribution of stock into the market. There was an awful lot of cheerleading going on at CNBC this week, leading into Nov. 7. It didn't help.

---

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

A week I wrote: "The U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) was up strongly +1.64-pct W/W to close at 29.07. The Monthly RSI-7 is at 83.0. I could be wrong on this, but Thursday's close may have been the long-term cycle high. I just feel that after a 3½-year Bull market, when I see an 83 RSI-7 on the Monthly, I'm not buying stock in a telco unless it's for dividend income and I'm darn sure the dividend is well protected. Even at that, I'd have to expect some capital loss in the next 12 months. "

Do you think I might have some readers in high places? This week, the U.S. telco sector ETF (IYZ) was down sharply -2.10 pct W/W to close at 28.48, and the Monthly RSI-7 is now at 77.7. Verizon (VZ -5.5 pct) and AT&T (T -1.5 pct) stumbled, which is what happens when they get their RSI-7 up around their eyes.

The "Thursday" btw was the 27th.

---

---

Aw, shucks, just another lucky guess.

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Here's the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) lost "0.53 pct W/W to close at 35.58. But it took Friday's loss of -0.73 pct to do it.

I have been pointing readers to the new Yahoo Finance site for ETF's like XLU where you will discover lots of useful information. I like Yahoo for advancing their product like this.

Here's the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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A week ago I wrote: "I think everybody knows I like Exelon Corp (NYSE: EXC). It's a Cara 100 company. Well late in August EXC (at $60-61) hit my Distribution Zone. It backed off in mid-September and then made a new run to even higher levels ($63) this week, where once again on Thursday it hit a Daily RSI-7 of almost 90 before pulling back sharply on Friday. This stock has tripled in four years to where it has a market cap now of $42 billion. Solid company, but it was time to let the stock go."

You've heard of "Just In Time" inventory. I seem to lose mine "just in time". Utilities (XLU): (-0.5 pct); but EXC dropped -2.3 pct.

---

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Exelon Corp [GICS 55, Cara 100]
(EXC: Yahoo Finance file)
(EXC: StockChart chart)
(EXC: Investertech chart)
(EXC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(EXC: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Bonds:

Well, a lot happened in the U.S. Treasury's this week!

T-Bond yields rose a bit this week and bond prices came off. The 30-year T-Bond yield added +1 basis point from 4.79 to 4.80 pct. The 10-year and 5-year added +4 bp 4.71 and 4.68 pct respectively. The yield on the 2-year lifted +7 bp to 4.81, while the 3-month T-Bill yield moved down -3 bp from 4.96 to 4.93 pct.

The reflation story has been making the rounds, but after that GDP number came out, bond traders started thinking less about inflation, so they jumped into bonds.

This week's econ data had them thinking more about very low unemployment and higher than expected purchasing manager numbers, which could be a sign for wage cost growth, and hence a longer pause in these high Fed rates.

All that had bond traders thinking they might take some profit off the table after several good months.

A week ago I watched what I thought was somebody pumping up bonds before the corresponding data came out, and I remarked: "The Lehman TLT gained a lot +1.51-pct to close Friday at 88.87. The AGG was also up, +0.60-pct W/W to 100.04. But these prices started to rock and roll at the open on Wednesday, not Friday after the GDP result came out, and after the FOMC meeting started on Tuesday, but well before the Wednesday 2:15pm decision/report was released. Was this just a good guess? Look at the Hourly data charts for the morning of the 25th to see what I refer to."

So this week, every interest-sensitive debt and equity instrument I monitor was down. Pump and dump maybe? In this case, I don't follow bonds closely enough. I understand the basic drivers (monetary policy, money aggregates, credit quality, econ expansion/contraction, and so forth), but I am not a bond trader.

I could say: they're too smart for me.

I mean I get bond trader reports that are useful for one thing. Rather than count sheep on the odd night I don't fall asleep in 60 seconds, I can gloss over reports like these from Merrill Lynch.

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Download ML Nov 3 Global bond report.

Download ML Oct 10 Canada bond report.

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Powerful stuff. Ought to be properly labelled: Benzodiazepine (mild tranquilizer).

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Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

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US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.93	4.92	4.96	4.77
6 Month	4.97	4.91	4.93	4.79
2 Year	4.81	4.66	4.74	4.58
3 Year	4.74	4.60	4.68	4.51
5 Year	4.68	4.54	4.64	4.48
10 Year	4.71	4.59	4.67	4.56
30 Year	4.80	4.71	4.79	4.71

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.49	3.48	3.49	3.50
2yr AAA	3.48	3.46	3.50	3.48
2yr A	3.55	3.50	3.55	3.65
5yr AAA	3.56	3.53	3.60	3.52
5yr AA	3.57	3.54	3.61	3.54
5yr A	3.59	3.58	3.63	3.56
10yr AAA	3.65	3.63	3.74	3.67
10yr AA	3.65	3.60	3.74	3.65
10yr A	3.82	3.77	3.88	3.82
20yr AAA	4.10	4.07	4.13	4.07
20yr AA	4.10	4.05	4.11	4.07
20yr A	4.16	4.13	4.20	4.18

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.18	5.05	5.17	5.02
2yr A	5.22	5.09	5.22	5.08
5yr AAA	5.25	5.15	5.23	5.15
5yr AA	5.23	5.10	5.23	5.10
5yr A	5.32	5.19	5.31	5.17
10yr AAA	5.63	5.59	5.64	5.57
10yr AA	5.48	5.37	5.45	5.37
10yr A	5.54	5.44	5.55	5.43
20yr AAA	5.88	5.80	5.89	5.79
20yr AA	6.02	5.97	5.91	5.86
20yr A	5.98	5.90	5.98	5.92

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Interest rates and bond yields.

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US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SHY	79.94	-0.15	-0.19%	-0.44%	-0.15%	-0.17%	-0.47%	0.31%	0.43%	-0.16%
AGG	99.55	-0.52	-0.52%	-0.49%	0.11%	0.02%	-1.08%	1.28%	1.77%	0.10%
TLT	88.42	-1.17	-1.31%	-0.51%	0.99%	0.17%	-3.66%	3.05%	6.22%	0.18%
IEF	82.39	-0.63	-0.76%	-0.57%	0.32%	-0.25%	-1.80%	1.54%	2.86%	0.09%
TIP	99.58	-0.51	-0.51%	-0.67%	0.36%	-0.81%	-3.36%	-0.72%	0.57%	-3.11%
CFC	37.79	-0.78	-2.02%	-1.33%	7.36%	5.06%	8.09%	2.00%	-5.67%	17.00%
FRE	67.97	0.06	0.09%	-1.64%	-0.66%	1.00%	4.09%	18.13%	10.25%	12.50%
FNM	58.30	-0.12	-0.21%	-1.88%	-1.05%	1.16%	19.61%	22.89%	14.83%	23.88%

How soon they forget about inflation -- A week ago I wrote: "Countrywide Financial (CFC) was up an astounding +8.8-pct W/W, but over 4-weeks it's only up +9.3-pct and over 3-months, it's just +9.4-pct. So CFC basically made its quarter this week. I guess Countrywide doesn't hold the mortgages, so the income can be tracked to building permits. If that's the case, maybe an expert can let us know."

Somebody wrote me to say that permits are one thing but falling rates is more important.

Table 11 actually shows how traders in Countrywide Financial (CFC) have been counting on Uncle Ben Bernanke to start dropping the FED rate sooner than later. On Friday, the econ data says (loud and clear): Later.

Ergo, CFC drops -2.2 pct on the day, leaving the stock down -1.33 pct W/W.

This is just a friendly reminder that these mortgage companies need Uncle Ben more than Ben needs them. He's got his own problems with a weak $USD to take care of first. If inflation hits, those homeowners won't be able to pay their increased mortgages, or the higher property taxes, or fuel up their auto's to get to work. Some might even take to living in those autos and forget the home.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

The $CRB index dropped -0.79 pct W/W to close at 309.91, but was up Friday (oil) by +0.74 pct.

The 50-day Moving Average is presently 309.49, so Friday's upward move crossed up through it. Unfortunately for commodity bulls, the more important 200-day MA is at 332.79, and I don't think we're likely to see $80 oil any time soon, so I just forget this index.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Oil:

Speaking of oil, and Nigeria (or Iran or Iraq or BP safety measures or ;) the $WTIC jumped up +2.18 pct on Friday, which saved the index (of near Crude Oil futures) from sinking more than the -2.65 pct it did this week, closing at 59.14.

Read that 59, as in below 60.

For $WTIC, the 50-Day Moving Average is 62.76, while the 200-Day MA is 67.88. This is the technical resistance (the old support when prices were higher) level to watch.

I don't see oil prices collapsing, which would help keep the housing bubble from popping.

I am sticking to my Stagflation/Reflation perspective until the econ data tells me otherwise. That means I expect to see Crude Oil stay in the 55-65 trading range.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

Today, the 50-day MA for $GOLD is 597.67 and the 200-day MA is at 604.58. And the current price ($629.20) is now sitting well above these technically important levels thanks to a boost of $28.20 (+4.69 pct) this week.

A week ago it was well below the 200-day MA and traders seemed to be indifferent.

What I wrote, however, was: "But, if I'm right, the secular and cyclical Bull phase will soon extend and push prices further north. While the bullion/futures battle goes on, I "continue to believe that the next Bull phase in the gold market will be on the back of a sliding $USD, and that $GOLD will move back over $700, and probably (as I see it) over $800. I also see that happening sooner than later " say within 12 months. That's because of demand-supply economics, as I have explained in previous WIR's."

You see, gold miners produce much less supply that people want for investment (paper money hedging) and jewellery manufacturing purposes. And do you know the killer here, it's only a matter of time before the few central banks that have much physical gold left come to realize that 2.5 billion middle-class Chinese and Indian people want more than they can sell.

Unfortunately, central banks keep printing money at a much faster rate than real wealth is created. Ergo, precious metal prices will go north. Not straight up, but this was a week where some people were starting to think that way.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER had a very good week also, rising +4.59 pct to 12.64.

The 50-day MA $SILVER is 11.75 and the 200-day MA is 11.47. So the current price (12.64) is WELL ABOVE both the 50/200-day MA.

Three weeks ago, I pointed out it had moved above the 200-day MA, which I said was clearly important.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT didn't just have a great week, it had a Whole Foods Markets week in reverse, going up $129.80 (+12.02 pct) W/W to 1209.40.

The 50-Day MA is now 1149.74 and the 200-Day MA is 1153.28, so the current price (1209.40) is WELL ABOVE both the 50/200-day MA.

You might say that technical resistance was taken out like a hot knife through butter.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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This week, $PALL gained 12.26 (+3.78 pct W/W) to 336.88. Most of that gain was made on Friday (+2.53 pct).

The 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages are 324.53 and 326.97 respectively, so $PALL (336.88) is also WELL ABOVE both the 50/200-day MA.
What a difference a week makes.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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A week ago, $COPPER lost -3.24 pct, and this week the loss was a further -2.42 pct, closing at 332.25.

The 50-day MA is 342.01, and the 200-Day MA is 310.77, so $COPPER (332.25) is no longer clearly in a technical Bull phase like the precious metals.

But, as I say, "Generally, I think the enormous growth in the emerging markets will continue to place more demand on the copper market than the miners can meet with supply. So I am a long-term Bull on copper."

I'm also a Bull on Nickel and Uranium. However, the slowing economy (U.S. GDP at probably less than +1.0 pct growth rate, and likely soon going recessive) is clearly affecting these industrial and base metals prices and oil prices in the short-run.

Uranium is something I wrote about this week. To reiterate: I'm bullish, but my finger is on the sell button because it's a market set by private vested interests, and one that in the long-run will track oil prices, which I don't see rallying much from here.

I also see lots of supply coming onstream, let's say a little faster than the ramp up growth in nuclear power reactors.

I'm bullish; I just urge caution. Too many traders are talking $100, $150, $200 uranium prices. Check to see what it was three years ago when oil prices were lower.

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Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GG	26.78	0.59	2.25%	7.08%	15.78%	23.01%	10.66%	-11.50%	-29.10%	35.32%
MDG	25.79	0.59	2.34%	6.88%	7.28%	6.61%	7.64%	-6.93%	-24.12%	37.47%
AEM	38.08	0.65	1.74%	6.82%	16.81%	27.79%	72.78%	3.87%	3.00%	178.16%
GLG	45.07	1.09	2.48%	6.78%	16.97%	23.75%	51.50%	19.08%	11.56%	116.37%
BVN	26.98	0.18	0.67%	4.45%	6.85%	9.72%	-8.73%	-7.92%	-3.33%	3.29%
GFI	17.47	0.18	1.04%	4.42%	3.01%	-2.18%	-9.34%	-19.60%	-31.08%	30.76%
KGC	13.26	0.10	0.76%	4.25%	8.42%	13.53%	34.07%	12.76%	5.32%	92.45%
NEM	46.15	0.24	0.52%	4.13%	8.69%	11.12%	-19.23%	-11.91%	-17.71%	8.56%
ABX	30.87	0.00	0.00%	3.21%	2.83%	5.86%	7.11%	-3.02%	-0.52%	23.48%
LIHRY	40.75	0.34	0.84%	0.02%	-10.54%	-7.20%	17.50%	0.59%	-13.85%	70.64%

A week ago, I wrote: "Interestingly, as metals prices softened a bit, and are right at technical support levels, the share prices of metals producers had another very good week. It's quite possible that money will come out of the techs and commercial banks and go into the metal stocks, where the producers are producing less than demand, and profits are rising quickly."

I didn't think it would happen all at once! (smiley goes here)

Table 12 shows some terrific price moves, which validates my extreme position and writing in the past few weeks.

Other than the fact that Goldcorp-Glamis shares will likely to continue lifting now that the Ontario court has rejected the McEwen appeal for a shareholder vote, I don't have much to add. I suspect these shares will continue to rise, giving Rob McEwen the opportunity to sell his 1.5 pct holding into strength.

It will be interesting to see where those funds are earmarked. Not knowing the decision, which didn't happen until after the close on Friday (a business day before the court had indicated), I gave Rob some good ideas. He was kind enough to refrain from telling me his people were all over those.

But you can't keep an old Dream Merchant down forever, I guess.

In any event, I'll try to upload more of these research reports because I think they help keep traders onside. There is a lot of b.s. in the PM business, so you have to have your feet firmly grounded in reality.

BTW, I read that Pierre Lassonde has resigned the Presidency of Newmont (to become Vice-Chairman), and he'll be returning to Toronto to live, and putting in about 25 pct of his time on Newmont matters. His protégé David Harquil has done a very impressive job with the Newmont Capital subco and will likely become the next Pres. I like Pierre's line: "They elevated three Executive Vice-Presidents to replace me." That line always works. The addendum of course is that they all have hair, at this point.

So I wonder what company Pierre will pop up in next. Like with McEwen, you want to follow the money and the track record. You bet the jockey. They always lead you to the best horse.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

A week ago, $XAU popped from 128.79 to 133.02, which is a gain of +3.28 pct W/W. This week, it went a further +4.76 pct to close at 139.35.

The 50/200-day MA's are 132.37 and 139.58, so the miners' shares are now marginally below their 200-day MA.

GDX was up +5.3 pct W/W after a week of being up +3.0 pct, closing this week at 38.80.

GDX was up +6.4 pct W/W after a week of being up +3.1 pct, closing this week at 76.81.

I mentioned something two weeks ago about not being "scared". As I say, "Experienced traders can do well, but there will be days;" This was a second straight week of good days.

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Forex:

Traders are wondering how the $USD can hold up when other central banks are raising, and the Fed looked certain to start lowering.

From Econoday:

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"Last week was marked by both Bank of Japan and European Central Bank meetings. While the Bank of Japan said that prices are expected to continue to increase and they would increase interest rates eventually, the ECB president used his code words 'strong vigilance', virtually ensuring an increase at their December meeting. In Europe, economic news was basically positive while in the U.S. the data were mixed.

This week includes meetings by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England. Analysts think it is likely that both banks will increase interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent and 5 percent respectively. Analysts will continue to mull the U.S. employment report and perhaps revise their outlook for the fourth quarter."

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As I say: "The PM complex is going to hold up well as long as the $USD doesn't."

This week, up until Friday morning anyway, everything was going my way. The $USD was suffering another bad week, and then out came the U.S. Jobs Report, and the busy minds and computers of Wall Street started coming to a conclusion (maybe too hastily) that the $USD was not going down because the Fed was now likely to pause in dropping rates.

Wow. What a turnaround. The $USD rallied +0.42 pct on the day, leaving it up modestly +0.21 pct W/W to 85.71

The 50-Day MA is now 85.88 and the 200-Day MA is 86.92. So, the $USD is still below the 50-day and 200-day MA technical resistance.

Silver traded down a bit on Friday as a result, and Gold was muted; but next week it all starts over.

Ben Bernanke is taking his money aggregates speech to Frankfurt, where if he gives anybody a peak at his hidden M3 a gold run is likely to start.

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Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro (priced in USD) lost a modest -0.13 pct W/W to close at 127.18 thanks to its loss of -0.50 pct on Friday.

I continue to say: "I still think the Euro will get to 130 and beyond". The European Central Bank did not raise this week, but the guidance it gave was unmistakeable. It is likely to raise in December.

The British Pound was up again, gaining +0.26 pct to close at 190.14.

The CAD and the JPY lost -0.91 pct and -0.34 pct respectively. The Canadian government made a startling statement and policy reversal on the Income Trusts, which was not received well by foreigners (as well as Canadians), who decided to sell the Loonie.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equities:

As I continue to say, it is extremely important for traders to see critical support levels because I feel that when they are violated on the downside, there is going to be a lot of pain in the average (bullish, long-oriented) portfolio. Similar to 2000-2002. Maybe even like 1987, heaven forbid.

As I wrote previously, "Traders can take a Bullish action with a Bearish attitude, you know. At times, it is needed, so you don't become complacent. This is one of those times."

The international markets are the key to your confidence level. If, as and when they fall through technical support, along with the U.S. equity markets, then you are going to have to face some serious decisions: Hold or Sell.

Most people cannot bring themselves to sell, so I'm trying to build a case for helping all traders to get over the psychological hump.

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I have also been pointing readers to the Weekly International Perspective at Econoday, which is a good read " just not as good after the excellent Evelina Tainer departed.

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FXI	86.92	0.42	0.49%	2.92%	2.31%	5.87%	37.99%	10.94%	8.41%	45.59%
EWZ	42.89	0.69	1.64%	2.49%	4.03%	7.87%	23.14%	8.01%	-5.38%	30.76%
EWU	22.97	-0.05	-0.22%	0.61%	0.83%	4.17%	19.89%	6.74%	6.20%	21.47%
EWC	24.91	0.21	0.85%	-0.16%	2.43%	5.69%	10.96%	3.10%	-0.16%	21.22%
IEV	100.08	-0.42	-0.42%	-0.21%	0.65%	3.30%	19.90%	7.39%	6.70%	25.98%
TRF	67.87	0.57	0.85%	-0.56%	-0.77%	2.76%	25.69%	-1.71%	-28.72%	31.35%
QQQQ	41.93	-0.11	-0.26%	-0.66%	-0.17%	1.26%	1.50%	12.93%	1.06%	4.98%
SPY	136.54	-0.24	-0.18%	-0.99%	-0.22%	1.13%	7.77%	6.32%	4.32%	11.67%
EWJ	13.71	-0.07	-0.51%	-1.51%	-0.58%	0.07%	-1.72%	1.11%	-8.90%	10.92%
IFN	45.87	0.26	0.57%	-3.02%	-2.26%	4.49%	11.15%	17.56%	-26.00%	22.19%

Japan's Nikkei225 and Topix both dropped -1.9 pct this week, with the annual YTD change being +1.5 pct and -1.9 pct respectively.

The South Korean Kospi is also up a paltry amount for the YTD (+0.3 pct), although up this week (+1.1 pct).

Big movers on the upside this week and YTD are Hong Kong's Heng Seng (+2.5 pct /+26.0 pct YTD) and the Mexico Bolsa (+1.8 pct/+30.1 pct YTD).

The majority of indexes were down this week but all but the Kospi were up for October.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), closed at 13.71, down -1.51 pct W/W, including -0.51 pct on Friday.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Monthly data:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) was up +0.61 pct on the week to 22.97, but it was again bent like Beckham (down -0.22 pct) on Friday.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Monthly data:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC of Canada had a modest loss of 4 cents (-0.16 pct W/W) to close at 24.91, after having a couple really good weeks.

There was a lot of turmoil in this market during the week after the Minister of Finance abruptly announced a tax structure to be imposed on previously untaxed income trusts.
But Friday, EWC was up +0.85 pct on the day.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Monthly data:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

The S&P500, DJIA, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were all down, -0.95 pct, -0.86 pct, -0.84 pct, and -1.71 pct respectively.

On Friday they were down (respectively) "0.22 pct, -0.27 pct, and -0.14 pct, but the Russell small cap index was up +0.35 pct, possibly as a short-covering exercise from an over-sold condition.

Once again, the higher-beta Small Cap issues took most of the heat, but there were pockets of strength in the Nasdaq composite.

As I wrote last week: "We always have to keep our eye on where the most solid ground is. In technical trading jargon, that happens to be the support lines.

If, as and when the major MA lines and chart pattern lines get violated, you have to seriously consider selling out of pre-selected long positions that are most vulnerable to a major market pullback, or at least hedging those positions."

Remember, we trade prices. Watch the tape. Watch the technical support.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MSFT	28.73	-0.01	-0.03%	1.34%	1.06%	3.05%	7.04%	18.62%	24.00%	8.66%
XOM	72.15	0.96	1.35%	0.97%	3.74%	6.86%	23.40%	5.53%	13.14%	23.19%
GM	34.23	-0.43	-1.24%	0.88%	2.67%	10.24%	81.11%	9.71%	52.20%	28.64%
IBM	91.41	-0.27	-0.29%	0.72%	1.03%	9.95%	11.39%	19.76%	10.53%	10.31%
AA	28.49	-0.01	-0.04%	0.67%	3.75%	2.70%	-4.72%	-3.75%	-15.51%	13.37%
DIS	31.89	0.19	0.60%	0.50%	1.40%	1.75%	30.70%	6.16%	13.45%	28.07%
HD	37.20	0.00	0.00%	0.35%	3.36%	0.16%	-9.80%	7.61%	-7.85%	-8.80%
BA	79.97	0.77	0.97%	0.29%	-2.17%	-4.43%	13.69%	0.72%	-6.87%	22.09%
PG	63.40	0.13	0.21%	-0.25%	1.15%	0.49%	7.86%	6.64%	12.77%	13.30%
AXP	57.06	-0.40	-0.70%	-0.37%	-1.69%	0.83%	8.52%	9.46%	8.93%	14.74%
MMM	78.58	-0.30	-0.38%	-0.47%	0.14%	3.46%	-0.67%	13.42%	-8.52%	4.58%
JNJ	67.81	-0.09	-0.13%	-0.53%	-1.18%	4.23%	10.03%	7.50%	16.21%	10.80%
MCD	41.24	-0.81	-1.93%	-0.55%	-0.55%	2.82%	23.03%	15.07%	18.30%	24.10%
HPQ	38.22	-0.37	-0.96%	-0.62%	-2.95%	1.33%	32.85%	17.28%	16.38%	32.99%
KO	46.50	-0.21	-0.45%	-0.79%	-0.53%	3.89%	13.69%	5.63%	10.93%	9.21%
MO	81.18	-0.18	-0.22%	-0.82%	1.90%	3.26%	8.27%	1.26%	11.01%	9.27%
AIG	66.82	0.14	0.21%	-0.85%	0.51%	-0.30%	-4.02%	11.42%	2.78%	1.37%
JPM	46.89	-0.01	-0.02%	-0.85%	-0.49%	0.06%	16.67%	2.69%	3.15%	26.42%
DD	45.08	-0.43	-0.94%	-1.03%	0.24%	0.29%	4.69%	13.15%	0.69%	4.81%
GE	34.77	0.06	0.17%	-1.25%	-1.97%	-3.79%	-1.70%	6.23%	1.08%	2.32%
CAT	60.43	-0.13	-0.21%	-1.37%	2.42%	-11.20%	4.55%	-16.91%	-22.62%	13.00%
HON	41.71	-0.16	-0.38%	-1.39%	0.02%	-1.42%	11.35%	8.28%	-4.58%	17.73%
T	33.72	-0.30	-0.88%	-1.46%	-2.09%	6.10%	36.46%	9.13%	29.74%	43.37%
UTX	63.97	-0.36	-0.56%	-1.49%	-1.61%	-2.20%	13.16%	1.96%	0.96%	24.19%
C	49.59	-0.15	-0.30%	-1.53%	-0.64%	-2.86%	0.61%	2.31%	-0.52%	9.11%
MRK	45.10	-0.30	-0.66%	-2.15%	-1.18%	7.74%	37.71%	8.44%	32.06%	52.99%
PFE	26.55	-0.14	-0.52%	-2.46%	-4.08%	-4.84%	11.65%	4.08%	5.48%	21.40%
INTC	20.51	-0.17	-0.82%	-2.80%	-3.93%	-0.68%	-19.79%	18.15%	7.05%	-14.15%
VZ	36.70	-0.29	-0.78%	-5.51%	-2.91%	-0.27%	20.80%	9.58%	12.44%	19.04%
WMT	47.53	-0.76	-1.57%	-6.31%	-3.73%	-1.63%	2.81%	6.26%	1.80%	0.17%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

---

---

This week Value Line analyzed two Dow 30 companies, Altria and Coca-Cola. They recommend KO, but advise proceeding with caution with MO.

With a lower $USD and the majority of its sales abroad, KO shares are aided by a falling $USD.

Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]

(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 3: next one is due Feb. 2)

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]

(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 3: next one is due Feb. 2)

---

Dow 30 list:

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

---

Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 3: next one is due Feb. 2)

---

American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)

---

American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)

---

AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 29: next one is due Dec. 29)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 22: next one is due Dec. 22)

---

Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct. 27: next one is due Jan. 26)

---

Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)

---

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 3: next one is due Feb. 2)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)

---

Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

---

ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 15: next one is due Dec. 15)

---

General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Sep. 1: next one is due Dec. 1)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

---

Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 6: next one is due Jan. 5)

---

Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 27: next one is due Jan. 26)

---

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

---

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 12)

---

Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Sep. 1: next one is due Dec. 1)

---

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24)

---

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 8: next one is due Dec. 8)

---

3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 250 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)

---

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 25: next one is due Nov. 24) >

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 20: next one is due Jan. 19)

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 6: next one is due Jan. 5)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct. 27: next one is due Jan. 26)

---

Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 29: next one is due Dec. 29)

---

Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug. 11: next one is due Nov. 10)

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Wrap up:

I intend to write more about the Canadian Income Trust situation because it is an important topic. I may even do that on Monday.

This week, David Jackson, whose work at Seeking Alpha I think is outstanding, queried me as to fully disclosing personal positions at time of writing for him.

In future, because I wish to help David in any way I can, I will disclose positions on articles of mine he publishes. But I also sent him my policy, as follows:

"My daily trading blog is a personal diary that I publish free for educational and informational purposes on a strictly non-commercial basis to anyone who wants to read it, and it should not be interpreted as directed investment advice. I may hold long or short positions at the time of writing, but I have never published, and will not publish, a single word with the intention of causing readers to advance my profit, directly or indirectly. If, as and when I become registered in any jurisdiction to dispense professional advice to specific clients, or provide commercial services, then I may change my blog publishing policy with respect to identifying specific long/short positions."

Taking time off in the past four days has helped me make a number of decisions. Six years of retirement will come to an end on January 2, 2007. The transition is much harder than I had presumed.

I have been getting closer to the permanent move to Bahamas, where I intend to (i) be registered as an advisor in securities trading, (ii) set up a wealth protection hedge fund that will be listed for trading in North America, (iii) organize my first international conference for around the end of February, and (iv) publish a book in 2007.

It's already November; the winter is approaching. So, I have started the search for a Bahamian Executive Assistant, someone who can help manage this website and blog, which I intend to continue.

Maybe I'll change my style " more laid back; do you think? (lol)

I know some of my critics will be hoping that "It's Better in The Bahamas!" :-)

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BCara@BillCara.com